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Emmanuel Clase

Emmanuel Clase Placed On Administrative Leave Amid MLB’s Sports-Betting Investigation

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Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has been placed on non-disciplinary administrative leave through Aug. 31 as part of Major League Baseball’s ongoing investigation into sports betting, per a league announcement. Clase’s teammate, Luis Ortiz, was the first (and thus far only other) player placed on leave under the ongoing investigation. Clase will continue to be paid while the league looks into any alleged wrongdoing. He will not count against the team’s 40-man roster while on leave. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Clase was being placed on leave shortly prior to MLB’s formal announcement.

“The Guardians have been notified by Major League Baseball that as part of their sports betting investigation Emmanuel Clase has been placed on non-disciplinary paid leave per an agreement with the Players Association,” the team said Monday in a statement. “We have been informed that no additional players or Club personnel are expected to be impacted. The Guardians are not permitted to comment further at this time, and will respect the league’s confidential investigative process as we continue to fully cooperate.”

Clase’s name had surfaced as a potential trade candidate this summer, as several contenders around the league have been weighing a run at impact relievers with multiple years of club control remaining. A trade wasn’t seen as likely, given Clase’s below-market contract and general track record of excellence.

The 27-year-old Clase has pitched 47 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball this year — a “down” season relative to his lofty standards. The right-hander boasts a superlative 1.84 ERA in 336 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. He’s saved 181 games, fanned just under one-quarter of his opponents, issued walks at a tiny 4.8% clip and piled up grounders at an elite 58.5% rate along the way.

Clase signed a five-year, $20MM extension back in April 2022. He’s being paid just $4.5MM this year and has a $6MM guarantee for the 2026 season under the terms of that contract. His extension included a pair of $10MM club options for the 2027-28 seasons, though he’s already maxed out a series of escalators that have pushed the value of each of those options up to $13MM apiece.

The news comes as a notable blow to the Guardians’ already-thin postseason hopes. Cleveland is eight games back of the division-leading Tigers and 3.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot (with three teams to leapfrog). They were already without Ortiz, their fourth starter, due to this ongoing investigation and had lost another rotation member, Ben Lively, to Tommy John surgery. Former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber was targeting a June return but has yet to pitch in the majors after a setback in recovery from his own Tommy John procedure — though he’s on a rehab assignment and on the cusp of a return to the majors.

[Related: Cleveland Guardians Trade Deadline Outlook]

Clase’s bullpen-mate, Cade Smith, figures to take over closing duties for the time being. He’s arguably an even better reliever at this point than Clase is, and Smith himself has received plenty of attention on the summer trade market. As with Clase, a deal has been seen as unlikely, given the 26-year-old righty’s four-plus seasons of remaining club control.

Depending on how one chooses to view the Clase suspension, it could make a Smith trade more or less likely. Smith now becomes an even more focal point in the bullpen and all the more critical to whatever playoff hopes Cleveland has left. At the same time, losing Clase further dampens those postseason odds and could make the Guards more willing to turn the page on the 2025 season and focus more on the future. Smith should be an integral part of that future, but he could also net a legitimate prospect haul if moved in the next three days, potentially adding multiple long-term contributors to the Guards in 2026 and beyond.

Cubs Interested In Emmanuel Clase

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The Cubs are one of the clubs “most actively monitoring” Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. Clase has been recently connected to clubs such as the Dodgers and Phillies in recent weeks. The Cubs were also connected to Clase ahead of the 2024 season.

It’s not a surprise that the Cubs or any other club would be interested in Clase, who has been one of the best closers in the sport for a few years now. From 2021 to the present, he has 180 saves for Cleveland, the most of anyone in the majors for that span. He has a 1.77 earned run average in that time. His 24.9% strikeout rate is only a bit above average, unusual for a closer. However, his 4.7% walk rate and 58.4% ground ball rate are both strong figures.

In addition to the results, his contract is very favorable. He has a $4.5MM salary this year and will make $6MM next year. He then has a pair of $13MM options with $2MM buyouts. In free agency, top closers like Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader have been able to secure average annual values around $20MM. Clase’s deal therefore has heaps of surplus value.

However, that also makes him very valuable to a low-payroll club like the Guardians. They are reportedly willing to listen to offers but that doesn’t mean they’re pushing him out the door. A recent four-game winning streak has pulled them to 51-50 and just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. Their pre-deadline schedule is on the softer side. They’re playing the Orioles today, followed three games in Kansas City and three games in Cleveland against the Rockies.

Perhaps the Guardians can pull themselves out of seller position and into buyer mode, which may or may not impact Clase’s availability. It’s possible to imagine them doing some selling but holding Clase or trading him while still hoping to compete. The Guardians are often willing to walk a buy/sell tightrope, balancing their current and future needs. The decision is presumably dependent on what kinds of offers they receive. They have other strong relievers, including Cade Smith, so it’s possible they view a Clase trade as something that could upgrade another part of the roster without significantly hurting the bullpen. Then again, there is no rush to flip him if they’re not bowled over by an offer.

For the Cubs, it’s easy to see the appeal. They are one of the best teams in baseball and clearly in buyer mode this year. Elite relievers take on outsized importance in the playoffs, where off-days make it possible for them to impact almost every game.

The club’s relief corps has a collective 3.78 ERA, which puts them 10th in the majors. Daniel Palencia is doing a good job as the closer but adding Clase and moving everyone else down a peg on the depth chart would make the whole group stronger.

Pulling off a trade of Clase would require the club to part with some notable pieces to make it worth Cleveland’s while, though perhaps the Cubs are willing to do so. They already showed an all-in mentality in the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason and could perhaps keep the foot on the gas pedal. The Cubs have some notable outfield prospects, including Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, which is an area of ongoing concern in Cleveland. It’s unclear if the Cubs would be willing to include any players like that for a bullpen upgrade. They have long-term outfield questions of their own, as Tucker is an impending free agent while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are slated for free agency after 2026.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Dodgers Pursuing High-End Bullpen Upgrades

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The Dodgers are known to be in the market for bullpen help after injuries to Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen have thinned their relief corps. They’re focused on several of the market’s most high-profile names, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who reports that L.A. has inquired on Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, Pirates closer David Bednar, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley and Orioles closer Felix Bautista (in addition to previously reported interest in Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax).

Los Angeles was active on the relief market over the winter, signing Tanner Scott to a four-year deal, Treinen to a two-year contract and Kirby Yates to a one-year pact. Neither Scott (4.00 ERA) nor Yates (4.08) have performed up to expectations, however, and Yates has also missed some time due to a hamstring strain (though he’s been healthy for the past month and a half). Dodgers relievers rank 24th in the majors with a 4.38 earned run average, and they’re at an ugly 5.28 mark over the past month.

Of the names listed, Bednar is the likeliest to change hands. The Pirates, in last place in the NL Central, were swept by the White Sox this weekend and are surefire sellers. Bednar is earning $5.9MM this year and is owed one final raise in arbitration this winter before becoming a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. The 30-year-old struggled through a down season in 2024 and pitched poorly enough early in 2025 to be optioned to Triple-A; he’s been in vintage form since returning from a brief two-week demotion.

Over his past 31 innings, Bednar boasts a 1.74 ERA with a massive 36.4% strikeout rate against a 5.8% walk rate. He’s currently in a 17 1/3-inning streak without allowing an earned run — his last earned run was on May 24 — and has posted a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio in that time. Pirates ownership has reportedly nixed some trade talks on Bednar, a Pittsburgh native, in the past. That’s not expected to be the case this time around.

Helsley has a good chance of moving as well. The Cardinals dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break and are three back in the NL Wild Card chase. They’ve outperformed all expectations this season after an offseason of inactivity, but they entered the season expecting this to be a transition year as their baseball operations staff turns over. If the Cards win several games in a row and nudge further up the standings, they could wind up hanging onto Helsley, whom Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently highlighted as a potential qualifying offer candidate. Nightengale writes that the Cards don’t plan on making a QO to Helsley, though that could simply indicate there are differing opinions within the front office on whether that’d be prudent.

Helsley, 31, certainly makes sense as a potential QO candidate. He’s been among the best relievers in the National League over the past four seasons, working to a combined 2.06 ERA with 101 saves. This year’s numbers have dipped a bit. He’s sitting on a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. It’s still  a strong performance overall, but not up to the lofty standards he’d set from 2022-24. He’ll still command sizable interest — Nightengale writes that five contenders have been in touch with the Cardinals about him — and should be able to net the Cardinals greater value  (and certainly more MLB-ready talent) than they’d net with a compensatory draft pick if Helsley rejected his QO and signed elsewhere.

The other relievers highlighted are less likely to be traded. Cleveland is reportedly listening on Clase and teammate Cade Smith, but both players will have exorbitant asking prices. Clase is signed cheaply through 2026 and has a pair of affordable club options. Bautista is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and 2027, and the Orioles are far likelier to trade short-term rentals than players controlled multiple years beyond the current season. Both Duran and Jax are controlled through 2027 as well, and the Twins are still on the fringes of the AL Wild Card race as well.

Guardians Listening To Offers On Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith

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The Guardians are listening to offers on their relievers, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That includes a willingness to discuss their star back-end duo of Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, Heyman adds, though he unsurprisingly notes that the asking price is high enough that a trade of either pitcher remains a long shot.

Teams are generally willing to field offers on almost every player. That’s particularly true for small-market clubs that are constantly trying to balance the short term and the future. It’s only sensible the Guards would hear other teams out on Clase and Smith. Teams are willing to pay a premium for relievers at the deadline. That’d be all the more true for late-game arms who are cheaply controllable for multiple seasons.

Clase is playing on a $4.5MM salary and will make $6MM next year. Cleveland has a pair of club options covering the 2027-28 seasons. Those respectively came with $10MM base salaries, though Clase has since escalated their value to $11.5MM annually by twice winning the American League Reliever of the Year award and by surpassing 200 appearances over the past three-plus seasons. He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if he’s traded.

That’s well below market value for a pitcher of Clase’s caliber. He’s a much better pitcher than Tanner Scott, who signed for four years and a little over $60MM in net present value as last winter’s top free agent reliever. Clase is controllable for his age 27-30 seasons. There’s a chance he’d get into nine figures if he were a free agent.

Clase was MLB’s best reliever in 2024. He surrendered just five earned runs in 74 1/3 innings and went 47-50 in save opportunities. He had an ugly postseason performance but that came in a total of eight innings. Clase is putting together another excellent regular season this year. He has fired 44 innings of 2.86 ERA ball while going 21-25 in save chances. His 23.4% strikeout rate is essentially league average, but he has never been a huge strikeout artist. Clase excels with plus command and movement on his 99 MPH cutter, which hitters very rarely square up.

[Related: Cleveland Guardians Deadline Outlook]

Smith, 26, had a breakout rookie season to emerge as Cleveland’s top setup man. He turned in a 1.91 ERA with a near-36% strikeout rate through 75 1/3 innings a year ago. Smith’s ERA has backed up to a less impressive (though still strong) 3.07 mark across 41 frames this season. He’s striking out 35% of opponents behind a gaudy 15.1% swinging strike rate. The 6’5″ righty has a 96 MPH heater and a plus splitter. Smith is still a season and a half from reaching arbitration and is under club control for four and a half seasons.

There’s virtually no chance the Guardians would trade both relievers. If they were to move Clase, it’d be largely driven by the belief that Smith would be an elite closer in his own right. It’s even tougher to see them pulling the trigger on a Smith deal when he’ll play for barely above the league minimum for the next year and a half. The Guardians have a few lower-profile relievers (e.g. Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski) who could also draw some attention. They’d certainly listen on veteran righty and impending free agent Paul Sewald, but he just landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain that could keep him out beyond the deadline.

An openness to discussing Clase and Smith doesn’t signify that Cleveland is a guaranteed seller. They’re 4.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot. They have one of the easiest second-half schedules of any team, including four series against clubs with losing records (A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies) up to the deadline. There’s a path to getting back in the race and hoping that an excellent back of the bullpen can return them to the ALCS and beyond.

Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

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The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

AL Notes: Mangum, Lewis, Clase

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The Rays announced today that outfielder Jake Mangum has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left groin strain. Infielder Coco Montes has been recalled from Triple-A Durham as the corresponding move.

It’s an unfortunate blow for the Rays. Mangum came into this season with no major league experience but is currently sporting a strong line of .338/.384/.397 in his first 73 plate appearances. Losing that production would be unwelcome at any time but it’s especially tough for the Rays given their other outfield injuries. Mangum joins Josh Lowe, Jonny DeLuca and Richie Palacios on the IL.

For now, the Rays are left with an outfield mix consisting of Chandler Simpson, Kameron Misner, Christopher Morel and José Caballero. Simpson and Misner each have less than 30 games of major league experience while Morel and Caballero have more experience in the outfield than the infield.

Some more notes from around the American League…

  • Twins infielder Royce Lewis is on the IL with a hamstring strain but will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Saint Paul tomorrow, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. That’s good news for the Twins since they’ve been hit hard by injuries, particularly on the infield. Willi Castro joined Lewis on the IL earlier today. José Miranda and Austin Martin are both injured in the minors. Carlos Correa has also been dealing with a wrist issue, though he has not landed on the IL. Getting Lewis back into the mix would be a nice boost for a club that is floundering. They lost today’s game to the White Sox to fall to 9-16.
  • Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase hasn’t quite been himself lately and it might be because he’s not 100% healthy. Manager Stephen Vogt recently told Zack Meisel of The Athletic that Clase had some shoulder discomfort on Sunday. He has a 7.84 earned run average this year, which is miles away from the 0.61 ERA he posted last year. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates have all moved in the wrong direction. The shoulder issue perhaps provides an explanation for his struggles but obviously raises the question of what comes next and whether he can get back on track.

Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.

Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.

Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.

This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.

Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.

Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.

While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.

The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Cubs Continuing Search For Bullpen Help

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Bolstering the relief corps is “a focus” for the Cubs, writes Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. They’ve shown interest in Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase, Levine adds.

Almost every team probably has some degree of interest in Clase. He has led MLB in saves and games finished in each of the last two seasons. The 25-year-old righty has made the All-Star Game in consecutive years. He has essentially been an elite reliever from the time Cleveland was able to put him on the mound.

Cleveland acquired Clase in what turned out to be a very lopsided trade sending former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to the Rangers during the 2019-20 offseason. His tenure with the club couldn’t have begun much worse, as Clase was suspended for the shortened season after a failed PED test. Once he took the Progressive Field mound, he was dominant. The fireballing righty turned in a 1.29 ERA over 69 2/3 frames as a rookie.

The Guardians signed Clase to a $20MM extension the following April. He responded with a 1.36 ERA over a league-leading 77 appearances. Clase’s numbers took a step back last season, as he allowed 3.22 earned runs per nine. After running a 27.5% strikeout rate between 2021-22, he fanned a slightly below-average 21.2% of hitters last year. Ground-ball rates that had sat north of 60% in each of his first two years in Cleveland dropped, albeit to a still excellent 55% clip.

Even if Clase wasn’t quite as dominant last season, he’s still one of the best relievers in the game. His primary pitch, his cutter, averages more than 99 MPH. He’s one of the sport’s top ground-ball pitchers and rarely issues free passes.

The contract only adds to the appeal. Clase will make just $2.5MM next season. He’s due respective $4.5MM and $6MM salaries in 2025-26. The deal contains $10.5MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) covering 2027-28, although he’s likely to escalate the value of those options to $13MM apiece. He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. That’s nevertheless affordable enough to comfortably fit in the budget for any team, including the Guardians, at least for the next three seasons.

That seemingly makes it a long shot Cleveland pulls the trigger on a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported shortly before the Winter Meetings the Guardians were open to offers, however. They’d presumably only do so for a package built around multiple top prospects given Clase’s ceiling and five years of club control.

Clase is one of a number of possibilities. Top free agent reliever Josh Hader remains unsigned. So does Robert Stephenson, arguably the top righty reliever in this year’s class (and a player in whom the Cubs have shown interest). Hector Neris and Phil Maton are solid middle relief options.

A run at anyone in that group would require a pivot from the Cubs’ general approach to the relief corps. Chicago has shied away from notable free agent investments since their signing of Craig Kimbrel. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Cubs haven’t guaranteed more than one year or $5MM to a free agent bullpen arm over the past five offseasons.

Hoyer spoke generally about that reluctance to commit top dollar in the relief corps. “The elite, elite closer, the leverage they pitch in can make a difference,” he said (via Levine). “But the bullpen performances are the most volatile on the baseball field. … The pen is a higher volatility and aggression area. So you want to put your dollars to use in the areas you are most certain about.”

That could point to a preference to add to the group via trade if possible. The bullpen and third base are potential targets a month from Spring Training. At least week’s Cubs Convention, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer downplayed the chances of signing another starter after the four-year deal for Shota Imanaga (link via Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic).

Hoyer and skipper Craig Counsell have each suggested trade pickup Michael Busch could address their first base vacancy (link from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). If the Cubs are content with Christopher Morel at designated hitter and the combination of Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong to handle center field, that leaves the hot corner and bullpen as the biggest areas of concern.

Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels

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The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.

RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.

With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.

Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.

Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.

That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.

Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.

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