Marlins Do Not Intend To Trade Sandy Alcantara In Offseason

The Marlins have informed Sandy Alcantara that they will not trade him during the upcoming offseason, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). Mish writes that the Fish are hopeful that the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will be ready to take the ball for them on Opening Day.

Alcantara missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. That was the first major blow in what has turned out to be a very difficult 12 months at loanDepot Park. Eury Pérez went down with a Tommy John procedure of his own a week into the ’24 season. The Marlins got 12 inconsistent starts out of Jesús Luzardo; his season is over due to a stress reaction in his back. A finger injury has interrupted what might have been a step forward from Ryan Weathers. Lefty Braxton Garrett is currently down with a flexor strain and has made all of seven starts. Edward Cabrera lost a couple months in the first half.

A rotation with a fully healthy Alcantara, Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett and Weathers would probably be a top 10 group in MLB. The Marlins have instead lost them all for significant chunks of the season. Between that brutal stretch of starting pitching injuries and one of the worst lineups in the majors, the Marlins have had a nightmare of a year. They started 0-9, never got back to .500, and are fully amidst a rebuild. Miami shipped out Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz and a few others as part of a roster overhaul. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has begun to reshape the front office, and it’s widely believed that manager Skip Schumaker and the organization could part ways at season’s end.

That upheaval means there aren’t many players whom the Marlins would probably steadfastly refuse to discuss in trade talks. That said, it never seemed especially likely they’d deal Alcantara next winter. He’s rehabbing a major arm procedure that at least clouds his trade value. While there’d surely still be interest if the Marlins shopped him, other teams would presumably want to price in some kind of discount in case Alcantara doesn’t regain his pre-surgery form.

There’s little reason for the Marlins to entertain diminished trade offers. Miami signed Alcantara to a $56MM extension the year before his Cy Young campaign. He’s under contract for another two seasons and the team holds an option for 2027. Alcantara is making $9MM this year. His salaries will jump to $17MM annually for the next two seasons; the option is valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout. (He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if the Marlins trade him at any point.) From here forward, it’s a two-year, $36MM guarantee that comes with a third-year club option.

Despite the surgery, that’s good value for a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber. Bounceback starters like Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino signed for between $13MM and $16MM in free agency last offseason. They all inked one-year deals, but that allowed them all to retest free agency in search of a much bigger contract if they returned to form. Alcantara is coming from a higher baseline than that trio of pitchers. If he looks anything like his old self, the final guaranteed season and the club option would be well below market value.

It’s a relatively costly commitment by Miami’s standards, but the Marlins have little else on the books next year. They owe the already released Avisaíl García $17MM between his $12MM salary and a $5MM buyout on his 2026 option. They’re responsible for $10MM annually to the Yankees between 2026-28 on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. Minor league reliever Woo-Suk Go, who is owed $2.75MM next season between his salary and a ’26 option buyout, is the only other player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season.

Luzardo, Jesús Sánchez and Garrett headline what’ll be a relatively light arbitration class. The Fish aren’t likely to do much in free agency after spending all of $5MM last winter on a one-year deal for Tim Anderson. Even with Alcantara’s salary rising by $8MM, they could open next season with a lower player payroll than their approximate $92MM mark this year (calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

If Alcantara performs well in the first half, he could be one of the most in-demand players at next summer’s deadline. Even if all their starters come back healthy, Miami will be hard-pressed to compete barring a major lineup overhaul. The Marlins still may not want to move Alcanatara with the amount of time remaining on his deal, but that’d be a more interesting question for the front office than it would to sell low on him over the offseason.