According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.
Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.
From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.
Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.
It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.
Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.
Angels are playing NE64 while everyone else is rocking a Switch
Phillies should trade Bryce Harper to the Yankees for some prospects.
Non tendering a pitcher going through TJ rehab is an absolute dog act. It should be banned in the next cba somehow. It happens regularly, and I shake my head every time. There’s got to be a better way than simply “see ya!’
NFL teams do it all the time with players on non-guaranteed contracts.
As a business decision, some teams don’t want to pay a guy for a year they wont pitch at all and only will maybe be good for the one more year of team control they’ll have. It’s not that surprising. Some team will offer him a deal though.
I get the “it’s business” thing. It’s still a dog act. Guys bust their bodies for the teams (well, some do) and when their elbows give out, the team is essentially giving the player a giant middle finger.
I’ve got a solution, maybe. After you’ve been on a 40 man for at least a year, and you get TJ, or any major surgery that’ll DL you for a year, all those players should get 2 years pay at the minimum as severance if they get non tendered, designated etc.
Those players should also be put on a special long term DL and not on the 40 man over the winter, so teams also wouldn’t have to free up 40 man spots by doing said dog act of non tendering a TJ player.
Eh, Sandoval’s biggest problem is he loses focus when things go against him. The dude unravels and dosent hide it. It’s still a bummer he’s gone, he’d make a good 3 if he could up his emotional control a bit
Lol only Angels fans know this about him. He’s an ace for 3 innings and then a harmless error turns into a 6 run parade. His metrics say he has some bad luck but I’d say he mentally can’t get through tough situations.
Sounds like Matz.
Doesn’t even have to be an error, the ump calling a perceived 3rd strike a ball and Sandy looses it.
Stay far away, Phillies!
He’s a perfect fit for sacramento
Mariners tried this pay for his TJ year and hope the 2nd year is worth it with Ken Giles. Remember him former closer figured why not? We got an excellent 4 1/3 innings for that 2 year deal.
It was a Cy young worthy 4 1/3 I’ll admit lol
I can see it. I think Sandoval is a decent mid rotation pitcher tbh.
@salzilla. He has the talent once he recovers. The problem is his temper, errors, and bad calls affect him. I think 2/22 Would be steep, especially since he might not pitch this year.
The gamble on Romano is enough. Not sure we need another longshot.
I hope my team is interested in Patrick Sandoval as much as I am interested in Hope Sandoval, though in a different way.
As alluded to by several commenters, Patrick has excellent stuff. He does not have the ability to absorb mistakes by his team, and he loses focus if the umpire squeezes him a little. He also tends to tease hitters when he is ahead in the count, 0-2, 1-2, thereby driving up his pitch count. A good sports psychologist or a coach Patrick would listen to would help him immensely—best of luck to Patrick.
von, I’ve never advocated blowing up and rebuilding the entire Phillies team. I just think the time has come to improve at a few positions if they want to compete for the NL east crown. The Phils need a centerfielder, left fielder and closer. They don’t need a single DH who cannot contribute defensively, and they will have to address their aging catcher situation sooner or later. I vote for sooner. So, the Phils can bring in Marchan and Painter, create a DH-by-committee, and add, through trades or free agency, a center fielder, left fielder and closer. The fix is really quite simple when you think about it. Schwarber and Realmuto have served admirably, but the time has come to move on from a scenario that hasn’t worked for the past 3 years and inject some new blood into the team.
They’re both gone next year. Problem solved.
von, Both Schwarber and Realmuto are still here for the 2025 season, and the Phils still haven’t materially improved their team. So, the problem won’t be solved for another season – a season in which pundits and fans will be trying to analyze the Phils and figure out ways to improve the team for the 2026 season. If I owned the Phillies, I wouldn’t settle for such a business model that procrastinated rather than immediately remedied their problems.
DD seems to be sitting on his hands so far. I don’t know if his plan is to wait out the problematic contracts and hope the prospects are ready to take their place and hope they get better results in the meantime or he’s just waiting to deal from the margins. Either way it probably doesn’t bode well for 2025.