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MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

Rangers Acquire Merrill Kelly

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The Rangers announced the acquisition of starting pitcher Merrill Kelly from the Diamondbacks for pitching prospects Mitch Bratt, Kohl Drake and David Hagaman. Texas designated first baseman Blaine Crim for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kelly is the most significant of three deadline pickups for the Rangers. They also deepened their bullpen by adding Phil Maton and Danny Coulombe. The Rangers leaned even harder into their identity as a pitching and defense team after evidently being dissatisfied with the asking prices on top hitters.

The 36-year-old Kelly was arguably the best rental starter who changed hands. He has turned in a 3.22 earned run average through 128 2/3 innings. That comes with a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage and a league average 7.4% walk rate. Kelly doesn’t have massive swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s a plus command artist with a long track record of mid-rotation performance. This will his third sub-4.00 ERA season within the past four years. Last year’s 4.03 earned runs per nine is his worst mark since 2021.

That’s rock solid production that’ll make Kelly a high-end #3 starter in Texas. He’d slot behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi as the expected playoff rotation if the Rangers qualify. They have plenty of work to do in that regard — they’re currently tied with Seattle for the final AL Wild Card position — but opponents would have a very tough time scoring against them in October. Patrick Corbin and Jack Leiter figure to round out the starting five for the time being. That could push Kumar Rocker back to Triple-A.

Kelly is playing on a $7MM salary. It’s the final year of what turned out to be a very team-friendly extension that he signed with the Snakes early in the ’22 season. Texas is taking on roughly $2.22MM for the stretch run. They also added around $950K on Coulombe’s deal and picked up roughly $634K on Maton. The Rangers have wanted to stay underneath the $241MM base luxury tax threshold. RosterResource unofficially estimates them around $236M. The actual number is likely to be above that by season’s end as players trigger incentives, but it seems the Rangers at least stayed on the border of the threshold while making a trio of acquisitions on the pitching staff.

Arizona had already dealt Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor as they sold off most of their impending free agents. The biggest question on deadline day was whether they’d trade both Kelly and Zac Gallen. Ultimately, they only found what they considered a satisfactory offer on Kelly. Gallen will finish the season in the desert and quite likely receive and reject a qualifying offer. The D-Backs valued the compensatory draft pick they’d receive in that scenario more than whatever teams were willing to trade for Gallen, who has underperformed this season.

Kelly’s superior year allowed the Snakes to get a trio of minor league arms. They focused their trade returns on upper level young pitching. Drake, a 6’5″ left-hander, is the highest regarded of their new prospects. He placed fifth in the Texas system at MLB Pipeline and ninth at Baseball America. BA feels the former 11th-round pick projects as a multi-inning reliever, while Pipeline projects him as a back-end starter.

Drake has struggled over four Triple-A starts but turned in a 2.44 ERA through 12 appearances in Double-A. He sits around 93 MPH and has a four-pitch mix with advanced command. He’s 24 years old and will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He should debut at some point next year at the latest.

Bratt, 22, is a 6’1″ lefty who was selected out of high school in the 2021 draft. The Canadian southpaw has spent the whole season at Double-A Frisco. He has pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a plus 28.5% strikeout percentage and minuscule 4.3% walk rate in 18 appearances. Bratt placed ninth in the system at Pipeline and 14th at Baseball America. He’s a good athlete with above-average to plus command but fringe stuff that could make him a fifth starter. He’ll also need to go on the 40-man roster this offseason.

The 22-year-old Hagaman is a little further off. He was a fourth-round pick out of West Virginia last summer. He underwent Tommy John surgery last year and has been limited to eight professional appearances. Both BA and Pipeline ranked him in the middle third of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects. The 6’4″ righty has an impressive three-pitch arsenal but struggled with command in college. He could be a long-term reliever but will get a chance to develop as a starter.

Arizona’s player development staff now has a lot of young pitching talent with which to work. Most of those players could be on the MLB radar by next season. In the meantime, veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani will stretch out from long relief to take Kelly’s rotation spot (relayed by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). He has a 3.86 ERA in 23 1/3 frames and should be a serviceable innings source so the D-Backs don’t need to press their younger arms into early action.

As for Crim, he’ll be placed on waivers in the next few days. The 28-year-old first baseman got a brief look earlier in the season when the Rangers optioned Jake Burger to Triple-A. He went 1-11 with a walk. Crim has a career .283/.374/.487 batting line in more than 1600 plate appearances at the top minor league level.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.5 first reported the Rangers were nearing a Kelly deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed there was an agreement in place. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Arizona was acquiring three prospects, including Drake and Hagaman. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was first on Bratt’s inclusion. Image courtesy of Charles Leclaire, Imagn Images.

Red Sox Interested In Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara

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The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5MM this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7MM this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17MM salary, then there’s a $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Reiner, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Open To Moving Both Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly

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The Diamondbacks remain a sub-.500 baseball team with just days to go until the trade deadline. They’re ten games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and six games out of a playoff spot, leaving them with minimal hope of a miracle run back into postseason contention. As a result, they’ve turned their attention more fully towards selling with deals that shipped Josh Naylor to Seattle and Randal Grichuk to Kansas City in the past week. That sell-off only figures to get more substantial from here, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested over the weekend that after initially resisting the idea of trading both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the coming days the pair could both be pitching for other teams in August if the club receives strong enough return packages for them.

As the team’s downward trajectory in the standings has continued, the value in keeping one of Gallen or Kelly around in the second half has diminished considerably due to the lack of a realistic path to the postseason. Still, either one would receive and reject a Qualifying Offer this winter if retained, allowing the Diamondbacks to recoup value in the form of draft pick compensation. Additionally, Rosenthal suggests that Arizona brass is concerned about the club’s pitching depth if it were to lose both Gallen and Kelly from the fold. Given that, the Diamondbacks would need to not only receive more than the value of the draft pick they could recoup over the winter to move their two starters, but also enough to make up for the additional strain on their rotation.

That the Diamondbacks would at least consider trading both Gallen and Kelly makes sense. After all, Fangraphs projects them for a meager 5.4% chance at the postseason entering today, and with a core of talent still in place to help bring the club back into contention for 2026 and beyond augmenting those years ought to be the club’s priority. It’s understandable, however, that Arizona is looking at its group of injured pitchers (including Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, and Justin Martinez) and the strain losing reliable arms like Gallen and Kelly would put on their remaining healthy arms with some trepidation. That’s why the club is already reportedly targeting young pitching this summer, and it stands to reason that if the Diamondbacks can land a big-league ready starting pitcher or two who can be reliably plugged into their rotation to eat innings down the stretch, that would go a long way to convincing them to part with their veteran rentals.

As noted by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, GM Mike Hazen acknowledged over the weekend that he was receiving “strong interest” in both of his rental starters. That’s hardly a shock, as both Kelly and Gallen have an argument as the best rental pitcher available. Kelly has pitched to a 3.22 ERA with solid peripherals this year that’s consistent with his status as a solid #2 starter, while Gallen is in the midst of a down season but has shown ace upside in the past with third-, fifth-, and ninth-place finishes in NL Cy Young voting over the years. Both pitchers offer solid enough track records of success in the postseason as well, something that other intriguing rentals like Dylan Cease and his 12.91 career ERA in the postseason cannot boast, though Kelly’s excellent 2.25 career ERA in the playoffs shines much brighter than the 4.54 figure of Gallen.

Interest in starting pitching in general is strong league wide this year, so it’s hardly a shock that Gallen and Kelly are no exception to that. The Blue Jays and Cubs are among the teams to have been directly connected to at least one of Kelly or Gallen at this point, but a number of other teams are known to be on the prowl for a starter. That includes the Yankees and Giants, both of whom appear to be prioritizing rotation help, although other clubs like the Padres, Tigers, Mets, Red Sox, and Astros all also expected to be at least somewhat involved in the rotation market. With so many teams looking for starters, it seems likely that the Diamondbacks will have plenty of intriguing offers for their pair of veteran hurlers that they can sort through in the coming days.

Diamondbacks Reportedly Planning To Be Deadline Sellers

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The Diamondbacks seem to have picked a lane. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they are informing rival clubs that they plan to trade at least some of their veteran players, though the extent of their sell-off is still to be determined. Many of their players are impending free agents and qualifying offer candidates, so the trade returns would have to notably eclipse QO compensation for the Diamondbacks to pull the trigger on trading one of those players. It also seems they don’t want to totally wave the white flag on 2025, so they won’t just sell any theoretical candidate.

It’s a tricky spot for the club to be in. As noted by Rosenthal, the club may not want to punt the 2025 season. Back in 2023, they snuck into the playoffs with 84 wins and ended up going all the way to the World Series, eventually falling to the Rangers. But their 2025 club has been decimated by injuries, particularly on the pitching side. Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery, A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez and others have required season-ending surgeries. Notable position players like Gabriel Moreno and Pavin Smith are also on the shelf.

Despite all of that, the club has hung around the playoff race. General manager Mike Hazen has spoken about how he would like to act as a buyer at the deadline but needed the club to justify that position by winning games. They came out of the All-Star break with a sweep of the Cardinals, but then got swept by the Astros. They are currently 50-53 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. They’re not totally buried but it seems the club has decided this may not be their year and some decisions should be made to help the club focus on the future.

Moving more clearly into seller position will have its advantages. With the expanded postseason, many clubs are still in contention, which makes it a seller’s market. By making some attractive players available, the front office could do a lot to help the Diamondbacks in the future.

Young pitching seems likely to be a focus. The rotation is set to lose Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to free agency. Burnes will still be recovering from his surgery for a lot of next year. The 2026 rotation projects to include Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. Rodríguez and Pfaadt are struggling this year. Nelson is doing well but has only really had a rotation spot for about six weeks, having been in long relief until injuries opened a spot for him. The Snakes could improve their 2026 rotation outlook by getting some younger pitchers now.

Eugenio Suárez seems the most likely player to be traded. He’s an impending free agent and his stock is tremendously high right now, since he’s been on a heater for more than a year. Dating back to July 7th of last year, he has 60 home runs, a .277/.334/.607 batting line and 154 wRC+. He has a $15MM salary this year, which will leave about $5MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

He will be highly attractive. He’s already been connected to teams like the Cubs, Yankees, Mariners and Reds. Rosenthal mentions those teams and adds the Mets to the pile. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix says 12 teams in total have contacted the Snakes about Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Mariners and Yankees are the most aggressive of the suitors, though the market appears to be very crowded.

The Mets have a cluster of young infielders which includes Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. Baty is the only one in that group having a good season, though he’s also been playing some second base, so it’s possible he could co-exist with Suárez. The Mets are also reportedly willing to trade from that infield depth, so it’s possible Suárez could be brought in as part of a bigger shake-up.

With that hot market, it’s easy to the appeal for the Snakes in cashing in. It’s also possible that it could hurt their 2025 chances less than trading some of their other veterans. Jordan Lawlar is one of the top prospects in baseball but has been blocked from getting a big league audition. He can’t be expected to come up and produce at the same level as Suárez but it’s possible he could run with the opportunity and make up some of what is lost. He is currently out with a hamstring strain but could be back in the coming weeks. Even if he doesn’t come up and immediately succeed, there would be value in the Diamondbacks giving him an extended audition before they have to make key offseason decisions about their lineup.

There are some parallels on the other side of the infield. Josh Naylor is an impending free agent and consistently above-average hitter. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has a .272/.336/.462 line and 121 wRC+. He is making $10.9MM this year, which will leave a little under $4MM to be paid out as the deadline nears. Smith has been putting up big numbers the past two years and could take over for Naylor at first, though he’s currently sidelined by an oblique strain. Naylor has been connected to the Mariners though they are reportedly more interested in Suárez.

As mentioned, Gallen and Kelly are also impending free agents. Rosenthal has previously suggested the club is unlikely to trade both as they will still need innings to get through the season. That’s a bit of an odd hedge. They could always grab cast-offs from other clubs, Erick Fedde types, to finish the year. But perhaps the Snakes are trying to walk a fine line where they sell some pieces without totally punting their 2025 campaign. Trading one of this duo but keeping the other could be a compromise along those lines.

Kelly is having the better season but Gallen has higher theoretical upside. Jesse Rogers of ESPN recently reported that teams were a bit more interested in Gallen, despite the recent results. Gallen, 29, has a 5.58 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate this year. Some of that might be luck, as he his 65.1% strand rate and 16.7% home run to fly ball rate are both to the unfortunate side. His 4.16 SIERA suggests he might not be too far from his past self, though his hard hit rate and barrel rate are also quite high this year, so it might not be all luck.

From 2022 to 2024, Gallen tossed 542 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 44.4% ground ball rate, 3.20 FIP and 3.60 SIERA. FanGraphs credited him with 12.1 wins above replacement in that time, seventh among all pitchers. It’s understandable that teams looking for rotation upgrades, particularly for the postseason, would be intrigued by acquiring Gallen and getting him back to that level. He is making $13.50MM this year, which will leave about $4.5MM left to be paid out at the deadline. He’s been connected to the Blue Jays but should be of interest to several other pitching-needy teams.

Kelly, 36, doesn’t have the same ace ceiling but has been more steady. He is in his seventh season with the Snakes and has a 3.76 ERA. That figure was 3.37 in 2022 and 3.29 in 2023. Last year, injuries limited him to 13 starts and his ERA jumped a bit to 4.03. This year, it’s back down to 3.32. He has a 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate. He’s making $7MM this year, so he’ll have just $2.33MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Any of those four players is a plausible candidate to receive and perhaps a reject a qualifying offer candidate at season’s end. The exact value of the QO hasn’t been set, but is likely to be somewhere around $22MM. The 2024-25 qualifying offer was $21.05MM and it usually goes up annually.

The Diamondbacks are a revenue-sharing recipient, which affects their compensation for a player rejecting a QO and signing elsewhere. If the player ultimately signs for $50MM or more, the Snakes would get an extra draft pick just after the first round. Less than $50MM and the pick would come just ahead of the third round.

While teams value draft picks, drafted players usually take a few years to reach the majors. The Diamondbacks are presumably hoping to contend again in the near future, while they still have core players like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte putting up great numbers. By trading these impending free agents, they could garner returns of prospects who are closer to the majors than anyone they would draft next summer. That should move the needle to the trade side, though it also seems like they’re leery of totally bottoming out their chances of hanging in the race this year.

In addition to those names, the Diamondbacks could also sell other impending free agents, such as Randal Grichuk and Shelby Miller. Those players wouldn’t bring back huge returns, though they’re also less essential to the club contending down the stretch in 2025. The Snakes have also reportedly gotten some interest in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is signed through 2027. They have also reportedly listened to offers on controllable outfielders like Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy. Time will tell how aggressively they smash the sell button but it seems like the Diamondbacks will be one of the most interesting clubs to watch over the next week.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

D-backs Expected To Target Young Pitching At Deadline

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The Diamondbacks enter the unofficial second half of the season with a 47-50 record  that has them buried by 11 games in the NL West and sitting 5.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot (with four teams to leapfrog to get there). General manager Mike Hazen said two weeks ago that he hopes the team puts him in a position to buy at the trade deadline. The team has gone 4-8 since he made those comments. FanGraphs gives the Diamondbacks just a 10.2% chance to make the postseason. Baseball Prospectus is ever so slightly more charitable at 11.3%. The D-backs open the second half with a three-game series against a 51-46 Cardinals team. They follow that with three against a last-place Pirates squad but then face a pair of first-place clubs — Tigers, Astros — in the final stretch leading to the trade deadline.

Suffice it to say, the outlook for 2025 isn’t great. Hazen spoke with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic at this week’s All-Star festivities and acknowledged that the Snakes “are running out of time” and that they would “need to play pretty exceptional” baseball to get back into a buy position prior to the deadline. Hazen also conceded that he’s been fielding inquiries from clear buyers already but naturally wouldn’t commit one way or another when asked about his willingness to make a move well ahead of the July 31 deadline.

[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Trade Deadline Outlook]

Arizona isn’t short on marketable assets, even if the goal is to hang onto players controlled beyond the current season. Corner infielders Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor would be two of the best bats on the market. Suárez was plunked on the hand in last night’s All-Star Game but remained in the contest. Postgame x-rays were negative. Randal Grichuk would be a nice role player for a team looking for a right-handed bat with a long track record versus lefties.

On the pitching side of things, Zac Gallen has struggled all season but has an excellent track record. He looked to be turning a corner with terrific starts on July 1 and 7 (combined 13 innings with one run on 10 hits and a 19-to-1 K/BB ratio) before being rocked for six runs in his final start prior to the break. Merrill Kelly (3.34 ERA in 116 frames) has been strong all season, though, as have relievers Jalen Beeks and Shelby Miller. Both Beeks and Miller are on the injured list — the latter due to a forearm strain on which he is ominously seeking a second opinion. If one or both returns in timely fashion, they’d be obvious trade targets for clubs seeking affordable bullpen help.

It’s at least possible the Diamondbacks will listen on more controllable players. They’re reportedly listened on their outfield depth. Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere, but each of Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk could hold varying levels of appeal.

If the D-backs do end up as a seller, which seems likely, Piecoro suggests they’ll prioritize adding pitching they can control beyond the current season. That’s only logical with Corbin Burnes facing a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery and both Kelly and Gallen hitting free agency at season’s end. Lefties Blake Walston and Tommy Henry also had UCL surgeries this season — Walston in March, Henry in June. Young righty Cristian Mena is on the 60-day IL due to a shoulder strain. The injury problems extend to the bullpen, where top relievers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk had Tommy John surgery just last month.

Looking ahead to the Diamondbacks’ 2026 rotation mix, they’ll have Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson all locked into spots. The former two have struggled to ERAs north of 5.00 this season. Nelson has a 3.68 ERA in 78 1/3 innings. Other in-house options, like 24-year-old righty Yilber Diaz (one of their top prospects entering the season) and 27-year-old Bryce Jarvis, have had nightmare seasons in Triple-A. Diaz currently has an ERA north of 11.00.

Given the broad-reaching slate of injuries and departing free agents, it’s sensible to focus on pitching help to the extent possible. That doesn’t mean the D-backs will turn away offers that include enticing young hitters to take on lesser pitchers, but if two packages of comparable quality are offered up, the D-backs seem likely to favor one that skews toward the pitching side of things.

Of course, the D-backs needn’t focus entirely on rebuilding their staff in the next two weeks. They have nearly $75MM in salary set to come off the books via free agency and could save further money via trades in the next two weeks. Their arbitration class isn’t large, and one of their most notable arbitration salaries (Puk) could come off the books via non-tender. His UCL surgery was just last month, and 2026 is Puk’s final season of club control. There should be ample space — and need — to pursue help both in the rotation and the bullpen this offseason.

Blue Jays Interested In Zac Gallen

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After operating with a short-handed rotation for much of the season, starting pitching is a natural need for the Blue Jays as the deadline approaches.  The Jays “are looking for a front-line pitcher,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen is one of the hurlers on Toronto’s target list.

The D’Backs took a 46-50 record into today’s game with the Angels, and they sit 6.5 games back of the final NL wild card spot.  A team with such high expectations (and a club-record payroll) might wait until closer to the deadline before finally deciding to sell, but barring a major winning streak after the All-Star break, it certainly looks like Arizona will be moving some talent at the deadline.  Nightengale writes that the Diamondbacks are already open to discussing impending free agents, which could make Arizona a sought-after trade partner if such players as Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, or Merrill Kelly are available.

Gallen is perhaps the most difficult player of that group to evaluate in terms of trade value, as he is posting the worst season of his seven-year MLB career.  The righty has a 5.40 ERA in 115 innings and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, including some of the worst hard-contact rates of any pitcher in the league.  Gallen has been prone to hard contact even in his best years, but a worsening walk rate over the last two seasons has contributed to his struggles.  A 4.18 SIERA indicates that Gallen should be out-performing his actual ERA, though those are still the numbers of more a mid-rotation arm rather than a front-of-the-rotation type.

The catch is that Gallen has looked like an ace in the past, with three top-nine finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume.  His best finish was a third-place result in 2023, when Gallen had a 3.47 ERA over 210 innings for an Arizona team that made a surprise run to the NL pennant.  The 210 frames was a career high for Gallen, and he added another 33 2/3 innings on his arm during the Diamondbacks’ lengthy playoff run.  It can’t be overlooked that Gallen hasn’t quite looked the same since that signature season, as his production took a step backwards in 2024 before his sharper downturn this year.

Arizona is surely still going to put a significant asking price on Gallen, hoping that rival teams could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate.  The Diamondbacks’ trade efforts will also naturally be helped by the fact that basically every contender could use a starter, plus Gallen is relatively affordable (around $5.625MM remains on his $13.5MM salary).  A pitcher with Gallen’s history will draw interest even if his most recent results haven’t been good.  From the perspective of trade suitors, however, those 2025 numbers will surely loom large, as clubs will have to gauge how much they’re willing to offer for a rental pitcher who isn’t in top form.

The Blue Jays have leaned hard on Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt as the top three starters in their rotation this season, as Max Scherzer’s injuries and Bowden Francis’ struggles left Toronto operating with what felt like a three-man rotation for a big chunk of the first half.  Scherzer has since returned to the mound (though is still managing thumb discomfort) and minor league signing Eric Lauer has pitched really well since joining the rotation in May, plus Alek Manoah has started a rehab assignment and is expected to be back at some point late in the second half in his return from UCL surgery.

With this much uncertainty, another solid starter would go a long way towards helping the Jays’ chances of keeping their lead in the AL East, or at least making the postseason bracket.  Gallen figures to be one of many names linked to the Blue Jays as GM Ross Atkins evaluates what promises to be a typically busy trade market for pitching.

Diamondbacks Notes: Beeks, Graveman, Gallen, Kelly, Miller

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Prior to yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels, the Diamondbacks placed left-hander Jalen Beeks on the 15-day injured list due to lower back inflammation, with a retroactive placement date of July 8.  Right-hander Kendall Graveman was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move.

It doesn’t appear as Beeks’ injury is overly serious, as manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that the hope is that Beeks will miss just the minimum 15 days, with the retroactive time and the All-Star break factoring into that number.  This means Beeks should be able to return in plenty of time before the July 31st trade deadline, which is perhaps noteworthy if the 46-49 Diamondbacks end up being sellers.

Beeks is just a couple of days removed from his 32nd birthday, and he has a 4.39 ERA, 51.8% grounder rate, 22.9% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate over 41 relief innings this season.  While the K% and BB% numbers aren’t anything special, Statcast has liked Beeks’ work on the whole, and his ability to induce soft contact and keep the ball on the ground have helped the southpaw deliver some respectable numbers.  Beeks’ numbers are somewhat inflated by two nightmarish outings against in the Marlins in late June, which accounted for eight of the 20 earned runs he has allowed all year.

Should Arizona indeed decide to sell, Beeks is a natural trade chip as an impending free agent, and plenty of clubs should have interest in an inexpensive veteran lefty.  The D’Backs signed Beeks to a one-year, $1.25MM deal just before Opening Day, after Beeks was released at the end of spring camp from a previous minor league deal with the Astros.

An IL stint this relatively close to the deadline could throw a wrench into Beeks’ trade candidacy, as he has now joined the long list of Diamondbacks pitchers sidelined by injuries.  Graveman has been on the IL twice this season, first due to a lumbar strain and then this latest placement due to a hip impingement that cost him a little over a month of action.  These two IL stints have limited Graveman to just 10 appearances and 9 1/3 innings this season.  Graveman’s ERA is 8.68, though one six-run implosion against the Reds on June 7 is largely responsible for Graveman’s ungainly bottom-line statistics.

The D’Backs have faced such a swath of pitching injuries that it may impact their deadline plans as either buyers or sellers.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both impending free agents and oft-cited trade candidates, yet according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks “are unlikely” to move both starters at the deadline for the simple reason that the club still needs to fill innings for the remainder of the year.  The Snakes have already seen their starter depth depleted by Tommy John surgeries to Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Walston, while Tommy Henry underwent an internal brace procedure in late June.  A shoulder strain has also sidelined Cristian Mena until at least the second week of August, as per his timeline on the 60-day IL.

Gallen is in the last few months of his final arbitration-eligible season, while Kelly is in the last year of what has now become a three-year, $24MM contract when Arizona made the easy call to exercise its $7MM club option on the right-hander last November.  Kelly has been the significantly better of the two pitchers this season with 2.0 fWAR to Gallen’s 0.1 fWAR, though Gallen is perceived to have the higher upside as a former front-of-the-rotation type.  The Diamondbacks figure to receive plenty of offers for both pitchers prior to July 31, so the decision of who stays and who goes will just come down to which offer the Snakes prefer.

In another injury update, Lovullo said Shelby Miller will be visiting Dr. Keith Meister to get a second opinion about the forearm strain that sent Miller to the 15-day IL earlier this week.  Lovullo said that surgery may well be an option for the reliever, but Miller is also still considering treatments that would allow him to return to action at some point in 2025.

At the very least, it certainly doesn’t seem like Miller will be able to return before the deadline, which reduces or (more realistically) wipes out his trade value.  This injury has cast a pall over what had been an outstanding season for Miller, a minor league signing who has delivered a 1.98 ERA over 36 1/3 bullpen innings for Arizona.

D-Backs GM Mike Hazen Talks Trade Deadline

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The Diamondbacks dropped this afternoon’s series finale against the White Sox, falling to 41-39. They’re 3.5 games back with four teams in front of them in a crowded NL Wild Card picture. As Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week’s MLBTR podcast, Arizona is one of the most interesting bubble teams five weeks from the deadline. They’re still in the race but have been battered by injuries, leaving them shorthanded as they enter a pivotal stretch of the season.

General manager Mike Hazen spoke with ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Tuesday and said he has started to receive calls from opposing clubs gauging their interest in selling. Hazen jokingly likened the rival executives to sharks circling but noted that the D-Backs aren’t interested in dealing away talent at this point.

“We have good players, so I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able to play good baseball and stay in this and then get those guys back and maybe be able to add on at the deadline,” the GM said, referencing the recent injured list placements to right fielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno. Arizona has also recently lost Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, but none of them will be back this season. Hazen acknowledged there may eventually be “a critical mass of injuries” that forces them to reconsider but added he “still (thinks they) have every opportunity to be competitive.”

It’s what should be expected from a bubble team’s GM this far out. It’d be far more surprising if the D-Backs were already open for business. They’ll know more in a month about their place in the standings and on the statuses of Carroll (wrist fracture) and Moreno (broken index finger). Hazen conceded, however, that playoff spots will be tough to come by in a National League that has ten teams that are above .500 at the moment.

If they’re still within a few games of a playoff spot in July, they’ll be motivated to buy. The D-Backs narrowly missed the postseason a year ago. Ownership subsequently approved a franchise-record payroll to support an excellent lineup. Their pitching plans have largely been decimated by injuries and/or underperformance from their free agent acquisitions. That has kept them around .500 despite an offense that trails only the Dodgers and Cubs in runs — one year after they led MLB in scoring.

The ideal outcome is that the team plays well enough that the front office can add to the pitching staff, especially in the bullpen. If things go in the opposite direction over the next month, they’d have no shortage of veteran players to shop. Josh Naylor, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eugenio Suárez, Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks are all impending free agents. Gallen seems unlikely to re-sign, and it’s tough to see the Diamondbacks retaining both Naylor and Suárez while again blocking Jordan Lawlar’s path to infield at-bats. The D-Backs could consider a qualifying offer for any of the first four players, though it’s unlikely they’d QO all four since there’d be an argument for each of them to accept.

Naylor and Suárez have been middle-of-the-order run producers and would be among the top rental bats if the D-Backs made them available. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that the Yankees have shown some early interest in Suárez with a likely infield need. Acquiring a third baseman would free them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base and move DJ LeMahieu to a utility role. Suárez is currently day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on Monday. He sat out the final two games of the Chicago series.

Gallen has had a poor season but has the pedigree to attract attention. The 36-year-old Kelly is churning out another low-3.00s ERA season while striking out a quarter of opponents. Miller, who is playing for barely more than the league minimum after signing an offseason minor league contract, would be a top bullpen target. He’s carrying a sub-2.00 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate while pitching his way into the ninth inning. Beeks has pitched well in a setup capacity and would be a target for teams seeking left-handed relief.

The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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