Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published an early Power Rankings looking ahead to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an obvious choice for the top spot and Dylan Cease ended up pretty comfortably in second. The next few entrants were tougher to separate, but Bo Bichette ended up third.
Bichette’s free agency was and is tough to peg. He has a strong track record of success, but his 2024 season was awful. His bat has been strong on the whole, though with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His defense has been passable enough to stick at short, but he’s not great there.
Of the potential top free agents this coming winter, he seemingly has some of the widest error bars. This post will take a look at the spectrum, using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a guide.
As you can see in that screenshot (link for app users), I’ve used the dropdown bars to search for free agent deals for shortstops over the past five years. I’ve then ranked them by the total guarantee on the contract. There are some pretty clear tiers in earning power, so let’s see where Bichette could fit in.
From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons. His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.
The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he’s generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side. Outs Above Average, however, doesn’t like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he’s finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.
Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.
Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains. He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.
Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s despite a slow start. Through the end of April, he still hadn’t hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.
Turning to the Contract Tracker list, at the top is a level that Bichette shouldn’t be able to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM followed by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager got his deal going into his age-28 season, the same age Bichette will be next year. However, Seager was simply better. His power output was fairly close to Bichette’s but with far more walks, leading to a 142 wRC+. His defense was also graded higher.
Seager had 19.8 fWAR at the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette could actually go past that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR right now, but that’s mostly due to Seager’s injuries (most notably, Tommy John surgery). Seager produced that WAR total in just 514 regular season games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 games under his belt. There was some injury risk with Seager but he was far better on a rate basis and that’s what the Rangers paid for.
Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, but his combination of offense, defense and speed gave him a massive ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his final two seasons before free agency, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As mentioned, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.
The next two names on the list are a bit unusual. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as a huge surprise at the time and the deal hasn’t worked out for the Padres so far. In the industry, that one is chalked up to the Friars going a bit wild. Owner Peter Seidler was in poor health and was allowing the front office to spend like never before, seemingly throwing caution to the wind with the knowledge that he didn’t have much time left.
Carlos Correa’s deal is also an unusual data point. His earning power was initially far higher. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants before they got scared by his physical and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM deal with Correa before they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM deal with the Twins was therefore the product of a fairly unprecedented situation. The unique quartet of vesting options in the deal reflect the odd circumstances and could add millions more to Correa’s bank account.
There’s a case for Bichette to be in the next tier. I’ll circle back to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Each signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM annually. Adames and Swanson got a seventh year, pushing their total guarantees to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story were each capped at six years and $140MM total.
Bichette will be one year younger than everyone in that group, theoretically giving him a bit more earning power. The question will be whether he’s ranked as highly apart from that. Adames is a better defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his career. That latter figure is a bit odd, as he was clearly in positive range before posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 so far as a Giant.
Offensively, he had often been similar to Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 home runs in the latter season. His power remained in 2022 and 2023 but low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in those seasons. He bounced back in 2024 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.
Swanson was always a glove-first shortstop with questions about the bat. Through 2021, he still had a career 88 wRC+. But in 2022, his walk year, he hit 25 home runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Thanks to his excellent defense and 18 stolen bases, he was able to produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above anything Bichette has done, but he had only done it once. Still, it was enough for the Cubs to buy in.
Báez and Story were more erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons but provided enough on defense and the basepaths to be useful. His offense improved as he neared free agency but wasn’t consistent. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the year after. The shortened 2020 season was a disaster, with a wRC+ of 57, before he bounced back to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was almost a six-win player, getting to 5.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. Those were higher than any Bichette season, but he was also well below at times.
Somewhat similarly, Story hit a higher peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 home runs, though playing in Denver during the juiced ball season surely helped him a bit in that regard. Still, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and strong defense led to a six-win season. He also had 2.0 fWAR in the shortened 2020 campaign with similar production. But in his walk year, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he only produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and some concerns about his elbow health knocked him down a bit.
Here is the fWAR total for each in the six seasons leading to free agency, including the shortened 2020 season for all in the name of fairness:
Baez: 21.9 in 782 games
Story: 20.3 in 745 games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 games
Bichette is right in the thick there. As mentioned, Swanson bloomed in his walk year, so it makes sense he would be at the bottom of this six-year list. If Bichette has a typical year for him, he could add another three or four wins and get fairly close to the other shorstops on the list. Factor in some inflation and that he’s a year younger than everyone in that pack and he has a case to earn something around $200MM.
What will also work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear top shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the most recent offseason. Alongside Bichette, the only other potential everyday shortstop this winter would be Ha-Seong Kim. He is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and needs to both recover and play well enough to opt out of the second season of his two-year deal with the Rays. Even in a best-case scenario where that all happens, his earning power would be below a healthy and productive Bichette.
This is all still somewhat hypothetical. As mentioned, Bichette seems to be getting back to his 2021-23 pace this year, but in a fairly small sample. There’s still lots of time for the season to turn on him. If he ends up having more 2024-style struggles, he could certainly fall. Let’s turn to the Contract Tracker again.
These are the top deals for second basemen by average annual value in the past five years (link for app users). This perhaps paints a picture of Bichette’s floor. Given his questionable defense, it’s possible that clubs may view him as someone who’s likely to move to second base fairly soon. And the earning power of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, though that’s an outlier. At the time, the Rangers were five years into a deep rebuild and were eager to speed up the process with aggressive spending.
Gleyber Torres is an interesting comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was once a highly-touted shortstop prospect, but with a better bat than glove. Unlike Bichette, he couldn’t stick at short. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.
His offensive production has been somewhat comparable to Bichette’s on the whole. He went into free agency with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit below Bichette’s typical range. He also had a tepid platform year, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “prove it” deal with the Tigers.
It currently seems unlikely that Bichette would fall quite that far. His career wRC+ of 120 is a few ticks above what Torres brought to the open market last fall. Bichette also has a leg up defensively, as he will be going into free agency as a viable shortstop, at least for the short term.
But a soft finish in 2025 could hamper Bichette. In that scenario, he’d be going into free agency on the heels of two fairly disappointing seasons in a row. That was the situation Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced back that year and went into the open market ahead of his age-28 campaign.
But there were enough question marks from his inconsistency, health and defense that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, well below initial expectations. He earned opt-out chances after each season in that deal but declined the first chance after a good-not-great 2024 season.
Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. Anything from $20MM to $200MM seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.
A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end. The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players. Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.
Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one. If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won’t be a factor for him — yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.
Photo of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images
His power has seemed to have disappeared. His home runs have gone down each of the last 4 seasons and is on pace to go down again this season.
Unless he gets really got for the rest of season. I would be surprised if he gets a 100 million.
Unless he has a bad 2025 I see no world in which he doesn’t get 100m.
Very low chance he does with his horrendous season last year. He isn’t getting a lot of years.
He’s a decent SS now. Has some speed on the bases and had 1 bad year guy hits a lot (currently one of the top in the league in hits) he’s getting paid if you like it or not
After what the league was willing to give Alonso last offseason I’d say you might be right. Was shocked the Padres gave Bogarts what they did. Torres got a prove it contract, Bichette might only get a 2-3 year guarantee
He’s showing no power and his defense is very average. To be fair, he gets what Cleveland gave Andres Gimenez. At the beginning of the year, I thought he’d be an easy QO. Not anymore.
He’s easily going to get qualifying offer. Even if his power stays down, he hits for better contact and smacks a ton of doubles.
As for his power he missed almost 30 games in 2023 and missed half of 2024. That obviously has an impact on one’s production. This year yes he’s hit HRs at a lower rate, but he’s easily on pace for a career high in doubles and is 2nd in MLB. So he’s still hitting the ball very well.
There is absolutely zero chance he doesn’t get a QO
There is absolutely no chance he doesn’t sustain a serious injury to an elbow or knee. Right. Wait. No.
Even an injury wouldn’t remove the QO from him.
Unless career ending
@Dusty Every single MLB player under team control is under the “what ifs” like career ending injury. Aside from something extreme such as that Bichette is a lock for a QO.
If he has a season like last years, I’d say he isn’t a lock
Little Bo peep can’t go deep, his power has gone away.
When you feel the heat, it’s time to cheat & do as daddy say. Ahahahahahaha!
So you are saying that you think that if he gets injured and misses half the season for the 2nd time in 3 years that he would still get a QO?
No such thing as a bad 1 year deal
If it is for a player that spends half the season on the IL, absolutely there is.
Players are literally signed while still rehabbing from TJ.
Can you name any that were offered a QO?
Barring significant injury he’s getting a QO. 5 of his 6 seasons have been healthy and productive. The theme of the naysayers here is pointing at one season that is clearly the outlier. As of now he’s been healthy and productive again, which if it continues will make for the 6th time in his 7 year career.
Zero chance? So you think that the Jays are either sure contenders by the deadline or won’t entertain a trade even if they aren’t in contention?
If he’s not eligible for one that’s a completely different story.
Fair point. But I think that’s a very likely scenario.
Sadly I think with the AL being so weak, the jays will probably hang around just enough to not be sellers.
That is my biggest fear. It was especially so before the Vladdy extension, but with Vladdy signed, the urgency to win this season feels less intense and a priority on the medium term while he’s still in his prime is more sensible. I don’t know where the buy/sell/stand pat line is. I hope closer to last year’s Tigers than ‘23 Angels.
I doubt they’ll be able to buy luckily, they don’t have the prospect capital, especially not healthy ones.
So it may not get better but atleast it won’t get worse
@Kam The Jays might consider a trade, but any trade has to start by offering a decent bit more than a comp pick if he turns down a QO.
And the while point of this discussion is if the Jays would offer a QO or not if given the opportunity. That’s what the zero chance applies to, not the what ifs such as a trade.
Tigers, yeah that’s true. I just think it’s worth noting that the likelihood of trade is fairly high. And that would negate the QO which in the context of this article about Bichette’s earning potential is a factor.
In terms of the return being worth more than the comp pick, yes, that’s a factor. But with a CBT estimate of over $276m, there doesn’t appear to be a likely route to getting below $241m so that comp pick is after the 4th round instead of after the 2nd round and has about half the slot value. The Jays had such a pick recently for Matt Chapman leaving and selected Nick Mitchell who signed for about $50k below the slot value ($517k). He was the secondary piece in the Horwitz-Gimenez/Sandlin trade. I don’t think it’ll be difficult to find a better offer than that if Bichette is on pace to receive a QO in the first place.
He’s right there at his career 119 OPS+. Does a middle infielder at age 27 with that production really have the small value you are stating?
The term middle infielder is too vague to give a good answer to your question. There is an ocean dividing the value of a SS at 119 OPS+ and a 2B at 119 OPS+.
Well my point is no matter which he were (or even 3B) he would (at 28) be far more valuable than most of these people are saying. Not to mention that if he does change position there is a good chance he will be better at it than at short.
To be fair I could see a 2B of that ilk getting less than 100m. I mean he does appear to be a fairly bad SS based on the metrics. I just felt like the age is in his favor and he is athletic enough to where he should fit nicely somewhere on the diamond. The 100m mark is not that high in this day (certainly worth more than a one year Q.O.. I’m not salivating over him as a FA but he’s got good value.
What does his career have to do with it. He is on a downward trend which doesn’t bode well.
Besides one bad year in which there were several things going on he is about 120 OPS+ yearly. I see no decline to the extent you all are saying. And if anything better past production can lead to the hope that there is possibility for upside. As long as he hits this year at similar rates to his career, his age will guarantee a club(s) will buy in.
Some folks only look at the baseball card numbers and are still comparing them to two decades ago. It is much harder to hit today.
Hope is definitely not a strategy or winning formula.
Taking one statement without addressing the overall discussion I have made is not a winning strategy in an argument. The overall argument is he is once again putting up the same type of production to his career norms and he is 27. I am merely saying it doesn’t hurt to see that at one point he was even better. Nobody is gonna sign him because of production from 5 years ago. Agreed. When a team looks at Pete Alonso they are not gonna completely ignore that he has hit 50 HR. They aren’t gonna sign him expecting that but all things equal it can’t hurt
3 years/$60 million with an opt out after years 1 an 2.
That’s going to be light on dollars but I can see him accepting that structure if his market doesn’t pan out. He’s at $17.5M now and a $20M AAV isn’t much of raise as a free agent.
That might be light on total dollars because of getting a longer deal, but I don’t think he is going to make much more then the $21-22 million QO number as an AAV. He is just not very good.
User name checks out.
I bet your really close on that prediction.
Is he a Boras client!?
CAA.
So he is less likely to get hosed into a short term “high value” contract. May be signing earlier in the year. I would not want to be a Boras client in this particular segment of the market.
Bichette is on pace for a 3.8-3.9 WAR season in 2025 IF he stays healthy which would put him at 2.7 WAR from 2023-2025. That after averaging 2.7 WAR from 2022-2024. You are probably pretty close unless he really can pick it up with the bat by the end of the season. After all Adames got just $26 million AAV and he averaged nearly a full WAR higher over the 3 seasons prior to free agency.
Adames only averaged 1 higher WAR due to Bichette missing half of last season to injury and playing injured much of the half he played. So averaging the 3 years as equals this absolutely should be noted.
Also what happens when you average their last 4 years accounting for Adames down year?
The ability to stay healthy is a part earning power, so the lower WAR stands. His earning potential is lower than Adames AAV.
Team’s don’t. They look at the past 3 years weighting the most recent season heavier.
Also, its not ONLY 1 WAR. That is nearly 25% higher WAR. Its substantial.
He’s had 1 season of 6 that has been significantly impacted by injury. So using this arbitrary 3 year average as though it’s a golden rule and saying it stands is absolutely non-sense.
Kind of surprised Pads normally u have much more rationale take on things. Not sure if you have a strong disliked for Bichette causing biased. The 3 yr WAR avg was heavily influenced by injury. Aside from 2024 he’s not missed significant time to injury nor has he had chronic reoccurring injuries . If he stays healthy last year will be behind him. That said it will have an impact, but that impact is he’ll not be getting a contract like Vlad. I see something right around Swanson, which because of inflation won’t b as equal as it looks in regards to when Swanson signed. I’d assume it will also have opt outs. These I’m not a fan of, if player falters contract becomes anchor if they succeed they are gone. I’m usually much more player not owner, this opt out trend has been very one sided though.
Two, but thanks for not paying attention. Losing 17% of the season is significant.
The Blue Jays said that the 3 injuries over two seasons were related.
Its not arbitrary, its what POBOs say they use. What is arbitrary is what you have been trying to say.
Pads fan, Bichette is the type of player you can’t really use “on pace for” in a couple of months of play. His production clusters because of his profile. There’s not really the high skill good approach that keeps his floor up when he’s not hot. So he has very high peaks and very long valleys. In ‘22 he was into the middle of August with a sub .300 OBP before running so hot for 6 weeks that his overall season line looked good. The opposite in ‘23 where he was super hot out of the gate for the first couple of months before everything tanked the rest of the way. So this season, “on pace for” is not what I’d say is a likely outcome. If this stretch is his ‘22 long slow start before he finds his hot stretch, it’s a good floor and he could bring that WAR total up a big chunk when he taps into his ceiling for a hot stretch. But if this stretch is more akin to his hot start to ‘23 before he wears down and is unproductive for a good stretch, then it’s not as high a peak as in the past and if it’s followed by the typical long stretch that’s closer to his floor, that could be a way lower outcome. He’s volatile in that regard. I think that also makes him a riskier profile in free agency and a likelier fit for some front offices over others.
He is on his career average with the bat, so pretty safe to say “on pace for” as a basis of predicting his seasonal production as long as he stays healthy. Health has caused most of his dips and spikes in production the last 3 seasons so it is the biggest question mark.
This is not how any team would value a player lol. If there is an outlier, injury season, it is viewed as just that, an outlier.
You don’t get a discount by reducing the average over 3 year period:
It is EXACTLY how multiple POBOs and former POBOs including Dan O’Dowd, Steve Phillips, Jim Bowden and more recently Dave Dombrowski in spring training this season have said they value players in FA. But hey, keep on believing what you want. More power to you. I am going with the guys that have done the job.
dombrowski gave trea 300+ mil coming off a down year
odowd, Bowden and Philips aren’t making baseball decisions anymore. These are your sources? You named one guy with a job, who’s last big signing contradicts your point.
To add facts to your opinion of 1.
Ohtani’s 3 prior years he averaged 5 WAR, that would a be a 35 mil in value, of course he got much more.
Degrom averaged 3.3 in the 3 years prior, about $22 mil in value, he got 40 a year.
Only close example I found was Matt Chapman averaged 3.5 WAR in the 3 years, but he got a 6 year deal at age 31 season so probably took a fair market AAV to get an extra year or two.
You’re trying play free agency with a spreadsheet, it’s not how it works. Teams very much pay for potential, ticket sales, eye balls, vibes all while trying to improve over competition, you’re over simplifying the process by a wide margin.
On the simplest possible plane, you’d take the past three season, applying weights of 3, 2, and 1 to the latest through the oldest. But that’s Joey-level analysis for fantasy purposes.
If, for example, a player misses all of 2025 with a non-recurring injury, you aren’t giving him a -0- for the year. And age matters. A 32 year old with a bad season is treated differently than a 26 year old with a bad season.
And 28 year olds are rarely finished.
@Joe Well said. Much of these comments people are pointing at things such as WAR and nothing else. This is a player who is going to sign an 8 or 9 figure deal. They ll be looking into all if his stats, analytics, view film, and medicals. Age, shape, health, etc all would obviously be weighed in as well like you pointed out.
To simply say his 2, 3, 4,…/yr WAR average is xxx doesn’t do much when not accounting for any contributing factors. Not sure why the desire to attack the player but that’s what it seems. When healthy he’s a solid bat average defensive MI with alot of name recognition. In todays game power is a premium and if that doesn’t rebound I’d say that could be the thing some teams are turned off.by.
I know that ALL of them are better sources than you are. That is a given. That you don’t pay attention to guys that have had the job and have it currently says ALL we need to know about the value of your opinion.
You are quoting Ohtani’s value as a hitter ONLY. What a joke.
Chapman got a 6 year deal AFTER he put up a 7.1 WAR season for the Giants. He averaged 5.1 WAR over the 3 seasons prior to signing the extension. He signed a 3/54 deal with options after year 1 and 2 when he entered FA after putting up a 3.8 WAR the 3 previous seasons.
Do you actually pay attention to baseball?
YOU are using that weighting, all the FO guys that mentioned it said was the most recent season weighted heavier.
If a player misses the final season they said they weighed the fact that he missed an entire season to an injury heavier than the production from 2 and 3 seasons ago. RARELY do players that miss an entire season return to put up baseline performance in their first season back.
Bichette’s injuries in 2023 and 2024 are related. A patellar tendon injury to his right knee and calf and hamstring injuries connected to the same knee. That is why staying healthy in 2025 is the biggest issue in determining what his value will be next offseason.
He had what was ultimately said to.be knee inflammation in July of 2023. He had calf staraim in June of 2024 that was reaggravated and them he ultimately broke a finger in Sept ending his season.
Strains are.muscle related. The patellar tendon which ultimately ended up being inflammation were in the sane leg. Trying to say they are related is grasping.
Oh so you’re saying that the dodgers took in to account ohtani’s arm injury, and factored him pitching as part of their projections and contract???.
I thought you and the big brains in the MLB only use the last 3 years WAR as projections.
You make no sense, you think you’re right because you’re arguing both side of the fence. Stick to fantasy baseball, you’re not smart enough to be a nerd.
Did a doctor tell you that? My goodness, I’ve never heard anyone try so hard and fail so miserably.
Maybe just let this go, we’ll all see who’s right in the offseason excel boy
No. That is not what the injuries were. Look at MLB official transactions. the TEAM said they were related. I will go with what MLB and the team said the injuries were, But thank you for trying to lie about them.
I am saying Ohtani PITCHED within the 3 seasons prior to signing with the Dodgers. I am also saying I have no more time for your uninformed stupidity.
No they are not related. A tendon is different than a muscle strain. You are trying to connect them because they are both part of leg, that is called correlation not causation.
outinleftfield
3 years/$60 million with an opt out after years 1 an 2.
============================
Closer to double that.
Joe, so 6 years/$120 million? That sounds like a good number. Still around the QO in terms of AAV, but double the length. At 28 years old that is a reasonable expectation. I would then think that he would not get the opt outs.
The key thing for me Joe is that he will be very close to the QO level as his AAV. 3 years or 6 years doesn’t really matter to me. What matters is that every player on the list in this article got a much larger AAV than Bichette will get.
I am thinking that he will want a deal that allows him to opt out after a year if he thinks he can improve his production after getting out of Toronto.
I am assuming he stays healthy all season, something he hasn’t done since 2022. If he has a right leg injury again, I doubt he gets any more than what he is earning now as an AAV for however many years.
Meh veteran player. These are the costly 8 figure w/o much impact signings. Most teams better off staying in-house to pay someone way less or in this case 2/25 with a motivating opt out.
The bigger question might be where would he sign? Going back to Toronto is obvious, but outside of that, there aren’t many shortstop-needy contenders out there that would/could pay.
Seattle? (move JP to second?)
Detroit?
Atlanta?
Dodgers?
I think you said it, the only team crazy enough to give a player like him big money is the team he currently plays for, thus Toronto.
A team will sign him as a second baseman. At age 28, besides hitting for average and holding on to his middling power, he needs to steal some bases (18-25) to get full value.
I wouldn’t expect him to resume stealing. Because of leg problems and reinjury concerns he hasn’t run much since 2022, and even then his baserunning overall cost him 3 runs over the course of the season.
MLBTR’s writer seems to want to pretend that 2024 didn’t happen, with lines such as “his fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.”
Bichette’s a 3-4 win player miscast as a SS, whose 2021 season can be discarded as an outlier given it will be 5 years away as of his FA, and who hasn’t been over 3.9 fWAR since 2022. What team is going to treat him as 1) a 5-win player, and act 2) as if 2024 didn’t happen?
SBs add very little value. Speed counts, but SBs? Not so very much.
Why doesn’t the legendary poster, Jack Strawb write for mlbtr?
I wonder if Colorado could be a potential landing spot. His father starred there, the huge outfield would fit him well collecting hits in bunches and the Rockies offense could use the help.
He seems likely to be the free agent forced to take a 2 or 3 year deal with an opt out after year 1. If that happens he’ll have a ton of suitors and lots of big markets in the mix.
They have Tovar. They could easily shift him to 2nd and he’d probably do well for them.
He is a very ordinary player with little power and as mentioned above just an average fielder if that. Teams are better off staying away from a big contract for a declining overrated player. If Boras is his agent he is really in trouble.
His stats on paper may look better than he really is. Power numbers declining. I cant say on his defense.
Come on he may not break the bank but he is a 27 year old with 18.5 career WAR. The very article you just read, or did you, has him as the third best free agent next year.
You guys care way too much about WAR.
Gomer, that says more about how bad of a FA year it is than how much value Bichette has.
Last season Bichette had a -0.3 bWAR. From 2022-2024 he averaged 2.7 bWAR. If he stays healthy and continues at his current pace this season then his 3 years prior to FA, 2023-2025, will also average 2.7 bWAR.
That is valuable, but not All Star player valuable like all the other players on that list of shortstops in the article. In fact, its exactly the MLB average for shortstops with a qualifying number of PA over the past 3 seasons. 2.7 WAR is worth $24-25 million on the FA market. The QO will be $21-22 million. On the pace he is on so far this season, he will get something between those two numbers. The question is for how many years.
@Pads Its also valuable to note that Bichette missed half of 2024 and was mostly playing injured the other half.
Do you think that having injury problems helps him?
Him having “had” issues with his right calf last year which is not a chronic injury nor has been reoccurring throughout his career, won’t necessarily hurt him either. If he stays healthy and keeps producing, that ll be 6 seasons out of his 7 seasons that were healthy and productive.
He was injured in 2023 as well when he missed 27 games to patellar tendinitis in his right knee and then a quad strain in the same area,
In 2024 he was on the IL twice with a right calf strain in the same area.
All in the same area around the right knee. So yes, its a chronic injury.
Obviously, the broken finger with less than 2 weeks to go in the 2024 season wasn’t a chronic injury.
The Jays said the injuries were related. but of course I should prefer YOUR informed opinion.
Actually what I read was information released from Jays. I ll provide a link. I also took the liberty of trying to substantiate your claim and not seeing anything where Jays made such a claim.
nytimes.com/athletic/5861303/2024/10/23/bo-bichett…
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38122931/blue-jays-bo-bich…
Maybe try MLB.com. The interview announcing the IL stint.
I ve provided links to relevant information. I’m not searching to validate your claims.
I don’t like the profile going forward. He’s homer dependent offensively because he doesn’t take walks. He’s also looking to get paid like a SS when he is likely to spend a much greater percentage of his upcoming contract at 2B or 3B than short. Someone will pay for the name because teams still seem to do that. But they won’t be proud of it in a few years.
Most players are free swingers. Even a singles hitter like Arraez never takes a walk. Surprised Boras doesnt represnet him. I am sure Scott would tell him him the moon. Correa may make 33m a year to age 37. He is hitting .236 2 Hr and 13 rbis. the Twins got Borassed. Bogaerts .250/3/20 at 25 mm.
Contracts have nothing to do with how the players are performing now and everything to do with how they performed in the 2-3 years prior to signing the contract.
Correa averaged 6.3 WAR in 2021-2022. 2020 wasn’t a full season, but he was in the top 5 among SS that season in bWAR.
THEN he signed a huge contract.
If he continues to produce at the same level for the rest of 2025, Bichette will have put up an average of 2.7 WAR from 2023-2025.
Do you see the difference?
He doesn’t have the arm for 3B. He is just average on routine throws at SS.
I’m hoping the Jays trade him at the deadline. They should be able to do much better than the pick they would get for a QO.
They could then resign him as a 2B
Trade would help his market too. The QO will drastically affect his earnings.
His arm is 31-37 percentile at shortstop the last 3 seasons. Far below MLB average.
7 years, $175 million, if he finishes 2025 with at least 4 WAR and top 10 in hits.
lol
“7 years, 175 million”…I’m not really sure that MLB GMs will factor in the opinions of Bo Bichette’s mom.
Not a chance
Maybe Dodgers. 10/$175. Something like the Smith contract.
I am assuming and betting on Bo sustaining the stats he put up in 2021 thru 2023. If he can replicate that kind of consistency, which is definitely in his wheelhouse, then he would be worth that kind of contract. (Also factoring in a wee bit of inflation).
Please don’t sign him Dodgers!
Only if most of that money is deferred.
He’s probably not gonna command the earning power as Dansby Swanson
From his performance trajectory he’s gone from a borderline $25M-$35M AAV 7-13 year time to maybe 4 years/$100M and then see what happens to possibly like 7 years/$150.5M and be grateful for that much overall type-if he’s to get what his current top of market value is based on his performance thus far.
He’s not a $200M+ player in any structure, at this point.
Maybe 9 years/$225M max?
“9 years/225M Max”…My name’s not actually “Max”, but those numbers do seem ridiculous.
Oh I think it’s likely unrealistic but I think salaries are up across the board relative to player value and some guys with name brand just get paid no matter what.
Like all of these deals, you only need one single sucker. One owner who thinks he goes over the top with him. Correa is a payroll bandit and his salary is unbelieveable for what he brings. I think you have already seen Bichettes career years. Of course Bogarts way overpaid. And Seager and Turner deals long term may go upside down.
Bichette to has metal plate or rod in his leg? Has he failed two physicals? Turner and Seeger MIGHT?? Really you are going to resort to might, but you don’t mention that they go down as huge values. The teams also have benefit of inflation to help improve value of these deals over time.
Two different contracts. Seager might put up 6-7 good seasons out of 10 before he goes south, since he was signed at age 28. That’s good value.
One could argue that Turner has already gone south, and he has 8 seasons left.
I’m aware they are separate contracts. The point was he tossed in both there names and arbitrarily speculated on the future providing zero insight. He also failed too mention the other possible outcome of staying productive. Coincidentally the latter is the one that doesn’t fit his narrative.
bo on a good team, where he doesn’t need to be a focal point will be good.
Can see him getting 6/150-180 pretty easily in the open market. Could see him going to the braves.
Jays will move Gimenez over to play SS
Yikes ! This article is detrimental to his earning power. He’s not going to have a market….at all. He should prob take whatever Toronto is willing to offer him.
When 95% of players peak at 28, it’s wild when a guy peaks at 25 then declines like he’s 35
All it takes is two teams to start bidding. Nobody, pro writer or not, predicted the salaries of backend starters to skyrocket either two or three years ago.
At 25 most players have little if any name recognition. By 30 these guys signing these huge deals are known by most baseball fans, they help generate revenue. Ultimately MLB is a business. Only 1 team wins World Series each year, every team generated hundred of million$ in revenue and pro sports are driven by star athletes.
another “show ME the money” guy
As scouted when Bo Bichette was in AA, “when his career is over and you look back it was be as a below average shortstop, injury prone becuase of his violent swing with a good bat. He is better suited at 2nd base and will likely end up there. He will not age well and likely experience injury in his core and wrists as he ages due to the violent swing. His arm is passable as a shortstop and he will not be able to play a reliable 3rd base due to his lack of arm strength. He tends to choke in big game situations and needs maturing.”
Ha ha. Old mate had reservations.
Early scouting reports on long term mlb players should be a thing.
That is awesome and probably correct.
Do you know who wrote that,?
Bichette is an average player who once was pretty good, but past result do not reflect future for him. He is no longer a power threat and not really a SB type player either.
Bichette is now a player who can hit for average, and play average to below average on the field. He might be a future 2B.
I’d say that the Red Sox version of Story is a good comp for Bichette going forward. How much should a team pay for that?
Why is Story a good comp? Is Bichette going to go into 2025 offseason with an injured elbow that will require surgery months later. A couple of seasons later is he going to be injured diving trying to make a play?? While you are at it can I please have winning PowerBall #s??
He’s slugging .450 over his last 30 games, which is just slightly lower this his career .464 mark. He got off to a slow start but looks back to normal over the last 5 weeks.
So failing to understand the ‘he is no longer a power threat’
I think the power ceiling has come down a lot because of the declining bat speed. I also think that has an effect on some of the other traits that made Bichette very successful on his balls in play. Like being able to be on time for fastballs and using the whole field. He’s only pulling 16% of his fly balls and no longer has that dynamic twitch that produced 115.5 mph top end power that he once had where the opposite field and CF HRs were more likely. We don’t know what his bat speed was when he was at that peak, but given he’s not a huge guy swinging a 42 oz. bat, I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that his raw power came from some well above average bat speeds that were much different than the 12th percentile bat speed this year. It’s too bad public bat speed metrics only go back to the ‘23 all star break because that’s around the time his batted ball metrics started to make you wonder if there was something going on with his bat speed. But if I was a front office executive, I’d want to have that measure for his earlier career if I’m trying to project him going forward. That timing also coincided with noticeable declines in his sprint speeds which are now closer to Alejandro Kirk territory than average, and defensive lateral range which is hidden a bit in the stat column because of fewer errors. So with other measures of athletic twitch declining at the same time as noticeable batted ball metrics changing, I do think Bo was indeed operating with more bat speed pre ‘23.
Bichette is pacing for 3.8 WAR over 162 games.
I think at best he should get 1 year/$18M or something- a token raise on this year’s salary and try to re-establish himself.
He will get a QO.
I’m talking on the open market. I know the Q.O. is gonna be around $22M- so I guess he’d take that if he believed the best he’d do otherwise is a 1 year deal for less money than the Q.O.- unless the Blue Jays genuinely want to move on from him… in which case they’d rather not risk him accepting the Q.O.- because that does happen with some guys. Teams proffer the Q.O. thinking there’s no way the guy will accept it and then they play themselves when the player knows that it’s way more than they’d make on the open market on any deal and take the massive overpay.
Barring a bad injury, you won’t be close. My guess is $156M/6.
IMO, way too many posters over-emphasizing his weak start. He has a .933 OPS in his last 18 games.
I mean I wasn’t that far off, I still thought he could wind up with 4-7 years at $25M AAV, I just don’t see him getting $200M etc on principle.
I said above:
“From his performance trajectory he’s gone from a borderline $25M-$35M AAV 7-13 year time to maybe 4 years/$100M and then see what happens to possibly like 7 years/$150.5M and be grateful for that much overall type-if he’s to get what his current top of market value is based on his performance thus far.
He’s not a $200M+ player in any structure, at this point.”
And I said that because I think, in some cases, there is this psychological barrier in the game where it’s just understood some guys aren’t worth a certain amount, so it’s why they’re offered $x,999,999 or their contract is for $xx,999,999 etc rather than just that full number that reaches a particular threshold of the next ten or hundred spot in millions.
Kinda like when Pavano got $39,995,000 or whatever from the Yankees and they wouldn’t go to a full $10M AAV for him.
And I think Bichette will be that kind of player.
You said:
“I think at best he should get 1 year/$18M:
My guess is that you will be off by $138,000,000. If he gets hurt, sure. But even including last year’s disaster, he’s been a 4.6 bWAR/162 for his career and will only be just 28 when 2026 starts.
Pads Fans
Aren’t you overemphasizing 3 weeks.
==========================
I’m trying not to, but BB is tough to put a target on. But from 2019-2023, he averaged 5.4 bWAR/162. That includes two short seasons for his rookie year and Covid. But that’s pretty good.
He was awful last year, but he might’ve been carrying around family baggage.
That leaves 2025 when he’s been bad for a half-season and good for a half-season. If he continues the bad part, then he’ll get less. But I’m betting that he reverts to his usual stats.
Aren’t you overemphasizing 3 weeks over what he has done the last 3 seasons, especially for a player that is notoriously streaky? His production over the last 3 seasons is worth about $24 million per season in free agency. That seems like a reasonable ceiling for predicting the AAV of his next contract.
His last 5 weeks have been to almost his exact career norm. How is that the outlier? lol man you suck at this, too emotional
What will a SS that has averaged 2.7 WAR from 2022-2024 with 2024 being -0.3 WAR earn in FA? Unless 2025 is huge, and right now he is on pace for 3.9 WAR this season, he is going to make less than Adames, who averaged 3.6 WAR from 2021-2024, on an AAV basis.
What do I think he will get? A 2-3 deal at about the QO number with an opt out after year one.
This WAR average you keep using is skewed by him missing half of 2024. Yes the injury did happen, but like any statistic they should not be viewed alone. There are almost always contributing factors involved in statistics and those factors very by individual.
Unless he has another bad year this year, I think most GMs will rely on his career numbers. He has a 4.6 bWAR/162. Bogaerts had a 4.4 with the RS before signing for $280M. And Bogaerts was 2 years older at the time of the signing.
I think BB is more in the Dansby echelon, and even that was still $177M/7.
Joe, FO don’t rely on 6 -7 years to determine a FA contract today. They look at the last 3 seasons and weight the most recent season heavier in the equation. We know that to be a fact because multiple POBOs and former POBOs have said that is how its done.
They also take into account how much time a player missed to injury, not just the peak that /162 will indicate.
Bogaerts last 3 FULL seasons in Boston were 6.3, 5.2 and 5.7 WAR. That was 2019, 2021, and 2022. In those 3 seasons he played 450 games. The combination of top 5 in MLB WAR at SS and the top of MLB durability is why he got paid the big bucks overall and he stil only got $25.5 million AAV.
BTW, Bogaerts WAR/162 was 5.9 from 2019-2022. An order of magnitude higher than Bichette.
The ability to stay healthy will definitely factor into his earning power, so the average WAR stands. He was injured in both 2023 and 2024 and both years they were related to the area around his right knee.
IF he can stay healthy this season, his earning power may go up a little. He still will earn less AAV than Adames.
If memory serves, the Rangers signed Semien before Seager, right? So, that deal was probably viewed as for a shortstop. He certainly was a shortstop caliber defender at the time.
Him and Seeger were signed on same day. Semien had played the season prior in TOR playing 2B. Seager got larger deal with more yrs and higher AAV. It was stated that day Seager signed for SS and Semien 2B
Bichette has six post season hits. Let him walk, he’s Mitch Marner.
Of those shortstops, at the time, I would have ranked them Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson. Bogaerts was a maybe. His defense was a huge turnoff. I wouldn’t have bothered with the rest of them. The rest I would have rather tried a AAA prospect and hoped for the best.
In hindsight… I would have only taken Seager and Turner. The rest have been mid.
That being said, I don’t think I would get too excited about Bichette.
Indicating clearly why you don’t work in baseball at any level.
Who is going to pay it? Very few spenders have a need. His market is Atlanta and Jays right now. Not much of an upgrade for Nats to move Abrams to 2nd.
In other words….
The price of a hotdog is going up
……again….
I’ll predict he gets 6/120, and the winning bidder will regret it down the road.
Just gonna be another overpaid, overvalued athlete. Worst case scenario he gets that ridiculous high AAV short opt out deal that’s becoming common. (Chapman, Bregman, Alonso, Monty)
Many of the people on that list are not earning their insane salary this season, in my opinion
Big contracts should be loaded with incentive clauses and escalators for performance.
Otherwise, you have players who sign massive deals, getting too comfortable, lazy and “dogging it”.
See: Soto’s 1st 6 months in San Diego when he played like a 5M or 10M player.
See Soto with the Mets turning automatic doubles into singles because he is not running out his hits.
787M Guaranteed may become the worst MLB contract ever.
See Javier Baez who stopped producing entirely and went into a a long term funk after cashing in with a big contract in Detroit. Baez was cashing the Tigers huge checks shamelessly and playing worse than a AAA player who was washed up. Then Baez miraculously emerges as a major league player again once the Tigers opened a new window of contention and Baez was in danger of being DFAed.??!!
Contracts, pay, revenues could use some serious reforms in MLB, but it may never happen since the sides may never agree on the details of reforms.
The only incentives a player can earn are for playing time and awards. There are no performance clauses allowed in the CBA.
He’s a terrible fielder who lost his power and doesn’t steal a ton of bases either. What am I paying monster dollars for?
You’re paying “monster dollars” to keep Hal’s Yankee Stadium II operating
lol!! Yankees will sell regardless.
No offense to any of you boomers who commented on this post, but Bichette is getting 11+yrs/$300+M
From the Pirates?
Thanks for the good belly laugh. Needed that this morning.
Probably from the Pads. They collect shortstops
There shouldn’t be commas around “too.”