MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but as always, feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
• Happy Tuesday all — let’s get rolling

Bo Bichette

• The Blue Jays cant really sign me if my price tag reaches $250-300 million right?  I mean you can barely call me a shortstop.  Any predictions?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think anyone is going to sign Bichette at that price point. I suppose it’s always possible someone loses their mind and goes to Xander Bogaerts levels, but Bogaerts is the only prominently paid infield free agent who hit the market as a shortstop but with clear long-term doubts about his viability at the position. I have Bichette around $200MM flat, give or take $10-15MM either way, depending on market context, how he finishes, hits in the postseason, etc.I do think the Jays can afford to sign him long-term.

87 champs

• Why are the Twins collecting left-handed hitting outfielders, including their top prospects?  Are Larnach and Walbeck gone during the off season?

Steve Adams

• I’d be surprised if Larnach is back next year. They’ve had him for in the majors for parts of five seasons now, and he just kind of is what he is … defensively limited, big power, can’t hit lefties, good-not-great against righties.I don’t really understand why they acquired James Outman, particularly since he’s out of options next year, but I suppose he’ll be a fourth OF in 2026 with Buxton and two of Wallner/Jenkins/Rodriguez rounding things out (pending any offseason additions via trade or free agency — the former seemingly likelier than the latter)

PhilsPhansince1965

• Low and high projections for a Ranger Suarez deal this winter?

Steve Adams

• I don’t see any reason he comes in under Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM deal, and I think he has a good case to push into the Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray range of $22-23MM annually over five years.

O’s close

• Every time Ryan Helsley gets shelled with the Mets, his prospects for a big free agent contract fade. Looking like a 1-year pillow contract for a team desperate for a closer, like the Orioles, right?

Steve Adams

• His stock was already down after a good-not-great run in St. Louis this year (still don’t know why they didn’t trade him in the winter). It comes down to a matter of preference for him, probably. I’m sure plenty of teams would love to “buy low” on a weighty one-year deal (still worth $10MM+). Helsley could go that route, try to rebound, and look for the big long-term deal next winter. But he’s already 31 (32 next July), and if he takes another step back, his chances of a lucrative long-term deal are shot.There are probably teams still willing to bet on the stuff and track record to put forth two- and three-year deals with more modest AAVs than he’d have gotten with a typical Helsley season. Does he want to go like 1/15 and try again, or would he take 2/26 or 3/30 and max out right now?Those are the scenarios I expect he’ll have to weigh.

Don Kelly

• Is there any chance the Pirates DON’T bring me back next year? If so what would be there reason not to. I’ve managed the team to a 0.491 win % as opposed to Shelty’s 0.316%

Steve Adams

• At this point, I’d be surprised if he’s not back. Your mileage may vary on whether that’s a good or bad thing, but I’m kind of in the “it doesn’t matter all that much as long as Nutting owns this team,” honestly.At the very least, I don’t think Kelly has done anything to hurt his chances of keeping the job for a few years beyond the current season.

Merrill Kelly

• How do you like my chances of a three-year deal?

Steve Adams

• You can see in our handy Contract Tracker (cheap plug!) that he’d be just the third SP in the past decade to get three guaranteed years in a deal that starts with his age-37 season or later
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=S…
• I think two is far likelier
• (Scherzer and Rich Hill were the others … long live Mad Max and Dick Mountain)

Billy Heywood

• Bregman will surely opt out, does he stay or go? What does his next contract look like?

Steve Adams

• Yeah I don’t see any way he passes on the opt-out, barring some awful injury here in the final few weeks.Red Sox will be in the mix to keep him. Cubs, Tigers, Jays, Phillies all seem like viable alternatives. (I’d say Mariners, but they just don’t spend at this level on free agents under Dipoto)A five-year deal in the $160-170MM range feels safe/conservative, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out six years and $30MM+ annually.

Guest

• As a long-time Mets fan, it seems clear that a miss of the playoffs is looming over us 🙂  But should we make it, I know that Tong and McLean are eligible, but will Sproat be eligible for a playoff roster? Otherwise, this may be the most disastrous pitching staff the Mets assembled since the late 1970s.

Steve Adams

• Sproat is eligible, yes. You just need to be in the organization. (I wrote as much in his promotion post the other week) We’ve seen prospects who weren’t on the 40-man roster make their MLB debuts in the playoffs (Alex Kirilloff, Shane McClanahan, Adalberto Mondesi)He’d need to be an injury replacement, technically speaking, but they have no shortage of IL guys whose postseason roster spot he could effectively take over.

Matt M

• Could the Padres look to dump Bogey? Say put him with Salas and J Estrada?

Steve Adams

• He’s still owed eight years and $200MM, beginning in his age-33 season, and has posted basically league-average offensive numbers, Even if they paired him with Salas and Estrada and told another team “He’s all yours if you take the contract,” I highly doubt they’d find a taker at that rate.They can try to dump him, but it’s among the least tradeable contracts in the game.

Brian

• What does Schwarber next deal look like?  33 next year, with one + trait …

Steve Adams

• It’s not one plus trait — it’s one 80-grade trait (power) with plus plate discipline and probably a better hit tool than he gets credit for (not that it’s elite or anything). Every clubhouse he’s ever been in has absolutely raved about the leadership he brings and the benefit of having him around young players.Entering the season, I was squarely at like three years and $80-90MM since players of his age with his limited defensive ability just don’t get paid.I’ve completely thrown that out the window now and think he’s getting $30MM+ per season, probably over four years. If you told me 5/140, I’m not even sure I’d say it’s impossible.

  Some team is going to fall in love with him — in the Phillies case, a big-payroll club is already actively in love with him — and do something crazy.

Ryan

• Would Donovan and Nootbaar be enough for Woo from the Mariners this offseason? Or is more likely Donovan and a prospect?

Steve Adams

• Donovan/Noot isn’t even in the ballpark. And unless that unnamed prospect is like … JJ Wetherholt, I don’t think “Donovan + prospect” gets it done either. Four cheap years of a proven playoff-caliber starter like Woo is going to be priced exorbitantly on the trade market, even if you think he’s more like a very strong No. 2 than a true No. 1/ace (which is where I’m at).

Beachcomber

• Odds on Braves retained Boros client HSK?

Steve Adams

• I think he’ll just pick up the $16MM player option, but sure, there’s a chance they say “yeah this year was bad, but the SS market is terrible and we’re going to try to go get a frontloaded 3/39 with another opt-out,” I suppose. (Or another 2/30ish with an out)

woodruff

• Will I receive and reject a qualifying offer?

Steve Adams

• Yeah

BTinVT

• Bergert got lit up last night. Was going well. Thoughts? Thank you.

Steve Adams

• Lit up last night but otherwise quite good for both KC and SD. My colleague Anthony Franco and I were genuinely surprised the Royals pulled Bergert for Fermin at the deadline — and that was before we knew Kolek was in there too.I get the trade for the Padres but really like it for the Royals and think Bergert has a good chance to just be a solid No. 4 starter for them for the next several years.

Guest

• How does AA redo next season? Pitching or offense or both? They’ve got the money

Steve Adams

• Alex Anthopoulos got a headstart on the Braves’ offseason by claiming Kim. I think the bigger focus will be on deepening the rotation, just given all the injuries they’ve had, but the bench needs a lot of help too. Someone in the Willi Castro mold who can capably handle multiple infield and outfield positions would be prudent (though a lot of teams are going to have interest in Castro)

Justin

• Does Devin Williams end up on the Angels next year?

Steve Adams

• Angels love them some high-profile short-term guys like that

Guest

• OK now that we know Volpe isn’t the answer do we trade him in the office season

Steve Adams

• It wouldn’t shock me. I’d have said the Braves are a good fit before they claimed Kim, but they would be if Kim decides to opt out and test the market. Tigers, Marlins, Nats, Pirates… there are plenty of young clubs that I think  would be pretty intrigued with a buy-low scenario there, and he’s still young enough that he’d net a real return.Side note: remember all the “The Yankees can’t trade either Peraza or Volpe” talk a few years ago? Teams should be more willing to trade prospects than they are (and that extends well beyond the Bronx)

Make MLB Draft Like NFL Draft

• Hi Steve. What do you think of the idea of MLB allowing the trading of draft picks during the draft like in the NFL? I think it could make an added dimension to the July trading deadline and make the draft more exciting?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s nonsensical that MLB teams can’t trade standard draft picks (only the handful of Competitive Balance ones that are awarded every year … and that those can only be traded once)

I wish Mark Reynolds had hit 2 more career HRs

• Travis Bazzana looks like he’s living up to his draft stock now at AAA

Steve Adams

• Guardians’ Opening Day second baseman!

OZ

• Is the turn-around in the performance of Bryce Elder for real?  In a dismal season, his re-emergence and the arrival of Hurston Waldrep have offered a glimmer of hope.  What moves do you envision Alex Anthopoulos making this Winter?

Steve Adams

• Elder has had 4-5 really good starts, but he’s had a sub-.200 BABIP in there and stranded about 82% of his runners. He looks like the same guy to me … not as good as his random All-Star year but not nearly as bad as 2024 or even earlier this season. Modest stuff, decent command, passable but volatile fifth starter.Waldrep looks better, but he’s also getting by with a crazy-low BABIP, crazy-high strand rate and a minuscule homer-to-flyball rate — all of which looks unsustainable. Still more bullish on him long-term, but I wouldn’t expect him to be close to this good

DelightfulDon

• Two Questions: Daylen Lile vs Dylen Crews – They both offer a different perspective and increasing potential. How do you see the Nats utilizing these players in 2026?  My second question is about STL closers.  JoJo and O’Brian have pitched well this year. Historically, between the two O’Brian would be the pick as JoJo is a lefty.  In 2026, how do you foresee the Cards managing their closers?

Steve Adams

• Crews will get every opportunity to be a cornerstone outfielder. Lile feels more like a guy who you’re fine with as your starting LF while he’s cheap but who has a much more limited long-term ceiling.I would imagine that with one year of control remaining, JoJo Romero is getting traded this offseason. Riley O’Brien will be in the ’pen next year, but I would imagine a good bit of roster turnover in St. Louis this winter, so I expect the late-inning relief corps to look pretty different

Dave R.

• Robbie Snelling has a 1.27 ERA in his last 12 minor league starts. Do the Marlins just hate him? I know he’s not on the 40-man, but there are plenty of guys who are that shouldn’t be.

Steve Adams

• Could easily justify calling him up. My assumption is they don’t want to right now since they don’t need to add him to the 40-man this winter to protect him from the Rule 5. Keeping him in AAA effectively buys them an extra roster spot all winter, and they can just select him in camp next year or early in the season.

Early

• Could Lodolo be on the move this coming offseason with two years of control?

Steve Adams

• I could see the Reds listening, for sure. I don’t think they’ll necessarily shop him outright, but with Greene, Burns, Abbott, Lowder, Singer and Petty all around, plus Aguiar and Williamson still in the org and mending from injury, there’s decent pitching depth.Moving Singer is the safer bet, since he only has one pricey year of control left, but Lodolo would net a better return

Turang Test

• Why does the Giants bullpen hate Justin Verlander?  Would his return to SF in ‘26 be contingent on pen upgrades?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, he’s pitched decently but can’t seem to buy a win more often than not. I don’t think that in a vacuum, the bullpen would dissuade him from returning there. But in general, there are a lot of questions about San Francisco’s ability to contend next year, and I could see Verlander simply preferring to sign as a fifth starter for a more clear-cut contender.We’ll see what the Giants do early in the offseason, of course. If they come out and sign Kyle Tucker, Gleyber Torres and Edwin Diaz or something nutty like that, then Verlander obviously thinks differently about their chances of competing than he would at the outset of free agency.Bottom line: Verlander is going to be capped at one year, probably in the $10-15MM range again. A lot of teams will be interested.

Tom Kelly’s blues

• If the Twins move Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan this off season are they writing off 2026 and 2027?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, if they move that pair, they’re basically waving the white flag and committing to a mini-rebuild. If they do go that route, the farm is already stacked — and will be further so due to those returns — and the long-term payroll outlook is nearly blank.I don’t think they’d need a yearslong rebuild, but that’s also an argument against them moving Ryan/Lopez at all. You could easily see them investing in the ’pen, a couple bats and leaning on their farm to quickly turn things around in a so-so division.But based on how the Pohlads have operated in recent years, I have a hard time keeping a straight face while talking about them jumping right back into free agency and win-now mode.

Doug

• Has Cease pitched himself into a 2/3 year deal with opt outs and an AAV in the low to mid $20s?

Steve Adams

• As with Helsley before, he’ll have various scenarios to consider. I do think a two-year deal worth, say, $45MM with an opt-out is one such scenario. Given the durability and the quality of his stuff, I have to imagine there are teams that would still put down a Gausman/Ray-esque five years and $110-120MM on him, thinking that it’s a bargain rate for someone with No. 1 upside and a relatively high floor.My assumption is that between those two options, Cease would go the short-term route and bet on himself, a la Blake Snell a couple winters ago.

Guest

• What happens to Buehler next year?

Steve Adams

• He signs a cheaper one-year deal than the one he did this past winter and takes another shot at bouncing back

Gaurdiansjoe

• With clase facing a ban and Espino to injury prone to be a starter, will we be seeing him head to the bullpen (if he ever gets off the IR)?

Steve Adams

• Espino has pitched like 18 innings since the end of the 2021 season. You can’t bank on ever getting anything from him, but if he ends up quasi-healthy in the next year or so, yeah I would say a move to short relief is in his best interest.

Guest

• Where will the Cardinals stand next year with Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, and their pitching prospects

Steve Adams

• As I alluded to earlier, I think there’ll be plenty of changes to the roster this winter. Walker, Gorman, Saggese, Graceffo, Nootbaar, Herrera … a lot of the formerly young core seems like it’ll be very much available. The Cards have gotten tons of looks at this group over the years, and while it’s hard to sell low on some formerly well-regarded prospects, it’s easier when the guy making the trades isn’t the one who drafted/acquired them. I think Chaim Bloom will have a pretty active winter.

Strident’sTrident

• Do you think Josh Naylor signs with Seattle Mariners this off season. What’s your prediction on his contract?

Steve Adams

• He’s one of our tougher ones to predict, because the market doesn’t really turn out for 1B-only guys, but he’s one of the steadiest and most consistent bats available and doesn’t turn 29 until June, so age is on his side.I still question whether someone would go 5+ years on him, but four years and $15-17MM per year doesn’t feel outrageous to me.Mitch Garver is the only free agent hitter the Mariners have signed for multiple years under Jerry Dipoto since he took over baseball operations in Seattle a decade ago, so I lean against them re-signing him.

Terry

• Keep hearing Kyle Tucker to Dodgers next year? Your thoughts?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s natural that a lot of people would predict the top free agent to sign with the biggest-spending team, but outside of players in very unique circumstances (Ohtani, Yamamoto), the Dodgers haven’t spent like this in free agency. They usually offer shorter-term deals with higher annual rates.They’re also pretty deep in OF, with Pages, Teoscar, Edman, Zyhir Hope, Josue De Paula. Could always try to dump the final couple years of Teoscar, but the Dodgers don’t stand as the best or most logical Tucker pick to me.
• I’ve got to call it for the week. Anthony will have a chat with Front Office subscribers tomorrow. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker and more.Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!