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Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins idled their way through much of the offseason as the front office navigated payroll limitations before eventually making a characteristic late strike on the trade market.

Major League Contracts

2024 spend: $7.7MM
Total spend: $7.7MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Twins won the American League Central and ended their historic postseason losing streak in 2023, sweeping the Blue Jays out of the American League Wild Card round before falling 3-1 to the Astros in an ALDS defeat. Fans hoped that a taste of postseason success would spur ownership to further invest in the roster, but the Twins were one of several clubs who spent the offseason in limbo with no clear picture of what would happen regarding their television broadcasts amid Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy filings.

It became clear early in the offseason that the Twins planned to cut payroll. Front office leadership was direct in suggesting as much, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that the goal was to scale payroll back from last year’s $155MM mark to somewhere in the $125-140MM range. It was a frustrating development for a fanbase that had recently seen the Twins emerge as major players in free agency, signing Carlos Correa in back-to-back offseasons.

Not only did the looming payroll reduction prevent the Twins from bringing in new talent, it also likely sealed the fate of starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda before the offseason began in earnest. Gray, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up, made the no-brainer decision to reject a qualifying offer and unsurprisingly landed a contract north of $50MM: a three-year, $75MM pact in St. Louis. Topping the $50MM mark was key for the Twins, as that ensures they’ll receive a comp pick at the end of the first round for losing Gray. Minnesota reportedly had interest in keeping Maeda, but only on a one-year deal. He inked a reasonable two-year, $24MM pact with the Tigers that perhaps the Twins would’ve been more comfortable matching under normal circumstances, but he departed with the team receiving no compensation.

The Twins’ needs entering the offseason were well known. The rotation was losing a pair of notable arms — three, really, if you count Tyler Mahle, who missed most of the season due to Tommy John surgery — and they’d be on the lookout for ways to fill those innings. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey said in early November that the club might also keep an eye out for first base options, and the Twins were also known to be looking for a right-handed-hitting outfield bat to provide insurance for oft-injured Byron Buxton in center field with Michael A. Taylor reaching free agency.

Even though their to-do list was hardly shrouded in secrecy, the Twins idled throughout the first several months of the offseason. Free agents who’d fit the team’s needs — both expensive and reasonably priced — came off the board with minimal interest reported from Minnesota. Frustration among the fanbase understandably built.

The Twins have a knack for late-offseason trades/signings of significance, though, and they once again waited until that stage of the winter to make any real moves of note. The first and most significant transaction of the entire offseason came when the Twins, after months of exploring the trade market, found a deal to their liking for stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco. The 30-year-old second baseman had been in the organization since he was 16 years old and had been a staple in the Twins’ infield since 2016.

Infield was perhaps the Twins’ greatest organizational area of depth, though. Beyond Polanco, they were set with Correa at shortstop, Royce Lewis at third base and 2023 breakout rookie Edouard Julien at second base. Utility players Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro can play any of those three spots. The Twins had former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda in the mix at first base, with Miranda also capable of playing third base. Knocking on the door to the majors were the club’s No. 2 prospect, Brooks Lee, whom they selected with the No. 8 pick in 2022, and Austin Martin — a former No. 5 overall pick acquired in the trade that sent Jose Berrios to Toronto.

Over in Seattle, infield depth was far thinner. The Mariners had targeted Polanco in the past, but the Twins weren’t keen on moving him with less MLB-caliber infield depth and with so many affordable, prime-aged years remaining on Polanco’s extension. The 2023-24 offseason was clearly a different story. Polanco’s down to two years of control on his contract. Minnesota’s infield depth is arguably at an all-time high. They were also looking to scale back payroll.

The Twins could’ve tried to structure a deal sending Polanco and prospect depth to another club for controllable young pitching, but that hasn’t been this front office’s M.O. in past trades. The Twins always seem to focus on backfilling the system even if they’re trading for a major league player, and that was the case with the Polanco swap. Reliever Justin Topa, fresh off a breakout season, gave the Twins an immediate bullpen upgrade to a setup corps already including quality relievers like Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart.

Also headed to Minnesota in that deal were veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani, top outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, and minor league righty Darren Bowen. DeSclafani checked the Twins’ desire to add a low-cost option to compete for the fifth starter’s job in spring training. The Mariners had acquired him from the Giants earlier in the offseason, with San Francisco kicking in $6MM to help cover the right-hander’s $12MM salary. The Mariners redirected that $6MM to Minnesota and added another $2MM, leaving DeSclafani as a $4MM flier for the back of Minnesota’s rotation. (More on that in a bit.)

Prospect-wise, Gonzalez adds another well-regarded name to a deep list of Twins outfield hopefuls. Bowen is further off but gives the Twins a prospect who’s increased his stock since being selected in the 13th round of the 2020 draft. Gonzalez generally ranks within Minnesota’s top six prospects; Bowen is near the back end of their top 30. Coupled with a controllable setup man and low-cost roll of the dice in the rotation, it was a nice return for the Twins and a big upgrade to the Seattle infield. The move generally looked justifiable for both parties.

The other aspect of the trade, for the Twins, was shedding some salary. The swap was a net gain of $5.25MM in payroll space, and the Twins used that exact sum to bring longtime division foe Carlos Santana to Target Field. What initially looked like a part-time role increasingly looks like a regular job for Santana. He’ll be the primary first baseman, providing a massive defensive upgrade over former top prospect Alex Kirilloff. While Kirilloff is still on the roster, he’ll see more time at DH and perhaps in left field. He’ll still see occasional reps at first base, but the Polanco trade/Santana signing in rapid succession signaled a shift to focus on run prevention in the form of defense and bullpen arms, as the Twins likely began to accept that a more significant rotation move wasn’t going to come together.

That line of thought likely informed the remainder of the Twins’ decisions this winter, too. Righties Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont both inked one-year deals. Jackson has been an underrated arm over the past several seasons and made his first Opening Day roster at 36 years of age. Staumont looked like a potential bullpen powerhouse for the Royals at times, but his high-octane arsenal was often undercut by poor command and, more recently, injury. The Twins are hoping to get him back on track after thoracic outlet surgery. Meanwhile, out-of-options utilityman Nick Gordon was swapped out for lefty Steven Okert, who posted a 3.51 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate in 146 innings from 2021-23. Both Topa and Okert are arb-eligible through 2026. Staumont is controlled through 2025, as is Jackson, whose deal includes an affordable $3MM club option.

Sticking with the themes of low-cost moves and run prevention, the Twins’ other primary focus was finding a right-handed hitting outfielder who could spell Byron Buxton in center and complement lefty-swinging corner outfielders Max Kepler and Matt Wallner. A reunion with Michael A. Taylor was of interest to the team, but he spent the offseason seeking either a two-year deal or a one-year pact commensurate with the $10.5MM deals signed by fellow defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader.

The Twins at one point looked to be a finalist for Enrique Hernandez to fill this role, but the Dodgers jumped into the mix late in his free agency, bringing the fan favorite back to Chavez Ravine in a move that made Manuel Margot redundant. The Dodgers committed $4MM to Hernandez and swung a trade with the Twins that would see Minnesota cover $4MM of Margot’s remaining $12MM. It was a cash-neutral move for the Dodgers and one that filled an immediate need for the Twins. It cost Minnesota former first-round pick Noah Miller, but Miller at this point looks the part of an all-glove infield prospect whose bat has yet to develop. Infield talent is an area of strength in Minnesota’s system, and Miller didn’t have a path to a prominent role on the team in the long run.

In retrospect, the Twins could’ve perhaps held onto Miller and re-signed Taylor, who wound up agreeing to a modest $4MM deal with the Pirates once camp was already underway. Taylor was seeking more money at the time the Twins acquired Margot, however. It’s possible, even, that the Twins’ pivot to an alternative solution dinged Taylor’s market enough that he dropped his price.

It’s a similar story in the rotation. At the time the Twins acquired DeSclafani, a $4MM price point for a decent bit of rotation depth was reasonable enough. DeSclafani had clear injury risk but as recently as 2021 had pitched 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball. Even if that level of performance couldn’t be expected, he’s a career 4.20 ERA pitcher with good command, average ground-ball tendencies and only a slightly below-average strikeout rate.

Of course, we now know that DeSclafani won’t pitch for the Twins this season. He underwent flexor surgery that’ll wipe out his ’24 campaign before it begins. It’s a continuation of a maddening trend for Twins fans that have seen trade acquisitions like Sam Dyson, Chris Paddack and Tyler Mahle all injured almost immediately upon joining the Twins. Dyson had hidden his injury from the Giants prior to being dealt, but the remaining arms were all bets on talented arms with very recent injury issues that made the risk in acquiring them quite clear. While higher-profile pickups of names like Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have borne more fruit, the DeSclafani injury only further adds to that list.

It’s all the more frustrating when two months later, the stagnant free agent market resulted in the likes of Michael Lorenzen ($4.5MM) and Mike Clevinger ($3MM) signing vastly smaller guarantees than expected. There’s no way the Twins or other clubs could’ve foreseen the market for those two — Lorenzen in particular — dipping to this point. But, if the Twins were indeed working on this tight a budget, it appears all the more questionable to make their primary depth acquisition someone who’d pitched just 118 2/3 innings in the two prior seasons and ended the ’23 campaign on the IL with a flexor strain.

With DeSclafani shelved, right-hander Louie Varland steps squarely into the rotation alongside Lopez, Paddack, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. It’s a talented group, but the depth behind it isn’t as strong. The Twins have Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick on the 40-man roster, plus top prospect David Festa not far from MLB readiness. Still, Paddack will likely be on an innings cap of some sort after throwing just 27 1/3 MLB frames from 2022-23 due to his second career Tommy John surgery. There’s a clear lack of experience at the back of the group with Varland, Woods Richardson, Headrick and Festa. Adding some some depth by way of a veteran who was released late in camp (e.g. Julio Teheran) or via adding a recent DFA casualty (e.g. Jackson Wolf, Vladimir Gutierrez, Adrian Martinez) could be prudent in the early going.

The Twins’ rotation clearly looks worse this season than last, but the club’s hope has been that healthier seasons from Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, plus full seasons of Julien and Wallner could help to offset some of that downturn. Lewis’ early quad injury has already dashed some of those hopes, but there’s still ample time for him to top last year’s 239 plate appearances.

Minnesota’s front office isn’t necessarily shy about attempting to upgrade at the trade deadline, either, and so long as they remain in the hunt for the AL Central crown, they’ll likely be active in late July. It’d be a surprise to see the Twins fall out of the race early. While the quiet offseason showing wasn’t the follow-up fans wanted, this club still looks well-positioned to contend.

Padres Acquire Jackson Wolf From Pirates

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The Padres have acquired left-hander Jackson Wolf from the Pirates, per announcements from both clubs, with minor league infielder Kervin Pichardo going the other way. Wolf had been designated for assignment by the Pirates last week and has now been optioned to Triple-A El Paso. The Friars had an open spot on their roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move.

Wolf, 25 this month, returns to his original organization. The Padres selected the lupine lefty in the fourth round of the 2021 draft but he was sent to the Bucs in the deal at last year’s deadline that sent Rich Hill and Jiman Choi to San Diego. Prior to that trade, Wolf had made 18 Double-A starts with a 4.08 earned run average, 29.8% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. He also made one emergency start in the big leagues, allowing three earned runs in five innings.

His numbers after changing organizations were not as impressive. He made eight Double-A starts after the deal with a 4.25 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. Perhaps he was surpassed on the Pirates’ depth chart by guys like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The Bucs needed three Opening Day roster spots for Jones, Ryder Ryan and Hunter Stratton and Wolf was one of the casualties.

But losing his roster spot with Pittsburgh gives him the chance to rejoin the Padres. Pitching depth has been a concern for the Friars all winter as each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Hill reached free agency. They added Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe in the Juan Soto trade and then added Dylan Cease, sending Thorpe out in that deal.

They currently have a rotation consisting of Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Matt Waldron, with Brito in the big league bullpen as Vásquez and Jay Groome are on the 40-man and pitching in Triple-A. Wolf will join the latter two in that category and try to earn his next trip to the majors. He still has two option years remaining.

To reacquire Wolf, the Padres will part with Pichardo, whom they acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 deal that sent James Norwood the other way. He split 2023 between High-A and Double-A, striking out in 25.9% of his plate appearances but also drawing walks 12.5% of the time. His combined batting line of .257/.370/.402 translated to a wRC+ of 120.

He didn’t crack Baseball America’s list of the top 30 Padres prospects coming into the year but will give the Bucs a bit of extra minor league infield depth. He has played all four infield spots in his minor league career and a little bit in the outfield as well.

Phillies Designate Connor Brogdon, Select Ricardo Pinto

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The Phillies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Ricardo Pinto, with fellow righty Connor Brogdon designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

The Phils have had to lean heavily on their bullpen to start this season, using five relievers in each of the first three games and six relievers last night. Brogdon pitched in three of those four contests and didn’t fare well, allowing six earned runs in two innings. He struck out three batters but also issued six walks and allowed three hits, two of which were home runs.

That’s a small sample size but it continues a worrying trend for a pitcher who looked so strong not too long ago. From 2020 to 2022, he made 112 appearances for the Phils with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 25.1% of batters faced in that time and walked just 7.3%. He added another 8 2/3 innings in the 2022 postseason with a 2.08 ERA, helping the Phillies make it to the World Series.

But he took a step back last year, with his strikeout rate falling to 20.5% and his walk rate climbing to 10.2%. His ERA for the year was 4.03 but he was likely fortunate for it to be that low. His 80.6% strand rate was on the high side, which is why his 5.15 FIP and 4.59 SIERA were less optimistic than his ERA. As he struggled, he was optioned to the minors and burned his last option.

This year, he didn’t look sharp in his 7 2/3 spring innings, giving out six walks compared to seven strikeouts. As mentioned, those struggles have carried over into the regular season. His fastball was averaging 95-6 miles per hour in 2021 and 2022 but was down to 94.7 mph last year and has been 92.8 mph so far this year. With the bullpen fairly taxed and Brogdon now out of options, he’s been squeezed out as the club adds a fresh arm.

The Phils will now have a week to either trade Brogdon or pass him through waivers. His recent form is obviously not very exciting but he could perhaps attract some other clubs based on his previous results. He came into this season with two years and 139 days of service time, meaning he could be controlled for three seasons beyond this one if he gets a roster spot elsewhere.

Pinto, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Phils in February. He spent 2023 pitching in the Mexican League for the Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos and the Diablos Rojos del México, then headed to Venezuela for some time in winter ball. He logged 137 2/3 innings between Mexico and Venezuela with a 4.12 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He tossed 5 2/3 innings in Spring Training recently, striking out three but also walking three.

He’s out of options and will need to be removed from the 40-man entirely if the Phils want to bump him off the roster in the future. He previously pitched for the 2017 Phillies and 2019 Rays, with a career ERA of 8.44 in 32 big league innings thus far.

Rangers To Promote Justin Foscue

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4:15pm: Foscue has been officially recalled with Jung placed on the 10-day injured list. Rangers general manager Chris Young said Jung will undergo surgery and could be back in six weeks, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today.

9:59am: The Rangers will promote infield prospect and former first-round pick Justin Foscue ahead of today’s game, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll take the roster spot of third baseman Josh Jung, who’s headed to the injured list after suffering a broken wrist yesterday when he was hit by a pitch. It’ll be Foscue’s major league debut when he first takes the field.

Foscue, 25, is a bat-first prospect with a hit-over-power skill set. His outstanding bat-to-ball skills have been on play in each of the past two seasons in the upper minors; he slashed .288/.367/.483 in 460 Double-A plate appearances in 2022 and .266/.394/.468 in 563 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Foscue struck out in only 14.3% of those Double-A plate appearances and notched an even better 12.4% strikeout rate in a 2023 season that saw him draw walks at a gaudy 15.1% rate.

While Foscue doesn’t have the plus power we so often see from bat-first prospects, that doesn’t mean he’s strictly a slap hitter. He popped 15 homers in ’22 and another 18 last year. He also piled up 31 doubles in each of the past two seasons and has chipped in another five triples along the way. Foscue draws below-average grades for his speed but was able to swipe 14 bags in Triple-A last year — albeit in 21 tries (66.7% success rate).

The main knock on Foscue throughout his professional career has been his defense. He’s played primarily second base (1933 innings) but has also logged time at the hot corner (410 innings) and at first base (92 innings). He’s not regarded as a strong defender at any of those positions, however. Baseball America ranked him as the Rangers’ No. 4 prospect this season, lauding his offensive future but noting that Foscue “does not have the range, mobility or arm strength to stick up the middle or at third base.” He could eventually serve as a platoon partner for Nathaniel Lowe at first base, a part-time designated hitter and perhaps log some time in left field, but defense doesn’t appear likely to ever be a vital part of his skill set. Even if the Rangers were more bullish on his abilities at second base than rival scouts, he’s blocked at his natural position, with Marcus Semien signed through 2028.

The Rangers likely aren’t calling Foscue up simply to play sparingly. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran could also see time at third base in Jung’s absence, but both Duran and Foscue bat right-handed, so a conventional platoon isn’t likely to be deployed — at least at third base. With Lowe on the shelf, however, Foscue can be a righty complement to Jared Walsh against lefties. Beyond that, he figures to draw starts at designated hitter and third base versus right-handed pitching.

From a service time vantage point, Foscue is being recalled early enough that he’d garner a full year if he sticks on the big league roster. In that scenario, he’d be arb-eligible following the 2026 season and slated for free agency following the 2029 season. Even a short-term optional stint back in the minors at any point in the next few seasons could push his free agency back a year, though.

Given the crowded Texas infield —  where a healthy Jung, Semien, Lowe and Corey Seager are all entrenched in their spots — it’s quite possible Foscue could see some time back in Triple-A, particularly if he struggles at all in his initial taste of the big leagues. If he hits from the outset, however, he could eventually move into a regular DH role who occasionally spells the Texas regulars around the infield.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs retained Cody Bellinger at a bargain price, replaced Marcus Stroman, found a potential first base solution, and supplemented their bullpen – all while staying below the first competitive balance tax threshold.

Major League Signings

  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: three years, $80MM.  2025 and ’26 seasons are player options.
  • Shota Imanaga, SP: four years, $53MM.  2026 is a player option that triggers additional options.
  • Hector Neris, RP: one year, $9MM.  Includes $9MM club option for 2025

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with an important choice by starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on November 4th: he decided to opt out of the remaining one year and $21MM left on his contract.  This created financial flexibility and a vacant rotation spot, making some sort of starting pitching addition feel inevitable.

The following day, the Cubs locked in a rotation spot by making the expected decision to exercise Kyle Hendricks’ $16.5MM club option.  They also picked up the $6MM option on catcher Yan Gomes.

Then the Cubs made a move few people saw coming: they brought in Craig Counsell as manager, which required the largest contract in MLB history for that job both in terms of total and average annual value.  David Ross was fired in the process.  Counsell had managed the Brewers for nearly nine years, taking them to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons.  Counsell is regarded as one of the game’s better managers, and he often succeeded despite below-average payrolls in Milwaukee.

The stunning Counsell-for-Ross move conjured memories of Theo Epstein’s opportunistic switch nine years prior from Rick Renteria to Joe Maddon.  The Cubs’ signature player acquisition that offseason was the signing of Jon Lester, ranked second on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.  After the Counsell hiring, it was natural to wonder if Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer would deliver an additional offseason prize such as Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The Cubs did show interest in some of the offseason’s biggest names.  Reports suggest they made a real effort to sign Ohtani before he landed with the Dodgers on a heavily-deferred ten-year, $700MM deal, though the Cubs weren’t seemingly a finalist.  According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan, as Ohtani’s free agency drew to a close, agent Nez Balelo “proposed the same deal to at least three other teams,” the Giants, Blue Jays, and Angels.  As late as December 5th, Hoyer shot down a report that the Cubs’ optimism on Ohtani had waned, but it probably should have been waning around then.  The Cubs are not mentioned in that Gonzalez/Passan insider account of the signing.  Whether the Cubs dropped out due to an unwillingness to meet Ohtani’s asking price or due to his preference to play elsewhere remains unknown.

Though Hoyer saw Yamamoto on a September scouting trip to Japan, the Cubs were largely absent from reports about his offseason free agent pursuit.  The reporting on Yamamoto’s free agency provided no indication that the Cubs met with Yamamoto or made an offer.  It is known that both New York teams made strong offers to Yamamoto, who of course wound up joining Ohtani on the Dodgers.  There isn’t much indication that the Cubs could have reasonably won the bidding for Yamamoto, nor that they tried to.

Likewise, the Cubs may have had interest in then-Padres outfielder Juan Soto, but if so they kept it quiet in the rumor mill.  Soto differed from Ohtani and Yamamoto in that it wasn’t up to the player – that prize went to the team that made the best offer.  Soto was a bit of a tough fit for a Cubs team with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked in at the outfield corners.

One major trade target that made ample sense was Tyler Glasnow of the Rays.  According to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, “the Cubs remained in the Glasnow talks until the end, but were not willing to make a comparable offer” to the Dodgers’ proposal of Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca.  Glasnow’s preferences also mattered.  As Rosenthal and Ardaya put it, “He effectively could rule out certain teams by telling [Rays president of baseball operations Erik] Neander he would only stay with them for one season before entering free agency.”  The Cubs probably could’ve offered enough to land Glasnow for 2024, but they would not necessarily have been able to sign him to an extension.

Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee was quietly on the Cubs’ radar as well, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Like so many of this offseason’s big names, Lee wound up in the NL West.

As 2023 drew to a close, Cubs fans’ dreams of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto, or Glasnow had been dashed.  The team had added a managerial star, but nothing else.

A pair of key moves came within a three-day span in January.  First, the Cubs signed 30-year-old southpaw Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal.  The team also owes a posting fee of at least $9.825MM to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.  Imanaga will earn $23MM for his first two seasons with the Cubs, after which the team must decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering his age 32-34 seasons.  If they do so, it’d bring Imanaga’s total to five years and $80MM, similar to preseason contract projections.  If the Cubs decline, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for ’26.  If exercised, the Cubs will have to decide on two years and $42MM for 2027-28.  If the Cubs decline their first option, Imanaga exercises his ’26 player option, and the Cubs decline their 2027-28 option, the pitcher has another $15MM option for ’27.

It’s a fairly complicated structure that offers the Cubs some measure of protection as opposed to the $80MM guarantee a starter like Eduardo Rodriguez received.  Early returns on Imanaga suggest he can perform as a mid-rotation starter, in which case his contract represents a solid deal for the Cubs.  I don’t blame the Cubs for preferring Imanaga on his contract to Stroman at $21MM for one year or $37MM for two.

First base was a clear need for the Cubs, and they reportedly entertained a traditional solution in Rhys Hoskins as well as an interesting one in Josh Naylor.  Eventually, though, Hoyer made an addition no one saw coming by trading prospects for the Dodgers’ Michael Busch, as well as reliever Yency Almonte.  Busch, an MLB-ready 26-year-old rookie, comes with six years of control remaining.  He won’t even be paid an arbitration salary until 2027, and he’s under team control for a total of six more years.  If Busch develops into the above average hitter his scouting reports and Triple-A work suggest, this will become an inspired pickup by the Cubs.

The Cubs inked Hector Neris to a one-year deal in late January, at a $9MM salary a bit beyond Hoyer’s typical comfort zone for relievers.  At that point, the Cubs could have considered their offseason done.  They’d replaced Stroman, found a first base solution, and supplemented the bullpen.

Cody Bellinger has been conspicuously absent from this post thus far, and that’s because Bellinger reportedly sought $200MM or more on a long-term deal.  Back in November, I thought he’d get it, and not from the Cubs.  I also felt that the Cubs’ motivation on Bellinger would be limited, given the presence of slick-fielding center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.  There were signs the Cubs lacked full confidence in running PCA out to begin the season, however.  Two, specifically: their interest in Jung Hoo Lee and Kevin Kiermaier.

So the Cubs hung back and remained opportunistic on Bellinger.  As late as February 19th, owner Tom Ricketts said, “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” calling out agent Scott Boras to get serious.  About a week later, Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs was done, at a mere $80MM guarantee over three years.  Yes, there’s downside risk in that Bellinger will only forgo his two opt-outs if he performs poorly.  But if he plays well again this year and opts out, the Cubs will have only committed $30MM.  The Bellinger signing lengthens the Cubs’ lineup and pushes Crow-Armstrong back to Triple-A.  Bellinger can also slide over to first base should circumstances warrant it.

Ricketts made his position on payroll clear in that February 19th interview: “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels.  It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”  That was before the Bellinger signing; with him, the Cubs are estimated at about $234MM, only $3MM below the first CBT threshold to which Ricketts referred.

As the calendar turned to March, the Cubs were presented with a slew of opportunities to jump on further Boras surprise bargains and push the team from “should be enough to win our division” to “likely to win our division.”  Likely because of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push payroll past its current point (an estimated 10th in MLB), the Cubs passed on several big name free agents they very much could have used.

Matt Chapman was next off the board, signing a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants that included a pair of opt-outs.  Chapman would have been a “nice-to-have” for the Cubs, plugging in at third base and pushing Christopher Morel mostly to the DH spot.  It’s possible Chapman’s comfort in the Bay Area meant the Cubs would have had to go higher than the Giants, however.  The Cubs’ current plan seems to be mixing and matching at third base with Morel, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom.

The Giants also seized the opportunity to sign Blake Snell at two years and $62MM with an opt out.  Snell made a lot of sense at this price for the Cubs, though both he and Chapman would’ve required the Cubs to forfeit their second-round draft pick.  Jordan Montgomery remained on the market, however, and he would not require draft pick forfeiture.

The Cubs’ rotation, when everyone is healthy, will feature Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Wicks.  There is reason to believe this is not a collection of five 180-inning pitchers.  Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Drew Smyly are additional options to cover the inevitable injuries, such as the current ones to Steele and Taillon.  Signing Montgomery to a one-year, $25MM deal and pushing everyone down a spot was an opportunity the Cubs should’ve jumped on.   Instead Montgomery landed with the Diamondbacks, a team Ricketts would like to emulate, because, “You don’t have to have the highest payroll or the biggest stars. If you’re playing well, anybody can beat anybody. I was happy for the Diamondbacks.”

If the Cubs face any kind of starting pitching depth problem this year, and Snell and Montgomery are useful pitchers, it will be pretty easy to point to their availability in March.  To be fair, the same can be said of many teams.

Once everyone is healthy, the Cubs’ rotation looks decent, and their offense looks fairly deep.  The club also features strong defense up the middle.  They’re right in the middle of an NL Central that currently has all five teams projecting for 80-82 wins.  For a lot of teams, that’s good enough.

Mariners Claim Sammy Peralta From White Sox

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The White Sox announced that left-hander Sammy Peralta has been claimed off waivers by the Mariners. The southpaw was designated for assignment on Opening Day and has now been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma. The Mariners had two open spots on their 40-man roster, which is now at 39.

Peralta, 26, just made his major league debut with the Sox last year, frequently being shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues. He ultimately tossed 20 innings in the majors with a 4.05 earned run average, striking out 20% of batters faced while walking 12.2%. He seemed to do a decent job of limiting damage, as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate were all better than average in that small sample.

He also tossed 69 innings over 29 appearances in Triple-A with a 5.09 ERA, though he likely deserved better. His 23.1% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both strong but a 59.2% strand rate seems to have hampered him, which is why his 4.21 FIP was almost a full run better.

The Mariners are currently a little bit snakebit in the bullpen, with Gregory Santos and Matt Brash trying to come back from injuries while Jackson Kowar is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery. They have two lefties on the big league roster in Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo but Peralta will give them a third option on their 40-man for when a need arises.

He still has two option years and less than a year of service time, so he can be a long-term depth piece for the club if he continues to hang onto that 40-man spot. The M’s have done a good job in recent years with unearthing hidden gems by grabbing fairly unheralded relievers and polishing them until they shine, so the club and Peralta will be hoping he is the latest point on that trendline.

Marlins Acquire Emmanuel Rivera, Designate Jacob Amaya

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The Marlins announced Tuesday that they’ve acquired infielder Emmanuel Rivera from the D-backs in exchange for cash. Shortstop Jacob Amaya was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Rivera, 28 in June, is coming off a lackluster season in 2023 but seemed on the verge of a breakout in the prior two years. In 2021, while with the Royals, he first reached Triple-A and hit .286/.348/.592 in his first 63 games at that level.

In 2022, he did well at Triple-A again, hitting .307/.388/.520. He couldn’t immediately carry that over to the big leagues, hitting .243/.294/.378 in 309 plate appearances for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, translating to a wRC+ of 85. But he was traded to the Diamondbacks at the 2022 deadline for right-hander Luke Weaver and hit .227/.304/.424 for the Snakes after the deal, producing a wRC+ of 104 in that time.

In 2023, he continued mashing in Triple-A, hitting .330/.395/.598 there. In the bigs, however, he slashed .261/.314/.358 for a wRC+ of 83. He burned his last option last year and is now out of options. He stuck with the Diamondbacks through the winter but didn’t make the Opening Day roster and got squeezed off the 40-man.

For the Marlins, they will take a shot on Rivera and hope that his continually strong Triple-A production can start to filter up to the majors. He’s considered a strong defender at third, with nine Defensive Runs Saved and two Outs Above Average, with the ability to play first as well.

The Fish have Jake Burger as their regular at the hot corner but he’s not considered great with the glove, -11 DRS and -14 OAA, so Rivera could perhaps spell him in the field on occasion. Rivera has also hit .273/.327/.410 against lefties in his big league career compared to .233/.293/.364 against righties so perhaps could be used against southpaws while Burger goes to first base or the designated hitter spot. Corner outfielders Jesús Sánchez and Nick Gordon are both lefties with notable platoon splits, so perhaps they could be shielded a bit.

As for Amaya, 25, he’s long been considered a strong defender but the big question has been how much he can hit. Acquired from the Dodgers just over a year ago in the Miguel Rojas trade, he made his major league debut last year and got two singles in his first nine plate appearances. He hit .252/.345/.407 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ 89.

He has just one minor league option remaining so it may be something of a make-or-break year for him. The Marlins will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Given his solid defensive reputation, he could appeal to clubs with questions about their shortstop depth, especially since Amaya can be kept in the minors for the rest of the season.

Dodgers Claim Taylor Trammell

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The Dodgers have claimed outfielder Taylor Trammell off waivers from the Mariners, who’d designated him for assignment last week, Robert Murray of FanSided reports. Trammell is out of minor league options, so he’ll go right onto the Dodgers’ active roster.

Now 26 years old, Trammell was the No. 35 overall pick by the Reds back in 2016. He ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects each season from 2018-21 and has participated in a pair of Futures Games but hasn’t yet found success in the majors. He had multiple auditions with the Mariners — who acquired him alongside Andres Munoz and Ty France in exchange for Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla — but has produced only a .168/.270/.368 batting line with a huge 37% strikeout rate in 351 MLB plate appearances.

That said, Trammell has been vastly better in Triple-A. He’s spent parts of three seasons there as well, turning in a stout .274/.381/.506 batting line with a 24% strikeout rate that’s worlds better than his MLB clip. Trammell has shown off his eye at the plate both in the majors (11.1% walk rate) and in Triple-A (14%).

Trammell’s once better-than-average speed has declined, as Statcast ranked him in just the 43rd percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed last year.  His defensive grades from metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved haven’t lined up with scouting reports that pegged him as a potentially plus defender in the outfield, either. Trammell has probably hit for more power than was expected early in his prospect days. His .368 slugging isn’t much to look at, but when considering his low batting average, he’s sitting on a .200 ISO in his big league career. He’s also popped 38 homers in his 812 Triple-A plate appearances.

His role with the Dodgers is yet to be determined, though fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Jason Heyward has been dealing with a back issue. If Heyward needs to miss any time, Trammell could step into his role as a stopgap until the veteran is able to return.

Wei-Yin Chen Signs With Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks

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Eight-year MLB veteran Wei-Yin Chen has signed with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League, the team announced Tuesday. He’ll return to the mound after not pitching anywhere during the 2023 season.

Chen, now 38 years old, was a mainstay in the Orioles’ rotation from 2012-15 when he recorded 706 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball (4.14 FIP, 4.04 SIERA) with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 38.5% ground-ball rate. The Taiwanese-born lefty came to the O’s on a four-year deal after a five-year run with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He parlayed his solid showing in Baltimore into a five-year, $80MM contract in Miami that didn’t at all pan out as he or the Marlins hoped.

Chen was active for parts of the first four seasons of that contract, combining for 358 innings with a greatly diminished 5.10 ERA. His average fastball dropped by more than a mile per hour, and while his command remained strong and his strikeout rate slightly improved in Miami, Chen was quite a bit more homer-prone with the Fish than he had been with the O’s. A UCL injury midway through his Marlins tenure wiped out nearly all of his 2017 season. It never required surgery, but Chen still struggled out of the 2018 rotation and in a bullpen role in 2019. The Marlins ate the final year and $22MM on his contract when they released him following the 2019 campaign.

Since leaving the Marlins, Chen signed a minor league deal with the Mariners but never made their roster. He returned to Japan for the 2020-22 seasons, suiting up for the Chiba Lotte Marines and Hanshin Tigers. He was limited to 68 innings with those two teams’ big league clubs but pitched quite well when healthy and on the roster, turning in an ERA well shy of 3.00. Chen didn’t pitch in 2023.

While a big league comeback as he approaches his 39th birthday (July 21) seems like a long shot, it’s not impossible. The Atlantic League is an official partner league of MLB, and we’ve seen plenty of players utilize that setting as a launching pad back to affiliated ball over the years. MLB scouts will surely get looks at him on the mound. A strong enough performance could net him a minor league deal with an MLB club and put him one step away from getting back to the majors. Even if not, he’ll make for a fun comeback story to follow on the indie circuit this season.

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