Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.