The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.
The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.
It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.
Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.
May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.
There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.
It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.
Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:
Other: someone who “only” is an All-Star with $190m deferred in Yen until 2084
“at the start of the season”
I think people forget Gonsolin in his last full non injury season had an ERA of around 2.00 and lost only one game all season. He would have started the All Star game had it not been for Kershaw getting a nostalgic nod because the game was in LA. Gonsolin, if healthy, can be a cy young candidate.
Those tears taste so good. Tell your cheap owner to spend money.
Cheap owner, spend money.
“The Dodgers are operating within the rules of MLB” – Major League baseball commissioner Rob Manfred.
ok and they are?
And what would you expect him to say?
CC Ryder:…since he’s being paid by the owners and wants to keep his job.
There’s still a few starters available, Quintana and Gibson come to mind. I joke, but they’ll sign another guy lol
What’s interesting is, they had to know they were a virtual locks to sign Roki. So signing Snell was a 60m a year over kill to there rotation after taxes. Must be nice,but money not well spent. There fans like it though, so screw it.they have the money to over spend on what would be the same result.
Other: Who cares? With the first four starters and the caliber of talent throughout the roster they will win the division, National League, World Series regardless of who they run out there for the fifth starter. Four or five starts early in the season won’t make much of a difference
They better win it all, otherwise it’s going down as THEE most disappointing season EVAR!!!
“Thee most disappointing”..Even for a loaded team, the odds of a Dodgers repeat are highly against it.
The best team in April most often doesn’t win the World Series, because baseball is the kind of game where playing well and making the key plays can trump sheer talent.
There’s a reason there’s very few repeats in baseball history. Besides, when you’re already coming off a title last year, fans are not as “disappointed” this year when you come up short.
Most uneducated comment of the day. Learn about baseball.
Gwynning …. probably not as disappointing as San Diego’s 2023 season.
Ouch B-ruin! Haha
Repeat Champions:
1998-2000 Yankees (three straight World Series wins)
1998: Yankees defeat Padres, 4-0
1999: Yankees defeat Braves, 4-0
2000: Yankees defeat Mets, 4-1
1992-93 Blue Jays
1992: Blue Jays defeat Braves, 4-2
1993: Blue Jays defeat Phillies, 4-2
1977-78 Yankees
1977: Yankees defeat Dodgers, 4-2
1978: Yankees defeat Dodgers, 4-2
1975-76 Reds
1975: Reds defeat Red Sox, 4-3
1976: Reds defeat Yankees, 4-0
1972-74 A’s (three straight World Series wins)
1972: A’s defeat Reds, 4-3
1973: A’s defeat Mets, 4-3
1974: A’s defeat Dodgers, 4-1
1961-62 Yankees
1961: Yankees defeat Reds, 4-1
1962: Yankees defeat Giants, 4-3
1949-53 Yankees (five straight World Series wins)
1949: Yankees defeat Dodgers, 4-1
1950: Yankees defeat Phillies, 4-0
1951: Yankees defeat Giants, 4-2
1952: Yankees defeat Dodgers, 4-3
1953: Yankees defeat Dodgers, 4-2
1936-39 Yankees (four straight World Series wins)
1936: Yankees defeat Giants, 4-2
1937: Yankees defeat Giants, 4-1
1938: Yankees defeat Cubs, 4-0
1939: Yankees defeat Reds, 4-0
1929-30 A’s
1929: A’s defeat Cubs, 4-1
1930: A’s defeat Cardinals, 4-2
1927-28 Yankees
1927: Yankees defeat Pirates, 4-0
1928: Yankees defeat Cardinals, 4-0
1921-22 Giants
1921: Giants defeat Yankees, 5-3
1922: Giants defeat Yankees, 4-0-1
1915-16 Red Sox
Red Sox defeat Phillies, 4-1
Red Sox defeat Robins, 4-1
1910-11 A’s
1910: A’s defeat Cubs, 4-1
1911: A’s defeat Giants, 4-2
1907-08 Cubs
1907: Cubs defeat Tigers, 4-0-1
1908: Cubs defeat Tigers, 4-1
What.. Kent Tekulve isn’t available?
Rumors are that Kent Bottenfield is the next man up
Kent Bottenfield. Traded by the Cardinals straight up for Jim Edmunds. Now that was a trade.
Adam Kennedy was also part of that trade, and he hit three home runs in the clinching game to go to the World Series in 2002.
@J.H.
You’re right. I forgot all about Kennedy. I’d still make that trade again.
I don’t think either team would hesitate to make that trade again, knowing how it all played out!
Gonsolin with May in the bullpen. Gonsolin gets optioned when room is needed and May is up as long as he is healthy since he’s out of options.
As much as I would rather it be May, this makes the most sense. And if Gonsolin’s starts are shorter, May can be an excellent option for giving them 3 innings those days.
@top
“Gonsolin gets optioned when room is needed”
If Tony returns to form and is lights out in the early going option or no option he goes nowhere.
@bivouac not necessarily true. They will eventually need room for Ohtani and Kershaw.
They could play the IL carousel but that option is highly valuable to the team considering that many of the bullpen guys can’t be optioned either.
We’ll see.
I mean yes if Tony is lights out they have to find a way to keep him, but at this point he is the most likely to get sent down if they need to send one down. At some point there will be in juries though so it may not come to that.
agreed
Yeah, there will definitely be injuries, rest and a six man rotation. Good problem to have.
Gonsolin can’t be optioned after 20 days in MLB. They might stash him in AAA till they really need him. One or both of these guys will be traded or dfa’d this year. Which is crazy cause they are both good.
Assuming that 20 days is correct, after April 6 NO OPTION FOR YOU!
(Soup Nazi Voice)
I’m not sure where you got that information. My understanding is that option years aren’t calculated like that and he is at 4.152 years service time, but I don’t know all the intricacies of option year calculations.
At 5 years of service time you still have options remaining, but you also gain the right to refuse being optioned or outrighted.
@Top
The article above says: “Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season ” (meaning enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment).
May will not like the bullpen option if he is healthy and ready to go. He will be a free agent at the end of this year, so he has massive financial implications to worry about. He has a career 3,10 ERA and 1.049 WHIP, and only 27. 20-25 starts with similar results this year could net him a big 7 year contract.
He already has a track record of not being able to stay on the field and has peaked at 56 MLB innings in 2020.
There are plenty of recent examples of teams giving FA relievers the opportunity to start so I don’t think the financial incentives will be that much different between a full season in the bullpen and whatever limited innings he could provide from the rotation. He’s likely to have some starts either way.
There’s absolutely no way he would get a seven year contract with just one healthy year.
Numbers can be very deceptive.
2019: Called up in August, made 12 appearances
2020: Made 12 appearance is short season
2021: Made 5 starts before UCL injury
2022: Returned from TJ in August and made 6 starts after 6 more on minor league rehab assignments
2023: Made 9 starts before requiring TJ revision in July
2024: Set to return late season when he suffered perforated esophagus
No, he isn’t getting any long-term contracts in free agency after this year, but teams are going to look much more closely at his performance this year than they will at his “peak innings.”
Yeah, his “peak innings” came in 2019 when he pitched 141.1 between the majors and minors. He cleared 130 the two years prior but has been nowhere close since.
The only year deceptive there is 2020, but the rest show a pattern of injury.
I stand by my disagreement that he will get a big seven year contract no matter how big of a season he puts up.
Actually, it shows one injury, the TJ plus the revision, each of which were midseason injuries that wiped out parts of two seasons. That’s why the numbers are so deceptive. Unless you think he’s prone to a torn esophagus. If so, that would require an interesting medical theory. If not, then you have to discard it as part of any pattern of injury.
Note, I was not disagreeing with your idea that he won’t get a long-term contract. In fact, I agreed with it, but my reasoning behind it is different. More immediately, if he can show well for the first few months of the season he might well be traded and fetch a high-level prospect or two.
I understand what you’re saying, but it’s kind of like “other than the two major injuries, he hasn’t been injured that much.”
Maybe it was a botched surgery the first time, maybe it was due to his mechanics, maybe something else.
I did check his IL log and was surprised to see inly one 15 day stint unrelated to his right arm—lower back—but the fact remains that he has essentially missed two full seasons due to injury. Hopefully it isn’t chronic.
Well, chronic is what you worry about, but only medicine can really tell that story. Most injuries are random events (bad luck), but it’s human to try to connect random events into some sort of pattern. I’m always hearing about players who run into outfield walls or get hit by pitches having “injury histories.” Technically true, but random events don’t tell you anything about the future.
Fire Manfred!
the Dodgers could never disappoint me
Stay tuned, pal. 🙂
Waiting for another 111-51 only to lose to their division rival’s lowly 89-73 record.
“Only to lose to their division rival”…Apparently, you missed October 2024. The Dodgers just won the World Series you know.
@ Gwynning
Ah Spring, when everyone is winner. Even the Friars.
Your begging for dodgers disappointment is sad.
What can you do? They are the standard the others measure themselves by.
Proving all the Padres fan stereotypes right.
Lol, enjoy the Spring festivities amigos!
I’m a Rangers fan.
There’s just as good chance with the Dodger injury prone pitchers that any of these guys could be their opening day starter.
But my mid-market schadenfreude just wants every single one of them to be completely healthy and available and complaining from Day 1.
The epitome of ‘nice problem to have’.
So far, its going to be Miller. They are reporting that Miller’s speed has returned and apparently Blake Snell has taken him under his wing. If Miller can deliver a ’23 performance…. geez
Tommy John will be the fifth starter
What kind of weirdo happily predicts injury???.
Dumb comment loser.
I think he’s talking about the human being….
I honestly would’ve preferred the undergarment brand.
Haha you I BET I touched a NERVE with you hahahaha
You just made yourself look like a homer who wants injury to a team he’s jealous of. Grow up
You I never once said I wanted anyone injured. I was making a joke that the Dodgers pitchers have had lots of injuries. But since you are projecting, I BET you want injuries?
@YJMTU: “You just made…”
Are we speaking in third person now?
YouJustMadeThatUp sounds alot like BITA… have we a new account, Joel?!?!
No matter how much the Dodgers spend the way the ‘October tournament’ is set up they will have no better than a 30% chance of winning the World Series. They won’t be playing the Rockies or Marlins in October!
nope, they’ll be playing the likes of the Padres, Mets, and Yankees — all of whom they managed to beat en route to winning the World Series this past year.
(But no I don’t think you have to tell them twice, that nothing is guaranteed and anyone can win the series once in the playoffs.)
Going with the dark horse Miller, if only because we’ve seen his ability, and this spring he’s being mentored by Blake Snell, who says he sees a lot of himself in Miller. If Snell can help Miller develop the big-league mentality he needs to complete the package, he could be the big surprise of spring training.
As for Gonsolin and May, if they have had only “cups of coffee” in the majors, at 375 and 191 innings, respectively, they must have been grande lattes.
Miller has the ability, just needs to fix something mechanically because his stuff got hit a lot harder last year. But he’s young and has the stuff. Gonsolin has checkered injury history but has proven himself a reliable starter when healthy so he was my pick here. Almost none of the options would surprise me and as this MLBTR article notes the odds are they’ll use quite a few of these guys during the season.
Casparius really impressed me (in more of a “cup of coffee” type call up late last year), tho will be curious to see if he can go more than a few innings. Otherwise he could battle May for a relief role (or fill in for May when he invariably gets injured). They have lots of talented options and don’t need to pay some veteran to step in given all the other depth.
Now back to everyone else’s regularly scheduled hilarious AI-generated jokes about deferrals, buying championships, no guarantees, blah blah yadda
What, there are no guarantees in baseball?
Miller goes off his game when he gets hit or falls behind. A pitcher’s most challenging mental game is erasing that last pitch from your mind and making the next one count. This is where Snell sees himself in Miller, and he is trying to help him work out.
If you’re going to a six man when Ohtani is ready, and the pitchers most likely competing for the fifth spot are both coming off a lost year due to injury, why not start with a six man rotation and use them both? That way when Ohtani is ready the four main starters are used to the six man rotation and you have the flexibility of an “extra” starter.
It’s because they have every Thursday off for like 5 or 6 weeks to start the season… they want them pitching every 6th day, which doesn’t work out to every 6th game when you have off days.
So essentially they will be used to pitching every 6th day….and then the off days will happen less and 6 starters will be needed.
I suspect it has something to do with the schedule. They have five off days on the calendar in April and four in May. Also, going with five starters doesn’t necessarily mean a strictly five-man rotation. Throw a couple of bullpen games into the mix, and they can get through the end of May without a sixth starter.
they are capped with a 13 man pitching staff until ohtani is ready to go. they want to keep an 8 man bullpen
May is FA at end of year and they have no reason to sign him because they won’t have a slot in rotation (assuming no TJs).
Gonsolin has an option and an Arb year so, might as well stash him for as long as you can (meaning someone else is doing ok), and depress his Arb value for 26.
Use up May for all you can get – lights out when healthy concept – then cut him loose. If he performs and stays healthy he is a Met (or similar team) in ‘26.
The other guys are all extras for ‘26 with Gonsolin a lock for rotation (if not injured) and all 5 slots are filled. If they want a sixth, all of those other names will fill it.
May because he’s out of options and Gonsolin has one more
Kike Hernandez
Fraggle Rock May is my best guess.
I vote Ricky Bottalico or Teddy Higuera
They are lying. Four man rotation and bullpen day every 5th day. They like the unpredictability …
I’m all for a daily dodgers article. Remind these looser haters who are the champs
Dustin May is in his walk year. They start with May and flip him for prospects before the deadline.
Dodgers don’t need Kutter Crawford.
Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki, Gonsolin, May and a bit later Ohtani, Kershaw. Thanks for your concern.
I wouldn’t want to pay for a dodgers ticket to see a d game starter. More interested in seeing ohtani, Sasaki or Kershaw start.
Snell, Yamamoto, and Glasnow are now D game starters? Good god. Listen to yourself dude.
Snell & glasnow is probably b game starters with their injuries. I’m saying why pay top dollar ticket to see the d crew when they charge admission for their a game.
I went to the poll looking for “Who Cares”
@redsfan
You don’t care so much you had to let us all know with a post. So appreciated.
Welcome!
Dustin May will be on another team by the all star break
If all goes to plan, this is pretty likely.
I can’t think of anyone. Probably best to just go with a 4-man rotation.
Miller’s got a great future. He’s also got options. It’s simply a numbers game. Barring injuries to the list above I think Miller starts the season in OKC. As to which pitcher will be ready on opening day, Yamamoto is slated to be on the hill March 18 in Tokyo.
Miller won’t be a gamble for the Red Sox because he’s not going to the Red Sox.
Don’t know, don’t care. I hope Roki Sasaki loses 20+ games.
@Yucki
Another “don’t care” who has to post about how much it doesn’t care.
Such a loving, intelligent person you are. No sour grapes in your bowl.
Too bad you’re not a fan of the game.
Continuous incel energy.
They won’t have a single starter that loses half that many
The best rotation in the game.
It does not matter who starts as the #5 pitcher—they are using 12+ starters this year anyway. The Rangers will take the AL, the Mets will take the NL, and Texas will win it all in six. Mark my words.
Amen!
The Mets aren’t talking anything with their rotation.
Thanks for this. It had been at least a day and a half since the last Dodgers thread and withdrawal symptoms were starting.
Assuming their top 4 starters are healthy (big assumption), myguess would be May. He’s a free agent after this season, and having him start builds up trade value. When Kershaw comes back, unless another pitcher goes to the IL, they’d have to move him out of the rotation and can’t option him, so they could trade him and both get prospects and keep him away from a divsiion/league rival. Gonsolin having that option for 20 games might see him start the season in AAA or start in the bullpen, with Phillips and Kopech out early.
If they stay healthy, that is a sick front 4, with Ohtani making it a sicker 5.
However, I feel quite safe wagering that the Dodgers 10th starter will get 10 starts this season.
The Dodgers rotation maybe one of the deepest, but also most fragile in Baseball. It will be fascinating to see just how many turns through the rotation their perfect world scenario rotation of Ohtani/Snell/Yamamoto/Glasnow/Sasaki/Kershaw actually take together
Anyone else think Roki Sasaki looks absolutely terrible in a Dodger uniform? He could have gone with any team and he chose the most boring team alongside the Evil Empire to choose.
^^
Most boring, grand prize winner.
Most boring World Champions.
Yucki’s posts indicate it is an expert in boring.
Gonsolin will likely be the 5th starter.
Lettuce face facts. May’s salad days are behind him.
It gunna be fun watching this glorified all-star team….
Happy Spring Training Opening Day!