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Archives for June 2024

Alan Trejo Elects Free Agency

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The Rockies announced this afternoon that infielder Alan Trejo has cleared outright waivers and opted to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the minor leagues. While Trejo does not have the requisite three year of service time typically necessary to reject the assignment, he was nonetheless able to do so after being outrighted previously back in January.

Trejo, 28, was a 16th-round pick by Colorado in the 2017 draft but didn’t make his big league debut until 2021, when he served as an up-and-down utility depth option for the Rockies around the infield. Trejo hit just .217/.260/.326 (36 wRC+) in 50 trips to the plate spread across 28 games that saw him split time between second base and shortstop. He enjoyed a bit more action the following year and had a career season at the plate, hitting a roughly league average .271/.312/.424 (92 wRC+) in 135 plate appearances, once again as a bench player. Much of that playing time came when Trejo was made one of the club’s September call-ups that year, and he slashed .291/.341/.468 in 24 games.

That hot September (combined with an early-season injury to Brendan Rodgers) earned Trejo a larger role for the 2023 season, but he found himself unable to capitalize on it as his offense came crashing back to Earth fairly quickly. While he received 227 plate appearances across 83 games that year, Trejo posted a lackluster slash line of .232/.288/.343 (56 wRC+). The infielder’s struggles reached the point where the Rockies decided to option him to the minors in early June of last year, and while he returned in July to post a slightly improved .221/.306/.379 slash line across his final 41 games, 2024 proved to be his worst performance yet as the 28-year-old hit just .142 with a .182 on-base percentage and zero extra-base hits across 67 plate appearances for the Rockies.

That brutal performance in 2024 was enough for Colorado to decide to part ways with Trejo, and the club designated him for assignment yesterday in order to make room for infielder Aaron Schunk on the club’s roster. The Rockies’ second-rounder from the 2019 draft, Schunk figures to fill a similar role on the roster as Trejo did, sacrificing the ability to play shortstop for stronger offensive numbers. That left the Rockies to place Trejo on waivers, where he went unclaimed by all 29 other clubs. Now a free agent for the first time in his career, Trejo figures to search for a minor league deal in an organization light on middle infield depth. While the infielder has never hit much in the majors, his glovework has generally been well-received by defensive metrics, as indicated by his +2 Outs Above Average in part time duty with the Rockies last year.

Red Sox Notes: Casas, Hendriks, Mata

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In an odd moment of miscommunication earlier this month, Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas told reporters earlier this month that he had begun to take dry swings while rehabbing torn cartilage in his midsection. That was exciting news regarding the 24-year-old’s progress, but MassLive’s Sean McAdam noted earlier this week that Casas’s previous comments do not appear to have been entirely accurate.

“Oh, no, just in my mind,” Casas said (as relayed by McAdam) when asked to elaborate on his previous comments about taking swings. “Without a bat, just in my head. I’ve taken thousands of at-bats like that. I feel great.”

Despite Casas’s previously reported step towards swinging a bat apparently having been entirely imaginary, McAdam noted that the slugger had truly resumed swinging on Wednesday, when he swung a bat 20 times after an MRI the previous day revealed that his ribcage had healed properly. As noted by MassLive’s Christopher Smith earlier today, manager Alex Cora told reporters that Casas has subsequently ramped up to 30 swings and is feeling some “general soreness” as he kicks back into gear and prepares for his return to the majors. Cora went on to suggest that the soreness may not impact Casas’s timeline much, adding that he might resume swinging as soon as tomorrow and could continue to do some baseball activity today. Despite the soreness not being much of an issue, however, Cora suggested that it’s unlikely that the first baseman will return to action in the majors before the All Star break.

Thats not necessarily shocking, given the fact that Casas hasn’t seen game action since late April and will surely need a rehab assignment to get back up to speed. While that post-All Star break target is a far cry from the July 2nd date Casas floated for his return earlier this month, its not necessarily surprising that he would be about two weeks behind that schedule given the fact that he didn’t start swinging a bat until about two weeks after he first indicated he was resuming doing so.

Regardless of the unusual situation, Casas’s return is sure to provide a shot in the arm for a Red Sox club that has enjoyed a 10-4 record over their last 14 games. Despite that strong recent performance vaulting them firmly into the AL Wild Card mix alongside teams like the Royals and Twins, Boston’s offense has posted a relatively pedestrian wRC+ of just 102 since Casas went down with injury, and Dominic Smith has slashed a paltry .209/.308/.317 (78 wRC+) in 47 games filling in for Casas at first base. That’s a far cry from the production the young slugger offered when healthy in the first month of the season, as Casas will boast a .244/.344/.513 slash line on the season when he returns to the lineup, although that came in a sample size of just 90 trips to the plate.

Casas isn’t the only potentially impactful piece who’s on the road to recovery from injury. Veteran closer Liam Hendriks, who the Red Sox signed to a two-year, $10MM guarantee over the winter, underwent Tommy John surgery back in August of last year when he was still a member of the White Sox but has long been targeting a return to the big league mound around or shortly after this year’s trade deadline, which has been set for July 30. Hendriks has been making solid progress in that pursuit, as Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reported that after throwing a 15-pitch bullpen session earlier this week he followed it up with a 20-pitch bullpen yesterday. McCaffrey added that Hendriks said that he was “feeling good” following yesterday’s and that the plan is for him to move up from two bullpen sessions to three next week before determining next steps beyond that.

Seeing as Hendriks has already resumed throwing, it seems likely that he would be on pace to return sometime in August as previously expected. While the 35-year-old was limited to just five innings of work last year between his aforementioned Tommy John surgery and a battle with Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma that caused him to miss the first half of the season, the veteran hurler has long been regarded as one of the league’s top bullpen arms. From 2019 to 2022, Hendriks pitched to a sensational 2.26 ERA (188 ERA+) and 2.13 FIP while striking out an eye-popping 38.8% of batters faced in a combined 239 innings of work. Adding a player with that sort of resume to a bullpen that’s already employs Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin in the late innings could make for a lethal three-headed monster at the back of the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch if Hendriks is able to stay on track and return healthy.

Joining Hendriks in working his way back from a largely lost 2023 season is right-hander Bryan Mata, who pitched just 27 innings last year due to a strained teres major muscle. The right-hander and former top prospect for the Red Sox has yet to make his big league debut, but is a particularly interesting case given the fact that he is out of options and will need to either be added to the club’s active roster or subjected to waivers once healthy enough to return to action. It’s long been considered unlikely that Mata would clear waivers without being claimed by another club, meaning that 30 days after Mata begins a rehab assignment, the Red Sox will need to make a decision regarding his future in the organization.

As noted by Smith earlier this afternoon, Mata began a rehab assignment for the club earlier this month and reached the Triple-A level on Thursday. The right-hander impressed in 2 2/3 innings of work as his fastball reached 97.8 mph, though he surrendered two runs on two hits and a walk during the appearance. He’ll follow that performance up with another rehab start with Worcester this coming Tuesday. That pattern figures to continue for the remainder of his rehab assignment, as Cora told reporters (including Smith) that the club plans to keep Mata on a starter’s schedule but limit him two or three innings per appearance.

While Mata hasn’t enjoyed much success amid injury-marred campaigns in 2023 and 2024, it’s not hard to see why the Red Sox would want to keep the righty in the fold. After all, it was just two seasons ago when the youngster dazzled with 83 innings of work spread across four levels of the minors that saw him post a 2.49 ERA while striking out 30.3% of batters faced. If he can post anything close to those numbers in the majors, even in a bullpen role, he would surely be a valuable asset to the Red Sox as they attempt to chase their first playoff appearance since 2021.

Diamondbacks Reinstate Zac Gallen From 15-Day Injured List

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As expected, the Diamondbacks reinstated Zac Gallen from the 15-day injured list today, as Gallen prepares to start Arizona’s game against the Athletics.  Left-hander Brandon Hughes was optioned to Triple-A yesterday to open up a roster spot for Gallen’s return.

Gallen suffered a right hamstring strain just six pitches into a start on May 30, so he’ll now return to action after almost exactly a month off.  The rehab process went pretty smoothly for the ace right-hander, as he didn’t even make any minor league rehab starts during his recovery.  Gallen instead tossed live batting practice sessions, simulated games, and bullpens to ramp up and get ready, and a 67-pitch sim game last Monday was essentially the final step of the process.  Once Gallen came out of a Thursday bullpen session feeling good, the D’Backs finalized their plans to start Gallen today against Oakland.

Needless to say, getting Gallen back after just a month is a sigh of relief for the Diamondbacks, considering how injuries have plagued Arizona’s rotation.  Eduardo Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM free agent deal over the offseason but has yet to pitch after suffering a lat strain during Spring Training, and Merrill Kelly will be out until at least mid-August due to a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder.  Jordan Montgomery’s late signing and subsequent late start to the season has also led to some inconsistent results for the left-hander, and between some other struggles for the younger starters, Arizona ranks only 27th of 30 teams in rotation ERA this season.

Gallen was again a bright light for the rotation, with a 3.12 ERA in his first 11 starts and 57 2/3 innings before his hamstring strain.  Missing a month could hurt Gallen’s chances of his third straight top-five finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, yet helping get the Diamondbacks into contention again is surely the chief priority in Gallen’s mind.  Despite the starting pitching concerns and a 39-43 record, the D’Backs are 3.5 games back of the last NL wild card spot, so getting even average results from the rotation could put Arizona more firmly in position for a second-half surge.

In other news about Rodriguez, manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com and other media that the left-hander will undergo an MRI in a week to ensure that everything is progressing as expected with his lat muscle.  Rodriguez has been throwing at distances of 105 feet, but if the MRI is clean, he’ll start a more intensive throwing program.

Red Sox Claim Alex Speas From Astros

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The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Alex Speas off waivers from the Astros.  Speas was designated for assignment by Houston last week.

A second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft, Speas didn’t really start to live up that prospect status until the 2023 season, when he had a 2.86 ERA over 56 2/3 combined innings (28 1/3 frames each) at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  It was a comeback season for Speas, who missed virtually all of 2019-20 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he stepped away from baseball entirely in 2022.  Speas’ minor league performance earned him his MLB debut, as he had three appearances and two innings with the Rangers last July.

Texas designated Speas for assignment in late September, and the White Sox quickly snapped him up on waivers.  This started a run of frequent trips to DFA limbo and the waiver wire for Speas, who was designated by Chicago and then dealt to the A’s in early April, and designated again by Oakland at the start of May before Houston made another claim.  This latest stint with the Astros did result in one more big league game for Speas before he was again DFA’ed and now finds himself as a member of the Red Sox organization.

It is easy to see the appeal in Speas, whose fastball sits in the high 90’s and has been known to hit the 100mph threshold.  The tremendous velocity has helped Speas post a 32.73% strikeout rate across his 165 1/3 career innings in the minors, yet his whopping 18.24% walk rate provides an easy answer to why the 26-year-old has yet to gain a solid foothold in the big leagues or even in the upper minors.  Over 21 2/3 combined Triple-A innings this season, Speas has a 10.38 ERA, and bouncing between three different teams provides only a limited excuse considering that Speas has more walks (22) than innings pitched.

The Sox are the latest team to see if they can solve Speas’ control problems, or at least make them passable enough so he can be a viable Major League hurler.  Boston’s pitching development system has been overhauled under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow with some improved results already showing at the MLB level, and Breslow himself knows a few things about harnessing and managing control issues from his own days as a pitcher.

Jordan Romano To Receive Evaluation After Continued Elbow Discomfort

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Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano is set to visit Dr. Keith Meister on July 2, manager John Schneider told reporters (including the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi).  Romano has been on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation for almost a month, and his throwing work has now been halted for a second time due to continued soreness.  Some soreness last week led to a pause for a few days, but Romano has now been shut down from throwing entirely after a throwing session yesterday.

While Schneider noted that no structural damage has been found in other examinations of Romano’s elbow to date, it is naturally a little ominous to hear that any pitcher is visiting Dr. Meister.  It was just earlier this month that Meister performed a UCL surgery on another prominent Blue Jays pitcher in Alek Manoah, and a similar procedure represents the worst-case scenario for Romano if his recurring elbow problem is due to more than just inflammation.  Romano would miss at least the next year of action recovering from an internal brace procedure (one of Meister’s specialties) or the standard Tommy John surgery would likely keep him out of action until Opening Day 2026.

Today’s news is the latest twist in what is increasingly looking like it might be a lost season for Romano, who has a 6.59 ERA over 13 2/3 innings and 15 appearances.  These underwhelming numbers came in between both his current IL stint and another season-opening IL stint also due to elbow inflammation, as Romano didn’t pitch in his first game until April 16.

Romano has been Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons, posting a sterling 2.37 ERA over 186 innings while recording 95 saves in 106 chances.  While Romano could be homer-prone and his 9.2% walk rate was nothing special, his 30.3% strikeout rate was powered by a strong one-two punch of a fastball/slider combination, helping him receive All-Star nods in both 2022 and 2023.

More will be known after Romano’s consultation on Tuesday, but an extended absence could potentially bring his tenure with the Jays to an end.  Romano is under arbitration control through the 2025 season, though if his 2025 campaign is now in jeopardy altogether, the Blue Jays could consider not even tendering him a contract this winter.  Perhaps more likely, the Jays might explore a two-year extension with Romano, locking him up for both 2025 and what would hopefully be a fully healthy 2026 season.

Even if the elbow problem proves to be relatively minor, it almost surely means that Romano will still be a Blue Jays beyond the July 30 deadline, as it doesn’t seem likely he’ll be back on a big league mound in a month’s time.  A healthy Romano might have been a prime deadline trade chip for a Jays team that looking to be falling out of contention, though obviously having a healthy and effective Romano in 2024 could’ve greatly altered Toronto’s fortunes.  With Romano, Yimi Garcia, Erik Swanson, and Tim Mayza all waylaid by injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Jays’ relief corps has a 4.78 ERA, ranking third-worst in all of baseball.

Brewers Place Jared Koenig On 15-Day IL, Designate Chris Roller

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The Brewers announced a trio of moves today, including Jared Koenig’s placement on the 15-day injured list due to left forearm tendinitis.  Milwaukee has selected the contract of left-hander Rob Zastryzny from Triple-A to take Koenig’s spot on the active roster, and to create a 40-man roster spot, outfielder Chris Roller was designated for assignment.

With a 1.66 ERA over 38 innings this season, Koenig is the latest in a long string of unheralded pitchers to suddenly emerge as key members of Milwaukee’s bullpen.  After spending much of his career in independent leagues and the Australian Baseball League, Koenig didn’t even make his debut in affiliated baseball until he pitched for the Athletics’ Double-A affiliate in 2021, and he made his MLB debut in the form of 39 1/3 innings of 5.72 ERA ball with Oakland in 2022.  He then spent 2023 with the Padres’ Triple-A squad before being released, and he signed a minors deal with the Brewers last November.

Milwaukee selected Koenig’s minors deal to the big league roster in mid-April, and while he was optioned a couple of times, the southpaw has remained on the 26-man since the start of May since he was simply pitching too well to demote.  Koenig’s 89.7% strand rate and .238 BABIP are doing a lot of the heavy lifting on that ERA, but his 3.42 SIERA is still more than respectable, and generated by a 49.5% grounder rate and above-average strikeout and walk numbers.  Koenig’s sinker has a modest 94.5mph average velocity, but it quickly become a devastating pitch that has limited hitters to a .276 wOBA this season.

The 30-year-old’s breakout year has now unfortunately been halted by this injury, which Koenig told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) has been an issue “for the last few weeks.”  He’ll receive an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of any damage, though Koenig’s feeling is that the team’s medical staff “are not overly concerned” for now.

With Koenig sidelined, the Brewers will replace him with another left-hander signed to a minors deal in the offseason.  Zastryzny is a veteran of five MLB seasons, pitching with the Cubs from 2016-18 and then with the Mets, Angels, and Pirates in 2022-23, as those two stints were sandwiched around a three-year gap of time in the minors and the canceled 2020 minor league seasons.  Zastryzny has a 4.70 ERA over 59 1/3 innings and 45 total appearances in the Show, including his 4.79 ERA in 20 2/3 innings with Pittsburgh last season.

The numbers have been better at the Triple-A level for Zastryzny over the last few seasons, with a particular spike upward in his time with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate — a 3.18 ERA, 34.2% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate in 28 1/3 innings in Nashville.  It will be interesting to see if this production can carry over to the majors and whether or not the Brewers might’ve revived another pitcher, as Zastryzny joins Bryan Hudson and Hoby Milner as the left-handed options in Milwaukee’s bullpen.

The 27-year Roller was a 30th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2017 draft, and his long road in the minors finally resulted in a cup of coffee in the Show this season.  Roller appeared in a single game for the Brewers, pinch-hitting and playing three innings as a defensive sub in center field in Milwaukee’s 10-2 win over the Pirates on May 15, before being optioned back to Triple-A a few days later.

Roller has been in the Brewers’ organization since Milwaukee acquired him in a trade with the Guardians last August.  The 27-year-old’s Triple-A performance has been pretty respectable over his career, though it has been dragged down by a .201/.238/.321 slash line in 168 PA with Nashville this season.  It was enough for the Brewers to decide make Roller the odd man out of the roster mix, so he’ll now be exposed to the DFA wire before Milwaukee can potentially outright him off the 40-man.

Guardians Activate Eli Morgan, Designate Zak Kent

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The Guardians announced some roster moves today, including the official signing of Matthew Boyd to a Major League deal, and then Boyd’s placement on the 15-day injured list as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Right-hander Eli Morgan was also activated from the 15-day IL, while righty Darren McCaughan was optioned to Triple-A and righty Zak Kent was designated for assignment.

Debuting in the majors as a starter in 2021, Morgan has found a lot more success since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.54 ERA in 145 innings for the Guardians from 2022-24.  That includes a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings this year, though that impressive number is heavily tempered by a 5.47 SIERA, as Morgan’s secondary metrics include an 11.1% walk rate and a 15.6% strikeout rate.  That K% is well below his 26.5% mark from 2022-23, though Morgan might be able to more fully get on track now that he has recovered from a month-long bout of elbow inflammation.

Cleveland acquired Kent from the Rangers this past March, in a trade that sent some extra international bonus pool money to Texas.  Kent had spent his entire career in the Rangers’ system since being a ninth-round pick in the 2019 draft, but his time with Triple-A Columbus has consisted of just three appearances.  Kent hasn’t pitched since April 14 due to a right elbow strain, so today’s transaction is likely a way for the Guards to move Kent off their 40-man roster and potentially move him to the big league 60-day IL.

This would give Kent the first MLB service time of his career, as he has yet to make his proper on-field big league debut.  The righty has some solid minor league numbers (including a 2.73 ERA over 66 career Triple-A frames), but he has been hampered by injuries in each of the last three seasons.

Blue Jays Designate Tim Mayza For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that left-hander Tim Mayza has been designated for assignment.  Righty Jose Cuas (just claimed off waivers from the Cubs last week) has been called up from Triple-A Buffalo to take Mayza’s spot on the active roster.

Today’s news likely ends Mayza’s tenure with the Jays, which began when he was a 12th-round pick for the club in the 2013 draft.  (Danny Jansen was a 16th-round pick in that same draft and is now officially Toronto’s longest-tenured player.)  Designating Mayza would’ve seemed inconceivable just a few months ago, as Mayza was quietly one of baseball’s better relievers in 2023, posting a 1.52 ERA over 53 1/3 frames.  A 3.11 SIERA was a little less flattering, but Mayza still had solidly above-average walk and strikeout rates, as well as elite grounder (58.2%) and barrel (4.1%) rates.  Mayza allowed only two homers over his 53 1/3 innings, as while he allowed a fair amount of hard contract overall, his ability to keep the ball in the park greatly limited the damage.

However, the dropoff has been as sharp as it was unexpected.  Mayza has already allowed three home runs in 24 2/3 innings this season, contributing to a garish 8.03 ERA.  The Statcast numbers reveal a slew of below-average metrics, including a 13.2% strikeout rate that is among the worst in the league, and a 39.1% grounder rate that is far below the 54.4% career average that Mayza carried into 2024.  A .367 BABIP has partially contributed to Mayza’s problems, though while his 5.03 SIERA is three runs lower than his ERA, it is clear that Mayza’s struggles are due to far more than just bad batted-ball luck.

Things reached a low point in Mayza’s last two outings, as he faced eight batters and allowed seven earned runs without recording even a single out.  These two disastrous performances (against the Red Sox last Monday and against the Yankees last night) raised his ERA from 5.47 to 8.03, and essentially might have forced the Blue Jays’ hand in making a tough call on a veteran reliever.

Starting the season with four years and 156 days of MLB service time, Mayza needed just 16 more days on the big league roster to hit the five-year threshold, so he is now far beyond that mark.  Five years of service time gives Mayza the right to refuse a minor league assignment, and though he has two minor league options remaining, it could be that Mayza exercised his right to pass on a trip to Triple-A Buffalo.

In deciding to DFA Mayza, Toronto has now left open the possibility that he could leave the organization altogether via waiver claim.  A claiming club would have to cover the roughly $1.7MM remaining of Mayza’s remaining salary, and since the Jays would be eating that money in the event of a release, it is possible teams might choose to see if Mayza indeed hits the open market in order to save some cash.  That said, Mayza’s salary isn’t particularly onerous, so any number of teams with bullpen needs might very well be looking to put in a claim or to work out a trade with the Blue Jays during the DFA period.  As rough as Mayza’s performance has been in 2024, he could be an interesting change-of-scenery candidate, given his stronger career track record.

After a Tommy John surgery cost him the entire 2020 season, Mayza returned to post a 2.67 ERA over 155 relief innings from 2021-23, along with a 24.9% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and 58.3% groundball rate.  He has naturally been a lot better against left-handed batters than right-handed batters over his career, and even amidst his struggles this year, Mayza has held lefty swingers to a .280/.362/.360 slash line in 58 PA.  The batting average and OBP leave something to be desired, but at least this version of Mayza can still limit the power of left-handed hitters.

Since Mayza is also a Super Two player, he has another year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency following the 2025 season.  If Mayza joins another team and gets back to his old form, he suddenly becomes an inexpensive piece for a club’s roster next season as well.

Blue Jays relievers have a collective 4.78 ERA this season, ranking 28th of the 30 Major League bullpens.  Injuries to Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia haven’t helped matters, but Romano was struggling even when not on the injured list, and both Mayza and Erik Swanson (who has been optioned to Triple-A) saw their production crater after impressive 2023 seasons.

Between the leaky bullpen, the inconsistent offense, and a starting rotation that pretty average across the board, not much as gone right for the Blue Jays as they have stumbled to a 37-44 record.  The Jays already parted ways with another struggling homegrown player in Cavan Biggio earlier this month when Biggio was traded to the Dodgers, and if Mayza is also traded or claimed away on waivers, the moves essentially act as harbingers that Toronto will be selling at the deadline.  GM Ross Atkins said two days ago that the Jays are still “focused on building the best possible team we can this year,” but “if we get to a point where we need to adjust, we’ll be prepared to do so.“

Jed Hoyer Discusses Trade Deadline, Cubs’ Struggles

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The Cubs’ 4-2 loss to the Brewers Friday dropped Chicago to a 38-45 record, and a .458 winning percentage that tops only the Marlins and Rockies among all National League teams.  With a 17-31 mark in their last 48 games, the Cubs simply haven’t been playing good baseball for the better part of two months, leading to a lot of speculation about the team’s plans heading into the July 30 trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer addressed this topic and many others when speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) prior to yesterday’s game, saying “I don’t think it’s time yet for that full conversation” given that the deadline is still a month out.  However, Hoyer admitted that “we’ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner” and things needs to turn around quickly.

“We have to play well this month,” Hoyer said.  “I think you have to be a realist when you get to that point….You have to make the best decisions for the organization based on the hand you’re dealt that year.  We’ll see what that is.”

It was just last season that the Cubs were 45-51 on July 20 before rattling off an eight-game winning streak that convinced Hoyer to make moves to bolster the roster at the deadline, rather than sell.  Jeimer Candelario was acquired in a trade with the Nationals and helped Chicago post a scoring 18-9 record in August 2023, though a late-season fade left the team just short of a playoff berth.

If the Cubs get on track with another big win streak, or if they keep losing at this pace, Hoyer’s deadline decision will be relatively easy.  Given the team’s win-now mode and the investments made in the roster, it might also be fair to say that the Cubs will be more prone to adding at the deadline if they’re even near the .500 mark but still within striking distance in the wild card race.  (Even now, Chicago is just five games out of the last NL wild card berth.)

Turning to how the Wrigleyville squad might approach selling, their same roster-building endeavors also lead to a lack of obvious trade candidates.  As Rogers notes, most of the Cubs’ roster is under longer-term control, either via contracts or players under arbitration control.  While Chicago hasn’t played well, the idea of the Cubs blowing things up and having a fire sale of their core simply isn’t realistic, so any deadline selling would surely be made with an eye towards contending in 2025.

Hector Neris and Kyle Hendricks are free agents this winter and Neris’ track record would lead to some interest from bullpen-needy teams, even though he and Hendricks have both struggled for much of the season.  Cody Bellinger can become a free agent if he opts out of the last two years and $52.5MM of his current contract, though his decent but unspectacular play creates some doubt as to whether or not an opt-out would lead to Bellinger finally landing a big-ticket multi-year contract.  This same gray area in regards to Bellinger’s status as a rental or a possible longer-term piece would impact his possible status as a trade candidate come the deadline.

The Cubs opted to keep Bellinger at last year’s trade deadline, though it could be a different story this year barring another July surge.  “Teams like the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have recently had a noticeable scouting presence around the” Cubs, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney, and Ken Rosenthal, and Bellinger has long been linked to the Yankees on the rumor mill.  The 37-45 Rangers are in even worse shape than the Cubs, but the defending World Series champs are another team who could pivot to selling if they can start winning in July.

Until the deadline nears, all Hoyer and his front office can do is hope their struggling lineup and bullpen in particular perform better.  Hoyer’s disappointment was clear, as he said “when you look at where we’ve performed this year with a team that’s stronger [on paper], it’s lesser.  Is that frustrating to me?  Absolutely.  If it’s frustrating to me, I have to imagine it’s frustrating to the fans.”

Outright Assignments: Kuhnel, Emanuel

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Rounding up some recent outright assignments….

  • The Brewers outrighted Joel Kuhnel to Triple-A Nashville, as per the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Kuhnel was designated for assignment earlier this week, and for the second time this month, he has been outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster.  The Blue Jays previously outrighted Kuhnel, and he opted for free agency and a subsequent minor league deal with Milwaukee.  It isn’t yet known if he’ll choose free agency again over accepting this outright assignment, or if Kuhnel perhaps wants some stability after already being part of three different organizations in the last two months.  A veteran of five big league seasons, Kuhnel’s 2024 resume consists of two innings in a single appearances with the Astros at the MLB level, and a 2.52 ERA over 25 Triple-A relief innings.
  • The Marlins have outrighted left-hander Kent Emanuel to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to his MLB.com profile page.  This is the fourth time Emanuel has been DFA’ed and then outrighted to the Marlins’ top affiliate in the last three months, and it seems likely that he’ll again accept his outright rather than test the free agent market.  Amidst the flurry of contract selections and outrights, Emanuel has posted a 6.75 ERA over 9 1/3 relief innings for Miami, which represents his first MLB action since 17 2/3 innings with the Astros in his 2021 debut season.  Emanuel also has a 6.60 ERA in 30 Triple-A innings this season, but despite these rough results, he’ll probably continue in his role as bullpen depth and a perpetual 26th or 27th man on the roster.

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