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Big Hype Prospects: Luciano, Jung, Burleson, Hence, Naylor

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we bounce between the low and upper minors to check in on a couple handfuls of notable prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
222 PA, 10 HR, .268/.342/.470

Once considered the “next big thing,” Luciano has turned out to be less athletic than originally believed. When he added strength prior to 2021, he lost speed and flexibility. He still has a bright future, but there are a number of questions related to his future position, ability to make contact, and work ethic. Teams can overlook questionable range at shortstop, but Luciano also suffers from an errant arm, making a move down the defensive spectrum more likely. The work ethic concerns seem overblown to me – sometimes players draw negative reviews because they take their failures in stride. Fans, in particular, often equate tantrums with caring and wistful shakes of the head with a lack of care. Scouts too sometimes rush to judgment.

He only has 249 plate appearances this season because he missed over two months with a lower back strain. Since returning on August 4, he’s batting .243/.341/.419 in 85 plate appearances. All told, he’s performed on par with expectations for a 20-year-old top prospect in High-A. His swing is geared for high exit velocity, fly ball contact. He profiles as a future 30-homer threat. Keep an eye on his strikeout rate as he advances into the upper minors next season.

Josh Jung, 24, 3B, TEX (MLB)
(AAA) 106 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .273/.321/.525

Listed as a “snub” in last week’s edition of Big Hype Prospects because he wasn’t yet in the Majors, the Rangers have finally called upon their top prospect. Jung was on the cusp of an Opening Day assignment with Texas before an injury held him out until late July. Curiously, he’s actually performed poorly lately. After an initial thrashing of Triple-A pitching, he’s batting just .197/.232/.288 (.300 BABIP) over his last 69 plate appearances. Much of his recent woes can be boiled down to a 1.4 percent walk rate and 36.2 percent strikeout rate, both of which are uncharacteristic.

Jung is a hard contact machine that uses all fields. He generates substantial pull-side power. His overall profile is reminiscent of peak Josh Donaldson – a plus defender who can hit for average and power with a mid-lineup role. Given his ongoing slump, his debut might include a hiccup or two.

Alec Burleson, 23, OF, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 470 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .331/.372/.532

With Dylan Carlson on the injured list, the Cardinals get an opportunity to decide if Burleson will be a part of their postseason roster. A 2020 draftee, he raced through the minors without any setbacks. He’s a free-swinger with above-average plate coverage and an ability to use all fields. He’s a below-average runner who might best fit as a designated hitter long term. We might find his aggression is exploited by Major League pitchers. While his swing is often described as uncomplicated or simplistic – a trait usually associated with middling or worse power – Burleson is able to generate plenty of pop. The next step in his development is to improve his swing decisions.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (A)
52.1 IP, 13.93 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 1.38 ERA

The Cardinals have printed outfielders in recent years, and they’ve historically done well developing pitchers too. Hence has drool-worthy stats in Low-A, though it’s worth noting he’s pitching once every seven days. When he does appear, his outings are brief. He faced 16 batters on September 7 which also happens to be a career-high. He usually sees between 11 and 13 batters. It’s assumed Hence is being handled carefully due to his string-bean frame. He’s listed at 6’1’’ and 175 pounds. The FanGraphs crew compares his appearance to Triston McKenzie (he’s listed 6’5’’ and 165 pounds). For now, we can set workload concerns aside, but he’ll eventually need to work on a five-day schedule and face 20 or more hitters.

Hence wields a fastball and curve that fit the current meta. He works up in the zone with the heater and drops in the curve. It’s worth noting that hitters typically adjust to popular pitching strategies within a couple seasons. Hence might find his approach is less effective in 2025 than similar pitchers are experiencing today. He’s still working to develop a third offering. His changeup remains a work in progress per reports, drawing adjectives ranging from nasty to inconsistent.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 461 PA, 17 HR, 20 SB, .259/.397/.480

Naylor was generally well-regarded as of 2019. After the lost COVID year, he played so poorly in 2021 that some evaluators considered him a bust. Case in point, Baseball America ranked him 59th overall in their August update. When FanGraphs profiled Cleveland’s system in mid-April, Naylor ranked 28th – that’s just among Guardian farm hands.

He responded this season by thriving in Double-A and more than holding his own in Triple-A. The brother of fellow Guardian Josh Naylor, Bo has a discipline-forward approach that includes decent pop and a surprising feel for contact. As a left-handed hitter, he can take advantage of the friendlier aspects of Progressive Field’s park factors. The profile offers shades of former Guardians catching prospect Carlos Santana. Naylor happens to be a plus defender behind the dish, making a move down the defensive spectrum unnecessary. Like Santana, Naylor is liable to combine a poor batting average with a plus on base and slugging percentages. He has above-average foot speed for a catcher.

Five More

Shane Baz, TBR (23): Baz has just 40.1 big league innings split across two seasons so he’s still technically a prospect – and debatably the top pitching prospect. He’s eyeing a late-September or early-October return from an elbow sprain. At his best, he has a potent four-pitch repertoire though he still has room to improve his consistency. If he appears again this season, it will likely be as a high-leverage reliever.

Robert Hassell, WSH (20): A contact of mine casually mentioned a lot of the shine has come off Hassell this season. Despite struggling with the Nationals High-A affiliate, Washington opted to promote Hassell to Double-A based on his larger success with the Padres High-A club. Since arriving in Double-A, he’s batting .221/.310/.312 with a homer and a steal in 87 plate appearances. Personally, I’m starting to get Andrew Benintendi vibes. The swing is “sweet” but the quality of contact is not.

Logan O’Hoppe, LAA (22): O’Hoppe was the standout hitting prospect in the Phillies system heading into the trade deadline. However, Double-A Reading is notoriously hitter-friendly. It was unclear if his breakout was a product of the venue. Fast-forward 101 plate appearances, and it sure seems like O’Hoppe is the real deal. Since joining the Angels, he’s batting .297/.475/.689 with nine home runs and more walks than strikeouts.

Zac Veen, COL (20): Veen thrashed High-A pitching to the tune of .269/.368/.439 with 11 home runs in 400 plate appearances. The carrying trait, however, was his 50 steals in 54 attempts. He earned a promotion to Double-A where he’s made another 108 plate appearances. He’s struggling to adjust to the level – possibly due to fatigue. In 108 plate appearances, he’s batting .196/.269/.258 with one home run and four steals in nine attempts. It’s not super common for 20-year-olds to receive 508 plate appearances. The fatigue explanation passes a smell test.

Noelvi Marte, CIN, (20): It’s been a while since we last checked in on the contentious shortstop. He’s continued to perform well with the Reds, making incremental gains to his plate discipline and contact rates. He’s batting .292/.397/.443 in 126 plate appearances with Cincy’s High-A affiliate. Where he’ll eventually fit in a system that includes the inestimable Elly De La Cruz remains to be seen, but he’s certainly trending towards a long Major League career. Across both franchises, he has 520 plate appearances with a .279/.371/.458 triple-slash, 19 home runs, and 23 steals.

Rangers To Promote Josh Jung

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The Rangers are going to promote prospect Josh Jung, per Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Brad Miller is going to go on the 10-day injured list with a hip issue, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. That will create a spot on the active roster for Jung, but he will also need a corresponding move to get him onto the 40-man roster.

Jung, 24, was selected by the Rangers with the eighth overall pick in the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the top prospects in the sport ever since. He played 44 games in the minors that year, mashing the whole way through. In 2020, he jumped onto Baseball America’s top 100 list, coming in at #93.

Of course, 2020 brought the pandemic and all levels of the minor leagues were canceled, putting a dent in the plans of prospects all across the sport. As things were ramping back up for 2021 and they were all hoping to get back on track, Jung hit another setback. In March, he underwent surgery for a stress fracture in his foot, which was expected to lengthen his absence from organized baseball for another six to eight weeks.

"<strongDespite those setbacks, once Jung was finally healthy, he made up for lost time in a big way, finishing 2021 on an incredible tear. He finally made his season debut in Double-A on June 15 and played 43 games at that level, hitting .308/.366/.544 for a wRC+ of 140. He was promoted to Triple-A on August 20 and somehow hit even better. In 35 games for the Round Rock Express, his slash line was .348/.436/.652, wRC+ of 166. That strong finish to his campaign launched him all the way up to #26 on Baseball America’s list going into this year.

It seemed possible that Jung could make his MLB debut early in 2022, maybe even cracking the Opening Day roster. However, he suffered a shoulder strain in February while lifting weights as part of his preseason training program. He had to undergo surgery, which was expected to keep him out for six months. He returned to action in August, seemingly not missing a beat. In 30 games this year, he’s hitting .267/.323/.542, hitting nine homers in that short time. Although the shoulder injury slowed him down, it only delayed the inevitable.

Jung is now considered the #42 prospect in the game by Baseball America, #12 by FanGraphs, #24 by ESPN, #39 by MLB Pipeline and #54 by Keith Law of The Athletic. Just a few days ago, the Rangers seemed committed to keeping Jung down while giving the playing time at the hot corner to Ezequiel Duran, though it seems the injury to Miller has altered the plans. Duran is having an intriguing debut season, hitting  .240/.282/.373 for a wRC+ of 86. However, he could also be moved to other positions, having spent some time in his career at second base, shortstop and center field. Miller’s been used mostly as a designated hitter recently, with that spot now freed up somewhat for days when the Rangers want both Jung and Duran in the lineup.

If Jung can meet the lofty expectations placed upon him by his prospect status, he could be the final piece of a Rangers infield that could be set for years to come. Shortstop Corey Seager is in the first of a ten-year deal he signed in the offseason. Marcus Semien has second base locked after signing a seven-year deal this winter. Nathaniel Lowe is enjoying a tremendous breakout season over at first, which MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about just yesterday. Lowe is under team control for four seasons beyond the current campaign. There’s a lot of change in the wind in Texas, as they just recently fired their manager and president of baseball operations, but it’s possible that this infield could be a solid foundation for them to build upon in the coming years, helping them emerge from a lengthy rebuilding period.

If Jung can stick with the big league club from here on out, he is on pace to reach arbitration for the first time after 2025 and free agency after 2028. Future option assignments could delay those timelines, however. Jung also won’t reach 60 days of service time here in 2022 and is unlikely to get 130 at-bats. That means he will retain rookie/prospect status through the winter, which could have ramifications for the team. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. If Jung cracks the Opening Day roster next year and he wins a Rookie of the Year or places highly in MVP balloting during his first couple seasons, the club could pick up an extra draft choice down the line.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Prospect Notes: Alvarez, Jung, Casas, Rodriguez

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There was some concern that Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez could require surgery on his ailing right ankle, but the team received relatively good news on that front, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. While Alvarez does have a loose body in his ankle, he won’t undergo surgery and will instead receive an injection to alleviate some of the discomfort he’s been experiencing. The hope is that Alvarez could resume baseball activities as soon as next week.

Alvarez, 20, ranks among the top ten prospects in all of baseball on the majority of publications and is currently the game’s top-ranked prospect at FanGraphs and MLB.com. He tore through Double-A pitching earlier this season despite being one of the league’s youngest players, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers and 16 doubles through 296 plate appearances. However, Alvarez stumbled a bit in Triple-A, slashing just .180/.340/.378 in his first 141 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in Double-A to 28.4% in Triple-A. Alvarez hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 23.

A few more notes on some of the game’s top prospects…

  • Rangers fans are (understandably) clamoring for third baseman Josh Jung to make his Major League debut, and general manager Chris Young and interim manager Tony Beasley discussed with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the team’s decision to hold off on promoting him just yet. Texas is also taking a look at infield prospect Ezequiel Duran, who’s playing third base in the big leagues right now and would be displaced with a Jung promotion. “We have an opportunity to play [Duran] and we just want to take advantage of that until it’s not there,” Beasley said. From a bigger picture vantage point, Jung still has just 83 plate appearances in Triple-A after missing the first four-plus months of the season due to shoulder surgery. Grant points out that Jung still hasn’t gone a full week playing third base every day — he’s spent eight games at DH — and the Rangers will want to see him at the hot corner as much as possible in the big leagues. When Jung originally underwent surgery, the expectation was that he’d miss the majority of the season and perhaps be able to DH for a few weeks late in the year. He’s beaten both the timeline and that DH-only projection, and he’s decimated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .299/.349/.610 batting line. It still seems Jung will debut in the near future, but Young emphasized the organization is focused on his long-term outlook rather than getting his bat into the big league lineup as soon as possible.
  • While slugger Triston Casas wasn’t among the Red Sox’ initial September call-ups, manager Alex Cora said on WEEI’s Merloni, Fauria & Mego show this week that the team has discussed giving Casas his first taste of the big leagues sometime this month (Twitter link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Casas, 22, missed two months with a high ankle sprain but has been excellent since returning to the lineup in Triple-A Worcester, hitting .300/.410/.515 with five homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 156 plate appearances. The 6’4″, 252-pound first baseman is considered one of the best bats in the minors and ranks 31st or better among all MLB prospects at The Athletic, MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. The Red Sox will have to add Casas to the 40-man roster this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft anyhow, so there’s plenty of reason to get an earlier look at him.
  • Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez made his first appearance for an Orioles affiliate in three months last night, returning from a Grade 2 lat strain that, at one point, threatened the remainder of his season. Rodriguez threw just 31 pitches in 1 1/3 innings with Class-A Aberdeen and exited after back-to-back walks in the second inning. He told reporters after the game that he’d simply hit the pitch count the organization placed upon his first appearance since June 1 (link via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). Considered by many to be the game’s top pitching prospect, Rodriguez overwhelmed Triple-A lineups prior to his injury, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a 37.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate through 56 innings. He’s not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but he’ll need to be added in the offseason or else be Rule 5-eligible, so it’s at least possible the O’s call him up for a big league debut late in the regular season if his rehab work progresses nicely.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Rangers Notes: Young, Jung, Venable

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It’s been a tumultuous week in the world of the Texas Rangers, with manager Chris Woodward getting fired on Monday and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels following him out the door on Wednesday. With the departure of Daniels, general manager Chris Young took over as the chief baseball decision maker in Texas. However, Young apparently didn’t see this changed role coming, with the club’s managing partner Ray Davis telling Kennedi Landry of MLB.com that Young was “shocked” by the dismissal of Daniels.

It’s certainly been an unusual journey for Young in recent years. The 43-year-old former big league hurler pitched through the 2017 season and even signed a minor league deal with the Padres for 2018. He was eventually released and was hired by MLB in May of that year to be a vice president of on-field operations. Just over two years later, December of 2020, he was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager. In the tweet above, Landry relays that he and Daniels had been working pretty much side-by-side since then. Given his less than two years of experience working for the front office of a major league baseball team, it seems fair to assume that he learned a lot from Daniels, who was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager 17 years ago. Given that difference in their respective résumés, it’s hardly surprising that Young was taken off-guard by the news, suddenly finding himself atop the decision making pyramid after such a short time on the job.

Young spoke to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News about his hectic week. “I was trying to make sure that collectively, everybody, especially the longest-tenured employees, had a show of support in terms of just knowing the emotions they are going through,” Young said. “But I want to keep everybody focused on the task at hand. We have great things happening.”

Young was also asked about the future plans for the front office, perhaps hiring a new president of baseball operations or maybe a new general manager with Young getting promoted to the POBO role. “We’ll assess our needs as we go,” Young said on that topic. “It’s a natural part of the seasonal cycle. We will see what our needs are, what it looks like moving forward. We’ll probably lose some good employees to other organizations. That is just part of the hiring process. The first steps are making sure we get all our ducks lined up. But it will be part of the discussion.” With the offseason now just over two months away, Young will have to act quickly to align those ducks.

Other notes out of Texas…

  • A promotion of prospect Josh Jung doesn’t appear to be close, with interim manager Tony Beasley saying as much to Jeff Wilson of Rangerstoday.com. This past winter, the young third baseman seemed like a candidate to crack the club’s Opening Day roster or at least make his major league debut shortly after. However, he required shoulder surgery in February, which was expected to keep him out of action for six months and thereby kick his debut down the road. He began a rehab assignment at the end of July and has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since. In eight games in the Complex League, he hit .240/.345/.600, followed by seven Triple-A games with a line of .414/.485/1.034. That’s an incredible showing in that small sample, but the club considers this to be Jung’s Spring Training, which means they’re focused on getting his body re-acclimated to regular playing time. That news might be disappointing to fans of the club who are looking forward to seeing Jung tackle big league pitching before the offseason begins. However, it’s worth pointing out that these things can change quickly. Just a few days ago, the Mets insisted they weren’t promoting their own young third baseman, Brett Baty, before announcing the very next day that he was indeed getting called up. Jung isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in a few months, meaning the Rangers will need to add him soon either way.
  • With Woodward’s firing, the club will have to think about who they want to be in the manager’s chair next year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Red Sox bench coach Will Venable is one potential candidate. The 39-year-old played nine seasons in the majors, mostly with the Padres, before transitioning into other roles. In 2017, he joined the Cubs, first as a special assistant to president Theo Epstein, then spending some time as first base coach and third base coach. He became the Red Sox bench coach prior to the 2021 season and has been in that job since. This wouldn’t be the first time his name has been floated in managerial rumors, as he was connected to the Cubs, Giants and Astros prior to 2020, the Tigers and Red Sox prior to 2021 and the A’s prior to 2022. Given that repeated interest, it seems he has a strong reputation around the league and could get consideration for vacancies again this winter. In addition to the Rangers, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Angels have fired their managers and hired interim replacements this year.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Injury Notes: Hendricks, Borucki, Jung

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Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks underwent an MRI yesterday that will determine whether the veteran starter will be able to return this season, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced to reporters (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). It’s been more than a month since a shoulder strain sent Hendricks to the injured list, and the last update from the team (prior to this MRI revelation) came back on July 13, when Hendricks was shut down from throwing for three weeks. Presumably, the Cubs will get multiple opinions on the MRI results before making a determination and ultimately making an announcement regarding the 32-year-old righty.

Hendricks, a former MLB leader in ERA and third-place finisher in Cy Young voting (both in 2016), is in the third guaranteed season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract that also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign. He’s made 16 starts for the Cubs this season and logged a 4.80 ERA — a near-mirror image of last year’s 4.77 mark across 32 outings. The Cubs owe him $14MM in 2023, and there’s a $1.5MM buyout on a $16MM team option for the 2024 season.

Some more injury scenarios that merit attention…

  • Left-hander Ryan Borucki, the lone southpaw in the Mariners’ bullpen, will undergo an MRI after exiting last night’s game with a forearm strain, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Divish notes that Mariners skipper Scott Servais “would prefer to have a lefty out of the bullpen if possible.” The only other lefty option on the 40-man roster is rookie Brennan Bernardino, who has all of 2 1/3 Major League innings under his belt. The M’s do have Roenis Elias, Fernando Abad and Nick Ramirez as non-40-man options in Triple-A Tacoma, and each has posted anywhere from passable to strong numbers with the Rainiers thus far. Borucki, 28, has pitched 19 1/3 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Seattle since being acquired from the Jays back in June.
  • Rangers top prospect Josh Jung will come off the minor league injured list and make his season debut with Triple-A Round Rock tonight, tweets Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. The 24-year-old Jung, whom Texas tabbed with the No. 8 overall pick back in 2019, entered the season as one of the sport’s top overall prospects but required surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder in late February. At the time, it was believed that Jung would need about six months to be ready just to serve as a designated hitter in a game setting, but he’s beaten that timeline considerably, as Landry notes that he’s slated to play third base tonight and has already played in eight rehab games with the organization’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League. Jung hit .326/.398/.592 in 342 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season and, prior to the injury, was seen as a candidate to make his big league debut this year. Now that he’s back in action at Triple-A with two months of season left, it’s again feasible he could reach the Majors in 2022.

Rangers Top Prospect Josh Jung Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Rangers top prospect Josh Jung underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder this morning, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). It’s expected to be about six months before he’s cleared to even begin serving as a designated hitter in games. Jung sustained the injury recently while lifting weights as part of his offseason training regimen. Texas had already shut him down, but the hope was that he could avoid surgery. After receiving additional medical opinions this week, however, surgery was deemed the necessary course of treatment.

It’s a brutal blow for the Rangers, who hoped last year could serve as the final full year of development for Jung. A big league debut at some point in 2022 was widely expected after the 2019 No. 8 overall pick laid waste to Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2021. In 342 plate appearances between those two levels, Jung slashed a combined .326/.398/.592 with 19 home runs, 22 doubles, a triple, a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate.

There was some thought that with a big enough spring showing, Jung could even position himself as a candidate to break camp with the Rangers. Texas is clearly shifting from its prior rebuilding mode into a win-now mindset, as evidenced by their offseason signings of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. Jung is the overwhelming favorite to eventually slot in as the team’s everyday third baseman, and most scouting reports on the promising former Texas Tech star expect him to do just that. He ranked as the No. 26 prospect in MLB at Baseball America this winter, No. 31 at Baseball Prospectus and No. 19 at ESPN. The team at FanGraphs was most bullish on Jung, placing a 60 grade on him overall (on the 20-80 scale) and ranking him inside the sport’s 15 best farmhands.

Any coronation of Jung as the team’s everyday third baseman is now on hold for the majority of the 2022 season — if not until the 2023 campaign. With Jung now out of the picture for the foreseeable future, versatile defensive star Isiah Kiner-Falefa finds himself shifting from a super-utility role (and interesting trade candidate) to the team’s primary option at the hot corner.

The 26-year-old Kiner-Falefa is well equipped to handle such a role, as he proved in 2020 when he won a Gold Glove Award at third base. He moved to shortstop for the 2021 campaign and turned in another strong defensive showing, although the potential drop-off from Jung to Kiner-Falefa from an offensive standpoint is likely to be steep. Talented as he is with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is primarily a singles hitter who rarely walks. He’s posted a .273/.316/.361 batting line over the past two seasons, which is productive enough to provide value when combined with his defensive prowess, but Jung has quite a bit more power and is widely expected to be an impact performer on offense.

Offensive gap between the two notwithstanding, Kiner-Falefa is a solid option to have on hand. He had reportedly been of interest to the Yankees as a possible trade candidate prior to the lockout, but Jung’s injury surely dampens the possibility that the Rangers would consider parting with Kiner-Falefa. While they could, speculatively speaking, still move Kiner-Falefa if a compelling enough offer presents itself and follow that trade with a short-term free agent signing, the likelier scenario is that Kiner-Falefa will be manning the hot corner at Globe Life Field for the vast majority of the 2022 season. Should Seager or Semien find themselves out of the lineup, Kiner-Falefa could step in for either player, with 28-year-old Andy Ibanez providing some additional cover at second base and third base.

Rangers Prospect Josh Jung Shut Down Due To Shoulder Strain

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Feb. 21: Jung is expected to receive additional opinions this week, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who ominously adds that the injury could ultimately require surgery.

Feb. 18: The Rangers have shut down third base prospect Josh Jung after he strained the labrum in his left shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic). He incurred the injury while recently lifting weights as part of his preseason training program.

Texas didn’t announce a timetable for his return. He’s slated to undergo further evaluation next week, and it’s possible the injury will prove to be a minor setback. If the issue were to affect his readiness for the start of the season, though, it might delay his big league debut. Jung is widely expected to reach the majors this year after splitting the 2021 campaign between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock. He raked at both stops, hitting .308/.366/.544 in Double-A before improving to a .348/.436/.652 showing at the minors’ top level.

Those numbers may have been inflated a touch by a smaller sample, as he was limited to 342 cumulative plate appearances after a stress fracture in his foot delayed his season debut until mid-June. Nevertheless, the right-handed hitter impressed enough in the summer’s final few months to cement his place among the game’s top prospects. The eighth overall pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech (where his brother Jace currently stars), Jung has always hit when healthy. Baseball America rated him among the game’s top 30 prospects this winter, writing that his hit/power combination gives him a chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat.

Jung isn’t regarded as a superlative defender at the hot corner, but evaluators generally believe he could be anywhere from serviceable to solid there. Between those glowing scouting reviews and his high minors performance, the 24-year-old looks likely to get an everyday crack in Arlington at some point in the near future. Jung’s looming arrival — coupled with the free agent spending spree that landed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager — has contributed to some speculation Texas could make infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa available in trade after the lockout.

Without a definitive timetable on Jung, it’s too early to tell whether his injury will affect the front office’s plans for when the transactions freeze concludes. Obviously, it’s also not clear precisely when the MLB season will begin. (Jung is not on the 40-man roster, so he’s not subject to the lockout). Even if the injury lingers past the scheduled start date of the major league season, it’s possible the lockout will carry on long enough that the injury won’t affect his MLB timetable anyhow. Much about the situation remains uncertain, but the Rangers figure to play things very cautiously with one of the most talented young players in the organization.

The Rangers’ Underappreciated Trade Chip

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The Rangers’ decision to cannonball into the deep end of the free-agent pool this offseason has radically reshaped their infield mix and given them one of the top offensive double-play tandems in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are slated to hold down the shortstop/second base pairing in Arlington for the next seven seasons.

One side effect of that seismic splash is that it leaves Isiah Kiner-Falefa without a clear-cut defensive home. A Gold Glove winner at third base in 2020, Kiner-Falefa played a strong shortstop in 2021 and had been squarely atop the depth chart there prior to the Seager/Semien stunner. That’s no longer the case, though not through any fault of his own. Kiner-Falefa has been an elite fielder by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and finished third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. Metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average aren’t as bullish, but Kiner-Falefa is at worst regarded as a roughly average defender (and generally agreed upon as a good bit more than that).

Beyond his accolades with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is fairly a solid performer at the plate, albeit in more of an “old school” manner. He’s been 13 percent worse than the average hitter, by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+, over the past two seasons — but that’s primarily due to a lack of power. Kiner-Falefa has still posted a solid .273 batting average and a respectable .316 on-base percentage in that time. He’s only drawn a walk in 4.6% of his past 905 plate appearances, but he’s also only fanned in 13.5% of those trips to the plate.

There’s plenty of value derived from Kiner-Falefa’s ability on the basepaths as well. He went 20-for-25 in stolen-base attempts this past season and ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. On top of that, Kiner-Falefa has played in all but six of the Rangers’ games dating back to 2020. Only six big league players have appeared in more games than Kiner-Falefa over those two years.

He may not be a star, but Kiner-Falefa is a good defender and baserunner who rarely strikes out and, despite a lack of power, at least gives his club solid at-bats. That’s a valuable player, even if the overall skill set is a bit less typical now than it’d have been a generation ago. A simple course of action is to just shift Kiner-Falefa back to the hot corner, where he won that previously mentioned Gold Glove in 2020. That’d be a straightforward means of addressing the infield, were it not for the presence of fast-rising prospect Josh Jung.

The 24-year-old Jung was the No. 8 overall draft pick in 2019 and has done nothing but hit since he made his professional debut. The former Texas Tech star is widely considered to be among the 40 or so best prospects in all of Major League Baseball and is expected to make his debut in 2022. It’s even arguable that with a good Spring Training showing, Jung could merit an immediate look in the big leagues. He posted a dominant .326/.398/.592 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year, after all, including a ridiculous .348/.436/.652 output with nine home runs and 14 doubles in 156 Triple-A plate appearances.

Jung has played exclusively at third base in the minors, although as The Athletic’s Keith Law noted in ranking Jung 32nd on his Top 100 prospect list, the Rangers did play him at a few different positions in 2020 at their alternate site. Still, Law calls Jung a solid-average third baseman, and scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com have generally agreed that Jung should be able to handle the position from a defensive standpoint.

Even if the expectation is that Jung rises quickly to the big leagues — be it Opening Day, late April or mid-June — the Rangers don’t necessarily need to do anything with Kiner-Falefa. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $4.9MM salary in 2022 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2023 season. Asking Kiner-Falefa to keep the hot corner warm for Jung before moving into a super-utility role is a perfectly sound and defensible course of action for a team that is striving for immediately improved on-field results. Kiner-Falefa has strong defensive ratings at each of shortstop, third base and second base — and while he struggled when trying to work as a catcher early in his career, he does at least have 586 MLB innings at the position. At the very least, he’s a better option there than most emergency catchers.

Still, that versatility and affordability also create another path for the Rangers to take: trade Kiner-Falefa to a team that has an immediate infield need. Even with Seager, Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun, the Rangers aren’t expected to compete in 2022. They’re likely looking at 2023 and beyond, when Jung, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and other top prospects will be more seasoned at the MLB level. Trading Kiner-Falefa now for one more jolt of young talent does carry some long-term appeal, even if it perhaps costs Texas a few wins in the forthcoming season.

The Yankees, for instance, have already been linked to Kiner-Falefa. If they’re indeed reluctant to sign one of the remaining premier shortstops (i.e. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story) to a long-term contract as they instead await the arrival of ballyhooed prospect Anthony Volpe, then Kiner-Falefa would make sense as a quality stopgap who could hold the fort down for the entire 2022 season at the least.

New York is far from the only on-paper fit. The Twins don’t have a clear starter at shortstop at the moment, nor do the Angels. The Astros are still planning for how they’ll replace Correa if he ultimately signs elsewhere, and the Phillies could use a defensive upgrade over Didi Gregorius. Looking to other positions that Kiner-Falefa can handle, the White Sox could install him at second base. The Blue Jays could look for help at either third base or second base.

Suffice it to say, there’s a fairly wide swath of teams that could and quite likely will show interest in Kiner-Falefa when the lockout lifts. Will the Rangers actually make a move, though? That much depends on the strength of offers received.

Texas isn’t going to move Kiner-Falefa solely because of his modest arbitration salary and the fact that he could eventually be used in more of a utility role. If a team makes a strong offer, though, the newfound infield depth will surely prompt president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young to consider the idea. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has suggested a couple of times this month that a trade might be likelier late in Spring Training, once Texas has a better sense of where Jung is and once other clubs know what to make of their internal options around the infield.

However things play out, Kiner-Falefa is now a rather valuable luxury item in Texas: well-rounded enough to start at three different infield positions but still likely one step down the depth chart at each spot by season’s end in 2022. Kiner-Falefa has quietly become an underappreciated trade chip, but if the offers presented to Daniels & Co. aren’t sufficient, it never hurts to have an overqualified depth piece in the event of injuries to big-name veterans or a slow start from a top prospect.

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