Poll: Who Will Lead The League In Stolen Bases?

By this time of year in each of the previous two seasons, the players who would go on to lead their respective leagues in stolen bases were already atop the leaderboards. As of June 12, 2024, Elly De La Cruz led Brice Turang for the NL lead by 10 steals, while José Caballero led Bobby Witt Jr. for the AL lead by three. De La Cruz would finish the year with an MLB-leading 67 swipes, while Caballero would finish atop the Junior Circuit with 44. The year before, Esteury Ruiz held a comfortable lead in the AL with 31 steals on June 12, and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 28 put him well ahead of the NL competition. Acuña would go on to lead the majors with 73 stolen bases, while Ruiz would lead the AL with 67 of his own.

That being said, there is plenty of season left to play and plenty of stolen base excitement yet to be had. By this day last year, Shohei Ohtani had only stolen 15 bases, putting him on pace for 35 by the end of the year. He famously finished with 59, en route to the first 50-50 season in MLB history. In contrast, Witt was on pace for 44 steals at this time last season. If he’d kept that up, he would have tied for the league lead. Instead, he only swiped 12 more bags over the rest of the season, finishing with a mere 31. With all that to consider, let’s take stock of the stolen base leaderboards and try to figure out who might sit at the top by the end of the year.

Looking to defend his AL stolen base crown, Caballero currently leads the majors with 25 steals. He is one ahead of Oneil Cruz for the MLB lead and four ahead of Witt and Luis Robert Jr. in the AL. So, is the Rays utilityman the clear frontrunner (no pun intended) to lead the AL once again? He’s been running more often this season than last, and he’s been safe at a higher rate. As things stand today, he is the only player in the majors on pace to reach 60 steals. No other AL runner is on pace for more than 50. What’s more, he’s been especially hot as of late, with 16 steals in 17 attempts over the past month.

Yet, if it weren’t for all the bases Caballero has already stolen, I don’t think anyone would peg him as a likely stolen base king. His sprint speed has declined notably in each of the past two seasons, dropping from the 90th percentile in 2023 to the 75th percentile in 2024 and now the 63rd percentile in 2025. Similarly, his average home plate to first base time has increased. This year, 84 qualified runners (per Statcast) have a faster average home-to-first time than Caballero. In addition, he hasn’t “bolted” at all this season. As defined by Statcast, a bolt is any run where the runner’s sprint speed is above 30 feet per second in his fastest one-second window. Caballero bolted five times in 2023 and five times in 2024, but he has yet to bolt at all in 2025. For context, 103 runners have bolted at least once this year, while Witt leads the majors with 47 bolts.

Indeed, Witt is much faster than Caballero in every measurable way. In addition to bolts, Witt leads the majors in sprint speed, while his home-to-first time ranks sixth. (All five players ahead of him are left-handed hitters, which gives them a slight advantage in getting out of the box.) Moreover, Witt is also a vastly superior hitter to Caballero. Not only does that mean he reaches base more often, giving him more chances to steal, but it also means he plays more often and hits higher in the batting order, giving him more chances to reach base. According to Baseball Reference, Witt has already had 121 stolen base opportunities this year, to Caballero’s 64. There’s a good chance that gap will only increase; Witt is underperforming his expected on-base percentage by 25 points this year, while Caballero is overperforming his xOBP by 12 points. The worse Caballero hits, the less likely he is to see playing time in Tampa Bay, while Witt’s spot in the two-hole of the Royals lineup is secure. Caballero has 47 steals to Witt’s 33 over the past calendar year, despite playing less often, typically batting lower in the order, and reaching base at a lower clip. That certainly seems like an argument in Caballero’s favor. On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore Witt’s superior skill set.

Somewhere in between those two is Robert. His sprint speed ranks in the 89th percentile, while his nine bolts put him among the top 30 runners in the league. He doesn’t run quite as well as Witt, but he’s been faster than Caballero. Still, it’s surprising to see Robert so high on the stolen base leaderboard. He has never stolen more than 23 bags in a season, which means he’s just three steals away from surpassing his previous career high. Robert is keeping pace with Witt and Caballero right now, but he stands out. We’ve seen both of them steal upwards of 40 bags in a season before. We’ve never seen this kind of stolen base prowess from Robert. All the more interesting, he has stolen all these bases despite slumping badly at the plate. His on-base percentage is a career-worst .269, putting him among the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the sport. Due to his low OBP, he has only had 64 stolen base opportunities this year. That’s the same number as Caballero, even though Robert has taken 66 more trips to the plate. In theory, this is a point in Robert’s favor when it comes to his chances to lead the league in steals. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine his OBP will remain this low all season. He’s only two years removed from being a well-above-average hitter, and his xOBP is 43 points better than his actual on-base percentage. If Robert starts reaching base significantly more often and continues to steal at such a high clip, he could blast ahead of Witt and Caballero.

Another AL contender to keep in mind is José Ramírez. The veteran has never led the league in steals, but his 263 career stolen bases rank fourth among active players. He topped 40 steals for the first time last year and has already swiped 20 bags in 2025. That puts him on pace for a career-high 48 in his age-32 season. Finally, Chandler Simpson is a dark horse in the race. The Rays rookie didn’t make his debut until mid-April and has been playing at Triple-A for the past two weeks. Even so, he ranks fifth in the AL with 19 steals this season. Considering he stole those 19 bases in just 35 games, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the Rays waited to call him up again until after the trade deadline and he still ended up pacing the AL in steals. After all, we’re talking about a guy who swiped 104 bags in the minors in 2024.

The competition is more straightforward in the NL, where three talented young speedsters enjoying strong seasons rank 1-2-3 on the stolen base leaderboard. Oneil Cruz is just three steals ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL lead, while last year’s stolen base king, Elly De La Cruz, is hot on their tails. Two-time NL stolen base king Trea Turner is close behind in fourth place, while Victor Scott II, arguably the fastest runner in the Senior Circuit, is fifth. All told, those five players are separated by just six steals.

Cruz leads the way with 24 steals, despite having missed a handful of games here and there with minor injury issues. On a per-game basis, he sits comfortably ahead of all qualified NL players, and he’s been successful on all but two attempts. Crow-Armstrong is slightly faster, according to both sprint speed and home-to-first time. However, his on-base skills are poor, which will limit his opportunities to steal. As for De La Cruz, he was faster than either Cruz or Crow-Strong in 2023 and ’24, but he’s been a bit slower this season. That could be due to a minor leg injury he has played through (per reporter Charlie Goldsmith). As he regains strength, perhaps De La Cruz will start stealing at the same pace as last year, leaving everyone else in the dust. At his best, De La Cruz moves faster than Cruz and reaches base at a higher clip than Crow-Armstrong.

Turner and Scott rank just below those three on the stolen base leaderboard, and their names aren’t quite as buzzy. Still, they’re not to be forgotten in this conversation. Turner led the National League in steals in both 2018 and 2021. He is in his thirties, but he remains one of the fastest players in the game. His sprint speed is tied for third among qualified NL runners, while his 42 bolts rank second in the Senior Circuit. He has also received more plate appearances and has a higher OBP than any of Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Scott is the only NL runner who ranks ahead of Turner in both sprint speed and bolts. His 18 steals are one fewer than Turner’s 19, but his success rate is better; Scott has only been caught once, while Turner has been gunned down on five occasions. Yet, Scott is not the same caliber of hitter as Turner (or as Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, or De La Cruz).

Last but certainly not least, I’d be remiss were I not to mention Ohtani. From this date onward in 2024, Ohtani stole 44 bases. If he were to do that again, he would finish with 55 steals this year, while Cruz is currently on pace to finish with 56. Another second-half surge from Ohtani is unlikely, to be sure, but it’s a possibility worth mentioning. We know he’s capable of pulling it off.

So, who do MLBTR readers think will lead the AL and NL in stolen bases this season? Have your say in the polls below:

Photos courtesy of Philip G. Pavely and Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images.