MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always.
• Good afternoon!

Grover

• if anyone does pick up candelario who will it be

Steve Adams

• Brewers, Astros, Mariners could all take a more or less free look while they wait for more appealing options to become available on the trade market.

Dinelson Lament

• Assuming he stays healthy and reaches free agency, what type of contract might Skubal command in the 2026-2027 off season?

Steve Adams

• Something north of $400MM

Ben

• Will Eugenio Suarez cost a top 100 prospect, considering no top 100 prospects were traded at last year’s deadline, including for multi-year controllable players, while Geno is a rental?

Steve Adams

• “Top 100” prospect are subjective. There are several different lists, and the gap between the No. 100 prospect and the No. 130 prospect is pretty negligible. The Tigers probably had Thayron Liranzo as a top-100 guy when they got him as the Flaherty headliner last year. He was generally considered a 50 FV prospect, which is where all back-of-the-top-100 guys are. Within a few weeks, he was on most top-100 lists.Top-100 rankings are far more volatile than a lot of people give them credit for, and they kind of inherently misrepresent that there’s a larger gap between 100 and 150 than there really is. (Or between, say, 60 and 100, for that matter).At any rate, I don’t think Suarez will command a 50 FV type of prospect, but a 45 type headlining the deal wouldn’t surprise me.

Utah Fan

• Who gets traded by the TWINS at the deadline, if their recent decline continues?

Steve Adams

• Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe all make sense. Someone might grab Ty France as a cheap RH bat off the bench.

Phil

• What do the Phillies prioritize more, a relief arm or high impact bat?

Steve Adams

• Dave Dombrowski himself said bullpen arms just last week:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/06/phillies-trade-rumors-bullpen-h…

Scott

• Will the Padres be buyers or sellers? I think they will be sellers as the pathetic offensive display has been going on for a while now and unloading a few contracts can help them for next season.

Steve Adams

• They’re one game back from a Wild Card spot. They’re not selling without a huge collapse.

Bendix

• If the Marlins keep up this hot steak, though obviously not winning every game. Will they be inclined to not sell off the veterans they have and at least be in a holding pattern or do you still see them as selling completely regardless?

Steve Adams

• Selling regardless. Maybe the scope of the sale won’t be quite so great if they can get within 2-3 games of .500, but I don’t think Peter Bendix & Co. are looking at this roster and thinking, “Yeah, we can make a playoff run here.”

Ken

• More likely to be traded: Severino or Springs?

Steve Adams

• Springs. The contract is just easier to move and he’s pitching better. The A’s overpaid to get Severino, and now he’s unhappy and not pitching well at home. Both parties would probably like to move on, but I can’t imagine the A’s are excited to include cash to pay down his contract. Maybe they could swap him out for a bad contract elsewhere, but they feel kind of stuck with one another for right now.

The Duke

• What is Luis Robert Jr worth at this point? Lottery ticket or two?

Steve Adams

• A lottery ticket if the White Sox pay down pretty much all of the remaining guaranteed money.

brian

• Bednar, Keller or both?

Steve Adams

• As in, who’s likelier to be traded? Bednar (and Dennis Santana) are much likelier to go than Keller. I’d be surprised if Bednar or Santana stayed in Pittsburgh beyond the deadline. Keller has a real chance to go, but with 3+ years left on the contract, there’s no urgency to do it now.

Buy or Sell

• Angels

Steve Adams

• Should sell, but owner Arte Moreno lives in an alternate universe and will talk himself into being one piece away despite being a bottom-five team in batting average, on-base percentage, strikeout percentage and walk percentage on offense and a bottom-five team in FIP, strikeout rate, walk rate and SIERA both in the rotation and bullpen (and a bottom-five bullpen ERA/bottom-10 rotation ERA)
• The Angels are where they are because they keep winning one-run games. They’ve been very fortunate with health on the pitching side of things but have minimal depth on either side of the roster. This isn’t a team that should be sacrificing future value to win in the short term, but that hasn’t stopped Moreno in the past.

Adam Steves

• Then Arty should trade Mike Trout?

Steve Adams

• They’re not trading Trout
• Trout has a full no-trade clause, has never given the indication he wants to move, and his contract is far greater than anything he’d get in free agency right now. Arte Moreno isn’t going to pay tens of millions of dollars to make Trout, a franchise icon, go away.

MLBTR

• Could MLBTR start doing MLB mock drafts? With the draft approaching…I think it’d be really fun & interactive if MLBTR started to do this!

Steve Adams

• The draft isn’t a big area of focus for us. Can’t trade picks outside comp balance picks, and we’d need to hire someone specifically to cover what would be a niche topic even among our already niche (relative to broader baseball fandom anyway) readership.

Will Lehnertz

• Will Bregman get traded? Seems like the Mariners are interested given the recent Adam Jude Article.

Steve Adams

• Adam Jude is a (very good) reporter with the Seattle Times for those unfamiliar. But really, all he said was if the Red Sox decide to move him — there’s no indication that’d happen — the Mariners would probably have interest. He specifically called a Bregman trade a long shot. I agree.I feel I take one or more of these questions every week, but people keep asking, so I suppose I’ll continue.Trading players with opt-out clauses (which Bregman has) is *extremely* difficult. It’s almost pure downside for the acquiring team. You either get a veteran player who comes in, performs well, and opts back into free agency at season’s end … or he gets hurt/tanks, forgoes the opt-out, and you’re stuck with the extra year(s). And the selling team will be asking for legitimate prospects, while you know you’re at best getting a rental and at worst giving up those prospects for what’ll turn into a bad contract.
• Bregman’s $40MM AAV, even with deferrals, would also be extremely hard for the Mariners to absorb. I’m sure they’d want the Red Sox to include cash, which only further muddies things. Ownership gave the Mariners $15-16MM total to add 2-3 bats this offseason. I cannot see them suddenly saying “Actually, that $40MM AAV feels fine now that we’re four games over .500 in July.”

3K Club

• After Kershaw, who is the next to 3k strikeouts?

Steve Adams

• Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole can both get there. After that, it’s tougher. Aaron Nola probably has the next-best chance. Kevin Gausman would be a long shot, but maybe he pitches into his 40s?

Freddy

• Any chance Byron Buxton gets moved?

Steve Adams

• Full no-trade clause and Twins aren’t looking to tear everything down. He’ll stay regardless.

birdbats

• what are the odds Arenado is traded

Steve Adams

• Borderline nonexistent. No one wants that contract, and the teams that could most plausibly stomach it, in a vacuum, are the ones who are already in the top tier of luxury penalization and would thus pay a 110% tax on the remaining AAV.

Mike Elias

• I have several potential QO candidates, which ones do I offer it too (O’Hearn, Efflin, Sugano, Mullins)? Obviously disregarding those that will be traded in the next month.

Steve Adams

• ROH and Mullins should get QOs. I’m not making a QO to Eflin when he’s struggling like this or Sugano at his age and with a K% sitting around 14%
• That assumes no trades, of course, but I’d be open to trading all of the rentals barring some insane 12-game win streak or something. Even with the O’s playing better of late, they’re 10 under .500, last in the division and 7 back in the Wild Card.

Juan Soto

• Am I back

Steve Adams

• Soto never went anywhere. He had a two-week slump and certain corners of the media/internet decided to cook up a “What’s wrong with Juan Soto” narrative. Juan Soto is an elite baseball player. He’s also human, and when he shows that humanity early in a season, I suppose people will freak out ad nauseum, but the notion that there was ever anything “wrong” with Soto never held any traction for me.

Marlins

• If Sandy Alcántara can’t show teams that he’s back to his 2023 form, Miami should just keep him and see what he’s got next spring, right?

Steve Adams

• White Sox fans asked this same thing about Luis Robert at last year’s deadline.

Suarez to Cubs

• Doesn’t this make too much sense?   Allows Shaw to go to bench and gets rid of Berti/Brujan.   Slots Dansby out of 4/5 hole to 7.  Gives Cubs that power bat needed in playoffs.    Improves bench, lengthens lineup again and give thump if needed.  Of course you live and die with strikeouts,  but hes the perfect offensive guy needed.

Steve Adams

• If the Cubs get Eugenio Suarez, they’re going to send Shaw to AAA to get everyday at-bats, not play 1-2x per week. So that doesn’t really improve the bench.And while sure, Suarez makes sense for the Cubs, he also makes sense for the Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Brewers and others, so it’s not like we’re talking a fait accompli here.

Trader Jerry’s

• Which do you think should be a higher priority for the Mariners this deadline: finding a reliable infield bat or shoring up the bullpen?

Steve Adams

• Getting more offense. The Mariners have a nice track record of spinning low-cost, seemingly fungible relief pickups into quality bullpen pieces. They don’t need to pay an exorbitant price in trades to add a reliever. Plus they just got Matt Brash back a bit ago. Munoz/Brash is one of the most outrageous late-inning combos in MLB.

Sophia

• Any chance the Pirates could have a winning team next year?

Steve Adams

• I wouldn’t call it especially likely, but they  could have a rotation led by Skenes, Chandler, Keller (if he’s not traded) some combo of Ashcraft/Harrington/Burrows/Barco, and a cheap veteran fill-in…. get a rebound from Reynolds, a true breakout from Cruz, slightly above-average offense from Horwitz, and hit on a cheap offseason bat … I mean, it’s a lot that has to go right, but no, I don’t think it’s impossible. Just like … “possible” in a 10% chance sort of way.

Blake

• If the Pirates trade Bryan Reynolds, what will they get in return?

Steve Adams

• Some salary relief? Reynolds is 30 going on 31, his offense this year is below average, and he’s signed all the way through 2030.

John

• Will we see draft picks become tradeable in the next CBA? Seems like something both sides should be ok with that would make the draft more interesting for fans, while also opening up new avenues to competing for rebuilding teams.

Steve Adams

• I’ve been saying for the past three CBAs that I hope so, but it’s never really been a hot-button issue. I doubt it will be this time around, either, but here’s hoping.

Michael

• Would the Phillies consider trading Ranger Suarez to add a right-handed bat, considering their SP depth and that it remains unlikely they sign him in the offseason with other SP salary commitments?

Steve Adams

• I’d be very surprised. They have nice rotation depth, but Abel and Painter will be on workload limits, Nola is already banged up, and pitching depth dries up in a hurry.Ranger is an easy QO candidate, too, so he’ll net them a pick even if he leaves. They could very easily add a right-handed bat without giving up Suarez.

ARGHHHH

• About how many questions do you get during these?  Seems my questions never get answered

Steve Adams

• This is a curiously lightly attended chat and there are 549 people in here right now

Red Sox Fan

• Is it possible that the Red Sox trade Bregman, then Bregman resigns in the offseason?

Steve Adams

• See prior answer re: Bregman

CBA

• Word has it that Manfred wants to change how Free Agency works in the next agreement, by putting a deadline on SIGNING.   Thoughts??   I think that is as unlikely to happen as an actual SALARY CAP.

Steve Adams

• Bregman and the owners have wanted a signing deadline for awhile. Why wouldn’t they? It’s extra leverage for them. Players are going to push back on anything they deem a restriction on a truly open market. A signing deadline is that.
• I know some fans want it. I — even absent my employment here — have always liked that the offseason spans all winter. I’m a baseball sicko. Why wouldn’t I want year-round baseball news and transactions? Keep it nice and dragged out, haha

Matt Gage

• Can you see me ending up back with the Dodgers.  They know me and they always seem to have injured pitchers.

Steve Adams

• He’s a cheap left-handed reliever. I can see him landing with any team in MLB, honestly. He’s going to be on the fringe of the roster wherever he lands and could well be in this same spot again a few weeks or a month from now

Manfred

• Why do I care what Bregman wants for a deadline?

Steve Adams

• Ha, whoops
• Bregman on the brain I guess. Rent-free!

Bobby Bonilla Day

• Not a single tip of the cap to the captain of the deferred contract.   Let’s give credit where credit is due….each July 1.

Steve Adams

• Bobby Bonilla day is a weird narrative. The Braves gave Bruce Sutter a way crazier deferral structure back in like 1985, one that paid him for 30+ years, and no one talks about it.
• https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/399252/2018/06/25/move-over-bobby-bon…

MikeM

• Any interest in Yoan Moncada at the deadline?  Hes having a decent year when healthy.

Steve Adams

• Sure, I don’t think he’d fetch a huge return, but he’s been productive in the 30 games he’s managed to stay healthy and he’s a non-QO-candidate free agent

Yankee trader

• Dominguez and Spencer Jones to Philly for Stott and Marsh? Philly needs a JOLT and Aiden Miller should be here sometime next season?

Steve Adams

• Yankees aren’t making that trade (and I don’t even really like Spencer Jones)

Who Says No

• Severino for Santander in a regrettable free agent signing swap.

Steve Adams

• Santander’s on a longer deal and owed more money. Doubt the A’s are that anxious to move him. He was also playing through a shoulder subluxation for a good chunk of May, so let’s see what he looks like when he’s healthy.

kc

• Anyone traded on A’s besides Urias?

Steve Adams

• Urias, yes. I think Springs has a good chance. Andujar

More O’s Losses Please

• The better Trevor Rogers throws, the better the argument for keeping him AND trading him. I say trade while he’s throwing well. What’s your call?

Steve Adams

• He’s made four starts with a below-average K%, a .200 BABIP and an 81% strand rate. He’s throwing a bit harder. The pitch selection is largely unchanged minus swapping out some sinkers for more four-seamers. I haven’t dived headlong into seeing if the shape and movement on his breaking pitches is dramatically different, but this feels far more like some small sample noise than a genuine rebound.
• He’s giving up boatloads of hard contact (52.5%) and wasn’t even pitching well in Norfolk before his recall. I’m sure the O’s are pushing the “we rebuilt him! we fixed him!” narrative, but as of now, I’m not buying it and don’t think he’d command much of a return in a trade.

bob e

• Could Cal Raleigh get trade in mega blockbuster

Steve Adams

• Nope

Tim

• Do the Cardinals  extend a qualifying offer to Ryan Helsley

Steve Adams

• If they don’t trade him, they should.

QO Bubble

• Aside from nobrainers, who just makes it as of now and who just misses

Steve Adams

• QO: Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Gleyber Torres, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, Luke WeaverSome borderline/big-name candidates who I’d probably pass on right now, QO-wise: Luis Arraez, Willi Castro, Trent Grisham, Tyler Mahle, Zac Gallen, Paul GoldschmidtWilliams and Weaver are admittedly a little borderline, but I like both pitchers well enough that I expect them to justify it more clearly in the final three months.

  D-backs would probably QO Gallen regardless, but man he has been SO bad.

Matt Arnold

• Bo Bichette for Luis Pena and Tyler Black. Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Blue Jays aren’t going to sell
• I mean, I suppose they could lose like 12 in a row, but … as of right now, not happening.

reds reds reds

• could suarez or naylor make sense for the reds? both have ties with the team and geno has been open to a return. naylor has longtime connections with tito. it would provide the bat the reds need to make a playoff push.

Steve Adams

• Both make sense, sure, but as I noted on Suarez earlier, they both make sense for a good 5-10 teams around the league. (Not all the same teams, but both will have broad-reaching markets)

More likely

• Which is more likely, Dodgers losing 12 in a row or White Sox winning 12 in a row?

Steve Adams

• Which is likelier?

  ---

  Dodgers lose 12 straight (49.7% | 90 votes)

  White Sox win 12 straight (50.2% | 91 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 181

Taker55

• Bellinger feels like a sure opt-out at this pace, right?

Steve Adams

• It’s a net $20MM decision. I’ve been of the mind since spring training that he’ll opt out unless he gets seriously injured or reverts to his horrendous 2021-22 form.
• Right now, it’s an easy call to opt out.

Joey Gallo Superfan

• Could the Rockies sign Joey Gallo to be their closer

Steve Adams

• I support this plan.

Windows of Contention

• For Arizona in particular, should they be focused on 2026 or 2027 for their next splurge? There’s a lot leaving the team this year (either via trade or free agency), but there’s also significant mound talent returning in the second half of 2026. Whether in trades or free agency, should the team be focused on MLB ready talent or guys who may take another year to reach MLB ready status?

Steve Adams

• They’re still going to have a lineup built around Carroll, Perdomo, Marte, Moreno and hopefully Jordan Lawlar, with some decent role players like Pavin Smith, Lourdes Gurriel, etc.The pitching needs work, but the lineup is impressive and the books are reasonably clean. There’s a lot of work to be done on the pitching side of things, but the second half can be used as a means of evaluating some in-house arms (and some younger guys they pick up if/when they trade Suarez, Naylor, Shelby, etc.) … I wouldn’t punt on 2026 by any stretch, but they do need to figure out how to get some affordable pitching help. Big investments in Burnes and E-Rod obviously haven’t worked out.
• Ok, I’ve got to call it this week.I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, two weekly subscriber-only chats (one with me, one with Anthony) where your odds of getting a question answered are much better, direct Q&A opps with Darragh McDonald, access to our new Trade Deadline Outlook series, access to our Contract Tracker, GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.

  Enjoy the rest of your week, everyone!