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Bryan Mata

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2023 at 7:38pm CDT

The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals Brandon Walter Brayan Bello Bryan Mata Chris Murphy Chris Sale Corey Kluber Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Josh Winckowski Kutter Crawford Nick Pivetta Tanner Houck

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Red Sox Prospect Bryan Mata Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | April 14, 2021 at 12:33pm CDT

The Red Sox announced Wednesday that pitching prospect Bryan Mata underwent Tommy John surgery in Los Angeles yesterday. The right-hander was diagnosed with a “slight” tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in early March and hoped to avoid surgery. After several weeks of downtime, however, it appears the outlook had not changed. He’ll miss the 2021 season and the early portion of 2022 as well.

Mata, 22 next month, is widely regarded as the organization’s top pitching prospect. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2019 and posted a combined 3.43 ERA, 24.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate in 105 innings across two levels that season. Had he been healthy, he’d likely have been ticketed for a return trip to Double-A and may even have emerged as a candidate to join the big league club later in the year.

Instead, as is the case with injured prospects around the league, Mata will now go about two years without playing in a competitive game setting. The lack of a minor league season in 2020 deprived prospects around the game of critical development time, and Mata will tack another 12 months onto his layoff from competition. He did see some work at the Red Sox’ alternate training site last summer, so it’s not as though he was completely idle, but the lost time to refine his skills nevertheless stings. Of course, Mata has youth on his side and could still very plausibly make it to the big leagues in his early 20s if he’s able to make a relatively swift recovery from yesterday’s procedure.

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Boston Red Sox Bryan Mata

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Pitching Notes: Payamps, Mata, Osuna

By TC Zencka | March 6, 2021 at 4:17pm CDT

The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their divisional tug-of-war over right-hander Joel Payamps. The Blue Jays claimed Payamps from Boston today, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Payamps began the winter as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he made four appearances totaling seven innings over the past two seasons. The Red Sox claimed the 26-year-old at the end of November, but since early February he’s been passed back and forth between Boston and Toronto every two weeks. The Blue Jays claimed him on February 10th. The Red Sox claimed him back on February 22nd. Today the Blue Jays have claimed him again, designating Jacob Waguespack for assignment to make room, adds Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). This isn’t perhaps the stakes that we’ve come to expect out of AL East rivalries, but it’s about as good as it gets this time of year. Let’s see what other news is fit to print…

  • Red Sox prospect Bryan Mata has a slight tear in his UCL, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Mata will avoid surgery for now, though there’s no timetable for his return. Mata is the 4th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system per Baseball America. He’s ranked third in their system by Fangraphs. Obviously, if rest and rehab don’t do the trick, a long road to recovery may await the 21-year-old right-hander. For now, however, Mata and the Red Sox remain optimistic. He made it as high as Double-A in 2019 with 11 starts, a 5.03 ERA/3.99 FIP and promising 52.1 percent groundball rate.
  • Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Notes Toronto Blue Jays Bryan Mata Jacob Waguespack Joel Payamps Roberto Osuna

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Health Notes: Leake, Sox, Rox, Angels

By Connor Byrne | March 3, 2021 at 6:33pm CDT

Right-hander Mike Leake does not plan to sign before the season opens, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Leake, then a Diamondback, sat out last season because of COVID-19 concerns, and Heyman writes he could return to action this year “if things are more back to “normal.”’ The 33-year-old innings eater has rejected “multiple offers” in free agency, Heyman adds. During his most recent season in 2019, Leake put up a 4.29 ERA/4.79 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate (15.2 percent) but an excellent walk percentage (3.2) over 197 innings between the Mariners and D-backs.

  • White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal is scheduled to make his Cactus League debut Monday, according to manager Tony La Russa (via James Fegan of The Athletic). Madrigal missed about a month in 2020, his first major league season, with a left shoulder injury and then underwent surgery in October. The 23-year-old batted .340/.376/.369 in 109 plate appearances, and though he rarely struck out (6.4 percent), he also didn’t hit for any power (zero home runs, .029 ISO).
  • White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal is also sidelined at the moment, having suffered a twisted right knee last week. La Russa said Grandal is progressing in his recovery, but the team doesn’t have a target date for his return right now, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays. Grandal turned in yet another strong season in 2020 – his first with the White Sox – as he slashed .230/.351/.422 with eight homers over 194 PA and was a finalist for the Gold Glove Award at his position. He’ll be all the more important to the White Sox this year with previous backup James McCann having signed with the Mets in free agency.
  • The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela has a right hamstring strain that will delay his Cactus League debut by two starts, manager Bud Black told Thomas Harding of MLB.com and other reporters Wednesday. Senzatela has been a regular in the Rockies’ rotation since he entered the majors in 2017, and the 26-year-old righty posted a career-best 3.44 ERA (albeit with a far less encouraging 5.02 SIERA) over 73 1/3 innings a season ago.
  • Angels righty Gerardo Reyes is dealing with a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays. The Angels are determining next steps at the moment, Ardaya reports, but UCL injuries are always scary for pitchers. Reyes hasn’t taken the mound yet for the Angels, who acquired him from the Padres for catcher Jason Castro last August. The 27-year-old reliever made his big league debut in 2019 with 26 innings of 7.62 ERA ball, but he struck out 32.5 percent of the batters he faced and averaged 97 mph on his fastball.
  • Red Sox righty Bryan Mata has triceps soreness and will undergo an MRI on Thursday, per Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. Mata, 21, ranks as one of the organization’s top prospects, with Baseball America placing him fourth overall and contending that he could be a No. 3/4 starter in the future. If healthy, a 2021 big league debut could be on the table for Mata, who has topped out at the Double-A level thus far.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels Notes Antonio Senzatela Bryan Mata Gerardo Reyes Mike Leake Nick Madrigal Yasmani Grandal

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Red Sox Add 7 Players To 40-Man Roster; Weber, Hall Designated For Assignment

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2020 at 5:45pm CDT

The Red Sox designated lefty Matt Hall and righty Ryan Weber for assignment Friday afternoon, per a club announcement. Additionally, southpaw Kyle Hart cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Pawtucket.

Those three moves helped clear space for the team to select seven players to the MLB roster: catcher/infielder Connor Wong, right-hander Eduard Bazardo, third baseman Hudson Potts, righty Bryan Mata, righty Connor Seabold, outfielder Jeisson Rosario and lefty Jay Groome. All seven are now shielded from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

It’s something of an indictment on Boston’s 2020 pitching staff that Weber, who ranked third on the team in innings pitched, was immediately cut loose. Both Hart and Hall started games for the Sox in 2020 as well. The team’s leader in innings pitched, Martin Perez, had his option bought out at season’s end.

Ownership might not have wanted to publicly acknowledge that the team punted the 2020 season, but the nature of the moves involving the team’s 2020 pitching staff speak for themselves. This club was always a long shot to contend in a deep AL East, although certainly the injury to Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez’s unsettling bout with myocarditis after a Covid-19 battle didn’t help their cause. A lack of depth was always plain to see, however, and this club long looked ill-prepared to deal with inevitable injury troubles that virtually all teams encounter.

Mata, 21, has climbed as high as Double-A and has long been considered one of the organization’s better young arms. Groome probably needs some development time after injuries have slowed the former first-rounder’s career.

Several of today’s names have been added to the system via high-profile trades across the past 12 months. The 24-year-old Wong has also played in Double-A, and as one of the pieces received in the Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster, is someone the team has high hopes for in the future. Potts is a 2016 first-rounder of the Padres who came over in the Mitch Moreland swap and has also reached the Double-A level. Rosario also landed in Boston via that swap, though he’s further from the Majors having not yet played beyond Class-A Advanced. Seabold could get a look in the rotation as soon as 2021 after coming over from the Phillies in the Brandon Workman/Heath Hembree trade.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Bryan Mata Connor Seabold Eduard Bazardo Hudson Potts Jeisson Rosario Kyle Hart Matt Hall Ryan Weber

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Red Sox Add 5 Prospects To 60-Man Pool

By Jeff Todd | July 14, 2020 at 9:39am CDT

The Red Sox have added five of their top prospects to the organization’s 60-man player pool, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter) and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter links). That leaves the organization with five remaining openings.

Infielder Jeter Downs, the club’s consensus top prospect, leads the way. He’ll report for Summer Camp along with outfielder Jarren Duran, southpaw Jay Groome, and righties Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata.

Every one of those players has a top-ten spot on the latest MLB.com Red Sox farm ranking, so it’s a significant infusion of organizational talent. The club obviously doesn’t expect any of these youngsters to crack the Opening Day roster, or they’d have been in camp already, but they’ll now have a chance to train at full throttle with the team’s other best players.

Though Downs is the most-awaited of the group — expectations are high after he came over in the Mookie Betts swap — it seems the two righties have the clearest near-term path to the majors. Houck reached Triple-A last year and Mata topped out at Double-A, so both are among the more advanced arms that could be called upon if a need arises.

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Boston Red Sox Bryan Mata Jarren Duran Jeter Downs Tanner Houck

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