This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.
Ralph asks:
What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?
My take is that it's much ado about nothing.
The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it? Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances. He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.
Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball. One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring. I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).
I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines. Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.
The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks. To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24. And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.
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The Dodgers trading for Amed Rosario would be actually hilarious
As soon as the ink is dry on their ultra long 10+ year deals, player effort level, durability, accountability and productivity drops radically.
Next, we’ll begin to hear about all the debilitating, body injuries he’s been playing thru and didn’t want to talk about…until now.
Not totally disagreeing w/your premise, but Austin Riley is an example of that not being entirely true of every 10 year deal—especially w/regard to “effort level, durability, and productivity.” I’d say that Jose Ramirez is also in the Riley camp but his deal was a 7 year extension. That doesn’t fit the “10+ year deal” requirement. How about Judge? Don’t believe anyone questions his effort level, productivity, or accountability. Durability maybe.
Austin Riley is underperforming Soto and he’s the one you use to compare against Soto?
Riley’s 3 years into a 10 year deal that he’s not underperforming in any way w/regard to mlb fans comment. I used him and Judge as examples of players who don’t fit the criteria mlbfan used to critique 10 + year deals. I didn’t mention a single word about Soto. Try not to move the goal posts to fit your narrative.
His OPS is down 100 pts in each of his last two years. He’s very much underperforming and The Braves record has declined with his decline. The whole conversation was geared around Soto as he was the point of the article. So Riley is 100% in the criteria of a player getting a long deal and going into a decline after the signing.
The Braves record declined because they played without Strider and Acuña last year. Riley got off to a god awful start , but has raked since mid April. He just hasn’t slugged like he’s capable of yet. Some of that is probably due more to a change in offensive philosophies under a new hitting coach. Most Braves players’ slugging is down this year. But Riley, along with the rotation, might be the 2 biggest reasons the Braves have been able to dig out of their 1st week hole so quickly. Exactly zero Braves fans are complaining about Riley’s contract right now. It’s not hard to just spout stuff off, and leave out all context.
“His OPS is down 100 pts in each of his last two years.” Wow—-what a misrepresentation of facts. Riley played 110 games in 24 because he was hit by a pitch that broke his wrist. He’s played 48 games this season. You’re claiming that’s “two years” worth of stats? You’re “100%” claim is as worthless as the rest of your numbers. Riley signed his 10 year deal in August of 22. His OPS that season was .877. OPS in 23 was .861. You’re trying to suggest that a year in which he played 110 games before his wrist was broken and his numbers in 48 games this season is proof of “a decline.”? What a disingenuous argument.
Especially when he’s been the Braves best player this year, his power has just been less consistent, but that’s true of every player in their lineup. And there’s plenty of data to suggest that a lot of that is due to new offensive philosophies under a new hitting coach. They’re taking more pitches (which is a bad thing in my opinion), ambushing less, and their number of fast swings is down dramatically, not just with Riley. So singling him out is honestly kind of weird.
Also odd to single him out after an injury shortened season in which he played in 2/3 of games (110) and a 48 game short sample size of this season and then pretend that’s a “two year decline.”
And that that Braves record declining was due solely to Riley’s decline and not all the injuries the Braves had last year and being without Strider and Acuña to start this year, when they had the best record in baseball in ‘23. Hahahahaha
I think if one looks at last year’s slow offensive start one may come to the conclusion that the team is merely doing the same thing, to a degree, and that the hitting coach has little to do with this. Just an underperforming group. But let’s not make this a braves thread, tempting as it is, just because there’s always some Mets fan getting triggered.
Are you serious? 110 games is not a small portion size. His numbers have declined. I don’t know what your arguing about.
You are the one to bring him up as your example. No one singled him out.
It’s about 2/3 of one season. That’s it. And last year the entire Braves roster was a mess and then he got hurt. Lots of very very good players have had a less-productive 4 months (which is what 110 games actually is).
@Mets One of the best hitters in baseball has been missing from that lineup. The impact from that void has an affect up and down the lineup.
Most of mlb fan’s comments where he doesnt get political still have a common theme, entrenching his anti player position. He should be on a Forbes message board discussing the owners since he’s clearly against those actually playing the sport.
This claim that players production, durability, and accountability drop is laughable. Of course just lime people who jump on walk year performance, claims are made with zero data backing the claims. Same people are always absent in discussions of players living upto their large deals or under performing in walk years.
@Fowler It is absolutely laughable that he’s trying to place the blame square on Riley. When a team is missing one of best hitters and one of top pitchers it’s clearly going to have a huge impact.
Mets has a habit of presenting false opinions as fact. Mlb fan is a political zealot whose entire view of the world is tainted by the echo chamber of political polarization he’s stuck in.
Anybody who doesn’t believe a hitting Coach will make a difference should look at the Cardinals. Why they put up with the one they had for the last three or four years. I have no idea he must’ve had naked pictures of somebody.
Don’t disagree they make a difference. But last year was exactly the same thing. Some of it is having streaky hitters but the last two years the team has not stepped up offensively. Acuna was league average when playing last year. Riley and Olsen weren’t hitting much of the year. Murphy didn’t hit. Harris wasn’t very good most of the year. Albies was the same. They all started slowly. So it wouldnt be logical to say for sure it’s the hitting coach. If anything their approach has improved but many of the players have been hot one week and cold three weeks. Just streaky so far
I’d argue Tatis and Machado are living up to their 10+ years contracts… the book is out on Merrill but he looked great before he got hurt earlier. Teams take a calculated gamble on ROI; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Good “arguments” and examples from Nashville Jeff, Fowlerrc and Tiger3232.
That Machado deal is a monstrosity. It’s only in like year 2 and although he is still good he is in decline. The other two deals are fine. They have done such a good job with the farm over the years and even with the Soto trade they ended up getting a good pitcher eventually but I wish I could see what the team would look like if they had never made all those trades from Fried on. I think they’d be in a better position long term but at least the city has had a good team to root for. But they threw out money too carelessly
The same thing is happening this year.
Yea. That’s my point. But Riley has been better than usual much of this year. He’s always been a slow starter. And Murphy has been good. Olson is always streaking. Really it’s Albies and Harris. But in fairness to Harris he has had many huge hits and won them several games with his glove and timely hits. But again IDK why Mets fans are always on here attacking the Braves. I mean I do but it’s annoying. My whole life I hear the media talk down to Braves fans cause they aren’t yelling drunks generally at games but why is that not a good thing? The northeast fanbases are collectively on some repressed tribal stuff over a game. Always attacking.
Tatis is underpaid, silly as that sounds
I should note that my statements assume you’re all aware that the Braves changed hitting coaches after 2024.
A PED user is not underpaid. He should owe money to the Padres.
Laughs at this clown take in aaron judge, bobby witt Jr and any number of other guys performing on big deals lol
I think people are forgetting Soto had an adjustment period when he went to the Padres, putting up a 127 OPS+ that was actually worse than his current 134 OPS+.
And as good as Polar Bear has been this year, it’s not the same as having Judge hit behind him.
He’ll improve on the hitting, but I wouldn’t expect him to hustle anytime soon. He’s not playing for anything ….. he’s got his championship ring and his lifetime contract, nothing left to motivate him.
What ring
2024 – 2019
Wire to wire
Ring with Nationals
lol I forgot all about that
Polar Bear has been awful in May.
I used to hate polar bear, but now he’s one of my favorite players after he threw a fit before he signed his contract. He deserved better.
I actually hope that he gets pissed at Soto and slaps that wise ass grin off his face.
Earn it Soto
Dad: You seriously want players to fight each other, even teammates? That’s strange.
Historically almost every Mets super star addition has struggled in their first season. Once the likes of Beltran and Lindor got through it they went back to hall of fame careers.
I agree with this as far as results are concerned. Soto seems unhappy and uninterested, though, and that is not a good sign.
I don’t know about that. He the first big player to switch from one New York team to another in free agency. I’m sure his life isn’t easy in NY this year. It will settle down.
I don’t know what he would have ever been thinking of if he didn’t expect to get bashed to hell by thousands of Yankee fans by accepting a deal to the Mets. Soto doesn’t freaking care what anyone thinks of him now because he has 765,000,000 reasons to not care! If I was guaranteed that much money regardless of rather I played hard or just showed up occasionally to say I tried to play through the “injuries”, I just wouldn’t freaking care about your opinion. If he tanks out the rest of his career, gets DFA’d two or three years into the contract, he still has those 765,000,000 reasons to not really care about your opinion on his life because his great grandchildren will never have to work again. That’s why huge contracts of guaranteed money is usually not worth the ink it’s printed with except to prove that insanity is millions of people actually thinking any of these sports stars really care about your opinions, comments or concerns once they reach this pinnacle. The true sadness is that millions continue to whine and complain about the same problems but continue to support them by buying merch, spending $40 on a beer and dog, spending hundreds per seat at a game in mid season that determines nothing, so on and so forth. Got to love how many people keep making stupid assertions that their opinions really matter. All that matters is the fact you show up, you spend, and you continue to participate in the insanity.
I hope someone in the locker room straightens him out.
Bb – His first at-bat tonight, 3-pitch strikeout with the final strike looking … I have never seen him look so bad.
Actually all 3 strikes were looking, he never swung the bat.
Soto tonight:
7 pitches total
1 Ball
6 Called strikes
Soto tonight:
3 strikeouts on 10 pitches combined
Wow!
FPG: Don’t draw conclusions about a player from a tiny sample size or anything.
Blue – So I’m not allowed to draw the conclusion he’s in a slump right now?
Well alrighty then ;o)
FPG: Go ahead and knock yourself out. But 10 pitches is ridiculous.
Blue – I totally agree! I can’t recall a superstar ever striking out in 3 consecutive PA’s on just 10 pitches … especially a guy like Soto who is famous for his excellent command of the strike zone.
As for the slump, it’s now just 5 hits (all singles) in 45 PA’s to go along with 12 K’s ….. a .143 BA and .454 OPS
Do you think it’s the worst 45 PA stretch in his career? Just may be ……
bbgods: “Soto seems unhappy and uninterested.”
How do you actually know that other than from things you’ve been fed by media.
No great MLB player reaches and remains at that level if they’re “uninterested.”
Blue – Rendon was a 7-WAR player when he signed with the Angels.
Outside of injuries his words and behavior have given most people the impression he’s uninterested.
Soto hasn’t done himself any favors this past week.
FPG: How is Rendon relevant to Soto?
Blue – Okay I get it, you’re saying Rendon was never a “great” player.
I respect your opinion, although obviously most people (and the Angels) think/thought otherwise about Rendon with the Nats :O)
I know from watching his body language and comparing it to the way he looked before.
Not saying Rendon wasn’t a great player. I just don’t get the connection to Soto.
Blue – You’d have to ask yourself, as you are the one who wrote this in defense of Soto:
“No great MLB player reaches and remains at that level if they’re “uninterested.””
In the history of sports, there have been many players who performed at a high level strictly by talent alone. And once they got the fat contract, not so much.
How many pitches did it take for Bregman to strike out four times last night?
Mets – To his credit, Bregman battled during some of those strikeouts.
23 pitches for the 4 K’s.
But it was the first time in his entire career that he struck out 4 times in a game., which is amazing in itself.
Still I think he was playing way over his head earlier in the season, I expected him to cool off.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Way to use selection bias and deflect rebuttals. Plenty of pro athletes have also continued to excel after signing megadeals.
You and MLB Fan love pushing your false narratives pretending to know something which you both don’t and it shows.
Torpedo – Apparently you didn’t read my first post in which I defended Soto by stating this is likely just an adjustment period and he will eventually improve on the hitting.
Also, where did I write that ALL players who signed mega-deals no longer performed at a high level?
Your inability to comprehend written words has caused you to have unjustified feelings of superiority, and it shows.
Blue Baron
Actually unhappy and uninterested are very different
I watch games on MLB and he sometimes looks unhappy. That is ok, he wants to do better, both individually and the team.
Other than two at-bats where Soto did not hustle out of the box, there is nothing that suggests he is uninterested.
MLB – Soto is not on my team so I haven’t watched him much this season, but if his lack of hustle has been a season-long thing then yes that would be a sign of disinterest.
BTW – His defense has been really bad as well this year.
3rd-worst OAA of all 64 Qualified MLB outfielders, same with Range.
When you are the highest paid athlete in all team sports, there are expectations. I can understand fans who are not happy with his performance to date.
Exactly. My comment was focused on uninterested.
Nobody watching on TV can possibly know about a player’s happiness or lack thereof .
Blue – Agreed!
I suppose fans could say he’s not smiling or laughing or being playful like he was last year, but it’s impossible to know why. Maybe he’s got family issues, who knows …. could be anything.
Blue Baron
Not to make a moutain out of a mole hill, but we are saying different things.
I absolutely on television or internet can watch a game and see whether AT A PARTICULAR MOMENT whether a player is happy or not. You can see the raw emotion manifest itself even among more reserved players you can compare it to their baseline for players that you have watched many times before.
I am not suggesting that he is unhappy in his life or unhappy that he chose changing teams. I am a baseball fan not a psychologist. I am saying that there are a few games where he looked unhappy with his performance, with the team’s performance, or with calls at the plate. I have seen just two times where he did not hustle out of the box. Almost every player has one or two times where they don’t hustle at the right time.
I do not question Soto’s bat he will be doing very well for many years, he is doing well now, just his stature makes even a small tick decline over a hundred or so at-bats get scrutiny.
My only question to this contract ever was that I think that it should be factored in that he will be a DH in five years.
Like I said, I expect him to be hitting close to 0.300 in average by the end of the year, so many walks makes it take longer for the average to rise. The change in home ballpark dimensions may cost him a couple home runs.
MLB – Great post!
Just one minor detail regarding your last paragraph ….. lots of walks can make the batting average go up or down faster, because the fewer AB’s (as opposed to PA’s) the larger the jumps/drops in average.
@Mets – Probably a result of their initial state of depression once they fully realize that they are playing for the Mets. Lots of therapy and a few pills a day however and they mostly seem to work their way through it by the second season.
I found the sad guy.
how old really is SOTO ?
gav – My understanding is he knows all the lyrics to “Rico Suave” so ………
Soto has 6 games coming up against the Rockies. He will likely get 10-15 hits in those 6 games and be perfectly fine going forward.
hiflew – Thank you, it’s amazing how so few people here take the quality of competition into consideration when evaluating player and/or team performance.
My team now has the O’s for four (maybe just 3 because of weather) and looking at the 4 Baltimore SP’s scheduled, I fully expect 3-4 lopsided wins for the Sox with the inevitable group of fans claiming Campbell, Rafaela and Story have “broken out of their slump” ….. until they soon face the Braves and Yankees.
For all the analytics we have today, I would love to have an offensive “Strength of Opponent Pitchers” stat that takes into consideration the pitchers they’ve faced.
They have a Strength of Schedule stat already, so why not a “Strength of Opponent Pitchers”?
The Red Sox will still probably win the AL east. Their lineup is just to good over a season.
Mets – I wish, but realistically it would take an injury to Fried and/or Judge for that to be possible.
The Red Sox need to stay healthy and call up Mayer & Anthony.
In a couple weeks the two teams go head to head for 6 games, that will be huge. Sox are 7 back in the loss column right now, they can’t afford to fall any further out.
Mike Piazza went through a similar experience in 1998:
nypost.com/2025/05/21/sports/mike-piazza-knows-exa…
The change in home ballparks will very slightly reduce homers, but his batting average will be close to 0.300 by season’s end.
The fact that a slow, unathletic bat-only player with zero complementary skills and little off-field value is paid more than the greatest free agent in baseball history is just the definition of insanity. Even Boras knows this.
“The evaluation of Ohtani wasn’t anywhere near the true value of the player,” Boras said. “Ohtani brings $150-250 million in revenue to a team. Ohtani also pitches. And Ohtani is also an MVP hitter. So, when you look at this, it’s going to be very easy to say that reflecting on what an MVP-type bat is worth in Juan Soto, then you evaluate Ohtani and see what he’s worth.”
When asked how much he thinks Ohtani is worth, Boras said: “He’s a billion-dollar player, for sure.”
“The global rights of teams have yet to be exhibited. And Ohtani is proof of that. He brings Japan, Korea, the Asian market, 200 million people to the region rights. The Dodgers get to sell their regional broadcasting rights internationally, and everyone can buy them to watch one player.”
Ohtani’s impact on the game is unprecedented. Many local MLB fans may not realize the implications of a team being able to sell its regional broadcast rights internationally. With Ohtani on the roster, it becomes significantly easier for the Dodgers to market their broadcasts to the global markets Boras referenced.
Boras added: “He is so uniquely skilled on the field, in addition to the fact that he pays for himself times four with the revenue he brings in. He’s created something that is unheard of to a sports franchise.”
m.youtube.com/watch?v=xM9FwiRNFOA&t=7802s
profootballnetwork.com/mlb/scott-boras-shohei-ohta…
sportico.com/personalities/athletes/2025/mlb-highe…
Ohtani could’ve deferred less eclipsing Soto’s salary. I doubt he cares where his year-end income comes from which dwarfs Soto’s. His $75M signing bonus is one-time only.