A mass influx of young talent led the 2023 Reds to a 82-80 record, and hopes that the club could develop into full-fledged contenders this season. Unfortunately, even a .500 record is a longshot at this point, as the 72-77 Reds have fallen out of playoff contention. Most of Cincinnati’s breakout players from 2023 took steps backwards due to injuries or just flat-out lack of production, and players like Jeimer Candelario or (the since-traded) Frankie Montas meant to bring veteran stability also struggled.
“As of right now, we’re going to evaluate everything at the end of the year and see what we have to do to move forward,” president of baseball operations Nick Krall told reporters, including the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer. Krall included “myself, everybody” under this purview, though there hasn’t been any indication that ownership is considering firing Krall less than a year after signing him to a contract extension.
Manager David Bell also inked a new extension midway through last season, locking up the skipper on a three-year deal covering the 2024-26 campaigns. “He’s got a contract for next year,” is now Krall described Bell’s status with the organization, which could be read as either a matter-of-fact way of declaring Bell’s job security, or as something less than a full confirmation that Bell will return for what would be his seventh season as the Reds’ manager.
Krall noted that organization-wide evaluations are done every year as a matter of due diligence, so in general, the PBO isn’t breaking any news by saying that the Reds will take a deep look at what went awry. However, such evaluations in the wake of a losing season could potentially lead to larger moves as the team looks for answers. It would seem like some coaching changes will be made at the very minimum, and whether or not Bell’s job atop the dugout depth chart remains to be seen.
Bell takes a 405-452 record into today’s action, with winning records in three of his six full seasons. The Reds have never had better than a .517 winning percentage under Bell, and their only playoff appearance during his tenure came in the shortened 2020 season, when the league expanded the playoff bracket to 16 teams. Cincinnati was a quick out in that year’s postseason, as the Reds didn’t even score a run during a pair of losses to the Braves in a best-of-three wild card series.
As always, it is hard to pinpoint how much a manager does or doesn’t contribute to a team’s success or failure. Bell took over a Reds team that was just coming out of a rebuild, and then quickly entered into another payroll cut and semi-rebuild following the 2021 season, as the team wanted to save money due to revenues lost during the pandemic. Bell has managed the Reds through this tumult, as well as a front office change (with Krall taking over the baseball operations department from Dick Williams after the 2020 season), the completely unexpected circumstance of the pandemic, and then this quick pivot back to a reload of young talent.
Unless ownership feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to really get the Reds back onto a winning track, Bell might get at least one more year as manager. It seems quite possible the Reds might suddenly have a much more positive outlook if the younger players who struggled or missed time this year (i.e. Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Alexis Diaz, Noelvi Marte, etc.) re-establish themselves in 2025. And, if Bell is being gauged on the development of the team’s young core, then the emergence of Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, and Andrew Abbott could all count as arguments as to why Bell should stick around.
For as much as a managerial change can shake things up, it is also perhaps the easiest way for a team to address a disappointing stretch of play, and not necessarily the correct way. Krall will face an interesting offseason in determining how to build the roster through more additions (while still operating on a somewhat limited payroll), and in figuring which of the younger stars might have played themselves out of Cincinnati’s future, or who just had “sophomore slump” types of seasons.
Can we just go back to GM for the ultimate head of baseball operations? Title inflation.
All teams should evaluate everything each offseason.
I think in a lot of cases you still have the GM doing the majority of GM work. The PoBO is the front office CEO more than anything with how large and complex these front offices are. It’s just they get the publicity and talk in front of the camera.
They also have the final say, so the buck stops with them. They’re the ones who should get the credit for the good and take the fall for the bad, since they signed off on their subordinates’ successes or failures.
I think final say can be overblown as it may be signing off on the work someone else has been delegated, but you are right in that they must take ownership of the decisions. Another thing though is not every PoBO role is equal. The previous Phillies front office had Matt Klentak basically in charge of all the roster and team related activity while Andy McPhail was a figurehead and mostly focused on the business side. Now with Dombrowski he’s the man in charge of everything.
At the executive level, baseball is a results-based business. Krall, and Bell, get paid a hefty seven figures each year to come up with a winning formula…
…for their respective team owners and not necessarily for their fans.
Hopefully Matt McLain gets healthy… hopefully.
Hopefully he maintains his 2023 .385 BABIP throughout his entire career as well?
That wasn’t such a confident response regarding Bell’s status as manager, he might not be manager after 2025, especially if 2025 doesn’t produce a playoff appearance. Reds have a lot of guys that will be healthy next year so I wouldn’t count them out of a playoff run.
The Reds have as much talent as Milwaukee but don’t play with the smarts or precision that the Brewers do. If they don’t tighten up their game, Bell will be fired if not this year then next year.
Right ! If the guys running the rays or dodgers had the reds roster – this would be a playoff team no doubt !
@Jim
I agree. Bell hasn’t done anything to prove he’s a difference maker. It’s probably time for a change.
Completely empty statement by Krall, who hasn’t shown much himself.
That is what gm’s typically say when they are going to fire their manager after the season
I like David bell, injuries aren’t his fault but this team took a step back this year and krall could use bell as the scapegoat for keeping his job
I called it a couple months ago that Bell would be tge fall guy for the front office failures. Truth is they should clean house but the owner won’t pony up for a competent crew, which is why they are where they are with the talent they have but won’t supplement as needed.
If their ownership wasn’t cheap they could’ve brought back Sonny gray last year without breaking the bank that hard
But mlbs payroll system sucks so there’s 50 million payroll teams and 350 million teams
Sonny Gray would have made zero difference for Cincy this season. Lack of run production is mostly to blame due to injuries. Besides Gray let it be known he wanted to pitch in St. Louis.
And then they’ll keep doing the same things they have been.
They have for a couple of decades now with this ownership and 34 years overall.
They have Einstein’s theory of insanity down to a science.
Bell will be fired next August when they are 4th in the NLC again.
It should be noted that it’s hard to win with a year end 90M$ payroll, ownership lives 20 years in the past.
Yet the Reds easily outspend the Pirates every year even though Cincinnati is the smallest media market in MLB and the Pirates have much better real world attendance (seats packed matching announced numbers).
The next time anyone mentions MLB expansion recommend MLB move the Pirates, Reds or Marlins or just get them new owners who do not steal all the money.
Krall (and ownership) contributed to the lousy season by failing to add a legitimate outfield bat and the terrible Candelario signing. The team’s long history of misdiagnosing injuries is also unsettling.
Krall doesn’t make out the lineup card Bell keeps playing Benson and Marte, while Dunn and Hines sit. Canelario has been injured and is within 5-10% of his career BA. What Reds didn’t get from Candelario is that GABP bumpup in XBH and RBI that was expected. His defense suffered a downturn at 3rd as well. Not the level of disaster that Moustakas was. Krall (and DJ) have built an improved pitching staff and may have pitching to trade by next July or so. That is probably how the Reds eventually build an effective lineup.
Bell wouldn’t qualify for one other job in all of mlb and the only reason he has the reds job is bc they hire internally from a homegrown pool of underachieving losing managers
If the dodgers or rays had this roster – it would be a playoff team !
Reds rank last or near enough in both injury prevention and player development. Talented players like Jose Siri and Robert Stevenson go on to have successful mlb careers while prospects like Conner Phillips completely fall off the radar and elite talents like Rhett Lowder and cam collier struggle. And everyone is always hurt beyond superstition or bad luck.
Absolutely dismal franchise ! Been waiting a decade for this season and it was a complete failure before the regular season games even started.
I’m going to find a hypnotist this off season in hopes to change my mind to root for a new team. What other option do I have ??
Jose Siri? He developed? When did that happen?
Successful Jose Siri???? The guy hitting .185????? You might get a job with the White Sox
He went from cut from reds to being on 25 man roster in Tampa for several years now
Big Wiffa you may want to take a closer look at Rhett Lowder, he has been outstanding.
At the mlb level after underperforming all season. He would be a top 25 prospect if he’d been performing at that level on season but he came into the season unprepared and flat
The Reds should evaluate whether or not Krall should keep his job. He has led their front office since after the 2020 season and their best finish is 2 games above .500. They’ve amassed lots of good young talent but have little to show for it. Today it’s easier to get a playoff berth than ever.
Numerous reasons for their poor season
Injuries
Not spending enough
Spending poorly on the guys they did spend on
Pythagorean says they are 5 games below their true talent that’s usually either bad managing or a bad bullpen and both appear to be a problem.
A few small tweaks and the Reds can compete next year. A new closer I would say is the first priority.
Their bullpen may not have been stellar but their issue all year has been an anemic offense. Not many blown leads, just lots of losses in low scoring games. With a scattering of occasional blowout wins that bumped up their run differential and Pythagorean record. They need to add more than just Matt McLain’s healthy bat if they want to compete next season.
More offense, a deeper bullpen, and a deeper roster period definitely the prescription. Who knew the starting pitching actually would not be too much of a concern next year outside of continued health with Aguiar and Lowder actually impressive so far at the big league level a year early. On the other hand, Phillips and Spiers look to be the opposite.
“Spending poorly on the guys they did spend on”? Montas was worth his pay while here-but was traded for Weimer and Junis (who’s less expensive and even more effective); Martinez was a big bargain. Suter and Farmer were bargains as well. Pagan is about par for his contract- but has been on the IL some. Espinal is a steal. Candelario has underperformed- but not dramatically. . France has been a plus so far. Rosario, D. Smith, etc hardly worth mentioning. I don’t see the poor spending. All in all, the FA signings and acquisitions were money well spent.
Goes to show you can’t simply just expect improvement from young talent and they must be coached properly and make adjustments to avoid being a flash in the pan. Hard to explain why things went the way they did, I think they built a very good team, just didn’t work out, and also bullpen implosions messed things up. Funny how teams like them and the Pirates were done in by the same thing, even though they went into the season with very good closers. Teams were just teeing off on the both of them.
Nick Krall should be evaluating himself. He made two of the worst free agent signings in baseball this past winter.
Krall signed Jeimer Candelario to a 3 year $46 million dollar contract. After just a few games, it became clear Candelario could not play in the field. So, the Reds ended up with a life time hitting .240 DH who is the highest paid player on the Red’s roster.
Krall also signed Frankie Montas who pitched a grand total of 1.2 innings in 2023. Predictively, he was terrible in 2024.
Nick Krall also decided the Reds did not need another outfielder or hitter. They needed both.
Nick Krall also decided he did not need to improve the team at the deadline the past few years. Spoiler alert: He needed to.
But, by far Nick Krall’s greatest mistake was given David Bell a three year extension coming off a 100 loss season in 2023.
So if Nick Krall really wants to improve the Red’s organization, he would immediately resign.
All points on target. It is true they have had an unusual number of key injuries on top of several that have just non produced with the bat Still, they should have done a good bit better than they have. Under performance usually lays at the feet of the front office and manager. They have managed to draft fairly well despite not drafting many highly rated hitters. I agree you win with pitching and defense. Elly is not fitting the top defender role at SS. It may be he winds up at 3B (if Marte doesn’t pick it up with the bat) and Arroyo winds up at SS. I wouldn’t get rid of CES just yet as he hasn’t had much of a chance due to injury. Collier has to prove himself at AA and AAA.i
Bob…cat, CORRECTION, Montas was terrible in CINCINNATI in 2024. He’s done incredibly well since trade to Brewers
More shotty player development by reds ! Perfect illustration between the two organizations!
This is also Kralls like 4th rebuild. He’s been there the whole time setting up fall guys so he can stay in power
True, was in player development and assistant GM during the others for well over a decade before GM. Have heard several things that pretty much fit that.
1 or 2 veteran starting pitchers, getting away from that Candelario contract, and an outfield bat should help them return to fun young team to watch next season
Sounds like what the Royals did.
Will they also evaluate their own performance?
I feel like their record vs run differential shows the youth of this team. In my opinion the Reds seem positioned for a bright future.
They should have never fed too much into the “seller” mentality and traded Luis Castillo because of it. Yes, they got a good package “on paper” but would have been very nice to have Castillo and Hunter Greene atop the rotation for years. His contract wasn’t even too bad. Spending 12M on Montas who is a 4-5 starter prevents them from doing much else.
Reds could have afforded the Castillo contract too. More poor management by krall
I think you are being very kind. Unless Noelvie Marte becomes an everyday player the Reds didn’t get anything at all from the Castillo trade. On paper or otherwise.
Yeah if I were them I’d mostly be taking a good long look at their outfield situation.
Friedl, Fraley, and Benson have all shown two very different world sides. How much to you wanna invest in those three?
Friedl would be the only one to consider in my opinion, but his health is a concern. At the very least they should have had a good fourth who had to shave.
We need another OF who is an above average hitter that has some pop. Whether we get him via free agency or trade, it doesn’t matter.
Then we need some good health and further development from some of the youngsters.
Living an hour from Philly, it’s tempting more and more each year to jump ship. Been a Reds fan since an early age. Dad was a Pirates fan and I loved Barry Larkin. It’s hard to sit here and watch us give older pitchers a chance and they perform well and then move on because we can’t spend the money to bring them back. Nobody wants to pitch here because of the the walls, even if we did pay them. Clean up this mess from the outside and then work your way in. Start with Krall and Bell. Splurge on a solid starter and a consistent bat.
Changing teams is not possible lol. I’ve been trying for a long time. The heart wants what the heart wants.
There’s plenty of teams I root for now- philis are one of them ! Very few teams can build through free agency like they do!
When “and” starts the sentence, there shouldn’t be a comma after it.
Reds like Woody Harrelson: evaluating ones life choices after a bender