The regular season hasn’t even drawn to a close yet, but there’s already ample anticipation regarding what a potential Juan Soto free agency will look like. The 26-year-old superstar will hit the market as the top free agent and one of the most coveted talents in the history of free agency. A bidding war between the Yankees and Mets is already widely expected, and big-money clubs like the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants have also been speculated as potential landing spots. Nary a major free agent goes by without Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at least throwing his hat into the ring. Other clubs will surely be in the mix.
Among the other potential suitors, writes Jorge Castillo of ESPN, could be Soto’s original club. The Nationals “would love a reunion” with Soto, reports Castillo, though it’s not yet clear whether ownership will be willing to offer more than they did when Soto rejected a 15-year, $440MM extension. That decision floored many fans, but it’s proved prudent in the long run. That 15-year term would’ve included Soto’s final two arbitration seasons. He earned a combined $54MM in those two seasons anyhow. Soto need “only” top the remaining $386MM to come out ahead on the gambit, and it would be stunning if he fell short of that mark, given his age, track record and sensational platform season for free agency.
Could that offer still come from the Nationals? It’s impossible to know precisely where the Lerner family (who own the Nationals) lie in terms of their comfort level, but there’s reason to believe they could put forth an even larger offer than last time.
For one, the Nats were in the nascent stages of a rebuild when they made that original offer to Soto. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner had been traded to the Dodgers at the prior season’s deadline. The Nationals weren’t close to competing then but are exponentially closer to doing so now, thanks in no small part to the return they received from trading Soto in the first place. MacKenzie Gore has seized a rotation spot. CJ Abrams has solidified himself as their shortstop, second-half slump notwithstanding. Outfielder James Wood was ranked the top prospect in baseball when he debuted in July. Fellow outfielder Robert Hassell III and left-hander Jarlin Susana are still in the minors.
It also bears emphasizing that the Lerner family was exploring a potential sale of the team at the time. That process began early in 2022. Several potential ownership groups spoke to the current owners about the possibility, but two years later, managing principal owner Mark Lerner (the son of the late Ted Lerner, who passed away in 2023) publicly stated that his family is no longer looking to find a buyer. “We have determined, our family has determined, that we are not going to sell the team,” Lerner told the Washington Post in February.
That shift in long-term planning obviously carries ramifications with regard to how the Lerner family might allocate its resources. While putting forth a $400MM+ offer amid a potential sale process shows a clear willingness to spend, there were also presumably limits as to how much money ownership wanted to put on the long-term books. Any interested buyers would effectively be on the hook for paying out the remainder of that sum, after all — particularly since the offer reportedly did not contain any deferred money (a departure from their prior big-money contracts, which nearly all included deferrals).
Now, more than two years after that extension offer was made, the Nats are closer to contention and have a far cleaner payroll outlook. This is the final season of Patrick Corbin’s six-year contract. The only players guaranteed any money beyond the current year are Stephen Strasburg, whose career is over but who is still signed through 2026, and catcher Keibert Ruiz, whose relatively modest $50MM extension runs through 2030 and comes with a $6.25MM average annual value. Consider that at their peak in 2019, the Nationals finished the season with a hefty $205MM payroll, per Cot’s Contracts. The Nats can absolutely afford to make a competitive offer and build out a team around him and the rest of their emerging core.
On that note, while any team would move pieces around to make room for Soto in its outfield mix, that likely wouldn’t even be necessary for Washington. The Nats currently have Wood, defensive standout Jacob Young and top prospect Dylan Crews in the outfield. Young is an elite defender but carries just a .255/.315/.336 batting line on the season. He could easily be shifted to a fourth outfield role, or he could play center regularly while the trio of Wood, Crews and Soto rotated through the two corner spots and designated hitter. Getting at-bats for all of those names wouldn’t be particularly challenging.
On top of all that, the Nats themselves still know Soto as well as or better than any team in the game. The majority of the team’s key figures were all in place when they originally signed and developed Soto. Mike Rizzo has been the Nats’ president of baseball operations and general manager since being hired back in 2009, when Soto was 11 years old. The Lerner family has owned the Nats since the former Expos moved from Montreal to D.C. in 2006. Davey Martinez managed every game of Soto’s big league career before he was traded to the Padres. There are of course others in the organization, ranging from coaches to scouts to executives, who are holdovers from Soto’s days in D.C.
The broader question is likely one of whether Soto would want to return to a Nationals club that doesn’t have the look and feel of a present-day contender. He’d need to buy into the team’s farm system and the future and upside of players like Wood, Crews, Abrams, Gore, top prospect Brady House and others. His familiarity with Rizzo and particularly Martinez (with whom he’d interact on a daily basis) would certainly be a prominent factor, but Soto has also surely built rapport with key officials in both San Diego and the Bronx as well. Unless the Lerner family absolutely blew every other bidder out of the water, Soto going back to Washington would likely need to be at least somewhat based on nostalgia and fond memories of his original organization.
Still just 25 years old (26 in October), Soto is poised to land the largest contract ever signed by a position player — likely the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value. Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700MM deal is the current benchmark, although given the colossal slate of deferrals on the deal, the contract’s net present value is nowhere close to that total sum; Ohtani’s deal comes with a $46MM luxury hit, and the MLBPA calculated the NPV to be $437.5MM.
Some might wonder whether Soto and agent Scott Boras would consider a similar deal, though Boras’ comments in the aftermath of that Ohtani deal suggest otherwise. Speaking with Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Boras suggested that the deflated NPV of Ohtani’s contract was generally underwhelming for a player of his caliber: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.” Readers can form their own opinions on the merit of that stance, but it seems to be a clear indicator that Boras will be looking to set a more concrete new precedent in terms of present-day value when he takes his own unicorn free agent to the market this winter.
Soto is already a four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner (he’ll win a fifth this season), a World Series champion and a Home Run Derby champion. He’s a lifetime .285/.421/.533 hitter in the majors, and he’s currently enjoying the best 162-game season of his career, on a rate basis. He’s slashed .289/.418/.580 with a career-high 39 home runs while walking in 18% of his plate appearances against just a 16.2% strikeout rate. He’s on track for a fifth straight season walking more often than he’s struck out.
By measure of Statcast, Soto ranks in the 94th percentile or better among all MLB players in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA and walk rate. He’s ultra-durable, averaging 155 games per season from 2021-23, and will match or exceed that pace again in 2024, barring a late injury. Defense has been a knock on him in the past, but Soto has delivered the best defensive grades of his career this season. Statcast credits him with 97th percentile arm strength. He has below-average but not plodding speed, which does limit his range and restrict him to the outfield corners.
The Nats and other clubs know all this quite well, of course. Soto is due for a record-setting contract. Everyone expects as much. The incumbent Yankees figure to be viewed as the favorites, but competition will be steep, and there are plenty of reasons to think Soto’s original club could emerge as a genuine threat in the bidding war to come.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Really? I cannot see this happening
avenger65
Lefty: I think he’ll want to go to a contender, not a still-rebuilding team even though he would accelerate that process if he did return. We might just see just how much money the Dodgers have.
Joe says...
avenger Boras is Soto’s agent. You don’t have Boras as an agent unless you’re trying to get every last penny you can get. He’s going to the highest bidder. My guess is the Mets.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Mets are doing fine without him
Joe says...
True Lefty but I will be shocked if they don’t at least make a serious try for him.
DodgersBro
LOF
“doing fine without him”
White Sox, then?
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Sure …why not
VonPurpleHayes
A huge chunk of the Mets roster is gone after this season. They’ll certainly resign some of those guys, but they will need a lot.
Snuffy
Alonso comes first, then Soto. Need one or both.
Blue Baron
Snuffy: They’re not signing both Alonso and Soto.
raisinsss
Alonso will go to the angels for about 2x of his on field value over the life of the contract and 1.25x any other offer.
gbs42
Soto >>>>> Alonso
raisinsss
Yeah. And it seems he’s gone from great to very good this year.
I hope the Mets don’t budge beyond a reasonable offer. I just think the angels will.
websoulsurfer
If the Mets pick up all player options and Manaea doesn’t opt out, they will be right at $202 million in salaries for CBT purposes. $185 million if Manaea opts out as expected.
They will potentially have holes at 1B, DH, and 2 in the OF as well as 7-9 spots to fill on the pitching staff. While they have a few guys like Sproat, Tidwell, Gilbert, Mauricio, and Acuna that might be able to step up and take some of those spots, I fully expect the Mets to be huge players in the free agent market.
Does that mean they will be in the market for Soto? That is probable. They want to continue to contend. He fills a need. They have the money to sign him.
To me their biggest needs are on the pitching staff and there is a young ace in Corbin Burnes that may be a bigger priority for them. I can see them going after 2 top of the market starting pitchers and forego Soto.
Instead allowing Gilbert, Mauricio, Acuna, and others to compete for those 2 spots in CF and RF/4th OF.
They would still need a DH and 1B, but that would allow then to rotate a few guys through DH.
NYMETSHEA
I have a feeling Alonso’s day as a Met is coming to an end after this season. Vientos to first seems a likely move with Baty and others (free agent/trade/Mauricio) filling out third.
I want Marte gone (obviously eat salary and/or bad one year deal exchange with another team) and Bader resigned to modest deal. Sign Soto.
websoulsurfer
I can see all of that happening. Mauricio was my pick at 3B this season before the injury.
Blue Baron
websoulsurfer: I see them letting Alonso walk and moving Vientos to first.
LongTimeFan1
@websoulsurfer,
In a previous post, you have Mauricio playing outfield. He has zero outfield experience in the majors and 26 games in left in the minors – and has stated he doesn’t want to be an outfielder.
Furthermore, he’s missed a full year of pro ball. Most likely he’s going to need time in minors before playing in the majors again. He’ll have to earn his way back. Consider that he struggled at the dish in his time on the Mets 2023 active roster.
He’s also an inexperienced third baseman in pro ball – just 27 games, which includes just 5 in the majors. He has some winter ball experience there but that’s the equivalent of minor league ball.
So he’s going to have to battle back and hone his game on both sides of the ball. His calling card is power, high exit velo,,switch hitting, and strong arm. His weakness is plate discipline and low OBP.. Yet unknown is how his reconstructed knee and his recent second surgery to remove scar tissue will be, Will that impact his slightly above average speed, and defensive quickness? We just don’t know and can’t at this time.
Dogleg62
True. Which is why the Mets will go hard after Soto and Alonso would be their fallback plan. And I could see Cashman (if he still has his job after the Yanks are eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round again) going after Alonso as the Yanks’ fallback plan for not signing Soto too. They’ll have a greater need for a 1st baseman next season than an outfielder, with Dominguez ‘s return and denying Rizzo ‘s option year.
CaptainSportfish
Agree with your analysis. NYM gets Burnes at $35M for 3 years with mutual options for 4 and 5. He’ll see the benefit of pitching in Citi and be able to test the market again at age 32/33 for another 3-4 year deal.
Pads Fans
Great breakdown.
Pads Fans
Minor point, but Mauricio played 26 games in LF in 2023 for Syracuse. Mauricio has 445 games at SS but is not considered to be a guy that will stick at the position. The Mets had him playing 3B in Winter Ball for Licey. With the struggles by Vientos and Baty, he was expected to contend for 3B in 2024 before the injury in the DR.
Pretty much all the Mets fans on here are saying Vientos to 1B and whoever is hotter in spring training of Mauricio or Baty taking 3B. I think that is probable.
Pads Fans
Do you really think that a 29 year old Burnes will agree to a 3 year deal? This is his best shot at getting paid and I doubt he accepts less than 6 years. All the articles I have seen are predicting 6/180 to 7/210. We will see what MLBTR predicts in their Top 50 Free Agents piece.
Anthony maresca
Alonso would have to take a discount to remain in NY as Yankees would not go more than 5/125 for a defensive liability 1B hitting .250. Hard pass!
raisinsss
My way too early 2025 prediction is that they keep Marte as DH. Alonso will be out, Vientos to 1b.
Lindor, Iglesias, McNeil, Mauricio / Baty on the if.
Gilbert will be on the od roster. Jett won’t make it.
They’ll bring back one of Manaea and sevy
Anthony maresca
Burnes is getting Cole money 9/325 as a start point!!! You’re joking about tve 3-4 yr deal right?
solaris602
As long as no players named Tellez or Vogelbach (or any 1B of that ilk) are in the mix, the Mets should be fine.
sviscusi
Much rather have Soto than a slightly above average first baseman in possible decline.
DodgersBro
svi
“Much rather have Soto than a slightly above average first baseman”
100
Imagine believing otherwise
websoulsurfer
Merrill had zero OF experience,
920kodiak
Dodgers? Budget? What budget?
NattyLites
I mean the nats are still rebuilding yes but I’m pretty sure sitting through one rebuild year won’t kill him. It’s not likely anyone is guaranteed to be a contender every year (closest thing to that is the dodgers and even then nobody knows Decade from now)
NattyLites
Only really one more year of rebuilding for the nats and prolonged success (like when he was with the nats) is possible
Fernando Ringworm Jr.
Why not?
Longtimecoming
“Why” “could”.
Context of article’s title explains that writer isn’t suggesting that it is likely but on a slow time of the year for “trade rumors” it’s just a conversation starter.
NattyLites
Why not? And did you even read the article?
scottbour
No chance in Hell the Nats sign him. This is click bait for sure.
case
I thought it was a comedy set up, like the various forms of ignorance and delusions of grandeur that could afflict the Nationals GM, leading him to sign Soto.
steveng
Actually it isn’t. They could pay a fortune to Soto and a pitching ace and still have a middling MLB budget. The fans love him in DC and he might get the best reception any player has ever gotten. Plus the ink will flow because it is a great story about how some of Soto’s star teammates were part of his trade to SD.
If the Nats had the highest bid, would Soto be happy to return to Nats park? So many people profess to know the answer to this–but I can’t figure out how they know. Soto is not telling.
Pads Fans
$40-43 million for Soto and another $30-35 million for a TOR starting pitcher and they are still under $200 million. Plenty of money to fill all their other holes and stay under the CBT threshold.
GooseGoslinGuy
The Nats will not pay him. End of story.
NattyLites
You obviously didn’t read the article
Andrew Martin
Didn’t the Nats also sign Soto’s younger brother too? Another piece of the puzzle
cbraves
Found the Juan Soto hater in the room!!!
avenger65
frog: Don’t forget the short porch in RF in Yankee stadium that surely has helped him get to 39 HRs and counting.
Very Barry
He gets more help with his home runs from MLB. He primarily gets fed the balls that go out of the park easily. This is how you create “superstars” outside of the “vitamin” era led by Sosa and McGuire. Same balls have “vitamins” to go out of the park easily, and some don’t.
Cam
Yes, absolutely – pitchers are ignoring the fact that they’re being given juiced up balls in order to feed a hitter’s stats. It’s really nice of them to sacrifice their own performances and earning ability, for the greater good of the sport.
I’ve seen lots of dumb takes on here over the years, but yours might be the worst.
rememberthecoop
You keep believing that buddy. And we knew the twin towers were going down.
websoulsurfer
Take a look at his spray chart and the expected HRs by park on Statcast. He would have hit more HR if he played all his games in other parks than in Yankee Stadium. The most would have been if he played in Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee,
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/juan-soto-665…
Very Barry
@cam Pitchers are sacrificing far more than their stats ….. The changed composition of the baseballs ….. This is why ALL of the pitchers are ALWAYS injured!!! Pitchers are now about to be “sacrificed” for the sake of more offense by being forced to stay in the game for 6 innings. Your failure to see what is obviously happening right in front of you …… The dumbest take ever. $$$$$ win over everything. Rule changes are NEVER for the good of the game ….. only done to try and make for $$$$. Integrity left pro sports long ago. Wake Up!
Blue Baron
Very Barry: Sure. Also, the Apollo moon missions were a hoax and every death of someone under 50 is caused by the COVID clot shot.
Cam
Where’s your proof?
its_happening
Nats are in a position to sign him, sure.
BaseballClassic1985
As a Yankees fan, I really hope some other foolish owner “steals” Soto from them. This guy is not a $500+ million player. Yes, he’s a good hitter, but not as good as writers and fans make him out to be.
Judge is the better player – offensively and defensively – and he makes $40 million per. Soto does NOT deserve more money per annum than Judge.
I’d offer – max – 10 years, $350 million. Take it or leave it. Let some other team overpay for the overrated Soto.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Yes he is. Offering Soto 10/$350 wouldn’t even get a callback.
RunDMC
This is interesting — you think he’s overrated but still worth 10/350M in present-day dollars.
So wouldn’t you think someone else may value him higher and NOT be an overpay, especially in their market where TV ratings, merchandising, ticketing carries more weight?
Armaments216
Soto’s camp will point out that Judge is 32 and his extension began when he was about 4 or 5 years older than Soto is now. And that Soto may not yet have even reached peak performance. This contract will cover a huge chunk of Soto’s prime years before it starts overpaying in the declining years.
Rishi
I think Sotos camp would point out that Judge was injury prone at the time (it seemed like). But he’s not gonna be brought up as a comp anyway in the discussions because of age. Not to mention he was coming off a 60hr year and there was tremendous pressure for NY to resign him.
DodgersBro
BC
“not as good as writers and fans make him out to be”
How good do you make him out to be? Why are you right?
“Soto does NOT deserve more money per annum than Judge.”
Wrong way to look at it. Present value is key.
Ma4170
Im just not getting all of these takes that Soto isnt that good. Despite all of his numbers across the board. And the fact hes still improving and not in his prime years yet. I dont love soto’s antics, but he’s a top 5 mlb hitter. And makes a team better immediately as weve seen w the yankees.
DodgersBro
Ma
There’s nothing to get. Just trolls looking for negative attention.
inutero
what antics? shuffling in the box? being a write in for 400 obp, 30 hr, 100rbi every year? get off your lawn boomer
Ma4170
yes, the shuffling in the box and exaggerated annoying movements, like hes doing some ridiculous interpretive dance. He looks like an idiot and seems to make it all about him. Im not the only one who feels that way at all. And also his overall perceived lack of effort. He could be even better if he actually put in more effort on defense and on the basepaths.
Clear it up for you, Gen Z? Millennial? Or maybe just ahole, which seems appropriate
Rishi
Grabbing his nut$ at the pitcher? IDC if he stopped. He did it many times. It’s an indication of his character obviously.
mlb fan
“Because of those 7 years”…At the end of the day, teams pay for production not “years”.
Aaron Judge is the FAR superior all around player and paying Soto more than him is a serious misstep reeking of desperation.
nanyuanb
If production is what you like, we’ll say the production of Soto in the next 10 years is expected to be greater than that of Judge.
GooseGoslinGuy
Maybe, but actually I was not aware Judge was 32 already. He will continue producing, but once you are nearing 35, you are now at an age where things happen that don’t happen at 25. Look at Trout.
Blue Baron
BaseballClassic: Soto will no longer be under contract with the Yankees, so there would be no “stealing” involved.
That’s what free agency means.
Rishi
I am weary of players with so many games played so young. He may be 25 but he’s already played a TON of games. In my experience players like that tend to wear down earlier. He has little speed and is a bad defender. If you don’t mind paying that much for a soon to be DH then okay. He’s not as marketable as Ohtani (to say the least). And I do think it’s a big deal that he seems a bit like a d0uche. I think 10/350 is what I’d max out at too. It’s a lot of money. This is a huge risk for a team. He doesn’t have the athleticism to make up for an drop in hitting. Lots of these young stars peak early.
inutero
wear down earlier? really? like pujols, ichiro, arod, clemens, etc. you don’t know ball
kevnames42
@inutero While I agree that Soto probably won’t wear down until like 35, you didn’t help your argument by using 2 PED users. They have been known to lengthen careers.
Rishi
Honestly I’m just cheap and used to following low payroll teams and so I feel it’s bad to give a 10+ year deal like that. Ohtani is different. He’s very marketable. Soto has never even been the fan favorite on any of his teams. I need something besides the bat….speed, defense, marketability, to offer a deal like that. There is no logic to citing a few (poor) examples. I am speaking recently. Have you noticed no tendency for players to peak before 26 lately? Especially many Latin players who are often put thru much more work at a young age (even Ichiro would likely have been good longer if his dad didn’t work him to death). But Ichiro had speed, defense, and super marketability. Latin players are often playing minor league seasons when US players are in high school going to the movies with their girlfriend. I certainly know baseball friend…tho I’m not as aware of every single player as I used to be. It’s lost some of its appeal for me as I age and find other things more interesting.
Rishi
The thing I would say is he has an elite eye. Hitters like that do tend to age well with the bat. But if he’s a DH making 50m a year is he worth it at age 30?
websoulsurfer
Soto will likely get the same AAV in present day dollars as judge, only over a 15-year span because he is still 25 years old, 6 years younger than Judge was when he signed his deal. A 15-year deal would take him through his age 40 season. 15 years at $40 million AAV is $600 million.
Soto made comments that position players deserved to make as much as the best pitchers and Verlander and Scherzer got $43 million AAV.
That was before Ohtani got what equates to $46 million AAV to DH.
I don’t think he will get Ohtani money, but 14 years at $43 million AAV is $602 million.
I think you get the point. While getting paid a similar AAV to Judge over a much longer period to account for Soto’s age, he will get substantially more than $350 million or even the $440 million the Nats offered him previously
YankeesBleacherCreature
Judge only had two serious suitors bidding – Yankees and Giants. Soto will have more and is repped by Scott Boras who will most certainly ask for a contract opt-out within the course of five or less years. I’m taking the way over $40MM AAV on a front-loaded contract.
inutero
overrated? this has 9 upvotes? clowns out in full force tonight. literally a top 5 MLB player every year
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Judge is the best hitter of 2024, but Soto is the best pure hitter
Soto walks more than judge, strikes out a lot less, can even bunt for some reason
Pads Fans
Soto is a top 5 hitter in baseball. He is just 25 years old. He turned down extension offers of 14/440 from the Nationals and then 15/500+ from the Padres. There is no way he would even talk to a team that floated a 10/350 offer.
He will undoubtedly get as much AAV as Judge, maybe slightly more. He will just get 5-6 more years so the total will be much, much higher. 14-15 years, which takes him to his age 39-40 seasons, at $40-43 million AAV is what is most likely. Think $600 million total with little or no deferred money.
Captainmike1
If Soto signs with the nationals because they offer more than the Yankees then he is to be pitied
He could never spend all that money and he will be so miserable playing for them
It’s so sad that so many choose money over happiness
No one can spend hundreds of millions of dollars so why place money over happiness
Choose happiness and the money will always be enough when you are talking hundreds of millions
cadagan
@Captain,.you have an interesting take on happiness.
Playing for the Yankees increases happiness?
Or playing for the team that offers you less money?
Or team winning potential equals player happiness?
What will make me happy?
Or is it only the specific player, Soto, that you are aware of, and know what makes him happy?
DodgersBro
CM
“No one can spend hundreds of millions of dollars ”
Give me a chance
stymeedone
Brewster’s Millions?
Snuffy
There is a Zen like atmosphere to this post.
nanyuanb
It seems you don’t know about spending big money and you don’t know about how happy a man will be with that money, LOL
But I get it, you want Soto to stay, and that at least makes you happy.
As a Nats fan, I never thought Nats will be in the bidding war. Nats have a logjam of OFs in the farm, so I’ll be happy if NYY keep Soto and make you happy.
splooz
He was very happy when he played for the Nationals…not sure why he’d all the sudden become miserable,
GooseGoslinGuy
He was so happy, he rejected their offer in ’22 and got traded to the Padres. That’s how happy he was to play for the Nationals. He got a case of Boras-itis.
BaseballClassic1985
I agree 100%. Good player, but not the “generational” talent pushed by the media and parroted by the fans. Walks don’t impress me like they do the new generation.
mlb fan
“Generational talent”…An exquisite hitter who runs probably the worst OF routes in the game of baseball. In a good OF, Juan Soto is the DH.
gbs42
BC85,
The currency of baseball is out and runs. Soto does an excellent job of avoiding the former while doing a tremendous job of producing the latter. He’s a great, even “generational,” hitter.
inutero
I’m sure you would’ve critiqued Ted Williams defense too, honk your clown nose
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
There’s no way he goes back to DC but I think it would be cool if Nats ownership was willing to pay for a player of his caliber
bag o ballz
if he doesn’t go back to DC they are going to have to wait at least another year to do it. there isn’t anyone else really close on the market this year
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Kyle tucker nationals target?
texgal01
Could Atlanta target him. Speaking of Soto being a Boras client what will he get Bregman since Chapman deal Breggy might be coveted. I do not see Houston keeping Tucker or Bregman.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
If Houston resigns bregman, they can’t keep tucker and vice versa so I think Bregman leaves and they resign tucker to a 300 mil contract
Pads Fans
Tucker is not a FA this offseason. It is not a question of one vs the other staying this offseason.
GooseGoslinGuy
Atlanta OF of Soto, Harris II and Acuna would be tough to beat. Soto would have to return to left field, where he started, but that would be okay.
Pads Fans
Is the corporation that owns the Braves willing to part with $40 million AAV for Soto? That would be interesting.
Very Barry
A whole lot better things the Nationals can do with their money other than waste it on Juan Soto. The Yankees are the only team that is going to be serious about paying Soto a fat deal. The Mets will hang around and see if the price comes down. They learned their lesson with the Lindor contract.
Very Barry
Have the Mets seen the Playoffs during the Lindor era????
NattyLites
Yep they’re doing quite well with him in the playoffs in fact
Very Barry
Lindor has a $341 million contract. Not making the Playoffs since he has been a Met isn’t a problem for you?? Lindor has batting averages of .230, .270, .254 and .268 since joining the team. This is what you are paying $341 million for …. To NOT make the Playoffs. Do you think the lack of winning has something to do with a subpar “franchise” player????
NattyLites
Idk that was a pretty sweet grand slam he had to put them in the NLCS
sacball
Using batting average is so 1991…
920kodiak
Didn’t Lindor already make the playoffs with Lindor a few years back?
920kodiak
…playoff with the Mets…
VonPurpleHayes
Yes. In 2022.
VonPurpleHayes
Yup. Mets made the playoffs in 2022.
Ma4170
Yes
Ma4170
exactly, and if they make it this year that’s two of the four years hes been here. The lindor contract has been good value.
mlb fan
“The Yankees are the only team”…Teams that spread their money around, instead of paying one or two superstars, have a far better track record than teams that don’t.
Very Barry
Making the Playoffs ain’t what it used to be. There was a time when a “Wildcard” team didn’t exist. Let alone multiple “Wildcard” teams. The game has been changed in so many stupid ways. The bar gets lower EVER time. Batting average doesn’t matter???? $341 million for a .250 hitter who doesn’t bring elite defensive skills?????
rememberthecoop
One player can’t helpna ballclub make the postseason by himself. Did you just start watching baseball? Look at the Angels – they had Trout and Ohtani and couldn’t sniff the playoffs.
raisinsss
Re: “elite defensive skills”
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Who is #4 in MLB across all positions?
gbs42
“That is the dumbest response I’ve ever heard.”
Read the comment above from the person who said, “I wouldn’t give this guy even 200 million.” And then they questioned his age and character.
Blue Baron
Very Barry: Yes, they have.
Blue Baron
Very Barry: They made it to the postseason in 2002.
rct
“Not making the Playoffs since he has been a Met isn’t a problem for you??”
You are either trolling or extremely dumb. They made the playoffs in 2022.
Also, instead of citing batting average alone (although, if you want to, the league average BA this year is .244, so Lindor’s .268 is very good), how about OPS+ or WAR? Lindor’s OPS+ is 135 and he plays excellent defense. He’s 2nd in the NL in bWAR and first in fWAR. He’ll have 7+ bWAR and 8+ fWAR by the end of the season.
Lindor has already accrued over 20 WAR for the Mets and with another couple good years, he will end up in the Hall of Fame. The Mets are 100000% fine with Lindor’s deal.
websoulsurfer
Very, Yes.
inutero
use lindors ops then, 830. use his ops + then. 130. always been a mid offensive player, anything otherwise is cope
gbs42
A 130 OPS+ is a terrific mark, especially for a shortstop with strong defense. You’re using “mid” completely incorrectly.
raz427
They literally played in the 2022 playoffs against the Padres.
Last time I checked, Mets played October baseball in the Lindor era.
Google is your friend, instead of trying to create web lies.
SkenesandSlopes
They fell just short of 110 wins.
GooseGoslinGuy
…and saying that is so Gen Z.
gbs42
I’m Gen X and have been aware of, and expressing to others, the significant limitations of batting average for a long time.
neurogame
Soto is made to be in NY, whether it’s the Yankees or the Mets. He’d certainly have better protection around him in the Yankee lineup though.
The only reason another team would get involved 8n a bidding war is to screw up the luxury tax for the above franchises.
Samuel
neurogamel
LOL
Where is the “protection” in the Yankees line-up?
It’s a 2 man offense, and Judge hits in front of him.
neurogame
I hope you’ve been reading the replies to this thread. It will illuminate what people think of your behavior.
Joe says...
Since Samuel has muted me, someone tell that moron Soto hits in front of Judge. I remember Stephen A Smith saying the same stupid thing.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Muting is when you can’t reply back right? Looks like I’m also in the mute club!
Joe says...
Awhile back he started muting all the Yankees fans so he could troll without us calling him out on it.
I’m not sure what he has against a Mariners fan but whatever it is I believe you were in the right.
King Floch
Samuel’s ego is about as sturdy as Byron Buxton. Let him have his safespace.
Ma4170
Mets have a deeper lineup than yankees though… but judge is definitely the best protection someone can have. Maybe he wants to be part of an offense thats deeper and well rounded. Or maybe he just wants the most money he can get.
stymeedone
He hired Boras. Isn’t it obvious. Show him the money.
splooz
He’d be surrounded by James Wood, CJ, Abrams, and Dylan Crews entering their primes….which seems pretty good to me.
GooseGoslinGuy
As a DH then? None of them plays centerfield.
baseballpurist
I don’t see a scenario where he leaves the Yankees. Hal Steinbrenner is about the bottom line and Soto definitely helps with that. He will step in just like he did with Judge and make sure a deal is done.
Non Roster Invitee
No odds for that happening even in Vegas. Giants sign Soto and Walker then Maybe a chance for them.
Nats4Lifer
Why would Soto return to the team and ownership that refused to get him a flight to the All Star game?
cpdpoet
Ouch….
Bright Side
Boras is playing his games. More teams, more bidding.
DodgersBro
“net present valuue”
:fans self off:
DarkSide830
Money talks, and the Nats do have it – history of not being massive spenders notwithstanding. It’s clear now, after he didn’t sign with SD and has yet to sign with NYY, the issue wasn’t Lerner, it’s Soto’s asking price. I doubt he gets what he wants, but the Nats are in a spot where going in on him makes as much sense as anyone doing so does.
wagner13
There sure seem to be a lot of people who somehow know exactly what Soto will decide to do. If only I had their foresight… /s
Samuel
“Why The Nationals Could Pursue A Juan Soto Reunion”
An ALE team pays them to run up the price?
–
WE’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTING LIKE THIS IS FREE AGENCY!!!!!!!
Like so many quality FA SS’s in one year such as Correa, Semien, Seager, Baez, Iglesias, Escobar, Swanson, Story, Galvis, etc.
3 years later how are those contracts holding up (in most cases with many more years to go)?
GooseGoslinGuy
Galvis is in the Mexican League.
bkbk
I actually know as fact that the Nationals have earmarked $576m/12 for their max offer. Id lose my job if my name was connected with, but theyre willing to go up to $48/y for 12. Theyre also very committed to no opt-outs.
Cam
Source – “trust me bro”
bkbk
Set a reminder here, please
Ma4170
Its funny, ive been saying 12@47m a year might be the number.
gbs42
bkbk is Burger King Brian Kenny, mystery solved!
Armaments216
If the Nationals could sign the next Max Scherzer that might be the best use of that money. But after the Strasburg extension, signing Soto probably seems like a much safer bet.
gbs42
Who is the next Max Scherzer? It would be great to know that in advance.
raisinsss
Hire me as your next GM and you’ll find out!
Armaments216
@gbs42 – Yeah that’s kind of the point I was blundering around trying to make
highflyballintorightfield
I doubt the Dodgers will be a serious player. They are already LH heavy in the lineup and will probably spend their $ building super-ridiculous pitching depth since this year’s merely ridiculous depth might not be enough. Best I can see is a short term high AAV deal like they offered Harper. Something higher than $45m AAV would at least ruin Boras’s stupid collusion argument., 4 years $200m?
Armaments216
Sign a LH bat and add to the 2025 pitching depth. Seems like they already checked that box.
stymeedone
Are you implying that Soto can’t hit Lefties and should be platooned? Players like Miguel Cabrera, Aaron Judge, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and Bryce Harper aren’t looked at by front offices solely by which aide they bat from. Soto is one of those players.
gbs42
Why would Soto take 4/$200M when he’ll get an AAV close to that over 12+ years? 4/$200M or 12/$540M…easy decision.
thebirds
Now list, the reasons why they won’t. I’ll start, he’ll command a $500-$600 million contract
EM41
The Nationals have multiple needs as they rebuild the team. Spending $500 M or so one one player would be foolish. They would be much better off spending money on a variety of players and patiently build a lasting contender.
DodgersBro
EM
“Spending $500 M or so one one player would be foolish.”
Cue Pete from Moneyball
“Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players. Your goal should be to buy wins”
youtu.be/TpBcwGOvO80?feature=shared
The question isn’t whether one player is worth $500 million, it’s if their production is worth $500 million.
Say, for the sake of argument, that a team has $50 million to spend.
And say that Soto projects for 6 WAR.
A team could spend that $50 million on those 6 wins.
Or a team could spread that money out on say 3 players. If those 3 players are expected to produce more than 6 wins, then better to spend that money on three players. If they are projected to produce less, then better to spend it on Soto.
But bunching more wins in one player often makes more sense.
If the team gets 6 wins from one player then they have 25 other roster spots from where they can get more value. If the team gets 6 wins from 3 players they only have 23 other roster spots available.
If a team has one 6 win player and 25 replacement level players, it’s going to be easier to improve upon those other players. Just find a few 1 win players, for example.
Samuel
DodgersBro;
That argument bit the dust decades ago.
Baseball is played on a field. One player doesn’t create “wins”.
MLB is all about the second season: The playoffs.
–
Wins during the season don’t matter that much anymore. 40% of teams make the playoffs (considering that another 35-40% of teams are either rebuilding or have had excessive injuries and/or players having poor seasons, there are a number of so-so teams that make the playoffs each year…..as is happening in 2024. Add in that when the playoffs start most teams have been through over 26 position players and over 40 pitchers on their roster during the year – while the rules allow for a max of 13 each on any given day of the season.
–
MLB is not basketball where the top scorer gets the ball to shoot more often than his teammates; not football where a top-tier running back or receiver touches the ball a disproportionate amount of time. Soto bats once every 9 batters. If he’s going to eat up that much of a proportion of a teams payroll, he’d better be a high-quality defensive player as well as a top-flite baserunner. He’s not. Most teams recognize that, which is why he’ll only have 3-5 teams in the bidding. And a few will be like SF that wants their fans to think they’re DOING SOMETHING.
Heavens man, come the playoffs they don’t even have to throw 4 balls to take that bat out of his hands at a crucial time. They just tell the umpire that he’s being walked.
DodgersBro
Samuel
“Baseball is played on a field. One player doesn’t create “wins”.”
Players produce runs. Runs produce wins.
“MLB is all about the second season: The playoffs.”
No. Teams have to get into the playoffs first. Soto helps with both.
Samuel
DodgersBro;
Your response can be said for 100 position players in MLB that aren’t looking at $50m a year contracts.
Add in that preventing runs also wins, and Soto doesn’t do much of that.
–
I loved Soto when he was called up in-season by the Nats. Watched a lot of their games. Said he was a netter player than Harper…..which he was. But Harper became a complete player and team leader in Philly. Soto is not a complete player, nor is he a team leader.
–
The issue is not that he can produce runs. The issue is that the money that’s being discussed will limit what a team can spend on other players (no team/business has an open-ended budget). As I noted above — which you ignored as you repeated your blather — baseball is a structured team game. More than a handful of players on a team have to produce for the team to succeed in the playoffs. Position players and pitchers. Again, when one players contract eats up that percentage of a payroll, teams have to settle for less with other players on the roster.
–
Mike Stanton was young with outrageous offensive numbers when the Yankees took on his contract. At that time all your arguments above would have fit taking on Stanton’s contract.
bwood
“when one players contract eats up that percentage of a payroll, teams have to settle for less with other players on the roster”
This is a league with no salary cap only a yearly tax for spending over the base threshold.
That tax is nothing for a MLB club.
Every team can afford to sign Soto, regardless of market size, owner(s) will make that money back and most teams would be greatly improved with him (look at Judge this yr)
This aint the NFL, when a QB eats up 20-30% of the cap.
It comes down to which owner wants to spend to build a club to win and which wants to simply turn a profit.
Both can be done.
That % used up on one player is just owner talk reported by the puppet GM.
DodgersBro
Sam
“Your response can be said for 100 position players in MLB that aren’t looking at $50m a year contracts”
Correct. It’s true for EVERY player. That’s the entire point.
“Add in that preventing runs also wins, and Soto doesn’t do much of that”
You don’t need to add it in. I already said it. Players produce runs either by adding to the offense or to the defense.
“Soto is not a complete player, nor is he a team leader”
Meaningless drivel.
“The issue is not that he can produce runs. The issue is that the money that’s being discussed will limit what a team can spend on other players
…
Again, when one players contract eats up that percentage of a payroll, teams have to settle for less with other players on the roster.
”
Again. You don’t buy players. You buy runs. If you can get the same amount of runs in one player that you can in 3, that’s better. That’s why, you know, better players get paid more.
“Mike Stanton was young with outrageous offensive numbers when the Yankees took on his contract. At that time all your arguments above would have fit taking on Stanton’s contract.”
You are aware that Stanton and Soto are different players, right?
Samuel
DodgersBro & bwood;
LOL
You are one of the last of the Moneyball / Billy Beane sheep. Even Billy said Moneyball doesn’t work in the playoffs. Small market MLB teams have won the past 20 years or so as they’ve adapted degrees of the approach the Rays have. Which is not: “Let’s play rotisserie league for real”.
As for any team being able to pay Soto – LOL LOL LOL!
Here are the payrolls of teams contending in MLB this year:
Guardians − $93,333,629
Orioles − $94,520,400
Rays − $101,023,112
Tigers − $103,834,833
Brewers − $105,833,094
Royals − $115,257,261
Those teams are just going to add $50m to the payroll for one player? Have you kids ever run a household? A business? Do you have any sense of reality?
P.S. Ohtani is the greatest MLB player of all time. No one dominated pitching and hitting at the same time. He draws casual fans into parks at home and on the road regularly. No other player in MLB does…..which includes Juan Soto.
Samuel
DodgersBro & bwood;
The San Diego Padres traded Soto during the offseason.
They’re on track to 1) win more games, and 2) have higher home attendance:
2023 average attendance: 40,389
2024 average attendance: 40,830
Other than Ohtani, no MLB player has a large affect on radically changing the way a team performs or on attendance / views / merchandise sales for more than one year. What affects those things is a team contending and and continuing to contend. The players on the team are incidental. And every experienced, professional baseball marketing person knows it.
DodgersBro
Sam
“Even Billy said Moneyball doesn’t work in the playoffs. Small market MLB teams have won the past 20 years or so as they’ve adapted degrees of the approach the Rays have. Which is not: “Let’s play rotisserie league for real”.”
You are so internally inconsistent it’s ridiculous
You say that Moneyball (and who knows what you think that that is) doesn’t work in the playoffs, then you say that teams are winning by doing what the Rays do
1) the Rays are more Moneyball than the A’s.
2) The Rays aren’t exactly known for their playoff prowess.
3) If small market teams are using it to win, doesn’t that mean it works?
“Here are the payrolls of teams contending in MLB this year:
Guardians − $93,333,629
Orioles − $94,520,400
Rays − $101,023,112
Tigers − $103,834,833
Brewers − $105,833,094
Royals − $115,257,261″
You, uh, left out a couple. The Dodgers, for example. The Yankees, for another.
Instead of cherry picking teams to try to make a point, we can look at EVERY team. Over the last twenty years.
:note – you’ll need a minimal understanding of math to get this, so, if you’re out, I apologize”
“Studies by organizations like the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective show a correlation coefficient (a measure of the strength of the relationship) of around 0.38 for MLB payrolls and winning percentages. This suggests a moderate positive association, meaning high payroll isn’t the sole factor in winning, but it plays a significant role.”
*https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/moneyball-vs-payroll-power-look-mlb-wins-spending-over-last-20-tq04e
“Those teams are just going to add $50m to the payroll for one player? Have you kids ever run a household? A business? Do you have any sense of reality?”
1) am I one of the “kids”?
2) did I say anything about any of those teams adding Soto?
DodgersBro
Sam
“The San Diego Padres traded Soto during the offseason.
They’re on track to 1) win more games, and 2) have higher home attendance:
2023 average attendance: 40,389
2024 average attendance: 40,830
Other than Ohtani, no MLB player has a large affect on radically changing the way a team performs”
Whoo boy. Checkma…
:holds up hand:
:presses finger to ear peace:
The Yankees traded FOR Juan Soto.
2023 Yankees:.506 winning percentage
2024 Yankees: .578 winning percentage
By YOUR logic, Soto really turned the Yankees around.
2023 Dodgers: .617 winning percentage
2024 Dodgers: .596 winning percentage
And by YOUR logic, Ohtani has made the Dodgers worse
Maybe, just maybe, Soto leaving the Padres isn’t what made them better
“What affects those things is a team contending and and continuing to contend. The players on the team are incidental. ”
The players on the team in incidental on winning? Is that what you just said?
Samuel
“You are aware that Stanton and Soto are different players, right?”
DodgersBro;
Gee, I didn’t know that. Thanks. Gosh, I’ve only been following MLB since the Dodgers won the WS in 1955. Guess I’m one of the “dumb” people you cited
-“Soto is not a complete player, nor is he a team leader”
-Meaningless drivel. –
You sure do know a lot about baseball! Ever play it on a field?
Thanks for straightening me out.
DodgersBro
Sam
“I’ve only been following MLB since the Dodgers won the WS in 1955”
Wow. You’re old. Quelle suprise!
“Ever play it on a field?”
Yes. You [redacted]. And it’s almost certain that you weren’t significantly better than I was – not that that matters.
“Gee, I didn’t know [Stanton isn’t Soto and vice versa]”
Then what does this
“Mike Stanton was young with outrageous offensive numbers when the Yankees took on his contract. At that time all your arguments above would have fit taking on Stanton’s contract.”
have to do with anything?
Please answer that question directly
proton
I got confused with all this back and forth. When the Yanks got Stanton he already had a few injuries. Stanton is a workout machine. You can tell by his body. You can also tell he doesn’t do it right. He is so stiff nothing is fluid. He needs to drop the muscle man weights and do some stretching. I doubt he is a ton stronger than Judge but he is fluid and smooth.
About teams being better after superstars leave. Seattle had Griffey and AFraud leave. One other but slips my mind. We won the most or tied for the most wins in history. I will also give it to the other team. They did it in fewer games. The opposing teams were not always good back then and you played the same bad teams many more times. So call it a wash. We got better but man could have used one of those bats. That is why Lou left ownership wouldn’t get us another bat or arm. SP was not set up for the playoffs. Needed 1 more to have 3 playoff ready pitchers.
SkenesandSlopes
1. The Rays have not had that much postseason success
2. The Rays made the World Series in a 60-game season that many believe is a tainted World Series win by the Dodgers
3. Oakland has had virtually no postseason success
The inconsistent Samuel schooled you. And you used teams like the Rays to help his argument.
DodgersBro
SaS
“The inconsistent Samuel schooled you”
Imagine being dumb enough to believe this
bwood
“when one players contract eats up that percentage of a payroll, teams have to settle for less with other players on the roster”
Instead of paying Soto 50m a yr to get proven results you’d do what with that 50m… spend it on 3-4 players to get a yearly WAR of what, nothing close to Sotos yearly WAR?
Im not talking Moneyball but any MLB club can afford to pay Soto that 50M, regardless of market size.
Will he go to any club, hell if I know but the revenue every club pulls can afford it.
You dont think Soto would produce 50M a year for the club he signs with, you really think that?
I don’t care where you pulled those payroll figures out of, obviously your ass cause I couldn’t find those numbers for club payrolls, they are much higher that what you found.
Even so, any team can afford him.
Im not even sure why you are listing payroll, 93,333,629 + 50,000,00 = 143,333,629 so whats the point?
CLE cant afford that?
115,257,261 + 50,000,000 = 165,257,261 so whats the point?
KC cant afford that?
Plus other off season signings, these clubs will fold with another 50M?
Why are you listing payroll in a league with no salary cap anyways, whats the point?
Thats why its called payroll, what you spent, not called a cap or max in what you can spend.
Thats why your household and business failed kid, pick up a Websters.
That BS of one player eating up club spending (or payroll as u put it) has you brain washed. Other leagues, yes I agree.
They don’t want to spend, why, so the owner(s) can line their pockets with profit. So they give us this payroll crap, TV revenue BS, and all the other dribble they spew in the winter.
Its a business to them, to us its fandom.
They all can afford 50M a yr w/ other off season signings.
Whatcha got 55 Dodgers WS?
SkenesandSlopes
Imagine being weak minded enough to be you.
GooseGoslinGuy
Plus, Rizzo knows that pitching wins games. Soto is a nice piece for a team to have — and he proved that in 2019. But Rendon was the heavy lifter on that team and Howie Kendrick was the man in the postseason. Good pitchers are more valuable that a slugging rightfielder with so-so defense. Soto might be worth all that money to another team (Dodgers, Yankees), but not to a Nats team trying to build throughout its roster. Hell, Rizzo dumpster dives every year and actually has success, so he’s not inclined to spend that way even if the team opened up their pocketbook, which they don’t do that much compared to others. I just don’t see them needing to pay a Soto what he will want.
GooseGoslinGuy
Wasn’t Mike Stanton a lefthanded relief pitcher???
stymeedone
@EM41
If you sign a player for 12 years, that’s lasting. Also signing Soto would provide a HUGE increase in sales.
Pads Fans
They wouldn’t be spending $500 million in one year, they would be spending $500-600 million over 14-15 years. Its also not about how much you are spending, its about how much performance you are getting for your money as long as it doesn’t interfere with the team’s ability to fill other holes.
Soto is a 6 WAR player average for his career and is putting up a 7+ WAR season in 2024. They could sign multiple players to provide that level of performance filling multiple holes or they can make an offer to Soto. The problem with using 2-3 out of 26 roster spots to provide that performance is that you use 2-3 spots instead of one. It prevents you from building the strongest possible team.
The Nats will have about $122 million on the books after this season and they are really only losing Corbin and Williams. Still lots of holes on that roster, but signing Soto for $40-43 million AAV would not stop them from filling those holes.
jobe0722
Someone will give him a ridiculous contract that the Yankees won’t match
inutero
just like Cole?? and judge? you forgot the clown makeup today
stymeedone
And Inutero forgot every FA that signed elsewhere, and believes those were the only two they ever wanted to sign. Have you not heard all the complaints by Yankee fans of Cashman not spending?
inutero
you mean Donaldson? stanton? rodon? hicks? cashman spends he’s just inept. spending isn’t the problem
LordD99
A 15/750 deal for a $50MM AAV with a player opt out every season likely gets it done.
Ma4170
Ill be shocked if any team goes over 600M. Just dont see enough teams willing to bid up that high.
DodgersBro
Ma
“Ill be shocked if any team goes over 600M”
Present Value? That’d be massive!
Total payout? Meh? Make it a billion. Who cares?
Ma4170
True… some team could get VERY creative if soto is open to it
920kodiak
Mets, Dodgers and Yankees, are really the only ones. Maybe the Giants, too, since they were all
In on Judge. Beyond that…
Fernando Ringworm Jr.
Juan Soto cares about one thing: Juan Soto. He will sign with the highest bidder. It’s entirely possible that that highest bidder is the Nationals.
SewaldSwansonSwoon
Nah
padrepapi
Yeah I agree that Soto will be going to the highest bidder. The Giants dropping 151m on Chapman makes me wonder what they would pay for Soto. They’ve struck out on numerous superstars and could see them offering Soto over 500m. Regardless safe bet is they fall short.
The Yankees are a weird one. It could very well take 50% more than what they paid Judge 2 years ago so I tend to think if he stays in NY it will be with the Mets but I do think the NYY will be his 1st choice if the money is close.
Looking forward to seeing where he ends up and for what contract. I think I it will be in the 10/450 to 14/550 vicinity. Boras getting that first figure and an opt out after 5 or 6 years could happen.
Would love if he ends up with a surprise team.
inutero
lol if you think the nats are gonna outbid either ny team with that Strasburg albatross contract
Inside Out
Stop with this bs. I know you want it to be something like this but just stop.
fljay73
He will be very good for about 10 years & suck the remaining 5+ years. Unless injuries strike & it could switch around.
gbs42
That projection would be a great return for the team that signs him.
truthlemonade
Soto prefers the East Coast. I would bet he stays with the Yankees.
I am a Padres fan, and would love to have him back, but I just do not see that happening at all. I am pretty ok with a 2025 outfield of Profar, Merrill, Tatis. Maybe even bring back David Peralta as the 4th OF, with Tatis occasionally playing CF.
920kodiak
I agree, it is unlikely, but… Never, ever count Preller out from busting blocks. With him, everything is fluid.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
I’m a Padres fan too, but have ZERO interest in bringing Soto back. Padres players have said over and over again that the difference between last year’s team and this year’s is that this year, everyone is pulling for their teammates instead of worried about themselves..and Soto appears to be the one they’re talking about. Seen Machado and Profar say in post game interviews just over the last few weeks.
The Pads need to utilize their resources for an ACE, and depth pieces while extending King, and possibly Merrill IMO.
Samuel
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame;
A lot of that is the influence of manager Mike Schildt.
GooseGoslinGuy
Speaking of which, Shildt appears to be a playoff machine as a manager. Tell me again why the Cardinals got rid of him??
Pads Fans
Just say no to Soto. I like the chemistry the team has now.
Extend Cease. Extend King. Gives the team a long term rotation of: Cease/Musgrove/King/Darvish/Waldron-Vasquez-?
Serious need for continuity behind the plate so sign a catcher. Higgy?
Extend Kim or possibly sign Adames.
Bring back Solano to DH/1B.
Possibly Peralta as 4th OF. Or just bring up Ornelas
I don’t see many holes and there is depth too. Allow the farm to build itself back up.
James Midway
The Yankees will outbid…The Yankees
Pickle_Britches
Yankees need a 1b, and a 3b. They have another Judge coming up and is a LH Spencer Jones. They have Dominguez also. They would be better off signing Alonso, Adames, and Beiber or Burnes
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Got a feeling they’re gonna sign Ha Seong Kim to play 3rd.
Also..in what world is Spencer Jones “another Judge?” .259 with 16 hrs and 200 stikeouts in the minors? Ffs.
That’s delusional.
Looks more like another Clint Frazier to me..
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Don’t you know that every Yankees prospect is a budding superstar who could probably fetch Ohtani and Betts in a trade if the Yankees felt like it?
920falcon
Ah. I fondly remember the days of we’ll give you Frazier and Andujar, you give us your best player. Good times.
brucenewton
Yankee ownership has stated that the current payroll isn’t sustainable. I can’t see them signing Soto ( and more ) and ducking under a tax tier.
Nats could be ready to move into contender status with a big offseason. They have some nice young pieces.
SewaldSwansonSwoon
This is delusional. Soto’s days wearing the Curly Dub are done forever.
wvsteve
He’s it getting 440
Huh???
Not sure why there are so many Soto haters. He is about to become the 5th fastest (or something like that ) to get to 200 home runs – he has averaged 6 WAR per season and can easily be projected to achieve 7 -8 WAR for the next 8 seasons. 60 WAR is conservative – 80 plus WAR more likely over the rest of his career. Agents promote WAR as worth $10 million per season. I think a 15 year, $600 million deal at $40 million a year is achievable and reasonable based on the numbers.
He is clutch and wants to win. – mediocre fielder and bad base runner but a great hitter.
rememberthecoop
The dumb commenters are out tonight.
websoulsurfer
Huh??? is not one of them.
inutero
salty Yankee haters is all
rememberthecoop
15 years/$600M
ccsilvia
Zero chance that he leaves the Yanks.
As a Sox fan I’ve seen this story play out too many times.
When they expend resources like that for a player like this, they keep him, no matter the cost
Pickle_Britches
They have Spencer Jones who is supposed to be a LH Judge type. Dominguez also. They need a 1B move Jazz to 2nd sign Adames, Alonso, and a SP like Burns, Fried or Beiber. Much better value than signing 1 player
ccsilvia
Totally agree, but the Yanks don’t often trade for a superstar/generational talent and then let him walk out the door. Not in my memory.
Pickle_Britches
He’s 25 with almost 200 hr, 35 war,1000 hits and better career OPS than Bryce Harper. He deserves more than him. He’s definitely worth more than 200 million lol. If Turner, Machado and Bogarts get 300+ he’ll have them beat easy
jswanny41
There’s really no need for an article this long analyzing “why”. He’s awesome, young, and the Nats have money.
GooseGoslinGuy
The Nats do not ever want to spend frivolously. And they can achieve their aims with pitching and other position players.
jswanny41
Signing arguably the best hitting position player in baseball who’s still only 25 is hardly frivolous.
SteveFinleyEnthusiast
Wherever he ends up signing, just keep him out of the NL West. Unless it’s with my Friars, though I’d put the odds of me marrying Anya Taylor-Joy to be much higher than Soto coming back to San Diego.
I’d have to imagine the Yankees will bring him back. That, or Steve Cohen opening up the checkbook and making him an offer he simply can’t refuse.
920kodiak
It would be great if you did marry Anya Taylor-Joy, though.
SteveFinleyEnthusiast
No argument there!
DodgersBro
Dodgers
1) he is awesome. Every team should want him
2) dumb people’s heads exploding
stymeedone
Due to his expected salary, every team may want him, but maybe six teams will be able to afford him. I don’t see them being the high bidder, but I can see the Nats bidding.
SkenesandSlopes
1. Every team wants him. Not every team is willing to pay for him
2. Did you become an authoritarian on dumb based on personal experience?
Blue Baron
Thefrogsaregey: How do you know anything about his character?
Zombie Bukowski
Why do the Nats need to sign another outfielder when they have Wood and Crews already out there solidifying the lineup for the next 6 years?
/s
Zombie Bukowski
Either hope the Yankees or the Dodgers sign him to a $500 million dollar contract. If there was a guy who was destined for such a contract who plays no defense, has no speed, and is questionable in the clubhouse it’s Short Pants Soso
Mickey Solis
Dodgers. Book it. The greediest scumbags on the planet, hopefully after another non-legit-World Series winning season (36 years and counting) keep throwing money at their drought and try to stuff more superstars on their roster. Soto cites this “once in a lifetime” opportunity to play with a team of mostly free agents and trade purchases and international ringers and his desire to bring a championship to the fans of Los Angeles, who could not care less but their few online trolls will continue to deny and talk about how great their homegrown talent and player development is. Rob Manfred continues to deny that baseball has a competitive balance problem. Soto becomes the league’s first 60/60 player when MLB tweaks its stupid rules even more and disallows pickoff throws altogether, further asterisk-ing Ohtani’s 50/50 season.
Again, book it.
inutero
you sound a little upset. take your meds today!
920kodiak
Soto, Betts, Ohtani, Freeman-the real Fearsome Foursome.
ctyank7
Agreed on Soto joining the Dodgers. Walter and Friedman have never been outbid for a player they really want.
And YOU KNOW THEY WANT Juan Soto.
kujokusa
It helps , too, that there is NO income tax for non-residents of the District of Columbia !!!
Samuel
LOL
First and foremost, the politicians take care of themselves.
Pads Fans
MLB players pay income tax where they play each game.
kujokusa
For Soto it would be <81 games (non- D.C, TEX and FLA) games included. (i.e.- setup LLC,, foreign corporations in each state (write offs), pre-tax write offs for 35% contributions to personal foundations, not a resident if spent less than 180 days each year in each state played, etc) On a $50M yearly salary, to include everything above, his taxable income total would be less than $20-25M) .
kujokusa
To go one step further, a 28% corporate tax rate equates a tax bill of around $5.5M on an overall salary of $50M with a $20M-$25M taxable income.
Pads Fans
In MLB they are paid where each individual game is played. They are paid as an individual, not a corporation. All MLB contracts are an employment contract with the individual.
They can dodge a huge amount of taxes after the fact, but nothing else you said works. Sorry.
That is why players don’t care if they play most of their games in New York or California or Massachusetts. It just doesn’t matter that much.
inutero
he is a top 5 MLB hitter. take ur meds
Domingo111
I don’t think it will be the nats, it is probably down to the Mets, Yankees and dodgers.
He would of course be a great fit for every team but few can afford him. Nats would of course be great adding him to that young core but I don’t see it.
Probably boras trying to build up some bidding competition
hyraxwithaflamethrower
All these owners are billionaires. Almost any team could afford him. For a small-market team like the Royals or Rays, it wouldn’t make sense because he wouldn’t boost their revenue enough. For rebuilding teams, it also doesn’t make sense unless they want to get super-aggressive like the Rangers did a few years ago. But most teams could afford him. They’re just too cheap.
920kodiak
The Lerners were deferring before deferring was cool.
I think they have some money owed to Scherzer and Strasburg, still, but probably not too much beyond that. It’s been a few years since they signed anyone to a big money contract.
Attystephenadams
He’s going to stay with the Yankees and they’ll reward him very well. The Mets are going for a luxury tax reset with all that payroll coming off the books. I hope they let Alonso walk, move Vientos to first and spend on pitching. I’d be wary of Burnes as he’s going to want a big deal and his peripherals have been dropping. They’re better off re-signing Manea and Severino to 3 year deals. They’ve already got a lot invested in Lindor for years to come, and I can’t see doing that with Soto too. I just don’t think that contract will age well, I have visions of Stanton 2.0.
inutero
soto and Stanton aren’t comparable at all lmao.
Ma4170
Soto is a much better hitter than stanton was though. But if the contract really does approach 15-600 as some are guessing, i would steer clear
DM_Nats
Do I think the Nats are the favorite to sign him? Probably not. But I think they’re way more in play than fans of other teams think.
The total contract value doesn’t matter, it’s what the AAV is going to cost. The Nationals current payroll is among the bottom in baseball at around $100M. Corbin and several others off the books (Stras contract almost done as well). Essentially the Nationals have nobody over $10M on the books for next season. The payroll is projected to be around $60M. Even if they take their payroll to a league average of ~$160M they will still have $100M they can take on in additional yearly salary. That’s why they’re in play. Not only can they sign Soto, they can sign 2 other $25M salary players (maybe Walker and a SP?).
DM_Nats
And before you say – “they’re cheap no shot!” The Nats carried a payroll in the top 10 of baseball for nearly a decade. Several payrolls over $200M. My $160M calculation is absolutely in play for this ownership.
Ma4170
Exactly. I could actually see it. And now that they have abrams wood crews developing, he would make that lineup scary.
GooseGoslinGuy
That was then, this is now.
DodgersBro
DMN
“Do I think the Nats are the favorite to sign him? Probably not. But I think they’re way more in play than fans of other teams think.”
A comment with more then absolutely 0 nuance!
Wow!Kudos!
prov356
My big takeaway from this article is that Strasburg is still being paid…ouch.
believeitornot
Doesn’t Alex Call enter in the conversation at all? He was much better than Lane Thomas. Maybe it was a fluke. I know he has never given an inkling of being that productive. I don’t see Juan Soto going back to d.C.
dclivejazz
Ha, Alex Call is not blocking the Nats from considering trying to get Soto.
GooseGoslinGuy
He was/is not better than Lane Thomas. He is spunky, but his bat is weak (despite an anomalous BA this year).
King Floch
The Dodgers don’t seem like a good fit since, for the next decade or so, their DH spot is spoken for with Ohtani.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
With his offensive production, you can live with his glove. He’s still young enough that he could improve in that department with hard work and the right coaching.
jekporkins
It’s a two-team race between the Yankees and Mets. All these articles are fun but getting fans’ hopes up is almost cruel.
Joel from NY
What grounds do you have to be so sure of that?
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I heard similar about Ohtani before he signed his first deal. It was definitely, 100% going to be the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets. How could it not be?! And then it wasn’t. My guess is he leaves NY.
GooseGoslinGuy
LOL. Nats fans have no illusions about their team bidding for unattainable players.
good vibes only
Moronic take
holecamels35
Imagine if a team like the Orioles or Royals sign him?
The O’s had high payrolls before and have a new owner, the only issue is Adley and Gunnar will need enormous contracts as well. But why not lock in another elite offensive talent and trade one of your top prospects for another top of the rotation pitcher?
And the Royals should be relevant as long as they have WItt Jr, the both of them would be an insane duo for a decade.
chemfinancing
Soto is doing nothing other than resigning with Yankees. Duh. Obviously.
Luke Strong
Probably not. I think 90% chance he signs elsewhere. Boras is not to be underestimated.
Joel from NY
Enjoyable column. But the author (and a lot of other would-be journalists) should look up the word “exponentially”. Hint: it doesn’t mean “a whole lot”!
Luke Strong
I think Detroit is a logical destination for him. The club is young and exciting and they could really use that big bat as the missing piece, plus they need a long term face-of-the-franchise to replace Cabrera. They’ve got the money, they’ve got the need…
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I think it’s a foregone conclusion he’s signing with the White Sox.
dclivejazz
As a Nats fan, I say, “come to Papa, Juan!”
Heels On The Field
The $386 million is his ceiling. This site is still as off with their predictions as they were last winter.
Soto is a DH. $386 millon for a DH is a lot of money.
Blue Baron
Heels: Check your facts. Soto has played 287 games in the outfield and 11 as a DH in the last two seasons.
That’s an outfielder, not a DH.
Baseball Reference is your friend. Use it.
Heels On The Field
I did. “Player Value”. Soto is a negative defender. If the Yankees had another corner outfielder who could hit better than Stanton they would DH Soto.
Blue Baron
Heels: And if your aunt was a guy, she would be your uncle.
gbs42
Is the negative compared to average or replacement?
proton
My prediction is the Mariners come out on top. They will make an 8 year $660mill offer. He will accept and Seattle will win. 7 WS with him.
Yaaawn just woke up from a nap anything odd or exciting posted? Cheapskate Ms will never even try to get Soto. Make a profit is goal 1. Tell fans they will do what it takes to win and s goal 367. On the 367 day of every year they will throw it all in on the top FA out there.
solaris602
I mostly agree with what you’re saying, but imo there is no professional athlete in the world who is worth $400M+. I don’t care who they are or what they can do. The number of teams who can genuinely afford Soto are way fewer than we’re being led to believe.
gbs42
solaris,
Owners who purchased teams 20-30 years ago in the $150M range now have assets worth $2B-$3B. There’s tons of money pouring into the game. The result is players getting a cut of this revenue and increased value, meaning $400M+ now qualifies as reasonable.
If players didn’t get these mega contracts, the money would simply stay in owners’ bank accounts. And no, ticket prices wouldn’t be meaningfully lower if player salaries were reduced. Ticket prices are set by supply and demand, which is largely independent of player salaries/payroll.
raisinsss
I think the number of teams who can afford Soto is actually higher than you’ve been led to believe. And if an employee (a lawyer, if you wish) brings in $500k in new business and costs the firm $400k, she will have been worth $500k.
X100 this. The economics of the game are not at a scale that the average fan ever operates in.
YanksPhan42
There is ZERO chance of him going back to DC. Why would you want to go back there to be buried in 4th place yearly when you can stay with the Yankees or go LA and have a chance to win yearly. Both of those team will be bidders I’m sure.
Porch
BREWERS!!
oneiblnd
Juan Soto isn’t going anywhere. The Yankees aren’t going to be outbid.
splooz
Not that much. Just $15m or so to Scherzer for three more years. Most the big names rejected their offered of deferrals like Harper and Rendon.
splooz
There are articles at a lot of sites talking about this possibility. There’s definitely some smoke here. He will have plenty of suitors and some nice offers but I’d expect the Nats to be in on him after all this.
What better way to announce “We”re back!” Than bringing in the top FA who’s beloved by the fans, fills all kinds of needs, and can help mentor their young studs?
GooseGoslinGuy
Longtime Nats fan here. I don’t think so.
Mickey Solis
Helps to have Aaron Judge hitting behind you in the lineup that’ll inflate anyone’s numbers.
dlj0527
See his current age caught me by surprise. Thought he would be 29 by now. Don’t see him going back to Nationals. Would probably take less money to play elsewhere. LOL
larkraxm
I’m not sure when the hot take started that the Yankees are now the Brewers and can’t “afford” Soto. You must not watch Yankees games. The Yankees can not afford to let Soto walk. Torres, Rizzo, Verdugo, etc… are gone for sure. Those salaries equal Soto. The Yankees paid Hicks and Donaldson more in 2023 than they paid Soto in 2024. Just because the Yankees were not willing to pay $60 million per year for Blake Snell, does not mean they are suddenly the Seattle Mariners. They could have if they wanted to, they just didn’t want to. The Yankees can afford to pay Soto whatever the market happens to be. If the hot take is that they won’t want to pay him the market rate, then that is nonsense.
Positively Half St
Just a quick correction. MLB still owned the Nats for their inaugural 2005 season, after devastating the Montreal roster with the Grady Sizemore trade and other incredibly poor and cheap transactions.
This one belongs to the Reds
Anyone who thinks Soto is getting a Shohei type deal, and that includes Soto and Bora$, who will hold up FA again trying, are just fooling themselves.
douglasb
Someone will offer 14 years and $450m. They will likely regret it.
rockwoodhard
I think Bryce Harper’s deal is a good proxy from 5 years ago.
I think Juan Soto will get 10+ years, $400+ M
OR I can see a 7 year, $300+ M with potential opt out after 5 years, and then try to cash in on another big age 30 FA deal
GooseGoslinGuy
Where’s the companion article: “Why Juan Soto Would Never Pursue a Reunion with the Nationals”? Slow news day apparently.