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MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2023 at 10:06am CDT

With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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150 Comments

  1. deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger

    1 year ago

    Too much

    11
    Reply
    • Rsox

      1 year ago

      Agreed, especially for a player with no MLB track record. I remember when the Red Sox signed Dice-K to what was considered then as a ridiculous contract. Sure the first two years were good but it was all downhill from there

      7
      Reply
      • Mystery13

        1 year ago

        Similar age and track record as well

        2
        Reply
        • dirtyjog

          1 year ago

          Similar age yes (Yamamoto will be a year younger), but I think that’s where the comparison stops. Yamamoto has had three straight years of a sub-2 ERA (something Matsuzaka never did in Japan), lower WHIP, higher K/9, lower BB/9 – which is ultimately what did Dice-K in.

          5
          Reply
      • ssowl

        1 year ago

        That was also 17 years ago when scouting wasn’t nearly as advanced. Don’t get me wrong, he could still be a bust, but higher likelihood Yamamoto succeeds.

        6
        Reply
        • Fever Pitch Guy

          1 year ago

          ssow – He could also end up suffering an injury like Tanaka, who was very fortunate to be able to avoid surgery.

          Reply
      • martras

        1 year ago

        Yoshinobu Yamamoto compares more with Yu Darvish than Daisuke Matsuzaka.

        Last 3 seasons
        Yu Darvish – 1.64 ERA, 9.7K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, 0.91 WHIP
        Yamamoto – 1.36 ERA, 9.4K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 6.4 H/9, 0.89 WHIP

        They’re very similar in terms of results, but Darvish was a bit more durable. The Rangers deal with Darvish was pretty successful.as they got 2 years of Darvish as a true front line durable ace starter before injuries took their toll. Darvish remained extremely valuable, but fell into the #2-#3 starter category as he entered his 30s.

        3
        Reply
        • deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger

          1 year ago

          Roki Sasaki is my preferred traget. Imagine how much he can make!

          Reply
        • padrepapi

          1 year ago

          Darvish was also the pitcher that made it to 1500 strikeouts in the fewest starts in MLB history (around 10 starts quicker than Randy Johnson).

          Reply
      • kingbum

        1 year ago

        Yamamoto is the kind of risk you want your franchise to make. You are right, he has no MLB experience, but he is pitching in the 2nd best league in the world. You know the Japanese leagues are very competitive they prove it in the WBC. I don’t think he should be getting the highest paid one-way pitcher mark, but it looks like that’s gonna fall if not by Yamamoto then by Snell.

        2
        Reply
    • Big whiffa

      1 year ago

      There’s never too much for the giants ! I picked plus 350mil and SF

      4
      Reply
      • Sid Bream Speed Demon

        1 year ago

        Same here.

        2
        Reply
      • bag o ballz

        1 year ago

        I picked Giants but a lower value. If the dodgers are grabbing glasnow the Giants need to make the move to keep up and Farhan has been scouting Yamamoto all year, even spent the last week of the npb’s season in japan

        2
        Reply
        • stymeedone

          1 year ago

          He’s not going to sign him, but he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express.

          1
          Reply
    • ws_champs

      1 year ago

      Yamamoto will sign on Dec. 18th and take #18 on the Yankees.

      1
      Reply
    • Guyerbassist

      1 year ago

      Chris young better do something other than a starter that won’t even pitch next year, but will make a nice 11million. You’d think that after seeing that spending does have pretty big impact on winning they would go back out and sing people. So far though nothing… Yes I know we just won the WS. But let’s not waste the time we have with our young guys before they need paid.

      1
      Reply
  2. carlos15

    1 year ago

    Mets give him a $700m deal

    2
    Reply
    • CravenMoorehead

      1 year ago

      Bobby Bonilla contract on HGH

      3
      Reply
      • Mr. E Team

        1 year ago

        Bonilla deal was a good deal for both Bobby and the Mets

        1
        Reply
        • cleonswoboda

          1 year ago

          the Reds are still paying Griffey jr.told Helton is getting paid by the Rockies,Manny Ramierez by the BoSox and a few more,and not just in MLB. deferred make a lot of sense for both the team and the player.

          Reply
      • Whyme

        1 year ago

        People bring keep bringing up a contract that had to do with Bernie Madeoff not baseball.

        Reply
        • CravenMoorehead

          1 year ago

          Appreciate the input Peter Gammons!

          1
          Reply
  3. 10centBeerNight

    1 year ago

    Your guess as good as mine where he goes. Lots of conflicting info out there and it’s probably only a small part of the story. Bet the face to faces will matter a lot more than “iconography”

    2
    Reply
  4. midway_monster85

    1 year ago

    The cubs unwillingness to spend on top tier talent makes me sick. They would rather have 10 15 million a year players than get any elite talent. Seems like as soon as the contract total eclipses 200 mil they say “welp we’re out” and I’m tired of it

    1
    Reply
    • iml12

      1 year ago

      I agree if the right player is available. They were in on ohtani and supposedly had a 575 million dollar offer on the table. There is only about 10 players in the entire league that seem worth one of these long expensive contracts. The vast majority are just going to backfire. Yamamoto is 25 but hasn’t thrown an inning in the majors. A 10 year 300 million dollar contract seems insane. I’d much rather have a sure thing of solid production, like Montgomery, for half the years and half the price. Montgomery could easily be the better pitcher for the next 5 years, easily.

      3
      Reply
    • Sid Bream Speed Demon

      1 year ago

      Didn’t they just sign Dansby and Suzuki in the last two seasons?

      4
      Reply
      • midway_monster85

        1 year ago

        Both contracts under 200 mil. To be top 5 in revenue and to get out bid by teams worth half of what you are is insane. Swanson was the 4th best ss available last offseason don’t fool yourself, and Suzuki is a 15 mil a year guy. Where is our elite talent? We don’t have a 3 or a 4 hole hitter

        Reply
  5. AmericanRedneck

    1 year ago

    I want the Yankees to sign him, I believe the Mets or Dodgers will.

    3
    Reply
    • bullred

      1 year ago

      The Jankees really need him as they don’t have much else in their rotation. Cole then hopes and dreams. They need someone young.

      1
      Reply
  6. KC42

    1 year ago

    One of the big factors will be posting fee, How many teams can afford that? Dodgers, Giants, Mets, I feel are the most believable. Dont see the Red Sox new GM splurging like that in Year 1 and the Blue Jays have to figure out extensions for Vlad and Bichette down the line.

    Reply
    • Poolhalljunkies

      1 year ago

      This signing will have little to do with the gm level..300.mil plus posting is an ownership decsision so your comment on the red sox gm doesnt really hold water in this instance ..you think theo made the call to pay the 51 mil posting fee for dicek?.
      No that was john henry all day

      Reply
  7. Gwynning

    1 year ago

    You’re going to love San Diego, Yamamoto-san!

    6
    Reply
    • User 401527550

      1 year ago

      San Diego can’t afford to keep their own players never mind anything new.

      6
      Reply
      • oldguyG

        1 year ago

        Thanks Bally and MLB

        1
        Reply
    • UncommonSense

      1 year ago

      He would fit in great in San Diego, wouldn’t he?

      2
      Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      1 year ago

      He may, but it will be such a short stay for the series he may not get out much. However, in his new home base of NYC, he will get all the entertainment he needs.

      2
      Reply
      • Gwynning

        1 year ago

        I’ve never wanted to fight you, Clip… until now. Happy Holidays amigo =)

        2
        Reply
  8. VonPurpleHayes

    1 year ago

    I thought Mets all the way, but Ohtani’s deferrals make me assume Dodgers.

    4
    Reply
    • User 401527550

      1 year ago

      The Mets owner personally flying to Japan makes me think he he will be a Met no matter what.

      4
      Reply
      • VonPurpleHayes

        1 year ago

        From my understanding, Cashman has seen him in Japan in the past. I’m sure Cohen’s visit means something, but he isn’t the only one to do it.

        4
        Reply
        • Jean Matrac

          1 year ago

          Zaidi also scouted him in Japan.

          Reply
        • Cohn Joppolella

          1 year ago

          I’ve been to Japan too.

          4
          Reply
        • Fever Pitch Guy

          1 year ago

          Jean – Red Sox scouted him in Japan too.

          “Boston was one of eight teams who sent scouts to watch Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s most recent start according to Hochi News.”

          1
          Reply
        • Ma4170

          1 year ago

          Again, owner visiting carries much more weight than a GM, particularly in japanese culture

          1
          Reply
        • kingbum

          1 year ago

          This right here…it’s a respect thing in Japanese culture. Cohen going personally is showing Yamamoto respect and that is huge in their culture. Cohen knows Japanese culture apparently and it pains me, I’m a Red Sox fan

          Reply
        • stymeedone

          1 year ago

          Even in Japanese culture, $$$$$ carries more weight than who visited.

          1
          Reply
        • astromets

          1 year ago

          Hard to say this without sounding biased given my username, but even ignoring the owner going vs. the gm going vs. scouts going, going to visit him and his family in the offseason is different and presumably more impactful than scouting him while he does his job.

          That said, bringing him in for a stadium visit with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman a week after stunning the baseball world by winning the Ohtani contract is nooooot a bad starting point for recruitment.

          Reply
        • Jean Matrac

          1 year ago

          He also has an American agent advising him on American culture. It’s possible that agent said Cohen’s visit while respectful, was more about a strong desire to sign Yamamoto than it was about respect.

          Agree that the Dodgers’ contingent had to have impressed Yamamoto greatly. Hearing that makes me think the Dodgers increased their chances to land him.

          Reply
    • UncommonSense

      1 year ago

      I wonder if that’s why the Mets got rid of their expensive pitching halfway through last year because they saw the need for this signing

      Reply
    • rct

      1 year ago

      Yep. Totally agree. Was thinking Mets all the way. For a day or two after they got Soto, I thought the Yankees might swoop in and grab him. But in the wake of Ohtani’s deal, I would bet hard on the Dodgers.

      1
      Reply
      • Ma4170

        1 year ago

        Im still thinking mets. And if dodgers grab glasnow, I’m leaning mets even more.

        Reply
  9. baseballpun

    1 year ago

    Are we talking about the number reported or the Present Value? Because we’re not supposed to look at the actual cash paid out anymore, I guess.

    7
    Reply
  10. scottn59c

    1 year ago

    If the Giants want him, they’re going to have to emphatically outbid the Dodgers (and other suitors) and not just quietly agree to match numbers.

    3
    Reply
  11. Reggie Smith

    1 year ago

    I dont see why anyone would think the Dodgers are going to sign the 1st and 3rd biggest name on the Market. In the past 6 years (as far as I cared to go back), no team has signed 2 of the Top 5 FAs on the market. Its just makes no sense to commit so much money in one year.

    4
    Reply
    • Bucket Number Six

      1 year ago

      Strat-O-Matic

      5
      Reply
      • cleonswoboda

        1 year ago

        for $25 you can get the whole 2023 Angels team in Strat-O-Matic

        2
        Reply
  12. Old York

    1 year ago

    Given the ridiculous amount spent on the Korean player and the money being throw around for Ohtani, I can see him getting somewhere in the range of $325-$350M.

    3
    Reply
  13. steelehere83

    1 year ago

    What’s the prediction for net present value dollars on his contract?

    2
    Reply
    • Big whiffa

      1 year ago

      Ah ! I see u neglected to read the article

      Reply
      • steelehere83

        1 year ago

        There’s a poll for net present value dollars on his contract? I thought the poll was for dollars regardless of present value.

        1
        Reply
  14. JV

    1 year ago

    If the Dodgers deal for Glasnow, they won’t make this deal…… It’s Mets or Red Sox

    1
    Reply
    • Yazmyhero

      1 year ago

      The Dodgers need multiple starters.
      Especially if Pepiot is in the deal.

      4
      Reply
    • Mynameisnoname

      1 year ago

      Don’t fall victim to recency bias. Yankees have to be in that group as well as they have been courting him for years and also formally sat down with YY and reps earlier this week.

      Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        1 year ago

        My – I think you need to know Yama and Yoshida are Shin’yū.

        Six years as teammates.

        If the Red Sox meet with Yama last, that means they may have final opportunity to beat all prior offers. That would be HYUGE.

        1
        Reply
        • Mynameisnoname

          1 year ago

          FeverPitch- The Yankees have similar speculative angles, but I was just reminding JV the two most recent meetings aren’t the only two horses in the race.

          The Red Sox will be middle of the pack in terms of timing of meeting with YY, but regardless, Wolfe is a good agent- he’ll give everyone a chance to up their offers.

          For every Dice K and Yoshida there is a Nomo and Kuroda or Matsui and Tanaka, so it’s anyone’s guess at this point.

          Good luck to your Sox in their pursuits, sir!

          1
          Reply
    • kingbum

      1 year ago

      I think you are right JV. I think this does end up in a bidding war Red Sox vs Mets….I think the price will get pushed north of 300 million, probably higher because both teams feel the pressure of Juan Soto with the Yankees. The Mets want to be the talk of New York and in Boston Chris Sale is no longer an Ace, he’s good but ya know he will spend time hurt.

      Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      1 year ago

      It’s Yankees or LAD. My belief is that it’s NYY. Hal Steinbrenner flew to CA to meet with YY, which speaks volumes if you pay attention to how the Yankees operate.

      Also, the Yankees minority owner (who is a prominent Japanese billionaire) supposedly has influence too.

      Reply
  15. Cknyc

    1 year ago

    if dodgers get yamamoto for at least 300 mil,
    thatll be $1 billion to 2 players….and they dont have to fully pay til 10 years later.
    how is this fair for every other team?

    1
    Reply
    • Doral Silverthorn

      1 year ago

      because other teams can do the same thing?

      6
      Reply
      • Cknyc

        1 year ago

        but who wants to go to kansas city for the same contract? to any team that doesnt have same revenue? thats fair to you?
        and if yankees did some shi like the ohtani contract, theyre the evil empire right?

        4
        Reply
        • JoeBrady

          1 year ago

          but who wants to go to kansas city for the same contract?
          =====================
          Is your complaint that not all cities are equally beloved? I think that is understood. Same for Corporate America. It isn’t a reflection on some of the 2nd tier cities as much as places like NYC, Chicago, LA, etc., are globally important cities.

          Reply
        • Halo11Fan

          1 year ago

          Ichiro didn’t like Kansas City. It was too hot.

          1
          Reply
      • Digdugler

        1 year ago

        False, they wont go to other teams. See: Ohtani.

        Reply
      • Wire to wire 2024

        1 year ago

        No they can’t

        1
        Reply
      • Mickey Solis

        1 year ago

        NO THEY CANT! Stop with this narrative to defend the Dodgers. They have a huge advantage, period. Other owners are rich but they would have to use personal savings whereas Dodgers ownership has tons of revenue from TV and ads and tickets. Geez. Enough with that.

        1
        Reply
    • Big whiffa

      1 year ago

      It’s fair because they are paying market value. Which in turn makes every young star worth more if they can produce and earn it. And that in turn makes your whole franchise more valuable. It’s great for owners of reds and rays for ohtani to make 700 mil bc it shows the financial strength of MLB ! And that can be difficult to understand as fans

      1
      Reply
      • Gwynning

        1 year ago

        I understand what you’re saying Whiffa, but is it really “market value” when you blow up the market? No team can hang with the big gorillas (LAD & NYY)

        Reply
        • kingbum

          1 year ago

          Zaidi said the Giants offered almost the same exact thing and same contract structure to Ohtani. He said they offered $700 million with deferrals it just ended up Othani preferred LA. It’s on ESPN website….

          Reply
  16. Mystery13

    1 year ago

    I guess we know he isn’t going to the jays. They are in on every single top free agent and always end up with the next tier down.
    Having said that I’d be all in on Yamamoto and Belli and trade Manoah and Springer for assets and payroll relief

    Reply
    • Old York

      1 year ago

      @Mystery13

      The owners, Rogers Communications, are not interested in winning championships. They use the Blue Jays as a free forum for advertising and selling products.

      Reply
      • Mystery13

        1 year ago

        That’s is just a silly conclusion. No owner who didn’t want to win would be paying the luxury tax or run a top 10 payroll.

        1
        Reply
        • stymeedone

          1 year ago

          Media is all about viewership. If being a top ten payroll team increases the ratings, allowing more revenue, of course they would do it.

          Reply
    • Mynameisnoname

      1 year ago

      Manoah is the ultimate untradable piece. Typical paradox of former glory.

      TOR fans want to trade him because of his nightmare 2023 and coinciding poor attitude, but they also want 2021-22 value assigned to him.

      So he’s unmovable until he regains form and value, at which point the desire to move him disappears.

      Reply
      • Yanks2

        1 year ago

        I still have a feeling Manoah will bounce back and win comeback player of the year

        Reply
  17. Steve Dyer

    1 year ago

    I’m hoping he signs with the Cardinals; that Mozeliak finally climbs out of his hole and takes advantage of the Nootbaar relationship with Yamamoto.

    2
    Reply
    • baseballpun

      1 year ago

      I’d love it but it won’t happen. They already spent all their pitching money.

      Unless they can defer 98% of the contract.

      3
      Reply
    • CardsFan57

      1 year ago

      I’d much rather the Cardinals sign Montgomery for half the money. Yamamoto hasn’t thrown a single MLB pitch. His Japanese numbers and age are very similar to Masahiro Tanaka. He was an excellent pitcher. He wasn’t worth the numbers being thrown around now.

      I think someone is going to regret signing into this unrealistic bidding frenzy.

      1
      Reply
    • CuddyFox

      1 year ago

      Do not forget that Nootbaar and Arenado both went to Japan to meet with Yamamoto. Also, the three share the same agent, which used to be a Cardinals minor league prospect when Mozeliak was head of talent for the Cardinals.

      Reply
  18. jb10000lakes

    1 year ago

    Astros

    Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      Honestly I could actually see this happening

      Reply
  19. mostlytoasty

    1 year ago

    With all this Dodgers “legal” wink wink CBT BS, I’d be hard-pressed to bet on any other team beating them now, unless the Yanks or Mets offer some similar thing. Problem is YY isn’t going to ever make the kind of money Ohtani does from endorsements, so don’t expect him to be OK with $2 mil a year and then 95% of the rest backloaded.

    3
    Reply
  20. Goose

    1 year ago

    Interesting to see the polls. The money seems to have a consensus on the salary range. I do think the fans are wrong on the teams.

    The Dodgers have plenty of pitching, even if they don’t add Kershaw back and if some miracle Urias is kept.

    The Giants seem to be the common sense favorite as they have money to burn and West Coast for Japanese players have the advantage.

    If by some miracle it isn’t the Giants, most likely the Mets or Red Sox due to need and coming off disastrous seasons.

    The big wild card is the Ohtani contract now giving ideas to other players?

    2
    Reply
    • UncommonSense

      1 year ago

      Uriás is dead in the water

      7
      Reply
    • Reggie Smith

      1 year ago

      Sound logic Goose.

      1
      Reply
    • Jack Dawkins

      1 year ago

      Goose, other players don’t take in 40 million per year on endorsements. Ohtani could play for league minimum and still pay all his bills with money left over. If the Giants wildly overpay Yamamoto, they might have a shot. And the Dodger starting pitcher situation is really murky for 2024. They certainly have multiple inhouse candidates but all of them are either injured or unproven. Miller looked pretty good but he needs to show his stuff again to solidify his spot in the rotation. The Dodgers need a veteran ace more than another unproven rookie.

      Reply
  21. radhippo

    1 year ago

    Angels 10 – 325mil….They’re desperate

    2
    Reply
    • Big whiffa

      1 year ago

      350 to the San Francisco desperados

      Reply
  22. Very Barry

    1 year ago

    He is going to San Francisco guys

    Reply
  23. Wire to wire 2024

    1 year ago

    I still wanna hear that the reds are a mystery team in this

    Reply
    • ohyeadam

      1 year ago

      I heard the Reds are still in on him. Met last week

      1
      Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      Other than Votto when has Cincinnati ever spent?

      Reply
  24. Halo11Fan

    1 year ago

    I picked other. The Angels need to replace Ohtani and I think they are going huge.

    3
    Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      I think it will be the Angels or Mets

      1
      Reply
  25. acoss13

    1 year ago

    I picked Dodgers with over 300 million dollars. This will fully make them the new villain in MLB.

    3
    Reply
    • cwizzy6

      1 year ago

      297mil deferred

      4
      Reply
      • Halo11Fan

        1 year ago

        Paying 2 million a year for Ohtani is a joke. I really hope there is pushback.

        5
        Reply
    • CardsFan57

      1 year ago

      I think the Dodgers are too smart for this bidding war. Someone is going to overpay by a great deal in this frenzy.

      Reply
  26. abc123baseball

    1 year ago

    It will be well beyond $350M. Bidding war between Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, possibly more? This is like the ultra rich bidding on rare art. It won’t make sense but who cares – not our money.

    Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      I don’t think Yamamoto deserves more than Gerrit Cole because the former has never pitched in the MLB but the latter has proven success in the league

      Reply
  27. Aaron Sapoznik

    1 year ago

    I was stupid enough to have the Cubs signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the MLBTR Prediction Contest. I am voting for the Dodgers now in the wake of the surprising Shohei Ohtani deferred free agent contract that makes their CBT hit far more affordable than any of us had suspected.

    Like most fans, I correctly predicted the Cubs would lose out to the Dodgers on Ohtani. I also thought they would prioritize Juan Soto’s lefty bat in a trade with the Padres but the Yankees proactively stepped up and got a deal done before the losers in the Ohtani derby could compete for him.

    I figured that Soto would be a Cubs priority because they wouldn’t get in a bidding war over Cody Bellinger who I had going to the Giants. Now that SF has signed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee, I suspect the Blue Jays will go all out for Bellinger. My only hope for a Bellinger reunion on the northside is if Toronto and the Angels spend their Ohtani money elsewhere.

    The dominoes are finally beginning to fall in the hot stove but they are mostly standing with my predictions. lol

    2
    Reply
    • acoss13

      1 year ago

      Yankees were smart to swoop in and get Soto before teams began to pivot. I really would have liked the Cubs to get Soto or Yamamoto but now with the Dodgers getting a nice boon on Ohtani’s deferral deal, they can most definitely afford Yamamoto.

      Reply
    • Clayton Russell

      1 year ago

      Their CBT hit is still 46 million. It’s still the highest of any player. What exactly were you expecting that this now changes your mind? Everyone is focusing on the CBT thing but if there were no deferrals they never would have offered him 700. Logic would show that they likely would have offered around 460 and the CBT hit wouldn’t have been any different. The real difference is in the actual dollars they now have freed up due to the deferral which they could now spend and go over the tax levels if they want to. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they just focus on trades now and try to stay under if possible..

      Reply
      • Jean Matrac

        1 year ago

        “…if there were no deferrals they never would have offered him 700.”

        Well, that sounds like a good thing to me.

        1
        Reply
  28. Troy Percival's iPad

    1 year ago

    My favorite part of Yamamoto’s Free Agency is his going to major cities to talk with teams. “Hey, free Christmas vacation” as he could see the very best parts of each city if he wanted to. It’s a pretty sweet job if you can swing it

    1
    Reply
  29. cwizzy6

    1 year ago

    Shock the world, Brewers!

    Reply
  30. JoeBrady

    1 year ago

    As a RS fan, I’m fine with $250M/10, and even that is a slight stretch. At $300M+, we should start to consider Monty, Snell, etc.

    Reply
    • kingbum

      1 year ago

      I got a feeling Snell also will be 5 yrs 150 million….30 million AAV just like Yamamoto

      Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      Snell is like Eric Hosmer as a pitcher. Puts up great numbers one season then disappears for a few seasons then puts up another monster season

      Reply
  31. slider32

    1 year ago

    Dodgers have to be on the top of the list for any super star free agent.

    1
    Reply
  32. Mad Hatter

    1 year ago

    Yankees fans will remember Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa

    3
    Reply
  33. Josh Ua.

    1 year ago

    It’s gotta be the Dodgers, right?

    Reply
  34. Sid Bream Speed Demon

    1 year ago

    Maybe the Rangers will trade for Nootbaar and then sign him?

    1
    Reply
  35. just_thinkin

    1 year ago

    If you vote the highest possible amount and the Dodgers, I feel like you have a 75% chance of being correct on this poll.

    1
    Reply
  36. deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger

    1 year ago

    Some of these guys want to play around other Japanese guys. Japan does have their own league, just fyi…

    1
    Reply
  37. Old York

    1 year ago

    Why no option for $1 Billion? Defer the payments for the life of the payer and it could be possible.

    2
    Reply
  38. Logjammer D"Baggagecling

    1 year ago

    250-275mil over 8 years

    Dark Horse signs with tbe Cubs. Anyone but the Yankees or Dodgers.

    2
    Reply
  39. Reyordonézfanclub

    1 year ago

    Has anybody figured out the ramifications of the deferred money to Othani?? There has to be some sort of penalty

    3
    Reply
    • martras

      1 year ago

      None. The only ramifications will be the risk to the Dodgers if Ohtani is performance risk. Ohtani wanted the deferrals in the contract, it wasn’t the Dodgers pushing it. I do suspect deferrals are going to be revisited in the next CBA, though.

      1
      Reply
      • acoss13

        1 year ago

        The other issue I have is only 2 million dollars are going to be taxed in the state of California. I think other players would have issue with that.

        Reply
        • martras

          1 year ago

          You don’t think Ohtani’s endorsement deals are going to be taxed? Ohtani wouldn’t be taxed at California rates for games he plays outside California anyway.

          Also, Ohtani could still be playing in 10 years. Is he moving out of California to a different team to dodge taxes? Will he stay in the United States after he retires? Those are all things down the line.

          This is like taking the cash option vs. the deferral option when somebody wins the lottery. Ohtani took the deferred payment option.

          1
          Reply
        • acoss13

          1 year ago

          You make valid points. It just feels really slimey how the Dodgers basically get to spend more because of how much is being deferred. Obviously this team has no problem spending, and deferred contracts aren’t new, it just feels a little unfair how one team is about to gobble up a lot of the pie with few repercussions. I think I understand now why the Yankees were so hated in the 90s when they gobbled up the big superstar players.

          2
          Reply
        • cscd1111

          1 year ago

          Best post I’ve read in a while,the Dodgers already have a huge advantage with the money. They don’t need it deferred and people need to stop claiming it was Ohtani idea to defer how do teams not involved in the bidding know this shouldn’t every team in baseball have the opportunity to defer what needed to fit Ohtani under their caps?

          Reply
        • Clayton Russell

          1 year ago

          The Dodgers didn’t sign any of the top 10 free agents last year. I went through the yearly top FA lists on Fangraphs and the Dodgers have only signed 3 of the top 5 free agents in the past 7 years (including this year and Shohei). The other two aside from Ohtani were Freeman and Bauer. It’s crazy people are so mad at the Dodgers but are fine with the Braves getting away with only paying Acuna 17 million a year or whatever.

          Reply
        • Clayton Russell

          1 year ago

          The reports said all of the teams offers included heavy deferments, so yes, they all had the opportunity, but he already lives in Southern California so the Dodgers had an advantage there and they win consistently so there’s another advantage. It’s his life, he gets to decide. Would you be happier if the Dodgers had only offered him 300 million and he still picked them? If you really hate the Dodgers, you should be happy they had to spend so much to get him..

          Reply
        • Jean Matrac

          1 year ago

          That’s correct that deferred contracts aren’t new. But it seems to me that they were originally used for teams with limited resources to sign a guy at market rate, when that money wasn’t fully available. Now it’s being used by wealthy clubs to reduce the CBT hit. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was revisited in the next CBA, but it might be too late to get the union to go along with curtailing the use of deferrals.

          1
          Reply
    • Clayton Russell

      1 year ago

      The penalty is that they’ll have less money to spend in 2034-2043. This is the same penalty that the Orioles are now paying for signing Chris Davis to a heavily deferred contract (and many other teams who are paying players that are no longer on the teams).

      This is like the opposite of tanking to rebuild which I’d argue actually is hurting the league more.

      4
      Reply
  40. Dogs

    1 year ago

    My choice was over $350M plus Other Team. He will sign with the Tigers. They will go all in on him & push the $$$$$ High & many years.

    Reply
  41. drew ford

    1 year ago

    How can anyone not say Dodgers??

    1
    Reply
    • Reggie Smith

      1 year ago

      “How can anyone not say Dodgers??”

      Youre kidding right? No reason for the Dodgers to sign Yamamoto. They already caught their big fish. He will go to a hungrier team in need of a big signing.

      1
      Reply
  42. DannyQ3913

    1 year ago

    Watch the Phillies with him although we need a closer 100% more than him

    Reply
  43. Tomas7

    1 year ago

    Never underestimate the Dodgers, I hope the Mets get him.

    1
    Reply
  44. ripperlv

    1 year ago

    Angels

    1
    Reply
  45. Bob Sacamano 310

    1 year ago

    25 and almost 1k innings under his belt. Over/under when he will need TJ Surgery: July 1, 2026

    Reply
  46. hllywdjff

    1 year ago

    Mariners…

    Reply
  47. Eovaldismemes

    1 year ago

    Yamamoto to the Savannah Bananas for 10 years 800M except 790M of it is deferred and Yamamoto is getting paid 1M per year for 10 years

    1
    Reply
  48. Steve Dyer

    1 year ago

    I like your logic CuddyFox!

    Reply
  49. Best Screenname Ever

    1 year ago

    If he’s not a Blue Jay it’s because the owner is too cheap or the FO is bad.

    Reply
  50. Yanks2

    1 year ago

    Don’t count out the Angels. They’re the mystery team if there ever was one for Yamamoto. They just lost Ohtani; Trout is washed up; all the other big names they have are injured or too fragile to put up good numbers for a whole season. It would make the fans happy if they go out and sign a big name like Yamamoto

    Reply
  51. baseballguru

    1 year ago

    I think the Redsox get him because they realize Redsox Nation won’t be spending money if they don’t! Pretty Simple but true.

    Reply
  52. baseballguru

    1 year ago

    山本:過去20年間で最も多くのワールドシリーズチャンピオンシップを獲得したチームが必要な場合は、ボストン・レッドソックスのみのチームです。我々には素晴らしい若いコアがいて、次のWSチャンピオンチームとダイナスティの再建はほぼ完了しています。日本人投手と選手との長い歴史を持ち、ピッチングコーチ、CBO、ピッチングディベロップメントプレジデントを全面的に刷新。どちらにしても。。。ボストンは、この次の10年間で複数のリングを獲得するでしょう!だから、ボストンのスターになることもできますし、年老いたスターのローテーションの別の人になることもできます。エースも増えるし、プロデュースも増える。しかし、レッドソックス・ネイションと吉田は、フェンウェイ・パークで君が支配するのを待っている…野球の本当のメッカ!

    Reply

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