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Brown: Astros Plan To Make Kyle Tucker Extension Offer

By Nick Deeds | February 11, 2024 at 5:19pm CDT

Astros GM Dana Brown has been candid about the club’s efforts to extend a member of their core ever since he arrived in Houston last winter. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the first extension the club signed under Brown’s leadership (a five-year deal for right-hander Cristian Javier), and longtime franchise face Jose Altuve agreed to a five-year extension of his own just last week. While attention has generally turned toward third baseman Alex Bregman as he heads into his final year before free agency and Houston brass indicates they intend to offer him a long-term extension offer before he reaches the open market, Brown recently made clear that Bregman isn’t the only star hitter the club plans to broach an extension with.

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio today, Brown told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette that the club plans to discuss a long-term extension with outfielder Kyle Tucker in addition to Bregman. Brown emphasized that there’s no specifically timeline for when those conversations will be held, though he noted that the club has “a little bit more time for Tucker,” who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign.

That the club would have interest in extending Tucker is hardly a surprise. Brown identified Tucker alongside Bregman, Altuve, and Framber Valdez as members of the club’s core they were hoping to extend last spring, though the club faced gaps in talks with both Tucker and Valdez before eventually deciding to wait on engaging with Altuve and Bregman until this winter. At the time, Tucker was coming off a stretch of three seasons where he slashed .274/.341/.516 en route to MVP votes in the 2021 and ’22 seasons as well as a Gold Glove award and All Star nod in the latter campaign.

The price on Tucker’s services figures to have only gone up since last winter. The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games, falling just one home run short of a 30/30 season. He led the AL with 112 RBI and earned his second consecutive All Star nod, the first Silver Slugger award of his career, and a top-5 finish in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez. Tucker and the Astros managed to avoid arbitration last month by agreeing on a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, though the sides did not use those negotiations as a vehicle to explore a longer-term arrangement.

With Tucker just one year away from free agency and coming off the best season of his young career, it could be a challenge for the club to extend the Excel Sports client. Under the ownership of Jim Crane, the Astros have never given out a contract longer than six years, nor one that guarantees more than $150MM. Just one outfielder with a similar pedigree to Tucker have inked long-term deals with between four and five years of service time: slugger Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325MM megadeal with the Marlins nearly a decade ago, in November of 2014.

This isn’t to suggest Tucker should exceed or even meet the figure Stanton received, of course. Age plays an important role in a player’s earning power as they approach free agency, a reality that heavily favored Stanton in comparison to Tucker. Stanton was on track to reach free agency ahead of his age-27 season, while Tucker will hit free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. What’s more, his overall offensive numbers pale in comparison to Stanton’s. Impressive Tucker’s career-best 146 wRC+ in 2021 was, Stanton’s wRC+ for his entire career at the time was a comparable 145, with an incredible platform season that saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+ the season prior to the deal coming together.

Even as Tucker can’t be expected to sign a deal in the same realm as that of Stanton, it’s nonetheless difficult to see Houston locking up Tucker long term without exiting their apparent comfort zone given the success outfielders have found in free agency in recent years. Former Astros outfielder George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal with the Blue Jays after entering free agency ahead of his age-31 season with a career wRC+ of 134, and more recently Brandon Nimmo re-signed with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM deal last winter after hitting free agency a year older than Tucker is slated to with a career wRC+ of 133. Given Tucker’s youth and similar offensive numbers, it seems likely he’d have a good chance to beat the deals landed by Springer and Nimmo in previous offseasons, even as both players augmented their value with the ability to play center field at the time of the deal.

While the Astros, who have just over $134MM in luxury tax payroll committed for the 2025 season as things stand, could certainly afford to give Tucker a lengthy contract, it seems likely that such a deal would require Houston to enter territory not yet charted by the club with their offer, a similar predicament to the one they face with Bregman. It also seems unlikely that Tucker would offer the club a significant hometowm discount, given comments from Brown last winter indicating that the Astros were facing a larger gap in extension discussions with Tucker than Valdez, neither of whom the club ultimately came together on a deal with.

Between the club’s hesitance to offer star-level contracts throughout Crane’s tenure as owner, Brown’s indication that Bregman is the club’s priority for the time being, and the difficulties the sides faced in bridging what was likely a smaller gap last spring, there’s plenty of obstacles facing Tucker and the Astros should they look to extend their relationship long-term. While it’s impossible to rule anything out given the difficult gaps clubs and players have bridged previously around the league, an extension for Tucker would surely require the club moving well outside of its comfort zone in terms of player payroll. That’s particularly true if a Tucker extension were to be paired with a deal locking up Bregman long-term.

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55 Comments

  1. James Midway

    1 year ago

    My prediction 7 years $125.

    1
    Reply
    • FSF

      1 year ago

      It would take probably no less than 7/$225M for Tucker to consider an extension. If he has even another average year (for him) he should easily beat even 7/$225M in free agency.

      7
      Reply
      • JackStrawb

        1 year ago

        @FSF He’s not really a 7 year FA. At a comfortable 5+ bWAR (and a hair away by fWAR), durable… it depends how much you dock him for the drop off in OAA in 2023 and the speed that’s down a lot for the last two years,

        Typically a consistent 5 win player beginning FA at 29 will get an 8 year deal, and if his sprint speed was still within hailing distance of 28 fps he’d have a shot at 9 years.

        Yeah, it’s tough to parse with the big one year drop in OAA and the two year falloff in sprint speed. Still, he’s a more valuable player than Nimmo AND he’s a year younger at the point they enter FA.

        Does the increase in OPS+ wRC+ make up for the loss of speed? You’d have to have the footage of 300 plays to know if it’s luck or decline. Bet on decline, since fielding drops off for most guys in their early 20s.

        Reply
      • BarryBongs

        1 year ago

        Yeah he’s that good. 7/225 is a hometown discount lol. A team like the Angels or Giants would give him 9/300+ as a FA if he stays healthy.

        Reply
    • filihok

      1 year ago

      JM

      I’ll take the over

      4
      Reply
    • Shadow Banned

      1 year ago

      That mother Tucker! Re signing with the cotton Picken cheaters

      1
      Reply
      • AirY0rdan

        1 year ago

        I’m confused, what do you mean

        Reply
    • Mehmehmeh

      1 year ago

      He would already be inked if Tucker’s camp was onboard with 7/125. Still, hoping you’re correct in the end.

      1
      Reply
      • JackStrawb

        1 year ago

        Inked, with a very nice parade.

        Reply
    • Pageup

      1 year ago

      That was an offer to make 15 years ago. At his age he’s getting $30 million per for 10.

      Reply
  2. Yanks2

    1 year ago

    Most underrated player currently. He hasn’t even reached his prime yet

    6
    Reply
  3. thomasg1951

    1 year ago

    Haha!
    It won’t be half of the money and years he gets elsewhere. As usually when they make that statement.

    Reply
  4. Blackpink in the area

    1 year ago

    There isn’t money to sign everyone. Gotta wonder what they were thinking with the Altuve extension.

    1
    Reply
    • Go Go Power Rangers

      1 year ago

      As much as i hate it when the rangers are facing the guy, Altuve’s deal should be without question. They should give Tucker what he wants and let Bregman walk.

      10
      Reply
  5. ❤️ MuteButton

    1 year ago

    They made George Springer an offer. They made Carlos Correa an offer. They say they’re going to make Kyle Tucker an offer, but will they make him an OFFER!!!!! ?

    I don’t see Kyle Tucker giving the ‘Stros a discount.

    4
    Reply
  6. Kevin Illyanovich Rasputin Kubusheskie

    1 year ago

    “Astros GM Dana Brown has been candidate about the club’s efforts”-
    Proof reading might help!

    1
    Reply
    • jamaicajan

      1 year ago

      I’d like to point out that you misspelled proofreading.

      20
      Reply
      • cpdpoet

        1 year ago

        Been an off day for me…this post gave me my 1st smile….ty

        3
        Reply
      • Kevin Illyanovich Rasputin Kubusheskie

        1 year ago

        yes but I am simply an annoying commenter, me misspelling a word (barely) is different then a published article where the author didn’t take the time to check.

        1
        Reply
        • cpdpoet

          1 year ago

          Bro so am I….Live and work in Chicago, so most of my MLBTR time is on the EL….some things are just funny….

          2
          Reply
  7. filihok

    1 year ago

    Seems like a good plan.

    Let’s see how the execution goes.

    Reply
  8. Jiggs

    1 year ago

    He’s earned it.

    Reply
  9. filihok

    1 year ago

    Nick Deeds

    “The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games,”

    “saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+”

    C0me on man! I’m sure FanGraphs appreciates the extra clicks because you’re not providing relevant (or parallel) information, but it’d be a lot easier for your readers.

    “George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal”

    “an eight-year, $162MM”

    MLBTR should really have a present value calvu,tor spreadsheet in the Google drive. And a document with those numbers stored.

    If you’re going to base your articles on this stuff, you should provide the relevant info

    1
    Reply
  10. Braves4410

    1 year ago

    Brown “has been candidate” WTH does that even mean? Come on man use grammar check!!

    2
    Reply
    • filihok

      1 year ago

      Imagine c9mplaining about grammar, when you could be complaining about content

      Reply
    • gbs42

      1 year ago

      No doubt it should be “candid,” but that’s such an obvious error. That was just the first mistake in that sentence.

      1
      Reply
  11. Rishi

    1 year ago

    Why does everyone on this site care so much about grammar? It’s especially pointless in the comment section when most of us are using faulty autocorrect on our devices. It just makes you all seem so petty and high-horse about such a trivial thing. As for the Stros the Altuve signing really isn’t all that bad. I commend a team for locking up a player through their entire career. They can’t keep them all. I’d let Bregman walk. Any further regression hitting will be too much for the price. If they are going to spend all this money then there may be better ways to go about this….trading Tucker could get a Juan Soto type package (if he’s not going to give you a discount why not just get prospects and sign free agents?). You already won a WS recently. A season of regression is acceptable for long term health of team.

    4
    Reply
    • filihok

      1 year ago

      Rishi

      “Why does everyone on this site care so much about grammar? ”

      Reminds me of that saying

      Dumb people talk about people, normal people talk about events, and smart people talk about ideas.

      Dumb people talk about grammar because it requires very little thought – it’s correct or it’s incorrect. Black and white. No nuance. It’s easy.

      2
      Reply
      • gbs42

        1 year ago

        If it’s so easy, why not get it right?

        Reply
        • filihok

          1 year ago

          gbs

          “If it’s so easy, why not get it right?”

          1) why does anyone ever make a mistake? Who can possibly say?

          2) I did not say that perfection was easy. I said criticizing grammar was easy.

          1
          Reply
  12. AlanZ

    1 year ago

    he will be asking for at least $35 million a year looking for 8-10 years

    2
    Reply
    • Yanks2

      1 year ago

      Lmao what

      Reply
  13. AirY0rdan

    1 year ago

    I never understtood people complaining abt grammar, get past middle school.

    4
    Reply
    • thickiedon

      1 year ago

      Their profession is writing. When a writer doesn’t bother to proofread or edit, it shows carelessness. For those of us that grew up reading the newspaper, it’s a big deal.

      4
      Reply
      • AirY0rdan

        1 year ago

        I’m sorry you feel that way…

        1
        Reply
        • filihok

          1 year ago

          AY

          Right?

          Someone on this free website made a typo. The content is ruined.

          Reply
        • AirY0rdan

          1 year ago

          IKR lol

          Reply
        • gbs42

          1 year ago

          This from someone who apparently can’t distinguish between an “o” and a “0.”

          1
          Reply
        • AirY0rdan

          1 year ago

          ?

          Reply
  14. positively_broad_st

    1 year ago

    The first number in Tucker’s total guarantee will be a 2…

    3
    Reply
    • filihok

      1 year ago

      pbs

      “The first number in Tucker’s total guarantee will be a 2…”

      10/$300 with deferrals.

      1
      Reply
    • steven st croix

      1 year ago

      10/300 is not out of the question. He still has 2 more years to build his value.

      Reply
  15. LordD99

    1 year ago

    Why announce plans to make an offer? Just make it and negotiate in the background. Sounds like they’re trying to make him the villain if he doesn’t accept.

    4
    Reply
    • YankeesBleacherCreature

      1 year ago

      That’s exactly what Brown has done with Hader and Altuve. Why wasn’t Jeremy Pena mentioned? They may get the best bang for the buck if he accepts a long-term contract.

      Reply
      • astros_fan_84

        1 year ago

        Jeremy still has 4 more years of control and is like 26/27. Hard to see if there’s a reason to extend him. He hasn’t proven to be a consistent enough player yet. Just ride out a few more prime years and see what he’s got.

        2
        Reply
  16. JackStrawb

    1 year ago

    5 WAR RFer, 27 in 2024, 29 as a FA in 2026…

    Arb guess by mlbtr for 2024 is $12.6, which would yield a 16.8m arb award in 2025, all things otherwise equal. That’s 29..4m for starters, minus a little for the % of catastrophic injury.

    8 years of FA? That would be ages 29-36.

    Say 5 WAR, then 4.5, 4.0, 3.5, 2.9, 2.3, 1.7, 1.0. = ~25 WAR

    Terrific player, NOT a superstar, not on a HOF track, and not really good enough to have a strong chance of still being a regular at 36, maybe even 35, but good enough to stay on the roster.

    25 WAR at today’s prices is roughly $225m, add $27 for the adjusted two arb awards, knock of a bit for his being 2 years away from FA

    Call it 10/$240m b. with the 2024 season.

    So that’s… around 8/$213m for a FA if he was a FA turning 29 during 2026. Bump it a little since he survived until FA. Compare w/ Nimmo at 30 getting $8/162m. So you get a much more valuable year at 29… KT has a better track record on the field, also more durable…

    3
    Reply
  17. TrillionaireTeamOperator

    1 year ago

    At this stage they can’t really low ball him and ask him to leave any potential money on the table for the guarantee, given his trajectory. He’s a 4-5 WAR or better player, which is worth $30M to $40M on the open market, factors depending.

    That means 8 years/$280M median open market value and an additional two years at like $10M and $20M for his final arbitration salaries.

    That indicates a minimum contract of 10 years/$310M or a maximum contract of around 10 years/$350M. Probably more like 10 years/$365M unless he gives them a slight discount.

    Reply
  18. Old York

    1 year ago

    Depends on the $-amount but probably makes more sense to sell high on him and get something to build again with. Seems like a bad idea to try and sign all these guys unless they are extremely team friendly and very young like the Braves did.

    1
    Reply
    • astros_fan_84

      1 year ago

      I don’t understand the idea of trading elite players while the window is open. The Astros have no financial problems and they’re trying to win a championship. They need players like Tucker far more than they need prospects.

      1
      Reply
      • Old York

        1 year ago

        @astros_fan_84

        Again, it depends on the $-amount and years being offered.

        I understand your point, astros_fan_84. Keeping elite players like Tucker is definitely tempting while the championship window is open. However, even strong teams need to think about long-term sustainability. Trading a player like Tucker, who might be nearing his peak or entering a big contract year, could secure valuable prospects or draft capital to rebuild the team later. Remember, prospects are a gamble, but having a healthy pipeline of young talent is crucial for any team’s future. Even the Dodgers, with their star power, rely heavily on their farm system. Ultimately, the goal is to strike the right balance between winning now and building for the future, and sometimes, making tough decisions like trading away stars can be part of that strategy.

        Reply
  19. solaris602

    1 year ago

    It’s gonna take bigger extensions than they’ve ever offered by quite a bit. When all is said and done I think they keep Tucker and let Bregman walk.

    2
    Reply
  20. Poolhalljunkies

    1 year ago

    Saw 7/ 125 mentioned…this guy will not sign for less than 275 mil ..unsure on the years..thats just a fact based on the current market

    Reply
  21. stroh

    1 year ago

    As an Astros fan, I really don’t see the value of telegraphing that they will make an offer, other than to let fans know they tried. If Tucker continues his current playing level next couple of years, he’s likely to get something on the order of $30M/year for 7 years or more. I doubt the Stros will do that deal. 5 years is the max they’ve done for anyone. And I agree we that philosophy. No contract with more than 5 years on it has panned out and none ever will.

    1
    Reply
    • Surly_03

      1 year ago

      These next two years are likely to be his best? Age 27 and 28 and prior to the big payday.

      1
      Reply
  22. sTpGoTexans

    1 year ago

    The article states Tucker is “…one year away from free-agency” but he is two years away. That is a big difference especially if they are working on an extension right now.

    1
    Reply

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