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Poll: Can Jeremy Pena Keep This Up?

By Nick Deeds | May 23, 2025 at 6:39pm CDT

It’s been a struggle for the Astros to even keep their heads above water this year thanks to the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and a large number of lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing so far. And the rotation has virtually no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying just 2.5 games back in the AL West an impressive feat in its own right, even if the days of the dynasty that brought home two World Series championships appear to be over.

The development of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a major reason why they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs at all at this point. A third-rounder in the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with a brilliant season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has always been a valuable player thanks to his excellent work at shortstop but has never been more than a league average performer at the plate. Entering 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of exactly 100 during his MLB career.

As the Cubs demonstrated when they offered Dansby Swanson $177MM to become their starting shortstop, a league average bat with an excellent glove at shortstop is already incredibly valuable. Pena has seemingly taken his game to another level so far this year, however. He’s hitting an excellent .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. Those numbers aren’t exactly appearing at the top of any leaderboards this early in the season, when relatively small sample sizes allow baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting average or a 60-homer season virtually every year. But could Pena’s step forward be more sustainable than the typical hot start to a season?

There’s plenty of reason to believe that’s the case. One of the most positive changes in Pena’s profile is his substantially improved plate discipline. After striking out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest walk rate in the majors among hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances over the past three years, Pena is now one of just 19 qualified hitters with a strikeout rate under 14% this year (13.7%). He’s even walking a bit more frequently, with a 6.2% rate that grades out as merely below average rather than in the conversation for lowest in the league. Those improvements in plate discipline appear to be largely sustainable. Pena is swinging less often than ever (49.0%), and while that’s come with a decrease in swing rate inside the strike zone it’s also allowed him to cut down his swinging strike rate by nearly three points relative to his career norms.

While Pena’s increased passivity in the strike zone could be a cause for concern down the line, for now it seems as though swinging less often is doing wonders for his plate discipline. That willingness to take strikes inside the zone has been offset so far by increased power production. Pena’s .149 ISO to this point in the season doesn’t quite match his rookie campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it’s still ten points above his career norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for just 25 long balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound power proves to be sustainable, that could help Pena avoid opposing pitchers challenging him in the zone more often to exploit the fact that he’s begun to swing less often.

The underlying metrics on Pena’s power output are mixed, however. He’s hitting the ball hard more often than ever before with a 40.1% hard-hit rate that would be the best of his career, but his 6.8% barrel rate is not substantially different from his career 6.2% mark, his average exit velocity is virtually unchanged, and his max exit velocity is actually lower than ever before. His bat speed has actually come down slightly as well. It’s not all bad news, however: in addition to his aforementioned hard-hit rate improvements, Pena is squaring the ball up more often than ever before (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is more or less in line with his wOBA of .355, which suggests that he’s more or less earned his production to this point.

How do MLBTR readers feel about Pena’s strong start to the season? Is it a sustainable step forward for the young hitter, or will he revert back to average with time? Have your say in the poll below:

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Houston Astros MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jeremy Pena

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View Comments (15)
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15 Comments

  1. PhilliesBob1980

    4 weeks ago

    Wrong link for Pena. Goes to a minor league pitcher with same name.

    9
    Reply
    • LordD99

      4 weeks ago

      Yeah, but can the minor league pitcher keep it up?

      7
      Reply
      • WadeBoggsWildRide

        4 weeks ago

        No chance his swinging strike rate is terrible and hard hit rate is pretty bad. No way he sustains this kind of production.

        1
        Reply
  2. Greenwell

    4 weeks ago

    Link the right guy

    3
    Reply
  3. ❤️ MuteButton

    4 weeks ago

    I think Jeremy is approaching maturation as a major leaguer.

    Reply
  4. WideWorldofSports

    4 weeks ago

    na

    Reply
  5. Birdie man

    4 weeks ago

    He’s on my fantasy team, so he probably doesn’t keep this up

    5
    Reply
  6. chandlerbing

    4 weeks ago

    He’s def overachieving
    But after bregman, tucker left
    And yordan’s been out a while
    Someone on the astros had to step up
    And pena’s answering the call

    2
    Reply
  7. NYCityRiddler

    4 weeks ago

    Who the hell is Jeremy Pena? Ahahahahaha!

    3
    Reply
  8. WadeBoggsWildRide

    4 weeks ago

    Christian Walker having a dud of a year is a real surprise. I was way higher on him than Goldy. Do the Astros just have a first base curse?

    3
    Reply
  9. This one belongs to the Reds

    4 weeks ago

    Wait til he hits the dog days of August and see. That’s usually what tells the tale, unless you have stunk all year and finally start hitting!

    1
    Reply
  10. Davehuckleberry55

    4 weeks ago

    WRONG link to Jeremy Pena. This website is so inaccurate!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply
  11. Lloyd Emerson

    4 weeks ago

    I see Deedsy still can’t bother to link the correct Jeremy Peña.

    Reply
  12. Astros_fan_in_Aus

    4 weeks ago

    You forgot to mention Yusei Kikuchi in the list of players gone. We could certainly use him now.

    Reply
  13. mpm366

    4 weeks ago

    Put the proper link to the correct Jeremy Pena please?

    Reply

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