Today marks six years since the signing of the largest contract in Rockies history. On February 26, 2019, Colorado signed Nolan Arenado to a seven-year extension that guaranteed $234MM. It kept the star third baseman from reaching the open market the following offseason. The franchise-record deal also included a full no-trade clause and the right to opt out after the 2021 season.
It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.
A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.
By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.
Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.
The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.
Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.
The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.
After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.
Is Arenado Spanish for waffle?
The trade destroyed the Rockies’ long-term leverage in free agency. If you’re a star player, why would you ever commit to a franchise that publicly botched their biggest extension, alienated their best player, and then paid another team to take him? The Bryant signing proves they still haven’t learned.
The Rockies had no strategic direction—this wasn’t a full teardown, nor was it a retooling. It was an impulse decision made to save face with ownership instead of actually improving the team. The return was an embarrassment because they prioritized money over talent.
This is the hidden cost of poor leadership in sports: It’s not just the bad trade—it’s the long-term damage to credibility that keeps compounding. Players, agents, and even opposing front offices now know the Rockies lack negotiating power in major moves.
This was the worst possible outcome in game theory. Arenado had all the leverage (full no-trade clause), and Colorado voluntarily weakened themselves further by attaching money to the deal. They essentially said, “Please take our best player and also here’s a check for $51 million to help you.”
This wasn’t just a bad trade. It was a self-inflicted, multi-year catastrophe rooted in poor planning, no foresight, and an inability to manage assets rationally.
Well said!!!!!
Rockies aren’t signing many anyways. LA NY BOS PHI ATL etc sign the stars.
Players that the big markets don’t want will still sign with them. What are they going to do take significantly less $ or risk injury turning down a great extension for them?
You are hitting on all cylinders tonight. I think signing Bryant may have been a worse business move than trading Arenado. But I would have kept him and let him be disgruntled.
Bryant for sure worse. Something about fool me once….. Colorado is a mess.
I have a feeling you wrote this before this article was posted.
@gomer33
Yes, I had it pre-typed up, awaiting for this specific topic to be posted to MLBTR.
Don’t we all do that? Just to be prepared right?
I’m convinced no team should ever give any player an unconditional no trade clause. It’s just a horrible move.
@Luke Strong
Teams and fans can be irrational about keeping a player all their career. Thankfully, the Rays aren’t like that. Probably the only rational team in the league.
The rays are smart but is it smart to not spend money? Imagine if even with the current roster they added some free agents
Baseball God decided that their only weakness is to have no money to make sure they don’t win the World Series every year
Opt outs options are usually awful. Maybe always. Like the opt out but then team has option to add more $ or years can be ok.
Team friendly extensions are awesome. It’s when you give free agent $ for an extension that’s the problem. Atlanta Cleveland Pittsburgh have done fantastic with extensions to keep players. There is lots of value in having players long term. Stars are good for interest and attendance.
Rays can’t or won’t spend $. No market ever does. 130m is about the max. With their attendance and interest they should be towards the bottom. They extended Wander! KK. Morton.
Can you imagine how Tampa would do with the Rockies stadium and fan base? People show up to Coors Field cause it’s a fun game day experience, minus the home team’s performance. Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox fans fill the stadium during respective series. But the Rockies overvalued their own talent, have poor scouting and even worse player development. Jeff Bridich was probably the worst GM maybe ever.
Don’t really find that to be irrational, lifetime players on certain teams is very cool and does not always need to end bad, (eg. Molina)
It’s either that or pay him significantly more money upfront. It’s not like Nolan and the Rockies agreed in principle on an extension for the same years and dollar figures but with no NTC and then the Rockies told him “Oh! But you also have to have a n0-trade clause or no deal!”
Will teams ever learn to just tell players to shove their salary demands up their you know what?
The players constantly whine like a 2 year old
But most of these big contracts end up screwing the team and the fans who have to pay their salaries through high ticket prices and food prices and TV deals
That’s why I cheer when other AL teams sign megadeals. In my view, the opposition is just making themselves worse long term.
Go and start the revolution then, Comrade Mikhail. Let your voice be heard.
Viva la revolution!
While MLB is a legal monopoly, they would lose that status pretty quickly if they openly colluded to keep player salaries down. Crony capitalism is as bad as Communism.
I was worried MLBTR had gone a couple days without an article where they could discuss the cards trading Arenado. Very clever tactic on this one.
They really snuck it in.
Why don’t any of these articles discuss how much money Arenado passed up by not opting out after the 2022 season? Players like him were signing huge contracts for up to 13 years at the time. He was given assurances the team would do whatever it took to remain competitive prior to opting in to the rest of the contract. The same thing happened in Colorado. Assurances were given then not fulfilled.
I’m a bit perplexed by the amount of animosity towards one of the very few players who didn’t chase maximum dollars and put winning first.
Very good point
I think Arenado learned from the first go around to put on a happy face no matter what.
People say Mo conned him when dealing with his opt out, but there was no way he would get more $$$ (in years or dollars) than he had in his long term Rockies deal. He wasn’t giving that up.
Which is why he and the Cardinals are now both in purgatory. An organization paralyzed in stupidity.
This never gets mentioned but Arenado is super Christian and the cards were big in that in their locker room for a while. Waino and Goldy ran team Bible studies and made it a big part of team culture. Arenado really liked that and now has a kid and likes living in STL.
Mo tried to win…just wasn’t too competent about it. Very different than what Colorado did.