This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.
Ralph asks:
What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?
My take is that it's much ado about nothing.
The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it? Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances. He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.
Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball. One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring. I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).
I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines. Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.
The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks. To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24. And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.
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The Dodgers trading for Amed Rosario would be actually hilarious
As soon as the ink is dry on their ultra long 10+ year deals, player effort level, durability, accountability and productivity drops radically.
Next, we’ll begin to hear about all the debilitating, body injuries he’s been playing thru and didn’t want to talk about…until now.
Not totally disagreeing w/your premise, but Austin Riley is an example of that not being entirely true of every 10 year deal—especially w/regard to “effort level, durability, and productivity.” I’d say that Jose Ramirez is also in the Riley camp but his deal was a 7 year extension. That doesn’t fit the “10+ year deal” requirement. How about Judge? Don’t believe anyone questions his effort level, productivity, or accountability. Durability maybe.
Austin Riley is underperforming Soto and he’s the one you use to compare against Soto?
Riley’s 3 years into a 10 year deal that he’s not underperforming in any way w/regard to mlb fans comment. I used him and Judge as examples of players who don’t fit the criteria mlbfan used to critique 10 + year deals. I didn’t mention a single word about Soto. Try not to move the goal posts to fit your narrative.
His OPS is down 100 pts in each of his last two years. He’s very much underperforming and The Braves record has declined with his decline. The whole conversation was geared around Soto as he was the point of the article. So Riley is 100% in the criteria of a player getting a long deal and going into a decline after the signing.
The Braves record declined because they played without Strider and Acuña last year. Riley got off to a god awful start , but has raked since mid April. He just hasn’t slugged like he’s capable of yet. Some of that is probably due more to a change in offensive philosophies under a new hitting coach. Most Braves players’ slugging is down this year. But Riley, along with the rotation, might be the 2 biggest reasons the Braves have been able to dig out of their 1st week hole so quickly. Exactly zero Braves fans are complaining about Riley’s contract right now. It’s not hard to just spout stuff off, and leave out all context.
“His OPS is down 100 pts in each of his last two years.” Wow—-what a misrepresentation of facts. Riley played 110 games in 24 because he was hit by a pitch that broke his wrist. He’s played 48 games this season. You’re claiming that’s “two years” worth of stats? You’re “100%” claim is as worthless as the rest of your numbers. Riley signed his 10 year deal in August of 22. His OPS that season was .877. OPS in 23 was .861. You’re trying to suggest that a year in which he played 110 games before his wrist was broken and his numbers in 48 games this season is proof of “a decline.”? What a disingenuous argument.
Especially when he’s been the Braves best player this year, his power has just been less consistent, but that’s true of every player in their lineup. And there’s plenty of data to suggest that a lot of that is due to new offensive philosophies under a new hitting coach. They’re taking more pitches (which is a bad thing in my opinion), ambushing less, and their number of fast swings is down dramatically, not just with Riley. So singling him out is honestly kind of weird.
Also odd to single him out after an injury shortened season in which he played in 2/3 of games (110) and a 48 game short sample size of this season and then pretend that’s a “two year decline.”
And that that Braves record declining was due solely to Riley’s decline and not all the injuries the Braves had last year and being without Strider and Acuña to start this year, when they had the best record in baseball in ‘23. Hahahahaha
I think if one looks at last year’s slow offensive start one may come to the conclusion that the team is merely doing the same thing, to a degree, and that the hitting coach has little to do with this. Just an underperforming group. But let’s not make this a braves thread, tempting as it is, just because there’s always some Mets fan getting triggered.
Are you serious? 110 games is not a small portion size. His numbers have declined. I don’t know what your arguing about.
You are the one to bring him up as your example. No one singled him out.
It’s about 2/3 of one season. That’s it. And last year the entire Braves roster was a mess and then he got hurt. Lots of very very good players have had a less-productive 4 months (which is what 110 games actually is).
@Mets One of the best hitters in baseball has been missing from that lineup. The impact from that void has an affect up and down the lineup.
Most of mlb fan’s comments where he doesnt get political still have a common theme, entrenching his anti player position. He should be on a Forbes message board discussing the owners since he’s clearly against those actually playing the sport.
This claim that players production, durability, and accountability drop is laughable. Of course just lime people who jump on walk year performance, claims are made with zero data backing the claims. Same people are always absent in discussions of players living upto their large deals or under performing in walk years.
@Fowler It is absolutely laughable that he’s trying to place the blame square on Riley. When a team is missing one of best hitters and one of top pitchers it’s clearly going to have a huge impact.
Mets has a habit of presenting false opinions as fact. Mlb fan is a political zealot whose entire view of the world is tainted by the echo chamber of political polarization he’s stuck in.
Like Bobby witt and Corbin Carroll?
@rachel Sssshhh… we are not supposed to mention anything against the narrative they are pushing, no dats either. Those things almost always blow up their most always false claims.
I think people are forgetting Soto had an adjustment period when he went to the Padres, putting up a 127 OPS+ that was actually worse than his current 134 OPS+.
And as good as Polar Bear has been this year, it’s not the same as having Judge hit behind him.
He’ll improve on the hitting, but I wouldn’t expect him to hustle anytime soon. He’s not playing for anything ….. he’s got his championship ring and his lifetime contract, nothing left to motivate him.
Historically almost every Mets super star addition has struggled in their first season. Once the likes of Beltran and Lindor got through it they went back to hall of fame careers.
I agree with this as far as results are concerned. Soto seems unhappy and uninterested, though, and that is not a good sign.
I don’t know about that. He the first big player to switch from one New York team to another in free agency. I’m sure his life isn’t easy in NY this year. It will settle down.
I don’t know what he would have ever been thinking of if he didn’t expect to get bashed to hell by thousands of Yankee fans by accepting a deal to the Mets. Soto doesn’t freaking care what anyone thinks of him now because he has 765,000,000 reasons to not care! If I was guaranteed that much money regardless of rather I played hard or just showed up occasionally to say I tried to play through the “injuries”, I just wouldn’t freaking care about your opinion. If he tanks out the rest of his career, gets DFA’d two or three years into the contract, he still has those 765,000,000 reasons to not really care about your opinion on his life because his great grandchildren will never have to work again. That’s why huge contracts of guaranteed money is usually not worth the ink it’s printed with except to prove that insanity is millions of people actually thinking any of these sports stars really care about your opinions, comments or concerns once they reach this pinnacle. The true sadness is that millions continue to whine and complain about the same problems but continue to support them by buying merch, spending $40 on a beer and dog, spending hundreds per seat at a game in mid season that determines nothing, so on and so forth. Got to love how many people keep making stupid assertions that their opinions really matter. All that matters is the fact you show up, you spend, and you continue to participate in the insanity.
Bb – His first at-bat tonight, 3-pitch strikeout with the final strike looking … I have never seen him look so bad.
Actually all 3 strikes were looking, he never swung the bat.
Soto tonight:
7 pitches total
1 Ball
6 Called strikes
Soto tonight:
3 strikeouts on 10 pitches combined
Wow!
@Mets – Probably a result of their initial state of depression once they fully realize that they are playing for the Mets. Lots of therapy and a few pills a day however and they mostly seem to work their way through it by the second season.
Meta are a huge fluke. I forsee 84 wins and a third place finish
how old really is SOTO ?