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Mets’ Trade Talks With Padres Involve Nick Pivetta, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller

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The Mets and Padres have been discussing the possibility of a trade that would send established talent to New York while San Diego obtained MLB-ready younger talent and some salary relief.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin, and Will Sammon, right-hander Nick Pivetta, outfielder Ramon Laureano, and star relievers Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada are players of interest for New York.  The Padres have shown interest in the Mets’ “young major leaguers and all of their top prospects, both pitchers and position players,” including Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong.

The Athletic’s reporters made a point of noting that Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth weren’t brought up in these negotiations.  This only somewhat lessens the blockbuster potential here given all of the high-profile names already under discussion, though it is also possible that the talks remain somewhat exploratory in nature.  As Rosenthal/Lin/Sammon note, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is always “weighing a dizzying number of possible moves and contingency plans,” and Mets PBO David Stearns is likewise no stranger to major trade concepts.

Pivetta’s name surfaced in trade rumors earlier this week, and Preller recently downplayed the idea that the Padres would trade any of their top bullpen arms.  San Diego had an elite relief corps in 2025, but one major name from that group is already gone since closer Robert Suarez left for the Braves in free agency.  The depleted nature of the Friars’ rotation also puts more pressure on the bullpen to pick up more of the run-prevention slack, and by that same token, makes it seemingly less likely that the Padres would trade Pivetta and further diminish the starting staff.

That said, Pivetta can opt out of his contract following the 2026 season.  The backloaded four-year, $55MM contract Pivetta signed last season still has $51MM remaining, which breaks down as $19MM in 2026, a $14MM player option for 2027, and an $18MM player option for 2028 if Pivetta chooses to remain in San Diego next winter.  The 2027 player option turns into a club option in the event of a long-term injury, but if Pivetta has the same kind of healthy and very effective season that he posted in 2025, he’ll surely trigger his opt-out.

If Preller could turn Pivetta into multiple controllable players who can still help the Padres win in 2026, that would be quite a way of threading the needle for the long-time executive.  The Mets wouldn’t have much interest in giving up one of their top young talents for what might well be just one year of Pivetta’s services, and McLean might not be available at any price — the Athletic trio write that “McLean is thought to be untouchable, or close to it.”  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman adds that outfield prospect Carson Benge is also considered to be virtually unavailable in trade talks.

By comparison, the likes of Tong, Sproat, and Jett Williams may be more available, though Stearns has been naturally hesitant about trading away any top minor leaguers.  A trade package of Pivetta, Laureano as a short-term outfield add for 2026, and a reliever with four seasons of control like Miller or Estrada might well convince Stearns to part ways with some premium prospect talent, but on the other hand, that would be a lot for the Padres to move in a single trade.

The Athletic’s writers note that the Padres might get a greater overall return by sending Pivetta, Laureano, etc. elsewhere in individual deals, so it would take a gigantic trade package for the club to include multiple trade chips into a single swap.  For Miller in particular, San Diego would want a ton back, given how much the Padres had to give up to land the closer from the A’s just last July.

Getting Pivetta’s salary off the books is one way for the Padres to shake up the roster given the team’s limited payroll flexibility, while short-term commitments to Pivetta and Laureano probably hold more appeal to Stearns than signing free agents to longer-term contracts.  The sky is the limit when two creative executives like Preller and Stearns are cooking up trade scenarios, so this is certainly a situation worth monitoring as the offseason progresses.

Padres Listening To Offers On Nick Pivetta, Jake Cronenworth

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As the Padres continue to try to build a competitive roster with minimal payroll wiggle room, they’re at least entertaining offers on righty Nick Pivetta, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. They’re also listening on second baseman Jake Cronenworth, Lin writes, though the two are in different spots in terms of trade candidacy. Pivetta, despite an opt-out in his contract at season’s end, would presumably still be coveted by numerous clubs. Cronenworth, with five years and $60MM remaining on his contract as he heads into his age-32 season, has considerably less trade value. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote yesterday that San Diego isn’t merely listening but has been actively shopping Cronenworth.

The 32-year-old Pivetta (33 in January) is coming off a terrific season in which he logged a career-low 2.87 ERA over a career-high 181 2/3 innings. It was just the sort of season for which the Padres hoped when signing Pivetta to a four-year contract — a bet made on his durability and typically strong strikeout/walk rates. Pivetta had never posted an ERA under 4.00, but metrics like SIERA (3.78) and xFIP (3.92) liked him far better than the 4.33 ERA he’d posted across the four prior seasons.

San Diego found itself in a similar situation last winter to the one in which president of baseball operations A.J. Preller now resides. The team is still intent on going for it in a competitive NL West division, but payroll has been reduced since the untimely passing of late owner Peter Seidler back in 2023. Preller & Co. drew up a four-year, $55MM deal for Pivetta that paid him just $4MM in year on ($3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary) and then jumped to $19MM in 2026, $14MM in 2027 and $18MM in 2028. Pivetta also has the right to opt out of the final two years and $32MM on his contract following the current season. That seems like all but a given, provided he’s still healthy and even reasonably effective.

That unique contract structure complicates trade scenarios surrounding Pivetta. While he’s sure to command interest, teams will view him more as a one-year rental than as a long-term pickup. They’ll also need to price in the downside of Pivetta potentially sustaining a serious injury and/or performing so poorly that he forgoes that opt-out opportunity and thus saddles them with an unwanted two-year, $32MM commitment. Pivetta could probably still bring back a prospect or lower-cost big leaguer of some note, but the return wouldn’t be as strong as many might think for a sixth-place Cy Young finisher who is technically signed for three more affordable seasons.

All of that makes the trade calculus surrounding Pivetta more difficult for Preller and his staff. The Friars are hoping to add to their rotation, not subtract from it. Trading Pivetta for a strong return and reallocating the $19MM he’ll make this coming season sounds good in theory but would be harder to execute in practice. Perhaps a team with more financial flexibility would acquire Pivetta with an eye toward restructuring his contract (extending him but also removing the opt-out opportunities), though that’s a purely speculative scenario and not one that is typical throughout MLB as a whole.

With regard to Cronenworth, he’s coming off a productive season, but his contract is still generally underwater. The lefty-swinging infielder hit .246/.367/.377 in 2025, with the bulk of his offensive value coming via a career-high 13.4% walk rate and a whopping 15 hit-by-pitches, both of which inflated his on-base percentage to career-best levels. On a rate basis, Cronenworth’s power was at the lowest point of his career, however (.131 ISO). Statcast pegged his “expected” batting average at .227 and his “expected” slugging percentage at just .348.

Cronenworth’s versatility is a point in his favor, but he’s primarily played second base and first base — two positions that typically aren’t compensated especially well on the modern MLB market (with the exception of the game’s truly elite bats at either position). It’s feasible that Cronenworth could command something similar to his $12MM annual value if he were a free agent right now, but it certainly wouldn’t come over a five-year term. He’d be limited to a much shorter contract on the open market, and teams will price that into any trade offers. In all likelihood, San Diego would need to pay down a fair bit of Cronenworth’s contract or take back another unwelcome contract.

Broadly speaking, the circumstances surrounding both players serve as a portent for the type of moves the Padres will have to explore this offseason. Preller is always one of the most frenetic baseball operations leaders in the game, and his need to address multiple roster holes — two starters, at least one bat, perhaps some help at catcher — with minimal payroll flexibility amid a changing ownership landscape suggest that we’re in for another slate of creative, difficult-to-predict transactions for the Padres in the weeks ahead.

Paul Skenes Wins NL Cy Young Award

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Paul Skenes has won his first career Cy Young award. The Pirates righty is named the National League’s best pitcher one year after winning Rookie of the Year and finishing third in Cy Young balloting. He beat out Cristopher Sánchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the honors. The vote was unanimous, as he received all 30 first-place votes. Sánchez was second on every ballot, so it wasn’t until third that voters began to diverge.

Skenes is the third pitcher in franchise history to win the Cy Young, joining Vernon Law (1960) and Doug Drabek (1990). He turned in an MLB-best 1.97 earned run average over his first full season in the big leagues. He’d posted a 1.96 mark across 23 starts as a rookie. He’s the only starting pitcher in the majors with a sub-2.00 ERA over the past two seasons. Skenes ranked fourth in the NL with 187 2/3 innings pitched and tied Jesús Luzardo for second with 216 strikeouts.

Only Logan Webb recorded more strikeouts. Skenes ranked fifth in strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) and third behind Webb and Sánchez with 20 quality starts. He led the Senior Circuit with a 2.36 FIP and placed fifth with a 3.10 SIERA. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each had him in essentially a dead heat with Sánchez for the Wins Above Replacement lead.

The 2023 first overall pick is widely considered one of the two best pitchers in the sport. There’s a fair debate between him and two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, but they’re almost certainly 1-2 in some order. Fans of other teams may dream about prying Skenes out of Pittsburgh, but that’s not happening anytime soon. General manager Ben Cherington stated in no uncertain terms yesterday that their ace would remain a Pirate in 2026. He’s under club control for another four seasons, and while a trade may be in the cards down the line, the immediate focus for player and team is getting the Bucs to the postseason. Skenes is the most important player on a team trying to break a decade-long playoff drought.

Sánchez had a breakout season to establish himself as a true ace for the Phillies. He fired 202 innings of 2.50 ERA ball across 32 starts. He finished fourth in the NL with 212 strikeouts. Sánchez had been a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter between 2023-24, earning a top 10 Cy Young finish in the second of those seasons. This was his first time posting a sub-3.00 ERA or topping 200 innings and strikeouts, so he certainly leveled up in his age-28 season. He’s signed through 2028 and under control through ’30 via a pair of club options on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

Yamamoto’s World Series heroics weren’t a factor in the voting, which takes place at the end of the regular season. He earned his first All-Star nod and first Cy Young votes by turning in a 2.49 ERA across 30 starts. Yamamoto managed 201 strikeouts across 173 2/3 innings while leading the NL with fewer than six hits allowed per nine innings. Yamamoto had flashed ace potential in his first MLB season, but he was limited to 18 starts by a rotator cuff strain in 2024. He showed what he’s capable of in a full season in year two, and the Dodgers have won consecutive World Series in the first two seasons of his record-setting $325MM free agent contract.

Just over half of voters placed Yamamoto third. Webb received 10 third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Freddy Peralta picked up the four remaining third-place nods and landed in fifth place. Skenes and Sánchez were the only pitchers who appeared on every ballot. Nick Pivetta, Jesús Luzardo, Andrew Abbott and Zack Wheeler also received votes.

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images. Full vote tally available courtesy of BBWAA.

Poll: Should Nick Pivetta’s Hot Start Be Believed?

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Right-hander Nick Pivetta languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a four-year, $55MM pact that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta undergoing significant elbow surgery. That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldn’t have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who passed on him look foolish.

In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 30 frames. He’s struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together across a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston brass to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veteran’s long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego?

The possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. After all, Pivetta’s success has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NL’s best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scoreless innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and it’s hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year.

With that being said, there hasn’t been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivetta’s 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last year’s figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance won’t continue, as are Pivetta’s .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio.

All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivetta’s career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivetta’s HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the righty’s primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivetta’s home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been what’s held Pivetta back throughout his career, but he’s allowed just one home run in his first five starts.

While this year’s level of home run suppression is all but impossible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest he’s posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and he’s currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and it’s not hard to see why Pivetta’s allowing less home runs than ever. Regression back to the mean must be expected, but there’s at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work.

On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Pivetta’s career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta.

Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Nick Pivetta finish the year?
Pivetta will continue to dominate and enjoy the best season of his career in 2025. 53.18% (1,287 votes)
Pivetta will regress to the mean and post a season similar to those he posted from 2021 to 2024. 46.82% (1,133 votes)
Total Votes: 2,420

Details On Nick Pivetta’s Contract With Padres

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The Padres signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year earlier this week. Previous reporting had revealed that it was a four-year, $55MM deal, though heavily backloaded. Pivetta will receive a $3MM signing bonus, then make a salary of just $1MM this year, followed by salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the next three years. He has the opportunity to opt out after the second and third years of the deal. Yesterday, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press provided some new details that had not been previously reported.

The new details revolve around contingencies for the Padres if Pivetta gets injured. Pivetta’s $14MM salary in 2027 becomes a club option “if at any point through 2026 he has a specified injury or surgery related to the injury and is on the injured list for more than 130 consecutive days in any season or in a one-year period.” Blum mentions that Pivetta spent time on the injured list in 2024 due to a right elbow flexor strain, implying that the contract provision relates to a significant elbow surgery.

If the Padres turn down the option, Pivetta would head back to free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. At that point, he will have made $23MM over the first two years of the deal. If those injury conditions are not met, then Pivetta will have a $14MM player option and $18MM player option for 2027 and 2028.

The Friars can also trigger a 2029 club option for 2029, valued at just $5MM, “if Pivetta has the specified injury or surgery related to the specified injury and goes on the injured list for more than 130 consecutive days in any season or in a one-year period, all occurring from July 1, 2026, through the 2028 season.”

It seems the Padres have built in some cover for themselves if Pivetta needs to miss significant time, likely due to Tommy John surgery or a similar procedure. A major elbow surgery usually requires a player to miss 14 months or more, which can be a big sunk cost for a club’s payroll. The Padres have been dealing with notable financial restraints in recent years, so that’s perhaps even more so for them. With these contract provisions, they have a few options in the event Pivetta does get hurt.

At the end of 2026, they can walk away if Pivetta is slated to miss a decent chunk of the next year or two. If he sticks around but then suffers a major injury in the latter half of the deal, the 2029 option gives them a chance to add an extra year of control at a bargain rate.

MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Sign Nick Pivetta

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Feb. 17: Pivetta passed his physical and has reported to Padres camp. The team has formally announced his four-year contract.

Feb. 12: The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two openings on their 40-man roster.

Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.

The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.

Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.

A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.

Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.

However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issues keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.

Pivetta slots fourth on Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.

That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.

Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.

While ownership may simply be willing to live with that relatively small tax bill, the front office could consider payroll-clearing trades in the coming weeks. Cease, who has a $13.75MM tax number himself for his final arbitration season, has been in trade rumors all offseason. King ($7.75MM) has been the subject of lesser trade chatter, while Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been speculated about. Trading Cease or King would again raise questions about the rotation’s stability, though any such deal would almost certainly include at least one affordable MLB rotation piece in the return package.

The money isn’t the only cost for San Diego. They’ll surrender their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their 2026 bonus pool for international amateurs, because Pivetta had declined the qualifying offer. The Red Sox get a compensation pick in the ’25 draft, which will land 77th overall.

Pivetta winds up being the only free agent starter of this offseason to sign a four-year deal. Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino each signed for three years but pulled higher annual values. All but Wacha landed a larger overall guarantee. Severino and Manaea had also declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City just before QO decisions were due. Pivetta will collect $23MM over the next two seasons. His opt-out decisions will come when there are two years at $32MM and (if he doesn’t take the first out) one year at $18MM remaining.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report the signing and the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Where Will Nick Pivetta Sign?

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Nick Pivetta is the top unsigned starting pitcher. He’s one of two remaining free agents, alongside Alex Bregman, who received a qualifying offer in early November. (Pete Alonso has also yet to officially sign his two-year agreement to return to the Mets.) Pivetta was a slightly surprising QO recipient, but the move paid off for the Red Sox when the righty declined the offer.

That ensures that the Sox will get a compensatory draft choice between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round — likely 77th overall. Pivetta initially looked like he’d be a beneficiary of the robust starting pitching market that was present early in the offseason. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote around the time of the QO decisions that Pivetta would receive interest on at least a three-year deal.

It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino each got three years and upwards of $60MM. The Royals signed Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51MM extension on the eve of free agency. Manaea and Severino had declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have gotten one as well had they not agreed to the multi-year deal. Pivetta could have pursued something similar to the three-year, $67MM guarantee that Severino pulled from the A’s.

The 31-year-old Pivetta (32 later this week) was an innings eater in the middle of the Boston rotation for the past few seasons. He struggled early in the 2023 campaign and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he excelled late in the year to earn his way back to the starting five. He took the ball 27 times last season, working to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings. Pivetta missed some time early in the year with a flexor strain. That was the first non-virus injured list stint of his MLB career, though, and he returned without issue by the middle of May.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season. His run prevention has landed in the low 4.00s in consecutive years, and he carries a 4.09 mark in 288 1/3 frames since the start of 2023. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk rates have always been more intriguing than the ERA might suggest. He has punched out 30% of opponents with a solid 7.3% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by Pivetta’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in all seven seasons of his MLB career.

There’s value in the durability and solid run prevention marks that Pivetta has provided the Red Sox. His camp presumably marketed him as an upside play based on the swing-and-miss stuff. A move out of the AL East and/or to a pitcher-friendly home park could position him for a step forward as a strong #3 starter.

It’s unclear whether the market has ever materialized to the extent that he envisioned when he declined the QO. There haven’t been a ton of publicly reported ties. The Canada native was linked to the Blue Jays before they signed Max Scherzer; Toronto GM Ross Atkins said last week that any additional rotation acquisitions were likely to be pure depth adds.

Pivetta was one of a number of rotation candidates tied to the Mets at the Winter Meetings. They’ve since re-signed Manaea and had already brought in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to slot into the rotation. They arguably still need a finishing piece, but they should probably aim for a legitimate #1 starter on the trade market. The Reds were the only other team firmly tied to Pivetta this offseason. Cincinnati has since seemingly pushed their payroll near ownership’s ceiling. President of baseball operations Nick Krall downplayed the likelihood of any more moves of note a couple weeks back.

It’s hard to envision Pivetta securing a Severino-type deal at this stage. Many teams have pushed their budgets as far as they’re willing to go. Players who sign early tend to fare better than those who linger into late January and potentially into Spring Training. This offseason has been no exception. Alonso and Jack Flaherty have each turned to short-term deals after starting out with much loftier asks. The QO also remains an impediment. Teams would still need to relinquish draft capital and potentially 2026 international pool money (depending on their luxury tax status) to add Pivetta. That’s not the case for the other unsigned starters (e.g. Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney).

Which club is most likely to swoop in late to add Pivetta? Weigh in below.

Which Team Will Sign Nick Pivetta?
Red Sox 17.59% (2,008 votes)
Braves 7.58% (865 votes)
Angels 7.30% (833 votes)
Orioles 6.44% (735 votes)
A's 5.47% (625 votes)
Blue Jays 5.38% (614 votes)
Mets 5.09% (581 votes)
Padres 4.90% (560 votes)
Cubs 3.55% (405 votes)
Giants 3.49% (399 votes)
Dodgers 2.82% (322 votes)
Reds 2.47% (282 votes)
Guardians 2.36% (269 votes)
Brewers 2.17% (248 votes)
Pirates 2.08% (237 votes)
Cardinals 1.96% (224 votes)
Tigers 1.94% (221 votes)
White Sox 1.93% (220 votes)
Twins 1.85% (211 votes)
Nationals 1.80% (206 votes)
Phillies 1.53% (175 votes)
Rangers 1.45% (165 votes)
Royals 1.36% (155 votes)
Yankees 1.33% (152 votes)
Astros 1.21% (138 votes)
Marlins 1.16% (133 votes)
Rays 1.06% (121 votes)
Mariners 1.04% (119 votes)
Rockies 1.04% (119 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.67% (76 votes)
Total Votes: 11,418

 

Mets Have Shown Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Mets are among the teams that have spoken with the Padres regarding Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported this afternoon that the Cubs were also involved on the star righty.

Cease is one of the biggest names to watch over the next six weeks. San Diego has fielded interest in virtually all of their highly-priced players who could test free agency next offseason (e.g. Cease, Luis Arraez, Michael King, Robert Suarez). Every contender could be involved on Cease, who is coming off a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting.

If he does move, it’d be the second straight winter in which Cease is dealt late in the offseason. The Padres acquired him from the White Sox midway through Spring Training last year. His first season with the Friars was excellent. He worked to a 3.47 ERA while striking out 224 batters over 189 1/3 innings. Cease has not missed a start since 2019. He has topped 200 strikeouts in four straight seasons and has two top five Cy Young finishes in the past three years.

San Diego has had a quiet winter as they navigate payroll restrictions and squabbling amongst their ownership group. The Padres only have three pitchers who’d be locked into their season-opening rotation: Cease, King and Yu Darvish. Trading either Cease or King would subtract from the rotation’s ceiling, but it stands to reason they’d demand at least one cheaper MLB-ready starting pitcher as part of the return. San Diego also needs to find a new left fielder after letting Jurickson Profar walk in free agency.

Last year’s Corbin Burnes trade serves as a template for what the Friars could demand for Cease. The Brewers netted two MLB-ready players who’d been borderline top 100 prospects (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall), plus the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft, from the Orioles. Cease is slated for a $13.75MM salary in his final year of arbitration. While the Padres do not expect to work out a long-term deal with the Boras Corporation client, they’re trying to balance their long-term outlook against the goal of returning to the postseason this year.

Heyman suggests that the Padres could subsequently look to sign Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta if they deal Cease or King. That’d require an unexpected willingness to stretch the budget. Even if they look to short-term deals, Flaherty and Pivetta should each beat $13.75MM annually. Pivetta would also require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. That series of events would raise payroll and still leave San Diego with a hole in left field unless they address that via the hypothetical Cease trade.

The Mets have been reluctant to make long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations David Stearns. They’ve addressed the rotation with a series of shorter-term moves. They brought back Sean Manaea for three years and (a partially deferred) $75MM, added reliever conversion pickup Clay Holmes on a three-year deal, and taken a two-year flier on Frankie Montas. That trio joins Kodai Senga and David Peterson in their projected starting five. Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning are depth options. It’s not a bad group but lacks a true ace, especially if Senga’s workload is limited after he barely pitched in 2024.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Nick Pivetta

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The Blue Jays are involved in the market for Nick Pivetta, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re one of a handful of teams that has been linked to the 6’5″ righty. The Reds, Mets and incumbent Red Sox have also been linked to Pivetta this offseason.

Pivetta, who is a native of British Columbia, is one of the better unsigned starting pitchers. He’s one of three pitchers — alongside Corbin Burnes and Sean Manaea — who remain free agents after declining the qualifying offer. There was some surprise that the Red Sox risked the $21.05MM QO, but that proved a prescient decision in what has been a bullish market for starting pitching.

The 31-year-old (32 in February) has been an innings eater in the middle of the Boston rotation for the past few seasons. Pivetta struggled early in the 2023 campaign and was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he excelled late in the year to earn his way back to the starting five. He took the ball 27 times this past season, working to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings. Pivetta missed some time early in the year with a flexor strain. That was the first non-virus injured list stint of his MLB career, though, and he returned without issue by the middle of May.

Pivetta has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season. His run prevention has landed in the low 4.00s in consecutive seasons, and he carries a 4.09 mark in 288 1/3 frames since the start of 2023. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk rates have always been more intriguing than the ERA might suggest. He has punched out 30% of opponents with a solid 7.3% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by Pivetta’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed a higher than average home run rate in all seven seasons of his MLB career.

There’s value in the durability and solid run prevention marks that Pivetta has provided the Red Sox. Some teams could still view him as a potential #2 or high-end #3 starter based on the stuff and swing-and-miss ability, feeling they can make some tweaks to help him more effectively stay off barrels. Speculatively speaking, his camp could look to beat the three years and $67MM which Luis Severino recently secured from the Athletics.

The Jays have shown some level of interest in virtually every free agent of note. They’ve yet to pull off an especially significant free agent move. Their only signing is a two-year, $15MM deal to bring back reliever Yimi García. Toronto took on the final five years and $97.5MM on Andrés Giménez’s contract via trade with the Guardians at the Winter Meetings. That’s a significant expenditure, but the front office surely continues to juggle multiple free agent pursuits.

Toronto is among the three teams (alongside Boston and San Francisco) most frequently mentioned as landing spots for Burnes. They’re certainly not going to bring in Burnes and Pivetta, so the latter is potentially a fallback target who’d allow them to devote more money into one or two lineup upgrades. The Jays have looked for a starter to join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis in the Opening Day rotation. That’d allow them to use Yariel Rodríguez in relief, indirectly upgrading a bullpen that remains a huge weakness despite the García pickup.

The Blue Jays are believed to have cut their payroll narrowly below the luxury tax threshold at the end of the ’24 season. That reduces the penalty they’d pay to sign Pivetta or any other free agent who rejected the QO. Toronto would forfeit its second-highest pick of the 2025 draft plus $500K from the ’26 bonus allotment for international amateur players.

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