Astros third baseman Alex Bregman spoke to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, this afternoon and revealed that his camp has not yet received an extension offer from the Astros and that he does not expect to receive one before Opening Day this week. Bregman made clear, however, that he would be willing to negotiate during the season if the club were to approach him with an offer.
That Houston hasn’t made an offer to Bregman at this point is something of a surprise, given comments from both club owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown earlier this winter indicated that the club has every intention of making Bregman an offer before he hits free agency this November. That Bregman is willing to negotiate in-season keeps the door to the sides making progress on extension talks at some point this season open, though Spring Training is generally regarded by both players and club officials as the ideal time for contract negotiations, lest they become a distraction during the season.
Brown has long been candid about his desire to lock up the club’s core players long term, and since then has successfully extended the contracts of both right-hander Cristian Javier and, more recently, second baseman and franchise face Jose Altuve. The club reportedly explored extensions with both southpaw Framber Valdez and outfielder Kyle Tucker last offseason along with Javier, though those talks ultimately did not result in a deal. This winter, club officials have outwardly interest in retaining Bregman long-term in their public comments, with Brown even indicating last month that the club plans to reopen negotiations with Tucker but will likely prioritize Bregman for the time being.
Despite those comments indicating the club hopes to retain Bregman long term, the club appeared to prioritize extending Altuve over Bregman this winter with reports indicating that the Astros were skeptical of their chances regarding a deal with Bregman. Crane’s comments on the matter earlier this winter even acknowledged this, as the owner admitted that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance” to Altuve, who would have hit free agency prior to his age-35 season in contrast to Bregman, who will play the 2025 season at just 31 years old.
If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability to make an offer Bregman would consider accepting, they’re somewhat justified in their concerns. Third basemen of a similar caliber to Bregman have routinely found offers north of $200MM either in free agency or via extensions, as demonstrated by deals inked by players such as Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Anthony Rendon. By contrast, Marcus Semien’s seven-year $175MM pact with the Rangers during the 2021-22 offseason is the high-water mark for second basemen in free agency. That wasn’t far off from where they were ultimately willing to go for Altuve, who signed a five-year, $125MM extension last month.
Even if Bregman was willing to accept a deal with a similar AAV to Altuve’s recent extension, the disparity between their respective ages presents another hurdle. Six-plus year deals for infielders in their early thirties have become commonplace in recent years, as demonstrated by pacts such as those signed by Semien, Rendon, Kris Bryant, and even D.J. LeMahieu in recent years. It would hardly be a shock if Bregman was looking for a similar length, and the six-year, $115MM extension the club signed Yordan Alvarez to represents the only pact longer than five years in franchise history. A six- or seven-year deal worth $25MM or more, as Bregman might require to forgo free agency, would be a major departure from the club’s previous way of doing business.
On the other hand, the club figures to see more than $100MM come off the books during the coming winter, per RosterResource. Much of that money figures to go to arbitration-level players such as Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are set to earn eight-figure salaries in their final trip through arbitration next year, though even after accounting for that its certainly feasible the club could afford to offer Bregman a hefty deal. It’s also worth noting that Houston has expressed a new willingness to flex their financial muscle this winter. The club is set to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history this year, and the club’s five-year deal with ace closer Josh Hader is the sort of top-of-the-market expenditure the club has tended to shy away from under Crane’s ownership. If these changes are a sign of a new approach, rather than an all-in effort to contend while the club’s current core remain under control, it’s certainly feasible that the club could work out a deal to retain Bregman at some point, whether that be during the season or after he hits free agency in the fall.
They should pass. Six or seven years is too long. I don’t think he’ll find it on the open market either so the Astros could wait him out and keep him on a shorter deal.
This offseason was weird because several big spending teams weren’t really involved, but all it takes is a team like the Mets spending again next year and Bregman will get his money.
As an long time die-hard Astros fan, who considers himself knowledgeable about all things baseball, & keeps up with the ins & outs of the sport from analytics to prospects, I would like to keep Bregman. While Tucker is the superior player right now we(Astros) have much much more capable replacements for Tucker on the roster & in the minors than we do for Bregman. Yes Bregman is 4 years older but if we had to pick just one of them it’s a tough choice.
We have our #1 prospect Jacob Melton in the minors as a CF/RF he has plus plus speed & plus pop & defense, & will probably be ready during the 2025 season. There is also Joey Loperfido who looks ready now, & can play all 3 OF spots & 2B, he has at least average pop plus decent contact & swing decisions. There is also maybe the best OF prospect of them all Luis Baez who won’t be ready untill 2026 or 2027, but Tucker will be here untill at least through 2025 if needed. Also Colin Barber, Pedro Leon, & Justin Dirden as other interesting OF prospects in system.
Not to mention Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Yordan Alvarez, & Cory Julks (who I despise but am listing him to be thorough) all on the 40 man roster & able to ably play RF. We have no one on the 40 man roster that isnt already locked into another position (Pena) that can ably play 3B besides maybe Dubon & as I wouldn’t want him as a full time RF nor would I want him at 3B full time either.
In the minors we don’t have very many IF prospects at all, Loperfido can play 2B but apparently didn’t look great at 3B & his natural position is one in the OF. Will Wagner is more suited for 2B defensively & I doubt very very seriously if his bat is good enough to be a regular on a team much less as a 3B, a spot traditionally for one of your better hitters. The only player that is even in the discussion as maybe has a chance to replace Bregman would be Zack Dezenzo a 6’4″ 225lbs slugger who did have a great year in the minors last year & moved way up the Astros prospect list this year. But isn’t highly regarded by other other teams(nor are alot of the prospects I have listed besides J. Melton, & probably L. Baez) but Dezenzo does have monstrous pop, producing some of the highest exit velocities not just among the Astros minor leaguers, but among ALL minor league players. The biggest problem is his defense, as scouts think he is a bad defender at this point, & only going to get worse as he ages & gains even more weight, they have his best position as 1B or possibly LF. If he continues to progress though he probably wouldn’t be ready for the big leagues untill the middle of 2025 at the earliest.
So while I do think Tucker is the better overall & more valuable player that especially considering ages deserves to be the player we signed to a big contract compared to Bregman, their respective replacements or lack of make it more complicated than that. I think the Astros can, & should sign both of them to fair contracts Bregman to a 6 year extension before the 2024 regualar season starts for around 28 million per year to pair with his existing 1 year 30.5 million dollar deal for a total of 7 years & 198.5 million running through age 36 season. Tucker signs a 7 year extension during the off season for 25 million per year, plus adding his final arb year for same price makes it 8 years 200 million for Tucker total. The Astros will have JV’s salary off the books in 2026, Pressly’s off the books in 2026, Montero’s off the books in 2026, Abreu’s off the books in 2026, Graveman’s off the books in 2025. Those alone at their last seasons salaries add up to 73 million cleared off, not to mention Frambers last arb year being 2025, & probably around 20-25 mill being off the books to make it almost 100 million. That’s enough to sign Bregman, Tucker, & Valdez to extensions.
The Astros will have plenty of money to work with as long as they keep winning, especially now that they own their own channel. As they get 67% of the revenue the Chan El brings in to the Rockets 33%. What increases viewership & therefor ups add revenue? Winning! The more you win the more fans watch, & attend the games. Last season the Astros set an all time Astros revenue earned mark & had over 3 million fans attend, with room for slight improvements on those #’s. With drafting at the end of every round, & losing 2, 1st & 2nd round picks the Astros have to(& looks like they are) deviate from a draft, develop, play strategy & sign big money FA’s. Or more likely & the better option extend your own best players now, & sign FA’s to supplement your locked in core.
I think Julks has more upside than Meyers.
6 or 7y would be considered a ST deal for 1 of the best corner guys in the game. Remember, just cpl yrs back Devers got 10y/300m+ and he’s a DH in less than 5 seasons while bregman is a superb glove guy.
bregman settles for 6-7y and he’s getting more than his current 30m aav.
But everyone sees the Devers deal for what is, an albatross. I’m sure Bregman’s agent will want to use it as a comp, but front offices are going to view it as exactly the kind of land mine they want to avoid.
Bregman doesn’t really deserve a raise. His last extension was based a fluky, juiced-ball season. He hasn’t approached that production since.
Bregman still plays solid defense. Devers is a DH masquerading as a 3B. It’s not necessarily an apples to apples comparison.
He’ll be lucky to get a Chapmanesque deal. The gravy train is over boys. Ahahaha!
Jim Crane has turned the Astros into a cash cow unlike anything seen in franchise history. I read they sold 20,000 season tickets and he owns the tv rights. Plus, he owns all the minor league teams and the team’s territory is all of south Texas and Louisiana.
The money is there for Bregman. I’m not saying it’s a smart deal, but it is affordable. If the price is too high, Chapman or JD Davis would be feasible replacements.
JD Davis is a huge defensive liability and not quite Bregman’s offensive ability. Chapman is a pretty big downgrade offensively. I don’t know, if possible pay Bregman.
I think Bregman walks and Tucker gets extended. He would’ve received an offer already if they had serious interest in retaining him. The only elite 3Bs in the next offseason will be Bregman and Matt Chapman (if he opts-out). I could see the Yankees pursuing him.
And I think Crane and the Astros know this and have internally decided to let him walk. I also feel like you’re correct in that they are more focused on signing Tucker to a long-term deal.
They should try to trade Bregman, and definitely focus their attention on retaining Tucker. He is a much more valuable player.
Tucker wasn’t so valuable when it counted last year in the postseason, but that could be attributed to small sample size, I suppose. Tucker would be more worthwhile extending than Bregman, who will likely get his bag in free agency.
Yankees not going near Bergman or any Boras client including Soto. They can fill 3B on the cheap
This will be Bergman’s last year with Houston. Just hope does not go slow like others this off season.. I still wonder with Tucker. Would love to keep both but doubt will. Myself these 7 year or above contracts amaze me. Whether a player or pitcher will be great that long
He is repped by Scott Boras so I wouldn’t hold my breath.
“If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability…” It’s one thing to make a spelling mistake or awkward phrasing, but not knowing the difference between “there”, “their” and “they’re” is kind of journalism 101. It’s kind of like “to”, “too”, and “two”.
The best reporters at publications like the NYT and the WSJ are the worst at what you’re referencing. Being a great journalist has nothing to do with their, there or they’re. Top news publications have editors to review grammar. Give the MLBTR writers a break.
I’m starting to notice typos across the board (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA). I am guessing it is due to the urgency of getting your take out first.
I understand typos. That’s because of the combination of urgency, as you point out, and the lack of an editor. But what gets me about this mistake is that it’s not a typo. But as Lord points out, there is more to great journalism than this kind of stuff. It’s just a pet peeve of mine as a former editor.
Forgive me, my Lord, for I am not worthy.
Being a good journalist is definitely about spelling and grammar. Words are a journalist’s tools of trade and if he cannot manage those with any skill then he will never be a good journalist.
My favorite is counting how many times they use the word “indicate” in one paragraph. These people need to glance at a thesaurus once in a while.
Where is the 100m coming off the books from?
I don’t see Bregman getting 7 years. He has three things currently working against him: first, he’s in his 30s already, and as we’ve seen from this market, teams are very reluctant to hand out large contracts to these guys; second, he’s a Boras client, and I believe we saw a collective message to Boras from ownership this offseason; and last, his reputation has been damaged with certain teams that would be able to offer him the large contract he wants.
If I were Ohtani, I’d bet on a 4- or 5-year deal, max.
Hilarious! Well done!
He’ll be 30 when he hits free agency. I can see him getting 6 years.
Mizuhara takes the over. (Too soon?)
Federal prisons typically have softball teams.
Also, the long term effects of whatever makes him so glassy eyed
I think what has worked against Boras this time around has been a weird combination of low demand and a weaker free agent class. Snell, Bellinger, Chapman, and Montgomery all have flaws that held them back from getting those huge contracts they were/are after. The already great teams are stacked, the borderline contenders chose to retool instead, the Orioles are changing owners, and the Yankees are worried about paying a 100% tax on the next player they sign.
The money at the top is so vast and teams no longer believe in paying for role players. Couple that with the service time problems where players cannot get adequately compensated during their prime years and the game has become quite broken.
But Bregman made $100 million in his prime years. Not exactly nothing.
A rough estimate has each WAR that a player generates as being worth about $8 Million. To this point in his career, Bregman has generated 35.5 WAR, which translates to about 284 million. He’ll have been paid 107 by the end of the year.
$100 million is mind numbing to us commoners, but it’s less then 40% of what he should have got during that time, based on market value. He’ll need that late career money bag to get close to recouping his ‘losses’
How is your market value calculated? Does it understand that if young players are paid more, there will be less money for the older players? My point is that the moment younger players get full value, that market value will drop quite a bit.
I was referring to the market value of WAR itself.
Teams (the market) value players to the tune of about $8mil per WAR
My question is a real question. Does anyone know how that market value of WAR is calculated? Does it look at all players or only those who have reached free agency?
I wonder if Alex Bregman walks around with a chip on his shoulder about the $175 million he should have in the bank; but doesn’t. Yeesh. What a way to live.
Guess his trash can will only be half full of cash.
Yankees are going to be pursuing Soto, only chance they go for Bregman is if Soto signs elsewhere. Even if signs elsewhere they could look to get under luxury tax and reset. They currently are at $190M of next yrs $240M luxury tax without accounting for arbitration and pre-arb players. Torres alone sits at $14M for this season. Bregman just seems to much of a luxury for Yankees right now.
You may be right but signing Soto will keep the Yankees in the third tier CBT for the foreseeable future.
Yes and if they do stay in that tier they ll likely heavily scrutinize every signing as the cost will be so high with the added tax $ on top. My guess is the plan is if they sign Soto to try and trade Torres and a smaller piece or 2.
If they have a good season and a deep playoffs run, I don’t think it’ll matter for next season. A big IF of course.
The Yankees are paying 100% tax on players, it absolutely matters. With what they gave up to attain Soto I don’t see them letting him leave. So they ll likely look to trade Torres accompanied by a few smaller moves to get under the cap. Aside from that Bregman just seems way to much of a luxury and would hamstring them as far as future moves.
110% but who’s counting? Torres will be a free agent. Why are you assuming that they want to get under the cap and reset? They didn’t attempt to do so this offseason when they had every reason to do so after a relatively poor season to their standards. Yet they decided to sign Marcus Stroman and pay 110% of his salary in luxury tax. It’s not given that they resign Soto. San Francisco needs a franchise player.
They were already clearly going over the cap when Stroman signed. They ditch a few contracts after 2025. They can get opt out on Rizzo after this yr but at a cost of $6M so I assume they just pick up option. After 2025 Rizzo, Grisham both FAs and Stroman likely opting out looking for one last multi yr deal.
If they reset cap in 2025 DJ comes off books in 2026 freeing up another $15M with a rather loaded group currently slated to be FA’s Vlad, Bichette, Gallen, Valdez, Cease, Woodruff, etc.
Eventually it’s just very costly and under current CBA they also lose draft capital. With current roster 2025 looks like ideal time to get under the cap barring some major unforseen. It also would be an ideal time, they could make a run at a star position player or 2 from a division rival both of which have alot of name recognition(marketing value) and a very deep pitching group.
You could be right though, either Yankees you never know. I just can’t see them not with an ideal opportunity to easily do so.
As for Soto, I don’t see Yankees letting him get away. Even if he were to do so, I don’t see SF looking very appealing to him. His value is his bat and playing home games at Oracle could be difference in Cooperstown or not for a player such as Soto. He’s getting paid regardless, I’d have to imagine legacy will also be on his mind as well as well as marketing opportunities which I think ultimately tied with Yankees desire to keep him has him resigning with Yankees.
The chances of Soto remaining with Yankees is ZERO so please move on from this nonsense. Steinbrenner not paying Soto $40 million avv for a player no where as talented as Judge and some team going to give him $550-650 million total.
Who do you think Soto ends up with for $550-$650m?
@Anthony So you re saying the Yankees who just traded a ton of pitching talent to aquire Soto don’t want him???
Soto will be one of those players who plays with a different team every year because his contract demands will be too high. So he inevitably lands a three year with opt-outs after every season. And he plays well enough to opt-out. Hits free agency again. Contract demands too high. Has to settle for three year with opt-outs. Merry go around again and again. Everyone will eventually get a chance with Soto!!! The one year mercenary!!!
Bregman is overrated, just not as overrated as Tucker.
By what metric are these guys overrated? Yours? I don’t think anyone is overrating these guys. Their numbers speak for themselves.
Tucker has a gold glove, a silver slugger, 2 all star appearances, and has received votes for MVP each of the last 3 seasons while maintaining a career 133 OPS+. He also has +32 DRS in right field.
Overrated?
Tucker who was tied with Carroll for the 3rd most valuable OF in 2023 is overrated??
by any objective measure, both Bregman and Tucker are excellent ballplayers.
If anybody saw Tucker play in the postseason last year, one could possibly think he’s overrated. But I will chalk that poor performance up to small sample size.
Astros don’t have a replacement to bring up from the minors like they did for Springer and Correa unless they want to teach Joey Loperfido third base. Loperfido will probably be Abreu’s eventual replacment.
Pena to 3rd and Dubon to shortstop.
Pena is a Gold Glove SS and he has played only SS. Dubon’s GG at Utility is primarily from his play at 2B and CF. He was horrible the few games he played SS for Astros last year and for his career is about avg there. But Dubon is just not a MLB SS.
.260 cheater who flamed out quick
Byyyye
Enough with reports that Bregman or any top free agents coming to the Yankees. The Yankees refuse to go above and beyond and will continue to not spend big until Stanton goes bye bye. Soto is not staying with the Yankees. Yankees refused to pay Yamamoto more than Cole and Yankees will refuse to pay Soto more than Judge. Judge should have been in San Francisco but Yankees refuse to make any difficult decisions, especially with a player always injured.
Yet they traded for Soto and his $31MM arbitration salary and chose to sign Marcus Stroman and pay a very significant luxury tax for him. The Dodgers are paying Yamamoto in average annual salary less than Cole. Your comments are very confusing to say the least.
Yamamoto is also looking like a $325 million bust over next 12 yrs! Whats ur point?
Flames out? He had his best season in 2019, which was after the sign stealing by Houston ended (while other teams were doing it in 2019).
“He had his best season in 2019”
Cool story bro
Its 2024
Bregman fizzled out once they stopped banging on trash cans for him
I know alot of astro fans, they dont care if the tm cheated or not. Id be ashamed & disgraced
If i were an astro fan i’d focus on the new breed of (probably) non cheaters like yordan & tucker. Are those locked in for the next decade? Should be
I just proved you wrong yet you are going to just double up on the asinine view.
They literally did it for half of one season (2017) and a month into 2018. His first full season was in 2017. You need help.
Its ok man
Your favorite boyhood idols are cheaters
It happens
Just accept that they are a disgrace & should have been banned for life and didnt even get a slap on the Wrist bec manfred is a coward & botched their punishment.
Like i said, yordan & tucker are special, focus on the present. none of those 2017 guys will ever get any respect from anyone for what they did & the only way they’ll ever see the HOF is if they buy a ticket to the Cooperstown museum. They will all spend the rest of their lives in the cheater HOF with bonds & clemens. It is what it is. Just accept it. Be a man
They should give him 7/$210. He deserve it from the team.
Bregman hits 41 HR’s in 2019. Gets a big contract. Hasn’t come close since.
Who would thought would have happened.???
They stopped banging on trash cans for him
They didn’t do it in 2019…. However Bellinger and Yellich sure had nice seasons in 2019 and neither have come close to that since. Wonder what happened.
Judge hit 62 home runs in 2022 and never come close to that before or since. In percentage terms, His increase in output for 2022 over 2021 almost exctly matched what Bonds and others achieved in their “best” year. Must be just a coincidence.
Bregman’s current deal: 1 year left on 5 yrs $100M 2020-2024.
2020 ($5.7M)
2021 ($13M)
2022 ($13M)
2023 ($30.5M
2024 ($30.5M)
Value:
2020: fWAR 1.2= $9.7M / bWAR 1.1= $8.8M
2021: fWAR 2.1= $16.8M / bWAR 2.1= $16.8M
2022: fWAR 5.5= $44M / bWAR 4.6= $36.8M
2023: fWAR 4.3= $34.4M / bWAR 4.9= $39.2M
He has already exceeded the value of the deal despite the shortened COVID season and a full season remaining.
He may not continue to get 4+ WAR into his mid to late 30s, but he is among the safest bets in MLB to exceed 2 which he has done every full season of his career.
Alex Bregman will not be playing major league baseball in his late 30s.
He’s a nice, 4 win player at the moment. Give him a normal aging curve from here on out and his first five FA years yield a return of around 15 WAR. That makes 5/125m perfectly reasonable, and takes him to age 35, about when a player like AB rates to no longer be worth a regular lineup slot.
You might have to buy the 6th year to get him, but you’re not going to want it at a 25m AAV.
Understand your premise and it’s good in theory but you are off a bit in my opinion.
Bregman has 2 top of the scale MLB skills that do not diminish with age – plate discipline/pitch selection, and baseball IQ.
He also is a complete gym rat, worker who lives for baseball and legacy is important to him.
His bat speed and overall hitting production may fall off in his mid to late 30s but based on his body type and other factors, it will be a slower fall than most.
And his overall profile gives him a very high floor.
He will be a 4 WIN player for another 2-3 years, a 3.5 WIN player for another 2-3, a 3 WIN player 1-2, that and then settle in as a 2 WIN player for several years to end his career.
You are right that makes him only worth about $16M from about 37 on, but that is offset by him being worth $28M+ the first 4-6 years of any deal.
There have been no negotiations because the Astros aren’t planning on keeping him. Bregman saw the same thing with Springer and Correa so he should see the writing on the wall.
How long of a deal and for how much money is not the question Bregman needs to ponder, given his representation the question becomes will he get any of it before teams break training camp next March…
There’s no offer because his agent’s asking price was far too high.
If Bregman would sign for 5/115m the Astros would say “and would you like to keep the pen?”
It’s just the price that’s too high. They’d love to keep him.
“If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability to make an offer Bregman would consider accepting…”
Should be “their”.
Bregman turns 31 his FA year, same as Semien, but he’s not in Semien’s zip code as a player, what with 2018 and 2019 disappearing in the rear view.
5/125m is a perfectly good deal for Bregman. .
Too much for him lol.
Bregman is not in Semien’s zip code? You are right because he’s a totally different type of player and honestly a bit more uptown.
Semien has averaged 5.0 bWAR per 162g in his career and had 0.4 in his age 29 season (COVID year so that projects out to 1.1)
Bregman has averaged 6.0 bWAR per 162g and is coming off an age 29 season of 4.9.
And before you say that’s because Bregman misses time, he has played at least 155g all but 1 full season of his career.
Semien is the flashy young tech millionaire who lives uptown now but will be broke and back in the suburbs in 5 years. Bregman is the blueblood in his mansion who has plenty of jack to leave his kids and grand kids.
Imagine being that delusional that you forget about Bregman’s buddies the trashcans and then comparing stats to another ball player. Look at his numbers since his friends left the dugout… Nothing fancy.
The Astros banged trashcans in 2017 and into the first part of 2018.
He had a very pedestrian 109 OPS+ entering May 2018 and for the rest of 2018 and 2019 was the best hitter in the AL.
You are completely incorrect that he was at his best under “the system”.
Stopping the “system’ actually helped him and his career.
What hurt him is MLB changing the juiced ball. He isn’t a 40 HR guy and never should have been.
What he is, is a winning ballplayer who is a leading contributor to getting his team to the post season and then (statistically) one of the top producing post season players in MLB history.
Jeez, why haven’t his numbers been back up like they were in earlier years… Oh wait. Nvm
Bregman is a slow starter. Not this year as a free agent next year. He will have a good season. That should tell you something. Best guess is he will be a Giant next year. For a few reasons nobody wants to talk about.
I think they are ready to move on from him.