TODAY: The Cubs and Crow-Armstrong have ceased negotiations for now, the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes. As per Mooney’s framing, the talks seemed somewhat exploratory in nature, and perhaps more to “lay some groundwork for the future” rather than to complete an extension immediately. There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”
APRIL 12: The Cubs recently reached out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s camp with an extension offer, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand relays that the deal would’ve maxed out in the $75MM range if all option years involved in the deal had been exercised, though it would not have reached that figure in terms of total guarantee. The exact structure of the offer is not known and, while Feinsand writes that the sides did not work out a deal, it’s unclear whether talks between the two sides have ended for the time being or could continue going forward.
That Chicago would have interest in extending Crow-Armstrong’s stay in Chicago beyond his years of control is hardly surprising. The longtime top prospect came over from the Mets in the Javier Baez trade at the 2021 trade deadline, and he flew through the minor leagues after arriving in Chicago to make his big league debut late in the 2023 season. Crow-Armstrong’s offense has not been anything special during his time in the majors so far, with a 79 wRC+ overall and an 87 wRC+ in 123 games last year, but he’s more than made up for that lackluster performance at the plate with phenomenal work in the field and on the bases. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths last year, including 22 straight steals without being caught.
In the field, meanwhile, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among all outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field, meaning he put up those huge numbers despite getting less than three-quarters of a full season’s worth of reps. Overall, that defensive and baserunning ability was good for 2.7 fWAR last year despite him being 13% below league average as a hitter.
The fact that Crow-Armstrong has flashed a three-win floor when prorated out over a full season has to be enticing to the Cubs even before considering his solid work on offense in the second half last year, when he slashed .260/.309/.442 with a 108 wRC+ and nine homers over the season’s final three months. If the 23-year-old were ever able to reach that sort of offensive production on a consistent basis, he’d likely blossom into the sort of perennial All-Star Chicago is surely hoping for. That all makes trying to extend Crow-Armstrong, as many other clubs have done with youngsters like Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar, a sensible goal for the organization.
With that being said, offering Crow-Armstrong a hefty contract under the expectation that he will fulfill that offensive ceiling would be very risky. He certainly wouldn’t be the first extremely talented hitter with five-tool potential to fail to reach that ceiling in the big leagues, and Billy Hamilton’s career serves as a reminder of the fact that a player can’t expect to find success purely off elite defensive and baserunning even if they play a position as defensively important as center field. That surely contributed to a recent poll of MLBTR readers winding up split nearly down the middle on whether or not the Cubs should pursue an extension with the youngster, with just under 52% of respondents voting no.
Chicago’s solution for the wide gap between Crow-Armstrong’s current offensive abilities and his demonstrated potential seems to have been to err on the side of caution. An extension that guarantees Crow-Armstrong significantly less than $75MM would fall below the standard set by many other recent early-career extensions including the aforementioned Butler and Tovar deals as well as deals signed by players like Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell just after or before their big league debuts. It’s hard to properly evaluate the deal the Cubs offered Crow-Armstrong without knowing more about the structure; after all, even the deal between Detroit and infielder Colt Keith maxes out in a similar range ($82MM) as the one reported for Crow-Armstrong despite guaranteeing him just $28.6425MM.
Given that even mediocre hitters with the sort of elite defense that Crow-Armstrong possesses like Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier have been paid handsomely in free agency with one-year deals that often fall into the $10MM range, it makes sense that Crow-Armstrong would likely require a healthier guarantee than the one Keith received from the Tigers in order to sign on the dotted line. Evidently, the offer the Cubs presented his camp with did not pass muster, though with the youngster not presently set to hit free agency until after the 2030 season there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a deal that extends his stay in Chicago past those initial years of team control.
If I were PCA I would’ve definitely taken that 75 million…
At best I can see him as a prime Kevin kiermaier type with average offense and elite defense but I’m really suspicious on PCA’s offense
“Kevin Kiermaier type”…When you haven’t really proved you can hit at this level and someone offers you $60M+, you should take it.
Could be 10 million guaranteed with a bunch of club options that bring it up to 75 million. Truly not enough info in this article to jump to that conclusion
Could be, but this isn’t the NFL. Never seen a deal close to that in MLB. You?
@rayreed5220
the numbers thrown out are not important, my point is that when they say the total amount including club options, it tells you very little about the deal and whether or not it is a no brainer, as many are saying.
Sal Perez (original deal), Dobnak, and Evan White are all players in recent memory who had lower guarantee numbers with a higher overall deal number. With the only info being a total dollar value including club options, we have no idea what the deal really is (even moreso now seeing the update on this article where insiders are saying the 75 million number is inaccurate)
That’s kind of par for the course around here. And it’s the same for journalism in general. If one doesn’t know the specifics, than anything else is pure conjecture.
Cubs like to troll. Offer a contract just under what they will say yes to then laugh at them later.
Should have taken the $. He isn’t a sure enough think to bet on himself like that. If they were willing to offer a potential 75m he could have worked out 60 65 or something guarantee. To make a offer this early they see something they like and want. Take advantage of that and take care of your family for a long time.
He is plus in the outfield, average to below average hitter so far.
Agree, take the money, i dont think his ceiling is very high.
Just add that money to the Tucker extension offer. PCA is all D.
There is no Tucker extension. If he was open to an extension he’d still be in Houston.
Houston philosophically doesn’t do the long-term mega signings. That’s why they traded him. If the Cubs splurged with 450mil offer, that is not easy to turn down being 3yrs older than Vlad Jr (albeit a more complete player).
No, they traded him to get something prior to him being a free agent. The minute Soto signed that deal was the minute he was gone. In no way is he signing an extension.
How bout a contract extension with Kyle Tucker lst? Smh
D’Baggagecling and I were talking about an 8yr/$80MM kind of looking Extension here a month or two ago, where’s my Cubbie braddha at? Haha
Yo what’s up.
I think PCA should take less than 80mil over 8 years. He’ll only be in 31 with an 8 year deal. I think he knows he hasn’t reached his full potential so he knows that he’s worth more than 75 million guaranteed. He’s a very smart kid to realize he hasn’t reached his peak yet. I think the hitting will definitely come around.
It’s crazy that people thought he was a bust during his cup of coffee in 2023. 1. It was only 19PAs and 12ABe. 2. Davis Ross hardly gave him a chance to play 3. He was only 21 back then and only 23 now.
Shouldn’t* take less than 80mil
Aloha Gwynning! I really hope PCA can at least be a .255-.270 hitter, get on base and steal a ton of bags. He’s not your Merrill in terms of offense, so some are worried he won’t be any more than a great defender. I hope he can prove his “worth” at the plate, enough to be the starter. On another note, many think Tucker will get $450-500+ mil and it won’t be with Chicago. Which means a lot was given away for a rental if he doesn’t sign an extension. Hope your Padres continue to play well! Mahalo!
They can either pay him now or someone else can pay him more later.
lol @ Gwynning, Why would you extend this guy, because the fans love him? He hasnt hit in the show yet.
That way the Cubbies have an excuse of why they will always be short of making the playoffs because they can’t get good players or resign Tucker because this extension is handicapping them. CC so over values defensive players that can’t hit. No need to sign anyone to an extension because everyone eventually ends up in CC doghouse and then they don’t see the field
Bee Dubs- Luggage wanted it for his Cubs, but we came to a very similar pay range/structure (as being reported) through a healthy discussion about what a possible extension would look like!
Best to extend before they hit. A lot less expensive that way.
He hasnt earned an extension yet. Not saying he gotta win a batting title but show some solid potential .
So far, .220avg lifetime aint cutting it
He will be a tremendous 4th OFer.
On top of that, he has an OBP well below .300 and isn’t even slugging .400 either. If you can’t hit for contact, you at least have to draw enough walks and/or hit for enough power to make up for it.
“There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”
modern day reporting hahaha
It doesn’t matter how elite you are defensively, if you can’t hit, you are a fourth outfielder.
No idea why the Cubs are even offering him that level of contract and even more surprised that PCA’s camp would decline it.
Another no trade clause incoming.
Has it hurt them yet?
He reminds me of a more athletic James Outman
For what reason.. the numbers don’t lie
I still reminder his mom playing the lady whose son owned the twins
Underrated great movie
You just blew my mind, my guy. I loved that movie. Good ol’ Night Nurses From Jersey
Great movie. I preferred it over the others that came out all around the same time. “What color paint?”
. I love a deep cut MLB reference like Billy Hamilton as much the next person, but these are not apt comparisons.
I think maybe more like a Bobby Crosby wound be a fair comparable, all things considered.
I would not extend him right now period, but if I did it’d be for way less than a $75M guarantee….
Given all that…
$3.5M signing bonus, then starting in 2026: $1M, $2M, $6.5M, $10M, $15M, $15M, $17.5M, $17.5M, $17.5M, $20M, $5M buyout on $25M option.
$130.5M guaranteed over 10 years or up to 11 years/$150.5M and let’s throw in up to $55M in incentives based on MVP vote rank, silver sluggers, golden gloves, all star selections, etc etc.
Either it’ll be a massive overpay of a prospect that didn’t pan out or it’ll be a fair/slight underpay to a good pro baseball player, but I highly doubt this kind of deal would ever be seen as team friendly and I don’t see him signing for much less, given his product status and high profile.
I realize I contradicted myself. I just can’t imagine someone signing so far under market at this point in the game.
This is now at the point where if you stick around a bit you should still wind up earning well over $100M over a 10+ year career as a starter/heavily used platoon player.
He won’t see free agency til 2031. If he honestly believes he ll stick around and produce at MLB level he’s got plenty if time still for an extension.
That’s basically the breakdown for Jackson Merill’s extension, TTO! Extreme overpay for PCA.
He’s a trillionaire, though, so he can afford to overpay.
Gwynning
That’s basically the breakdown for Jackson Merill’s extension, TTO! Extreme overpay for PCA.
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I’d say PCA’s comp is a lot closer to Rafael, and he got $50M/8 with one option year.
“I can’t imagine..so far under market”..It’s far from “under market”. At this point in his career it’s over market if anything.
The unemployment office and minor leagues are full of guys who can’t hit but are above average at catching the ball.
A previous poster just called that profile a “4th outfielder”. Let me state the obvious, 4th outfielders typically won’t be guaranteed $60M+ at any point in their career.
I remember the players and commenters that said Houston 1b Jon Singleton was “hurting” other player’s market by taking an “under market”, near $15M deal almost a decade ago. They suggested Singleton could get considerably more $$ by waiting a few years.
I think we all know that after accepting the deal Singleton didn’t spend much more time in the Major Leagues for around 5+ years and his career completely floundered.
Taking that $15M deal was the smartest decision Singleton ever made. Had he waited and declined the deal no one was going to offer to “help him feed his family”, as Singleton himself later said.
Especially with 6 of the yrs being team controlled and arbitration years. Each yr of team control lowers the total value significantly.
I feel like a guy who dyes his hair blue is confident enough to try and hit FA early.
did his agent suggest the extension or Hoyer proving to be the worst GM in baseball?
75 mil for .200 hitting fifth outfielder on most teams. Should have taken the cash
If you can’t hit taking 75 million seems like a no brainer
Brett Taylor and other Cubs shills consistently over-value PCA’s offensive potential–and he isn’t really the “chaos agent” on the bases that he is cracked up to be. (He did some stunts during spring training that he doesn’t even try during the regular season.) He is a VERY good center fielder, and that has value. I don’t see any good reason to extend him now.
Even PCA’s aforementioned second half surge was concentrated in the month of August. It also came with a exit velocity under 85mph, which he’s carried over into 2025.
There’s just so little by way of tangible results or background data at the plate to justify an extension. At least let him hint at further progress before making the offer.
He’s under team control, an extension can wait a couple years for both sides
This has nothing to do with why extensions are signed. For either side.
I get a healthy Kevin Kiermaier vibes with PCA
My first thought was $60m/10 years
“Never turn down your first fortune.”
F
A
C
T
Meanwhile, the Orioles are sitting on their hands and doing nothing!
He’s exceptionally fast and there’s definitley a chance he wins a Platinum Glove in the future. But he still needs to hit just a bit more. He’d be plenty valuable even if he can consistently sit in the 90-100 wRC+ range. PCA is still young enough that’s not out of the question, but he should definitley take that extension if it’s on the table.
What’s with Howdy Doddys noggin? Ad space for rent?
The rent is free for you.
No money down too?
His exit velocities are brutal. Definitely a designated fielder.
The Cubs’ offer misreads the market for elite defensive center fielders, a position where supply is shrinking (only 5 qualified CFs had >2 WAR in 2024). By cheaping out on guarantees, they’re assuming Crow-Armstrong’s bat won’t improve (despite a 108 wRC+ second half) while ignoring that his glove and legs already make him a $10-15MM/year player in today’s game. No one’s talking about this because the focus is on his .200 average, but the real error is undervaluing a skill set—plus-plus defense at a premium position—that’s rarer than ever. If he walks in 2030, the Cubs will pay triple to replace him, a mistake clear in the numbers but lost in batting average noise.
When applying AI parameters you forgot to account for his current salary($740k) and how that factors in throughout yrs of team control and arbitration process. On top of that we weren’t given any idea of how many yrs this could have been for.
No one’s talking about this, but Old York has turned into a parody of himself.
They shouldn’t give him that much money, because he sucks.
The Cubs love players like PCA—high floor, low ceiling, minimal contract over time.
Another prospect that has been WAY over hyped. His batting average is below the Mendoza line this year after 10% of the season. His career batting average isn’t much better. He IS a plus defender and has some speed in his legs. At best, he’s a late game outfield/baserunning substitute and he is DEFINITELY not worth extending. He’s a 4th outfielder, MAYBE.
He has a 99 OPS+ this year, and a GG-caliber CF. That’s plenty valuable.
It’s also a 99 OPS+ in less than 100 plate appearances.
A 1st rd pick dumped by the Mets that can’t hit mlb pitching. You have a superstar in Tucker that gets an extension not Ginger Badbat. What a stupid organization.
If PCA develops into a star, watch Hanley create soulless art featuring him.
I don’t know
He sucks. Why would the Cubs do this?
PCA must have been a little fired up after reading the comments today. Nice game!
My prediction is that he will be a slightly above average hitter, with GGs in CF. That makes him a pretty decent player.
The issue is that, having just turned 23, the Cubs fans don’t understand why he isn’t a star.
PCA looks better defensively than Hamilton and has more power. It’s sort of a fair comparison, but Armstrong’s better offensive profile makes him quite a bit more valuable IMO. Hamilton had the benefit of being on terrible teams and got ample playing time. PCA will have to compete to remain the Cub’s CF long term and if he puts up a 3 WAR floor he could be there for a long time.
Hamilton had zero power, and that’s not an exaggration either. His exit velocity is the worst in and his barrel rate is the 3rd worst among batters with at least 1500 PA’s in the Statcast Era. At least PCA was in the 46th and 45th percentile of exit velo and barrel rate last year, which could at least give him the potential for multiple double-digit home run seasons, even if hitting is never a strong suit.
Kiermaier is still the best comp for PCA. If he can sustain around a 90 OPS+, just below Kiermaier’s 95 career OPS+ he’ll be extremely valuable. Better base stealer and so far he’s looks close to as good defensively if you trust your eyes.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.