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Cubs Option Matt Shaw

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The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.

Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.

The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.

All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.

Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.

Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.

It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.

If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook

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The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.

There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)

Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.

Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ’pen.

Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.

That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup.  (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)

The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.

It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.

Cubs To Activate Cody Bellinger

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Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced that outfielder Cody Bellinger is going to be activated from the injured list today, relayed by Bruce Levine of 670 The Score on X. The full slate of moves was laid out by Madde Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X, with outfielder Alexander Canario optioned to Triple-A, while right-hander Daniel Palencia was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder stiffness with fellow righty Keegan Thompson recalled to take his place. Additionally, outfielder Seiya Suzuki is going on a rehab assignment, playing with Triple-A Iowa tomorrow. Lee was among those to relay that on X.

Bellinger landed on the IL a couple of weeks ago after colliding with the Wrigley Field wall and fracturing two ribs. Despite that scary diagnosis, he’s made a quick return without going out on a rehab assignment.

Prior to the injury, Bellinger had hit five home runs in his first 22 games of the season. Despite a tiny .215 batting average on balls in play, he was still slashing .226/.320/.440 for a 107 wRC+. With the Cubs in 2023, he hit 26 homers and had a .307/.356/.525 batting line, which translated to a 134 wRC+.

The quick return should be good for both the club and for Bellinger personally. Assuming he finds a bit better batted ball luck going forward, his numbers this year could move closer to where they were last year. That would naturally be good for the club’s offense while also helping set Bellinger up for this winter.

Despite his strong 2023 season, Bellinger never found a large contract to his liking. That was perhaps at least partially due to his notable struggles in 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery. He returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with opt-outs after each season, allowing him to grab a bit of financial security while also giving him the chance to return to free agency when he sees fit.

Another lengthy injury layoff would have hurt his chances at maximizing his earning power this coming winter, so the quick turnaround still gives him a shot at putting together a good stretch of quality playing time between now and the end of the year.

Pete Crow-Armstrong came up when Bellinger first got injured but it seems he’s sticking around for now. His defense is excellent but he’s hitting just .216/.231/.351 on the year so far. Perhaps he will stick in center with Bellinger in a corner or in the designated hitter slot, with Mike Tauchman and Ian Happ also in that mix. But when Suzuki is ready to come off the IL, perhaps Crow-Armstrong will be optioned back down for regular playing time with Bellinger back in the regular center field role.

Cubs Place Jordan Wicks On 15-Day IL, Select Richard Lovelady

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The Cubs announced a quartet of roster moves today, including the placement (retroactive to April 25) of left-hander Jordan Wicks on the 15-day injured list due to a left forearm strain.  Chicago also optioned southpaw Luke Little to Triple-A Iowa, while calling up righty Daniel Palencia from Iowa and selecting the contract of left-hander Richard Lovelady.

News of Wicks’ injury broke yesterday, as the left-hander was an early scratch from what was supposed to be a start in tonight’s game against the Red Sox.  It isn’t surprising that Wicks was placed on the IL for at least precautionary reasons, though the severity of the strain isn’t yet known.  Speaking to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune and other reporters today, Wicks didn’t feel too concerned about the strain, though the forearm soreness first arose prior to his previous start and resurfaced afterwards.

The 24-year-old Wicks was selected 21st overall in the 2021 draft, and made his MLB debut in the form of seven starts and 34 innings for the Cubs last season.  A respectable (if not totally inspiring) 4.41 ERA over that first taste of the majors put Wicks in the running for a rotation job heading into Spring Training, though Jameson Taillon’s injury helped clear Wicks’ path to a starting role.  Justin Steele was then lost to the IL on Opening Day and both Kyle Hendricks and Drew Smyly were also injured within the last week, so Wicks’ forearm strain only continues the string of health woes hitting the Cubs early in the season.

Wicks had performed pretty well over five starts and 23 innings in 2024, or at least better than his 4.70 ERA would indicate.  A .358 BABIP and a 64.3% strand rate helped inflate that ERA almost a full run beyond Wicks’ much more palatable 3.62 SIERA, and his 25.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.  Batters have been making solid contact against Wicks’ offerings, though he has also fooled his share of hitters with a chase rate that sits in the 88th percentile of all pitchers.

With Wicks out for at least the 15-day minimum, the Cubs will have to again dig into their starting depth.  Shota Imanaga has emerged as the ace of the staff in his outstanding rookie season, youngster Javier Assad has looked very sharp over five starts, and Taillon is now back from the IL.  Beyond this trio, rookie Ben Brown might now be sticking in the rotation, and Hayden Wesneski could be stretched out into starter’s duty.  Veteran Julio Teheran is available at Triple-A, and Steele might not be too far away, as he is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment this week as he recovers from his hamstring strain.

Palencia has some starting experience in the minors but has worked exclusively as a reliever during his two Major League seasons.  He could get some multi-inning work if Wesneski is indeed bumped back into the rotation, while Lovelady should take on a strict (and possibly short-term) bullpen role.

Lovelady signed a minor league deal with Chicago during the offseason, and his 5.84 ERA over 12 1/3 innings (10 appearances) for Triple-A Iowa is one of the more misleading stat lines in recent memory.  Despite a 33.3% strikeout rate, 1.7% walk rate, a 53.8% grounder rate and zero homers allowed, Lovelady still has a 5.84 ERA, due mostly to an extreme .564 BABIP.

The 28-year-old southpaw will now get another look in the majors after posting a 5.26 ERA over 65 previous big league frames with the Royals and A’s since the start of the 2019 season.  Lovelady missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and resurfaced last year to deliver a 4.63 ERA across 23 1/3 innings for Oakland.

NL Central Notes: Gray, Cubs, Brewers

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The Cardinals started the season without their biggest offseason signing, as staff ace Sonny Gray opened the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to a hamstring strain. The right-hander was scheduled for a final rehab start this past week before returning to big league action, but those plans were dashed by an unfortunate rainout that kept Gray from taking the mound. The club initially announced that Gray would have his Triple-A start pushed back to this coming Tuesday, but manager Carlos Marmol revealed to reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) today that Gray’s start that day will actually be for the big league club.

Per Marmol, Gray will be limited to around 65 pitches in his Cardinals debut, where he’ll take on the Phillies in the second game of a three-game set between the clubs. Gray landed in St. Louis back in November on a three-year, $75MM deal following a dominant 2023 season in Minnesota. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP for the Twins last year in a performance that earned him his third career All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The Cardinals are surely hoping Gray will bring that same form to St. Louis. The club was plagued by one of the worst starting pitching staffs in the majors last year, and the early returns haven’t been much better so far with the rotation’s 5.64 FIP in the young 2024 campaign is better than only the Rockies and Blue Jays among all big league clubs. Upon his return, Gray figures to replace struggling youngster Zack Thompson in the club’s rotation mix, slotting in alongside fellow veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs made a surprise roster move just before the start of their game against the Dodgers this afternoon, placing right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. It’s a significant blow to the club’s relief corps, as Merryweather has dominated with a 3.29 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.46 FIP in 73 appearances for the Cubs across the past two seasons. Merryweather’s absence will pave the way for right-hander Daniel Palencia, who pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 27 appearances in his rookie season last year, to join the club’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Merryweather’s role in the club’s late-inning mix alongside Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris figures to be filled by Mark Leiter Jr.
  • Speaking of pitching roster moves, the Brewers placed right-hander Jakob Junis on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a right shoulder impingement. Fortunately for Milwaukee, it sounds as though the issue isn’t particularly serious. According to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, an MRI on Junis’s shoulder came back clean and Junis told reporters that he hopes to begin ramping back up in a few days. That would seem to indicate an absence near the minimum for the right-hander, who’s been replaced by southpaw Aaron Ashby on the active roster while he recuperates. Ashby, 26 next month, did not pitch in the majors last year after undergoing shoulder surgery but now appears to be healthy, having already made a five-inning start at the Triple-A level this season.

Cubs Place Michael Fulmer On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed right-hander Michael Fulmer on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times (X link).  Righty Daniel Palencia was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

This is the second time in less than a month that a forearm strain has sent Fulmer to the IL, as he only returned earlier this week from a previous stint that sidelined him from August 25 to September 11.  Fulmer tossed two-thirds of an inning last Monday in what amounted to his only appearance in his return from the injured list.

Given the timing and nature of the injury, it would certainly seem like Fulmer’s 2023 season could be over.  Manager David Ross stated that Fulmer had been trying to pitch through some discomfort prior to his first IL trip, and if that forearm discomfort has continued, Fulmer will surely be held out beyond the 15-day minimum for precautionary reasons if nothing else.  With the Cubs in the wild card race, Fulmer might possibly be an option for a postseason roster if Chicago does make it into the playoffs, but that isn’t likely to be known until Fulmer undergoes another set of tests.

Fulmer has previously undergone both a Tommy John surgery and an ulnar nerve transposition surgery in his career, so he is unfortunately no stranger to significant arm problems.  This could give the Cubs and Fulmer even more reason for caution, and these late-season IL stints might certainly hamper Fulmer’s market as a free agent this winter.

The righty has a 4.42 ERA over 57 innings for Chicago this season, with a mediocre 11.8% walk rate standing out as Fulmer’s biggest problem.  This lack of control has undermined some other good numbers for Fulmer, as he has an above-average 27.4% strikeout rate and been among the game’s best at limiting hard contact.

Losing Fulmer is another blow to a Cubs bullpen that already lost closer Adbert Alzolay to a forearm strain earlier this week.  In need of relief help for the playoff push, the Cubs will be using Marcus Stroman out of the bullpen for at least a little while until Stroman fully ramps up after a lengthy stint on the injured list.  While Chicago’s relief corps has been solid overall this season, they’ll face a challenge with this makeshift approach over the regular season’s final weeks.

Cubs Select Daniel Palencia

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The Cubs have selected the contract of right-hander Daniel Palencia, a move first reported by Marcos Grunfeld of El Emergente. The full slate of moves, as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, also sees infielder Patrick Wisdom activated from the injured list. In corresponding active roster moves, infielder Nick Madrigal has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain while right-hander Hayden Wesneski has been optioned. To open a spot on the 40-man for Palencia, righty Brad Boxberger was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Palencia, 23, was originally a prospect with the Athletics, but came over to the Cubs in the 2021 trade that sent lefty Andrew Chafin to Oakland. He’s worked mostly as a starter, but the club recently converted him to relief work upon promoting him to Triple-A.

The results there have been mixed, as he’s posted an ERA of 7.90 through 13 outings. That’s a small sample and there might be some fluky bad luck in there, considering his 50.9% strand rate. He’s struck out 27.3% of batters faced while walking 10.6%. His 4.09 FIP suggests he has deserved better results than he’s actually gotten so far. The Cubs will give him a shot at getting big league hitters out and hope that the wheel of fortune spins in a better direction for him going forward.

Madrigal left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness and will sit out the next 10 days. It’s unclear how severe his injury is, but the upcoming All-Star break would allow him to miss only a handful of games if it’s on the minor side. He’s only struck out in 9.6% of his plate appearances but has just one home run, producing a .278/.335/.364 batting line. His roster spot will go to a hitter with the opposite profile, as Wisdom has 14 homers but a massive 38.9% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .196/.285/.467.

As for Boxberger, he’ll been on the injured list since May 14 due to a right forearm strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, meaning he can technically return after the All-Star break. But since he hasn’t yet started a rehab assignment, that doesn’t seem especially likely, making this transaction a mere formality.

Justin Steele To Undergo MRI Due To Forearm Tightness

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4:25pm: Steele will undergo an MRI, Ross tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

4:05pm: Cubs left-hander Justin Steele was removed from today’s start after throwing three perfect innings. The trainer had visited him in that third inning and Steele finished the frame but didn’t return in the fourth. The club later announced to reporters, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, that the southpaw was removed due to forearm tightness.

It’s too early for the club to have any kind of firm diagnosis on the issue, but Steele will undoubtedly undergo further testing to get a clearer picture of the situation. Forearm tightness is an ominous combination of words for a pitcher as it often precedes a serious ailment, though that’s not always the case. Nonetheless, it will be a situation to monitor given that Steele has only grown in importance recently.

Now 27, Steele broke out last year by posting a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings over 24 starts. He struck out 24.6% of batters faced, walked 9.8% and got grounders at a 51.2% rate. He’s only further cemented himself in the Chicago rotation this year, as his outing today dropped his ERA to 2.65. His strikeout and ground ball rates have declined slightly, but he’s also allowing far fewer walks and home runs.

With the recent return of Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs have a set rotation that also consists of Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly and Steele. The strength of that group pushed Hayden Wesneski out of the picture, as he was optioned to the minors earlier this month. He was recalled yesterday with the plan of him helping out of the bullpen, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. That has come into play quickly, as he jumped into today’s game when Steele departed, throwing 59 pitches over 3 2/3 innings.

Prior to getting optioned, Wesneski had been working as a starter and could perhaps do so again if Steele needs to miss any time. That would likely be a downgrade for the club, as the righty had a 5.03 ERA in his eight starts this year. He’s still young, 25 years old, and could certainly take a step forward. But Steele has been one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball in many categories this year, including ERA, FIP and fWAR. It would be unfair to expect just about any pitcher to step in and replicate that kind of production.

There could also potentially be effects elsewhere in the club’s system, as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier today that the club was open to various paths to supplementing its bullpen. Codi Heuer is working his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery, but the club has also seemingly given some thought to promoting youngsters like Ben Brown or Daniel Palencia. “Everyone is on the radar at this point,” manager David Ross said. “We’re hoping Codi comes back soon. That could be, hopefully, another big-league arm that is able to help us out. Ben Brown has been throwing the ball really well in the starter role. Palencia has been sent to the ‘pen, to work out of the ‘pen and try to learn that role — what that consists of, how to go back-to-back, the recovery with all that. There’s a plan in place, for sure, and big-picture stuff. But this is what we’ve got right now. We have conversations daily about those things.”

Brown, 23, came over from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. He has a 2.25 ERA through nine starts this year, split between Double-A and Triple-A. Palencia, meanwhile, came over from the Athletics in the 2021 Andrew Chafin deal. He had a 5.87 ERA through five Double-A starts this year before getting bumped to the Triple-A bullpen for his two most recent appearances. Neither player has made their major league debut yet but Brown does have a 40-man roster spot.

The club is scrambling a bit to try to cover for a poor performance from its bullpen so far this year. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 4.55 on the season, a mark that places them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league. All of these conversations were happening before Steele’s departure today. If that proves to be an injury of any significance, it would only stretch their staff further, though they will surely be hoping it proves to be something minor that passes quickly.

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