Since the league suspended luxury tax payments for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, 2024 technically marked the first time that the Astros exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Houston’s team-record $244MM payroll came with an approximate tax number of $262MM, thus putting the Astros over the second tier ($257MM) of tax penalties. The increased price tag could be viewed as the cost of keeping together a perpetual contender, and sure enough, the Astros again won the AL West in 2024 before being upset by the Tigers in the wild card round.
The Astros now enter the offseason with a lot of money still on the books. RosterResource’s projections have Houston at roughly a $215MM payroll and a $233.7MM tax number for 2025, putting the Astros just under the $241MM CBT threshold. A few million could be shaved off via non-tenders, yet a bigger move like re-signing Alex Bregman could alone bring Houston pretty close to its 2024 figures, even before the Astros addressed other roster needs.
Owner Jim Crane at least left the door open to spending at the same level and paying another tax bill, telling The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters that “We have the wherewithal to do it if we need to do it.” However, Crane added caveats by noting “it just depends on what players are available. It’s pretty evident what needs we have. We want to try and field the best team we can without going crazy….We run it like a business and we make good decisions.”
Even these measured comments might bring a little relief to Astros fans worried about how aggressive the team plans to be this winter. GM Dana Brown said last month that “we may have to get a little bit creative” in the roster plans, and it should be noted that Crane’s remarks don’t contradict Brown’s statement in any way — naturally, every team wants to be as efficient as possible in its spending.
Crane mentioned that “we have some money coming off the payroll next year,” which could provide a hint to Houston’s longer-term plans. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly, and Victor Caratini are all slated to hit free agency next offseason, and the Astros will also be free of the dead-money commitments still owed to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero. While retaining Tucker or Valdez is certainly on Houston’s radar, the Astros could conceivably be willing to re-sign Bregman or make another splashy move or two this offseason and take the one-year CBT hit with an eye towards perhaps resetting its tax status next winter once they get more salary relief.
Speaking of Bregman, Crane reiterated the team’s desire to retain the longtime third baseman. The team’s strategy is to let Brown handle the talks with Bregman’s agent Scott Boras, though Crane noted that he personally spoke with Boras “once early” in the offseason. Crane acknowledged that the Astros were also looking at potential Plan B options if Bregman did sign elsewhere, though that is common due diligence for any front office.
ThreePhones
Who in heck is Ryan Tucker?
numberoneslayerfan
well, at least he exists
vtadave
Barely.
This one belongs to the Reds
Translation: we are going to defer the crap out of money like the Dodgers got away with.
ThreePhones
One can only hope. Crane is probably praying team controllable talent emerges from these next few drafts.
The Ranger Fan
ThreePhones
I’ve wondered myself why teams haven’t been doing this as well, then I realized and found out, The player has to agree to do it, Ohtani is making that much is other deals so he was good with it, Lots of players in MLB couldn’t afford to put off being paid on a small percentage of their salary, Everyone wants it now. The Dodgers aren’t worried because the Japanese market is paying everything and dumping tons of sponsors to him and the team as well.
wayneroo
The didn’t “get away” with anything.
ThreePhones
As an Astros diehard, it’s time to retool. I’d trade both Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker, let Bregman walk and let Dana Brown really focus in on player development for a couple of years. That way, Altuve gets the final chapter of contention he deserves and you can still compete during the prime of Yordan..
Our spoiled entitled Astros fans would go bonkers, but it needs to be done. This current team (including Bregman) isn’t winning the West, much less a pennant. Perhaps they contend next season. However, without Framber or Tucker, the window immediately closes trying to contend with a minimal farm system.
holecamels35
They did pretty well considering they lost nearly an entire rotation for parts of the season and had to piece it together. Teams like them rarely need to rebuild, just need to keep at it and hit on a FA signing and a breakout young guy and they’re fine.
ThreePhones
Just so much dead money through next year and 18 million owed to McCullers in 2026. This previous front office (Crane not Bagwell) has shown an inability to identify talent correctly on the open market. My hope is Crane really does pull back and allow a real talent evaluator like Dana Brown to have free reign.
rolder
The current Astros team, including Bregman, can win the West. Might even be favorites.
ThreePhones
I hope we look back in 20-30 years and appreciate the 2025 divison title we won before we imploded into full rebuild mode.
C Yards Jeff
Back in June when the Stros’ record was underwater I thought, as did other posters, that this extended 8/9 + year run of success was finally coming to an end. Nobody to blame, but it was just time for a rebuild. And I thought Brown was playing “yes man” to Crane. And Crane was too involved.
Well, I guess I’m here to eat crow. Fast forward to now. Another winning season in the books. What a rebound!
Moving forward, if this owner says there are ways to keep his team competitive, I give him the benefit of the doubt.
differentbears
All that winning just to get swept at home by the Detroit Tigers.
rolder
Modern postseason baseball for you.
Pitching chaos worked great for the first short series of the post season. No way is that strategy sustainable over the entire postseason.
rolder
Yeah, kinda how I feel. Winning is going to be much harder come 2026.
Blackpink in the area
Yeah i do think time is running out for the Astros but 2025 can still be a good year. And they won 2 championships so it’s certainly been a success.
ssowl
There’s no guarantee they hit on the draft like they have in the past. They have a great lineup even without Bregman. If they can grab a 1B and 2 SP then they will be golden.
You got a few guys in their prime. I say go all in on 2025. Worst that can happen is you have 2 of the best trade candidates in MLB (Tucker/Framer).
astros_fan_84
They are favorites to win the AL West next year. That’s no time to retool. I’m not suggesting crazy spending, but they should go for it.
kevnames42
Great proofreading, Mark! I wonder what Ryan Tucker is up to these days
A'sfaninLondonUK
@ThreePhones
Even as an A’s fan, I’m struggling to see anyone beating the Astros to the AL West in 2025. My team might improve to 75 wins, the Angels might make it to 65. God alone knows what the Rangers will be able to a) afford for improvements and b) a rotation.
So at worst, it is a toss up between your teams hitting and the Mariners rotation. I agree the Astro’s window seems limited, but like @holecamels above I don’t see your situation as dire. Your core would – perhaps – entice Arenado to drop his NTC if you can’t bring back Bregman. Tell me, is the farm cupboard really that empty?
ThreePhones
Beyond Matthews, Yanek, Baez and Melton ehhh
Tom E. Snyder
The Astros farm team won the Triple-A National Championship.
ckc12537
“We run it like a business and we make good decisions.”
Abreu and Montero were good decisions? Not adding SP depth the last 2 offseasons has been a good decision?
thickiedon
The Montero contract wasn’t that incredulous at the time. He was coming off a dominant season
Footjoyboi
Astros had a couple meh games against the Tigers or they would’ve been in the ALCS for the 8th straight season and probably in the World Series. They are fine with their pitching staff of Frambie, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti and Garcia with a nice bullpen. And they’ve been doing well for the last 4 years with McCormick and Meyers taking up space and Pena sucking on offense. If they can find a couple okay fielding replacements they still have a pretty big window.
differentbears
They couldn’t beat the Tigers, who *sold* at the deadline. But if they somehow win two games (again, when they didn’t actually win one) they were also going to beat the Guardians and maybe even the Yankees?
differentbears
Breaking news: Astros offer Juan Soto a 13 year contract for 700 million wherewithals.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
They’re still favorites to win the division even if Bregman walks. The other teams are either heavily flawed or bad. Might as well spend while they have a chance
Wagner>Cobb
Imagine this team losing Bregman this year, as well as Tucker and Valdez next year. Catastrophic.
cwsOverhaul
Can see Tigers making Bregman its major FA acquisition while Hou sees Altuve/Yordan as its big dollar face of franchise guys to not get sucked in a Boras bidding war.
Wagner>Cobb
I don’t like the Bregman fit in Detroit, but I could see it as well.
Niekro floater
Pony-up stros got all that fat stadium naming rights loot to spend.
Nolf10
They should just focus their spending on adding more trashcans in the future
astros_fan_84
One good thing is that, even with the high payroll, they don’t have any truly long contracts. The farm might be suspicious, but they have a lot of payroll flexibility.