The David Bednar Question

David Bednar has been the subject of trade speculation for the past few seasons. For the most part, that was a testament to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball during his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the big righty combined for a 2.27 ERA while striking out more than 30% of batters faced over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 games, including an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.

That production came on rebuilding teams. Pittsburgh was nowhere close to the postseason. Other teams no doubt tried to pry Bednar away, but the Bucs never seemed interested in moving him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who looked like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs control him through 2026 and surely envisioned fielding a playoff team before then.

Bednar could resurface as a trade candidate in the coming weeks but under much different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his career. The question now is not whether the Pirates should sell high on an affordable, breakout closer. It’s whether to move on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his trade value has hit a low ebb.

Even with the understanding that reliever performance can be volatile, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per nine this year. That’s not a reflection of poor batted ball results that could be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked across the board.

His strikeout rate had landed between 28% and 33% in each of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this past season, slightly below the league average for relievers. Bednar’s walk percentage jumped from the 7-8% range to nearly 11%. He allowed more home runs (nine) in 57 2/3 innings this year than he’d given up (seven) across 119 frames in the previous two seasons combined. Bednar lost a lot of whiffs on both his four-seam fastball and curveball compared to prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, in particular, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.

Bednar started the season terribly, allowing 14 runs in 10 innings through the end of May. He managed much better results over the next two months, albeit without the level of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a couple weeks leading into the All-Star Break with an oblique strain. The wheels came completely off coming out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his next 14 2/3 frames.

The Pirates, who had plummeted from contention, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning at the end of August. By that point in the year, the focus was on getting him right going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was better, as he allowed a manageable five runs (four earned) over 10 2/3 frames. Yet he walked another 10 hitters with nine strikeouts in mostly low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a resounding finish.

It’d be easier to explain the dip in performance if Bednar’s velocity had tanked coming back from the oblique strain. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the start of May onward. His 97.2 MPH average heater for the season was the highest of his career. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His results never consistently turned the corner, though.

That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his front office in a difficult spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a solid $4.51MM salary during his first run through arbitration. He’ll be due a raise even on the heels of a down year. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a player accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the highest figure in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the roster as things stand.

A $6.6MM salary would be a bargain if Bednar pitched at anywhere near the level he showed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the kind of money the Pirates (or any team) would want to devote for his ’24 results. The Pittsburgh front office annually works with a tight budget from ownership. That didn’t stop the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM salary to Aroldis Chapman last offseason, suggesting they’re willing to take some chances on talented but volatile relief pitching.

They’ll weigh the risk on Bednar alongside the need for multiple additions to a well below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great bullpen, though someone like Colin Holderman or waiver find Dennis Santana could get a closing opportunity if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.

It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He should be too talented to give up without getting anything in return. A sell-low trade is plausible. There are presumably teams that have more budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that would be happy to gamble something like $6.6MM on a return to form. That’d be a tough pill for a Pittsburgh front office that has surely declined much better offers over the years than the ones that’ll be on the table this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.