Feb. 8: The Astros spoke to Boras yesterday, GM Dana Brown said Thursday (X link via Rome). Brown stressed that there’s no timetable for extension talks but echoed Crane’s comments that the team “will make an [extension] offer” to Bregman.
Feb. 7: The Astros locked up one franchise icon yesterday, perhaps for the remainder of his career, when signing second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125MM deal that runs through his age-39 campaign. Altuve’s extension status has been a talking point for the past year, as the eight-time All-Star had been slated to reach free agency this coming offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman finds himself in a similar scenario, entering the final season of a nine-figure extension and on the cusp of free agency. However, talks with the 29-year-old Bregman are another beast entirely — a reality owner Jim Crane acknowledged when speaking to Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.
While Crane candidly stated that the organization will “definitely” make a long-term offer to Bregman before he reaches the market, he also acknowledged that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance.” That’s something of an understatement. Bregman, who like Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation, is currently slated to head into free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Altuve would’ve turned 34 in May of the first season of a potential free agent deal.
That gap in age sets vastly different market expectations — as does the difference in position. In recent offseasons, the market hasn’t rewarded pure second basemen at nearly the same levels as third basemen. And with Bregman hitting the market prior to his age-31 season, a deal ranging from seven to nine years in length seems plausible in a way that simply wouldn’t have been the case for Altuve entering his age-34 season.
A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights the discrepancy. Prior to Altuve’s new deal, the largest free-agent deal or extension inked by any second baseman in the past five years was Marcus Semien’s $175MM contract and Andres Gimenez’s $106.75MM extension. Flip the position to third base, and free agency has provided $300MM and $245MM deals to Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, respectively, while the extension market has seen Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado and Rafael Devers all eclipse $200MM (and $300MM, in Devers’ case). When switching to age-based criteria, Aaron Judge’s $360MM contract began with his age-31 season, whereas no position player contract beginning at age 34 had topped Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM deal.
At today’s press conference to formally announce the Altuve extension, Boras was asked about the possibility of a Bregman extension. As one would expect, he didn’t rule anything out, telling reporters: “Alex has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say” (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).
But, as we’ve previously noted here at MLBTR and as Rome outlined concisely in his latest mailbag column (which Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full), the type of commitment it’ll require to sign Bregman long-term isn’t one that the Astros have been willing to make in the past. Owner Jim Crane has never signed a player for more than a $150MM guarantee and has never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman, if he has a “typical” year in line with his career levels, figures to be positioned to top both of those figures by a wide margin.
Even assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying offer — which seems like a given if he produces at his usual levels — a seven-year deal would seem like the bare minimum, and a lengthier pact would be considered likely. Bregman would be the clear top third baseman on next year’s market and could wind up being considered the No. 2 or No. 3 overall free agent behind Juan Soto. He’ll be in a tier alongside stars like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames, among others, in that regard. Boras touched on this today, telling the Astros beat that because of the age at which they signed their previous contracts and the age at which they are (or were, in Altuve’s case) scheduled to hit free agency, that Bregman faces “a more normal free agency dynamic” than Altuve would have (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).
From a payroll standpoint, the Astros could certainly make a Bregman deal work — even after inking Altuve. Roster Resource projects a bit more than $117MM in guaranteed money on the 2025 books. Adding in a new Bregman contract and arbitration raises for stars Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez could add as much as $65-75MM to that number, but Houston is set to trot out a $240MM payroll in 2024 and will exceed the luxury tax threshold this year. Extending Bregman would mean committing to having four players — Bregman, Altuve, Hader and Alvarez — all locked up through at least the 2028 season, but the frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract will mean he’s only earning a $10MM salary in each of those seasons. As such, it’d be plenty plausible to have Altuve ($10MM), Hader ($19MM), Alvarez ($26MM) and Bregman and have that quartet account for well shy of $100MM.
An extension for Bregman shouldn’t be waved off as a sheer impossibility, but it’d take a change in the club’s contractual norms for one to come together this spring. Houston fans can point to the fact that the Josh Hader signing represented just that sort of philosophical shift, as it was a much larger deal than Crane has typically been willing to commit to a free agent, but a Bregman extension would represent an even larger departure from prior norms, given the dollars at stake.
So, who are the Astros that are confirmed cheaters?
Not a single one.
Did I dream about a garbage can?
Bergman yes altuve no. I think rest aren’t even on the team anymore but I could be wrong.
Bregman and Altuve are the only ones remaining from the cheating teams
Not saying Verlander cheated, but wasn’t he there too?
Yes, they traded for him that same season.
Yeah, it’s just Altuve, Bregman, McCullers and Verlander.
Bregman, who cheated. Altuve, who did not. Verlander was there for September and October. McCullers was there the whole year of course. The entire rest of that team is either playing elsewhere or retired.
I could be wrong but wasn’t there a big thing about Altuve and a buzzer? I remember seeing something about MLB clearing him but MLB also said they were only holding management responsible for the cheating. Pretty sure that was Altuve.
The buzzer is a myth.
Well in all fairness we really will never know for sure. And we should really stop using the word myth to mean a falsehood even tho it has come to mean that. It’s simply a misunderstanding of the purpose of art and storytelling
Cheaters get questioned
On lookers get off
The rest are innocent
Of course…
Well if by on-lookers you mean the guys who didn’t say anything I suggest you think about how easy it really is to speak up about that when you are on the team. You are practically asking for an a$$ beating from someone and at best you are gonna be that guy nobody talks to out of hatred or fear of other players reaction. You are frankly even risking your career. Whether right or wrong there is certainly an unwritten rule about telling on your own teammates.
I mean do we really have to bring this up every article for years now?
It would have been smarter for Houston to invest in Neris(over Hader) & another good 5-7M/yr reliever and use the savings to sign either Bregman or Tucker to a long-term arrangement.
Cudda traded for Clase, assuming they have enough for Cleveland to jump. He still has years of control if I remember correctly and I think is making around 10.5 at most. Don’t quote me on the figure though.
I checked and was thinking of someone else apparently because Clase is only making 4 mil this season and is on a 4 yr 20 mil contract with 2 options at the end. Those options if picked up will be at 10 mil per. Fangraphs is where I looked.
Bregman is going to want >$35MM season. Best extending Altuve, who is now considered the greatest Astro, and Tucker. Seriously, Bregman won’t be signing for less than $325MM.
Bregman’s star has faded significantly though in recent years. I hope he understands that and appreciates that whatever offer the Astros give him might actually be his best offer.
Bregman to the Blue Jays this winter.
Is Chapman gone?
Yes.
Just bang the drum and say a name
@dudeman40
Curious, when that Indians fan was banging the drum all those years, do you think the club was using him for stealing signs? Suspicious, indeed!
Funny no one’s ever tied any similairties between the INDIANS and the drum banging. Yet, it took no time at all to do it with the Astros.
Probably because no baseball fans really cares about them other than their own fans and they still haven’t won it all since 1948.
“no baseball fans really cares about them other than their own fans”
-Every Non-Astros Baseball Fan.
Yet every post that has to do with the Astros has hundreds of comments.
Commenting and caring are two different things entirely.
You care enough to click and article about an Astros player and then make a comment. They live rent free in your mind.
Because it’s entire worlds different when a fan is banging a drum in a consistent rhythmic pattern at random then when players or team employees are banging a trash can irregularly at specific moments. There’s also the part where Doug Fister came clean and admitted about the whole trash can scheme.
Astros starting to look like the Yankees. Let’s lock in all these aging guys for the fan nostalgia.
“Starting to look like the Yankees”…fan nostalgia”…The one key difference between the Yankees long-term deals and the Astros long-time deals?..The Astros 2 World Series wins and what, 6 or 7 str8 championship round appearances, so unlike the Yankees, the Astros actually have something to be “nostalgic” about.
I’m not an Astro or real big Yankee fan but who in the past 5 years have the Yankees resigned for nostalgia? Rizzo might mean something to Cubs fans but definitely not the Yankees. Cole has lived up to the contract. Rondon was a big mistake at least so far but he has no ties to New York. They had to resign Judge. Can you imagine the blowback in the press if he left. DJ LeMahieu again might mean something in Colorado but he hasn’t done enough in New York that I’d call him a Yankee. Nostalgia would be them bringing back D-Rob although he can still pitch and Robbie Cano. Altuve as much as I think poorly of him and his possible buzzer wearing under his uni is still producing on at an elite level. It’s not the over the hill gang. But I see your point that it could very quickly become a team of has beens. Bregmen is a elite 3rd baseman for now but if I had to put my eggs in someone’s basket in Houston it would be Tucker.
You actually believe the buzzer conspiracy? That was literally made up by a random twitter account who also accused Torres of wearing one the game before. You shouldn’t think negatively of Jose Altuve.
As a Yankee fan I find it very suspicious that his BA peaked in 2016 and 2017 and not getting close to those numbers since.
I can think negatively about Altuve or any member of the 2017 Astros. It’s a proven fact that they were getting pitches. Garbage lids and cameras so a buzzer doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. First it was his wife didn’t want him shirtless then it was a bad tattoo. I don’t know about that one for sure but it seems plausible. He really didn’t want that jersey pulled off in front of cameras. I don’t know. But I do know when you get caught cheating, there goes your credibility. I can attribute some decline to aging but he never hit like he did in 16 or 17 again nor did he hit like that before. It’s what’s keeping Beltran out of the hall for now and I’m sure Altuve who is heading towards the HOF is going have the same problem.
Think it’ll be some NL team not named Phillies or Dodgers. He’ll get paid might just stretch into spring training 2025.
As a Phillies Phan, I agree with this statement.
Dodgers are the most likely landing spot if Bregman makes it to FA after the 2024 season. Muncy will be 34 in 2025 and has hit .204 the last 2 seasons with his only saving grace being a 15.3% BB rate that is nearly twice MLB average.
Bregman would be a huge upgrade.
Muncy is under contract for ’25 with the Dodgers holding a ’26 team option for $10MM. He’s worth holding onto if he maintains his power. For that money Bregman will command, they’re better off going after Soto.
Rockies
Bregman was difficult “to root for” before the truth came out. Can’t stand the dude now.
@stanton100: Do you seriously believe Bregman cares whether or not you root for him?
What is your point Blue B? He doesn’t even know I exist. My statement had nothing to do with what he thinks of me, I was stating what I think of him.
After age like 21, you shouldn’t root for other men. Putting people on pedestals. Root for laundry.
Says the guy with “liberal” in his name.
Do you vote? Then you’re rooting for someone to win.
At least rooting for grown men playing a sport doesn’t directly affect day to day life (usually).
Haha great comment Woods R. Thank you!
Lol at this failure of a post. I root for political people because it affects my daily life. I don’t wear their jersey,care about their personal life or want their autograph. Imagine being over like 25 and wearing a jersey of another man. Or imagine your wife doing that. She is basically saying she would bang him in front of you
What a sad way to look at sports, people, life and your wife. I’m more than happy to root for my favorite players, even ones that don’t play for my favorite team.
LiberalSteve: You are as delusional as your liberal politicians. Where did jerseys, autographs, or my wife wearing another dude’s jersey come from in this thread. Probably from the same place 81 million votes for a corrupt ass old man appeared. Hahahaha
Ugh, I think liberal Steve is a plant. The dude sounds conservative, TBH.
Hahaha….he might be. Ask to see his vax cards so we’ll know for sure.
@stanton100 – I dunno, I’m certainly not a Liberal and I have one. I refuse to base my medical decisions on political affiliation. But that’s me.
I personally hate that someone think they guess my politcial affiliation on a stereotype.
Certainly doesn’t excuse the idiocy of Liberal Steve’s rationale in his comments.
LS
“She is basically saying she would bang him in front of you”
No
♂️♂️♂️♂️♂️
@stanton100: As opposed to the corrupt ass old man who lost the election but couldn’t accept reality and participate in a peaceful transition to a new administration.
That is kind of stupid. Bregman improved in every aspect of his game AFTER the Astros could no longer use electronic sign stealing.
They are the only position players. Lance McCullers Jr and Justin Verlander were on the team also.
It has been well documented by several sources that Altuve continuously told the bench to not signal to him, that he did not want to know what was coming and evidence shows only a handful of “bangs” throughout the season.
As for Bregman, he was a 23 year old in his 1st full MLB season aa as such nobody should expect him to stand up to Beltran and Cora and stop the system.
The Astros cheated and deserved to be punished but they also were scapegoats so MLB could control what the fans were told so they didn’t have another league wide scandal.
It’s now been 7 years and really needs to just go away.
Shouldn’t get more than a five year contract offer after this year as is. That will take him through age-35. He’s a fine player, but not someone to break the bank over.
But he will. 7, possibly 8 years at $30+ million.
LordD
The years don’t matter
Compare a 5 year/100 million deal with a 6/100 deal
Why wouldn’t the team prefer 6 years?
Then he will walk as he should. Someone will pay him.
The Cubs and White Sox (lol) figure to be looking for upgrades at 3B next offseason assuming the former don’t sign FA Matt Chapman this year and the latter pass on Yoan Moncada’s $25MM 2025 team option.
The local need at the hot corner could also depend on the 2024 progress of a couple of near MLB ready top prospects, Matt Shaw with the Cubs and Bryan Ramos from the White Sox.
But he’s a cheater
As a Cubs fan, I hope the front office passes on Chapman unless he is amenable to a short term pillow contract. I’d hold off and gauge the progress of Christopher Morel at 3B this spring and Matt Shaw at AAA. If neither show any promise at the hot corner the Cubs should be all-in on Alex Bregman next winter.
As for my White Sox, all I could do is pray for good health and a resurgence from Yoan Moncada this season or the blossoming of Bryan Ramos at AAA. I will also kneel to the baseball gods and beg for a new owner on the southside of Chicago.
You don’t need the baseball gods to get rid of Jerry Reinsdorf. Father Time is the one that’s going to save us.
Jerry Reinsdorf is 87 and showing few signs of deteriorating health. I’d prefer a quicker sale solution since it’s apparent his son Michael is only interested in running with the Bulls once his father passes.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos is 94. His health has been declining for some time now which precipitated the family’s recent agreement to finally sell the team to a group led by David Rubenstein. Hopefully JR and son Michael won’t wait as long as the Angelos family.
The Cubs can make a run at the division this year before the Pirates and Reds youth solidifies. A year from now might be too late. I think Chapman would be a good fit for them. I’d expect his homerun totals to jump back to the 25-30 range.
Wagner>Cobb
I appreciate the optimism but Chapman wants to be paid like a star player, and his bat has deteriorated the past few seasons. If he was willing to go at a cheaper price, the Cubs would have signed him by now, but he’s a Boras guy, and he’s selling his player like he’s worth a lot more than what he’s worth.
What do you think Chapman wants?
I think he could be signed for 5/100 or 6/120. I don’t think 20 mil AAV is absurd for a guy who is an elite defender. The glove will age well at 3B and the bat should play up at Wrigley. Also, the only reason he looked like his bat regressed last year was due to injury later in the year. Prior to that, he looked excellent.
The options at this point are:
– Pay for Champan this year
– Swing some kind of trade
– Pay for Bregman this year
I’m not sure that Bregman a year from now will be better in Chicago than Chapman would be. Bregman would surely be more expensive.
*Pay for Bregman next year
What’s more, after Bregman next year (who might not get to FA since he and Houston are both open to an extension) there are no star-caliber 3B options in FA for the next several years out. They really would have to push hard to trade for someone like Paredes if they want an external upgrade.
Internally, the picture is bleak. Obviously Morel is a DH. Busch isn’t a 3B either. Maybe BJ Murray will surprise some people?
Yankees need Bregman. They have a gaping hole at 3rd base. He fits the needs of a 5 tool player and can break up the one dimensional offense they have
But he’s a cheater
Astros had a better away record
@Cute Pomeranian That’s the worst part. The Astros were good and didn’t need to cheat. But they did anyway. It’s the mentality of a kleptomaniac, where the main reason to cheat is because they thought they were too smart and would get away with it, not because they needed it.
Only way they make a run at Bregman is if they fail to resign Soto. Personally Bregman will cost 50% cheaper and fills a need at 3b whereas Soto is a DH in the making
Giving your wife Ozempic for Valentine’s Day carries less risk than extending him and running that payroll up with those four
LOL, that’s quite a line.
JimmyCatFish,
That is a very colorful way of putting things. I’ll have to borrow that line thank you!
Give Bregman 75mil over the next 12 years. Only a partial no trade. If he can win an mvp. A full no trade is activated.
Reading all these resentful comments leads me to believe everyone’s 9/11 was when the Astros won it again in 2022.
Astros are the biggest victims ever!!!!!!!!!!!
We got our first 9/11 victim right here lolol
Rendon, what a hoot.
Bergman will sign with the Tigers next year.
Do you really see the Tigers spending that kind of cheddar?
I’m crossing all my fingers and toes. They have the cash. I think it all depends on the GM and POBO and whether they thing Jung can play 3B or Keith’s arm will recover enough to do so. A middle of the order hitter is what the Tigers need and he fits the bill at a position of need for them. If they’d traded Fulmer way back when he might already be a Tiger…hindsight being 20-20 😉
After letting Springer and Correa leave, I would fully expect that Bregman’s asking price and length of contract would be too much for Jim Crane. However, he has been doing the unexpected lately. He’s firmly over the tax threshold by signing Josh Hader, so who knows? Personally I would love to see Bregman stay an Astro.
Bregman will get an overpay in free agency. Crane has to decide if he wants to compete with that. Personally, I see both sides. Bregman can’t really be replaced with anything on the farm, but a bad contact can be more damaging.
We don’t “know” players, but we feel like we know them sometimes. Bregman seems like a guy who’d be happy to play elsewhere, which is his right. Personally, I’d like to see him finish career as an Astros and got for a 3rd ring.
Curious if his bat can play in another park. I could see him going to the Mets, but I don’t think he will be able to play at an elite level with them.
Cheatro Banditro
Astros should trade Bregman. Pena to 3rd and Dubon to shortstop. Win/win. Spend the money on locking Tucker up.
Pena to 3rd wastes his skills and makes him a significantly below average player.
Dubon at SS is pretty solid w/glove but not Pena level and his bat would be very poor.
You are talking about causing a 5-10 game reduction in wins at the end of the year.
That is a wildcard team
Afn
“You are talking about causing a 5-10 game reduction in wins at the end of the year.”
Show your work?
Definitely something to consider, except for the fact that Peña is better at shortstop than Dubon. Remember he received a gold glove at SS In ’22. It’s not a perfect world and keeping Bregman and Tucker may not be an option.
Bregman beware if he gets traded. Wonder if he’ll get the Private Pyle treatment while lying in his bunk: smacked by a pillowcase full of bars of soap
Free agency ruined professional sports. Instead of cheering for players, now we all cheer for jerseys with ever changing names on them.
IBA
“Free agency ruined professional sports”
No
First, sports isn’t ruined
Second, allowing players to earn more money increases the talent level
Adams remains clueless with commas again. When “but” begins the sentence, there shouldn’t be one after it.
Insert farting emoji here
Predictions:
– Bregman walks and eventually signs with the Mets.
– Kyle Tucker signs a long term extension after this season.
– Hunter Brown pitches like an ace this year and next year, eventually signing an extension while Valdez is allowed to walk.
I hope that all of these things happen, but I don’t see them happening. Lol. Especially the Valdez walking part. I feel like the Astros are doomed to re-sign him.
If they extend Valdez, it won’t be at a premium price or premium length. He’ll be 32 at the start of his next deal, so a 4 year contract might not be too crazy if they end up keeping him.
I am skeptical that they’ll be able to keep Tucker. He’s the biggest loss, potentially.
Bregman will be for more expensive as he is 4 years young. 8-9 years at $28-$30 AAV
Pumpkin eater.
Do they take out the cheating years when calculating how much these Astros players are worth or no?
They are worth what a team will pay them, so no cheating is not part of the equation.
Owners and GMs don’t care. He will get well over $200M and almost every team would love to have him.
Only fans care. And the media only cares to get clicks and eyeballs.
What a joke!
That’s what they have said about many players that left. Then it comes out that they did and it was half the $’s and years they signed for elsewhere.
That is just to appease the fans.