Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.
By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.
There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.
However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.
The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.
In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.
The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.
Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.
A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.
Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images
I wouldn’t take the risk with him. He had a nice season, but time to move on.
I understand Fever but you can never have enough pitching. Some are returning in 26 but not all are “established starters”. If he’s healthy, he’s unlikely to accept the QO so it comes down to the medical records and films. Given its one season should he accept, I’d offer it unless the doctors are really concerned.
dewey – I like him, but I can’t forget he signed with the Sox likely knowing he was on the verge of major surgery. There’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t do something similar again.
The Sox have so many SP’s right now ….. Dobbins, Harrison, Criswell, Fitts, Early, Tolle, Sandoval, Crawford, Bello, Crochet. I’m guessing/hoping they add one more solid SP this offseason, so that makes 11 which should be enough to contend barring an unusual amount of injuries.
Fever, that’s a lot of arms, but youre lacking the 1-2 punch to back up Crochet.
Im not sure Gio is *that guy* due to how he performed facing tougher lineups. Its really hard because he was coming off the long layoff and results are usually iffy that first season back compared to what is put up later.
But he generally had trouble all season with better hitting (at their time) clubs – TOR, TEX, ATL, CHC, PHI,SD, NYY all had their way with him for the most part. Even the Angels were able to tag him for 7 ER, and the As got 4 in 4 innings.
I’d defer to the team on the QO as long as it doesnt make or break their ability to get that second ace or very high #2 caliber arm.
GA: whether Giolito accepts the QO should not alter the sox plans to get a number 2. That being said I’d be fine with the sox offering it and him passing or taking it. No such thing as a bad one year contract.
I’d rather sign Imei (sp) out of Japan
“one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Sounds like their sources are Boone and Cashman.
Sounds like Boston’s decision will fall on the medical staff. What is the average salary for a number 4 starter? Is that figure lower than the Qualifying Offer?
If it’s not lower then it should be – I suspect it is due to a lot of pre-arb guys falling into the 4 / 5 spots on most rosters.
It’s not like you are intentionally signing a 4 at 22 mil for sure. A guy you signed as a 1/2 may end up down the rotation – I mean, even the Dodgers only pay 1 mil for Ohtani in the 4 spot right now!
Aramis Ramirez was the last mutual option in 2015 with Milwaukee.
Elbow and shoulder discomfort makes me put my wallet away
A $19M option pickup for Boston isn’t unreasonable, but I’m still inclined to think they’ll turn it down. Rare case where I think both sides could think about it.
For around $2m you roll the dice he declines and you get the QO pick. If youre fine with paying 19m, just pay the extra for a shot at a prospect.
1 year of Gio @ 19-21m is replaceable either on the open market or maybe even internally
Sounds like the kind of cat the Angels would overpay for but they already traded for him
No qualifying offer but I’d keep tabs with him and see what his market shows. Maybe he has to settle for a 1yr prove-it deal? Then I would kick the tires.
If he is still around in February and we haven’t got a #2 that we are happy with then I’d bring Gio in for a discussion of 2yr deal but 2nd year based on reaching incentives. Gio was lights out back in July for about 7 straight starts which made him very valuable to our season.
He’s a playoff-caliber starter with strikeout stuff and it’s one year for ~$22m. Pay up. Giolito is a better bet than Pivetta was last year, and Pivetta turned out to be a brilliant QO offer. The real tragedy here is Boston going JUST over the luxury tax line— AGAIN. Dip under or go big!
Ranger Suarez would be a good fit in Boston. With low velocity, and a few injuries, he won’t be super pricey. He’s younger than Giolito, better of late and has a ceiling of a number two.