Today is Memorial Day, and the conventional wisdom in baseball suggests that means the current standings now have more signal than noise moving forward. Perhaps that means it’s time to take the Cardinals, who have been white-hot in recent weeks, more seriously despite the narratives surrounding their quiet offseason and slow start to the year last month. A nine-game win streak earlier this month has helped propel them to a 16-4 record over their past 20 games and a 30-23 record overall. That’s put them in a statistical tie with the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot as things stand and just two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central.
When looking at the eight teams that have won 30+ games entering Memorial Day, it’s hard to deny that the Cardinals are the most surprising. As previously mentioned, they made virtually no additions this winter as they signed Phil Maton late in the offseason but otherwise stood pat while players like Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson departed the organization. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that players who appeared likely to be a big part of any success the Cardinals may have had this year, like youngsters Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, are struggling badly. Willson Contreras was a standout at the plate last year but has been merely league average this season and is currently day-to-day with a back injury, while Nolan Arenado is hitting at a below-average clip after the Cards failed to trade him this winter. Even on-paper ace Sonny Gray has a middling 4.06 ERA through 11 starts, and closer Ryan Helsley’s 3.50 ERA is his weakest since 2021.
Instead of the usual suspects, the Cardinals’ successes have come from unlikely places. The best hitter on the team is Brendan Donovan, who has long been a steady piece for St. Louis but now appears to be in the midst of a breakout season in his age-28 campaign with a 140 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR across 51 games. The ace of the rotation is Matthew Liberatore, who has a 2.73 ERA in ten starts so far despite having never posted an ERA below 4.40 in the big leagues before and not even being assured of a rotation role entering camp this year. Behind Liberatore, Miles Mikolas has turned back the clock in his age-36 season to post a solid 3.51 ERA in his first ten starts and fellow veteran Steven Matz has been brilliant in a swing role with a 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 innings of work.
All of this surprising performances beg the question: how sustainable can this be? Mikolas, Andre Pallante, and Erick Fedde are all pitching well above their peripherals so far this year. Impressive as he’s been, Ivan Herrera won’t finish the year with a wRC+ above 200. Even Donovan’s .360 BABIP must be looked at with at least some skepticism, as should the league average performance the Cards have gotten out of Victor Scott II and his .368 BABIP. On the other hand, many of the club’s more established players should be expected to improve. Gray and Contreras have both performed to their usual All-Star caliber levels when looking at the underlying metrics, Arenado’s .245 BABIP would be the lowest of his career in a full season, and Lars Nootbaar’s solid 112 wRC+ may be just the tip of the iceberg with his discipline and power potential. There’s also some players, such as Liberatore and Donovan, whose breakouts are fairly convincing even if they aren’t locks to stay quite as good as they have been so far.
Where does that leave the Cardinals? If you look at the playoff odds over at Fangraphs, the answer is likely outside of the final playoff picture. The club is projected by the site for an 84-win season with a 39.1% chance of making the playoffs. If you gave fans in St. Louis those odds at the start of the 2025 season, the vast majority would’ve surely taken that happily. As it stands, however, winning a touch under half their games for the rest of the season would surely be a disappointing outcome after this exciting start to the season. At the same time, it’s not hard to see why projection systems might doubt the Cardinals. The NL Wild Card race has been extremely competitive so far, even with strong teams like the Diamondbacks and Braves struggling to find their footing so far. That could make St. Louis’s best path to the postseason through the NL Central, where the Cubs are projected to win 90 games and have the NL’s easiest schedule the rest of the way.
Where do MLBTR readers believe the Cardinals will end up? Is postseason baseball returning to St. Louis this October, or will this team wind up at home like they did the past two seasons? Have your say in the poll below:
I love the Cardinals and I think they could win 88 to 90 games this year. The problem is that the top half of the NL is extremely good this year, so 88 wins might not be enough, even for the 3rd WC slot.
Thinking the results of the poll says everything.
This is it. They have to finish better than one of five other teams, all of which look to have a better chance. Two of them would have to fade badly, and the Cards would need to keep up this pace. Possible, but unlikely.
Just gonna go ahead a win the division with 91 wins.
Despite “the narrative.” It was this site’s narrative.
Everyone knows the only way to measure a team’s quality is to see if they are tied for the last wild card on May 26
No team has ever been in a playoff spot 1/3 of the way through the season and failed to make the playoffs. It’s just basic math
Steve – Look beyond the record and WC standing.
Cards have had the 4th-hardest schedule in MLB, and they are 4th in RPI.
They are definitely looking good, as a Top 5 team in fact.
Of course injuries can always change things.
That’s all been debunked by top baseball scientists
Steve – How is having a hard schedule “debunked”?
So you think going 4-2 against the Phillies is the same as going 4-2 against the Rockies? Really?
That’s not true at all according to Tom Tango
Context is key
Steve Stephens, First off, the current expanded playoff format only goes back to 2022, 3 years. Nothing much can be derived from so short a history.
On top of that, your statement is way wrong. These are teams that were in a playoff spot on 5/26, and failed to make the playoffs:
2024: The Twins were in the last WC spot. The Braves were in the 1st WC. Both fell short.
2023: The Mets had the last WC spot, The Pirates were in the 2nd WC spot. Both failed to make the playoffs.
2022: The Twins held the division lead. The Angels had the 2nd WC spot. And the Giants had the other 2nd WC spot. All 3 teams missed the playoffs.
None of that is true. Every single team in a playoff spot on 5/26 has gone on to win the World Series. This is proof that the Cardinals are actually good and are World Series bound! I already bought my tickets for the parade!!! The haters and losers who said the Cardinals wouldn’t make the playoffs are wrong!
Maybe you should work on your sarcasm. Although I did appreciate this:
“Every single team in a playoff spot on 5/26 has gone on to win the World Series.”
Both funny, and literally impossible.
All your secrets will be revealed and your lies will be unearthed. You shall face justice for your misdeeds and atrocities
Reported
I await quivering in my boots.
Say “Joy Lane”
Uncle!
That was an epic troll
The Cardinals have played great defense that’s a huge factor in why their record is what it is. They are getting gold glove quality defense at 3b, short and center. The corner outfielder and 1b defense has also been really good and Pages is an excellent defensive catcher. The lineup has a couple holes the defense does not. I can’t say it’s the best defensive team I can remember but thats more about how good some past teams have been and not an insult to the present one.
It’s a contract year for Mikolas, of course he’s pitching well. Then he will be extended and pitch horribly.
You could say this. Or you could look closer and see that he’s changed the way he pitches and throws fewer strikes, which, though has a higher walk rate, means hitters can’t rely on him repeatedly filling the zone with his, frankly, average stuff. It allows him to “pitch” more. He used to be so concerned with not falling behind that the quality of his pitching suffered greatly. I see no reason he can’t continue this. It’s a minor reinvention.
He looks similar, but worse to his 2022 numbers the year he came off prior to signing his 3 year extension. Just saying he wouldn’t be a good investment for a multi-year deal again, not even considering his age.
King of Cards just gets angry when anyone criticizes his beloved cards.
I was skeptical about their chances at first, but now I put their odds at making the playoffs 50/50. I think the Liberatore breakout is real. I think the improvement by all the young players is real. I’m not including Walker and Gorman in that improvement. They’re still disappointing for what they seemed to be at one time.
I agree. I’m not going to define success by whether or not they make the playoffs. I think the second part of the question is more important. Yes, I believe what they are doing is sustainable.
The article undersells Contreras. He has been killing the ball since a slow start and his numbers are climbing rapidly. Noot and Donovan are doing what we always knew they could. Winn, Scott, and Herrera are playing like guys who have been doing it a long time.
The pitching staff is performing better than expected because A) Pages does a nice job working with the pitchers. B) The defense behind them has been excellent. C) The pitchers are being encouraged to utilize the skills they have instead of being asked to get strikeouts. The pitching and defense are very sustainable and that should keep them competitive even if the offense cools.
Solid, competitive play over the whole season, coupled with development and experience for the young players makes this a winning season whether they make the post season or not.
Cards – I had no doubt Liberatore would become a stud, in fact he’s the one Card that I wanted to be traded to my team. Look at my comment below, posted in early January!!
mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/nolan-arenado-trade-rum…
Having heard of Liberatore for many years but never seeing him I was starting to think he was a myth they made up. I guess he’s real. I had heard of Tink Hence and seen him pitch and thought he would arrive first.
Oh Tink arrived. Right on the DL where Cards fans have expected until they finally convert him to the bullpen.
Mike – Liberatore is someone I’ve watched pitch for a long time, that’s why I was so confident in him. I’ve got a pretty good eye for evaluating players I’ve had a chance to watch. Sometimes people don’t like my opinion on young players (Bello, Rafaela, etc) but usually later on they understand when things play out.
Gorman has, unfortunately, been this hitter all along. But Walker’s struggles can largely be attributed to the organization trying to shift his hitting mechanics to create more loft and power. Funnily enough, current hitting coach Brant Brown has him looking at his AA tape/swing and to recreate that in an attempt to get back on track. I still see him being a Jermaine Dye type.
If we look at Barrel Rate, K-rate and Chase rate for them, they’re offense looks pretty poor and most likely won’t survive the long season.
Barrel%: 7.3%
K-rate: 19.9%
Chase%: 31.5
I use that to determine potential breakouts or not and that does not paint a great picture. K-rate is pretty decent but it’s the only real saving grace there.
Their pitching is decent but based on SIERA, they’re slightly overperforming with a team SIERA of 4.08 vs. a team ERA of 3.73, so some regression should be expected. Breaking that down further, their starters ERA is 3.57 vs SIERA of 4.16. Their Pen’s ERA is 4.00 but a SIERA of 3.95, so they’re pitching to their ERA essentially.
I think what’s kept them in games is their defense, being 3rd best in MLB but I don’t think it will be enough to deal with the coming regression for the team.
I don’t know. I looked at their FICA, EIN, EBITA, and FOWYOS and those tell me this team us a contender.
@Del Griffith
I just assume if you’re hitting the ball you’re winning games. That simple. More hitting equals championships.
Rooting for them but I still think SD is a better team. As far as the central goes, I think STL is better than the cubs and probably the brewers.
Overachieving on offense, rotation, and especially bullpen.
Only Zack Thompson on the current IL.
Regression expected.
The bullpen is not overachieving
I would say a lack of injuries has helped. Team has been pretty healthy for the most part.
I would say their 6.9% HR/FB (4th best in MLB) is unsustainable.
Wow you really had to dig to find that stat lol. What about their performance on Tuesday afternoons? They haven’t allowed any home runs on Tuesday afternoon all year. Do you think thats sustainable?
I disagree. That stat tends to even out over time, especially when the RPs do not have sustained records of high performance.
They are performing as an average bullpen, but will probably end up significantly below average.
I think a lot will depend on whether or not Herrera continues with how he’s started the season offensively and defensively. So far at the plate, he’s a top 3-4 catcher in the game, defensively he is still learning but he’s still handling pitchers well.
Herrera looks a monster. He’s not going back behind the plate
They need to teach him LF in the offseason
Agreed, I’d stick him at first but also see what he can do in either R or L field.
The team has DH at bats to give him. I would use him as a backup catcher more than a regular but not remove him from catching completely like they did Contreras.
Pages is a very good defensive catcher.
Cards have only Walker as RH OF, huge roster gap. Herrera has the arm, if he can learn reads and track in the OF its such an obvious move with the depth they have at C in the minors (Crooks and Bernal)
I think (a terrible thing) if the pretty birdies avoid the inevitable oblique strain or the random UCL snap they will finish ahead of the Pirates ( terrible ownership) but behind the Cubs (terrible greedy ownership) .But hey, Wrigley is on every Baseballs fan bucket list. Busch (whatever that is now) not so much. At least the Pro Bowling Hall Of Fame is just across the street.
I don’t trust Marmol. He is going to do something to screw this all up, it just seems inevitable.
Why would it be that surprising for Victor Scott to maintain a high BABIP? He has elite speed and has run high BABIPs before in the minors.
BABIP is an indicator of luck. Speed benefits BA as much as it does BABIP. A gap of 138 point between current BABIP, and career BA, indicates that he’s been lucky. And the thing about luck is it will turn at some point.
Nope. Speed brings the IF in and creates space for bloops and mishits to land between IF and OF. Maybe 20% of VSII hits land here.
Hence he runs a high BABIP consistently, and will continue to do so.
In 2024 he had a .233 BABIP, a delta of 54 points, no where near the 138 for 2025.. I can see a slight uptick due to speed, but it’s still mostly about luck. The .365 is unsustainable.
Then we agree to disagree, FWIW
There’s nothing wrong with a difference of opinion. I could be wrong, but we’ll be able to see if it’s sustainable or not.
Stupid Cardinals cost me a 5 leg parlay because they couldn’t beat Baltimore. I’m petty and vindictive so I’m hoping they miss by 1 game. I’m officially putting a hex on them..mark my words June will not be good to them.
They have a better chance than Cora’s Joke Sox
Vibe in here is weird.
Between Cardinal haters being so mad that the Cards are playing well, and Cardinal fans falling over each other to jump back on the bandwagon, there sure is a lot of stumbling around.
I’m trying to find the posts with Cardinal fans falling over each other to jump back on the bandwagon. Can you point them out?
Cards fans pleasantly surprised that this looks like an 85+ win club. Nobody thinks they will win the division, a wildcard is now possible, if not all that probable.
It’s really not that good a bandwagon, though 2026 and beyond is looking better with Liberatore coming on and McGreevy looking ready for promotion.
I still feel that management wants them to lose so they can ship out Arenado, Helsley and any other high-priced talent that will go.
“Impressive as he’s been” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out to begin the sentence. It’s not optional! Grammar is not optional when you’re being paid to write.