The Tigers lost a heartbreaker in Game 5 of the ALDS when they fell to the Mariners in 15 innings. Detroit was viewed as one of the best teams — if not the best team — in baseball throughout the first half but slumped to a 34-43 record from the start of July onward. They lost control of the AL Central despite boasting an 11.5-game lead on August 23rd, but they managed to put away the Guardians in the AL Wild Card Series even after ceding the division crown to them just days earlier.
It’s easy to argue that Detroit would not have made it to the postseason at all if not for ace Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and 2025 Cy Young frontrunner. Over the past two seasons, Skubal has posted numbers that few pitchers can hope to match — 387 1/3 innings, 2.30 ERA, 31.2 K%, 4.5 BB% — and he’s been essential to both of Detroit’s runs into the playoffs for the past two years.
Skubal won’t be around forever, however. He’s scheduled to hit free agency during the 2026-27 offseason. With just $28.3MM on the books in guaranteed contracts for 2027 according to RosterResource, one can argue that the Tigers must do whatever it takes to extend Skubal or re-sign him in free agency. An extension doesn’t appear likely, though. If Skubal turns in a season anything like his 2024-25 campaigns, he could justifiably take aim at setting a new record among starting pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM deal with the Dodgers stands as the current mark after narrowly edging out Gerrit Cole’s $324MM deal with the Yankees.
The Tigers have never spent more on a player than they did Miguel Cabrera, who they inked to an eight-year, $248MM extension back in 2014. The Tigers of the past few years haven’t come close to approaching the sort of overall spending they put forward during the 2016-17 seasons, when they carried a payroll in the $200MM range.
Would the Tigers be willing to give out a franchise-record deal to keep their ace? Asked about the matter after his season ended, Skubal himself told the Tigers’ beat that his job is “to go out there and play” and that such conversations are better left to the front office (via The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen). President of baseball operations Scott Harris isn’t tipping his hand publicly one way or another, however.
“Listen, I totally understand the question and understand that you have to ask me,” Harris said at the team’s end-of-season press conference when asked about Skubal’s future (video link, with the Skubal question landing around the 16:00 mark). “I’ve kind of learned over time, especially with this question, that general comments tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives. I can’t comment on our players being traded. I can’t comment on free agents, and I can’t comment on other teams’ players. So, I’m going to respond by just not actually commenting on it. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for a second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher, and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.”
Fans of other clubs are understandably captivated with the idea of seeing their favorite clubs make a run at a Skubal trade. One could argue that if the Tigers don’t believe a long-term deal is possible, they’re better prioritizing long-term health of the organization than employing a win-at-all-costs-in-2026 mentality.
It goes without saying that having Skubal at the front of the team’s rotation would give Detroit its best chance of bringing home a championship next year. In addition to his dominant regular season work, he’s been a menace in the postseason with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and a 37.8% strikeout rate across his six starts. Skubal has not just been essential to the Tigers getting to October over the past two years, but he’s managed to shine when the lights are brightest.
Zooming out to look at the larger Tigers organization reveals that Detroit may not be particularly close to full power yet. Star pitching prospect Jackson Jobe made just ten starts this year before he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery, which is likely to eliminate his entire 2026 campaign. Even setting Jobe aside, the Tigers are bringing along a number of elite prospect talents who figure to make their big league debuts in the next few years. Shortstop Kevin McGonigle is considered one of the sport’s top 10 prospects and should make his way to the majors next year. Outfield prospect Max Clark is also frequently ranked as a top-10 leaguewide prospect, while catcher Josue Briceno and shortstop Bryce Rainer are typically regarded as top-50 talents.
That upcoming crop of youngsters could pair with Jobe and the team’s existing young core to produce a behemoth that competes for years to come. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson are all controlled through 2028, while Reese Olson is controlled through 2029, Dillon Dingler will be in town through 2030 and Colt Keith is locked up through 2032.
Proponents of a trade would argue that Skubal would fetch the sort of high-end talent who can help replace not only Skubal himself but also other key veterans like Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, and Jake Rogers. On the other hand, the Tigers already have a touted farm system and know all too well how uncertain the future of even elite prospects can be.
It wasn’t long ago that Mize and Torkelson were viewed just as highly as McGonigle and Clark are now. They both contributed to the 2025 team, but neither has turned out to be the sort of franchise-defining player the Tigers hoped to be getting when each was drafted with the No. 1 overall pick. Even Skubal battled through four seasons of injuries and mediocrity before coming into form as a superstar last year.
How do MLBTR readers think the Tigers should proceed with Skubal this winter? Should they trade him to load up for the future or should the maximize the 2026 even with no guarantees of signing him long-term? Have your say in the poll below:
This is an easy one. Are you gonna extend him for $400+ Million? If not, you trade him for a haul. How did Coles big money contract work out? DeGrom? Corbin Burnes?
Think if he wasn’t on the team, they would have a much harder time reaching the playoffs. Id say no. If they werent contending, they should trade him for a decent haul
Yup. Was about to say the same. If they are willing to pay the price, and they believe he’ll stay, then keep him. If not, go for the haul.
BTW The Yankees I’m sure are fine with Cole’s contract. They can afford it. Teams signing pitchers to long-term deals accept there could be a TJS or similar in there and they’ll lose a season or so. He’s delivered 20 WAR so far, a Cy Young, a World Series appearance and still will have 2 1/2 years of production in front of him for the Yankees when he returns in May or June next year. deGrom is more difficult since he got injured right out of the gate, has never pitched in the postseason for the Rangers. He did have an excellent 2025 and could deliver two strong more years, or they can trade him if they want to pay down the deal. The Yankees would re-sign Cole knowing what they know. The Rangers likely don’t with deGrom. I suspect they’d like to move him, while the Yankees will be happy with Cole’s return.
We’ll have to wait until the end of the deals for a final verdict. I will say that if the Tigers are in a win-now mode and they think they can sign Skubal, then they should sign him and not worry about a TJS in four or five years.
“How did Coles big money contract work out?”
Uhh, great? 19.8 WAR, a Cy Young, and two other top 4 finishes. Plus 12 starts in the postseason and a 2.93 ERA. Only 3/$108 million left as well. Yankees would re-do that contract any day of the week.
Trade him and it blows up the tigers business model. Ride him out til the deadline and reevaluate then when buyers are more desperate
Let’s assume Skubal wins his second straight Cy Young Award. There was another time a back to back Cy Young Award winner was traded: Clemens from the Blue Jays to the Yankees. Worked out pretty well for Clemens and the Yankees, not so much for the Blue Jays.
Don’t do it, Detroit.
Skubal doesn’t throw over 100 pitches. Absolutely lights out. For 6 innings. If he & his agent want $385 million money, they need to stretch him out as a starter.
He asked out of the game. When he gets his money, he’ll be throwing 115+ pitches in winner-take-all games
A similar situation with the White Sox and Crochet. He didn’t want to risk his arm until he got his contract. Once he did with the Red Sox, they pushed him more, including a career-high pitches in the recent Wild Card round game.
I don’t blame them, although it is a reminder of how CC Sabathia was different. He carried the Brewers with his workload right before his big contract.
He was pitching in the game that gets his team to the ALCS (final four teams). He should have thrown 130 or 140;. Whatever it took! Instead the Tigers lost.
Even if the Tigers had interest in giving Skubal $300M, Scott Boras is not going to allow him to sign before free agency. And then you have to compete with big market teams.
Trade Skubal And you don’t wait til July either.’
The Tigers just aren’t that good!
2 good hitters in the lineup — Carpenter and Riley Greene and both should be platoon players (can’t hit lefties). they also have a solid young catcher in Dingler.
the starter behind him are mediocre. The bullpen is awful beyond Will Vest.
I’m sure Wenceel Perez is gonna turn into a superstar any day now!
Trade Skubal!
Do you watch current baseball
I’m a Mariners fan and I was at Game 5 of the ALDS. I was literally stunned that Skubal came out after six innings and 99 pitches. Tigers had the lead and it was a win-or-go home game.
If I’m a Detroit fan I’m losing my mind. What’s the point of having an ace if he won’t dare throw more than 100 pitches in the most important game of his life?
Skubal, torkelson and dingler to Sacramento A’s for Kurtz, langeliers, rooker and Jamie Arnold. Who says no?
If any team needs a Skubal or a Skenes, it’s the Mets. However, I bet they sign Weaver another project to make into a starter.
They do seem to love their Yankees, be they players or coaches.
a’s would want more
Tigers would want more
DETROIT.
Tigers better jump all over that offer !
Y’all can have hunter greene for that package too !
Why would the A’s make this trade? It doesn’t make any sense. You’re trading guys from the same positions. The A’s aren’t a Skubal away from seriously contending. And if they were they wouldn’t trading away their best players for a rental pitcher.
Y’ever notice that the VAST majority of “who says no?” trade suggestions are delusional?
The rare trade proposal where both teams lose.
“# LeaveTarikAlone”
No. Tigers should try to extend him a la Garrett Crochet.
The Tigers are a really good team with Skubal. And they are not without him. I dont care if they sign him long term they still need to play to win in 2026. At least until July. No way a contending team should trade their best player and Cy Young caliber pitcher.
They paid everyone back in the day before ownership changed. Time for new owners to finally open up their coffers. It’s a better sport with him in Detroit and Detroit has the young talent to stay competitive in the central
I cant see any reason why they won’t try to sign him long term. But he has to want to sign there. Wealthy people dont typically want to spend a lot of time in Detroit. As a Cardinals fan I saw it with Pujols. Hard to blame him. California is nice…if you are rich……..
only if they can get this:
prospects:
#1
#3
#6
#15
and a player that can make their 26 man opening day roster
For one year of skubal who’s a guarantee to hit free agency with boras, wishful thinking getting that much
dont you dare try to trade him to the Yankees,
Don’t even think about it…ow ow ow OK OK stop twisting my arm, we’ll take him…
You wouldn’t like the cost.
Well, his agent is Scott Boras. And he’s going to try to get the absolute best contract for his client, as he should. If I’m the Tigers, I approach him with a serious offer this offseason according to his talent level, that level of talent being one of the best pitchers in baseball. If you can’t come to terms with him this offseason or have no interest in paying the deservedly exorbitant amount of money he will command, then trading him sooner will probably net you a return that changes your franchise for the better for a very very long time.
Yet another time of writers putting pressure on small markets to sell marketable players.
Like always, if you can get more value than you’ll be giving, it is a good trade to do. Value means more than raw numbers though, like the affinity a city may have to its superstars.. And in this case, Detroit do like that Skubal. Price should be very, very high, with a top-100-prospect cherry on top of that.
Detroit is not a small market. It’s the 14th biggest metro area in the USA without even counting the Canadian population across the river. They once signed Miguel Cabrera to a $248 million contract, and Skubal is a more valuable player at this point in his career than Cabrera was then.
2026-27 off-season? Am I on a basketball site?
🤣 dramatic effect
This is about as dumb as when the question was raised to trade Skenes after one year.
Mize and Tork were NEVER regarded as highly as McGonigle and Clark. Tigers have no 3rd baseman prospects, but loaded elsewhere. Love Skubal but for the right offer Tigers have to consider what is best long term.
Which should include at least two top starting pitching prospects MLB ready. Plus at least one ML bat.
Torque was #3 or #4 /100 mlb at some point.
They were both the overall #1 pick in their drafts. Yes they were.
Those were both weak drafts, Mize was projected by many to be a mid rotation pitcher which he is, not an ace. They tried to say Tork was a 3rd baseman to justify drafting him #1. Neither was the quality as McGonigle and Clark.
They were both universally mocked #1 overall picks in their year and Casey Mize was definitely projected to be an ace. He had just as much hype as Skenes before he got hurt. Torkelson was talked about as one of the better hitting prospects of the past decade when he was picked. Just because they haven’t reached their ceilings doesn’t mean they weren’t hyped back then.
Anderson and Lee can both handle 3rd. And Mize and Tork were both top-3 prospects in their draft classes. And people crapped on Detroit for taking Clark over Langford and Jenkins.
Tigers need to open up the pocketbook and pay the man. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for two straight seasons and he gave them quality innings in the playoffs. Trading him would be wild.
If you trade him then give up. Hes the best pitcher in the game. Give me a break
Theyre not gonna get a massive haul for 1 yr
Tigers will contend again in ‘26
Keep skubal mayb win a WS
Let him go you’re not finishing above .500
I just spoke with Buster and he is willing to give up Eldridge for Skubal and Torkelson. He is working on another deal for Alcantara and Edwards for Eldridge right now so they better act fast. I asked him why not Joe Ryan and Buxton but that sounds more like a plan B. Ramos for Gray is also is gaining traction.
Lol
Anyone but Roman Anthony for Skubal
There was no choice for “Hell no”.
As much as I would love to get him, Tarik Skubal should pitch for his entire career with Detroit and should go into the Hall of Fame as a Tiger. There are 6 million people in the Detroit/Windsor area, it isn’t a small market. They should re-sign him to a franchise record contract and add hitting around him.
This is the easiest MLBTR poll I’ve ever responded to. A resounding HELL NO
Who are next year’s Tigers? The guys on a massive losing streak? Or those guys that started the 2025 season?
If they trade Skubal, they should trade everybody…..
Can’t see them doing that. It would tramatic for the fans even if it was the right thing to do.
Skenes and Skubal on the same rotation would be something….
The window is open. Ride him next year and put a QO on him and get a draft pick.
Chris Illitch and his mother Marion are too F’ing CHEAP to pay anyone market value, especially Skubal so the Tigers have no choice but to trade him and get some value before he walks after the 2026 season. Hopefully the Illitchs sell the team soon since they have no interest in anything other than turning a profit
I dunno. I kinda feel like Marion is the only reason Chris hasn’t sold the team yet.
Yes. Clint Frazier, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird. Or Andujar straight up. My Yanks need him.
Nolan McLean and Tong for Skubes and Tork. Not sure if the Mets would be interested but as a Tiger’s fan I would.
Yes, trade him to the Dodgers. They need pitching help. Maybe take a few rookie league scrubs from the Dodgers. Fair trade.
This is all the more frustrating that Detroit didn’t go all in at the Trade Deadline to get the guys necessary to maximize the time you have left with Skubal. They should have loaded up for the ’25 and 26′ postseason…max ballz to the wallz. But instead they traded for replacement level (or worse) place holders. Either Scott Harris isn’t cut out for his job or ownership locked him out of his cell phone and laptop at the trade deadline.
Why would you deal him? If you were a Pirates level team I would get it, but the Tigers are at least a playoff team. Dealing him now is effectively giving up on the current core of their roster.
Only a handful of superstar trades have worked out for the team trading the superstar. One of them (Teixeira in 2009) only worked out because the compensation pick ended up being Mike Trout.
Edit: Angels let Teixeira walk as a free agent and the compensation pick was Trout.
Not a superstar but the Mike Hampton contract netted the pick for David Wright. I wonder how often comp picks ended up being legit franchise changers?
AL Central will be up for grabs for the forseeable future with all the owners pretty much refusing to spend money — this will give Detroit a chance at a playoff spot annually for the next 3-5 years.
If you could get 3 MLB-ready, cost-controlled players for Skub this winter — as much as it pains me to say it — I would entertain it.
Afterall, Skub only plays in 32 games per season. Upgrading your roster for the other 130 games would go a long way too.
Tigers are in win now mode. Absolutely shouldnt trade him.
Tigers should obviously throw him a massive offer. See if he’s dead set on a bidding on or wants to come back. If he wants the bidding war you have to trade him before the season unless you believe you’re the odds on World Series favorite with him. Spoiler Alert: they won’t be.
I think this scenario makes the most sense.
Detroit gets the best value in signing Skubal than any other team in the majors. Its a no brainer. Sign the best pitcher in baseball, and continue having that valuable ace while you are in the playoff zone. He’s proven himself, and now Detroit is trying to build its hitting lineup to match what he gives the team every time out, a chance to win.
Detroit’s pitching didn’t fail in the playoffs, its hitting did. I could see if Detroit was some impoverished team or no one ever attended like they do to Tampa Bay. That ain’t the case. You sign the best player when its your time to sign and keep him. Good grief. I don’t see him pricing himself out of Detroit.
Look at the Yankee’s without Cole. They have some real hammering guys, but fell like a rock to Toronto. If a team gets blessed with a real ace, you have to keep him. GO TIGERS !
You can never replace a Skubal and I don’t think teams will give up what you expect unless he signs an extension.
At the same time a mid market team tying up 20% of their payroll in one player is a risk. Tough decision either way
I have to say that it is extremely disappointing that I have to leave my email address in order to know the results so that people will have my email address and inundate me with all kinds of fun advertising.
So I am voting, but no… I don’t want to see the results.
No.
The Tigers made huge advances in re-establishing themselves as a baseball team. They’ve gone from 1.6M to 1.9M to 2.4M. This isn’t some second tier city. They could edge back towards 3M in attendance if they keep winning. The extra revenue will be more important in the long run.
If you’re not gonna pay him trade him
If he’s not gonna resign trade him
If you’re gonna pay him and he’s gonna stay keep him
Just don’t start him against the Mariners lol
Yes, trade him to the Dodgers. That way the Dodgers can run out the following rotation…
Yamamoto
Skubal
Glasnow
Snell
Ohtani
The poor Dodgers beg the Tigers for consideration.
Of course they shouldn’t; not during the offseason, anyway. There’s no excuse for them not to make a run for it next year. And if things aren’t going well by the trade deadline, his value will likely be around the same.
If they aren’t contending at the deadline, trade him. Otherwise, ride it out and give him a qualifying offer. Tigers won’t be able to match the big spenders, and he ain’t giving em a discount….
lol Who has the best farm system? It would take a haul to get him. Most teams wouldn’t have a shot even if they could pay him.
Tigers have the best farm system!
In some evaluator’s estimation the Tigers have #1 farm system, in other evaluator’s estimation the Mariners have #1. It’s such a subjective exercise. Let’s just say they’re both likely in the Top 3 somewhere, which is still damn good.
Fair enough. But all four Tiger minor league teams were over .500, two of them won their league championships, and a third finished #2.
as if that means anything at all!
Jed Hoyer on line 3
shaw has little value, ballesteros and caisse plus nico and horton
The thing with this story the person that wrote did not do his homework on it. Saying Tigers has never spent this kind of money on a player of $328 million on Miguel Cabrera the person should have said the owner Mr. I did and when saying Tigers it should say Chris I will not spend money with Tigers or Red Wings
No.. and they should be aggressively adding around him this year.
I’d trade him. If he’s out of your price range extension wise I’d trade him.
A team like the national have a glut of OF on cheap contracts and need an ace.
Say
Eli Willits #15 in A ball
Jarlin Susana #87
Daylen Lile .845 OPS
Basin Nunez .700 OPS in a utility role
Jake Bennett
Yohandy Morales.
Tigers true window for greatness is when the next wave of prospects get promoted, with McGonigle probably the first next year. There are not enough mlb hitters on the roster and not much in FA. Bregman at $40 million? It’s not about Illitch being cheap, just being smart with money.
The primary reason he’s not being traded this off-season: selling tickets. Skubal is the marquee attraction of the team, he sells a lot of tickets, and there’s no one they can trade him for who will replace those ticket sales.
Skubal sells tickets? Highly doubtful. He averages 15-16 home starts a season and
there’s 81 home games a year.
Are you telling me that the Tigers attendance is 10,000 higher on days when Skubal starts at Comerica? If not then you’re just making things up.
It is very unlikely that the Tigers trade Skubal. Sure, someone could make the proverbial offer Harris can’t refuse, but short of that he stays a Tiger for 2026. Harris may have been non-committal at the season ending presser, but if you actually listen to his previous comments, you will know a few things. First, he doesn’t believe in windows. He plans on being in contention every year. So he feels no pressure to go all in on Skubal this year, at least in the fashion most think. But he also does expect to contend in 2026 and he knows Skubal will be integral to that. He has also said earlier this year that he plans on Skubal pitching for the Tigers in 2026.
A ton of speculation on what exactly a Skubal trade could net. For Harris to pull a trigger on such a trade, he would need multiple MLB players with longer term control, PLUS several high level prospects. The MLB players would help the Tigers contend in 2026 and the prospects add to an impressive farm system. Few if any teams would be able to put together such a package. Anything less than that isn’t worth it.
Don’t offer him a dime. Boras wouldn’t accept no matter what. Keep him and run him out there every five days. If Boras calls put him in voice mail and don’t call back. Bank on the 27 owners who don’t own LAD NYY NYM to hold out for a salary cap.
If a salary cap is in place after 2026 LaD and both New York teams are basically de facto barred from bidding on FAs until they clear their respective caps.