The Padres finalized the signing of reliever Wandy Peralta on a four-year free agent contract. The MAS+ Agency client has the right to opt out after each of the first three seasons. He is reportedly guaranteed $16.5MM. Peralta will make $3.35MM this year, followed by a $4.25MM player option for 2025, and $4.45MM player options for the following two years. San Diego had five open spots on the 40-man roster, so they didn’t make a corresponding transaction.
Peralta, 32, has been one of the steadiest relievers in the Yankees’ bullpen for the past several seasons. From 2021-23, the southpaw logged 153 innings and turned in a 2.82 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and excellent 56.5% ground-ball rate. He’s also limited hard contact quite nicely, sitting in the 88th percentile (or better) of MLB pitchers in opponents’ average exit velocity during each of the past four seasons.
In 2023, Peralta had some uncharacteristic command struggles, as his walk rate jumped from 7.6% to 13.6%. He also plunked a career-high six batters — as many as he’d hit over the four previous years combined. Still, the track record is good, he kept his ERA below 3.00 even with the shaky command, and at 32 he’s younger than most of the other southpaws available. The Yankees reportedly had interest in retaining him, and the Mets were known to have some interest as well. Instead, he’ll head clear across the country and join a revamped Padres bullpen that has lost closer Josh Hader to the Astros but has added several interesting arms.
Peralta joins star NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui and star KBO righty Woo Suk Go as free-agent pickups for San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. The Friars also acquired Enyel De Los Santos in a trade sending Scott Barlow to Cleveland. That quartet will join right-hander Robert Suarez as he seeks a bounceback after a difficult 2023 campaign. Righty Steven Wilson is also locked into a middle relief role.
It’s almost unheard of for a reliever to sign a deal with three opt-out provisions, but Preller has shown a willingness to utilize opt-out clauses more than any executive in the sport as a means of luring free agents to San Diego. Both Matsui and Suarez have opt-outs in their five-year contracts (which is an extremely rare length for relief contracts as well). Recent offseasons have also seen the Friars grant opt-out clauses to Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, Matt Carpenter, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer (multiple opt-outs, in the case of Wacha and Martinez).
The frequent opt-out provisions are clearly a successful tactic in terms of reeling in free agents, but they’re also one of the main factors behind the Padres’ perennial roster churn. Moreover, the risk is rather clear from the team vantage point; if Peralta pitches well in 2024, he’ll likely opt back into free agency next season and turn the contract into a one-year deal. If he’s injured or performs poorly, the Padres will remain on the hook for what could quickly look like an undesirable contract. And, even if Peralta is pitching well this summer but the Padres fall from contention, the trio of opt-outs will sap much of Peralta’s trade value. Any potential trade partner will be wary of acquiring a player who’ll bolt for free agency at season’s end if things go well but is still guaranteed additional seasons if the trade pans out poorly.
The uncommon structure of the contract also succeeds in lowering the luxury tax hit for the Padres, who’d surely like to dip beneath the $237MM threshold and reset their penalty after soaring past last year’s tax barriers. The Friars have trimmed back much of their actual, bottom-line payroll but are still only about $22MM shy of that first-tier tax level after signing Peralta, per Roster Resource. That’s due largely to backloaded contracts for Machado, Matsui, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth.
Peralta’s addition provides a solid veteran arm to what looks like a volatile Padres bullpen. While all of Suarez, Matsui and Go are clearly talented, there’s a broad range of outcomes on each of the three as Suarez looks to put last year’s injuries behind him while Matsui and Go transition to North American ball after starring in their respective leagues across the Pacific. That’s key for the Padres, as is getting Peralta on an affordable yearly rate. While there’s ample downside because of the opt-outs, as previously discussed, the contract also creates the possibility of getting one year of Peralta at a highly affordable rate that wouldn’t have been otherwise feasible.
The lower salaries on the contract also leave Preller & Co. some additional wiggle room as they look to round out a top-heavy roster. The Padres have clear needs in the outfield and rotation, and they could also use another bat to bolster the corner/designated hitter mix. The Padres, though, were also looking to reduce payroll by as much as $50MM from last year’s $255MM mark. They’re currently at a projected $160MM. On the surface, that seems to leave ample room for further additions, but as already noted, the team is only a notable addition or two away from being right back up against the luxury threshold, which could prove instructive in forecasting the remainder of their offseason dealings.
Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic first reported the Padres and Peralta were in agreement on a four-year, $16.5MM contract with three opt-out clauses. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported the salary breakdown.
10centBeerNight
Fantastic move by friars. Welp NYM fans – get ready for a Loup type. NYY too – Hal ain’t George. The budget constraints are real
Blue Baron
Salaries were less and there was no luxury tax when George was running things.
He would have had his limits as well.
User 2161944466
How do you know? Presumptuous for you to speak on his mindset. You always question people on here speaking for others but you do it all the time. I’m pretty sure I can’t be associated with you any longer. Goodbye Baron
politicsNbaseball
Who is associating the two of y’all together?
Blue Baron
@JimmyCatfish: That’s OK, I never asked you to be associated with me, whatever that even means.
I’ve never addressed you. In fact, I wasn’t even aware of your existence.
Your opinion is of no consequence to me, and you look like a deranged serial killer anyway.
Any relation to the Manson family?
Yanksfan1030
George had his limits. That’s why he didn’t go after manny and mussina for example. He just went after one.
But george wasn’t being cheaper than anyone else either which Hal is doing. There’s at least two owners willing to go more out than Hal. And no excuse for that.
BaseballisLife
Hal’s Yankees are in the Cohen CBT tax range right now. While they haven’t quite overtaken the Dodgers and Mets, they are still over $300 million and the season is still 2 months away.
Only a Yankees fan could say they were being cheap.
JoeBrady
Only a Yankees fan could say they were being cheap.
===========================
No, there are a lot of fans like that. Even when the RS were #1 in spending, the fans still complained about us being cheap.
But yeah, watching fans complain about spending “only” #300M+ is amusing.
Citizen1
You forget the 2023 Yankee team had its worse losing streak in decades and field an old timer all star team every game. Kinsler and Downs are off the roster but snell ain’t gonna solve their issues short term. George would have signed snell, maybe at 6/150 not 9/270.
Rob Schumann
You fail to mention how many times the last 10 years Hal has complained about being over the tax. They are spending this year because they have to. Cashman has built a mediocre team the last couple of years and they needed solid players to actually improve. Hal seems to trust Cashman a bit too much. The Rodon signing should have gotten him his walking papers. I’m not sure they have added enough this offseason to be WS contenders but they are a lot closer.
Keena
I don’t recall many Yankee fans griping about the Rodon signing when it happened. In fact, most of us were thrilled. He got hurt early, and when he came back, had a tough season. The guy hasn’t forgotten how to pitch, and even though I’m usually an extreme pessimist, I predict he’ll have a nice bounce back season, as will Nestor Cortes.
In my opinion, that I have stated often on this site, the one glaring problem, is Clarke Schmidt as our 5. He’s mediocre at best. An emergency spot starter, or a spot starter in a double header. If we go into the season with that dude as our 5th starter, that would be a joke. Luis Gil would be a much better choice, and so would Luke Weaver.
I do agree with you, that Cashman has put together a mediocre team. All we hear about is rumors that Cashman is interested in true impact players, but he rarely gets the ink on a contract. It was ridiculous to let Peralta get away, but if Cashman deserves walking papers on anything, it should be making no serious attempt whatsoever, at trading for Corbin Burnes, or signing Josh Hader, which would have been tremendous pickups for the Yankees. And to answer your question, NO, they have not added enough this off season to become World Series contenders. Not even close. I don’t see us even being contenders for the AL East, but hopefully I’m wrong.
WiffleBall
I never liked the way George ran things. The best thing that ever happened to the Yankees was when he was suspended, allowing the ’90s dynasty to be built without him ruining it by trading Jeter, Pettitte, Mariano, or Bernie.
28rings
You’re talking “budget constraints” after just trading away Soto to us? Good luck Wandy, we will miss you… Best of luck Padres with his 5.05 FIP
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Peralta was Aaron Boone’s favorite reliever. He always felt confident walking to the mound and signaling for the left-hander. Not sure what his pet nickname was (because ‘Peralt-y & Wandy-y sound kind of weird) but Boon-y is going to miss his rock.
BrianStrowman9
Groundball pitchers routinely out pitch their FIP because their goal is for batters to bury balls in the dirt. He was lucky last year but not quite as lucky as that FIP number suggests.
Ronk325
The Yankees acquired Wandy’s replacement last month and have plenty of bullpen options on hand. He won’t be missed
Mrski
We will see. You are depending on another career year and others looking for career years.
Ronk325
Not sure if you meant to reply to me or not or who exactly you’re saying is being depended on for a career year?
all in the suit that you wear
Who is Wandy’s replacement on the Yankees? Victor Gonzalez?
Eatdust666
Yes
ctyank7
Just wait till the team is barely above .500 at the All Star Break and Boras tells Shallow Hal and his GM For Life that Soto will not resign after the season….
Yankees setting themselves up to finish 4th again.
Ronk325
The Yankees could very well finish 3rd in the AL East this year but that is more of an indication of the strength of the division. Wandy Peralta leaving hardly affects the pecking order of the division and it’s definitely not a reason to cry over “budget constraints.” Wandy was objectively mediocre last year
TheTrotsky
They’re payroll is 294 million what are you talking about?
mrmackey
He had a 5.05 FIP last year. So let’s see how it goes for them, especially without Blake.
LordD99
@10centcomment, the Yankees made Wandy better, and they’ll make his replacement better. It’s a Matt Blake skill. They build bullpens as well as any team. I know the Mets are trying to get there too, but they have a long ways to go.
norcalblue
Agree. Smart move by front office. Hard to believe this guy couldn’t replicate this deal elsewhere. Guess not, because this is not where you want to land if you want to be pitching in a pennant race.
Laseball Biker
Wow, three opt-out clauses!?
charlie 6
That has to be a record in such a short contract.
myaccount2
Even crazier than the 3 opt outs to me is that they gave him 4 years. The guy has had success, don’t get me wrong, but it has come with a high BB rate and low K rate. I would have been weary of going beyond 2 years.
Armaments216
Not crazy at all when you look at what’s left on the lefty reliever market.
myaccount2
Well, there are better pitchers left on the relief market, notably Stanek and Maton.
OldSaltUSN
Better pitchers for less than $4M a year? Hard to say for sure, but unlikely.
websoulsurfer
baseball-reference.com/players/m/matonph01.shtml#2…
vs
baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralwa01.shtml#2…
Going with Peralta on that one by a landslide.
vs
baseball-reference.com/players/s/stanery01.shtml#2…
REALLY close.
Stanek is a RHP, so is Maton for that matter, and Padres had need for LHP, so no matter how close in performance, Peralta filled the Padres need.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
The Padres have agreed to a four-year, $16.5MM contract
With such a low price tag this is a high reward low risk contract
At any point he can opt out if he is doing well, which is fine. Means padres got their moneys worth.
But if he isnt performing well it’s not a burdensome contract by any means.
myaccount2
Good point. Not burdensome since the total money isn’t bad, so he could just be DFAd if he’s not performing well after year 1, but if he is, probably opts out; however, if he starts the year off poorly, he’s not a guy I’d bank on bouncing back.
I’d much rather just sign Maton or Stanek, but that’s neither here nor there.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
Maton is gonna cost more $$$ and RHP in the pen isn’t as big of a need. Same with Stanek, RHP.
Chuck from Uniontown
Wow really nice deal for the Dads
charlie 6
The Padres really love player options.
BaseballisLife
Apparently so do these pitchers that keep signing them.
Rally Goose
Why wouldn’t they? They get the best of both worlds. The security of a long-term deal plus the ability to re-enter free agency or milk the team for more money if they play well.
Jesse Chavez enthusiast
Yeah if I was a player joining a new team I’d be thrilled to have all those options. If I have a good year or don’t click with a team you could hit the market whenever you like, if they struggle or just really enjoy the city/team you can stick around for another 3 years! Thanks for reminding me of the Rally Goose by the way!
Now Yu Know
He’s got good numbers with the Yankees the past few years.
deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger
Low AAV
CarryABigStick
A big day for the Peralta brothers.
FanDan
This is nuts. They need a LH reliever, but not another multi-year deal. WTF Preller. The rest of the league is not doing this insanity.
99socalfrc
Hopefully he comes in for one season, kicks ass and earns a better contract elsewhere. It feels like that is what they are expecting.
FanDan
We can only hope. Preller has more guaranteed contracts going out through at least 2027 than anyone. Not to mention the Hosmer fiasco which has 2 years left. Creates roster inflexibility which is what they are fighting through now.
99socalfrc
I can’t believe he still has a job, even if we look past the signings/ extensions of last off-season and assume Seidler was pushing all his chips in and drove those deals. Preller has failed for a decade. How he gets the reputation as some kind of awesome talent evaluator is beyond me.
El Niño
@99 The padres were in the NLCS in ‘22. There’s a strong argument to be made that manny wouldn’t have signed here without the padres showing they were willing to spend on guys like Hosmer.
ACK
Trading Big Game James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr may have given AJ some job security.
99socalfrc
LOL @ the “Manny wouldn’t sign there without Hosmer” take. Manny Machado signed there because he got $300m. Also that was 5 years and 4 managers ago so what does it even matter.
Smelly_Cobb
Preller and his scouting team have also restocked the farm rather quickly after that Soto trade a couple years back. Seems like they are good at evaluating talent.
99socalfrc
Does trading Shields for Tatis give him 8 years worth of goodwill? Because that is how long ago that was. And let’s also not forget that Shields was only on the team as part of AJ’s first “spend like a madman” spree that resulted in a failure, and that the Padres ate money to move him.
99socalfrc
How low do your expectations have to be to defend AJ Preller? Results matter, and if you are happy with what he has accomplished especially in the last few years with the best owner in the sport backing him, then you really have sad expectations. Any other fanbase in the sport would expect more and would’ve run this guy out of town years ago..
Rally Goose
@El Niño No evidence that Manny wouldn’t have signed without Hosmer. And was offering Manny $300m guaranteed plus a player opt-out not proof that they were willing to spend?
Deleted Userr
Shields for Tatis is the only reason Preller isn’t working at Sizzler right now.
Smelly_Cobb
You do realize you’re talking to Padre fans, right. Yes, our expectations are low, we are conditioned that way. Just like doyer fans are conditioned to be incredibly spoiled with winning teams that can’t quite seal the deal. But that doesn’t mean a large contingent of dad fans don’t want AJ run out of town.
Deleted Userr
Manny’s agent told all 30 teams at the start of his free agency “A $300m guarantee is the absolute minimum for us to even talk to you.” Padres were the only team that offered that so he signed with them. Sounds like he wouldn’t have signed without Hosmer LOL.
Rally Goose
@TLH Yep! And this is the part where people’s heads explode and they start throwing a bunch of arguments at the wall that are conceptually unrelated to the signing.
BuT iF tHeY dOn’T sIgN hOsMeR tHeN oWnErShIp DoEsN’t FeEl ThE aDdEd PrEsSuRe To MaKe BiG mOvEs WhIlE tHe WiNdOw Is OpEn AnD pRoBaBlY dOeSn’T eVeN aTtEmPt To SiGn MaNnY aT aLl !
El Niño
@99 we beat the dodgers in playoffs on our way to the NLCS 2 seasons ago. Not my fault if you have the memory of a goldfish.
El Niño
I’ve seen a lot of players say teams, especially like the padres who historically haven’t spent, need to show a willingness – stars don’t always want to be the first to sign somewhere. Maybe he would’ve still signed here, maybe not, but I think an argument can be made that 1 led to the other.
El Niño
@haram not true. The white Sox were in on him too and had his BIL recruiting him.
OldSaltUSN
@ACK
Well, yeah, that and look at the Padres farm system. Not sure where it’ll be ranked this year, but they have 5 or 6 prospects in the top 100 again, and 3 of them in the top 50. It’ll be ranked as a top MLB farm system again. Also, he seems better plugged into the international market than most other GM’s. The first splurge of $80M about .. 2016 … can’t recall, right before the MLB restricted international money, didn’t work out. However, both international signings and drafts have had pretty good results. Almost seems like Preller’s front office team gets better every year. Winning is the goal, playoffs, world series, but the $rubber$ means the road with every MLB team with a good farm system. It’s “found money”, if it’s done right. AJP’s Padres are by all accounts, getting there. That’ll keep a GM around for quite a while.
99socalfrc
You left out the part where they missed the playoffs in 2023 with a $250m+ payroll. Who has the goldfish memory now?
Typical Padres fan, you think one NLCS appearance (where they only managed to win one game) should buy Preller another decade of goodwill. Go ask Chaim Bloom if any of the Red Sox fans mentioned his 2021 ALCS as he was packing up his office in Boston last fall.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Machado was never going to sign with the White Sox. They wouldn’t offer him the one thing he and his agent said was not negotiable.
Having his BIL on the team plus a quarter is worth 25 cents. They’d have been better off not trading for Yonder and offering Manny that money instead (on top of what they were already offering him).
Rally Goose
@El Nino No they haven’t. Link to one player actually saying that. If what you are saying is true why did Eric Hosmer sign with the Padres over the team that drafted him, that he had spent his entire career up to that point with and that offered him reasonably close to what the Padres offered him?
Anyway, how exactly does offering him $300m guaranteed, in writing right in front of him =/= “showing a willingness to spend?”
To say that Machado wouldn’t have signed without Hosmer is to say that he would have left $50m plus an opt-out on the table without Hosmer. And that he would have gone back on his pre-free agency demands of $300m guaranteed after already having those demands met. Is that really what you are trying to sell us on?
99socalfrc
@OldSaltUSN can you list for us the international signings and players Preller drafted that have ended up leading the team to the playoffs? The ones that won Cy Young awards or MVP honors? If that’s too high of a bar how about listing the ones that made an All Star team? Ones that started games for the Padres last year?
You seriously mentioned the $80m 2016 International class, admitted it was a total bust and moved right on signing Preller’s praises. LOL This guy is like Teflon I swear.
Rally Goose
Padres’ farm would be even better than it is now if they never traded for Soto. And that doesn’t even include guys like CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore who don’t technically qualify as prospects anymore but are still under 25 years old and controlled through 2028.
Deleted Userr
To be fair the entire 2016 international class was a complete bust except Luis Robert, Lourdes Gurriel and Randy Arozarena. It wasn’t just the ones the Padres signed.
Deleted Userr
Beating the Dodgers in the NLDS would have been cool if they hadn’t traded for Soto but when you sell the entire farm for one guy it’s championship or bust. The (first) Soto trade will go down as one of the worst trades in MLB history.
El Niño
@99 ya, we finished 2 games behind the diamondbacks while losing 99% of our extra inning and 1-run games, which is a statistical anomaly impossible to explain. It was a weird season.
OldSaltUSN
@99socalfrc
You set up a fake standard (straw man logical fallacy), and then want me to prove it? How many prospects even MAKE IT to the majors, is the MLB bar. GFY my friend. I was clear and honest in my post.
El Niño
It’s been reported that the padres offered judge and Trey turner bigger contracts that the yanks and Phils. If it’s only about the money they would’ve signed here. You’ll say something about taxes but not a difference in NY.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Difference is Judge and Turner are confirmed to have left money on the table. Machado on the other hand started the offseason demanding a $300m guarantee and then signed with the one and only team that met those demands. This is not a difficult concept.
wallabeechamp
You’re right! Sooooo right!
It’s also about having an actual chance to win. The Pobres made it to the LCS and won a game in that round for the first time since 1998. Phillies & Yanks have winning franchises, winning cultures & fanbases that are actually knowledgeable about the sport. You’ll never hear either of those fanbases making excuses for their team’s well earned reputation for wilting in big spots, saying it was ‘bad luck’. You guys deserved to lose the Chargers, Clippers, & Rockets.
El Niño
How do you know the white Sox didn’t offer 300? You don’t, and if you say you do you’re making it up.
Deleted Userr
Jerry Reinsdorf literally said after Machado signed with the Padres that “We couldn’t do $300m. We have 24 other roster spots to fill.” So yeah I do know that.
El Niño
Yep because owners and GMs never spin when a player doesn’t want to play for their crappy team. The white Sox had a roster full of youngsters at that time.
Deleted Userr
So your position is that every person who made a direct quote that specifically contradicts the narrative you are pushing was just lying?
… k
Deleted Userrr
@Rally Goose It kinda sounds like you are the one with the exploding head what with all the AlTeRnAtInG cApS that makes your comment almost impossible to read.
websoulsurfer
Listen to the full press conference for other mentions of why he signed with Padres.
Here is the highlights from MLB.com
mlb.com/news/manny-machado-news-conference-padres.
El Niño
@guerilla the GM is quoted as saying he thought machado would make more money in Chicago – maybe through endorsements, but nevertheless he left money on the table to join the padres.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño He can make endorsements as a Padre too. And Reinsdorf is quoted as saying “We couldn’t do $300m.” The White Sox’s contract was for $250m. He wouldn’t have gotten one cent more.
And that doesn’t even take into account the opt-out and Manny using it to bully the Padres into extending him a further 10 years. Don’t think the White Sox would have extended him last offseason if he had signed with them. Why not? Because they wouldn’t have had to.
Manny left no money on the table to go to San Diego.
Deleted Userr
@websoulsurfer I’ve already seen that multiple times and at no point does Manny say “I wouldn’t have signed with the Padres if they hadn’t signed Eric Hosmer first, all other things equal.”
El Niño
@guerilla 250 over 8 instead of 300 over 10, which is a higher AAV. Pretty dishonest way of framing that.
El Niño
@guerilla you just hang on minute details. Signing Hosmer was a signal they were done rebuilding and pivoting toward contending.
Deleted Userr
Elite free agents care more about total dollars than AAV. That is why Manny and his agent said a $300m guarantee was not negotiable. And his Padres contract ended up being for more AAV once you take into account the extension.
El Niño
@guerilla oh, now an extension in the future is in consideration? Hahahahaha what a joke.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Did offering Manny $300m guaranteed on the day of signing as long as he could stay off the restricted list not also signal that “they were done rebuilding and pivoting toward contending?”
El Niño
@guerilla then why didn’t judge or turner sign with the padres if “elite free agents care more about total dollars”?
El Niño
@guerilla offering an opt out after 5 was probably helpful too.
Deleted Userr
Judge wanted to stay with the Yankees all along. Turner prefers the east coast. I am not seeing anything from Manny even *suggesting* let alone *proving* that he took anything into consideration besides $$$ when making his FA decision.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
Given the tragic passing of Seider the most logical conclusion is he indeed was pushing spending and pushing trades to put a winner together before his passing.
We don’t know how long he was sick. But I’m sure he and his family knew well ahead of time and it was probably a close kept secret as it should be.
Now that padres aren’t pressured to win it all before the owner passes mode, we will see how preller does as gm.
In hindsight/retrospect it’s hard to fault preller for doing his best to give seider a winner given the circumstances. Sadly things didn’t go as planned but I’m sure there was a sense of do it for Seider that’s no longer there.
El Niño
@guerilla there’s literally a link posted above.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Oh, you mean the link that I had already seen before websoulsurfer posted it and that doesn’t say what you and he are claiming it says?
Deleted Userr
Absolutely an extension in the future is a consideration. That’s why Scott Boras said earlier this offseason that Bryce Harper is hoping for an extension that will keep him in Philly for the rest of his career. But he’s not gonna get one because his current contract carries him through his age 39 season and because the Phillies don’t *have* to do that unless Harper holds out or something (is that even allowed?) If Machado had signed with the White Sox he also wouldn’t have had his contract extended and even if both his options vested and all his incentives were reached he’d still be at least $100m short of what the Padres are paying him in total.
The opt-out after 5 years was a huge deal. No question.
James Midway
Wally must have had a really bad experience in SD to have this weird hatred of a city most people like. It’s always funny when someone tries to get on their high horse and say one fan base is more “knowledgeable” than another. I’ve met plenty of ignorant Yankee supporters. Every fan base has their own goods and bads. To me you sound like that spoiled kid in the store that is mad because another kid came in and got some attention. You are probably one of those sad people that yells at players too.
websoulsurfer
Do you mean the prospects the Padres traded for Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, Grisham, Soto, Bell, Clevinger, etc….?
Preller and Seidler believed that prospects are capital to either be traded for proven players or if they fill a need added to the MLB roster. So far, they have mostly been traded.
websoulsurfer
@oldsalt 17% of top 100 prospects make it to the majors and are MLB average players.
3% of top 100 prospects have a single 4.0 WAR or higher season in their MLB careers.
73% of top 100 prospects at least have a cup of coffee in the majors.
Rally Goose
Come on man you aren’t seriously citing the Soto and Clevinger trades as points in Preller’s favor. You could even make a case against the Darvish and Musgrove trades but I don’t think Padres fans are ready for that conversation yet.
Only prospects the Padres developed who put up at least 1 WAR for the Padres in 2023 were Tatis, Cosgrove and Campusano.
And no. Trading prospects when they are at the upper levels of the minors or shortly after they make their MLB debuts is *NOT* development.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I don’t think there’s any Sizzlers left in my area, I wonder if that chain is defunct?
Deleted Userr
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b Idk where you live but looking at San Diego county specifically there’s one in Mountain View, one in Oceanside and until recently there was one in Serra Mesa.
El Niño
@guerilla first you said “elite players only sign for the largest sum” then you said “they signed on the east coast for less because that’s where they wanted to be” – which is it?
Zombie Bukowski
Team made the NLCS in 2022.
Last time I checked the guy has 7-8 players in the top 100 (again) not to mention the ones he’s traded. He’s a top tier talent evaluator.
BaseballisLife
If I remember what Williams said correctly that was 8/250 guaranteed plus incentives and options that would have pushed it higher than the deal Harper eventually signed.
El Niño
@guerilla all I said was there’s a strong argument that manny wouldn’t have signed without Hosmer signing first. I never said “proven fact” or anything close. Despite your silly game of “unless manny is quoted somewhere saying he signed because of Eric Hosmer then it’s false” you haven’t proven otherwise.
BaseballisLife
Rally, are you trying to say that the value of all the players they traded for was zero?
Simm
Of course the nats and all the others traded for padres prospects because they had little value.
ACK
@OldSaltUSN I would argue Aj’s best strength is trading prospects for MLB SP’s. The Snell, Darvish, and Musgrove trades were huge wins.
Deleted Userr
@BaseballisLife Those options and incentives never would have vested. The White Sox’s offer was for $250m. Full stop.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño If you believe every elite free agent will sign with the highest bidder then statistically speaking you will be right most of the time. We have proof that Judge and Turner considered things other than money. With Manny we have no such thing. What we do have is him signing with the one team that offered him the one thing he and his agent said was not negotiable that he had no preexisting ties to this city and organization that hadn’t made the playoffs in 12 years and had a bad reputation going back even further. It’s pretty obvious why he signed. He had 30p million reasons to as a matter of fact.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño There is no argument for it. I asked for proof, you gave platitudes.
Rally Goose
@BiL Not quite all of them. Cronenworth is still around and then winning a Cy Young award and pitching a no-hitter both probably have some intrinsic value. Although it’s not clear how much.
Deleted Userrrr
I asked Manny Machado at Fanfest last year if he still would have signed if not for Hosmer and he said yes.
websoulsurfer
It was not a trade for Soto. It was a trade for Soto and Bell, 2 guys that had an OPS+ of over 150 at the time of the trade. Soto put up a 7.2WAR in 8 months for the Padres. So far he has doubled the production of the prospects he and Bell were traded for all by himself. NOW you have to add in the value that King, Brito, Vasquez, Higashioka, and Thorpe add to the Padres over the next however many years before you can decide the value of that trade.
If you can’t get simple things like that right, why should I value your opinion about anything else.
Clevinger had a 2.84 ERA down the stretch in 2020 for the Padres after that trade. A good argument can be made that they don’t make the playoffs if he is not on that team. Then he got injured. You certainly cannot fault Preller for injuries. Well, I guess stupid people can. Are you stupid?
Musgrove made 61 starts and had a 3.06 ERA in the 2 years of team control the Padres got when they traded for him. They gave up Luchessi who has made 17 starts since the trade, Head and Fellows who are both a bust, and Bednar who has been a great reliever. Huge win for the Padres.
The Padres traded for Darvish and Caratini. Darvish put up a 3.87 ERA in the 3 years of team control he had when they traded for him. Caratini played in 116 games in 2021. They gave up Davies and a group of 4 prospects. OF those, only Cassie is the only one even listed in the Cubs top 30 prospects today and he is not top 100. Davies had a 5.43 ERA from 2021 – 2023. So far that is a huge win for the Padres.
So, based on those statements you made I can safely say that I can totally ignore your opinion on baseball without missing any valuable information.
websoulsurfer
Go take a look at that link. Listen to what he said at the time. PART of the reason he signed with the Padres was the team they were putting together, and he specifically mentioned Hosmer and Myers.
El Niño
@guerilla do you have “proof” harambe is dead?
Deleted Userr
@El Niño You are the one who made the claim. The burden of proof lies on you, not me. Manny’s statements about $300m being non-negotiable and then signing with the one team that offered that even though he wasn’t from that city and had never played on that team before and they had a long history of failure is all the proof I need.
El Niño
Hahahaha keep telling that to yourself @guerilla
Rally Goose
@websoulsurfer CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore produced 0.1 WAR less than Soto in 2023. They are also cheaper and controlled 4 years longer. Anything can happen but in 1,000 simulations the prospects the Padres gave up for Soto produce more for the Nats than the dudes they got back from the Yankees well over 500 times. Only Padres homers will deny that. And then Josh Bell was a freaking nightmare in San Diego. 2 months of him was 2 months too many.
The Clevinger trade is a complete bust. Not sure why you’re defending it considering you dislike Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger is a close friend of his who has been accused of similar dealings. But the Padres lost that trade before all of that happened.
Padres didn’t make it to the WS during Darvish and Musgrove’s remaining control/contract years, only make the PLAYOFFS once in that span and both of their current contracts are underwater so “gaining the inside track on an extension” didn’t really have value to the Padres either. a 5.43 ERA is not good.
Unlike you, I will not end my comment with an ad hominem attack.
Deleted Userr
@websoulsurfer Again. I had seen that link before you posted it. I just read through the whole thing and watched all the videos again. At no point does Manny even say the words “Hosmer” or “Myers.” If he does then tell me which video (1st from the top? 2nd?) and how many minutes and seconds in because I sure as heck didn’t see it.
El Niño
Jesus @guerilla – you really have no idea how silly your argument is. “Unless he specifically name them and spells their middle name correctly it had nothing to do with him signing” give it a rest dude
Deleted Userr
Not as silly as your argument that Manny would leave $50m guaranteed and an opt-out on the table and go back on his pre-free agency demands after already having them met if the Padres hadn’t signed Hosmer first. And who knows. Maybe without Hosmer the Padres offer Manny even more money because they have more money available to offer him. Like, even in a hypothetical where Manny wants $350m guaranteed without Hosmer as opposed to $300m with Hosmer, the Padres STILL would have been better off never signing Hosmer and then just giving Manny what he wanted.
El Niño
@guerilla you have no proof, only conjecture.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Pot, kettle. Kettle, pot.
Rally Goose
And one more thing I forgot to mention is that the Padres could have gotten Thorpe et al without giving up Abrams, Gore and Wood. So even if the pitchers the Padres got from New York do well that doesn’t justify the first Soto trade any more than Tatis’ excellence justifies signing James Shields.
El Niño
@guerilla look in the mirror. I said an argument can be made (which is 100% accurate), and you moved the goal posts saying I needed “proof” which is a ridiculous thing to say.
Simm
Rally, the padres wouldn’t need to pay down mustgroves contract at all to move him.
Darvish maybe because of his age but if you look at his remaining aav then look at what players like Gibson, Lynn and others I believe those teams would take Darvish over th for what he is being paid aav wise. Perhaps they wouldn’t want the years remaining.
Now I’m not a believer that manny signed because of Hosmer. Nor do I care.
El Niño
@simm good call. I really couldn’t care less “why” he signed here. It’s amazing to me how folks hang on every word sometimes.
And I agree – most of the padres longterm contracts look pretty friendly now and will look even better moving forward as prices continue to sky rocket.
Brew88
Wish mlbtr could add a “nor do I care” button
Rally Goose
@Brew88 They did. It’s called the “mute” button. But I choose not to use that.
Rally Goose
@Simm Not sure who “mustgrove” is. As for Joe Musgrove, BTV has him at a -$8.6m. They have Darvish at a -$20.1m. I’m not sure Musgrove’s contract is underwater but it’s not that far above water either. And he’s certainly worth less than David Bednar is right now.
Deleted Userr
@El Niño Oh yeah? An argument “can be made” that the Earth is flat or that Cheeto von Tweeto won the election in 2020.
And it kinda sounds like you do care why Manny signed here.
Simm
Rally mentioning that site is useless. I can make a ton of trades on their that it says is fair that nobody in their right mind would make.
Musgrove at a 20m aav would have tons of teams lining up to get him.
Mustgrove if he was available today via trade would likely command about the same as the padres traded to get darvish from the cubs.
Rally Goose
@Simm The Cubs did not have a bunch of teams clamoring to trade for Yu Darvish. Lest you forget, only one year before they traded him their front office was furious when he didn’t opt out of his contract.
Simm
That doesn’t change the fact that they were able to trade him and now it looks like a decent return.
El Niño
@guerilla I’m not taking you seriously anymore.
Deleted Userr
I never took you seriously to begin with. “Manny Machado wouldn’t have signed if we hadn’t signed Eric Hosmer first.” Just ridiculous.
El Niño
@guerilla ohhhhhh. Strong come back!! “I know you are but what am I.” Let it go dude. You comment way too much on here – you need another hobby.
Deleted Userr
I can comment as little or as much as I like. So can you.
Again. Manny Machado’s agent Dan Lozano told all 30 teams at the start of his free agent offseason “A $300m guarantee is the absolute minimum for us to even talk to you.” Padres were the only team that offered that so he signed with them. Pretty simple equation. I don’t buy anything else.
websoulsurfer
Padres have 5. Dodgers have 5. Mets have 5. Yankees have 4. Rex Sox have 4. Phillies have 4.
The offseason is not over yet and someone has to sign Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery, and Chapman. All of those will be longer than 3 years.
Rally Goose
You think what Bellinger did in 2023 is sustainable web? In theory he’d fill the biggest gap on the Padres roster. Not sure they want to forfeit more draft picks tho.
websoulsurfer
Soto played in 2022 too or did you forget that? Because he was traded before his team control was up, you now have to include EVERYTHING that Soto and Bell produced for the Padres PLUS everything the players the Padres got from the Yankees for Soto to accurately judge the original Soto/Bell trade. Only people ignorant of how the game works will deny that.
Now you are trying to spin it to WS instead of playoffs?
Clevinger trade was a loss in hindsight. Never said it wasn’t. Just said that an INJURY is not Preller’s fault. It’s not something in his control and he doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict it. ONLY in hindsight can you claim it was bad, because at the time of the trade Preller was PRAISED for it.
Ironically, by using the words “unlike you” you just did end your comment with an ad hominem attack.
websoulsurfer
Ryan never does and he will never, ever admit he is wrong. He will come back at you on one of his alt accounts, but will still never admit he was wrong. If you can mute him, do.
websoulsurfer
No. They couldn’t have. Thorpe was drafted in June 2022.
Padres are and were looking for MLB players, not a prospect in Thorpe that had not played a single inning of pro ball at that point.
PLUS, the Padres stated goal at the time of the trade was adding BATS, not minor league pitchers.
Are you for real or are you Ryan?
websoulsurfer
Now I know you are either Ryan or Joel P.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
6/108. 5/90 was new money since he was already under contract for 2023. Do the math since you claim you are an insurance actuarial.
BTV is a joke. Only morons even try to use it. Same website that said Grisham for Judge was a no go because it didn’t provide enough value to the PADRES.
Recently the ONLY person that used BTV on here was JoelP in his many incarnations. Starting to think that is who you are, and not Ryan after all.
Rally Goose
There’s probably a reason why you know who those people are and I don’t.
Rally Goose
Thorpe was drafted in 2022 which means he could be traded the day after the 2022 WS ended.
If Clevinger getting injured was so impossible to predict why did the Guardians trade him in the middle of season despite ostensibly trying to contend that year? I’m not convinced that there isn’t something they weren’t telling Preller.
Funny that you give Preller all the credit for trades that looked like overpays in hindsight but ended up paying off like Shields-for-Tatis and Snell but none of the blame for trades that look bad in hindsight like Clevinger. The term for that is self-serving bias.
There is no such thing as an “insurance actuarial.” Funny thing is that Pads Fans also thought that was a thing. I wonder why that is…
Deleted Userr
@web You talking to yourself now?
Crash_n_burn
It has opt outs after every season, it could end up being a one year deal if he has a lights out season.
But another solid add to the San Diego Yankees pitching staff lol
King Thorpe Brito Vazquez Otto Peralta among the ex Yankees on the Padres pitching roster.
Deleted Userr
It’s a one year deal if and only if the Padres don’t want it to be.
5TUNT1N
The least multi year deal ever signed.
Os1995
It seems like they added the extra years and opt outs to as a way of minimizing the CBT hit of this deal. They are able to guarantee a player 16.5 million if things go wrong with only a 4.125 million tax hit. It also allows for opt outs so the extra team control cant hurt the player.
I’d be curious if this type of contract catches on with teams that are getting close to the CBT threshold.
thefaithfulfriar
Puts us in the same position next year. If he has a good year he opts out and is too much for the Padres ala Lugo, Wacha and Martinez. Then what do we do? Go fish…
Os1995
If he has a good year then you got a year worth of good pitching for 4.125 million dollars which is a bargain in todays market.
FanDan
A better deal was the deal the Reds gave Brent Suter. 1 year at $3M and an option buyout. Same kind of pitcher. About the same age. LH. Easily tradeable at the deadline.
OldSaltUSN
Lugo was a reliever, with a injury history if I recall. Hadn’t pitched more than 60 innings or something like that. Wacha was a starter with a injury history. Martinez was a failed MLB starter, who did well mostly as a reliever in Japan (again, pretty sure he was relieving in Japan, not certain). Bottom line, the same people looking at Preller now and saying those opt outs were stupid deals, were ragging on him for not having more than three proven starters at the start of last year, plus those three “questionable arms”.
Preller hit a jackpot with those three, the Pads lost money in their TV deal, didn’t make 2023 playoff money, and the PLANNED salary regession turned into a 20% haircut for 2024. Too bad, so sad, these three guys jumped to build their career (a.k.a. get paid), and AJP needs to find OTHER arms to fill the pitching staff again, plus keep AAV’s low. A bullpen is the most volitile part of any baseball team, and the Padres are no exception.
However, at the same time people are complaining about opt outs and “roster churn”, Preller has nearly all of the starting position players, plus rotation core, locked in long term. Nothing he does with the roster is gonna make some fans here happy.
I like the Padres. They may not be as competitive as intended under Preller, but they ain’t boring, either. 2/3’s of the MLB don’t make the playoffs every year, and only two teams make it to the World Series. The Padres as an organization are overdue, but they’re CLEARLY working hard to get there.
Deleted Userr
I’d take a boring winner over an entertaining loser every day of the week and twice on sundays.
OldSaltUSN
@thelegendaryharambe
Well, my friend, then baseball ain’t your sport. Maybe Tennis?
Because statistically, 3% of MLB teams win the World Series each year, and 93% don’t even get there. Most teams are losers, and “most” is understating the fact.
Deleted Userr
You don’t get to tell others how they are allowed to enjoy the game. All I care about is winning. What Preller cares about is pleasing the casual fans and making a bunch of splashy, headline grabbing moves.
Simm
Legend, not here to defend preller but just about every odds maker in the world had the padres as a top team going into last year and it didn’t work out. Heck even their expected winning percentage based on some stats say they should have won 90-92 games.
Things didn’t work out but preller did have a great roster assembled last season.
Sorry to interrupt you can continue your preller hate as regularly scheduled.
OldSaltUSN
“You don’t get to tell others how they are allowed to enjoy the game.” I said WHAT? Re-read my post. Simply put, you said that you preferred a boring winner over entertaining loser. The contrast was “winner” over a “loser” team. I countered to the effect that if that’s your standard, perhaps a sport without so many losers would be a better choice for you, since MOST of the MLB teams are losers.
My last comment had nothing to do with defending Preller nor attacking how you spend your time. Don’t transfer your Preller hate to me. You don’t get to do that, either.
Peace. Spring Training is nearly upon us. I think we’re ALL a little bored this offseason, chomping at the bit to get it started all over again.
Deleted Userr
I was responding to the “They may not be as competitive as intended under Preller, but they ain’t boring, either” remark.
OldSaltUSN
@thelegendaryharambe
The way this website publishes replies, I get confused about who said what where and where does the freakin’ reply go. Anyhow, I think we have few real disagreements. Peace, brother.
Simm
Old, it’s the main issue with this site…replying.
Almost every single chat thread people get confused on who was replying to who.
You have to type in the name or someone will eventually get lost.
Zombie Bukowski
Much more competitive than pre-Preller. With the way they Scotlut and draft they’re not going anywhere.
Deleted Userr
Scouting and developing is only half the battle
BaseballisLife
How much are relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA making in free agency this offseason? Seems to me its much more than $4 million.
I haven’t looked but pretty sure this website predicted a higher deal for Peralta.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
It’s 4 mill a season. Relax.
Mrski
It’s a steal. Let’s consider what ottovino signed for.
FanDan
Yeah. Only 1 year at 4.5. But then again the same franchise that gave Severino $13M. Let’s not compare with stupid.
websoulsurfer
What the heck are you talking about? ITs basically a one year deal. If he does exceptionally well then he can opt out. If so, the Padres got an incredible value, and they find the next guy like him. If he only repeats his 2023 numbers, then the Padres have a good MR at an affordable price. If he gets injured, the rest of his contract is less than one season of relievers with a similar ERA have been getting in free agency this offseason. This is a win-win-win-win.
Preller rebuilt the pen for 1/3 the money and depending on how Matsui and Go do, with guys that have a better ERA overall than the ones that were in the pen last season.
towinagain
I love this move! You can never have enough pen pieces and I’m serious.
Hopefully a sign of things to come.
I’ll definitely give credit where credit is due.
Go Padres
Joe says...
Between King and Peralta, the Pads have gotten some very good pitching this off-season.
Simm
Just yesterday you said they wouldn’t sign a single mlb guy. Guess all your hate as many gave was justified
towinagain
I’ll give credit where credit is due.
Cute, Simm, put me on blast for the lack of moves the Padres have made.
On the flipside, it’s a pen arm. None of the other areas have been addressed.
Sign a quality outfielder or two.
Soler, Martinez, or Duval for starters.
Sign some starters
Sign a first baseman.
Sign a dh.
The pen was not an area of concern.
So critical, oh yeah I’m still going to be critical, that won’t change.
Brew’88
This move (and further dimiinishing $ available for more moves) tells me they are definitely going to give several pitchers now on the 40-man a real chance to win a rotation spot. Avila for sure. Maybe Vasquez or Brito (word is they are building them both up in ST to start)
Longtimecoming
Agree with that. I still think the trade for a Luzardo type is on the table. With all of the talent coming in 25, I think I’m good just rolling with what we got but add another cheap vet – (5 mil ish)
Davies maybe? Cooper / Votto / Profar all for 10 mil maybe?
I’m also wondering about a piggyback of 2 arms every 5th day. A few guys are long options il even if they aren’t full starters.
Brew’88
Gotta love Luzardo (and every team does). Cost will be huge though; Merrill and another top 100, maybe Kim/Cronenworth tossed in. At that price they might instead opt for a cheaper rental type (Burnes?) to get them to 2025 Snelling/Iriarte/etc… But they probably can’t afford the 1 year salary for Burnes
Simm
Think lauer may get a look along with Ryu. There are a few low cost roll the dice guys still left.
Though I’m sure he is working the trade route and preller has never been shy at making a big trade.
Longtimecoming
Yeah I keep thinking bringing the band back together with Lauer and Patino. I like Ryu but not sure how much he would command so I have not been throwing him out.
Id like to keep Merrill (stick him in LF if his bat is ready in ST) – drop down a spot or 2 and add 2 15-20 guys maybe. Cro is a negative right now but hopefully bounces back.
If you add Kim you have to keep Merrill. I think Kim is a deadline trade and should get a mlb ready arm or top 60-70 prospect assuming he is still putting up 5 WAR.
The one thing to count on with AJ is there is a trade to be made before opening day.
He may have been told to cut payroll but I doubt if he was told to go full rebuild and wait for youth to arrive. The abundance of youth near ready allows a trade and some next year talent to remain.
Simm
Think the real question will be how hot does preller feel his seat is. He took a lot of heat this offseason from fans. Does he feel like this is a most win season (a lot of fans do) or does he feel like he risk a youth movement which be more risky.
Most of the padres better prospects could use another season in the minors. Including guys like Merrill, Marsee, snelling and Thorpe.
He hasn’t shown a lot of patience in the past. Maybe Peter Seidler was the one without patience due to his health issues idk.
We shall find out soon enough which route he goes…trade the farm again, sign cheap one year fill in guys or pushes prospects into action.
Longtimecoming
For me I always wonder how much input ownership has in what fans tend to seem as GM moves. If he is following ownership’s input as I believe he did with the Justin Upton era and the latest spending spree, then it’s hard to say he should be on the hot seat.
My guess is that some GM’s have more and some less control over decisions.
I mean a GM can’t take a 100 mil budget up to 250 mil in just a few years without ownership approving it. Conversely, a GM shouldn’t be fired for missing the playoffs if ownership told him to cut payroll by 25%.
This is why (in part) I don’t get all of the GM bashing – for most GMs.
Simm
What you are leaving out is this. Obviously the owner is approving these deals and likely pushing them across the line. At the same time he surely is listing to the GM on who that right guys are they should be spending on.
If the owner says hey you can spend an extra 100m in payroll this year. You still have the get the right guys or you will one on the hot seat.
I don’t think many owners are like hey go sign this guy without the gm saying it’s a good idea.
OldSaltUSN
@Longtimecoming
I recall reading back to last year, maybe even 2022, that the Padres eventually planned to level out their spending, mostly by infusing (lower paid) youth from the farm system. It was almost a laughable thought back then, since Preller had just strip=mined the Padre farm to bring in Musgrove, Darvish, and Snell. Now, it’s not looking so unrealistic.
Moreover, as most of the extreme Preller critics on this forum ignore, while the Padres said that they planned to gradually cut back spending to come under the luxury tax penalties (my take; it’s about retaining their top draft picks as anything else; when they lose those, they also negate one of Preller’s strength, i.e. drafting and signing top talent), the Padres also had some unforseeable financial shocks in 2023, problems for which they are adjusting to.
I wasn’t happy with the Bogaert signing (but hey, he was proving me wrong BIG TIME the first month of 2023 season), due to the strength that the Pads already had up the middle. I’m not sure I liked the Cronenworth extension, though at $80M it seemed like a good, long term risk that I still think Cronie will make good on. Nope, I’m not a Preller fanboy as some describe. I just think that ON BALANCE, he’s done a better job then most suggest, particularly if you look at the current status of the (once again) rebuilt Padre farm system.
If the only standard is winning, 29 teams would fire their GM’s every year. If not 29, then at least 20 teams. That “winning” standard that most push out there again, is a straw man argument. NO GM WILL EVER PASS THAT STANDARD. Billy Beane has been heralded as a genious. So also, Hoyer. How many times have they taken their teams to the World Series winners circle? I’m not gonna trash Preller, because he’s a better GM on average, than most. He has a plan. He sells it to ownership. He executes the plan, puts the team on the field, and they all roll the dice together. That’s why he still has his job. When ownership can’t understand or approve his plans, or he fails to deliver the team he promises, it’ll be time for a new GM. Nothing in Preller’s contract stipulates “winning”, or probably, even “competitive”. It’s assumed that ownership expects that, but that’s not the (only) standard by which he’s judged.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
“Sign a quality OF or 2?”
Pass. Rather let the youngsters have a shot. Batten, Rosario, Merrill, Marsee, Paulney, Bush.
“Sign a DH”
Again pass. Machado is gonna DH to start the season and just keep it open to give guys a day off after he’s capable of playing 3B. One less guy you have to carry on the roster where they’re only capable of playing 1B/DH. Position flexibility is more important.
“Sign son starters”
Why? They have a glut of SP now.
Only thing you said that made sense was sign a 1B.
Longtimecoming
What they have a glut of SP is in the category of: Unproven, maybe #5, #6, #7, #8, #9 (look up the names and assign them their spot) and a a few not yet ready prospects that might be nice in 25.
It might be a fair idea to add at a minimum a vet with #3 possibility like Wacha / Lugo / Martinez were added last year.
In Of – dude they have 2 on the 40 right now! You might get away with playing Merrill in LF if his hat is right but you can’t man 2/3 of a mlb OF with unproven / not ready minor league guys.
All of those names mentioned will get looks in ST but you can’t count on them for 2000 AB’s between them in 24.
Add a Cooper / Profar / Votto – all cheap themselves.
Ryu or someone like that would be a fair idea.
Longtimecoming
Yankees fans talking about 3rd place in NL West – ok. LOL.
What are your predictions for the AL East? Any different from last year?
vaderzim
Wily and Wandy signing back-to-back with 2 teams that start with “P” is really throwing me off.
acoss13
16.5 million for 4 years is very reasonable. I think the Yankees dropped the ball on this one. Probably the years is what stopped most teams, but that’s such a low AAV, it’s hard not to question why no one else tried to sign him. Good on the Padres, this is a good move.
charlie 6
They will only pay that if he is hurt or bad. If he is good he opts out ASAP.
Devlsh
Which makes it all the worse.
Joe says...
It’s inexcusable that Cashman didn’t get this done.
acoss13
Joe,
Cashman can’t use the luxury tax as a crutch, they’re already over the final threshold might as well go all in and put a championship team on the field for 2024. Soto is not a lock to stay with the Yankees.
Mad Hatter
Yankees would have to pay 50% more with their cap overage. That would make it over $6 million per season.
TennMan
I’m almost certain that since they are over the highest threshold and are repeat offenders, it is 110%
DR2020
I’m pretty sure Soto will not be here after this year. They’re not going to pay him the money he will be asking for. No way.
OldSaltUSN
Yep, No matter the media hype, and inspite of his numbers, I think the figures that Soto (Boras) has been looking for, will be an overpay. Now, for reasons-other-than on the field performance, a team may find themselves justified in that level of compensation. Or, I dunno, maybe a team will offer Soto a highly deferred “Ohtani” contract, e.g. $600M + deferred over 50 years. Who knows? There are 26 ballplayers on a team, plus another dozen who’ll get the MLB minimum as they cycle between the minors and MLB roster in support, and paying one guy an AAV of what, $60M? – takes a whole lot of strength out of the rosters. That’s kind of where the Padres are. No one would dispute any single signing of their top stars (maybe the recent extensions, but the initial signings look solid), e.g. Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish, etc., but the balance is the question. They are short two starters and at least two outfielders, some of which ~~ may ~~ be covered by emerging talent. A team signing SOTO to somewhere a $Billion will be forced into lux tax violations for a decade, just to keep a team on the field.
But hey, I was “concerned” back when salaries routinely peaked over a $million or in the multiple $millions. I’ve kept on thinking “… this can’t go on”, but yet it does. It make take $1000 for a family of four to see a ball game from non-nosebleed seats, but the teams are still in business, still paying these salaries. So, what do I know?
steveb-2
You’d think that with Soto in for one year only that Cashman wouldn’t be squeezing pennies for this season. I do have an issue with the possibility of tying Peralta up for a total potential of 4 years, but still it’s disappointing. $16.5M is about half of what is being thrown away on Stanton for just 1 year.
DR2020
Yes. And he has been one of our more reliable relievers over the last few years. More reliable, certainly than Holmes at various times. but Holmes is cheap, and Wanda cost more money so he had to go apparently.
Deleted Userr
Stanton? You mean the guy Derek Jeter “gave away” to his former team?
Just making sure we’re talking about about the same guy…
drasco036
It really depends on the contract structure with all the opt out clauses.
User 2161944466
Yes!!!!!!!
BlueSkies_LA
Now somebody needs to quickly sign David Peralta and make this Trey Peralta Day.
For Love of the Game
Tres Peraltas!
BlueSkies_LA
Better yet.
los_leebos
an MLB team starting with P and ending with ES has signed a relief pitcher whose first name starts with W and whose last name is Peralta.
acoss13
Would the Dodgers sign David Peralta for another year? Not sure how needy they are for another outfielder.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@acoss13
They will not. They’re already maxed out on the position-player portion of their 26-man, and have in place OF depth superior to what DP provided last year.
Peralta was a perfectly fine signing a year ago, and provided some almost-replacement-level play, but a team that expects to contend cannot feature him on its roster….
acoss13
Ah thank you for the information. Peralta will find a home not sure where though.
Longtimecoming
He actually fits the Padres needs well enough!
Salzilla
I called it, Wily signed was indeed foretelling Wandy. Good on the Pads, who at least have seriously addressed their bullpen this offseason after a huge loss there.
Also, fellow NYY fans, I also said that Gage pickup was their cheap Wandy alternative. There ya go.
TennMan
Victor Gonzalez was the sign they were not all in on Wandy. This was obvious months ago
Salzilla
Victor Gonzalez of the 4.00 era alone wasn’t the answer and no one even blinked an eye to think so. Otherwise we wouldn’t have been talking about Wandy coming back this whole time. There was always going to be a second lefty in the pen, but Gage to me was the door closer just based on cost.
TennMan
Most sports writers considered Gonzalez as the Wandy replacement, with Nick Ramirez as the main lefty. Fans and some random rumor mills discussed Wandy coming back, but I’m pretty sure this was decided long ago
TennMan
I would have liked Peralta back, but when every story coming out about Gonzalez stated he was under control for 3 years and was a cheaper and comparable option to Wandy, I think the sportswriters saw the writing on the wall. The fact that stories kept coming up about them talking to him were trivial. They have been talking to every reliever on the market. I honestly think they may be done except for lesser signings. They will move Weaver into a long man position. Moving others up the ladder. Gonzalez and Ramirez will make up the lefty tandem with Krook as insurance. They will be hoping for Effross to be healthy and guys like Poteet to be ready to step in if needed.
twozero6ix
Rare Padres W
los_leebos
Very rare, indeed. Wil Myers, Will Venable, Woody Williams, and Wally Joyner are the only W-first named Padres I can think of. Will Middlebrooks ok one more.
James Midway
Well done leebos.
Sal66
Willie McCovey,
Longtimecoming
Walt Hriniak
Longtimecoming
Willie Davis
los_leebos
How could I forget Wade LeBlanc!
Brew88
Wizard of Oz
just_thinkin
Lotta Peralta action on this website this morning.
Echopark
I really like this move for the Padres. A team that I dislike immensely!
And for Wandy, it’s a pillow contract with injury and poor performance protection. And a small raise. Assuming the dollars are spread out evenly.
Wonder if he really wanted to go to the Padres, because seems like a lot of teams could have done this contract..
jvent
Wow, another player that the Mets said that they were going after, signs elsewhere lol, what a surprise, maybe they should stop saying who they’re going after and maybe they’ll get that player lol. A lefty reliever (Aaron Loup) is still unsigned but don’t say that you’re going after him.
Yanks2
Mets are cursed; doesn’t matter who they say they’ll get or who they actually get
Seamaholic
Peralta has one of the weirdest production profiles I’ve even seen. His FIP number was more than 2 full runs worse than his ERA in 2023. His K and BB rates were mediocre at best, and his expected ERA (taking hard hit profile into account) was nearly 5. As a result, his bWAR was that of a very good to elite reliever, while his fWAR (which is FIP-based) was below replacement.
Buyer beware. Always trust FIP in pitchers if it conflicts with ERA, especially relievers. He’s gonna be 33 this year and I think he’s mid-way on a steep decline that’s been disguised by some crazy good luck the last couple years.
Os1995
FIP is more predictive of future performance than ERA but Peralta does have the type of profile that lends itself to consistently over performing what the FIP would suggest. One of the weaknesses of FIP is that it doesn’t consider balls in play and only measures the 3 true outcomes. Pitchers who induce ground ball rates and weak contact at high levels tend to perform better than what the FIP would suggest.
Seamaholic
A ground ball pitcher is expected to have a high BABiP, not necessarily weak contact. Peralta has not induced weak contact lately. His expected numbers are bad and he allows a lot of loud contact. It’s just that for a couple years he’s produced a metric ton of very hard ground balls right at infielders.
Os1995
Wandy Peralta has induced weak contact consistantly. His average exit velocity is excellent.
2023 – 86.8 (89th percentile)
2022 – 85.5 (96th percentile)
2021 – 85.7 (95th percentile)
Old York
Nice! La Grasa got signed.
Ref:
baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralwa01.shtml?u…
Nicknames: La Grasa
TrillionaireTeamOperator
A very fair AAV and a good length. This will go fine and is well deserved.
DR2020
Yes, agreed.
Aaron Sapoznik
Yet another miss by the Cubs who certainly could have benefited from a ground ball inducing southpaw veteran in their bullpen.
acoss13
I’m surprised Hoyer even signed Hector Nerris, he’s not into signing relievers.
BaseballisLife
So the Padres had added 25% of last year’s Yankees pitching staff this offseason. Interesting strategy.
Has anyone heard how the salaries are spread out by season or if they are equal?
FanDan
And I would trade Brito, Vasquez, and Peralta back to the Yanks for one season of Holmes.
Gwynning
FG has it as on the board @ $4.125 per, BiL.
Annnnd you’d be fired on the spot, Fanny.
lloyd_christmas
is this an overpay or am i just the king of IOUs
Gwynning
275 thou for that Lambo, might wanna keep that one
PaulyMidwest
Anybody should have been in if the AAV was 4 mil a year. Nuts. Neris got 9 and ppl were saying that was low.
BaseballisLife
Stephenson got $11 million and Moore $9 million. Not sure why some people are questioning this move. He would have looked good in the middle of that Mets bullpen, especially at $4 million.
Gwynning
Sweeeeet!
LFGMets (Metsin7) #ConsistentlyBannedBaseballExpert
The Mets were all in on Wandy Peralta and Aroldis Chapman. Yet the Pirates came out on top. Dollar Tree David and his dad George Costanza are losing out to the small market Pirates that haven’t done anything since Bonds and Bonilla
mlb fan
“The Mets were all in on Wandy”…Clearly you don’t understand baseball, calling a record spending team “cheap”…And the Pirates didn’t sign Wandy, Doofus, the Padres did.
James Midway
I’m sure all these former Yankees will like pitcher-friendly Petco.
OldSaltUSN
Well, Petco ain’t all that pitcher-friendly anymore, reportedly due to newer, tall buildings in the area that’s disrupting/adjusting the airflow. It’s still VERY pitcher friendly during the months when the offshore fog creates an inversion layer (or something like that), meaning that air is stagnant and the ceiling moist and low. So, 2-3 months of the year, particularly during evening games (which are most of ’em), yeah, it’s a pitcher’s park. Otherwise, a good hitter can let ’em fly in Petco as in any other ballpark.
BaseballisLife
What do they call that in San Diego? May Grey and June Gloom? My wife and I were told to not take a vacation there in May and June.
OldSaltUSN
Yeah, and it’s the pits when “June gloom” lasts through late September, when the Santa Ana winds finally blow it away in time for fire season and smoke!
Of course, I’m in Northern Idaho now, and I “enjoy” 4 seasons, Rain and Sunshine, Rain and Snow, Snow and Rain, and windy rain! lol. We don’t have major league baseball to entertain us, but between mlb.tv and our lakefront and the variable weather, we get by. I don’t miss my home state of Kalifornia — AT ALL.
websoulsurfer
The fog that is along the coast every morning and evening is called the “marine layer” here.
It is indeed called May gray and June gloom. Although you can get lucky and get a few days in a row where it’s not overcast every morning during those months.
websoulsurfer
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Sort for HR.
greatgame 2
With a FIP of 4.50 he’s been very lucky
mlb fan
“He’s been very lucky”..I love the stat nerds that think MLB is only about “good luck” or “bad luck”. Player skill, experience and craftiness have little to do with outcomes, just “luck”. Wandy must be some “lucky” guy, to be “lucky” for SEVERAL years, not just one. That’s not exactly a Mensa level take bro.
LambchoP
Bummer, Twins could have used a solid lefty for their bullpen:)
bravesfan
Pretty solid move
FunkyButtLovin
Peralta deals have me throwing up the spiderman meme today!
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Your username is crass and problematic, but it’s a free world I guess.
Paleobros
Big day for lovers of Peralta news
YankeesBleacherCreature
GL to Wandy in SD!
tedtheodorelogan
I thought Juan D was much older than that.
Gwynning
It’s the other Juan D.
Degaz
Surpised he didnt get more AAV. He could have got that much in 2 years and no one would have blinked.
Degaz
nm thought this was Wandy…lol
mlb fan
“Surprised he didnt get more”..I’m SHOCKED. The market must have CRATERED for relievers. A few days ago I heard he was asking for 3 yrs at 8M per year.
Tom the ray fan
Aj preller still one of the most overrated GMs in baseball.
Big whiffa
Top 5 gm in league e z on his talent evaluation alone because it’s elite. He’s traded away more blue chip prospects in last couple years then 1/2 the league has even developed
Deleted Userr
Ask Trea Turner, Max Fried Ty France and Emmanuel Clase about Preller’s talent evaluation.
Tom the ray fan
Is that why he traded them all away?
Zombie Bukowski
Ty France hahaha
He traded Fried when he was 21 years old. Stop it. Get help.
Deleted Userr
Do those trades reflect positively or negatively upon Preller’s talent evaluation?
Tom the ray fan
Talent evaluation doesn’t lead to wins… he’s been to the playoffs twice and once was 2020… with a franchise record payroll… but he develops talent great make in charge of scouting not mgmt.
Big whiffa
I hear ya ! I’m not defending that lol. Well maybe I’ll give it a shot. Ima reds fan and Nick krall has been behind the scenes for like 4 rebuilds pulling strings, calling shots, and setting up fall guys for when reds make a push then fall on their face again. Buuuut, it appears he’s learning. So maybe there’s hope for Preller in that aspect ? Krall has elevated reds as a top 10 organization in identifying and acquiring talent. Preller is on another level
Deleted Userr
I’ve made fun of the Reds for doing the exact opposite of everything I say they should do for the last 10 years and it almost always backfiring but they had what, 3 different prospect breakouts this past season? If they keep that up they’ll get back to where they wanna be.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
You meant to say “under-rated” right?
rememberthecoop
Meanwhile, Sleepy Jed & the Cubs still do not have a valid lefty in their bullpen.
Deleted Userr
One year from now they can either sign this dude as a FA or ask Preller to attach money/prospects in exchange for them taking him.
178iq
Morons. 4 million a year for 4 years? That’s nothing. If a MLB team can’t sign a solid left handed arm in the pen for 4 million a year then you’re the Yankees hahahahahhahaha Yankees stink.
Deleted Userr
Opt-outs after every year so if he’s any good the Yankees can bring him back next offseason, if they want.
Zombie Bukowski
Yeah and his AAV will be a lot higher than 4 and he’ll be pushing 35. Nice try though!
Deleted Userr
“If they want.”
Mrski
What many thought was a total of 4 years being an actual 2 year contract and the Yankees let his sub3 era walk who can pitch in New York.
This yankee team is showboating without any reason to think they are serious about another championship.
619MetroFriars
Just remember guys. Worst case scenario we get one full good season of Peralta’s help from this deal. Wandy is exactly the kind of guy we need pitching the 7th, and, or 8th inning against our rival Dodgers this season.
Brew’88
@619 if he’s a 1 year deal, then that’s the best case scenario. (means he pitched well and will need to opt out for bigger payday)
619MetroFriars
Best case for him personally, yes. The team? No. But I see what you’re trying to say
Brew’88
I would say best case for the team as well. If he doesn’t opt out it means he didn’t perform too well and the team will eat 4 years of underperformance.
OldSaltUSN
Compared to the $34M they paid Drew Pomeranz for what, maybe 15 or 20 appearances in four years, I’d say that $16M for four years in 2024 dollars, is a heck of a bargain.
Preller’s certainly made some blunders. For some reason, the Pomeranz contract bothered me as much or more than the Hosmer fiasco. Then again, you think “pitching costs premium dollars”, and how many teams are in pursuit of so few, available, quality arms, and $34M for a closer doesn’t sound bad …. lol … the day of the signing.
Heck, don’t get into baseball ownership unless you own a king’s ransom. Take all your money and toss it on a craps table instead. Seems like you’d have a better chance of breaking even.
619MetroFriars
Yep.
Brew’88
“Peralta’s addition provides a solid veteran arm to what looks like a volatile Padres bullpen”
I somewhat disagree Steve Adams. While there’s some truth that Suarez (health), Go, and Matsui (unproven in MLB) are not a given to be lights out, they also might be really good (especially Matsui and Suarez). And Wilson and Cosgrove have proven quite solid. Add Peralta to De Los Santos, Vasquez and Brito, and this bullpen looks deep, talented, and probably even better than last year’s which was very good. Right now it’s the strength (along with defense) of this Padres team
Simm
Padres have a prettt deep pen if two things go right. If Suarez can lock down being the closer and the two international guys do well.
Suarez, santos, Peralta, cosgrove, Wilson, Matsui, Go. That’s a prettt good 7 potentially (never know with pens). They also will have a ton of other options depending on who is the 4-5 starters. Along with guys like morejon and Jacob’s. Almost forget possibly Kolek rule 5 guy and Patino who both have to make the team or will be gone.
The biggest question about the padres pen will be the closer. 2022 Suarez and they are looking lock solid. 2023 Suarez and it gets a little iffy unless someone else steps up. Either way I feel like the padres pen is in pretty good shape.
Big whiffa
Now go trade Merrill+ for cease and eloy. Pads ready to contend !
Simm
Unless the white Sox are eating a lot of Eloy’s deal I don’t see that as an option. That’s before you even consider the insane asking price on Cease. I think if Merrill was on the table they would likely target Luzardo instead.
If they were even to consider Eloy I think Soler would be the better option.
Javia135
Who wants an Eloy? If you are going to trade, at least get a Morlock.
Big whiffa
I agree do to SD financial restraints. So work it out that way bc eloys stock couldn’t be any lower and you go get him because he has the highest ceiling of any offseason acquisition Padres have made so far.
Merrill lesko + 2 more borderline top 10 organizational prospects gets it done
websoulsurfer
Put down the can of paint you have been whiffing.
Here are realistic trade proposals for Cease. mlb.com/news/dylan-cease-trade-proposals
Eloy would cut that return by a large margin and the White Sox would have to chip in money also.
Big whiffa
Those proposals are wrote by beat writers lol.
WS asking price is sky high. So SD is gonna have to meet it if they are the buyer and no way eloy has negative trade value after WS eat 1/2 his salary. That’s ridiculous
Big whiffa
Burnes > cease
and look at how light that return was
holecamels35
Yeah because that worked well last time
andyger63
I have no idea why the Yankees did not re-sign Wandy. He was great for us.
LordD99
Perhaps they believe they got the best of him and it’s time to move on. Some concern with the peripherals. Not a fan of the contract. If he slips, you’re left with a mediocre or worse pitcher for four years.
Dmac13
Has to be the luxury tax.. 4million isn’t a ton unless they didn’t want to give him 4 years but SD did give some opt outs. I wanted him back as I think NY needs a solid lefty. They have 4 lefties now with mlb experience but none of them are solid locks all AAA to AAAA fringe types. I wonder if they would consider trading say Pereira or someone like Matt krook and Cabrera to Miami for tanner scott or puk seeing that Miami has 3 lefties in the pen and they need a infielder
dasit
for the record: yankees fans are not calling for hal to increase spending in a vacuum. this is a unique period in team history where the only way to take advantage of the judge and cole window is to spend their way out of the hole created by cashman’s cascade of mistakes
holecamels35
Padres are having one of the strangest offseasons I’ve ever seen. I get they had to cut payroll which makes total sense because last year didn’t work and money isn’t infinite despite what happens in LA, but they have gaping holes in the outfield and rotation and just said, nah, we’re signing a ton of relievers to multi year deals.
OldSaltUSN
Well, the Padres cupboard for outfielders and pitchers is not totally bare. No one wants to depend on a prospect making it (and having a ROY type season, too) for the next season, because of the extremely low success rate on prospects. However, the Pads don’t need a “Soto” star in LF, Tatis ~~ could ~~ handle CF if needed, and the Pads have some options already on roster, in the minors, or as NRI’s. Preller has substancially upgraded the pen (after the post ’23 season FA’s). Starting pitching concerns me more, because, well, there are never enough starters. Plus, both Musgrove and Darvish have health issues, and/or are getting a bit long in the tooth to base the entire season upon.
So, yeah, the Padres offseason is a bit different. However, I don’t see the crisis that most others due. I think 2024 will work out, i.e. the talent they need will be on the field. Whether than talent will work together and win, whether injuries will overtake that talent, we’ll see. It’s why they play the games, right?
Zombie Bukowski
Padres offseason in a nutshell:
A couple dozen relief pitchers
1 OF
No 1B
And I still think they’ll be better than last year.
runningwithnailclippers
Aren’t there some obvious red flags about this signing? His health may be an issue or something else if you look at his overall numbers last year. So many walks/control problems could lead to a really bad signing no matter the cost.
OldSaltUSN
He’s an MLB pitcher. That’s one red flag. He’s a reliever. That’s a second. He’s over the tender age of what, 26, or 30? That’s a third red flag. All of that makes this pitcher, like every other MLB pitcher, a total crap shoot. At least he has the track record of success. That means a lot. That means he’s better than 99.5% of the pitching prospects who have started professional baseball. That means he’s a real winner!
runningwithnailclippers
Good Points, Salty.
OldSaltUSN
I wasn’t mocking your first post. It’s just that relief pitchers are volitile. Good pitchers have bad years and then become very good. Some do, some don’t. Seems like a decent risk.
Tippin 44s
Thats a weird contract, 4 years for a RP is alot. 4.125 AAV for a good LH RP is below market average. I wonder why he didn’t pursue a 2 year deal for 12-14 million total over just 2, with his track record seems he fits into the 6-9 million AAV range & most RP’s that aren’t in their late 30’s usually sign 2 or maybe 3 year deals compared to 1 year deals for older RP’s. Maybe he was afraid he couldn’t replicate his success & thought “if I take a 2 year deal for 13 million & I am terrible then no one will sign me again, so better to get another 3.5 million guranteed on top of that now, even if the length is 4 years compared to 2 years.”
OldSaltUSN
Well, it is February 1st. Maybe Wandy just wanted to make sure he played ball again, sometime soon. Preferably in 2024. I would expect that if a deal for $14M x 2 years was out there, he’d have snapped it up. Money today is generally better than money promised tomorrow (unless your name is Ohtani, and you’re making $50M a year on side endorsements, just smiling for the camera).. Nothing’s fair in free agency. Some superstars argubly get paid WAY more than the value they could deliver, and very servicable ball players can be left in the dust.
Hey, a man’s gotta eat. and even at $4M a year, I think Peralta will do pretty well some day in retirement. These are EXACTLY the kind of late off-season deals that Preller needs to pursue, to put a balanced team on the field under the lux tax budget. He has a ways to go yet, but certain key signings could happen in the middle, or end of spring training.
Simm
Also with all the Yankees arms the padres got like king, maybe he just liked the idea of going there.
winniejones31
I thoroughly enjoy reading your responses, OldSaltUSN. You have to be a writer. No? You’re very knowledgeable and professional in your writing. It’s an actual pleasure to read your posts. Thank you for contributing here!
Edde1968
We got Victor Gonzalez and Matt Gage. bye-bye Wandy it’s been nice knowing you.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
I would’ve expected he’d get at least 6-9mil aav. He’s not even getting 5mil aav
MLBTR needs to hire editors
Adams proving once again he’s clueless about punctuation. “And” should never have a comma after it when starting the sentence. Fire Adams. He’s a hack.
Gwynning
Isn’t it technically wrong to start any sentence with a coordinating conjunction? And who cares?
64' Yanks
Thank you Wandy and good luck in San Diego. The ball does not fly out in San Diego like it does in the Stadium!
Yanks4life22
Starting to get concerned now….there are a lot of innings pitched lost this off-season without being replaced. What’s the plan here?
Gwynning
The plan is to give half your ’23 staff plenty of innings ova’ ‘ere!
LFGSD619
#freeBauer2024