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Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach

By Anthony Franco | July 22, 2024 at 3:35pm CDT

The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.

Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.

The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.

Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.

Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.

Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.

While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.

Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.

Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.

If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.

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Tampa Bay Rays Isaac Paredes Jason Adam Pete Fairbanks Randy Arozarena Yandy Diaz Zach Eflin Zack Littell

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View Comments (27)
Post a Comment

27 Comments

  1. Six Shooter

    11 months ago

    Paredes to Astros
    Eflin to LAD

    1
    Reply
    • Six Shooter

      11 months ago

      Rosario to the Braves
      Diaz to Seattle

      1
      Reply
      • sad tormented neglected mariners fan

        11 months ago

        Lowe to yankees
        Littell to Milwaukee

        Reply
        • Six Shooter

          11 months ago

          Those make a lot of sense.

          Reply
        • lesterdnightfly

          11 months ago

          Tinker to Evers to Chance

          4
          Reply
        • Karensjer

          11 months ago

          If the Rays trade to the evil Bankee$ they aren’t getting anything back less than Dominguez and Jones.

          Reply
        • mp2891

          11 months ago

          Rays would never ever ever trade a player like Lowe to the Yankees. Never ever ever. Rays hate the Yankees and I can’t remember them even trading a scrub to the Yankees. They do 3 team trades only with NYY, with the Rays player going to the 3rd team and the Rays acquiring a player from NY (e.g., Rortvedt recently).

          1
          Reply
        • mp2891

          11 months ago

          Karen – Rays won’t want Jones. He is striking out about 40% of the time in the minors, which makes him a AAAA player. He’s only a “top prospect” because of the logo on his jersey. If he played for any other team he wouldn’t be viewed the same. Rays won’t want him.

          1
          Reply
    • cheapseater

      11 months ago

      Eflin to the Dodgers would be kind of hysterical. Not quite full circle, but close!

      1
      Reply
    • mp2891

      11 months ago

      Don’t think the Astros have the Farm to trade for Paredes.

      1
      Reply
  2. Simm

    11 months ago

    I think we are going to go from a sellers market to a buyers market in the next week.

    More and more teams are starting to be in the not buyers category. Soon more will be in the selling category.

    Buyers are just waiting the market out before they make deals.

    2
    Reply
    • mp2891

      11 months ago

      Depends on the players. Take Detroit, Sure, they’ll flip Flaherty for a nice return, but anyone with any knowledge of trade values knows that Skubal ain’t going anywhere. He’d empty out the buying team’s Farm, and that’s just not happening. Same goes for the Rays’ Paredes, even with him costing a lot less than Skubal. So the supply of available players isn’t as big as media reports and click-bait articles would have you believe. There will still be overpays for the best pitchers. Position players rarely garner overpays at the Deadline.

      Reply
  3. Blackpink in the area

    11 months ago

    The Rays I believe want to compete in 2025. But they always have budget concerns. I think Efflin and Arozarena get dealt for those reasons. I would be very surprised if guys like Adam or Paredes were traded.

    1
    Reply
  4. PhilliesFan91

    11 months ago

    Arozarena to Philly

    Reply
    • mp2891

      11 months ago

      I’m not a fan of Philly’s Farm, so I hope that’s not his destination.

      Reply
  5. nosake

    11 months ago

    Arozarena will be a great draw wherever he lands. Exciting guy to watch – especially when he steals home.

    3
    Reply
    • ChuckyNJ

      11 months ago

      Though the balanced schedule means Arozarena could end up on a ballclub that’ll give him another chance to be a Yankee-killer.
      [Rays came out of the break at .500 and split the 4-game wraparound series in The Bronx, which is why they’re back to .500.]

      Reply
    • cheapseater

      11 months ago

      He was painful to watch for the first two months of this season, though.

      1
      Reply
  6. YankeesBleacherCreature

    11 months ago

    The deadline approach is Rays being the Rays.

    1
    Reply
  7. Old York

    11 months ago

    Nothing new. Rays will win the trades in the end.

    I think I summed it up well for everyone.

    3
    Reply
  8. BPax

    11 months ago

    And what kind of dressing would you like on your salad?
    I’ll have the Rortvedt.
    Did you mean Roquefort?
    I don’t know. Maybe?

    1
    Reply
    • lesterdnightfly

      11 months ago

      As soon as I can see through my flowing tears of uncontrollable mirth, I’m sending you my doctor bills to repair all my side-splitting and knee-slapping damages caused by that, er, “joke”.

      /s

      1
      Reply
      • Ignorant Son-of-a-b

        11 months ago

        Are you trying to explain to us that somebody else’s post was actually a joke??

        Reply
        • lesterdnightfly

          11 months ago

          Note
          the
          quotes.

          2
          Reply
  9. holecamels35

    11 months ago

    Magic somewhat worn out this season though it’s hard to imagine every good hitter falling off a cliff and pitchers getting injured. They did all they could but it won’t be enough.

    Reply
    • mp2891

      11 months ago

      Rays started the year with no Franco, McClanahan, Rasmussen, Baz, Springs or Raley (who was traded for a stop gap at SS). Rays were always looking at an 80-85 win season. There was never going to be enough magic for this season. They should have traded Aroz or Diaz last offseason when their trade value was higher, but I suspect the stadium discussions this year made them stand pat. Next year will be different with all the pitchers returning from IL young arms like Pep and Bradley stepping up, and the promotions of top prospects like Mead, Caminero and Williams filling in the gaps.

      3
      Reply
  10. CleaverGreene

    11 months ago

    The Rays need to get rid of Walls and Jackson. The amount AB’s they give to .below 50 OPS+ players is ridiculous.

    1
    Reply

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