Free agency won’t officially begin until five days after the conclusion of the World Series, but teams are already well into the process of making their plans for the coming offseason. For many teams, that will include pursuits of some of the winter’s top free agent talent. While Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker is widely viewed as the top hitter headed into free agency this November, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported a connection between Chicago and one of the winter’s top pitchers: right-hander Dylan Cease. Levine reports that the Cubs are viewed as a potential top suitor for Cease and that he will be pursued by the North Siders this winter.
Cease has significant ties both to the city of Chicago and the Cubs organization as a whole. Drafted by the Cubs in the sixth-round of the 2014 draft, Cease developed into a top-100 prospect in the Cubs organization before being traded alongside Eloy Jimenez in the crosstown deal that brought Jose Quintana to Chicago prior to the 2017 trade deadine. While neither Jimenez nor Quintana quite lived up to expectations during their stints with their new clubs, Cease turned into the sort of top-of-the-rotation arm the White Sox were surely dreaming of when they made the trade. He was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award with the South Siders in 2022 in his age-26 season and was traded to the Padres just before the start of the 2024 campaign for a package headlined by top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe.
2024 saw Cease put together another ace-level campaign as he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts while striking out 29.4% of his opponents. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young award voting and even garnered some down-ballot MVP consideration. That seemed to set up Cease up for a major payday in free agency as long as he could keep it up in 2025, but he stumbled this year with a rather pedestrian 4.55 ERA in 168 innings of work. Cease’s peripherals were a good deal better than his results suggested, but a tough 2025 season creates a pattern of inconsistency that might worry some suitors after a similarly pedestrian 2023.
Cease might lack the sort of year-to-year consistency many clubs look for when searching for an ace to carry their pitching staff, but it’s still easy to see why he would be attractive to teams. The right-hander has been one of the game’s most durable arms in recent years, and his peripherals have remained far more consistent than his actual results. He’s struck out at least 200 batters in five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts and a 165 innings in each of those seasons. While his ERA has fluctuated between 2.20 and 4.58 across those five seasons, his FIP (between 3.10 and 3.72) and SIERA (between 3.46 and 4.10) have been far more stable. While Cease’s 3.72 ERA ranks 29th among starters with at least 500 innings of work since 2021, his FIP (12th), SIERA (22nd), and xERA (11th) all rank more favorably.
Perhaps most importantly for the Cubs specifically, Cease throws hard and racks up strikeouts. His strikeout rate ranks 3rd in that aforementioned group, behind only Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. His fastball velocity, likewise, ranks third behind Cole and Sandy Alcantara in that same group. Cease actually threw harder than his career average this year with a 97.1 mph fastball velocity. That was good for sixth among qualified starters this season, and his strikeout rate trailed on Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. For a Cubs rotation that had the third-lowest fastball velocity in the majors at just 93.1 and put together a pedestrian 20.5% strikeout rate, Cease would be the sort of power pitcher a generally soft-tossing Cubs rotation could really benefit from.
As good of a fit for the Cubs as Cease might seem to be on paper, that shouldn’t be taken to mean a deal is necessarily likely to get done. Cease will have plenty of suitors as one of the top starters on the market, and big spenders like the Mets are known to be in the market for rotation help this winter. Cease’s familiarity with the Cubs organization and the city of Chicago is unlikely to give the Cubs a significant leg up considering that Cease is a client of the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras’s clients aren’t known for affording much of a hometown discount in free agency.
The Cubs haven’t spent at the top of the free agent market very often in recent years. Since signing Jon Lester and Jason Heyward in back-to-back offseasons in 2014 and ’15, the Cubs have signed just two players to deals worth $100MM or more: Yu Darvish, who was famously traded to the Padres halfway through his six-year, $126MM pact with Chicago, and Dansby Swanson. Cease will surely be seeking a contract worth at least that much, and it’s unclear if the Cubs would be willing to go out of their comfort zone to land him.
Another factor could be the Qualifying Offer, as the Cubs have generally been reluctant to sign qualified free agents. Swanson is the only free agent Chicago has signed with a QO attached outside of re-signing their own players since they signed John Lackey to a two-year deal in December of 2015. Even if the Cubs aren’t interested in playing at the top of the market, it’s at least possible that they would circle back to Cease later this offseason if his market doesn’t materialize, as they did with Cody Bellinger during the 2023-24 offseason and attempted to do with Alex Bregman last winter.
It’s also worth wondering whether adding a starting pitcher will be the team’s top priority this winter to begin with. Whether they pursue a reunion with Tucker or not, targeting a bat in free agency could make some sense given that the club’s internal options to replace him in the lineup would be unproven prospects Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara. The bullpen might also be a priority given that every high leverage reliever from this year’s relief corps except Daniel Palencia is scheduled to hit free agency this winter.
Of course, starting pitching could become a larger priority for the club in a hurry depending on how the option decisions between the club and southpaw Shota Imanaga play out in the coming days. Imanaga departing for free agency would create some urgency to replace him in the rotation, while him remaining in the fold alongside Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton with Justin Steele expected back from surgery in the first half of next season could be enough rotation talent to convince the Cubs to prioritize improving other areas of the roster. Colin Rea’s bargain $6MM club option for 2025 is likely to be picked up, and he’ll join Javier Assad as quality depth for the Cubs rotation headed into next year beyond their on-paper starting five.
I just don’t get it…this guy throws meatballs. Not sure why anyone would want him unless to eat innings.
The past 3723 batters he’s faced have hit .220/.301/.360 off him while striking out just under 30% of the time (3rd best in MLB).
Don’t worry the Cubs will shop in the next tier. Cease will require money and a commitment. Whoever will sign for 2-4 years that was good in 2023 will be their top target.
He was a replacement level pitcher in 2025. -4 RAA. -.3 WAA. 4.88 runs per 9. I stand by my analysis…guy throws meatballs.
High ceiling, low floor.
The pitcher with the most games started and the most strikeouts over the past 5 years has a low floor?
His 33.4 whiff% in 2025 was the best in all of baseball. Logan Gilbert was 2nd at 32.9% and Tarik Skubal was 3rd at 32.5%.
This article, and observations like this from padrepapi, illustrate the fact that statistics-obsessed baseball fans can always find some number somewhere to support their preconceived conclusions. And of course the statistic they cite is ALWAYS the most important one, they believe. So tell me, which counts more—his whiff rate, his ERA, his FIP, games started, strikeouts. . . and on and on and on, ad infinitum.
Stat lines never tell the story.
To be fair, knowing how hitters fare off a pitcher seem to be pretty straight forward. If those same batters swing and miss against the pitcher more than anyone else (at least in 2025) that seems to clearly point that their stuff is good.
And if a pitcher starts more games than anyone else that says unbiasedly, he’s been healthy. Striking out more guys than anyone else ties in the health and quality of stuff components.
You are spot on that if you’re a numbers dork, baseball is one hellofa catnip.
True–but worth the risk for the Cubs, whose pitchers all have low ceilings.
Low ceiling high attic
A low floor is not a guy who starts 30-32 games with an ERA+ around 95-100 and 200+ K’s.
They have an entire rotation of finesse arms and need a power pitcher to go with Horton.
He also walks a ton. Outside of his k’s, He’s very over rated. Typical cubs move if they sign him. As a brewers fan I’d expect nothing less.. smh lol
Plus the way he pitches, he’s due for an elbow injury
To tangerine pony:
Spot on, both your comments. Cease has definite location issues. Leading to high pitch counts. He cannot be relied on to get past 5 innings.
Plus he’s a ‘max effort type’, and not a big guy. Basically it wouldn’t surprise me if he breaks down before his next contract ends.
There are much better SP options this offseason for the Cubs to pursue.
Don’t get me wrong he isn’t a perfect pitcher
However, when he is at his best he can pitch cy young numbers and he has been extremely durable
Funny how he and Freddy Peralta have both walked 3.4/9 these past two seasons.
Whether it would be a good move or a bad one, pony, it definitely isn’t a *typical* Cubs move, for reasons outlined in the article.
As a Cubs fan, I’d expect nothing more from you.
tangerinepony it sounds like you’re talking about another free agent, the one the Brewers will lose (like usual). Peralta.
In my opinion, if he brought his K rate down, he could throw more innings. He strikes out a ton of guys.
Overall he was good with the Padres, we wish him the best.
My concern isn’t meatballs. It is that Cease is a very hard thrower with lots of innings on his arm. I’d be worried about a breakdown.
Unless you’re a fan of a team that is cheap. What team doesn’t try for Cease.
These rumors never Cease!!!
Cubs aren’t getting Cease. They’re too cautious and cheap.
The Cubs definitely need a starting pitcher with velocity. Cease may come to them on an affordable contract with an out. Whoever Hoyer signs he must be a top of a rotation pitcher.
Cease was always a bit confusing. He got strikeouts, but he seemed to panic once people got on base and would have a really tough time. The win-loss record was bad, that’s partly on him and partly on the Padres inability to score runs.
Looks like the friars are going to not pursuit at all especially since they also have king and pivetta situations
Tucker widely viewed as the top free agent hitter????
Lmao
I’ll take 3 guys with the same alpha-last name over Tucker alone ie: Bo, Cory & Alex. All day everyday and twice on Sunday.
Alonso easily. And even Schwarber and Suarez.
Last 3 year average
Tucker: .270 23 76
Suarez: .240 35 105
.30 of batting average for 40% more counting stats???? Easily, and even more premium of positions.
Tucker is a nice lil player. But I don’t think I’ve seen a player more overrated at least in the last few years.
@CJ: Agree about Tucker. For a guy who was supposed to be a difference-making slugger–well, he walked a lot.
Part of the reason he is so overrated is that some pretentious armchair GMs here have too much regard for analytics and a kind of disdain for counting stats; to them, it’s almost a mark *against* a player that he drives in a lot of runs. Things have gotten that silly.
Another part of the reason is that Tucker is a great actor. He has perfected the art of presenting himself like a superstar–strutting up to the plate with his snub nose up in the air, then assuming a textbook sort of stance (before lunging or bailing when the pitch is thrown). He LOOKS the part of a hitter, and that fools some people into thinking that he is one.
Analytics is like gravity. It does require you to understand or believe in it in order to work.
bronyaur1, is there a “not” missing from your comment?
You’d take the guy with the career 112 OPS+ (Suarez) over the one with the 140 (Tucker)? It’s too bad you’re not the GM of my least favorite team.
@gbs: Tucker apparently used to be better than he is now, yes, but he’s not very good now, and now (and going forward) is what matters. He might be a little better again for some other team–playing half his games in an indoor bandbox, or in a stadium where the weather is always good–but he would not be good for the Cubs. So they would do best to let him go, and spend the money otherwise.
I would take Schwarber over anyone out there.
Im hoping the Tigers pony up for him, and maybe another bat for CF like Bellinger, but definitely Schwarber. The dude can hit and they say he is a great clubhouse leader. He fits almost any team who could cram him in at DH.
That’s why I’m hoping all this talk of trading Skubal is just talk. Why rebuild to this great talent level just to tear it down? One or 2 additional pieces and viola. Right back at it.
The thing that is skewing about Tucker that no one talks about is the fact that the Astros played in a Dome. That ballpark is not Wrigley. Sister Wrigley is a fickle beach. So all this voluminous wow hitting stats are half Dome like “lab created” as compared to some hitters who have a variety of ballpark backgrounds in their portfolio. I’m not deflating his great talent. I am just saying he is not acres ahead of the rest.
BurnerK,
How many first-time FAs “have a variety of ballpark backgrounds in their portfolio?” many of them have played with only one team, and every player plays half their games on the road. Also, a ballpark like Wrigley helps sometimes and hinders other times, so overall it’s probably close to a wash.
Not so, gbs. WF is very cold until mid-June, which is half the season nowadays, and the wind blows in two-thirds of the time overall. It has become almost like Candlestick used to be. Tucker was visibly uncomfortable there.
Tucker’s career splits while he was an Astro (2018-2024):
Home: .275/.353/.513 (139 wRC+)
Away: .274/.354/.520 (138 wRC+)
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
He’s an AL West player. If you separate his stats in AL West parks from all other parks, you’ll see a significant difference.
I went and did the math to see how he faired at those non home AL West ballparks (LAA, TEX, HOU,SEA).
He hit .261/.335/.517
I should have just looked at his tOPS+ where 100 would be the usual for the player and not wasted the time:
LAA – 113
TEX – 119
SEA – 84
OAK – 59
No one talks about it, Burner? I’ve been talking about it all season, and taken a lot of flak for doing do from folks like gbs, who seem somehow to have an emotional investment in Tucker. But I’m glad that you see it too, and you expressed (part of) the problem with Tucker very well.
The other part of the problem is his swing. That part was obvious in Game 5 of the NLDS, snd in many other games too.
Alan, I’m not going to do all the work to verify or discredit your assertion he’s “an AL West player” because I’m not as emotionally invested in Tucker as you seem to think. I’d argue your comments about how he acts, struts, etc. demonstrate the greater emotional investment.
Here are some non-Triple Crown numbers for Tucker and Suarez over the last three seasons:
Tucker: .380 OBP, .511 SLG, 150 OPS+, 66 SB, 14.7 WAR
*Suarez: .313 OBP, .462 SLG, 115 OPS+ 8 SB, 9.1 WAR
(*B-Ref wasn’t working well, so I just averaged Suarez last 3 seasons’ percentages, so they could be off 2-3 points.)
I’m guessing you don’t give much credence to these stats besides SB.
Tucker might be slightly overrated based on prior years, but he’s still very good and clearly better the Suarez, not to mention 5-1/2 years younger.
My cold, dispassionate analytical mind has done all the work I’m interested in doing in this discussion.
Good idea–but not if Boras makes them wait until February or March to see if they can get him. The Cubs cannot afford to let their off-season be delayed by any player or agent.
The Boras factor is always concerning. All in all it might be interesting to see Hottovy and the Cubs pitching staff work on Cease and see if they can make him even better. With the Cubs defense he’s better just walking into the building. I try to temper expectations whenever I hear Boras name especially since he plays Jed like a violin.
I feel like the Cubs and Boras have a symbiotic relationship where they do each other little favors from time to time. Cubs help Boras drive up price for his clients by feigning interest, and Boras gives the Cubs “circle back” priority for certain players if their market doesn’t materialize. Obviously, it doesn’t always work that way, but it seems too convenient at times.
Would be a good start for the reload. Cubs solid defense always pitchers best friend.
Based on recent history, I’m nothing but skeptical about the sincere effort of the Cubs FO to sign a TOR pitcher- or any all-star caliber player. I’d like to think the Tucker trade signaled a new approach, and a true goal of situating themselves as one of MLB’s premier teams on a yearly basis, but that trade was about giving up players that had little value to the Cubs in the short-term, and possibly the long-term, too. Signing a top free agent is all about money, and I haven’t seen anything from the Ricketts that makes me confident they’re willing to step up and be real.
I would love to be proven wrong. I would love for the Cubs to finally behave like a top tier, big city team. But Dansby Swanson is referenced as a recent big free agent signing, and the truth is that he was viewed as the third-best shortstop available that year. And if the Cubs continue the trend of signing third best and rounding things out with some that’ll-do signings, then the Cubs will continue hovering at the fringes.
I am so tired of this Cubs skepticism, but the team has cultivated that in its fan base for decades. 2025 was fun. Cubs fans deserve so much more of that.
It’s easy to be a skeptic. When Rickets extended Hoyer it convinced me that winning isn’t as important as convincing Cubs fans to fill the seats.
Winning fills seats better than any other strategy other than a new stadium.
Pickup him and King
Every team is a good fit for Cease, as long as they’re trying to contend. He will undoubtedly get the contract he deserves, in the 4-6 year range.
Strengths: Most Durable SP in MLB, good in even year seasons, Good teammate
Weaknesses: Consistently Inefficient with high pitch counts early even in good years/that’s not changing, meh odd year seasons, bad against patient lineups
*Someone will pay 9 figures for someone you don’t trust if in playoffs and hope he eats innings to help get you there in reg season grind.
5 years, $115 million
Will be closer to 5/$165
Every team that can afford him(which is everyone actually) should be in on this guy. He’s durable and K’s a lot of guys.
This silly notion that he’ll be overpriced for certain teams is ludicrous. From revenue sharing and what not, every team has at least $180mil to spend on payroll.
.Deconstructing the Ricketts “Break-Even” Model
Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts has publicly stated that the franchise’s core operating goal is to “try to break even every year”. This assertion has often fueled fan and media frustration during periods of perceived payroll stagnation and suggests an incompatibility with the aggressive pursuit of top players.
However, a comprehensive analysis of modern franchise finance reveals that the “break-even” claim is incompatible with the operational reality of major professional sports ownership. The ultimate financial success for ownership in an organization valued in the billions like the.Cubs does not stem from marginal annual operating profits shown on the P&L statement, but from the immense, generational appreciation of the franchise as a unique, premium asset.
In reality, the Ricketts family’s financial strategy utilizes the Chicago Cubs organization and the associated Wrigleyville real estate holdings as a sophisticated mechanism for overall wealth optimization. Analysis indicates that business losses generated by team operations and significant, ongoing capital expenses related to stadium and neighborhood developments are strategically employed to offset massive capital gains derived from other family assets, such as the sale of TD Ameritrade shares.
This structure confirms that the team’s annual cash flow performance is secondary to its role as a key component in the family’s long-term wealth preservation and tax optimization strategy. This prioritization of asset appreciation was necessary from the outset, given that the Ricketts’ acquisition of the team was a highly leveraged transaction requiring a complex financial structure dictated by the selling entity, the Tribune Company. Those days are over as this off season will show. . The Cubs will bring the force of its ample financial power to bear in its pursuit of talent.
The fact that private equity groups are badly wanting in on the pro sports ownership gig is all the proof we need that the ‘bottom line” of owning a sports franchise isn’t anywhere close to the bottom line team owners use to measure profitability, revenue generation, and wealth maximization.
Exactly correct.
So you’re saying the Padres should have given up on making the playoffs?
In hindsight sure. Based off 2024 a team like the padres who were close should have kept them both. They were literally the type of team that would want to good pitchers on the final year of their deals. No different than any team that would have traded for them.
They weren’t getting g a 1st for Suarez or Arraez as they won’t be tagged.
After the 2024 season the Padres were coming off their 2nd winningest season in their entire 55 year history. Not to mention they had just set their all-time record in attendance.
A team in their position was supposed to cash in on Cease and King, their two starters who had just finished 4th and 7th, respectively in the CY race?
Robert Saurez won’t be getting a QO. They wouldn’t gamble on him accepting a 22m payday when they have arms in the rotation needing replacing and they have a stacked pen without him. Especially not for an additional pick after the 4th round.
Edwin Diaz would like to have a talk with you about who will be the best closer on the market.
The season didn’t end the way the Padres, their fans, or management hoped. This doom and gloom take ignores that they won 90 games (only the 6th time in their history of doing so), and first time doing so in back to back seasons. Making the playoffs in consecutive years was done for only the 2nd time in franchise history, and first time in 20 years. To top it off they set a new franchise attendance record (and outdrew every team but the Dodgers). In Padreland you chalk that up as not too shabby!
Papi- exactly
They also reportedly listened on both Suarez and cease last offseason and nobody gave them an offer worth more than keeping them.
They won’t tag Arraez for the same reason that they won’t tag Suarez.
Based on your POV only 1 team shouldn’t sell each year.
With that kind of foresight I’d scoot to the nearest Casino, ASAP.
Good luck!
If Saurez is offered a 1/22m payday I’d say there is likely at least a 50% chance he accepts it. From the Padres perspective, you don’t make that decision unless you’re prepared for him to accept.
Him declining nets them a pick that came with a 539k slot value in ’25 (i.e. not much draft capital).
The Padres sold out 72 out of 81 home games. They are literally in the midst of their most successful stretch in team history. Preller has turned the Padres from a 3rd rate team to an atmosphere that is jammed packed with passionate fans.
That matters a whole damn lot more than how foolish it is not making an overpriced QO on a 35 year old reliever when the reward is basically a crumb.
Cease has two great pitches. The issue is he has never really developed a 3rd or a 4th. Most guys like him are pushed to the pen. He has stayed a starter because those two pitches have been so good.
The issue is those two pitches have to be perfect. Over a course of a game players will eventually get to him. Especially when he losses command. Which he usually does for an inning in most of his starts. This leads to high pitch counts and often to why he isn’t going deep into games.
I’ve watched him for two years. He will go out there and dominate for an inning and look like the best pitcher I’ve ever seen. Then in the next inning he looks like a struggling reliever. Anyone that signs him thinking they are getting an ace (dominant guy for 6+ innings most of the time) is fooling themselves.
His true value is in making 30+ starts (reliable). He should get paid a reliable mid rotation starter. Expecting anymore and you will be disappointed. Which btw is still very valuable in baseball.
Sorry ‘led head’. To criticize Hoyer for his pitching decisions, is showing ignorance.
That said, I’d stay far away from Cease – unless it was a short term, very reasonable commitment. Cease definitely has location issues – as well as being a max effort guy, subject to arm problems.
He Gone
Wow. You mean Wicks , Assad and Brown aren’t the answer from the juggernaut farm system?
Always chasing the Brewers and never catching them. Trade for Tucker, sign Cease… keep trying. lol
When was the last time the Brewers won it all bruh?
No matter the cubbies needs, still out of Jed and rickets comfort zone. They’ll take their chances on Jaxson at much lower cost. So typical!
Hopefully Shota Imanaga option is refused !
Foster griffin ? Looks to be another in the line of Jed’s another buy low philosophy instead of going for a top free agent