As he nears the end of his first Major League season, Tomoyuki Sugano is looking to make it an encore, as he tells the Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka that he is hoping to return to the bigs in 2026. Sugano will be a free agent this winter after the expiration of the one-year, $13MM contract he signed with the Orioles last offseason.
The right-hander chose to come to North America on the heels of a very successful and decorated 12-year run with the Yomiuri Giants, and the transition from NPB to MLB naturally came with a few bumps. Sugano has a 4.39 ERA over 28 starts and 149 2/3 innings, and this durability alone was a plus for a Baltimore team plagued by pitching injuries.
An excellent 5.5% walk rate is Sugano’s biggest calling card, but his other metrics have been much shakier. Both Sugano’s strikeout rate (15.6%) and barrel rate (11.4%) rank only in the seventh percentile of all pitchers, and only seven pitchers have surrendered more home runs than Sugano’s 28 big flies. There’s still time for Sugano to improve on these numbers, though keeping the ball in the park will be tricky since his last two starts are scheduled to come against the powerful Yankees.
Sugano has a six-pitch arsenal, headlined by a splitter that he threw 23.5% of the time. Looking back on his first Major League campaign, Sugano told Kostka that he felt he didn’t take full advantage of his pitch variety, as batters caught onto the righty’s habits of tossing high fastballs and splitters lower in the zone. Sugano’s traditional four-seamer didn’t fool many hitters, as Statcast graded the 92.7mph pitch with a -4 Pitch Value.
Looking ahead to next season, Sugano said that “from a personal standpoint, I know why I wasn’t successful. I know what to fix for next year.” He also made another midseason adjustment in taking efforts to prevent tipping pitches, and in general, it is fair to view any rookie season (even when the rookie is 35 years old) as a learning period for a pitcher facing MLB hitters for the first time.
Sugano turns 36 next month, so another one-year deal seems like a lock for any interested teams. Sugano’s advanced metrics won’t hold much appeal to some analytically-inclined front offices, yet his strong control and ability to take the ball every fifth day will work in his favor. Speculatively speaking, the Giants and Angels were both interested in Sugano last offseason, and could check in again once he is back on the market. A reunion with the Orioles can’t be ruled out, depending on how Baltimore chooses to address its rotation needs.
Guy is a super solid 4/5 guy. Some real nice runs this season.
Os should bring him back
They’d be nuts not to. An innings eater’s innings eater.
Orioles can use him as a 5/long reliever. Sign him again.
Plenty of teams will make offers to him to exclusively start for two years.
That’s a good point, however, I don’t think it’s about the money. I’m hoping that he’s enjoyed his time in Baltimore and may stay for the familiarity and lack of needing to learn a new org this late in his career. that’s a real homer take, but what do we have if we don’t have our prejudices? LOL
No way. This is like bringing back Kyle Gibson after he was decent for us. I think Sugano was lucky the bottom line numbers looked as good as they did. I hope we aim higher with Wells and Bradish now healthy.
The oldest Japanese player to come to the majors is Ken Takahashi who was 40 years old when he pitched his sole MLB season for the Mets. He was quite good, 2.96 ERA in 27.1 innings.
I am not sure why he returned to Japan for 2010, maybe he just wanted to see if he could play in the majors and then return home.
He scratched an itch.
There’s medicines for that.
He’s been a pretty reliable hand for my O’s. A bit too homer prone for sure, but availability in sports nowadays is probably the most underrated ability to have. I imagine theres some mutual interest in bringing him back but I also imagine he will have a decent list of suitors as well, especially on a short term deal.
As an Os fan id have no problem with them bringing him back
If Sugano and Kremer are your 4 and 5 Sp , you again will be a bad team. I have no interest in having him back.
With Rogers, Bradish, Wells, and Rodriguez that should speak for 4 spots but the O’s need a number one type (Zac Gallen, or trade for Alcantara) if they plan to dig themselves out of the hole they are in next season
Would Gallen or Sandy Alcantra really be guaranteed to be a better “number one types” than Rogers, Bradish and possibly Rodriguez (if Rodriguez is healthy)?
I don’t disagree that the Orioles need to add strong arms to their rotation, I just don’t know who that would be, and question whether a Gallen and Sandy would be it.
if they’re going to really make a push for next year, it seems like they should have bigger targets than those two.
and I also think they need two starters not just one, so they’re not as susceptible to injury as this year. they need a Dodger-esque number of arms.
Alcantara seems to be finishing the season strong. Over his last 7 starts an ERA under 3.00, 49 Strikeouts vs 8 Walks in 46.2 innings. Certainly an upgrade over Eflin or Morton or even Sugano
Counting on Rodriguez is fools gold. They should go into the season with at least 6 starting pitchers. I think Suarez is done too. Father Time is undefeated.
I think more of having those two be the 5th spot and depth. Rogers and Bradish are a lock. I think we all still believe in Grod, lol. Id like to see Wells back in the pen. Then need to sign or trade for another 2 type. Expecting the Os to all the sudden compete for the top free agents isn’t happening
@gor
I agree with you, my original reply was just disagreeing with the OP that Rogers and Bradish somehow weren’t #1 types. that’s a very pessimistic take even if you include regression to the mean.
but as the OP then threw out Sandy and Gallen’s names as examples of the #1s the Os should sign… seems to undermine his argument bc both (even with Sandy’s better recent stretch and pre-TJ self) are no where near clear better candidates for #1 as Bradish and Rogers.
I think they need even better options. i’d be happy with Sandy as kind of a Rodriguez type (ceiling #1, floor #5). well, maybe Rodriguez is a floor TJ candidate.
i wish we would have signed Nick Privetta (even w his injury). Michael King could be a 4/5 bulk guy. heck, get John Means back and bring the volume arms too.
gorav
I’ll state for the record I stopped believing in G-Rod this spring. Put him in the bullpen if he’s upright.
I’d love to have him on the 2026 Tigers. With their pitcher-friendly ballpark, I think he’d have better numbers than in BAL. And he would not break the bank.
Sugano had a 2.72 ERA in his first 8 starts with questionable peripherals even then. The league was getting a book on him. Since then, he’s been Cade Povich with a 5+ ERA, except he doesn’t strike as many guys out and gives up too many HR.
Povich is not an MLB caliber starter. Sugano is not either, unless you get him a big ballpark to keep some of those dingers in. Plus he’ll be a year older.
The Orioles already have Kremer as a back end innings eater, and if they’re going to be competitive, need to shop for two #1/#2 type guys to add to Bradish, Rogers, and Kremer, pushing Wells to the bullpen with Rodriguez (if he pitches at all).
No reason for them to throw more money plus the $13M for another year of below average starts. No thanks, they have to aim significantly higher to compete.
People tend to evaluate all pitchers against ace standards but the reality is every team needs a couple of guys that can eat innings and strive for a 4 ERA. Sugano can be that guy and he on occasion he has a great night.
The challenge is he really struggles against the better offenses so it will be interesting to see if he can adjust his pitch mixes to keep them a bit more off stride.
tuck-
Kremer has become the “veteran innings eater”, given he’s the only O with 4 straight seasons of 100+ IP, as hot and cold as he is.
I think they need to shoot a little higher, maybe the Zach Littel level for a 3-4 pitcher. He’s given up more HR than Sugano, but over 186 IP, has better #’s all around, and is turning 30, not 38.
I’ll maintain to come into 2026 as favorites they need 2x a 1-2 level starter. Getting 1 and a Littel type would look good but if one goes down, they could have Wells as a swingman first up but after that, quickly into the Povich-level.
36 not 38, yes. Was thinking of Gibson the other elderly has-been they got out of desperation in April.