The Cardinals have a trio of veteran pitchers locked into their season-opening rotation: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas. As they declined options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the Cards expressed a desire to create rotation opportunities for younger arms at the back end.
St. Louis has a trio of controllable pitchers in the mix for the last couple rotation spots. Andre Pallante turned in a 3.78 ERA behind a massive 61.8% grounder rate in 121 1/3 innings last season. Former first-round pick Michael McGreevy debuted with four appearances. He worked to a 1.96 ERA over his first 23 major league innings. The Cards used left-hander Matthew Liberatore in a relief role down the stretch, but he’s not locked into the bullpen for the upcoming season.
Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that the Cardinals have been encouraged by Liberatore’s stuff this spring and are considering giving him another rotation opportunity. The 25-year-old southpaw has worked in relief for all four of his Spring Training appearances, but that’s not especially meaningful when all pitchers are throwing in short stints as they build into game shape. Liberatore has tossed 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts and a pair of walks.
Liberatore made 60 appearances last season, all but six of which came out of the bullpen. The former top prospect allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine. His 21.2% strikeout rate was a career high but still checked in a bit below league average. Liberatore showed solid control and got grounders at a roughly average 42.2% rate.
With one option remaining, Liberatore can head back to Triple-A if the Cardinals want to allow him to continue building as a starter. It’s also possible he slots back into a bullpen role. The latter outcome doesn’t seem to be on the table for McGreevy. Manager Oli Marmol said over the weekend that the Cards weren’t interested in pushing the right-hander into relief to ensure he snags an Opening Day roster spot.
“I don’t see him as a guy who will benefit at all by going to the ’pen and breaking with us in that type of role,” Marmol said (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “My preference would be for him to start. When you go into the offseason and a lot of the messaging is around opportunity, then you want to keep guys in the role that they see them being in long term. And for him, we see him as a starter.”
McGreevy has a pair of minor league options. There’s a decent chance he’ll open the year in the Triple-A rotation. The UC Santa Barbara product spent most of last season at that level. He made 27 starts and worked 150 innings of 4.02 ERA ball. McGreevy kept the ball on the ground at a near-50% clip with slightly lower than average strikeout (21.6%) and walk (6.9%) marks. He could probably hold his own at the back of a major league rotation, but the options afford St. Louis flexibility to keep him stretched out in the minors.
Assuming Pallante has a leg up on the fourth starter role, that’d leave Liberatore and McGreevy competing with veteran lefty Steven Matz for the final spot. Matz isn’t a controllable long-term piece, but the Cardinals would love to see him create some level of trade value. He’s owed $12MM in the final season of a four-year deal that hasn’t panned out. While the Cards aren’t going to get any kind of significant return, a solid first half could allow them to offload part of his contract around the deadline.
Matz suffered back injuries that limited him to 44 1/3 innings last year. He allowed just over five earned runs per nine with a modest 17.4% strikeout rate. Matz has tossed nine innings of three-run ball over three appearances in exhibition play. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity but could work in long relief if he doesn’t win the fifth starter job.
Cards are caught in the middle. they want to win but they also want to develop cheap controlled arms for the rotation. Mikolas should be let go if he doesnt look any better than last year. But will they?
That makes the rotation stability less predictable but gives a runway to McGreevy, Pallante, Liberatore, maybe Mathews , Hence.. The sheer number of talented arms should cover any innings. Some of them will click. Most of them should.
Starting Matz is a business decision. hes good when healthy but cant be counted on and blocks young arms.
If they pick up Gibson that will be the tell on which direction they are going. Rebuild or try to have a winning season, which is probably the cieling. The most unpredictable season i can remember.
No chance they pick up Gibson.
McGreevy—- Starter
Libertore—— Left handed reliever
They won’t eat any chunk of salary letting go of someone including MM who at least will be an innings eater seems he’s tinkering with the zone to get batters chasing more. I have a feeling we will be seeing a good chunk of movement by mid season by injuries and trades allowing for more youth
An innings eater is no longer a good thing if he keeps posting an ERA over 5.00. We’ll see how the rest of Spring Training goes for Mikolas…
I like some parts of what you say, Simba. And I’d like to expand/chime in/agree.
Caught in the middle…or have the opportunity to have a hybrid season?
They have established leaders who chose to not take trades (Sonny, Contreras, Arenado), trade pieces (possibly Nado, Fedde, and Helsley) and all the prospects/young players to see if things fall together to actually win in the first half…which isn’t super likely, but it’s possible.
And if they’re winning, they have payroll flexibility to be buyers at the deadline and start the Bloom era early. Not likely, but possible since the young guys have a lot of upside. Hitting and pitching have both ticked up a lot this spring…yes, I know it’s spring.
If they’re not winning, then they can shift to a TOTAL rebuild approach very easily and the fans are already prepped for it.
Could be a lot of fun…GO CARDS!
That all makes sense. If everything clicks and the Cubs and or Brewers dont run away with the division, they could add. They could buy and sell. Creativity and smarts will remain to be seen.
The wild card would probably be harder than winning the division.
A QA for fedde and Helsley is possible and Bloom is outstanding at drafting comp picks.
i would rather watch the kids struggle a little than the S show of last year . Stunting the development of the kids to eak out 83 wins.
Nado has to go by years end. JJ Wetherholt will have a starting job soon and they are already overcrowded on the infield.
Agree with all that.
There’s not any pressure to have a winning record just for the sake of it, but if a few modest moves can be made that don’t hurt the biggest goal (improvement of prospects), go ahead a aim for 90 wins if it’s looking like that can happen.
It’s really just a year to see if Gorman and Walker can make the next step, while giving our young pitchers a shot. The team is not bad at all and a complete rebuild is not going to happen no matter how many folks insist that’s what they should do.
Where’s Joel ??
Another rotation spot will open up if Mozeliak is smart enough to work out a trade of Fedde to the Yankees. I’m not going to hold my breath though.
No reports of Yankees wanting Fedde as they have 5 SP may have to wait and would rather deal Matz or MM if possible rather than Fedde as if he’s good let’s try keeping him around if possible. Never can have enough pitching
Matz, maybe, but Mikolas has a no trade clause and no trade value even if he didn’t have a NTC.
Put Matz in the pen and cut Mikolas if you can’t find anyone (Marlins?) who will take him for 20 cents on the dollar.
Why on earth would the Marlins want him? They’re trying to cut payroll and get even younger. And they already have several young starters with potential like Meyer, Weathers, and Cabrera. And Eury coming back later this summer.
Most of their staff is injured and they could probably use at least one pitcher who can take the ball every fifth day so as not to burn through every remaining arm in the organization.
Granted, STL would have to pay almost all the salary, but if the Marlins would take on anything more than the league minimum it would be a win for the Cardinals. And Mikolas has a no trade clause but he lives in Florida so he might waive it to go to Miami.
Mike McGreevey? From Little Big League?
I don’t get why Mikolas apparently has a guaranteed spot. He should have one of the least guaranteed spots behind Matz and especially Pallante, preferably McGreevy as well. Demote the bum to the bullpen or even consider a DFA!
That’s a lot of money for ownership to just eat and they will try getting value out of innings for him and see if he can build up trade value
It’s not that much money if he continues to suck and doesn’t actually provide any value. He’s unlikely to build up much trade value even if he has improved. They should at least strongly consider demoting him to the bullpen.
If he’s the 6th best starter at the end of the spring, he should be in the bullpen as a long reliever. He doesn’t warrant a guaranteed rotation spot though, totally agree. I see no reason why Pallante, Liberatore, and McGreevy would have to wait behind irrelevant arms like Matz and Mikolas who could at least have a shot at providing value out of the bullpen.
As for Liberatore, he really needs to prove beyond a small sample size in Spring Training that he has improved against right-handed hitters before he’s even considered for another chance at the rotation. McGreevy deserves a spot much more than he does.
Is Liberatore improving on a certain pitch against RHBs? Often it’s a changeup, but with RHBs crushing him, it some type of pitch needs to be added/improved to Liberatore’s repertoire.
This is why I’d see how Liberatore does in 10 starts to open the year.
That’s too many potentially lost games. It would make much more sense to give those 10 starts to McGreevy instead while Liberatore continues to pitch out of the bullpen. After that point, they could reassess.
I get your point. I say 10 assuming he’s not totally abysmal, in which case he would not warrant 10.
If I remember correctly, they gave up something significant to acquire Liberatore. Think they have to sink or swim with the young guys they’ve got, positional players too. If they want to maximize value on Matz, try to turn him into LH bullpen weapon a la Matt Strahm.
Arozarena?
Aka RiceSand
Marmol has a different policy than Tony LaRussa about the possibility of starting off starting pitching prospects in the bullpen. LaRussa had no problems with putting guys like Adam Wainwright or Lance Lynn in the bullpen for their rookie years, and it certainly didn’t hinder either of their developments.
Although, with the current bullpen being stronger than the rotation, I do think it would be better for McGreevy to be in the MLB rotation for most if not the entire season, and it is more difficult (although not impossible like with Pallante last year) for a pitcher to begin a year in the bullpen and move to the starting rotation mid-season without wasting time building himself up in AAA.
Tony had a different policy because he’s Tony and going to the HOF.
Ownership/FO had another version of Tony in Schildt, who they fired because they don’t want someone who calls them out on their BS and has his own policy.
So, to say Oli has a policy seems like a stretch. He seems to have marching orders from the people who hired him because he follows orders. Is that a policy?
Most fans and analysts focus on who wins the job rather than why the competition is being structured this way. The Cardinals aren’t actually concerned about whether Matz is a long-term piece—they just need him to look good for three months. It’s not about performance—it’s about asset management.
Competing is still more important to them than maximizing trade value. Otherwise, Helsley and Fedde wouldn’t still be on the team.
Matz can potentially pitch out of the bullpen and still be worth something at the trade deadline if the Cardinals are out of contention and Matz is still healthy at that point.
After sitting back for four years now, we saw Mo win out over Schildt only because of his power. Definitely not by his baseball savvy. Unfortunately like I knew all along, Shildt needed the FO to help the team. But Mo sat back, believed in his wisdom and budgetary principles, to give us this team we have today.
We’ve had to put up with this for four years now. I’m not happy and Mo gets to ride out on his sunset cruise. In my mind, only to be remembered as bumbling fool
Firing Schildt is truly one of the most discouraging developments I’ve witnessed in the last twenty-five years of this team. I’ll never believe Mike deserved that and it has soured me on Mo forever.
Schildt deserved to be fired for putting Reyes in that playoff game after Waino beat out Scherzer. Everyone knew how that would end except Shildt.
And Marmol deserved to be fired for leaving an injured Helsley in the playoff game vs Philadelphia
I still don’t understand why the Cardinals fired Mike Shildt but the Cardinals loss has been the Padres gain and Shildt is such an improvement over Bob Melvin in all facets of the game. Has Shildt made some questionable decisions…yes but the guys on this Padres team definitely play for him instead of in spite of him. Show me a manager that has not made some questionable decisions because that list would be damn near invisible.
Regarding Liberatore…I remember when he was a top prospect in the draft and I still think he can be a quality MLB starting pitcher…maybe just not with the Cardinals. This is the type of LHP that AJ Preller would make a move on.
Give Mikolas 10 starts and then shift him to the bullpen. McGreevy can get called up at that point (or whichever of the prospective starters merits it most) to get the first chance to stick in the rotation. Matz should be in bullpen. He will torch his value even further in the rotation before getting hurt. At least in the ‘pen he might stay healthy and put up decent numbers. Pallante has to be a lock after last season.
I don’t think Mikolas or Liberatore will last a full season though, in terms of their effectiveness/if someone is knocking on the door.
1. Gray
2.. Fedde (until traded or extended)
3. Pallante
4. Liberatore (eventually moved to ‘pen)
5. Mikolas (eventually moved to ‘pen)
Next up: McGreevy, Roby, Graceffo, Robberse, Hence, Hjerpe, Matthews
Hopefully someone from the prospect bank can stick.
Why even give Mikolas 10 starts before the move? McGreevy is probably already a better rotation option.
I personally wouldn’t give Mikolas anything if I was in charge. I would’ve cut him part way through last year. I just tried to realistically think of what the team could do.
If I was setting the rotation it would look like:
1. Gray
2. Fedde
3. Pallante
4. McGreevy
5. Liberatore (short leash)
For this team to ever get back to winning, Mikolas needs to go. They won’t do that of course they will just keep sending him out there like he’s a #2 starter and he will continue to throw BP to the other team and strike out no one. Mo and Oli are tools of their own shared brilliance. If this team wins at all, it will have zero to do with whoever is running this team right now. It’s like they pick a new direction each week.
I really like McGreevy Hjerpe in the rotation and Roby for that or the bullpen. hoperully spring training injuries around the league will prompt a trade at least matz.. this is the year to see all these guys that have options
What would it take to get Liberatore in a trade?
Left Handed Pitcher – 6’4″ – 215 lbs.
Free agent in 2030 and is still pre arbitration eligible with full on Arbitration due starting in 2027.
Gives up a one HR every 9-10 innings pitched
Has about a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio
Whip of 1.267
ERA of 4.40
86 innings pitched
Michael McGreevy – Right Handed Pitcher – 6’4″ – 220 lbs. has about the same stats but is not a free agent until 2031 and arbitration eligible in 2028
Very small sample size for stats
Gives up a HR every 20 innings
Strike outs 18 / Walks 2 in 23 innings pitched
Whip of .783
ERA of 1.96
23 innings pitched
Projections would give the edge to McGreevy so would that make Liberatore a trade possibility?
Liberatore and Arenado to San Diego for ???
For nothing at all.
Cards would be happy to save the money off Arenado’s deal.
Pallante is a starter and should be the #2. Surprised this site would suggest that he’s somehow battling for a starter role, which is absurd.
Looking for the annual tradition of realizing Libertore is better in the bullpen.
One thing I agree with Marmol on is that McGreevy doesn’t profile as a reliever. It would be great to have a lefty in the rotation (Liberatore, not Matz) but I can’t see it happening. They’ll give Matz every opportunity to go out there and build some trade value.
Of all of Mo’s many disasters, giving these inflated, guaranteed contracts to middling pitchers like Mikolas and Matz has been a crusher. They have blocked up the development of the entire staff. If those two worthless pieces were gone, we would start the season with clarity and talent in the starting five.