Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?

There are less than 48 hours until the posting window closes for NPB slugger Kazuma Okamoto. His first MLB contract needs to be finalized by Sunday at 4:00 pm Central. There’s a good chance Okamoto agrees to terms by tomorrow. Tatsuya Imai agreed to a three-year deal with the Astros yesterday to leave a day for a standard physical before his own signing deadline this afternoon.

The right-handed hitting Okamoto is one of the more interesting mid-tier free agent bats. He’s a career .277/.361/.521 hitter over parts of 11 seasons at Japan’s highest level. Okamoto was limited to 69 games last year by an elbow injury. That kept his counting stats down, yet his .327/.416/.598 slash line was the best rate production of his career. He has six 30-homer seasons on his résumé and walked as often as he struck out last year.

Okamoto is headed into his age-30 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll command a long-term deal, especially after younger Japanese stars Imai and Munetaka Murakami found cold enough markets to take short contracts. He should land with a club that views him as a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next few seasons. While Okamoto doesn’t have the eye-popping power that Murakami brings to the table, he should have a higher floor based on his superior bat-to-ball skills. Okamoto made contact on 80.4% of his swings last year; Murakami’s contact rate has been below 64% in consecutive seasons.

Both players are corner bats. Murakami is expected to be a first baseman for the White Sox. Okamoto’s position probably depends on his landing spot. One scout with whom MLBTR spoke at the beginning of the offseason opined that he could play a serviceable but unspectacular third base. Okamoto made 52 appearances at the hot corner and played 27 games at first base for the Yomiuri Giants last season. He was primarily a first baseman the year before that, making 130 appearances there against 39 outings at third.

Okamoto was a full-time infielder last year. He has 164 career appearances on the outfield grass, though, including 15 two seasons ago. Will Sammon of The Athletic floated the possibility of an MLB team giving Okamoto some work in left field as another way to get his bat in the lineup.

The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Cubs have been at least loosely connected to Okamoto during his posting window. San Diego’s and Pittsburgh’s interest has come up most frequently, though it’s unclear how much to take from that. The White Sox weren’t tied to Murakami until very late in the process, while it wasn’t publicly known that the Astros were involved on Imai at all until an agreement was done.

Where will Okamoto end up?