Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this evening that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.
The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.
There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.
The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto — the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50MM remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a paycut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5MM salary on an annual basis over four or five years.
If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.
How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out?
mrkinsm
He’ll opt out next winter – Nov 2025.
FSF
Doubt it. Only because I don’t see him being a premier player ever again.
YankeesBleacherCreature
He doesn’t need to be one and will easily top in free agency the remaining on his Cubs deal.
Alan53
Definitely will opt out–and let’s hope the Cubs don’t let him stall their off-season the way they did last year. They should bid him goodbye and wish him good luck.
rememberthecoop
Yes, but not his AAV. Nobody is going to give Belli $27.5 per year unless his power rebounds. But in his MVP season, he knew what pitches were coming, so I’m sure that helped him have such a monster year.
mrkinsm
@FSF, what do you doubt? If he stays for 2 years he gets paid 52.5M$ over those 2 years. If he only stays 1 more year and opts out he gets paid 32.5M$ including the final buyout. If he leaves now he only gets 7.5M$ in buyouts. If he wants to maximize his worth and believes he’ll stay healthy next year then he should stay 1 more season and then opt out.
FSF
I’m saying there may very well be doubt that he even gets a $20M contract after next year total and a lot of doubt that he gets that kind of AAV (certainly beyond a couple of years). Now if he rebounds, that changes things in his favor but after this year’s showing, last year being nothing spectacular by any means, his reputation will not be one of being a reliable star level player, let alone the superstar expectations that he had for so long that never manifested with any length.
mrkinsm
115 OPS+ at age 29 still equates to a lot of money as a FA. I don’t think he’ll have any problem getting a 1 year 20M$ deal 12 months from now, even if he produces like he did this year. 20M$ buys a lot less than it once did.
FSF
I agree if he produces a replicate of this season next year that $20M deal at 1 year would be reasonable. I just have doubts that he can maintain this level and he’s already got that deal no matter how he plays. I don’t see any team giving him $50M+ for even 4+ years for doing this again.
16
Cubs and Belli fan here. He hasn’t had a healthy season the past 4 years, banking on one now is a pipe dream. For both Belli and Cubs sake he should opt out. He’s still a well above average CF that can play all OF spots and 1B at GG level with a 115 OPS+ and ~126 OPS+ across past 2 years. That’s very valuable in FA.
rememberthecoop
The numbers and my eyes do not support your statement that he’s a “well above average” centerfielder. He is at best average in center now. But even that is good because it means he is versatile – you can play him in the outfield or first base.
jade 2
Cubs fan here and I agree. Savant only has him at 48% in filed value this season… So,he’s at best, slightly above average in CF and as a tall lanky guy with injury trouble that will only continue to decline. He’s no longer a full time CF. He’ll probably be the RF going forward if he stays with the Cubs. An IF he does sign a long term deal with a team for ages 30+ he’d most likely be more 1B than COF.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Why? He didn’t prove anything this season. He’s a good player when healthy but nothing special.
Thank god the Dodgers never gave him a big extension.
outinleftfield
Bob Nightengale is saying he won’t, so he absolutely will.
Ezpkns34
Still remember the MLBTR prediction of him landing a quarter billion dollar deal last offseason so I hope he opts out so we can get another good laugh in the FA predictions
FSF
Sadly I think it was like $280-288M??? This site is definitely on the Boras payroll.
Alan53
His ego will make him opt out.And Boras’s.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I thought belly (at least) was considered an elite defender, I guess it was just fox pregame trying to hype the fans up
rememberthecoop
He is average in the outfield, even in right field Drasco. You know, as I used to remind my readers, just because you’re a Cubs fan doesn’t mean you have to drink thr kool-aid. He may have once been above average, but not anymore. Still, he’s a good player and a versatile defender and an important left-handed bat in that Cubs lineup. If they don’t have him next season, they’d better get another bat. Hell, they’d better improve that offense no matter what.
leftcoaster
He needs to go to free up a spot for Caissie and Alcantara.
mrkinsm
Not that I’m defending the Cubbies, I’m sadly a Reds fan, but Bellinger isn’t the reason they’re going to miss the playoffs. Their 5th starting spot posted a 6 ERA every 5th day, they got no production from 3B, and they had a mediocre bullpen. Losing Bellinger’s production won’t be easy to replace if he leaves, even if it shaves some $ off the bottom line.
rememberthecoop
They need a closer. Sorry, I know analytic baseball people like Hoyer don’t think so, but I believe in having a solid closer as opposed to a bullpen by committee approach. They blew something like 17 games in the first half of the season alone. Yet you never hear Hoyer talk about the bullpen, except to say that the weak offense put too much pressure on them. He just won’t ever take accountability.
rondon
Actually, he did acknowledge that the bullpen down the stretch last season was their big weakness- Which makes the fact that he didn’t address the problem this year even more egregious.
beersy
He’d be a fool to give up a guaranteed $50M.
Don’t let Boras talk you into “waiting out the market” Cody.
mlb fan
“Jason Werth will redefine how outfielders are now being viewed” – Scott Boras.
bigjonliljon
He will get something in the 4year $100-110M deal if he opts out. He will get less average per year but a larger guarantee in total. Can’t see him not opting out.
sjwil1
I see more like a 3/65 if he opted out.
YankeesBleacherCreature
The Cubs would be ecstatic to add an extra year for $13.5MM as he’s owed $52.5MM over the next two. That’s not even close.
sjwil1
Cubs wouldn’t add another year of here opted out, not a good take
mlb fan
“I see more like a 3/65 if”…I believe you’re on point. It wouldn’t surprise me if Belli got the same $18M/yr AAV that Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger originally got from the S.F Giants in recent yrs.
If I’m a OF/1B needy team, I’d offer that times 3 years for a $54M total guarantee. I actually think Belli opts in because no team is giving him $27M/yr on the open market.
Anthony maresca
Lmfao!!! I promise you he is not getting anywhere close to that. Bellinger will get around 5/85-90 deal if he opts out so he be wise to stay in Chicago and play out the remaining 2/52 and pray he has enough in the tank that maybe he gets another 3/45-50 before he retires. He is NOT a $20 million avv player anymore and not getting that from any team!
YankeesBleacherCreature
@Anthony maresca Nick Castellanos got 5/100 from the Phillies three years ago. Bellinger is a superior player to him at a younger age. I think you’re misjudging the market quite a bit.
Ezpkns34
Bellinger’s last 5 seasons of fWAR totals 8.7, over Half of which came in just 2023 alone. Castellanos’ last 5 seasons of fWAR before signing with Philly were 10.2
If you’re suggesting paying players based on what they did 6-8 years ago, then that’s a pretty bold stance
Addendum: If you look closer to metrics, Bellinger’s 2023 season was very flukish in itself as well with xBA & wxOBA both being 40 points lower and xSLG 90 points lower than what he posted in that season
Butter Biscuits
I think the giants or mariners would be happy to trade for him
LordD99
Take the $27M for next year and opt out then. He’ll likely end up making more total money that way.
BaseballGuy1
Please… give the Cubs a real Christmas present!!!! Bellinger, opt out! The Cubs have so many better ways to spend the money you are wasting on the roster. Terrible contract the Cubs gave Bellinger…. opt-outs after each year, zero leverage to trade as the acquiring team is just renting him. Knew when he was signed, he would not may a significant amount of games in CF as he simply is not an everyday CF quality guy. Just a 1B an DH guy, plus literally guaranteed to spend way too much time on the IL. Please, opt out!
sjwil1
by no means was it a terrible contract, still might be a very good deal for the Cubs if he stays and Cubs win. if he stays and doesn’t do well, it is a very short deal anyway.
rememberthecoop
Right – it was definitely not a “terrible” contract. Dansby Swanson was a terrible contract!
Niekro floater
Boras is probably whispering same thing he did last off-season to his clients, “the possibility of hundreds n hundreds of millions of dollars awaits u.”
OhioDodger
Cody should wait until next year to opt out. The 2026 outfield free agent class looks weak. This year it is much stronger.
JoeBrady
I think he stays one more year. If the market on him is $100M/5, and he gets $32.5M for staying, then he only risks $67.5/4, and even $20M of that $67.M is guaranteed by the Cubs.
He has little downside to staying.
Dogbone
I’m not sure which way Belli will decide. Either way, I wish him the best.
But in an ideal world, he would stay one more year. PCAs presence gives the Cubs flexibility – not to even mention hope – that by the end of 2025 the Cubs could be well set with LH hitters. Caissie and Ballesteros should be contributing by this time next year. Along with Busch and Happ.
And although Paredes numbers can certainly improve, to me Paredes provides a reliable presence in the batting order.
rememberthecoop
Really?;You don’t know? Man, if you hadn’t told us that, we’d have come straight to you for that inside information. What a shocker that you, as a Cubs fan, wouldn’t know. I’m reeling from the news! Meanwhile, I don’t think we can say for sure that PCA can hit enough to play every day. I know he’s improved, which is great, but the jury is still out on him. I’m rooting strongly for the kid – what a terrific defender and his speed is a game-changer – but no way we can count on his offense just yet.
Dogbone
LOL, your readership at the Peotone Gazette really misses your insight coop. You sound pretty upset.
Slider_withcheese
100% he opts out and 100% they use that money along with Hendricks expiring contract and Smyly gone, they sign Soto.
rememberthecoop
I will bet you $100 right now that the Cubs do not sign Soto. You’ll hear the usual bs that they’re in the hunt for him, but again, no way Hoyer (or Ricketts) signs a 600MM deal. No fricken way!
Shrutefarm
If he doesn’t opt out, I could easily see the Cubs trading him. Maybe he sees that happening too and opt out with the hopes of going somewhere he wants to be instead of traded somewhere he might not necessarily want to go.
stan lee the manly
He would be an idiot to opt out, he’s not getting paid $20 mil next year with those pedestrian numbers.
brucenewton
It’ll be a gamble to opt out. The Yankees will be desperate for a LF/CF and also a 1B. That might be his only fit if he’s looking for a bigger guarantee. Soto will hold up his market until deep into the offseason.
brucenewton
*RF/CF
Brick House Coffee Tables Inc
He will opt out. He can easily get 4/88 with an opt-out after 2. That’s $38M more in guaranteed money.
OhioDodger
He will have to smoke a joint and come to a decision.
seth3120
Where’s he going? He’s going nowhere. Nowhere. He didn’t get paid a mega deal last year and he hit significantly less hrs. Teams pay for doubles and homers. If he opts in and hits the bombs he did last year he looks a lot more consistent then perhaps he tests the market then. Hes down from last year I don’t see how that makes him more valuable
Anthony maresca
I can see Yankees offering Bellinger 5/100 to play 1B and occasional OF when needed permitting Soto does not return. They need a good defensive 1B, lefty who hits for contact and if healthy 25 Hrs in Yankee stadium a given. Yankees will be happy with .265/25/90+ hitting in 2 hole replacing Soto who I think is not returning.
Fred K. Burke
I going to walk the tightrope and go 50/50 if Belli opts out. I was surprised Marcus Stroman opted out of his contract with the Cubs last season. Belli has a lot more money on the table with the Cubs than Stroman. 50 million currently for Belli could be too much to walk away from and start over.
Bucket Number Six
Interestingly, if Stroman didn’t opt out, the Cubs probably wouldn’t have re-signed Bellinger.
Fred K. Burke
You nailed it!
baseballpurist
Suzuki needs to be the designated hitter. He’s a liability in the outfield.
BaseballGuy1
Bellinger is not even an average CF. He does not want to play CF on a daily basis. Just wants to try and play 1B and DH. The ridiculous statement in the article is “Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.” Bellinger cannot play CF on a daily basis without getting hurt and / or his pedestrian batting numbers falling even lower. The Cubs can only hope for an early Christmas present that Bellinger opts-out of the contract that the Cubs never should have given him.
3 finger split
This is a no brainer for Bellinger and say what you want about Boras but he did a great job of locking in Bellinger for that kind of money and having the opt outs after each season. Nobody is going to pay Bellinger $27.5 million dollars for next year and the Cubs are hoping he does opt out but if I’m Bellinger I stay for $27.5 million reasons and if he has a blow your doors off 2025 then opt out. Someone will pay him more than the $20 million he is signed for in 2026.