MLBTR is kicking off a new series for Front Office subscribers! Over the next few weeks, we'll go team-by-team and examine every club's deadline outlook as trade season approaches. There are some teams that'll be easy to categorize as buyers or sellers, but many still find themselves right on the bubble where their play over the next four to six weeks takes on extra importance.
There's nuance even for teams that are clearly into buy or sell mode. Where are those organizations from a payroll perspective? Are the buyers all-in for 2025 or just opening a long-term competitive window? Are the sellers committed to a multi-year rebuild, or are they likely to focus only on moving rentals while hanging onto players who are controllable beyond this season? Might the baseball operations leader be on the hot seat, and if so, how could that impact their deadline decisions?
We'll start the series with a focus on teams that have moved to the far end of the standings, giving a bit more time for the fringe contenders to clarify their plans. We'll get underway with the Pirates, who are headed to their seventh consecutive losing season.
Record: 29-45 (0.2% playoff probability)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Andrew Heaney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Mayza, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen
The Pirates aren't likely to trade McCutchen. He has played on a series of one-year deals and has made clear he hopes to retire in Pittsburgh. Unless he has a change of heart and wants to compete for a championship, he'll stick around. They'd listen on any of the other impending free agents, but they'll probably have a tough time generating much in the way of returns for Pham, Frazier or Mayza. The former two haven't hit well in 2025 (Pham, in particular), and Mayza is on the 60-day IL due to a lat strain. He hasn't pitched since late April and isn't particularly close to a return.
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Trade Hayes. Someone will think he’s valuable.
Send him to the Red Sox. Makes perfect sense!
Hayes’ back might be completley cooked. It’s a shame, he looked so good in 2023, and he’s tried hard to work around it, changed his swing and stance to mitigate the pain, but back injuries are no joke. Iirc, he had a herniated disc. Those just don’t go away, and it’s not like there’s a surgery to fix it. I’ve had friends and family members have herniated discs, and they have constant back pain. I can’t imagine what that’s like while trying to play professonal baseball.
Check Frazier’s stats, he is having a better year than you are thinking. Could be a useful bench piece on a contender who can play anywhere.
He’s batting nearly .300 with a 103 wRC+ since May 18th. Still has solid defense at 2B and can play left field.
I had surgery on lumbar #5 in 1998, the disk was herniated and I haven’t had problems with my back ever since so I can’t buy the logic of recurring back pain happens after surgery
Just because you had a back problem and no longer have it doesn’t mean that he doesn’t. I’ve seen plenty of other cases of people having a similar issue, yet still have problems, even after getting examined by a medical professional. Plus, I don’t think you are out there trying to play professional baseball for 6-7 months a year.
Hayes is a professional ball player, and has seen multiple medical professionals about his back issues, some of which are probably the best at what they do in the country. As of Feburary, he was still having some lower back pain, which is why he changed his swing and stance. If there was a procedure that would have fixed his issue, he would have undergone it by now.
Also keep in mind that he has a chronic issue in his back. There isn’t a specific surgery that will fix a chronic issue. It’s not a “he just hyper-extended something in his back.’ It’s an issue that doesn’t have a specific ‘cure’ other than just adapting your best to it.
Enjoy Paul Skenes while he’s still a Pirate. That’s the positive outlook for the team.
if Hayes is unable to play to his fullest potential, he should retire
He’s wasting a roster spot and provides nothing to this offense
While I wasn’t a major league player, I was in the construction-Environmental profession which required having to bend over, lift and pull which gave my body a workout often
Making excuses for Hayes’ offensive woes is pathetic
It’s not an excuse. If he can’t perform to his fullest because of a back issue, then that’s that. Chronic issues are much more complicated than just one herniated disc. Those don’t go away. I wish so badly he could work around it, but there may not be a solution for him.
🙁
Agreed, Almost too depressing to read.
Free Skenes!
Everyone should be available except skenes,chandler and the top 10 prospects
Everyone should be available.
Hey Coffin dweller, Skenes isn’t going anywhere no matter how much you want it to happen
Here’s how I see it:
Ones who should be avaiable, but only for the right price: Keller, Reynolds, Bednar, Santana
Ones they should hold onto: Cruz, Skenes, any rookie/top 100 prospect
Anyone else they can trade.
The Bucs look like a rebuilding team because Cherington’s minor league development has been horrible
There’s currently nobody who stands out at AAA who could make the offense better
In retrospect, his latest rebuild was a disappointing one
In my opinion “development” is choosing the right guys in the first place. It’s fairly seldom that less talented players develop into useful players.
What does that say about the players Cherington has received in return from his trades, Mlb fan?
Like I said on another post..they need to get rid of all minor league and major league coaches and instructors. Along with all scouts. Rehire from outside the organization. For the whole system to bail on hitting I’d problematic.
The only hitter tearing it up in the minors is Connor griffin..let’s hope these moron instructors leave him alone
Cutch won’t accept a trade and would sooner retire if they tried to trade him
He’s the most consistent player they have right now
I’ve said for years that analytics is ruining not only baseball, but all sports. Analytics, invented by computer needs who don’t know the difference between a baseball and a basketball. Today teams in all sports rely on analytics. When in reality it causes coaches and managers into micromanaging. Take the case of the pirates with the Shelton/Kelly catastrophe. All sports prospered for a 100 years before the quackery of analytics. They can take their WAR and other analytical terms and flush them.
General George Patton once said ” oh how I hate the 20th century”. Alluding to 20th century modern warfare. He was a 16th century warrior stuck in the 20th century.
“OH HOW I HATE THE 21ST CENTURY. Analytics and all
Hayes needs to be traded, even for a low level prospect because he’s not going to get much in return anyway
Bases loaded, 1 out and he strikes out on 3 pitches, the last one was no where close to the plate
He brings nothing to the offense other than an occasional single
Kelly is a Shelton clone in every aspect of managing
He doesn’t deserve to come back next season
Like you said, Buuba, they need to clean house with coaching from the lower levels to the major league ranks
Imo, I think Kelly isn’t a bad manager. He puts out a much more consistent set of line-ups and I think he’s done significantly better with the bullpen.
If you want to go root for a team who doesn’t use analytics, then go root for the White Sox and Rockies. Both basically have (or at least had up until the last few seasons) zero analytics or R&D departments, and look how inefficent they are ran. They make the Pirates’ management look like a well-oiled machine. No team is using WAR as anything beyond “He’s probably good.” Most teams have their own set of analytics and internal research, and most public stuff you see is barely scracthing the surface.
People who know how analytics work will tell you that WAR is flawed, and will only tell you a general idea of how good/bad a player is. They’ll also tell you that using one singular number to evaluate a player is bad analysis. Good teams know how to use best use their analytics (Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, etc.). Bad teams use analytics inefficently (teams that are consistently below .500 and/or struggle to develop their own players). The worst teams don’t use analytics (team who are on the verge of breaking loss records).
Analytics have proven traditional baseball “wisdom” to be wrong.
All 30 MLB teams value analytics so highly that they employ entire departments of professional statisticians to calculate and interpret them.
The 20th Century is never coming back.
*All 30 teams except for the Colorado Rockies
Up until 2023, they had just a single person in their analytics department. It’s been reported multiple times that their front office runs things like it’s the 90s, with understaffed, overworked, and often ignored analytics departments. Up until 2022, the Chicago White Sox also had one of the smallest analytics departments, and deported their data to third party companies to evaluate.
As of 2022, every team that had 20+ data analysts/engineers have made a World Series in the last 10 years. That includes the Giants, Cubs, D-Backs, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Rays. Only team with fewer than 10 have made a World Series in over the last 15 years. That includes the Marlins, Athletics, Twins, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, and the Tigers, the only team who has made a World Series in recent baseball history.
just because Kelly’s lineups are consistent doesn’t mean he has the correct players in the spot
I honeslty think the line-ups are fine. Cruz batting leadoff gets you basically an XBH when he gets on because of how often he steals/how efficent he is and he gets on base at a decent rate as well. IKF batting 9th is genius because while he doesn’t bring the same sort of power/speed as Cruz does, he also gets on base at a respectable rate and turns the line-up over. It also gives pitchers a reason to pitch to IKF. He’s keeping batters in spots where they’ve previously done well in. I haven’t had any problems with how he’s handling the line-up tbh. But he can’t do much when he only has to work with Canario, Pham, Triolo, a slumping Reynolds, Horwitz, and a Nick Gonzales who came back from a displaced ankle fracture not that long ago.
If the Pirates can acquire a 3B and OF who hit for a .750 OPS, they will be serious contenders to win the NL Central Division next season.
correct me if i’m wrong, but wasn’t it you who said that when Horowitz came off the IL the offense would improve, mlb1225?
I figured he’d be a lot better than he is. He was great last year with the Blue Jays and was one of the best rookie hitters in all of baseball. I still believe he’s better than this and will come around eventually. Still hitting the ball hard and making decent swing decisions. Though, like Cruz, even if/when he does eventually come around, he’ll just get pitched around.
How do we know that Horwitz is completely healed?
Mitch Keller is going to be in high demand at the trading deadline.
Since July 9 of last year, Keller has a 3.94 FIP. The MLB average FIP for starting pitchers this year is 4.08. That makes Keller a very valuable trade option for the Pirates.
When a contender is looking for a starter at the end of July, being able to acquire one who is better than league average (a “3rd starter”) is a big win.
Keller is too inconsistent after the AS Break and I see him getting traded which wouldn’t hurt my feelings
After 2 innings, the Tigers are up 5-0
The Bucs have 2 hits, both by the oldest player on the team, Cutch, including a double
Canario did what he does best, struck out on a pitch nowhere near the plate
That’s one thing this team is good at
striking out on pitches nowhere close to the plate
I wish they never picked up Canario. Never got that acquisition either. He has an atrocious 36.7% whiff rate. At that point, just play Jack Suwinski. At least he had a solid year a couple of seasons ago. Or better yet, give Billy Cook a shot. It’s not like Canario is some star defender or speedster. He’s average-ish in both regards. At least Cook was great with the glove and one of the fastest players in baseball last season.
Cruz leads the majors in strikeouts and called third strikes
That’s not a sign he’s being pitched around
There are just over 200 batters this year who have seen 750+ pitches this season. Cruz has the 5th highest rate of pitches outside the zone, and the lowest rate of pitches seen in the heart of the strikezone. He’s seen more pitches outside the zone than Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Aaron Judge.
In my unprofessional opinion, if you are seeing more pitches outside the zone than Judge, who is having the best season by a batter since Barry Bonds with the bat, you are getting pitched around.
we actually agree about something, mlb1225 regarding Canario
By the way Bart is hitless in his last 19 plate appearances
What happened to him?
if those pitches are out of the zone why is Cruz swinging at them?
He’s probably pushing, trying too hard. I think that’s part of Cruz’s problem. Sometimes he gets ahead of himself. That’s why he had so much trouble early this season with defense. He’s looked significantly better over the last two months. He throws things into hyper-drive, when he needs to slow things down. He has made better swing deicison this year and has a much lower chase rate compared to last season. If you put even a semi-competent line-up behind him, he’d go from a good to great batter.
They need to get some better players somehow. Watching right now and Hayes strikes out on 3 pitches with bases loaded. If they can get rid of some of this dead money
They need to give pitchers a reason to challnge some of their better hitters. Oneil Cruz has seen some of the fewest pitches in the K-zone, and has the lowest percentage of pitches inside what Baseball Savant considers the ‘heart of the zone.’ He’s seen fewer pitches in the zone than AARON JUDGE. If the Pirates don’t see a problem with Oneil Cruz getting pitched around moe than Judge, who is in the midist of a historic season, then nothing will. I don’t blame pitchers for pitching around Cruz though. No reason to pitch to him when Cutch is the only other batter in this line-up with a decent OPS.
They are simply not a good hitting team. They can’t hit. Some solid vets like cutch and IKF, but only one capable of possibly being an all star is Cruz. Reynolds and Hayes are killing rhem. Horiwitz is a platoon hitter with little power
I still believe in Horwitz. I think he’ll end up as a solid hitter overall. He showed off average power last year. But I’m saddened by Hayes. Not really his fault either. He’s trying his best to adapt to chronic back issues, which isn’t easy.
Horowitz has a chronic wrist ailment..he will never hit for power..cherrington was taken on this trade.
I don’t know about that. I’d give Horwitz a little longer of a leash. Luis Ortiz isn’t doing great himself and the two pitching prospects they gave up aren’t even at Double-A yet.
Well you guys can say all you want about analytics being so great…and I can say that for someone to make a statement that analytics has proven traditional baseball wrong is just idiotic. It’s the posters opinion.
Now the pirates field a team with trillo playing first base. Guy can’t hit his weight. Gold glove doesn’t mean a thing when you can’t hit. Someone said they don’t have anyone else. SO WHAT THE SEASON IS OVER. Play Bart there..oh wait he never played there..SO WHAT THE SEASON IS OVER. Call Gorski up. If they are playing Pham ,because as a poster said, have you seen his defense…WHO CARES THE SEASON IS OVER..he can’t hit his IQ. Now is the time to start previewing for next year.
I’m tired of all the medias excuses and all of the posters excuses…
Gorski has played 3rd base and Cook plays first baseman so dfa Canario and Pham, bat Cook against lefties and Gorski platoon with worthless Hayes
They can’t be any worse
Gorski hasn’t played 3B in the minor leagues,from what I can find. He’s played first base and second base, but never 3B.
Bryan Reynolds is now 30, having a tough year, and frankly probably will be too long in the tooth when younger players are ready to contend. He’s also got a big contract signed through 2030 at over $13 million a year.
Time to let Reynolds go IF (big IF) the Pirates can find a buyer. A .222 batting average with .295 on base percentage at age 30 is going to make that a tough sell.
The Seattle Mariner outfield has been hit by injury, lost both #1 and #2 right fielder, and LF Randy Arozarena is having a so-so year on an $11 million contract, is a free agent in 2025, and will be asking for bigger money. Seattle may take a chance on Reynolds instead, depending on the price tag in trade.
The Pirates would need solid outfield help in return. RF Dom Canzone would be available, hits left and the M’s have RF Luke Raley coming back from injury.
Canzone is looking ready to bust out and has a minor league career .306/.373 line with 20 homer power and 10 SB speed.
If the Pirates also ask for Samad Taylor, a right handed hitting OF in AAA hitting .303/.358 with 11 home runs, 41 RBI’s, and 20 stolen bases, that makes a deal that might get done.
Which young player exactly are you talking about who would take Reynolds place?
When they are ready to contend?
They were supposed to contend this year
They were supposed to contend last year too. It’s pure negligence what they did with the line-up this year. You made one real move all offseason, and that was acquiring Horwitz. They signed Tommy Pham, who had a negative WAR season last year and is in his late-30s. They are scoring less runs per game than the Colorado Rockies, and only slightly more than the White Sox last year.
To put it like this, if they scored 4 runs every game, they would have 12 additional wins, which would be a 41-33 record. 4 runs per game (on the dot) is still slightly worse than league average this year, which is 4.31.
The worst part is they’re moving backwards. In 2023, they scored 4.27 runs per game on average, and that was without a healthy Oneil Cruz for most of the season. They had 5 batters with 400+ plate appearaces and a better than average OPS+. Over half the regulars in their line-up were above-average hitters.
You should not be moving backwards like this, especially when the pitching staff is moving forward at a much faster rate. I get stuff happens, but if their offensive production stayed STAGNENT since 2023, they would probably be a contender right now.
I think they should make some deals but also have an eye towards winning asap. Look for a starting outfielder, potentially a new 3B, SS and just depth. Would be fine with Hayes, Heaney and Bednar leaving. If Keller or a young starter is traded, hopefully the return will be worth it. Can’t have a six year rebuild with no progress.
Rightwingrick…muted..I don’t mute people much..BUT…sure Reynolds isn’t hitting. But unlike the rest if the pirates he has 8 homers and 39 RBI’s. And he’s only 30…give him some hitters to protect him from pitchers pitching around him.
I’m going to defend Reynolds over a few things
Since he’s on paternity leave, I wonder if his mind had been more on his wife and her pregnancy and his slump happened after Kelly pulled a Shelton and gave him a day off
IKF also went into a slump after his given day off
It seems like when these guys are hitting well, Kelly ruins their hot streaks when he gives them days off
Cruz might be being pitched around, that doesn’t explain his 91
strikeouts which leads the league
I also think the lineup needs revamping
Cruz shouldn’t be leading off, he strikes out too much
IKF, Cutch, Cruz, Reynolds
Right now their best hitter is Cutch
I think Cruz batting leadoff is fine. He’s getting on-base at a good rate and is super efficent when it comes to basestealing. He needs more thump behind him. There’s no reason for pitchers to challenge him though. He and Cutch are the only ones with a better than league average OPS. If I’m a pitcher, why would I pitch to Cruz when I can work work around him and deal with one of the many below average hitters in the line-up right now?
He’s not entierly wrong. 30 year old corner outfielder with poor offense this year isn’t a huge sell. No team cares about his home run and RBI totals. They may care about his underlying metrics though. He’s still hitting the ball hard, not swinging outside the zone often, and expected numbers are in his favor.
I believe Pham will be DFAd or released after today. He won’t be in team tomorrow. No need to keep him and 2 other righty outfielders on team. He had his 10 year anniversary this week
The only reason Jack is here is because he’s the 26th player due to the doubleheader and Cook is here because Reynolds is on paternity leave
I do hope you’re right though
There it is! Another Pirate loss for the Nutting-haters to celebrate.
They would rather moan about Nutting than see the Pirates win with him as their owner.
They are hoping to see Skenes pitch eight scoreless innings in Game 2 ,tonight, and the Pirates lose 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth.
Which one of us who posted a comment here mentioned anything about Nutting?
You are one of the most annoying people on this app
“Let’s boycott the Pirates! By giving Nutting LESS money than when the team lost money last year, we will force him to spend MORE money on payroll; Or, better yet, that will convince a WISE billionaire to buy the team and FOOLISHLY keep it in the historically bad Pittsburgh baseball market.” — #NuttingHaterLogic