Latest On Astros, Alex Bregman

Feb. 8: The Astros spoke to Boras yesterday, GM Dana Brown said Thursday (X link via Rome). Brown stressed that there’s no timetable for extension talks but echoed Crane’s comments that the team “will make an [extension] offer” to Bregman.

Feb. 7: The Astros locked up one franchise icon yesterday, perhaps for the remainder of his career, when signing second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125MM deal that runs through his age-39 campaign. Altuve’s extension status has been a talking point for the past year, as the eight-time All-Star had been slated to reach free agency this coming offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman finds himself in a similar scenario, entering the final season of a nine-figure extension and on the cusp of free agency. However, talks with the 29-year-old Bregman are another beast entirely — a reality owner Jim Crane acknowledged when speaking to Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

While Crane candidly stated that the organization will “definitely” make a long-term offer to Bregman before he reaches the market, he also acknowledged that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance.” That’s something of an understatement. Bregman, who like Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation, is currently slated to head into free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Altuve would’ve turned 34 in May of the first season of a potential free agent deal.

That gap in age sets vastly different market expectations — as does the difference in position. In recent offseasons, the market hasn’t rewarded pure second basemen at nearly the same levels as third basemen. And with Bregman hitting the market prior to his age-31 season, a deal ranging from seven to nine years in length seems plausible in a way that simply wouldn’t have been the case for Altuve entering his age-34 season.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights the discrepancy. Prior to Altuve’s new deal, the largest free-agent deal or extension inked by any second baseman in the past five years was Marcus Semien’s $175MM contract and Andres Gimenez’s $106.75MM extension. Flip the position to third base, and free agency has provided $300MM and $245MM deals to Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, respectively, while the extension market has seen Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado and Rafael Devers all eclipse $200MM (and $300MM, in Devers’ case). When switching to age-based criteria, Aaron Judge’s $360MM contract began with his age-31 season, whereas no position player contract beginning at age 34 had topped Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM deal.

At today’s press conference to formally announce the Altuve extension, Boras was asked about the possibility of a Bregman extension. As one would expect, he didn’t rule anything out, telling reporters: “Alex has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say” (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

But, as we’ve previously noted here at MLBTR and as Rome outlined concisely in his latest mailbag column (which Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full), the type of commitment it’ll require to sign Bregman long-term isn’t one that the Astros have been willing to make in the past. Owner Jim Crane has never signed a player for more than a $150MM guarantee and has never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman, if he has a “typical” year in line with his career levels, figures to be positioned to top both of those figures by a wide margin.

Even assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying offer — which seems like a given if he produces at his usual levels — a seven-year deal would seem like the bare minimum, and a lengthier pact would be considered likely. Bregman would be the clear top third baseman on next year’s market and could wind up being considered the No. 2 or No. 3 overall free agent behind Juan Soto. He’ll be in a tier alongside stars like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames, among others, in that regard. Boras touched on this today, telling the Astros beat that because of the age at which they signed their previous contracts and the age at which they are (or were, in Altuve’s case) scheduled to hit free agency, that Bregman faces “a more normal free agency dynamic” than Altuve would have (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

From a payroll standpoint, the Astros could certainly make a Bregman deal work — even after inking Altuve. Roster Resource projects a bit more than $117MM in guaranteed money on the 2025 books. Adding in a new Bregman contract and arbitration raises for stars Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez could add as much as $65-75MM to that number, but Houston is set to trot out a $240MM payroll in 2024 and will exceed the luxury tax threshold this year. Extending Bregman would mean committing to having four players — Bregman, Altuve, Hader and Alvarez — all locked up through at least the 2028 season, but the frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract will mean he’s only earning a $10MM salary in each of those seasons. As such, it’d be plenty plausible to have Altuve ($10MM), Hader ($19MM), Alvarez ($26MM) and Bregman and have that quartet account for well shy of $100MM.

An extension for Bregman shouldn’t be waved off as a sheer impossibility, but it’d take a change in the club’s contractual norms for one to come together this spring. Houston fans can point to the fact that the Josh Hader signing represented just that sort of philosophical shift, as it was a much larger deal than Crane has typically been willing to commit to a free agent, but a Bregman extension would represent an even larger departure from prior norms, given the dollars at stake.