The Cubs lost ace southpaw Justin Steele for the year last week when it was announced he’d need season-ending elbow surgery, but Steele didn’t actually go under the knife until Friday. Prior to today’s game against the Diamondbacks, manager Craig Counsell updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) on Steele’s status post-surgery and offered some positive news for fans in Chicago. Bastian notes that the Cubs described Steele’s procedure as a “revision repair” of the UCL in his left elbow. That’s a less serious procedure than Tommy John surgery, which entirely replaces the UCL. Counsell suggested that the initial timeline for Steele’s return to action is roughly one year, which would suggest that he can be expected back on the mound fairly early into the 2026 season.
It’s great news for the Cubs and Steele, particularly because Steele already had Tommy John surgery early in his career when he was still a prospect. Second Tommy John surgeries typically come with a rehab on the longer side of the surgery’s typical 12-to-18 month recovery timeline, and occasionally require an even longer layoff. Had Steele required full Tommy John surgery, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Steele not take a big league mound again until the final weeks of the 2026 season, as was the case for Jacob deGrom when he returned from his second Tommy John surgery last September after nearly 17 months spent rehabbing.
Fortunately, that wasn’t the case, and the Cubs will be able to plan for the 2026 campaign with a reasonable expectation that Steele will be a big part of their rotation mix next year, as was the case for the Braves after Spencer Strider underwent an internal brace procedure early in the 2024 season that came with a similar one-year timetable. Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Dylan Cease are among a handful of front-of-the-rotation arms who figure to be highly sought after this winter, but an early 2026 target for Steele could make the Cubs less inclined to get involved in the markets for those pitchers, especially if they decide to commit their free agent dollars to a pursuit of a long-term deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker.
While the Cubs can expect Steele to pitch for the club again in 2026, the hit to their short-term rotation depth could still lead them to pursue pitching help this summer. The Cubs appear focused on internal solutions for the time being, and Colin Rea has held his own impressively since subbing in for Steele after opening the year in the bullpen, with effective (although brief) starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks during which he’s surrendered just two runs with ten strikeouts against one walk across 8 1/3 innings of work. That sensational production can’t be expected to last forever, but with top pitching prospect Cade Horton striking out 37.5% of his opponents at Triple-A it’s at least possible the Cubs could enter July feeling good about their rotation for the stretch run.
Plenty of arms should be available at the deadline if they do end up needing reinforcements, with the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara standing out as the most frequently discussed name. Aside from Alcantara, players like Tyler Anderson, Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen could all theoretically be available on the trade market depending on the where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings this summer. Aside from Alcantara, each of those players can become free agents following the 2025 season. That could be preferable for the Cubs in the event they do pursue pitching help given that Steele is expected to pitch most of the 2026 season and each of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon are already under contract for next year, while the club holds an option on Rea.
Always a positive to see better injury news, hopefully he can get back and stay on the mound (a la a Zack Wheeler).
They should have traded for Priester. Looks really good for the Brewers so far. Missed out on that controllable arm with six years.
Assad short term and Horton long term. Horton will slot in as the number three after Shota and Boyd.
Right at this moment Rea is a better option than Assad.
Agree
Or signed Quintana. The Brewers are always one or two moves ahead of Hoyer…Hoyer doesn’t believe in being too reactive to injuries, but sometimes a POBO needs to be. Hoyer’s fundamental flaw, more than all his other flaws, is that he is inflexible. He has his way of doing things, and he cannot depart from it when such a departure is needed. We all know people like that, but only one of them is running the Cubs.
Whats revision surgery. Is that internal brace procedure. I just haven’t heard that one yet.
Judging by the time of recovery, 12 months or so, this appears to be the internal brace procedure that Spencer Strider just came back from.
That’s not bad, it means Steele would probably be coming back next season around May with no setbacks.
@acoss. I know there’s a hybrid one with a minor cleanup and brace. The timelines get weird. They say six months and it’s a year. They say a year, and it’s two. I guess the brace is pretty much a bandaid, probably need Tommy john three years, but if you get three your out of the league.
It is peculiar that the media are using the term as if they have ever heard it before, or as if we have ever heard it before. Seeing T-Mac intone it self-importantly on TV yesterday was kind of funny. It sounds like some kind of technical medical-ese that might not have much relevance to Steele’s recovery time…Hoyer should assume Steele *won’t* be back next season in any case. Then if he is, that will be the proverbial ” good problem to have.”
@Alan53. It probably comes down to them not knowing about the brace. They just say Tommy john. Also probably different degrees is it a three or a ten, and completely toast. Steele sounds like he caught it early. Teams always say the best outcome when it’s probably still a year, and maybe he pitches 30 innings before getting shutdown again
Berti is as good as McMahon. Too bad Busch or Happ can’t play 3B, because Ballesteros is on fire.
Beyond Rea, I just don’t see Assad or Wicks as realistically viable options. Not if they want to win the division. Assad has historically walked way too many and which Wicks do they have? The one who looked pretty good when he first came up or the one who threw BP the other day in relief? Hoyer is gonna have to make a move at the deadline for a serious viable starter. And he’s got to find a couple of decent options for that BP sooner than later.
I think for now Assad and Rea can both start two or three games, but in 3-4 weeks, the Cubs will give Cade Horton the keys to the car and tell him to take the wheel. Expect quite a few brilliant five-inning performances out of him.
Either way, the Cubs need pitching, way more pitching than another starter to replace Steele. The names mentioned by ChatGPT in the article aren’t championship players. It’s still April, 5 months of this current pitching isn’t going anywhere.
Did you know the Cubs are in first place and took the series from the D-Backs? Btw, the D-backs are the best hitting ballclub at the moment.
Steele certainly would be a #1 on the st Louis staff.
Steal away.
Colin Rea has looked pretety good so far. He’s definately in for some regression, given his ERA is 1.32 but his SIERA is 3.28 but still quite decent.