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2023-24 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers lost their manager and traded their ace. They also focused on big league talent in their trade returns and added several win-now veterans as they look to stay relevant in a wide-open National League Central division.

Major League Signings

2024 Spending: $39.75MM
Total Spending: $72.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The manager’s chair hasn’t been a question for the Brewers in nearly a decade. Craig Counsell helmed the Brew Crew from 2015-23, guiding the club to a 707-625 record (.531) and five postseason appearances in nine seasons. His status as a managerial free agent was a major storyline early in the offseason not only for the Brewers but for several clubs around the sport. The Mets, Astros and Guardians were all connected to Counsell after his contract expired on Nov. 1, but the Cubs made a surprise push to bring in their longtime division foe, dismissing David Ross and signing Counsell to a record-setting five-year deal that’s worth a reported $40MM.

The Brewers not only lost their longtime skipper but also their longtime president of baseball operations. David Stearns stepped down following the 2022 season but stuck with Milwaukee in an advisory role for the 2023 season. After his own contract expired, perhaps baseball’s worst-kept secret quickly came to fruition; Stearns accepted the job as president of baseball operations for his hometown Mets, departing the Milwaukee organization entirely one year after ceding baseball operations autonomy to current GM Matt Arnold.

Arnold’s presence gave the Brewers’ front office some continuity even as Stearns departed, and Milwaukee opted for continuity in the dugout as well. Although they were tied to a host of external candidates (e.g. Toronto’s Don Mattingly, Houston’s Joe Espada, L.A.’s Clayton McCullough), the Brewers stayed in-house and elevated bench coach Pat Murphy to the skipper’s chair. Murphy, who previously coached Counsell in his college days at Notre Dame, had served as Counsell’s bench coach since 2015. He lacks big league managing experience but has two decades of NCAA experience and is quite familiar with the Brewers organization, their current talent and the upcoming wave of prospects.

As for the roster itself, starting pitching has been the hallmark of the Brewers for several years, with co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff atop the rotation and the underrated Freddy Peralta standing as an overqualified “third” starter. That all changed in a back-and-forth offseason that at times left fans wondering whether the Brewers were rebuilding or whether they were fully committed to winning in 2024. Toeing that line is nothing new for the Brewers, who regularly make hard roster decisions and trade players with dwindling control for MLB-ready prospects.

Setting aside the turnover with regard to some of the team’s key decision-making personnel, the offseason was in many was bookended by a pair of seismic transactions regarding their longtime one-two punch. Woodruff was non-tendered in November after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to wipe out the majority of his 2024 season. And while it took Arnold & Co. most of the offseason to make it happen, they traded Burnes for a pair of immediate, controllable big leaguers and the Orioles’ Competitive Balance pick (No. 34) in this summer’s draft.

Joey Ortiz stepped right into the Brewers’ infield, and they’ll hope he can hold down a role there for six or more years. He’s controllable through at least the 2029 season and is a premium defensive player with modest power, above-average speed and a plus hit tool that gives him a chance to hit for average. He’ll play second base and third base in 2024, but if impending free agent Willy Adames departs either at the trade deadline or in free agency this winter, Ortiz has the defensive chops to step right in at shortstop.

Left-hander DL Hall, the other player to come over from the O’s in the Burnes swap, jumped right into the rotation spot vacated by the former NL Cy Young winner. Like Ortiz, he’s a touted prospect who’s drawn his share of top-100 fanfare in recent years. Scouts question whether the 2017 first-rounder (No. 21 overall) has the command to stick in a big league rotation, but even if he doesn’t, Hall’s velocity and quality secondary pitches give him a good chance at being a high-end leverage reliever.

Burnes was one of four notable veterans whom the Brewers traded away this offseason — and the returns on the others weren’t as impactful. Mark Canha was flipped to the Tigers in exchange for minor league righty Blake Holub — a 25-year-old relief prospect who’d yet to pitch in Triple-A at the time of the swap.

Right-hander Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor were both targets of Stearns with the Mets. He acquired his two former players in exchange for an upside play for the Brewers’ development staff: righty Coleman Crow. The former 28th-round pick signed for fifth-round money with the Angels back in 2021. He’s now twice been traded and made only four starts last year before requiring Tommy John surgery.

Mark Chiarelli wrote for Baseball America at the time of the trade why some of Crow’s fastball traits and his curveball movement made him a favorite of analytically inclined clubs. Unlike Ortiz, Hall and Holub, he’s further from MLB readiness. But Houser is a back-end starter entering his final season of club control and Taylor is a fourth outfielder coming off a down year at the plate. Adding some legitimate upside, even if it comes with significant injury concern, surely held appeal.

Subtracting Burnes, Houser, Woodruff, Canha and Taylor was a notable hit for the Brewers — particularly with veterans Carlos Santana, Victor Caratini and Andrew Chafin all hitting free agency. However, the Brewers never seemed interested in any sort of protracted rebuild. That was never Stearns’ M.O. and doesn’t seem to be Arnold’s, either. The Brewers could’ve traded Peralta (signed through 2026), Devin Williams (signed through 2025) and Adames (controlled for this season only), kept payroll in the gutter and made the 2024 season one focused primarily on development.

Instead, they made a slew of short-term free agent investments that helped backfill some rotation depth and add some punch to the lineup. No free agent pickup was larger — either in pure financial terms or in terms of potential 2024 impact — than Rhys Hoskins, who inked a two-year, $34MM deal to step an everyday role between first base and designated hitter. Hoskins is playing his first season since 2022, as a spring ACL tear cost him all of 2023. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end and quite likely will, if he performs anywhere close to his prior standards in Philadelphia. He gives the Brewers a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat at first base — something they’ve lacked in recent years. As a bonus, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning he’s eligible to receive one at season’s end if he indeed takes that opt-out.

In addition to first base, Milwaukee stocked up on catcher depth and brought in some low-cost bench help. Eric Haase signed a one-year, split big league deal and was set to be the backup catcher — until he very suddenly wasn’t. Gary Sanchez’s price tag dropped to the point where the Brewers opportunistically snagged him as well, inking him to a one-year deal worth $3MM in guaranteed money (restructured from his original $7MM guarantee after some concerns arose on his physical). That pushed the out-of-options Haase, who had a mammoth spring showing, off the 40-man roster. The Brewers succeeded in passing him through waivers, and Haase opened the year in Triple-A to serve as a very nice piece of depth behind the dish.

Other bench pickups included journeyman first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers and unheralded infield prospect Oliver Dunn, acquired from the Phillies. Bauers hasn’t hit in the big leagues but showed enough power and plate discipline with the Yankees last year that the Brewers traded some low-level prospects for him. Dunn was a squeezed out of the Phillies’ 40-man picture thanks to a crowded infield mix, but he posted huge Triple-A numbers last year and won a roster spot in Milwaukee with a big showing in camp. He’s been excellent so far in his brief MLB debut. Veteran Christian Arroyo joins that bench depth as a minor league signee who opened the year on the Triple-A injured list.

As those bench pieces filtered in, others familiar faces moved out. Abraham Toro and Taylor were traded. Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered. Santana, Caratini and Jesse Winker reached free agency. Fringe 40-man arms Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews were traded for modest returns. Bullpen fliers Taylor Clarke and Bryan Hudson were added via trades that sent a series of low-profile prospects to Kansas City and Los Angeles, respectively.

Perhaps the biggest area in need of an overhaul was the rotation. With Woodruff injured and non-tendered and Burnes (eventually) traded, things would’ve looked unsettled, to say the least, without some form of reinforcements. Milwaukee didn’t break the bank but brokered affordable one-year deals with a returning Wade Miley, a returning Colin Rea, swingman Jakob Junis (who’s pitching in a starting role) and former Nats righty Joe Ross, who’s returning from several injury-ruined years.

Milwaukee also surprised some by ultimately retaining Woodruff on a two-year, $17.5MM deal that’ll pay him just $2.5MM in 2024 and $5MM in 2025. There’s a $10MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for the 2026 season that is highly unlikely to be exercised but helps Milwaukee kick some of the payments down the road a bit. That move won’t make a big impact for ’24, unless Woodruff returns for a theoretical playoff push, but it’s a big boost to their 2025 outlook when Woodruff can rejoin Peralta and some combination of Hall, Rea, Aaron Ashby, top prospect Robert Gasser and any other external additions in the rotation mix.

Miley and Rea were both with the Brewers last year. Rea technically never reached free agency before signing a new one-year deal with a club option. He can max out at two years and $10MM on the contract and should at the very least eat up some innings near the back of the rotation. Miley, currently nursing a minor shoulder issue, has had a late-career renaissance in the NL Central. Over the past three seasons he’s pitched with the Cubs, Reds and Brewers — combining for a 3.26 ERA in 320 1/3 innings. After signing, he was open about how his priority had been to return to Milwaukee. Ross has shown solid strikeout capabilities and good command at his best, but he’s been beset by injuries. His Brewers debut was his first MLB appearance since the 2021 season.

While the Rea deal technically counts as an extension, given the timing of the deal, that clearly wasn’t the team’s big extension move of the offseason. That came in the form of a record-setting eight-year, $82MM deal for 20-year-old Jackson Chourio, who entered the season as a consensus top-five prospect in the sport. Chourio spent the 2023 season as one of the youngest players in Double-A, though you wouldn’t have known he was 19 by looking at his numbers. The uber-talented Venezuelan outfielder hit .280/.336/.467 with 22 homers, 44 steals, plus defense and just an 18.4% strikeout rate against much older competition. He cracked the Brewers’ Opening Day roster, and the hope is that he can be a foundational piece for the better part of a decade.

There’s clear risk when signing a player who’s never taken a single big league at-bat to this type of contract. The Brewers invested just $2MM more in a then-19-year-old Chourio than they did in Lorenzo Cain when he was one of the market’s top free agents. Milwaukee already controlled Chourio for six, if not seven seasons (depending on when they’d have chosen to call him up sans extension). They’re buying three or four extra years of control with this deal, which would be worth 10 years and $130MM if both options are exercised (with the potential for more based on MVP voting).

It’s a steep bet for a team that tends to operate with a mid-range payroll, but it’s a necessary one of they were to have any real hope at keeping Chourio beyond his initial window of club control. Extensions for young stars like Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez (12 years, $209MM) and Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years, $288.7MM) show just how expensive a star player can get after even a year or two of MLB service. Milwaukee, already with Christian Yelich’s nine-year, $215MM contract on the books, surely was none too keen on the notion of dishing out a second $200MM+ contract down the road. The Brewers clearly believe Chourio has star potential, and even if he settles in as “only” an average regular, the contract would hardly be an egregious overpay.

The 2024 Brewers scarcely resemble the 2023 unit — particularly with Williams on the shelf for the next several months due to stress fractures in his back — but there’s a nice crop of young talent bubbling up. If they’re not contending when the deadline rolls around, expect veterans like Adames, Williams (if healthy), Junis, Sanchez and others to hit the trade block. But the NL Central also lacks a clear favorite, and there’s enough promising young talent on the Milwaukee roster (e.g. Ortiz, Hall, Chourio, Sal Frelick) and enough established contributors (e.g. Peralta, Adames, Yelich, Hoskins, William Contreras) that this club could very well be right back in the mix even after subtracting a series of high-profile names.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox had a very quiet offseason, as their big moves were trading away one starting pitcher and signing another, though the latter of the two eventually required season-ending surgery.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $23.25MM
Total spending: $50.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Red Sox franchise has seemingly decided that it does not want to be a powerhouse anymore. For the first two decades of this millennium, they were incredibly aggressive, running top five payrolls for most of that time. That aggression paid off handsomely, as the Sox broke their 86-year curse and won the World Series four times from 2004 to 2018.

But since then, their top priority has seemingly been to cut the budget. After the fourth title in 2018, they seemingly wanted to trim the payroll but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski wouldn’t do it, so they let him go. That led the club to bring in Chaim Bloom from the Rays, hoping that he could bring some small-market tactics to their large-market club. Shortly after he was hired in October of 2019, he traded Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in what was largely a cost-cutting move.

In 2023, the payroll had fallen to middle of the pack as they started the season 12th out of 30, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In September of 2023, the fourth season with Bloom in charge, the Sox were about to finish last in the American League East for the second time in a row and for the third time in the four Bloom years. This was apparently enough for the franchise to make another change, as they let Bloom go before last year’s season was up.

This meant Boston started the offseason looking for a new person to head up the baseball operations department, but it was a tough pitch, with many candidates quickly withdrawing their names or declining to be interviewed. After all, who would want to work for a club that’s going to provide you with few resources and then put your head under the axe when things don’t go well? But in the end, they settled on Craig Breslow, a former player and Yale graduate who had been an assistant GM in the Cubs’ front office. They also brought back old friend Theo Epstein, but he’ll be in a part ownership and advisory role, seemingly not active in the baseball decisions on a day-to-day basis.

Some wondered if the move from Bloom to Breslow would lead ownership to sign off on a bigger budget, in order to convince fans they were moving away from nickel-and-diming and returning to their aggressive ways. Chairman Tom Werner seemed to fan these flames in November when he declared that the club was going to “be full-throttle in every possible way.” Breslow did promise to be aggressive, particularly in targeting starting pitching, but the offseason ended up being mostly about shuffling deck chairs. They sniffed around the markets for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but never seemed to be the favorites in those markets.

In the rotation, where the club was reportedly looking to shop at the top of the market, their big splash was to sign Lucas Giolito. It was a sensible buy-low move, since he had previously looked like a borderline ace but hit a rough patch before free agency. If he could get back to his form from a few years ago, it would be a steal.

Around the same time, they also subtracted from their rotation by sending Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom. The young Grissom came up as a shortstop prospect, with great offensive skills but questions about his defense. Atlanta decided to roll with Orlando Arcia at short last year, but moving Grissom to second wasn’t an option for them with Ozzie Albies there, which made Grissom more useful as a trade chip.

The two moves together looked like a fine bit of business for Boston. In the rotation, they swapped in Giolito for Sale, arguably a wash depending on your opinions of those pitchers. Alongside that, they added a potential everyday second baseman, a position that’s been a bit of a carousel for Boston since the Dustin Pedroia days.

Unfortunately, Giolito was later diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. He required internal brace surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. The Sox didn’t pivot and add another starter, so the rotation that was a clear priority all winter is essentially the same as last year but minus Sale. Grissom still hasn’t made his debut with the Sox thanks to a groin strain, though he should be with the club in a few weeks.

Although that bad news about Giolito didn’t drop until early March, the Sox still had a chance to pivot. Thanks to a surprisingly slow offseason, pitchers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell were still available in the later stages of the winter. The fit with Montgomery and the Sox had been speculated upon all winter, especially since he was spending some time in the area as his wife was doing a residency at a Boston hospital. But the Sox decided not to rush out to the market to replace Giolito, letting Montgomery go to the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal and even letting a back-of-the-rotation guy like Michael Lorenzen sign with the Rangers for a mere $4.5MM.

In addition to Montgomery, the club had plenty of interest in other free agents, including Yariel Rodríguez, Seth Lugo, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Robert Stephenson, Shota Imanaga and many others. Ultimately, their other most significant moves were somewhat similar to the Giolito/Sale swap. They traded outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for a collection of arms, while also flipping a couple of other pitchers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill.

Both outfielders are impending free agents, so the two moves don’t make a huge difference to the franchise right away, but it’s a sensible enough swap for them to make. Verdugo has seemingly established what he is at this point, a solid defender with an average-ish bat, a good but not excellent player. His value wasn’t going to get much higher, as even a hot couple of months early in 2024 would come with some skepticism.

O’Neill, on the other hand, has borderline MVP upside. He finished eighth in National League MVP voting after hitting 34 home runs, stealing 15 bases and providing excellent defense that year. He’s been hampered by injuries in the two seasons since, but it makes sense for the Sox to give him regular playing time and see what happens. If he can get back in good form by the end of July, he could have more trade value than when they acquired him. He’s also making $5.85MM this year compared to Verdugo’s $8.7MM.

The Sox also considered some further teardown moves, with Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Masataka Yoshida’s names all floated in rumors throughout the winter. None of that trio ended up leaving Boston, though the Sox did trade reliever John Schreiber to the Royals for pitching prospect David Sandlin.

Ultimately, it seems the franchise is focused more on the future than the present. None of the free agents they signed added any money beyond 2025 and their second-largest free agent deal was for reliever Liam Hendriks. He’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t pitch until around the trade deadline, at the earliest, but he could give the club a future closer with Jansen and Martin set to become free agents after 2024.

Their most significant contract was an extension for right-hander Brayan Bello, who they inked to a six-year, $55MM pact. It’s a bit of a risk since his major league work has been more decent than great so far, relying on a ground ball approach without many punchouts. But he had more strikeout stuff in the minors and could take a step forward in the years to come.

Extending other young players was also discussed, though without anything getting done so far. Right-hander Tanner Houck and first baseman Triston Casas were frequently mentioned as candidates for such a deal but nothing was finalized before the 2024 season started.

For the time being, it seems the club is content to roll with their internal options and see how things go. The 2024 season will involve a lot of playing time going to young guys like Grissom, Houck, Casas, Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Kutter Crawford. At the same time, the club will surely be keeping a close eye on prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel,  Nick Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez and Roman Anthony, who are all starting this year at Double-A and could be pushing for big league debuts throughout the year.

The performance of those players will likely dictate how the club decides to proceed next winter and beyond. Whether that will even see them returning to a top-five payroll remains to be seen. Like last year, they came into 2024 with their payroll 12th in the league, per Cot’s. If that is your definition of “full throttle,” raise your hand.

While that plays out, there’s another unanswered question surrounding the club, as manager Álex Cora is now in a lame duck position as 2024 is the final year of his contract. He’s been coy about his future plans, with some suggesting he wants to move into a front office position while others believe he wants to take the Craig Counsell route and max out his next contract as a manager. Whether either of those paths lead to him staying in Boston is something that will have to be revealed in time.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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As Shohei Ohtani reached free agency, the Angels declared that they would not rebuild. But after Ohtani moved across town to the Dodgers, the Angels kept things pretty quiet, ignoring the pleas of Mike Trout.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $29.55MM
Total spending: $51.55MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None.

Notable Losses

Many people in the baseball world have been looking forward to this offseason for a long time. Shohei Ohtani has spent the past few years achieving things that were never achieved before nor even considered possible. But despite his best efforts, the Angels never made the postseason or even posted a winning record during his time with the club. As the Halos continually disappointed, eyes turned toward the calendar and his impending free agency, with fans dreaming of bringing Ohtani to their own club or perhaps just the idea of watching him playing meaningful games for anyone.

It wasn’t a foregone conclusion that Ohtani would leave, but they were certainly not the favorite. That led to questions about how the club would proceed if Ohtani did end up changing jerseys. As many argued, if the Angels weren’t good enough to win with Ohtani, they certainly wouldn’t be good enough without him. That led to speculation that the club would have to consider blowing up the entire roster and kicking off a massive rebuild.

But that line of thinking was quickly dispelled when general manager Perry Minasian came right out and made it clear. Just a couple of weeks after the World Series ended, he stated that the club would not be rebuilding and would in fact have an “aggressive” offseason.

Before getting to the roster moves, the club had to look for a new manager. Skipper Phil Nevin was sort of a placeholder, as he took over when Joe Maddon was fired in the middle of the 2022 season. Nevin was given a one-year deal to stick around for 2023 but never made it beyond lame duck status. The Halos settled on veteran manager and coach Ron Washington as their new bench boss, and it was at his introductory press conference that Minasian made his aforementioned comments about the club’s plans.

For the early parts of the offseason, a lot of attention was focused on Ohtani, not just from Angels’ fans but from all around the world. Though it played out in somewhat interesting fashion, with Ohtani and his reps seeming to prefer secrecy over any kind of public relations dance, the result ended up being fairly predictable. He took the I-5 from Anaheim to Los Angeles and will be playing with the Dodgers for the next decade.

Although that end result wasn’t surprising, it was a bit eyebrow-raising when it was reported that the Angels had a chance to match the Dodgers’ offer but chose not to. The $700MM price tag is obviously massive but the deal is heavily deferred, with Ohtani only making $2MM per year during the deal and $68MM annually in deferred payments for the following decade. That sort of structure was clearly appealing to clubs, who could bank profits of the marketability of Ohtani and collect interest on it until paying him down the line. The Giants and Blue Jays were reportedly willing to match the same deal that Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, but the Angels said no thanks. Perhaps they got the sense they were just being used to drive up the bidding, but that’s just a guess. Owner Arte Moreno later confirmed that the club did not match Ohtani’s deal but didn’t go into detail about why.

While losing Ohtani cast a shadow over the franchise, there was one small silver lining. Ohtani had rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels, meaning they will receive compensation for him signing elsewhere. The kind of compensation they would receive was up in the air for a while, given the club’s uncertain luxury tax status. They had gone over the competitive balance tax line in 2023 but tried to duck under after falling out of contention and placing several players on waivers in late August. It was eventually reported in early December that the club was successfully in avoiding the tax, which means their compensation pick for Ohtani’s departure will be after the second round of the upcoming draft as opposed to after the fourth.

With Ohtani officially gone and the club planning to be aggressive, as Minasian said, they seemed to cast a wide net in their search for upgrades. They were connected to an eclectic group of free agents including Jeimer Candelario, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Jordan Hicks, Teoscar Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor, Tim Anderson, Martin Maldonado and others, as well as trade candidates like Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow.

In the end, they didn’t get anything done with anyone from that group, which raises the question of how serious the interest was and of how “aggressive” the Angels truly were. Some of those players lingered on the open market for months and eventually signed deals well below the expectations from the outset of the winter. The Halos had plenty of chances to swoop in and snag a player at a bargain price but didn’t.

The later parts of the offseason were highlighted by the so-called “Boras Four:” Snell, Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. Trout was lobbying the club to take advantage of the soft market and was open to the media about his efforts, but the Halos didn’t grant his wishes, even as those players all pivoted to short-term deals with opt-outs.

The Angels certainly could have done so, even without incurring tax penalties. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number to be $189MM, or $48MM below the lowest CBT threshold. That means the club could have given out a deal with an average annual value of $30MM and still had wiggle room for midseason trade additions, but Moreno said that the club was planning to lower the budget for the start of the post-Ohtani era and that seems to have prevented them from making any big splashes.

In the end, despite the claims that the club would be aggressive, their offseason amounted to making a few bullpen additions. The most notable of those was signing Robert Stephenson to a three-year, $33MM deal. It’s a bit of a risk since he’s been inconsistent in his career, but there’s also a chance he becomes one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.

He certainly looked to be on that path late last year, as he posted a 2.35 earned run average in 42 appearances with the Rays, striking out 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7% of them. But his overall body of work is less impressive, as his career ERA currently sits at 4.64. He’s also dealt with a number of injuries over the years and is on the IL right now, not yet having made his debut as an Angel.

In addition to Stephenson, the Halos also brought back Matt Moore and signed Luis Garcia, Jose Cisnero and Adam Cimber on one-year deals. No one in that group is super exciting as an individual, but they collectively improve the depth in a bullpen that has been a problem for the Halos in the past.

On the position player side of things, the most significant additions came with no real cost at all. Aaron Hicks is still being paid by the Yankees as part of the extension he signed with that club many years ago, since they released him last year. That means the Angels will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the roster. He seemed to bounce back in a part-time role with the Orioles last year, so he’s a fine pickup for the Angels. If he’s productive at all, it’s a big win, and he can be jettisoned for no real cost if he struggles.

The same is largely true for Miguel Sano, who settled for a minor league deal over the winter. He spent an up-and-down seven years as a middle-of-the-order presence in Minnesota, but knee injuries wiped out most of his 2022 season and he didn’t play anywhere last year. He lost a bunch of weight and is now healthy enough to have cracked the Opening Day roster for the Angels, so he will also be a nice pickup for the club if he can carve out any kind of useful role this year.

While each move the Angels made may seem fairly sensible in a vacuum, the sum total of the moves is something of a confusing muddle. The club has spent decade in a middling zone of not being good enough to win but also having too much talent to rebuild. The loss of Ohtani arguably could have pushed them towards the latter. They clearly did not want to lean that way, but they also didn’t really push themselves in the other direction either.

It seems they are now in a sort of wait-and-see season. Instead of going outside the organization for star players, they will give playing time to younger players like Reid Detmers, Nolan Schanuel, Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell, Chase Silseth and others as they see what they have. Sam Blum of The Athletic recently interviewed Minasian and the GM said that the reason they didn’t end up signing notable free agents was that they didn’t want to block some of these young players from opportunities. When asked if Moreno would ever want to sign a big free agent again, “That would be a question for him” was Minasian’s reply.

There’s some logic to giving playing time to younger players but it’s a bit hard to see a bright future in Anaheim. Of the farm system rankings at Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic, none of them have the Angels higher than 28th out of 30.

Back in February, Trout said that he has not asked to be traded since that would be “the easy way out.” While his commitment to the franchise is admirable, it’s getting harder to see how he’ll get back to the playoffs as an Angel. The major league club hasn’t been good enough, just subtracted the best player in the world and added little. Based on the assessments of the farm system, there’s not a lot of help on the way in the future either.

Trout is off to a blazing hot start here in 2024 but he’s had notable injury problems in each of the past three years and will move past his 33rd birthday this year. With an unclear future, the club perhaps would have been wise to try to build a winning club around him while they still have time but didn’t really make much of an effort to do so this winter.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins idled their way through much of the offseason as the front office navigated payroll limitations before eventually making a characteristic late strike on the trade market.

Major League Contracts

2024 spend: $7.7MM
Total spend: $7.7MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Twins won the American League Central and ended their historic postseason losing streak in 2023, sweeping the Blue Jays out of the American League Wild Card round before falling 3-1 to the Astros in an ALDS defeat. Fans hoped that a taste of postseason success would spur ownership to further invest in the roster, but the Twins were one of several clubs who spent the offseason in limbo with no clear picture of what would happen regarding their television broadcasts amid Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy filings.

It became clear early in the offseason that the Twins planned to cut payroll. Front office leadership was direct in suggesting as much, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that the goal was to scale payroll back from last year’s $155MM mark to somewhere in the $125-140MM range. It was a frustrating development for a fanbase that had recently seen the Twins emerge as major players in free agency, signing Carlos Correa in back-to-back offseasons.

Not only did the looming payroll reduction prevent the Twins from bringing in new talent, it also likely sealed the fate of starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda before the offseason began in earnest. Gray, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up, made the no-brainer decision to reject a qualifying offer and unsurprisingly landed a contract north of $50MM: a three-year, $75MM pact in St. Louis. Topping the $50MM mark was key for the Twins, as that ensures they’ll receive a comp pick at the end of the first round for losing Gray. Minnesota reportedly had interest in keeping Maeda, but only on a one-year deal. He inked a reasonable two-year, $24MM pact with the Tigers that perhaps the Twins would’ve been more comfortable matching under normal circumstances, but he departed with the team receiving no compensation.

The Twins’ needs entering the offseason were well known. The rotation was losing a pair of notable arms — three, really, if you count Tyler Mahle, who missed most of the season due to Tommy John surgery — and they’d be on the lookout for ways to fill those innings. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey said in early November that the club might also keep an eye out for first base options, and the Twins were also known to be looking for a right-handed-hitting outfield bat to provide insurance for oft-injured Byron Buxton in center field with Michael A. Taylor reaching free agency.

Even though their to-do list was hardly shrouded in secrecy, the Twins idled throughout the first several months of the offseason. Free agents who’d fit the team’s needs — both expensive and reasonably priced — came off the board with minimal interest reported from Minnesota. Frustration among the fanbase understandably built.

The Twins have a knack for late-offseason trades/signings of significance, though, and they once again waited until that stage of the winter to make any real moves of note. The first and most significant transaction of the entire offseason came when the Twins, after months of exploring the trade market, found a deal to their liking for stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco. The 30-year-old second baseman had been in the organization since he was 16 years old and had been a staple in the Twins’ infield since 2016.

Infield was perhaps the Twins’ greatest organizational area of depth, though. Beyond Polanco, they were set with Correa at shortstop, Royce Lewis at third base and 2023 breakout rookie Edouard Julien at second base. Utility players Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro can play any of those three spots. The Twins had former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda in the mix at first base, with Miranda also capable of playing third base. Knocking on the door to the majors were the club’s No. 2 prospect, Brooks Lee, whom they selected with the No. 8 pick in 2022, and Austin Martin — a former No. 5 overall pick acquired in the trade that sent Jose Berrios to Toronto.

Over in Seattle, infield depth was far thinner. The Mariners had targeted Polanco in the past, but the Twins weren’t keen on moving him with less MLB-caliber infield depth and with so many affordable, prime-aged years remaining on Polanco’s extension. The 2023-24 offseason was clearly a different story. Polanco’s down to two years of control on his contract. Minnesota’s infield depth is arguably at an all-time high. They were also looking to scale back payroll.

The Twins could’ve tried to structure a deal sending Polanco and prospect depth to another club for controllable young pitching, but that hasn’t been this front office’s M.O. in past trades. The Twins always seem to focus on backfilling the system even if they’re trading for a major league player, and that was the case with the Polanco swap. Reliever Justin Topa, fresh off a breakout season, gave the Twins an immediate bullpen upgrade to a setup corps already including quality relievers like Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart.

Also headed to Minnesota in that deal were veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani, top outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, and minor league righty Darren Bowen. DeSclafani checked the Twins’ desire to add a low-cost option to compete for the fifth starter’s job in spring training. The Mariners had acquired him from the Giants earlier in the offseason, with San Francisco kicking in $6MM to help cover the right-hander’s $12MM salary. The Mariners redirected that $6MM to Minnesota and added another $2MM, leaving DeSclafani as a $4MM flier for the back of Minnesota’s rotation. (More on that in a bit.)

Prospect-wise, Gonzalez adds another well-regarded name to a deep list of Twins outfield hopefuls. Bowen is further off but gives the Twins a prospect who’s increased his stock since being selected in the 13th round of the 2020 draft. Gonzalez generally ranks within Minnesota’s top six prospects; Bowen is near the back end of their top 30. Coupled with a controllable setup man and low-cost roll of the dice in the rotation, it was a nice return for the Twins and a big upgrade to the Seattle infield. The move generally looked justifiable for both parties.

The other aspect of the trade, for the Twins, was shedding some salary. The swap was a net gain of $5.25MM in payroll space, and the Twins used that exact sum to bring longtime division foe Carlos Santana to Target Field. What initially looked like a part-time role increasingly looks like a regular job for Santana. He’ll be the primary first baseman, providing a massive defensive upgrade over former top prospect Alex Kirilloff. While Kirilloff is still on the roster, he’ll see more time at DH and perhaps in left field. He’ll still see occasional reps at first base, but the Polanco trade/Santana signing in rapid succession signaled a shift to focus on run prevention in the form of defense and bullpen arms, as the Twins likely began to accept that a more significant rotation move wasn’t going to come together.

That line of thought likely informed the remainder of the Twins’ decisions this winter, too. Righties Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont both inked one-year deals. Jackson has been an underrated arm over the past several seasons and made his first Opening Day roster at 36 years of age. Staumont looked like a potential bullpen powerhouse for the Royals at times, but his high-octane arsenal was often undercut by poor command and, more recently, injury. The Twins are hoping to get him back on track after thoracic outlet surgery. Meanwhile, out-of-options utilityman Nick Gordon was swapped out for lefty Steven Okert, who posted a 3.51 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate in 146 innings from 2021-23. Both Topa and Okert are arb-eligible through 2026. Staumont is controlled through 2025, as is Jackson, whose deal includes an affordable $3MM club option.

Sticking with the themes of low-cost moves and run prevention, the Twins’ other primary focus was finding a right-handed hitting outfielder who could spell Byron Buxton in center and complement lefty-swinging corner outfielders Max Kepler and Matt Wallner. A reunion with Michael A. Taylor was of interest to the team, but he spent the offseason seeking either a two-year deal or a one-year pact commensurate with the $10.5MM deals signed by fellow defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader.

The Twins at one point looked to be a finalist for Enrique Hernandez to fill this role, but the Dodgers jumped into the mix late in his free agency, bringing the fan favorite back to Chavez Ravine in a move that made Manuel Margot redundant. The Dodgers committed $4MM to Hernandez and swung a trade with the Twins that would see Minnesota cover $4MM of Margot’s remaining $12MM. It was a cash-neutral move for the Dodgers and one that filled an immediate need for the Twins. It cost Minnesota former first-round pick Noah Miller, but Miller at this point looks the part of an all-glove infield prospect whose bat has yet to develop. Infield talent is an area of strength in Minnesota’s system, and Miller didn’t have a path to a prominent role on the team in the long run.

In retrospect, the Twins could’ve perhaps held onto Miller and re-signed Taylor, who wound up agreeing to a modest $4MM deal with the Pirates once camp was already underway. Taylor was seeking more money at the time the Twins acquired Margot, however. It’s possible, even, that the Twins’ pivot to an alternative solution dinged Taylor’s market enough that he dropped his price.

It’s a similar story in the rotation. At the time the Twins acquired DeSclafani, a $4MM price point for a decent bit of rotation depth was reasonable enough. DeSclafani had clear injury risk but as recently as 2021 had pitched 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball. Even if that level of performance couldn’t be expected, he’s a career 4.20 ERA pitcher with good command, average ground-ball tendencies and only a slightly below-average strikeout rate.

Of course, we now know that DeSclafani won’t pitch for the Twins this season. He underwent flexor surgery that’ll wipe out his ’24 campaign before it begins. It’s a continuation of a maddening trend for Twins fans that have seen trade acquisitions like Sam Dyson, Chris Paddack and Tyler Mahle all injured almost immediately upon joining the Twins. Dyson had hidden his injury from the Giants prior to being dealt, but the remaining arms were all bets on talented arms with very recent injury issues that made the risk in acquiring them quite clear. While higher-profile pickups of names like Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have borne more fruit, the DeSclafani injury only further adds to that list.

It’s all the more frustrating when two months later, the stagnant free agent market resulted in the likes of Michael Lorenzen ($4.5MM) and Mike Clevinger ($3MM) signing vastly smaller guarantees than expected. There’s no way the Twins or other clubs could’ve foreseen the market for those two — Lorenzen in particular — dipping to this point. But, if the Twins were indeed working on this tight a budget, it appears all the more questionable to make their primary depth acquisition someone who’d pitched just 118 2/3 innings in the two prior seasons and ended the ’23 campaign on the IL with a flexor strain.

With DeSclafani shelved, right-hander Louie Varland steps squarely into the rotation alongside Lopez, Paddack, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. It’s a talented group, but the depth behind it isn’t as strong. The Twins have Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick on the 40-man roster, plus top prospect David Festa not far from MLB readiness. Still, Paddack will likely be on an innings cap of some sort after throwing just 27 1/3 MLB frames from 2022-23 due to his second career Tommy John surgery. There’s a clear lack of experience at the back of the group with Varland, Woods Richardson, Headrick and Festa. Adding some some depth by way of a veteran who was released late in camp (e.g. Julio Teheran) or via adding a recent DFA casualty (e.g. Jackson Wolf, Vladimir Gutierrez, Adrian Martinez) could be prudent in the early going.

The Twins’ rotation clearly looks worse this season than last, but the club’s hope has been that healthier seasons from Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, plus full seasons of Julien and Wallner could help to offset some of that downturn. Lewis’ early quad injury has already dashed some of those hopes, but there’s still ample time for him to top last year’s 239 plate appearances.

Minnesota’s front office isn’t necessarily shy about attempting to upgrade at the trade deadline, either, and so long as they remain in the hunt for the AL Central crown, they’ll likely be active in late July. It’d be a surprise to see the Twins fall out of the race early. While the quiet offseason showing wasn’t the follow-up fans wanted, this club still looks well-positioned to contend.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs retained Cody Bellinger at a bargain price, replaced Marcus Stroman, found a potential first base solution, and supplemented their bullpen – all while staying below the first competitive balance tax threshold.

Major League Signings

  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: three years, $80MM.  2025 and ’26 seasons are player options.
  • Shota Imanaga, SP: four years, $53MM.  2026 is a player option that triggers additional options.
  • Hector Neris, RP: one year, $9MM.  Includes $9MM club option for 2025

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with an important choice by starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on November 4th: he decided to opt out of the remaining one year and $21MM left on his contract.  This created financial flexibility and a vacant rotation spot, making some sort of starting pitching addition feel inevitable.

The following day, the Cubs locked in a rotation spot by making the expected decision to exercise Kyle Hendricks’ $16.5MM club option.  They also picked up the $6MM option on catcher Yan Gomes.

Then the Cubs made a move few people saw coming: they brought in Craig Counsell as manager, which required the largest contract in MLB history for that job both in terms of total and average annual value.  David Ross was fired in the process.  Counsell had managed the Brewers for nearly nine years, taking them to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons.  Counsell is regarded as one of the game’s better managers, and he often succeeded despite below-average payrolls in Milwaukee.

The stunning Counsell-for-Ross move conjured memories of Theo Epstein’s opportunistic switch nine years prior from Rick Renteria to Joe Maddon.  The Cubs’ signature player acquisition that offseason was the signing of Jon Lester, ranked second on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.  After the Counsell hiring, it was natural to wonder if Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer would deliver an additional offseason prize such as Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The Cubs did show interest in some of the offseason’s biggest names.  Reports suggest they made a real effort to sign Ohtani before he landed with the Dodgers on a heavily-deferred ten-year, $700MM deal, though the Cubs weren’t seemingly a finalist.  According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan, as Ohtani’s free agency drew to a close, agent Nez Balelo “proposed the same deal to at least three other teams,” the Giants, Blue Jays, and Angels.  As late as December 5th, Hoyer shot down a report that the Cubs’ optimism on Ohtani had waned, but it probably should have been waning around then.  The Cubs are not mentioned in that Gonzalez/Passan insider account of the signing.  Whether the Cubs dropped out due to an unwillingness to meet Ohtani’s asking price or due to his preference to play elsewhere remains unknown.

Though Hoyer saw Yamamoto on a September scouting trip to Japan, the Cubs were largely absent from reports about his offseason free agent pursuit.  The reporting on Yamamoto’s free agency provided no indication that the Cubs met with Yamamoto or made an offer.  It is known that both New York teams made strong offers to Yamamoto, who of course wound up joining Ohtani on the Dodgers.  There isn’t much indication that the Cubs could have reasonably won the bidding for Yamamoto, nor that they tried to.

Likewise, the Cubs may have had interest in then-Padres outfielder Juan Soto, but if so they kept it quiet in the rumor mill.  Soto differed from Ohtani and Yamamoto in that it wasn’t up to the player – that prize went to the team that made the best offer.  Soto was a bit of a tough fit for a Cubs team with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked in at the outfield corners.

One major trade target that made ample sense was Tyler Glasnow of the Rays.  According to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, “the Cubs remained in the Glasnow talks until the end, but were not willing to make a comparable offer” to the Dodgers’ proposal of Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca.  Glasnow’s preferences also mattered.  As Rosenthal and Ardaya put it, “He effectively could rule out certain teams by telling [Rays president of baseball operations Erik] Neander he would only stay with them for one season before entering free agency.”  The Cubs probably could’ve offered enough to land Glasnow for 2024, but they would not necessarily have been able to sign him to an extension.

Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee was quietly on the Cubs’ radar as well, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Like so many of this offseason’s big names, Lee wound up in the NL West.

As 2023 drew to a close, Cubs fans’ dreams of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto, or Glasnow had been dashed.  The team had added a managerial star, but nothing else.

A pair of key moves came within a three-day span in January.  First, the Cubs signed 30-year-old southpaw Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal.  The team also owes a posting fee of at least $9.825MM to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.  Imanaga will earn $23MM for his first two seasons with the Cubs, after which the team must decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering his age 32-34 seasons.  If they do so, it’d bring Imanaga’s total to five years and $80MM, similar to preseason contract projections.  If the Cubs decline, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for ’26.  If exercised, the Cubs will have to decide on two years and $42MM for 2027-28.  If the Cubs decline their first option, Imanaga exercises his ’26 player option, and the Cubs decline their 2027-28 option, the pitcher has another $15MM option for ’27.

It’s a fairly complicated structure that offers the Cubs some measure of protection as opposed to the $80MM guarantee a starter like Eduardo Rodriguez received.  Early returns on Imanaga suggest he can perform as a mid-rotation starter, in which case his contract represents a solid deal for the Cubs.  I don’t blame the Cubs for preferring Imanaga on his contract to Stroman at $21MM for one year or $37MM for two.

First base was a clear need for the Cubs, and they reportedly entertained a traditional solution in Rhys Hoskins as well as an interesting one in Josh Naylor.  Eventually, though, Hoyer made an addition no one saw coming by trading prospects for the Dodgers’ Michael Busch, as well as reliever Yency Almonte.  Busch, an MLB-ready 26-year-old rookie, comes with six years of control remaining.  He won’t even be paid an arbitration salary until 2027, and he’s under team control for a total of six more years.  If Busch develops into the above average hitter his scouting reports and Triple-A work suggest, this will become an inspired pickup by the Cubs.

The Cubs inked Hector Neris to a one-year deal in late January, at a $9MM salary a bit beyond Hoyer’s typical comfort zone for relievers.  At that point, the Cubs could have considered their offseason done.  They’d replaced Stroman, found a first base solution, and supplemented the bullpen.

Cody Bellinger has been conspicuously absent from this post thus far, and that’s because Bellinger reportedly sought $200MM or more on a long-term deal.  Back in November, I thought he’d get it, and not from the Cubs.  I also felt that the Cubs’ motivation on Bellinger would be limited, given the presence of slick-fielding center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.  There were signs the Cubs lacked full confidence in running PCA out to begin the season, however.  Two, specifically: their interest in Jung Hoo Lee and Kevin Kiermaier.

So the Cubs hung back and remained opportunistic on Bellinger.  As late as February 19th, owner Tom Ricketts said, “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” calling out agent Scott Boras to get serious.  About a week later, Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs was done, at a mere $80MM guarantee over three years.  Yes, there’s downside risk in that Bellinger will only forgo his two opt-outs if he performs poorly.  But if he plays well again this year and opts out, the Cubs will have only committed $30MM.  The Bellinger signing lengthens the Cubs’ lineup and pushes Crow-Armstrong back to Triple-A.  Bellinger can also slide over to first base should circumstances warrant it.

Ricketts made his position on payroll clear in that February 19th interview: “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels.  It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”  That was before the Bellinger signing; with him, the Cubs are estimated at about $234MM, only $3MM below the first CBT threshold to which Ricketts referred.

As the calendar turned to March, the Cubs were presented with a slew of opportunities to jump on further Boras surprise bargains and push the team from “should be enough to win our division” to “likely to win our division.”  Likely because of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push payroll past its current point (an estimated 10th in MLB), the Cubs passed on several big name free agents they very much could have used.

Matt Chapman was next off the board, signing a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants that included a pair of opt-outs.  Chapman would have been a “nice-to-have” for the Cubs, plugging in at third base and pushing Christopher Morel mostly to the DH spot.  It’s possible Chapman’s comfort in the Bay Area meant the Cubs would have had to go higher than the Giants, however.  The Cubs’ current plan seems to be mixing and matching at third base with Morel, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom.

The Giants also seized the opportunity to sign Blake Snell at two years and $62MM with an opt out.  Snell made a lot of sense at this price for the Cubs, though both he and Chapman would’ve required the Cubs to forfeit their second-round draft pick.  Jordan Montgomery remained on the market, however, and he would not require draft pick forfeiture.

The Cubs’ rotation, when everyone is healthy, will feature Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Wicks.  There is reason to believe this is not a collection of five 180-inning pitchers.  Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Drew Smyly are additional options to cover the inevitable injuries, such as the current ones to Steele and Taillon.  Signing Montgomery to a one-year, $25MM deal and pushing everyone down a spot was an opportunity the Cubs should’ve jumped on.   Instead Montgomery landed with the Diamondbacks, a team Ricketts would like to emulate, because, “You don’t have to have the highest payroll or the biggest stars. If you’re playing well, anybody can beat anybody. I was happy for the Diamondbacks.”

If the Cubs face any kind of starting pitching depth problem this year, and Snell and Montgomery are useful pitchers, it will be pretty easy to point to their availability in March.  To be fair, the same can be said of many teams.

Once everyone is healthy, the Cubs’ rotation looks decent, and their offense looks fairly deep.  The club also features strong defense up the middle.  They’re right in the middle of an NL Central that currently has all five teams projecting for 80-82 wins.  For a lot of teams, that’s good enough.

2023-24 Offseason In Review Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason In Review series breaks down what each of the 30 teams did (or didn’t) do this winter to build their 2024 rosters.  This landing page will contain the links to all 30 of our posts, for easy reference and to track when your favorite team’s post is online.

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

AL Central

AL West

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees’ offseason was highlighted by a blockbuster trade, but some major injury concerns have threatened to undermine New York’s work in upgrading the roster.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $23.25MM
Total spending: $41.25MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge hitting back-to-back is a pitcher’s worst nightmare, and having Gleyber Torres and a healthy Anthony Rizzo bookend those two elite sluggers in the lineup should also cause a few sleepless evenings.  Between this impressive top of the lineup, and fresh input from newly-hired hitting coach James Rowson and assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler, there is plenty of hope that the Yankees can improve upon their strangely punchless offense from the 2023 season.

Soto is slated to hit free agency next winter as he heads into his age-26 season, and the outfielder and agent Scott Boras surely have an eye towards the biggest non-Shohei Ohtani contract in baseball history.  Since the Yankees are one of the few teams who can afford such an expenditure, it’s certainly possible this won’t be Soto’s only season in the Bronx, but New York paid quite a premium for just one guaranteed year of Soto’s services.

Kyle Higashioka may have been expendable within the Yankees’ catching depth chart, but the real score for the Padres in the Soto trade was four talented and controllable young pitchers.  Michael King emerged as an intriguing starter with New York last year and looks to step right into San Diego’s rotation — at worst, King can be a lockdown reliever for the Padres if he doesn’t stick as a starting pitcher.  Drew Thorpe is a top-100 prospect who the Padres flipped to the White Sox as part of the Dylan Cease trade package.  Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez are also big league-ready arms and one of them likely would’ve won a rotation job had Cease not been acquired.

Trent Grisham was the other player acquired from San Diego, and though he is only earning $5.5MM via an arbitration-avoiding deal, his inclusion in the trade may have been a bit of a salary dump from a Padres deal that was eager to payroll this winter.  (Obviously Soto was the pricier figure in this equation, as his $31MM salary for 2024 is the highest ever given to a an arbitration player.)  Grisham is an outstanding defender whose hitting has dropped off over the last two seasons, and he seems to be ticketed for at least backup duty within an intriguing Yankees outfield mix.

The first-choice outfield alignment looks to be Soto in right field, Judge in center field, and new acquisition Alex Verdugo as the left field starter at least against right-handed pitching.  When a southpaw is on the mound, the Yankees will probably use Judge in left field and Grisham will step into center field.  Giancarlo Stanton will get most of the DH at-bats and might get some occasional looks in the outfield, though as GM Brian Cashman rather bluntly stated last November, it may simply be unlikely that Stanton can stay healthy for the entire season.  Judge figures to get a good dose of DH usage regardless of Stanton’s availability, since one of the Yankees’ chief priorities this year is keeping Judge healthy amidst the added physical strain of regular center field work.

A rare trade between the Yankees and Red Sox brought Verdugo into the fold, and between Verdugo and Soto, New York now has two legitimate left-handed bats to help balance out a lineup that was overloaded with right-handed hitters.  Verdugo has been exactly a league-average (100 wRC+, 100 OPS+) hitter over the last two seasons, and given the whispers of behind-the-scenes discord with Boston manager Alex Cora, a change of scenery might be just what Verdugo needs to get on track.

An in-form Verdugo, a healthy Stanton, and steps forward from highly-touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells would suddenly make the lineup look a lot more Bronx Bomber-esque, rather than simply “improved.”  A rebound year from DJ LeMahieu would also help, but the infielder’s 2024 season has gotten off to a rough start with a bone bruise that will begin his season on the injured list.

The Yankees had been looking for infield and utility depth even before LeMahieu got hurt, as Oswald Peraza is facing an extended absence while recovering from a shoulder strain.  The need was finally filled just yesterday when Jon Berti was acquired as part of a three-team trade with the Marlins and Rays.  Berti brings a ton of speed and defensive versatility to the roster, and his ability to draw walks and make contact has led to some occasional above-average offensive production over his six MLB seasons.

Landing Berti came at the cost of catcher Ben Rortvedt and minor league outfielder John Cruz, though New York is confident that Wells is ready to take on a larger share of the catching duties with Jose Trevino.  Wells’ defense could be the x-factor in whether or not he can move into a full platoon or even a playing-time edge over Trevino, and gauging by Wells’ minor league numbers, his bat is at least ready for the Show.  In other bench news, waiver claim Jahmai Jones won a spot on the Opening Day roster, and he brings more multi-positional utility to the mix.

The aforementioned search for a utilityman type led the Yankees to explore such free agents as Enrique Hernandez, Tony Kemp, Amed Rosario, and old friends Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gio Urshela.  In terms of position players, the Yankees made some more high-profile explorations, as the team had interest in the likes of Cody Bellinger, Jung Hoo Lee, Jeimer Candelario, Kevin Kiermaier, and probably several other free agents whose talks with the Bombers weren’t publicized.

Since the Soto trade was completed in early December, it seems as though the Yankees decided relatively early to go with the one-year strike for Soto rather than a longer-term deal with Bellinger or even Lee as their major offensive addition of the winter.  Cashman’s front office couldn’t have known at the time that Bellinger’s market would be limited enough that he would settle for an opt-out laden three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs, and naturally it makes sense that the Yankees would want to pounce on Soto and solidify the lineup as early as possible.  It’s easy to say this with hindsight being 20-20, but if New York had been comfortable enough to try and wait Bellinger out, the team could’ve landed a big bat at a lower average annual value than Soto, and King and company might still be on the roster.

Or, the Yankees might have flipped King, Thorpe, Brito, or Vasquez in another trade, perhaps for a frontline starter with more big league experience.  There is some irony in Thorpe being a centerpiece of the Padres’ Cease deal given how the Yankees themselves talked at length with the White Sox about Cease, but it seemed like Chicago’s insistence on landing Spencer Jones in any Cease trade package was a deal-breaker for New York.

Even though offense was the team’s larger need heading into the offseason, the Yankees were reportedly involved in the bidding for several starters and relievers, on both the free agent and trade fronts.  Beyond Cease, the long list of pitchers the Yankees at least checked in on included Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Shota Imanaga, Josh Hader, Yariel Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryan Brasier, and two of New York’s own free agents in Wandy Peralta (who signed with the Padres) and Keynan Middleton (with the Cardinals).

Yamamoto was one of the chief targets, and was reportedly offered a ten-year, $300MM deal (with two opt-out clauses) to begin his Major League tenure in the Bronx.  Yamamoto passed on that contract for a 12-year, $325MM deal with the Dodgers, as his decision might’ve been influenced by such factors as a big $50MM signing bonus, the flexibility offered by the six-man Los Angeles rotation, and of course the chance to play with a Japanese baseball icon like Ohtani.

Jordan Montgomery was another former Yankee who drew attention from his old club, as the Bombers were said to be in on the left-hander up until the moment Montgomery finally landed with the Diamondbacks for a one-year deal with a vesting player option for 2025.  Blake Snell was on the Yankees’ radar for much of the offseason, and the team’s reported six-year, $150MM offer to Snell in January stands as the largest offer known to have been on the table throughout Snell’s own extended stay in free agency.  The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner ended up signing a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that includes an opt-out next winter, as the Bombers didn’t revisit their six-year offer after moving onto Marcus Stroman as a rotation alternative.

Stroman inked a two-year deal worth $37MM in guaranteed money, and another $18MM could become available via a vesting player option for the 2026 season.  With two All-Star nods and a history of success in the AL East on his resume, Stroman is a nice get for the Yankees, and his grounder-heavy approach should play well with New York’s solid infield defense.  Injuries marred the back half of what was looking like a great 2023 campaign for Stroman with the Cubs, however, and adding to the list of health issues facing the Yankees rotation.

Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon combined for only 127 2/3 innings last year, leaving both starters in pursuit of bounce-backs.  Clarke Schmidt pitched decently well in his first full MLB season, and Luis Gil pitched well enough in Spring Training that New York will use Gil as the fifth starter, though Gil himself has only 33 1/3 career innings in the majors and missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The biggest question mark of all, however, is one of the Yankees’ most indispensable players.  Gerrit Cole will open the season on the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be an option until at least late May as he recovers from nerve inflammation and edema in his throwing elbow.  Missing at least two months is naturally still an infinitely preferable scenario to the initial worry that Cole might need some kind of season-ending surgery, yet the Yankees still have to navigate a big chunk of the season without arguably the sport’s best pitcher.  It isn’t a coincidence that the team’s interest in Snell and Montgomery seemed to spark back up after the news broke of Cole’s injury, but it looks like the Yankees will rely on Gil and their internal arms to hold the fort until Cole is able to return.

Even a late strike for Snell or Montgomery at a relative discount price would have had serious financial implications.  RosterResource’s projections put the Yankees’ payroll at $299.7MM, and their luxury tax number at just over $310.5MM.  The latter figure puts New York well over the highest tax threshold of $297MM, after the team just barely stayed under the $297MM number in 2023.  Since 2024 will be the Yankees’ third consecutive year of surpassing the luxury tax, it all adds up a whopping 110% tax added to any further payroll additions the Yankees might make.

It’s perhaps a reach to say that a team with such a gigantic payroll is hugely concerned with an even larger tax bill, as there’s certainly more pressure for the Yankees to get back into contention.  Yet, the Bombers did keep their free agent spending relatively in check, and the $30MM average annual values offered to Yamamoto and Snell seemed to represent something of a limit to how much New York was willing to offer.  Soto, Torres, Verdugo, Clay Holmes, and (pending a club option) Rizzo are all free agents next winter, representing some significant money coming off the books for the Yankees as they decide how to reload for 2025.

Though the relief corps was pretty successful last year, New York heads into Opening Day with some noteworthy changes in the bullpen.  With Peralta, Middleton, and former relief stalwart King all gone, the Yankees will look to make up those innings with Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez (both acquired in separate trades with the Dodgers) and minor league signing Nick Burdi.  Luke Weaver was re-signed to a low-cost guaranteed deal, and Cody Morris, Cody Poteet, and any number of other pitchers already in the farm system or signed to minor league contracts could emerge as the season progresses.  The Yankees and pitching coach Matt Blake have developed a knack for getting good results out of unheralded bullpen options, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some other unexpected name or a pitcher not even currently in the organization emerging for some high-leverage work later on in the season.

Between the flurry of additions big and small, it was a busy winter in the Bronx, which isn’t surprising for a Yankees team coming off a rare non-playoff season.  Players and team executives either hinted or outright stated last fall that some changes had to be made to get the club back into contention, extending from both roster moves to more clubhouse-related issues like Judge’s desire to see a difference in both the type of analytical information presented to the players, and in how this info is presented.  These types of alterations aren’t as public as the sight of Soto wearing Yankees pinstripes, of course, and despite all of the roster moves and internal fixes, ultimately a lot of the Yankees’ success in 2024 might simply hinge on Cole’s health.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays’ offseason was defined by who they didn’t sign rather than who they did sign, as they came up short in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $41MM
Total spending: $70.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

December 8, 2023 will be remembered as one of the most unusual days in Blue Jays history, as reports from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodger Nation and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated that Ohtani had either signed with the Jays, or was on a flight to Toronto to make the deal official.  It led to a few fevered hours of speculation around the baseball world before a lack of confirmation on these early reports eventually acted as a reality check, with Morosi retracting his earlier message on X.  The next day, Ohtani officially announced on his own Instagram page that he had signed with the Dodgers, thus ending the Blue Jays’ chances once and for all.

Subsequent reports indicated that the Jays made a comparable offer to the 10 years and (heavily-deferred) $700MM Ohtani received from Los Angeles.  Even if the Dodgers might’ve been Ohtani’s first choice if all else was equal, it appears as though the Blue Jays and possibly the Giants were viewed as legitimately viable alternative destinations if contract talks with L.A. didn’t go smoothly.

It’s possible that Toronto fans might feel a little better about not landing Ohtani now than they did a week ago, before news broke of the controversial and possibly explosive allegations involving Ohtani’s ex-interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, an illegal gambling operation, and funds allegedly taken from Ohtani’s personal bank accounts to cover Mizuhara’s debts.  However, losing Ohtani was soon followed up by Los Angeles signing another top Jays target in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, even if Toronto wasn’t reportedly one of the true finalists for Yamamoto’s services — and certainly not to the level of the Dodgers’ massive 12-year, $325MM commitment to the Japanese ace.

The one-two punch of missing out on Ohtani and Yamamoto only increased the discord that has existed within the fanbase through much of the 2023 season, and reached a fever pitch when sloppy baserunning, a continued lack of hitting, and an infamous pitching change combined to quickly sweep Toronto out of its wild card series matchup with the Twins.  Jays GM Ross Atkins isn’t going to make an ill-advised splashy move just for the sake of positive headlines, yet just from a baseball perspective, questions have to asked about whether the Toronto roster is better now than it was at the end of last season.

As has been the Blue Jays’ habit over the last few offseasons, the club was linked to a wide range of available players.  Beyond Ohtani and Yamamoto, multiple reports suggested the Jays had some degree of interest in the likes of free agents Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, J.D. Martinez, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Rhys Hoskins, Gio Urshela, Michael A. Taylor, Amed Rosario, Domingo German, and their own incumbent free agent in Matt Chapman.  On the trade front, the Blue Jays reportedly looked into deals involving such players as Juan Soto, Eugenio Suarez, Isaac Paredes, Dylan Carlson, Jonathan India, and Jake Cronenworth, with the first two of those names actually changing teams in other deals.

The slow-moving nature of the free agent market means that the Blue Jays probably didn’t really miss out on many opportunities while focusing primarily on Ohtani for the offseason’s first five weeks.  Hindsight being 20-20, it can be argued that the Jays should’ve or could’ve pushed more to acquire Soto than Ohtani, though there’s no guarantee that the Jays were willing to match or exceed the pitching-centric trade package the Yankees needed to pry Soto away from the Padres.  As much as the fans were begging for a big strike, cleaning out an already thin farm system to land Soto might not have been feasible for the Jays in the long run.

Kevin Kiermaier was a free agent for the second consecutive winter but again ended up signing a one-year deal with Toronto, returning for a $10.5MM salary and a raise on his previous $9MM deal.  Heading into the offseason, the conventional wisdom was that the Blue Jays might let Kiermaier walk, in order to install Daulton Varsho in center field and a bigger bat into Varsho’s old left field spot.  However, the Jays will instead run it back with the outfield of Varsho, Kiermaier, and George Springer, hoping for a repeat of the group’s excellent defense and overall good health, and a notable improvement at the plate from at least Varsho and Springer.  (And if Kiermaier can top his solid 2023 slash line of .265/.322/.419 in 408 plate appearances, all the better.)

As for re-signing Chapman, Toronto monitored his market and made a late two-year offer before the third baseman signed with the Giants.  Chapman’s rather unusually long stint in free agency probably created this eleventh-hour possibility of a reunion, as it otherwise seemed like the Blue Jays somewhat moved on from Chapman when they signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM contract.

The price tag raised eyebrows, as Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been well below average (81 wRC+) over his six MLB seasons and 2415 career PA.  A Gold Glove winner as the Rangers’ third baseman in 2020, IKF’s defense has generally graded as average to very good at multiple positions, even if he naturally won’t match Chapman’s elite glovework.

Having Kiner-Falefa as a semi-everyday player is probably not an ideal move for an already inconsistent lineup, though the Blue Jays’ rather fluid second base/third base/backup infield collection of IKF, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement could see all four players mixing and matching between the two positions.  Kiner-Falefa and Clement can also back up Bo Bichette at shortstop, and the out-of-options Clement performed well enough in Spring Training that the Jays felt comfortable enough to trade Santiago Espinal to the injury-riddled Reds last week.

Of course, Justin Turner also figures to get some time at the hot corner, even if Turner was signed to primarily fill Brandon Belt’s role as a part-time first baseman and DH.  Turner has been on the Jays’ radar for years as a free agent target, and the two sides finally came together on a one-year deal worth $13MM.  Even as he enters his age-39 season, Turner has remained a consistently productive hitter, including 23 homers and a .276/.345/.455 slash line over 626 PA for the Red Sox in 2023.

Turner is expected to play pretty close to every day at either third, first, or DH, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will naturally also be a lineup staple as the first baseman or designated hitter.  When a right-hander is on the mound, spring non-roster invite Daniel Vogelbach figures to get some time in the DH spot, as his minor league contract has now been selected to the Opening Day roster.  Vogelbach doesn’t have much utility as a DH-only player who can’t hit left-handed pitching, though his lefty bat does bring some balance to a lineup and bench mix that continues to tilt to the right side.  Re-signing Kiermaier brought at least one left-handed hitter back into the fold, but Kiermaier, Vogelbach, Biggio, and Varsho (none of whom are exactly premium bats) represent the current allotment of lefty swingers on the projected roster.

Joey Votto’s possible inclusion could change this picture in terms of upside if not numbers, as if Votto’s minors deal is selected to the active roster, he would surely just replace Vogelbach.  It would be a storybook ending if Votto could revive his career for at least one more big season with his hometown team, but while the 17-year veteran has been very forthright about his confidence in himself, Votto is also realistic about the challenges he’ll face in getting back to anything close to his old form after two injury-plagued seasons.  Votto will need time to ramp up in the minors, and he’ll also first have to recover from an ankle injury suffered after he homered in his lone Spring Training plate appearance in a Blue Jays uniform.

Between Turner, Vogelbach, and rolling the dice on Votto, the Jays apparently felt ok in moving on from Belt, as there were no public indications that Toronto had interest in re-signing arguably its best hitter from the 2023 season.  Alejandro Kirk also figures to get some DH at-bats over the course of the season, though he’ll be strictly a catcher in the early going while Danny Jansen recovers from a minor wrist fracture.  Offseason waiver claim Brian Serven will now break camp as Kirk’s backup catcher while Jansen heals.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays’ priciest signing of the winter wasn’t Ohtani or Yamamoto, but rather another name from Japan….via Cuba.  Yariel Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 464 1/3 innings and six seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional before then delivering a 3.03 ERA in 175 1/3 frames for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons from 2020-22.  Rodriguez sat out the 2023 season while trying to arrange his move to MLB, so the year’s layoff is another x-factor on top of the usual questions about how a player’s skills will translate from international baseball to the Show.

Multiple teams scouted and considered Rodriguez this winter, with the Blue Jays among the group who liked him as a starting pitcher rather than as a reliever.  With Bowden Francis winning the fifth starter’s job coming out of Spring Training, it appears as though Rodriguez will begin the season in Triple-A, acting as rotation depth and continuing to acclimate to his new league.  Even with a five-year contract and at least a $32MM investment in Rodriguez, the Blue Jays are willing to be patient in getting Rodriguez fully ready for the bigs before deploying him as a starter, reliever, or swingman.

While the Jays signed Rodriguez and kicked the tires on some other free agent arms, Toronto is largely standing pat with its same pitching staff from 2023.  This isn’t a bad move considering how the rotation and bullpen were both strengths last season, though there is some added risk since the odds are against another year of largely good pitcher health.  Already some cracks have shown since Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will start the year on the 15-day injured list, and Kevin Gausman had a bout of shoulder fatigue earlier in camp but now seems on pace to be part of the Opening Day roster.

Alek Manoah remains the biggest uncertainty on the roster, as Manoah’s spring work consisted of one rough outing (four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings) before being sidelined with shoulder soreness.  In the wake of Manoah’s disastrous 2023 season, the Blue Jays simply don’t know what to expect from Manoah going forward, making it even more important that Francis, Rodriguez, Mitch White, and perhaps eventually top prospect Ricky Tiedemann can work as depth starter or fifth starter options.  This in turn puts more pressure on Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi to stay healthy and effective so any other leaks don’t spring in the rotation.

Adding clear-cut starters or even lower-level pitchers on inexpensive guaranteed contracts or minor league deals might’ve been tricky for the Blue Jays this winter, as such pitchers probably preferred to join teams with clearer potential rotation or bullpen openings.  In a nutshell, already having a core in place might’ve limited what Toronto was willing or able to do with both its pitching staff and perhaps the roster as a whole.

Breaking the bank for Ohtani or Yamamoto in a special circumstance was one thing, but the Jays were generally conservative in boosting the payroll.  After a $214.5MM payroll and a $246MM luxury tax number in 2023 (putting them over the tax line for the first time ever), the Blue Jays are estimated by RosterResource for a $226MM payroll and a $248.7MM luxury tax figure heading into Opening Day.  While they might not have spent much this winter, this does leave the team with some flexibility to add money at the trade deadline when they have a better sense of their immediate needs.  It isn’t known whether or not the second tax penalty tier of $257MM represents any kind of internal spending limit, but given how this team has been so aggressive in recent years, it would be surprising if the front office suddenly held back if a key upgrade was available.

If the Blue Jays were ultimately content to just tinker with their roster, however, it puts even more pressure on their core group to step up after a curiously lackluster 2023 season.  Atkins said in early January that “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” and yet while any of Springer, Varsho, Guerrero, or Kirk could rebound, counting on them all to bounce back is perhaps a little too optimistic since there was no obvious answer as to why the quartet were all so inconsistent last year.

Between this group, Kiner-Falefa’s lack of offense, and the uncertainty within the second base and backup infield mix, it isn’t a stretch to say that Bichette and Turner are the club’s only real reliable bats heading into the year.  Perhaps some coaching changes might do the trick, as bench coach Don Mattingly has a new title of “offensive coordinator” and Matt Hague has joined the staff as an assistant hitting coach.

Even with back-to-back playoff disappointments in the last two seasons, the Jays still think their core group is capable of bigger and better things.  Without a ton of overt upgrades coming this winter, however, the Blue Jays will face a challenge in just getting back to the playoffs, let alone making some postseason noise.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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After spending big in the previous two offseasons, the Rangers took a much more conservative approach this winter due to concerns over their broadcasting revenues.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $24.525MM
Total spending: $46.025MM

Option Decisions

Extensions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers were one of the 14 teams whose games were aired on the Bally Sports regional sports networks owned and operated by the Diamond Sports Group, until DSG filed for bankruptcy last year.  The situation manifested itself in a few different ways for the various teams involved, but for the Rangers, Guardians, and Twins, it wasn’t until late January that the three clubs reached one-year agreements with Diamond to continue airing games on Bally Sports for the 2024 season.  The three teams will reportedly earn roughly 85% of what they previously received annually from DSG in the pre-existing contracts, which in Texas’ case represents around $94.35MM rather than $111MM.

It remains to be seen if Diamond Sports Group or Bally Sports will even exist in its current form by 2025, as the fate of the company may hinge on a restructuring deal that includes an investment from Amazon.  However, as it currently stands, the Rangers don’t know where their games will be airing once the 2024 season is over, and figuring out that future is arguably the organization’s key goal this year, much more so than anything that happens on the field.

With this uncertainty in mind, the Rangers’ first World Series title was even more of a relief for the long-suffering fan base — if Texas had lost the Series to the Diamondbacks, imagine the compounded frustration if the Rangers had followed up that loss with a low-key set of offseason moves.  This isn’t to say that the Arlington faithful are entirely thrilled with how the winter has played out for their team, and yet comparatively speaking, there were fewer holes to be filled on what was already a championship roster.

GM Chris Young was up front with his team’s plans in late November, telling media that the focus was on “looking for additions to kind of shore up” what was already “a great returning core group.”  Acknowledging the TV revenue uncertainty and “a responsibility to be financially prudent,” Young said that the Rangers “expect to be active in free agency, but probably not spending at the level that we have spent in previous offseasons.”

Considering that Texas spent roughly $846.35MM on free agents during the 2021-22 and 22-23 offseasons, some kind of step back was maybe inevitable even in a world where the broadcast rights situation was more stable.  And, it isn’t as if the Rangers reduced payroll — RosterResource estimates Texas has a current payroll of around $224.1MM and a luxury tax number of $247MM, both up slightly from their $214MM payroll and $237.1MM tax figure in 2023.

The largest expenditure came on a pitcher who probably won’t be making his Rangers debut until after the All-Star break.  Texas signed free agent Tyler Mahle to a two-year, $22MM contract that is largely backloaded, as a nod to how Mahle will miss the bulk of the coming season rehabbing from his Tommy John procedure from May 2023.  Obviously the Rangers are pretty comfortable in Mahle’s ability to recover on a normal timeline and then contribute to rotation down the stretch, even if there is some uncertainty about the fact that Texas is expecting the same from several members of the pitching staff.

Max Scherzer will be sidelined until at least June and probably closer to the start of July after undergoing back surgery in December.  Like Mahle, Jacob deGrom also had a Tommy John surgery last year and is projected to return by the second half.  If all three recover as planned, this is quite the set of reinforcements coming for the pennant race, yet that is also admittedly a best-case scenario considering how deGrom, Mahle, and (to a lesser extent) the 39-year-old Scherzer have all been hampered by injuries in recent years.

The in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford will try to hold the fort until the injured trio are ready, and even a second-choice version of the Texas rotation is still pretty solid.  The Rangers added to this mix just within the last week by signing Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $4.5MM deal and ending the right-hander’s long sojourn in free agency.

Lorenzen will probably need some time in extended Spring Training to get fully built up after going so long without a proper offseason camp, yet it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran supplant Bradford as the fifth starter.  Lorenzen’s return to starting pitching in 2022 saw him amass 97 2/3 innings with the Angels, and he far surpassed that total by tossing 153 frames with the Tigers and Phillies in 2023.  His quality first half with Detroit resulted in an All-Star berth, though Lorenzen seemed to wear down after being traded to the Phillies, and he ended up relegated to the bullpen during Philadelphia’s postseason run.

Jose Urena, Adrian Sampson, and Danny Duffy were among the starter/swingman types added for even more depth on minor league contracts, though Duffy could potentially opt out of his deal since he won’t be on the Opening Day roster.  Prospects Owen White, Cole Winn, or Jack Leiter could also factor into the picture, but the bottom line is that Texas should have enough pitching to at least make do until the team gets more clarity on when deGrom, Mahle, and/or Scherzer will all be ready to roll.

This isn’t to say that the Rangers didn’t at least test the waters on some other bigger-name pitchers over the winter.  Texas reportedly discussed a Dylan Cease trade with the White Sox before Cease was dealt to the Padres, and they also had interest in Yariel Rodriguez and Clayton Kershaw before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Blue Jays and Dodgers.  In Kershaw’s case, he’ll also be out of action until around midseason after undergoing shoulder surgery, yet the Rangers’ interest in the local product has been a running storyline for the last few years, though Kershaw has continually re-signed with Los Angeles on a series of short-term contracts.

The biggest pitcher on the Rangers’ radar was, of course, postseason hero Jordan Montgomery.  After being acquired from the Cardinals at the deadline, Montgomery had a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 regular-season innings and then a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings during the playoffs.  Montgomery’s huge role in the Rangers’ championship boosted his stock considerably heading into free agency, yet the left-hander still remains unsigned at the time of this post.  As of early March, Montgomery and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were reportedly still seeking a seven-year deal, and the most recent reports indicate that some “long-term” offers are still a possibility.

Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman became known as “the Boras Four” this offseason, as the Scott Boras clients all had extended stints in free agency that (for the latter three) concluded in short-term deals with opt-outs after the 2024 season.  It isn’t yet clear if Montgomery will also end up signing such a contract, yet this might be the only realistic chance at a reunion between Montgomery and the Rangers.  The Lorenzen signing may hint that Texas has simply moved on from Montgomery, but until the southpaw puts pen to paper with another team, the Rangers can’t be completely ruled out given their successful shared history last fall.

Texas won its World Series despite a relief corps that was shaky at best for much of the season, so it isn’t surprising that Young targeted the relief market.  Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton all departed in free agency, and the Rangers were linked to such names as Hector Neris, Robert Stephenson, Ryan Brasier, and Jordan Hicks.

The search for relief help ended with the signings of David Robertson and Kirby Yates to one-year deals, though Robertson’s contract has a (rarely-exercised) mutual option attached for 2025.  The veterans are each coming off solid, if unspectacular, 2023 campaigns, and Robertson in particular brings a wealth of playoff experience.  Robertson and Yates will be slotted in as set-up men behind closer Jose Leclerc, whose $6.25MM club option was unsurprisingly exercised by the team.

Much like with the rotation, the Rangers are relying more on depth and quantity of arms rather than true elite quality to carry the bullpen.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Texas again makes relief pitching a priority at the deadline, though if the injured starters return at midseason, Dunning or Bradford could then be bumped to help out the bullpen.

Though Mitch Garver had a big year at the plate in 2023, his injury history and increasing limitations as a DH-only player rather than as a catcher kept the Rangers from issuing a qualifying offer as Garver entered free agency.  This decision might come back to haunt Texas if Garver helps the Mariners take a run in the AL West, yet the Rangers instead addressed their catching situation by signing Andrew Knizner as Jonah Heim’s new backup.  Garver and defensive specialist Austin Hedges were let go in free agency, and Sam Huff and minor league signing Andrew Knapp are likely the top depth options at Triple-A.

Continuing with the position player mix, the Rangers didn’t do much to tinker with an already powerful lineup.  Travis Jankowski was re-signed to continue in his role as the Rangers’ primary backup outfielder, while Robbie Grossman and Brad Miller departed in free agency since the club is seemingly pretty comfortable with letting younger players (i.e. Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith) handle part-time or bench roles.

Then again, some early-season injury concerns could open the door to more playing time.  Nathaniel Lowe is likely going to start the year on the 10-day IL due to an oblique strain, while Corey Seager (sports hernia surgery) and Josh Jung (calf strain) have only just started playing their first Spring Training games.  Seager and Jung might need just minimal 10-day IL stints to get them fully recovered and ramped up, and Lowe isn’t expected to miss too much of April, even if oblique injuries are sometimes hard to gauge.  Lowe’s injury in particular might open the door for minor league signing Jared Walsh to make the roster as a first base fill-in, and Texas also added former Reds top prospect Jose Barrero on a waiver claim just in case Seager or Jung can’t go by Opening Day.

Multiple players could take turns rotating through the DH spot, yet Wyatt Langford might end up getting the bulk of those at-bats as part of his meteoric rise to the majors.  Langford was the fourth overall pick in last year’s amateur draft and he amassed only 200 total plate appearances in the Rangers’ farm system last season.  However, Langford was shredding opposing pitching to such an extent that he was promoted all the way to Triple-A by the end of his first pro season, and the Rangers have already announced that the phenom will be part of the Opening Day roster.

There’s no guarantee that the 22-year-old will continue his exceptional hitting now that he’s facing big league hurlers, but Langford has already engendered such trust from the Texas player development staff that he is already considered ready for the challenge this early in his professional career.  If Langford is able to even somewhat replicate his minor league numbers, the Texas lineup will be even more dangerous.

For as much money as the Rangers spent to build their World Series team, the contributions of homegrown prospects (i.e. Jung, Leclerc, Evan Carter, Leody Taveras) and unheralded acquisitions (such as Adolis Garcia) have been just as critical as the higher-priced free agents.  The Rangers’ confidence in its pipeline might be another reason why the team was comfortable in dialing back the spending, as Texas might already have enough to make a run at a second consecutive title.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays typically make at least one significant trade that sends out a veteran player to reduce spending and acquire controllable talent. Tampa Bay did that again in a major deal with the Dodgers, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet winter at the Trop.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $8.75MM
Total spending: $9.1MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Shane McClanahan to two-year, $7.2MM deal to avoid arbitration (remains eligible for arbitration through 2027)

Notable Losses

It’s a near annual tradition that the Rays face two big questions going into each offseason. How will they keep their spending in check, and will they lose anyone from a key leadership position on the coaching staff or in the front office?

This winter, the seemingly inevitable front office departure came first. General manager Peter Bendix, who had worked as Erik Neander’s top lieutenant in baseball operations, left the organization to serve as president of baseball ops for the Marlins. The Rays didn’t immediately name a new #2 executive, instead divvying up Bendix’s former responsibilities among assistant GMs Will Cousins, Chanda Lawdermilk, Carlos Rodriguez and Kevin Ibach (the latter of whom was promoted to that role in January).

While the Rays lost Bendix, they’ve solidified their main leadership duo of Neander and manager Kevin Cash. Each signed contract extensions in February that run at least beyond the 2028 season. Terry Francona’s retirement means Cash is now the longest-tenured manager in MLB as he enters his tenth year at the helm. Neander has been at or near the top of baseball operations for even longer, as he’d taken on a lead role in the front office around Andrew Friedman’s departure in October 2014.

Neander and his staff entered the winter with a slate of payroll commitments that seemed lofty by organizational standards. They had just shy of $77MM in guaranteed contracts and an arbitration class projected for upwards of $45MM. A few obvious cuts (e.g. Raimel Tapia, Jalen Beeks, Josh Fleming, Cole Sulser and Christian Bethancourt) reduced the arbitration outlay, but it seemed as if the Rays would again need to turn to the trade market to cut spending. Tampa Bay had opened the 2023 season with around $73MM in player commitments. Even with that number going up, ownership was never going to be comfortable matching the payroll projection from the beginning of the offseason.

Tyler Glasnow was set for a $25MM salary that would’ve been the largest in franchise history, thus making him the most apparent trade candidate. Yet, that was complicated by Glasnow’s strong relationship with Rays’ higher-ups and, more meaningfully, an uncharacteristically thin rotation mix. Tampa Bay lost Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs to Tommy John surgeries last season. Drew Rasmussen underwent a flexor repair and will miss a good portion of 2024.

Aside from Glasnow, the Rays were down to Zach Eflin and ’23 deadline pickup Aaron Civale as their only healthy, proven big league starters. Taj Bradley is a recent top prospect but struggled to a 5.59 ERA over 23 appearances as a rookie. Zack Littell had shown signs of becoming the Rays’ next successful reliever-to-starter conversion, yet that only really kicked into gear in the final two months of last season. Shane Baz would face workload restrictions in his first season back from a 2022 Tommy John procedure. Eflin and Civale, while currently healthy, have had injury concerns in the past.

That presumably made a Glasnow trade difficult even for a front office accustomed to making those kinds of tough decisions. Ultimately, it proved the clearest way for Tampa Bay to get their payroll closer to a typical level while bringing back two controllable MLB players. The Rays and Dodgers agreed to a deal sending Glasnow and veteran outfielder Manuel Margot (who was set for a $10MM salary in the final year of his contract) to L.A. for righty Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca.

Neither Pepiot nor DeLuca have reached arbitration. Pepiot is under club control for five seasons, while the Rays control DeLuca for six years. Tampa Bay kicked in $2MM on Margot’s salary and agreed to pay the $2MM buyout on his 2025 mutual option. The deal saved them around $33MM this year. Glasnow agreed to a four-year extension with the Dodgers as a condition of the trade. (Los Angeles later flipped Margot to the Twins in February.)

Pepiot won’t match Glasnow’s ace-level ceiling, but he’ll step directly into the rotation. The Butler product owns a 2.76 ERA over 17 MLB appearances. He’s regarded as a potential mid-rotation arm thanks to a mid-90s fastball and excellent changeup. Pepiot may well have established himself as a key piece of the Dodger rotation last year had he not suffered a significant oblique strain at the end of Spring Training. That kept him under 65 innings between the majors and Triple-A in 2023. The Rays may need to keep an eye on Pepiot’s workload, but he slots in behind Eflin and Civale in the starting staff.

DeLuca, meanwhile, is a replacement for Margot. They’re each right-handed hitting outfielders with good contact skills and the ability to play all three outfield positions. DeLuca only has 24 games of major league experience but is coming off a .294/.390/.566 line in the upper minors. He was on track for a fourth outfield spot before breaking his hand this spring, so he’ll likely be on the injured list until the early part of the summer.

Glasnow and Margot turned out to be the highest-profile players whom the Rays would move. There were a few rumors about other stars who are into their arbitration years, namely Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes.  There’s nothing to indicate the Rays ever got close to trading either.

It’s a bit surprising they didn’t deal righty-hitting DH/corner bat Harold Ramírez, who is making just under $4MM and is down to two seasons of club control. Ramírez, a good but not elite hitter with defensive limitations, is the kind of player whom the Rays typically shop as their arbitration prices climb. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in January that Tampa Bay had floated him on the trade market, but they apparently didn’t find an offer to their liking. Barring a surprise move in the next five days, he’ll open the season as their top option at DH.

While they didn’t trade Ramírez, the Rays did flip one player from their corner outfield mix. Tampa Bay sent Luke Raley to the Mariners in a one-for-one swap to bring in versatile infielder José Caballero. Raley has yet to reach arbitration so this deal didn’t have anything to do with the payroll, but Tampa Bay added some roster balance in swapping offense for a more valuable defensive player.

Caballero appeared in 104 games for Seattle as a rookie. While he hit a modest .221/.343/.320 over 280 plate appearances, he stole 26 bases and rated as a plus defender at second base. Seattle didn’t have much shortstop time to offer him thanks to the presence of J.P. Crawford. The Rays have already declared Caballero their expected starter at short, forming a middle infield tandem with Brandon Lowe. Defensive stalwart Taylor Walls will begin the year on the IL as he works back from last fall’s hip surgery.

(The Rays still haven’t provided any update on Wander Franco. MLB and the team are awaiting results of a criminal investigation in the Dominican Republic after multiple minors accused Franco of sexual abuse. He remains on the roster but will very likely be placed back on administrative leave once the regular season begins.)

On the same day as the Caballero trade, the Rays partially back-filled the outfield depth lost by dealing Raley when the team Bay acquired lefty-hitting Richie Palacios from the Cardinals for reliever Andrew Kittredge. Palacios was available in a DFA trade as recently as last June but turned some heads with a .258/.307/.516 showing in 32 games for St. Louis late last year. His major league track record is limited, but Palacios has posted an excellent strikeout and walk profile in the upper minors. He has hit well this spring and could break camp, although a remaining minor league option affords the front office roster flexibility. Neither Caballero nor Palacios has reached a full year of service time. They’re both controllable for at least six seasons.

The rest of Tampa Bay’s trades were relatively minor, as they moved on from a pair of former top prospects who haven’t clicked. The Rays shipped Vidal Bruján alongside reliever Calvin Faucher to the Marlins for a trio of minor leaguers in November. They made a similar move just yesterday, sending speedster Greg Jones to the Rockies for non-roster southpaw Joe Rock. Tampa Bay also dealt Blake Hunt and Michael Mercado (to the Mariners and Phillies, respectively) after determining they weren’t going to add them to the 40-man roster to prevent them from reaching minor league free agency.

While most of the Rays’ roster maneuvering always comes via trade, they did make a trio of low-cost free agent pickups. The Rays brought back swingman Chris Devenski on a $1.1MM deal with a club option early in the offseason. That was their only major league free agent acquisition until February, when they jumped on a pair of players whose prices came in south of expectations.

Reliever Phil Maton inked a one-year, $6.5MM pact that includes a team option for 2025. He generates plenty of whiffs and soft contact behind a high-spin curveball that enables his 89 MPH fastball to play beyond its velocity as his “secondary” pitch. Maton doesn’t have the traditional power arsenal that gets relievers paid in free agency, yet he’s coming off a career-low 3.00 ERA and has run above-average strikeout rates in four straight years. The Rays’ preference for building a bullpen comprising pitchers with varying arm angles and repertoires has been well-chronicled in recent seasons. More often than not, it works.

While it was a little surprising that Maton couldn’t secure a two-year pact, the Rays’ other February free agent signing was very unexpected. Amed Rosario isn’t coming off a good season, but few would’ve anticipated he’d settle for a $1.5MM guarantee. He’d been a durable and roughly league average performer for Cleveland in 2021-22 before his defensive grades tumbled last year.

Rosario reportedly turned down a $4MM offer from the Yankees because the Rays presented a clearer path to everyday reps at shortstop. That might be the case throughout the season given Caballero’s inexperience, although Cash stated after the Rosario signing that the latter would begin the year in a multi-positional role off the bench.

That rounds out the MLB position player mix for now, although there’s at least one move coming before Opening Day. After placing Bethancourt on waivers, the Rays dropped to one catcher on the 40-man roster. They’ve stuck with that arrangement throughout the offseason. René Pinto is their clear #1 option after hitting six homers in 39 games. The Rays will obviously need to make another move to add a backup.

For now, it seems that minor league signee Alex Jackson, who has played all of five MLB games in the last two seasons, is the favorite to grab that job. That’s despite a .143/.194/.179 batting line this spring. Jackson’s longstanding strikeout troubles at least open the door for old friend Francisco Mejía, who returned on a non-roster pact after being released from a minor league deal with the Angels. There’s clear room for an upgrade from outside the organization. The Rays should evaluate the catching market as veterans opt out of minor league deals over the next few days. Former top prospect Joey Bart has long stood as a speculative trade possibility, as he’s out of options and has been kicked down the depth chart with the Giants.

Caballero, Lowe and Rosario should see the bulk of the work in the middle infield. Paredes is back at third base, while Yandy Díaz is in line for the majority of the first base reps. Curtis Mead could play a bat-first role throughout the infield. That would’ve also been the case for Jonathan Aranda, but he broke his finger this week and is headed to the IL. Top third base prospect Junior Caminero looms in the upper minors but will begin the season in Triple-A.

Arozarena is back as one of the game’s best left fielders. Jose Siri will get the bulk of the playing time in center field. Josh Lowe should be the starter in right field when healthy, but he’s also going to begin the year on the shelf rehabbing an oblique issue. That could open right field reps for Ramírez or Palacios. The DeLuca injury could create a bench spot for Jake Mangum, who has impressed this spring. A college standout at Mississippi State, the 28-year-old Mangum was the third piece in the return from the Marlins for Bruján and Faucher. He’s a potential fifth outfielder.

There’s a fair bit of position player talent, as is customary for an organization that annually runs a strong prospect pipeline. The aforementioned lack of rotation depth is probably the biggest question mark. A pectoral strain is sending Bradley to the IL. There’s an opening for the #5 starter behind Eflin, Civale, Pepiot and Littell. The Rays are stretching Devenski and waiver claim Tyler Alexander out as multi-inning options who could contribute as abbreviated starters. They brought back Jake Odorizzi and added former NPB righty Naoyuki Uwasawa on minor league deals.

Any of Devenski, Alexander or even Odorizzi could also find themselves in the bullpen. Minor league signee Jacob Waguespack has already earned a 40-man roster spot, putting him in a good spot to secure a middle relief role. They’ll need a few other arms to bridge the gap between the rotation and the likes of Maton, Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam in the late innings.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Rays to enter the season with a $98.4MM player payroll. That’s both easily a franchise high and firmly in the bottom third of the league. They face their ever-present challenge of going against bigger spenders in the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox, as well as a Baltimore team awash in young talent that chased the Rays down to win the AL East a year ago. The division is always an uphill battle, but the Rays typically find ways to overcome it.

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