December 4th: The Reds officially announced the Pagán signing today.
December 3rd: The Reds are reportedly bringing back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the Ballengee Group client to opt out after next season. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count will climb to 39 once the signing is finalized.
Pagán returns on another two-year deal after one of the best seasons of his career. The Reds surprisingly signed him to a $16MM contract over the 2023-24 offseason. There was obvious risk in adding a fly-ball pitcher to work in high-leverage spots at one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly parks. Pagán didn’t post great numbers and missed a couple months with a lat injury in 2024, so he had an easy call to bypass an opt-out and return to Cincinnati.
This year went a lot more smoothly. Pagán took over the closer role from Alexis Díaz and recorded a career-high 32 saves. He did blow six save chances but had a strong season overall, pitching to a 2.88 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings. He punched out 30% of opponents against a solid 8.1% walk rate. Pagán avoided any injuries and pitched well against left- and right-handed batters alike. He got swinging strikes at a strong 14.6% clip while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball.
Pagán has always had an elite strikeout and walk profile. He hasn’t had the year-by-year consistency of the sport’s best closers, though. The fly-ball approach still leaves him vulnerable to the home run ball. Pagán has only had one season in his nine-year career in which he has allowed fewer home runs than the average reliever. He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.
The longball is always going to be an issue, but Pagán sticking around as a high-leverage reliever despite the homers is a testament to his effectiveness in other areas. He’s a reliable control artist with above-average velocity. His splitter gives him an option to attack opposite-handed hitters, while he mixes in a cutter as his main offspeed pitch versus righty batters. Pagán has generally been durable outside of the aforementioned lat strain. He has topped 50 innings in every other full schedule of his career, including six years with 60+ frames.
Pagán’s strong walk year earns him a nice contract for his age 35-36 seasons. The guarantee narrowly beats our two-year, $16MM prediction. Pagán also gets the upside of the out clause, which allows him to get back to free agency if he has an equally strong ’26 season. Another two-year deal at age 36 would be rare but not unprecedented, so it’s not out of the question that he pitches well enough to consider that route.
Assuming Terry Francona slots Pagán back in the ninth inning, he’ll pitch behind a solid setup group that includes Tony Santillan, Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati should add a left-hander at some point. The only southpaw who’d be in their bullpen at the moment is Sam Moll, who was up and down from Triple-A Louisville throughout the year.
Cincinnati has $32.275MM in guaranteed contracts to six players: Pagán, Hunter Greene, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt, and Moll. They owe $15MM in dead money ($12MM salary and a $3MM option buyout payable after the World Series) to Jeimer Candelario. Cincinnati has a sizable arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $45MM. They’d owe another $8-10MM in minimum salary players, which puts their current commitments in the $100-105MM range. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said he expects payroll to be around the $116MM at which they opened the 2025 season.
That’d leave them with roughly $15-20MM to spend. They’re in the market for an impact bat and reportedly trying to bring Kyle Schwarber back to the Cincinnati area. That would surely cost more than $20MM annually. It’s possible ownership would make an exception for someone like Schwarber or Pete Alonso. The front office could also look to trade a player or two from the arbitration class to free up more spending capacity if they feel they’ve got a strong chance to sign an elite hitter.
Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported that the Reds and Pagán had reached a two-year, $20MM deal with an out. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.
Certainly solidifies their pen. Pagan, Santillan, Ashcraft isn’t terrible, but they could stand to make another addition or two. Shawn Armstrong? Brad Keller?
He’s given up a borderline obscene number of HRs in his career.
But he’s been a reliable closer for them this past year.
Actually he has been a better closer than he was a setup guy in Cincinnati. Some guys just need that end of game adrenaline.
But much better the past 3 years, Pretty close to league average.
They need a couple more left handed bullpen pitchers unless they plan to covert Brandon Williamson or Lodolo to relief pitchers.
What they really need though is for ownership to add another $15 million to the payroll budget and sign schwarber at the winter meetings.
Even with another 15M$ on top of whatever is left I don’t think they have the payroll to add Kyle.
I agree unless they get creative or backload a deal with Kyle. With the Pagan signing and the projected arbitration guys the Reds are setting at around 100k with a projected payroll of $115k or $120k. Trading Singer is an option, which would clear about 12M.
By my calculations they are sitting at $102 million payroll including the $15 million we have to pay Candelario. The high end of schwarber projection is $30 million per year for 5 years and the low end $25 million for 4. Probably going to be somewhere in between of $30 million for 4 or $26 million for 5.
If we could up that payroll from last years $115 million to $130 million we could make it work and have one more roster spot left on the 40 man. If we stick to the $115 million it is Ryan O’Hearn.
Read something this morning talking about how schwarber being local would increase ticket sales. I am not local per se as I live in central KY and I already have a ticket package so I am going to the same amount of games as last year no matter. If I didn’t have a package and live in central KY like I do or southern Indiana I would definitely go to more games than normal but not because Schwarber is from Middletown but because he is a perfect fit for what the reds need and they would have a chance to be a special team.
I have been a reds fan since the machine days as a kid so basically the entirety of the free agent era. Never before have the reds been on the verge of being good and a free agent more suitable to fill that one need be available as the match with Schwarber now.
The article i read this morning mentioned teoscar hernendez and other free agents the reds have passed on. Taking defense into consideration hernendez might be more valuable but all we lack to be a very good team next year is left handed power and no better free agent last 10 years for strictly left handed power than Schwarber. Our 3 players with the most home runs last year EDLC 22, Steer 21 and Stephenson 13 are either right handed or switch and Schwarber had as many home runs from the left as those 3 combined.
Lodolo is their best SP. Luis Mey needs to put it together this season.
I’d like to see De La Cruz in LF and McClain at SS. Sal Stewart at 2B. A position change might spark McClain at the plate.
McLain at short and Elly at third when he first came up was a good combo defensively actually. Elly played a nice third and McLain was a solid shortstop.
I agree Elly should be in the outfield, it might happen when Arroyo is ready for the bigs.
Assuming Stewart can adjust to the office figuring him out, he needs to play every day. Really he does regardless to learn. I don’t want him getting the Hinds treatment.
Why would you put Elly in LF? He’s a center fielder all day with that speed and arm. If Elly moves to the OF Friedl will move to a corner spot. No way they waste that arm in LF.
Agreed. I have said for some time he reminds me of Eric Davis as far as build and tools.
Pagan has good years and awful ones. Decent deal but should expect to have one good season and one of negative WAR
Ironically, Pagan used to be a Friar
And not a good one
He’s no Angel Pagan.
He’s no stranger to the dark…
Let him rock your cradle….
A team with their limited budget shouldn’t be spending $10 million a year on an older reliever with his up-and-down history, coming off his second best season.
Why not? Their only clear path to the 2026 post season is through their great rotation. Supporting the SP with an experienced closer is well spent money. No doubt Krall consulted DJ before he made this move, and as for analyzing pitchers- Derek is top shelf. This is a low risk investment. Now they need a LH setup pitcher as well as an experienced swing man.
I like the move although I think they might be done as far as pitching. I agree they could use 2 more lefties in the pen as they only have one on the 40 man roster. Remember Brandon Williamson from 2 years ago? He or lodolo could be the high leverage left handed pen arm and really wouldn’t hurt our starting rotation much. The other left handed pen pitcher wouldn’t be high leverage and someone we could sign to a minor league deal.
Signing Pagán was an easy decision and the easy part. Now we need that big left handed 50 home run thumper in the middle of the lineup to shore up the offense and take our team slugging % from 22nd of 30 teams last year to top 5% in 2026. Would be good as well if it were someone local. Wish there was some free agent out there like that.
Another closer down!
5/11 on that contest thanks to this guy right here.
Leaders are at 8/11 which is pretty darn good.
Good job! This might be my first one, gotta go check lol
@WadeBoggsWildRide
Yeah, I’m sitting at 4/11. with this signing…
Made 5/11 for me – woohoo page 2!
Thanks to all for reporting your contest standing. Of course, if anyone actually cares they could just go to the site and check for themselves. Gold star for all your foreheads!
Let’s all give a round of applause to symeedone, whose posts are relevant and helpful 100% of the time!
And he doesn’t have any right yet!
@stymeedone
I appreciate the gold star. But I think you deserve one too for being so special.
Name checks out
Bitter much?
Pagan might not have a typical decision on that opt out at season’s end, heading into a potential lockout.
Solid signing. Seems the team and player both like the situation.
Now sign Kyle Schwarber, come on already!
Schwarber and Andujar and it’ll be a good offseason.
I would settle for just Schwarber. We have one roster spot left and need to make that work.
Let’s just hope there is not a 78th F-Bomb.
Actually, make that 79.
If thats all they add to the lineup then its a simple approach; walk Schwarber and let him stand on first base. You think pitchers are going to look at that lineup and say “yea, lets give schwarber a fastball” Spending 30 million on a .230 hitter who strikes out 200 times a year and doesnt play defense? As Reds fans we want to be competitive so bad that we have been blinded by this regime. This is the same GM that gave Candelario 45 million guaranteed.
So what do you recommend? What would make us better. We can’t get any better with starting pitching. We could still improve the bullpen but I think with another decent left handed option (Brandon Williamson) we have at least a better than average pen. We have several average or a little better than average right handed hitters with steer, Stevenson, maybe Marte and maybe Stewart that would bat 5 thru 7. We have an electric talent in EDLC who is still young enough to improve quite a bit. Of all the leadoff type hitters on the free agent market none seem as good as Friedl.
What I see we don’t have is left handed power or power at all for that matter. We were 22nd in slugging % last year of 30 teams. Yes Schwarber could decline by such a way next year that he is as bad as Candelario but he has a lot more history on his side that says he won’t.
More than likely one of either Friedl, Marte or EDLC at least one will be on base and maybe 2 by the time schwarber comes up. Doubt teams will want to add another base runner if 2 of those guys are on. On base is the one other thing other than raw power Schwarber is good at and getting on base is not getting an out which not getting out is the most important thing a player can do.
I am open to whatever suggestions you might have that would improve us. I can be persuaded but I just don’t see much else we need other than left handed power and Schwarber is the best free agent at just that in the last 20 years.
So it’s really a one year deal. Still glad to see him back. Makes the backend look better. They still need a lefty though.
Unless he sucks. Then he ain’t optn out
Brandon Williamson could go to the pen as a lefty and maybe sign another left reliever to a minor league deal.
Glad Reds were able to retain him. Now let’s go get Schwarbs!
Glad he’s back but for every dollar that goes towards pitching, which has been all of it so far, that’s less that will go towards the offense because Bob is ‘broke.’ C’mon Bob I swear the fans will give you your money back and then some if you just give this team what it needs.
Better use of resources to sign a closer. Reds still need a LH set-up reliever and maybe Jakob Junis,
Remember Brandon Williamson? He could go into a LH set up role. As most on this forum I think with the one roster spot remaining sign Schwarber in the next few weeks and call it a hot stove season.
Williamson still has a chance to develop into a good starting pitcher and may want to continue that quest. Starters make a lot more money than relievers and that’s a lot of incentive. But this rotation will be difficult to crack and he may decide a transition to the pen is his fastest way back. I think he could be a fine high leverage lefty out there. We will see what happens.
It looks like it’s shaping up that with only one left handed bullpen arm on the 40 roster he will go to the pen and I am good with that. He would be league minimum and late inning role. As you said he wouldn’t be part of a 5 man rotation currently and triple a depth as a starter.
Seems like with one roster spot left he would go to the pen and then the bullpen and rotation is set and the league minimum salary would have the remaining resources for a left handed power bat free agent of one is available especially a local one.
I gotta start picking more teams to re sign their guys! lol. Had him to the Marlins. 3/11 now, yeesh!
That said, Pagan was solid last year. My fantasy team was thankful. I grabbed him as the season started and he held on throughout the year. Deserved payday.
This is a good signing considering Williams got $17 million a year for 3 years. We can move Williamson to the bullpen and sign another left handed relief pitcher to a minor league deal. Do that and sign Schwarber at the winter meetings and win the hot stove season.
Another ex-Twins reliever that goes on to find success somewhere else.
Solid.. although I have to say, throughout the season last year I had more confidence in Martinez..
Nick?
Yes…
It didn’t feel like he ever found his groove, at least not like he did in 24
Seems like he should have gotten more from somebody. The Reds can’t be the only team that could use even a marginal closer.
You said it, he’s marginal. He got marginal-closer money.
I am actually happy with this deal. I am also surprised he didn’t get more money and an extra year.
Flip his baseball card over and youll see why. Show me 2 good years in a row and he will be 36 at the end of this deal. Krall always gives an opt out that benefits the player and not the team. Its his go-to move for some stupid reason.
The age is a little tricky for a 2 year deal. One year $10 million would have been a real bargain for the reds though. Raseal iglaseas at 34 got $14 million for one year and he also never has 2 consecutive good years. Devin Williams younger and had been consistently good until last year but was horrible with a close to 5 era and got 3 years at $17 million per coming off that.
The market is what it is and we needed one more late inning pitcher. The only other one that might go cheaper is Pete Fairbanks and we will see what he signs but I doubt he signs for less than $9 million a year for 2 years.
I’m not big on Pagan but he did have a really good year in a hitters park. So this deal seems pretty reasonable.
Reds gotta be all in on Murakami or at the least Okamoto
“He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.” Out of how many? Can’t be a big sample size. That equates to about 2 more a year – no biggie.
25 percent of his hits over the last 4 years have been home runs. The only reason he gets away with it is he walks no one. 4 to 1 k to bb ratio helps.
Good move. Even if Pagan falters a little it feels like Santillan is ready to step in the closers role.
Seems to me another blunder reminiscent of giving Nick Martinez a QO. $10 MM per year for 2 for a closer in a small market town seems outlandish. I’d rather use the $’s on a hitter and develop my own closer still pre-arb.
They don’t have anybody that could be a closer. Maybe Santillan but as a Reds fan I would say no. He is a setup man. Ashcraft isn’t either. He is a 6th or 7th inning guy at best. Phillips still has his wildness to him. Everybody else is a project.
They could have done with TS as closer but would still need another late inning high leverage pen arm. Considering what Williams and iglaseas got they are basically paying Pagán as a late inning high leverage but not closer. Only other thing that might have saved a little money is to see what Pete Fairbanks would have signed for. Maybe we tried and not as cheap but we will know when Fairbanks signs if we could have gotten him cheaper.
I’m good with this. All the hype around Schwarber, not sure I want a guy who whiffs 200 times and will maybe bat his weight.
Solidifying the bullpen is necessary. I’d rather make a trade, use some prospects to get a bat or grab Alonso, which is probably better anyway. But who am I….just another armchair GM.
I am 57 so date back to the pre free agent era. Never have the reds had such a glaring need and a free agent available to fill that need as Schwarber is now. We have good starting pitching, speed on the bases, now a decent enough bullpen, a budding superstar in EDLC and a good leadoff hitter (Friedl was top 11 in on base last season). We have enough mediocre power guys that hit right handed like steer, Stephenson and Stewart to have power from the right hand side of the plate. The only thing we lack to be a very good team is left handed power. No free agent in the last 10 years has been better with strictly left handed power than Schwarber.
Ohtani makes $50 million a year Think about it this….we have Greene a better pitcher than Ohtani for $8 million next year or even Abbott as good of a left handed pitcher as Ohtani for league minimum. Schwarber would give us more power from the left hand side than Ohtani and for $25 to $30 million, friedl gets on base as well as Ohtani for $4 or $5 million. Combined we would have that unicorn cheaper and with different players which is better (Friedl get on base and schwarber drive them both in instead of a solo shot by Ohtani). We could be competitive with the dodgers rather than just hoping to make the playoffs as a wild card.
Steve Adams wya? I’m starting the Emilio Pagan: All-Star Hype Train now!
Signing Pagan is fine as long as they also sign a higher end closer type, Pete Fairbanks maybe?
They really need a high leverage lefty. Moll doesn’t cut it.
Depending on his health, that could be Williamson. But I agree, they still need one more lefty out of the pen. They could bring Suter back at a relatively low cost.
I agree with Williamson in the pen. He is a better than average starting pitcher but no room for him in our rotation. Instead of having him start the season in triple A let him have a bullpen role. As for sutter not sure why they didn’t pick up his relatively cheap option anyway but they didn’t. I figure with him moll & Williamson they could find another lefty on a minor league deal and spend the rest of what’s left on Schwarber.
Good signing. Good numbers, and $10M is the lowest you get a real closer for.
With Devin Williams getting $17 million per for 3 years and iglaseas $14 million for a year it’s a very good deal. Pete Fairbanks who the rays just cut might go cheaper than Pagán but not by much if he does.
Are they going to be good enough to where a decent closer matters? Oh wait, they’re in the central, so YES:)
My MLBtr free agent competition boasts yet another false prediction.
That still feels like good work. Or am I off on that?
Hopefully this isn’t it and the only splash at the winter meetings isn’t that guy who they show on MLB Network falling into the pond every year.