It was a relatively quiet trade deadline in Cincinnati, with the Reds dealing away veteran righties Frankie Montas and Lucas Sims while acquiring Jakob Junis (in the Montas deal), young outfielder Joey Wiemer (also for Montas), veteran first baseman Ty France (for minor league catcher Andruw Salcedo) and pitching prospect Ovis Portes (for Sims). President of baseball ops Nick Krall and his staff generally dealt from the fringes of a contending roster and brought in some complementary veterans. Via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Krall said after the deadline that he didn’t want to sell “just to put younger players on the roster” and cited the team’s run differential and looming returns (e.g. Matt McLain, Emilio Pagan) as reasons to be optimistic of a run down the stretch.
That said, it seems Krall & Co. took at least one more substantial buy-side swing. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Reds, Mets and Orioles all made offers that the Marlins liked in exchange for left-hander Trevor Rogers. The Mets’ interest in Rogers was already known, and the Orioles of course acquired the lefty in exchange for what many considered a surprisingly strong package of second baseman Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers. Jackson and Mish report that the Reds offered “one of their top pitching prospects” to the Marlins, but Baltimore ultimately topped that offer by agreeing to part with a pair of MLB-ready position players. The Mets also made a formal offer, per the report.
The level of interest in Rogers is reflective of the lack of pitching that was available on this summer’s market. Though the 26-year-old southpaw finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021, he’s since dealt with shoulder and biceps injuries that have greatly reduced his arsenal and his effectiveness. Rogers’ fastball has dropped about two miles per hour since that rookie showing, while his slider has flattened out and misses far fewer bats than it did in ’21.
After finishing the ’21 season with a 2.64 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 133 innings, Rogers has combined for a 5.02 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate in 234 2/3 innings. He was sitting on a 4.53 ERA with a career-low 18% strikeout rate at the time of the trade and has since been tagged for five runs through 4 1/3 innings in his lone Orioles start.
Cincinnati’s reported interest in Rogers comes at a time when in-house arms like Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson are facing notable injury concerns. The former has been out since early July with an elbow strain. The latter hasn’t pitched in the big leagues this season and only has 10 2/3 minor league innings on the year. He last pitched on June 2 and has been down since due to a shoulder strain. Both are on the 60-day injured list.
The Reds aren’t lacking when it comes to high-end pitching prospects — particularly not after selecting Wake Forest righty Chase Burns with the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft. Burns isn’t eligible to be traded until the offseason, and fellow top prospect Rhett Lowder (last year’s first-round pick and a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport) surely was off limits. Prospects Connor Phillips, Lyon Richardson and Chase Petty have all struggled to varying extents in the upper minors this season, but all are still generally well-regarded even if their respective values are down from peak levels. Righty Julian Aguiar has notably upped his stock this season as well and likely isn’t too far from a big league look.
Rogers is controlled by the Orioles for another two seasons, so this isn’t a case where their deadline interest could portend offseason free-agent interest (although Cincinnati could certainly take a run at prying Rogers from the O’s this winter if the interest remains strong and/or the Orioles sour on the lefty). But it’s still a relevant footnote to keep in mind, both when Rogers is next available via trade/free agency and because it could foreshadow a Reds pursuit of some controllable arms this offseason.
Right-hander Hunter Greene and lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott are all generally locked into long-term rotation spots. Twenty-six-year-old righty Carson Spiers is attempting to solidify his own rotation status down the stretch. Even with a decent stock of upper-level arms, the Reds could look to deepen that group via the trade or free-agent markets this winter.
Had to have been Lowder. None of the other’s mentioned have any value at this point
Probably someone in the Petty range-doubt they would have offered Lowder.
Agreed. Lowder is a Top 25 prospect. It’d take a lot more than Trevor Rogers.
I’d be willing to bet that it was Lyon Richardson.
no way it was Lowder…they are extremely high on him.
no way it was Lowder…if it was I’m glad the Marlins passed
Stowers had no place to play and might fit into a quad A type player but losing Norby for a mid back of the rotation guys sucks. Rogers hasn’t looked good in a while and it was the Os worst trade.
I thought it was a heavy price to pay as well, especially for an arm they may not “want” to use in the Postseason. Perhaps that’s all indicative of just how much of a Seller’s Market that it was though!
Mets acquisition of Blackburn looking even better now.
With those prospects, BAL has a bevy of trade options (word of the day: bevy). Why they decided to take a chance of fixing Rogers with his 2.5 years of cheap control is beyond me.
O’s didn’t fix their biggest problem: middle relief & closer. Arguably their biggest acquisitions are three pitchers the Phil’s no longer wanted – Seranthony, Soto & Kimbrel.
Yeah, I didn’t want to disparage Kimbrel, but were they sleeping watching what he did (or didn’t do) in the postseason in PHI? And there’s a high likelihood he’s going to be in a similar situation in BAL. They could have beaten SD’s price for RPs. Still surprised WSH hung onto their closer. I wouldn’t trust Soto to carry my tray. He’s got the control of a 8-year old in the morning at the toilet.
Had to give you a thumbs up just for the last line.
Plethora
Had no idea that ‘bevvies’ could mean multiple alcoholic beverages.
Would you say you have a plethora of sweaters, teddy?
While I think Rogers is overrated, I think Stowers & Norby are also overrated, though with a ton of control.
In parts of three seasons, Stowers has an awful 63/8 K/W with 4 HRs in 172 ABs. And is 26 years old. And that’s projectable from his minor league numbers.
Norby has a 12/0 K/W in very limited ABs, but has two full seasons in AAA. And he has a 104/47 in only 320 ABs, or 195 in his 2nd full season in AAA at age 24.
They have 5 & 6 years of control left, so maybe they can develop, but I’m not seeing a wow factor in either.
Something is up with Stowers that this amateur GM is not seeing. Thought it was obvious they were showcasing him in SP … and thought he performed well; yet no takers.
Because of this, I thought it was a fair trade. That said, Rogers does scare me. Has yet to pitch a full season. Will he be around come mid September?
I think most of Rogers’ price was due to the overall price of starting pitching, and also that he’s left handed, which is always a scarce commodity. In Camden Yards, LHPs should play up. So I understand why Elias was deadset on acquiring one.
Stowers was always the type of prospect you hype, and hope it nets value in a trade elsewhere. Stowers has surface appearance of looking like a power OF bat all-around player, but underneath the hood there’s some blemishes that hint at a mirage. The Marlins’ park might hurt him too.
Norby, not so much. He’s a legit prospect who can be a MLB league average player, with a chance to have above-average years. That’s not nothing. He has stuff to work on, but that’s not nothing. Either way, the Marlins got some good production coming.
Would shock me if Stowers cuts his K’s down enough to be a legitimate big leaguer. He can play all 3 OF slots and maybe if things go right becomes a platoon bat. But that’s a Maybe.
Norby can’t field and has K issues. He’s gotten a lot of prospect love from most people. Fangraphs doesn’t believe in him at all though slapping a 40 FV on him. (Which I think is way low but if he doesn’t hit—there is no value there.)
Neither will be a star. If norby becomes a solid regular that’s a great get for MIA though. We’ll need to fix Rogers pretty significantly to win this deal.
Krall & Co. took at least one more substantial buy-side swing.
======================
Rogers is not without potential, but I’d hardly call him a “substantial … swing”. His ERA/FIP is 5.02/4.41, with an ERA+ of 85, and a K/W of 2.13., And a bWAR of 0.9.
He definitely showed flashes in 2021, but that’s three years ago.
Look at his numbers from his past couple of months though…
But again, he hasn’t been the same since the tragedy during his rookie year. He never had great command, so now he can’t get away with those same mistakes…but he has been better with his pitchability the last couple of months, even though he isn’t nearly the same pitcher he was
If he were to regain some of his lost stuff as well, he could find a little more towards what he previously was
I’m not seeing anything. Cherry-picking what looks like a decent stretch, from 6/9-8/1, he has an ERA of 3.76 but a FIP of 4.46 with a 41/22 K/W in 52.2 IPs. All kind of meh.
Still 2.5 years of a backend type SP, in that range, though I’m not advocating for him…I didn’t advocate for him when he was drafted and in the minor leagues, but I looked wrong when he seemingly figured it out, before the tragedy a few years ago; then the command issues started to come back out, and he couldn’t get away with stuff as often…
Then his stuff started falling off, and then now he’s dipped below 90 a few times.
I think he still has most of that lost velocity still in there, but he has struggled with mechanics the last couple of years, with injuries also somewhat around those issues (like his lat problem). If someone can help him find some of that back, I think he’ll creep more towards the middle of a rotation again
I’m sorry, what tragedy are you referring to ??
When his grandmother and his mother died of covid and the rest is unclear/I can’t 100% remember, but he wasn’t ever the same after that
Time to bring back Votto? They could probably reacquire him for De La Cruz alone.
The disrespect shown to Joey is disgusting. They simply cast him aside, rather than give Joey a well deserved farewell tour. He only saved the franchise as well as the city of Cincinatti while also proving himself as a top 15 all time MLB player. No big deal.
Silly-when old guys want to keep going that’s fine, but teams have to remove emotion. If it was such an injustice, he’d not only be playing in mlb, but playing well. There was a lot of dead money on the back end of the deal with his advanced age.
Joey had what should have been his “farewell tour” in 2023, the last year of his extremely generous contract. He wanted to play another year, which is fine, but the Reds felt they needed to move on, which is also fine. Votto seems entirely cool with the Reds’ decision, so why make an issue out of it where none exists? As a Reds’ fan of more than 60 years I love Votto, but he is not close to being a top 15 all time MLB player, and I’m pretty sure he didn’t “save” either the Reds or Cincinnati. Enhanced, certainly.
12981 is the master of hyperbole
Top 15? That is a wild assertion. And they showed him no disrespect at all. They paid him handsomely and treated him with respect while he played with them. Are they required to leave 1b to him forever?
The Reds have a history of showing their veteran players the door with little fanfare, outside of Johnny Bench who retired early due to the rigors of catching all those games on astroturf. Votto was no exception.
Hindsight is always 20/20 and due to injury he would not have helped them on the field. He would not have played full time even if he was.
But how much better would a guy like De La Cruz be with Votto to talk to? Would he still lead the league in strikeouts? Does a guy like Benson miss bouncing things off him, or Marte? We will never know.
I just remember Jesse Winker being side by aide with Votto during his Reds career a lot and what a much better hitter he was then. Not so much since.
A lot of times stats don’t tell the full story of a guy’s worth to a ballclub.
Stop using multiple names to antagonize people. Votto was old and couldn’t hit anything anymore. Players get old and production falls off. Wave bye-bye to Votto and bring him back as a special assistant or coach, but as a player he’s done.
I think you meant to say “top 15 all time Red player” because Votto isn’t anywhere near top 15
It is always woulda, shoulda, coulda with this Reds management, and excuses after the fact to try to save face. The fact that so many of the altar worshippers buy it would be amusing if it wasn’t disgusting how readily they accept the big middle finger they get from this bunch annually.
“Let’s not and say we tried.”
With the trade deadline past, we’re all stuck grinding through wonderful little tidbits like this to catch our fix.
Cute story, Cincinnati. the little team who almost could but ultimately didn’t make a “big” trade. adorable
It seems to have “caught your fix”. To belittle it says more about you than about the story.
Yeah it used to be a lot of action, now, not so much.
A likeable offer for an ERA over 4.50. gee whiz! take what i can get!
“It is wiser to stay silent and perhaps be regarded as a fool,
than to speak and have it confirmed.”
probably apply that quote to yourself writing that quote. wtf is your problem
Sounds like it would have been another lateral move. Get rid of Montas, bring Rogers? Both had history of shoulder issues
Why give up anything for a batting practice arm? Rogers sucks in a pitchers park he won’t be any better in Cincy’s bandbox
I don’t get what teams see in him? He’s not very good, one fluke rookie year he was never able to replicate. Not durable and doesn’t strike out a ton. Decent 4-5 starter, that’s all.
Really like the talent in Cincinnati starting rotation and depth. When everyone is healthy; Reds will have a “Mariners-esque” starting five. Good times to come. Could be best starting rotation in the NL in 2025.
Well I wish the Reds would’ve gotten him. Ironically of the players the Orioles traded Stowers and Norby were the best ones and of the players they got back Rogers has been the worst so far. I hope it pans out but that trade will never sit right with me.
The Reds always leak stories about how they were in on this player or that player. Just like this past offseason, when the “just missed” signing Sonny Gray. In this case however, I am glad they passed.
Sonny Gray wanted to pitch closer to home
That’s the problem in a nutshell. Instead of a top of the line guy, they go for the “if it’s Tuesday and the sun don’t shine, and they sell tacos, this guy might be pretty good” guy.