After UCL surgery cost him the entire 2024 season, Lucas Giolito returned in 2025 to post solid results (3.41 ERA in 145 innings) in the Red Sox rotation before the injury bug arose just prior to the start of Boston’s Wild Card Series with the Yankees. Right flexor irritation and a bone issue kept Giolito off the playoff roster and unable to do anything besides watch as the Sox were eliminated in three games.
Adding to Giolito’s frustration was the fact that after getting the diagnosis and beginning some rehab work, “within three days, my elbow felt 100 percent fine again,” the right-hander told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford on the latest edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (partial transcript here). With no UCL damage discovered and the inflammation subsided, Giolito planned to quickly start a throwing program with the intention of returning later in the playoffs, except Boston’s run was cut short early.
As the offseason and Giolito’s free agency now begins, he said that is now “fully healthy,” even though he understands the complications that bought on by his late flexor issue. He said he is “happy to prove that I’m fully healthy in any way possible” to any skeptical front offices, and that the injury is completely behind him.
“There’s no injury, or whatever injury there was is gone. It was a weird, freak thing that popped up at the worst possible time, not only for the Red Sox but for myself and in general,” Giolito said. “Just the worst possible time. It makes my free agency harder. It prevented me from pitching in the playoffs where I had been a part of the rotation pretty much the entire year. It was just a very, very tough one to swallow. I still don’t like thinking about it.”
Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox during the 2023-24 offseason that broke down as an $18MM salary for 2024 and then a player option for a $19MM salary in 2025. Giolito’s internal brace procedure made it an easy call for him to exercise that $19MM option and remain in his Sox contract, and remaining in the deal also added a club option for 2026 worth at least $14MM. Since Giolito then tossed at least 140 innings in 2025, the club option was converted to a $19MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout, giving Giolito the right to test free agency again if he declined his end of the mutual option.
That is exactly what happened earlier this week, and Giolito finds himself on the open market again. He doesn’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services since the Sox didn’t issue him the one-year, $22.025MM offer. Giolito told Bradford that he didn’t expect the QO due to his injury: “You end of the year hurt, it puts a bad taste in the team’s mouth. It is what it is. Now, the fortunate side is that it was like the most benign, weird, freak injury that went away after a few days. So, now I’m like, great. I’m having a fully healthy, amazing offseason.”
Sour ending notwithstanding, Giolito still viewed his 2025 campaign as “really, really positive” given his own success and Boston’s success in returning to the playoffs. He is also hoping for an encore performance at Fenway Park in 2026 and beyond.
“I made it clear to everybody. I would love to come back here and continue to play for the Red Sox. It’s the most fun I have ever had having a season with a team in the big leagues,” Giolito said. “I felt like the way it ended left such a bad taste in my mouth, and the rest of the team, particularly me not being able to pitch in that playoff series. It really sucked. I was like I really hope I can come back, and it goes better for us next time.”
MLBTR ranked Giolito 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the right-hander to land a two-year, $32MM contract. There was a bit of flexibility within that projection since some teams may feel comfortable enough in Giolito’s health to add a club/vesting option for a third year, or perhaps even just a fully guaranteed third year.
This mid-range price tag should put Giolito on the radar for a lot of clubs, and a return to Boston certainly seems plausible since the Sox are still in need of pitching. The expectation is that the Red Sox will pursue a frontline arm to team with Garrett Crochet atop the rotation, but adding this hypothetical ace and Giolito would only deepen the rotation and make the Sox better equipped for a longer postseason run.
Sox should bring Giolito back only if he’s no higher than their #4 starter.
What does that even mean?
If they don’t have 3 better starters, they should get a worse startet than Gio?
It means even if they bring him back, they still need to pursue someone better who is a legit #2. I think it’s a long shot to see a Gio reunion because we have so many young arms and Sandoval is expected to be in the mix. Any pitching they add needs to be a clear upgrade over the many in-house options. Ideally, it will look like:
Crochet
[new guy]
Dobbins
Bello
Early/Tolle/Sandoval
DirtyWater understands.
Sandavol is on the books for $12.75 mill in 2026 and was paid $5.5 mill in 2025 with the intention of him sitting most/all the year. He wasn’t signed to be in the pen. He will be a starter.
They also just signed Criswell to a MLB contract.
Seems like upgrading the number 2 starter spot with Bello 3, sandavol 4 and someone in house 5 is likely unless they can bring Gio back very cheap as the number 4 with sandavol 5 and the other guys start the year in the minors
Crochet
Bello
Sandavol
Criswell
Early
Crawford
Dobbins
Tolle
Fitts
While I was for a return, I now don’t see it happening and believe Giolito simply spoke what he needed to say.
Dirty – I think youre on the right track. Not sure if Dobbins would be the #3, but you’ve hit it right on the head that the #2 is from the outside and the #5 is internal
Dont forget Harrison
123, I agree they are going to try and find a way to work in Sandoval. There is also enough depth to afford them the luxury of not having to rush him back into the mix and they can go at whatever pace his recovery dictates.
Maybe It’s a 6 man rotation early on, maybe they slow walk Tolle and hold him in the minors for more seasoning (arguably the right thing to do with his development unless he is flat out dominant in ST). If recent history is any indicator it seems we can pretty much count on at least one or two guys getting hurt and missing real time, so perhaps his window to contribute opens when somebody hits the shelf. I’m also not expecting Sandoval to contribute much, and I think there are enough internal options that are more compelling they won’t be afraid to repeat what they did with Buehler and May if Sandoval isn’t getting it done in his innings.
Dirty, one thing they should look at in ST is his pitch selection. Dude has 4 legit pitches, but they only let him use 2 last season in the big leagues.
They should let him use his whole arsenal and see what happens.
That’s not at all what you said, but ok
Juan: that’s exactly what I said. Simple concept. Really simple.
Dirty- Until I actually see Sandoval on the diamond getting batters out, I don’t have him in the lineup. Gio was solid enough that if we can get him for a short term contract to stabilize the bottom of the rotation it is worth considering. You can never have too much pitching and we can trade the excess if we have any.
On the other hand, getting the #2 pitcher is the priority and if that means not putting money into a #4 pitcher (what I assume Gio would fill) I am fine with it.
We had such a small sample size for Dobbins that I am not sure where he is going to fit. I am not convinced he is going to be the #3. We need to get him back on a mound and see what he does this spring.
30
No. It’s not what you said.
Realistically I should’ve flipped where I had Dobbins and Bello. The reason I didn’t correct myself was because in my opinion if both are healthy I expect them to have pretty similar results. I’d agree calling Dobbins a 3 right now is a little bit of a stretch, but I liked enough what I saw from him that I believe he can and should be part of the mix.
It means that the idea should be that assuming Crotchet is #1 and Bello #3 that they would sign a 1B or 2, and Giolito be signed as a 4. The rest would compete for the 5, depth, and pen.
Juan, let me try to translate this for you,,,,
Inside Gio’s Head ” I will decline the option, they’ll offer the QO, and I’ll accept!”
18 seconds later…
Gio to his agent, “What do you mean nobody is offering more than 1 year at 5 million!?!?!?!”
7 seconds later… “Dear Boston, you are the BESTEST CITY EVAHH!
3 seconds later,
Inside Breslow’s Head, “Gio who? “
Now that i think abt it
In the last 10 yrs
Whitesox had Chris sale, Giolito, cease, and crochet at some point in their young careers
Thats some kinda drafting/scouting/development skills.
Somehow Never won a playoff series & then set the single season L record
It gets worse. I was just looking it up…. Gio Gonzalez, Rodon, Bassitt, All drafted by the WS.
No mystery. WSox have been the worst team in MLB at developing position players to hit for 25 years in the KW/Hahn era. Reinsdorf promoted unqualified, failed farm director Getz to fix it w/o interviewing qualified candidates outside his dysfunctional “kiss the ring” way of running things. Good work with starters can’t overcome terrible offenses over 162 games.
Fortunately, Getz has done a good job. They had a good second half. But the WS need to spend. They have $35M committed to two mediocre players and -0- for the other 24 players.
Not quite yet. They need to prove ability to keep Teel/Montgomery/Vargas on an upward trajectory as league makes them adjust. That and injuries was where the first rebuild failed with its massively hyped hitting prospects. Late season garbage time is often misleading.
Firing the pitching coach was also necessary-they have done a poor job assembling bullpen pieces last 2 full years and Katz had no clue entire several year tenure how to teach anyone to hold runners-little league embarrassing.
JR has a legit built-in excuse of his own making for 2026 to hold off spending.
I hope Imai of Japan is posted
Tar – They already announced he will be.
Don’t expect him to be another Yamamoto though, and I doubt he’d sign with the Red Sox.
we should get a new manager first
lf – If Crochet or Chapman don’t repeat their performances next year and the Sox don’t make the playoffs, Cora probably will get replaced.
FPG, look I’ve wanted Cora gone for a long time, but the reality is that you have to get rid of John Henry first. He’s Henry’s guy. Cora isn’t going anywhere.
Fever and DBH, I too have wanted Cora gone but overall, he did as well as could be expected given the injuries and drama. Veritek remains the manager in waiting assuming he wants the job.
I hope that Varitek stays around long enough to replace Cora. I do think there is the potential that Cora moves into an administrative position at some point. I agree with you that Cora did a solid job last season considering injuries and the lack of significant moves at the deadline. Getting back into the playoffs certainly gave him more time to take that next step.
Guy who’s had like 4 TJs just called more elbow pain a ‘freak injury’
Uh huh
No, he has had “like” one internal brace surgery. It always helps to check your facts before running your mouth.
Gmoney loves nothing more than posting unsubstantiated garbage
Reality Lucas Giolito has had one TJ surgery in 2012 and then an internal brace surgery in 2024.
Y’all ever heard of hyperbole or nah
Valley girl?
Seems to me that Boston has pitching depth but lack a real #2, is Gio a #2? I dont think he is, offer the farm for Skubal and they become a scary good team!
A Crochet Skubal tandem would be lethal, but I’m not sure the Red Sox system has enough (and I assume the Tigers would send him to the NL, unless really blown away) to interest the Tigers.
Tigers already have McGonigle and Rainer for middle infield prospects which makes Arias a lackluster fit. Would Early, Garcia and Wetherspoon be enough?
The Tigers are already heavily LH, so adding Duran or Abreu would be a poor fit. Maybe Rafeala could be interesting, but he is the Red Sox only true CFer and Max Clark isn’t far away for the Tigers.
Not close to enough.
Remember it’s one year and a lockout is likely looming. Only way I’d consider paying what it seems to take is if there is a provided window first to negotiate a new deal. That’s not happening so move on to other trades and wait for the Tigers to explore offers and hopefully get back to Breslow.
1-Never trade with a team that has no interest in trading the player you’re interested in.
2-IMHO, Raffy has to be off the boards for almost anyone.
Correct. We have a ton of interesting arms. None of them constitute a real #2 in 2026.
If Houck regains form he may be one in 2027 or 2028. Kutter Crawford is solid but more of a mid-rotation guy and turns 30 in April so probably doesn’t have that big of a jump in him. Early and Tolle look like they have that kind of upside potential but aren’t there yet – perhaps in time with some patience but you never know unless and until they break out for real. And Perales is a wild card but another potential emergence within the next couple of years.
If 2026 is when the window opens for real as is expected, they will probably look to use some of those arms and other prospects to get a guy who is ready to be a top of rotation type of arm immediately.
Houck is a non tender candidate. Likely out all 2026. Who knows how he comes back in 2027 and then he’s a FA
Hence why I said “if he regains form.” I understand he might not and even if he does it probably takes some time.
I will be surprised if he gets non-tendered though. I don’t think it would be a good look to non-tender a homegrown pitcher who has shown flashes of real talent to go rehab on his own after multiple years in a row where they’ve handed out 2 year deals to free agents to come spend a full year rehabbing inside the organization in the hope they might be able to pitch well in the second year.
If anything, I bet they sign him to a 2 year deal to buy out those last two turns through arbitration at a lower rate this year and then a bigger number in ’27.
Even if a contract extension isn’t in the cards, if they rehab him successfully he could become a valuable bullpen piece or trade candidate and you can never have too many of either.
Dirty – What is your take on Bello?
He made enormous strides this season, and finished 17th in MLB for ERA.
Do you see him as strictly a #3 next year?
I’ve always advocated making Houck a back of the pen guy. He has legit stuff, just can’t make it past 4 or 5 innings too often.
FPG
Bello certainly had a good season. His post season start is concerning and his shrinking strikeout total. He still will be only 26 at the start of next year. He needs to get closer to 200 innings pitched to get to a # 2 pitcher. Needs to refine his change-up as a swing and miss pitch. A strikeout pitch.
cdc – I totally agree on the innings needing to improve. He did end the season kinda bad, hopefully it was just a stamina thing.
DBH – Before the injury last year he averaged 6 1/3 innings over 27 starts, but who knows if he will ever become that ASG starting pitcher again.
I have never thought Bello would bloom into anything higher than a 3. I just don’t see the command for him to be counted on to stretch innings, and I don’t see dominant stuff as a sinker baller. He can be a reliable guy however to give you more good games then stinkers. For the Sox, that is enough to be a 3. If he is their 4 or 5 that means the Sox rotation is good enough to be a legit WS contender.
I really like what we saw from Bello this season and hope he continues to advance. If he does have more improvement in him, he could wind up in that mix as a decent 2 or really good 3. What I don’t want is for them to derail his confidence now that he finally took the long awaited step forward by forcing him into a bigger role and responsibility than he’s ready for yet. So I would prefer to plan on him being the 3 or 4 for now, right there with Dobbins, who I expect to have pretty similar numbers.
CD, that’s exactly where I’m at.
He showed nice improvement in 2025 and if it’s a one year blip I can look past the lack of swing and miss stuff because he made strides in learning how to pitch and not just throw. I also am choosing to believe he was a little worn out by the end of the year because he set a new career high in IP.
As a 26 year old I think he is at a proverbial fork in the road where he will either find that improvement to get his swing and miss back and if he does, is a really nice 2 or 3 type of starter. Otherwise if he plateaus here then he is better suited for the mid to back end of the rotation.
I think any hypothetical Skubal trade talk starts with Roman Anthony and then immediately gets shut down.
The Tigers are in a strange position, a kinda bad one if they don’t believe they can afford Skubal long term. They can still compete next year and trading away Skubal would mean they’d want a package that would keep them competitive, young guys that can produce for several years. But, if Skubal truly is planning on testing FA, his trade value takes a hit. Thus in my opinion, they’d ask the Red Sox for Anthony and Breslow would say thanks but no thanks.
The way I see it is if Skubal gets traded it’ll be at the deadline and only if the Tigers don’t see a path to the WS or they get a crazy offer.
No team trades a top 5 prospect for a one year rental anymore.
The Skubal trade would be in the same trade acquisition cost range of Burnes, Soto and Tucker over the past few years.
For one year of Skubal? That’s absurd.
For Skenes? Not absurd, but not something I’d want the Sox to do.
For Skubal, I would be ok with pretty much any offer that doesn’t include Anthony. I’d even say like Abreu, Tolle + 1, and then the trade is contingent on the Sox working out an extension. This kind of trade has been done before, with the Reds acquiring Sonny Gray in 2019 being contingent on him signing an extension in 72 hours.
I don’t think the Tigers would be interested in Abreu. They are already incredibly light handed with only one above average RH bat (Tork).
I think it would need to be two of Early, Tolle and Witherspoon + Garcia as a minimum.
No you just want more money otherwise you wouldn’t have opted out.
Not buying the story Giolito.
Like that one coworker who calls out sick on a Monday or Friday.
em – Agreed! And Giolito already basically conned the Sox into one overpay, they would look like total idiots if it happens again.
“It was like a really really freak thing. I feel like totally normal; the most normal I have ever felt. Like, it was a freak occurrence for 24-48 hours max. Now I feel really really swell. And I love this team. Really really had the best time in my existence here…” Is this guy from the Valley ??
Burbank. So, like, yeah? Totally.
Jarren Duran, Tristan Casas, and two top-100 prospects?
Monstah- would YOU take that if you were running the Tigers?
I think probably not. Yes, hes a pure rental, but the fans will be calling for heads regardless of what the return is, you better do a heck of a lot more than that
That’s the price for Greene, but a decent-sized overpay for Skubal.
JB
It would take more than Duran,Casas,and 2 top 100 prospects to acquire Greene or Skubal . IMO.
Greene is the ideal pick up, but here is the problem. Cincinnati still has years of control, they find it near impossible to afford bringing in top-flight pitching in free agency, and they do not have the kind of depth with experience to let him go. Cincinnati is always looking for a deal and Greene is pitching for them at a great price point.
You take that into account, and it doesn’t make sense for them to trade him yet.
Guys,
Francona has already said he doesn’t expect Greene traded, and, it also makes no sense.
IMO the Move for the Sox is a straight up Duran for Peralta trade. Their salaries are almost a perfect match and the fact that the Brewers may take that offer leaves the powder dry (in terms of prospect capital) for a post 2026 run at Skenes, when he’s more likely to be traded than before/during 2026
I’d be surprised if the Brewers traded Peralta and didn’t also get prospects or younger cheaper ML’ers. Kinda like they did for Burnes. They don’t typically go for a guy in arb. Duran will be below market $ the next 2 years but his salary will bump up to $12MM-$13MM or so in 2026 and then potentially approaching $20MM in 2027.
I think MIL likes their current outfield as well. Chourio/Frelick/Collins—Mitchell is on hand as a good bench option. I could be wrong but it would differ from what MIL usually does. I’d be very tempted to keep him.
He’s definitely a high risk high reward guy. Probably a two-year deal at most. From what team, not really sure.
Gonna cost roman Anthony that the starting piece, Tristan casas is trash period, if no team was willing to trade for him than he is just not what teams want, just a player who just not good in MLB more of 3A level talent
Gonna cost roman Anthony that the starting piece,
========================
LOL! Not even remotely close.
I’d be fine with Giolito coming back on another two year deal but i feel like he’s going to want 3 or 4 years which they probably shouldn’t do. Bring back Giolito and make a run at Imai to sure up the middle of the rotation
If Giolito loves the Sox so much and wants to come back so badly, he could have accepted the option at $19M for 2026. So he doesn’t love that THAT much!
Righty who knows how to pitch. Check.
I’m so glad that signing Giolito will allow the Red Sox to go “deeper in the playoffs.”. Maybe they should worry about making the playoffs first. Injuries happen. Langford may leave. Baltimore may rebound. Players have off years. Depth is important. No team should assume the playoffs in December.
Declining your option is not wanting to come back, you want more money, no thanks, was a fun year, good luck somewhere else bud.
I’m missing something….he had an option that would have brought him back at $19M and he wanted to stay? But he turned it down. The RS presumably thought this was a good way to disentangle themselves from someone who wanted more than was prudent to pay. There were plenty of ways the two sides could have stayed together.
It was a mutual option that the RS were likely to decline.
This was the right move. If Gio accepts, the RS think he’s injured. If he declines, he wants the RS to think he’s healthy.
But as others have said, he’s not a clear upgrade over what we have now.
Thanks, I mis-read it. It seems like his quotes reflect a certain shock at the outcome.
Red Sox should flex their financial muscle now that the team is on the verge of competing. I’m not saying they will do this but they should.
I think they should sign Bregman, Schwarber or Alonzo, and Cease. Maybe make a few trades around the edges trade some guys they are going to lose in the rule 5. They have Early, Crawford, Sandoval, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts and possibly Tolle. They have a slew of pitchers in AA. The Red Sox have legit pitching depth. It’s time for ownership to put up or shut up. There is no reason why this team can’t have a close to 300 million pay roll. The team is very close to competing to represent the AL in the World Series but they need to get in the game monetarily.
The Red Sox aren’t trading for one of year of Skubal and they certaintly aren’t trading Anthony plus for one of year of Skubal. If Detroit fans think that it takes Anthony plus to land Skubal then enjoy him this year because no chance in He** of that happening. Skubal is repped by Boras and will most likely be going to free agency if Boras has anything to say about it therefore you have to assume you have Skubal for 1 year. Breslow isn’t going to pay the exorbitant price for Skubal especially if they demand Anthony that’s just crazy talk.
Sounds good, but not sure it’s a good idea to invest in Cease long-term. I think he would likely be Carlos Rodon 2.0 in the AL East.
Bruin – Totally agree on Skubal/Anthony, it’s an incredibly dumb trade proposal.
But I do think trading for Skubal is a possibility, especially if it’s contingent on an extension being agreed upon. If the Sox let Bregman walk, they will have plenty of money to cover a Skubal extension and a RHB with power and still be under the CBT threshold.
Otherwise, I say go for Peralta.
Pass on Cease given his age and inconsistency. I’d pass on the rest of those 3 offensive players outside of may Alonzo depending on the length of the deal.
For the Sox to be a real contender next season,they must acquire a legit top of the rotation pitcher. Whether it be Peralta,Ryan, Greene,or Skubal, for a package featuring Duran/Abreu and prospects. Whatever it takes. Resign Bregman,and sign Josh Naylor to play 1stbase. IMO. That’s a squad that can compete and win a WS.
Money talks. He wants to hose them for a big contract.
I understand why the Sox didn’t offer a QO, but you were almost on the hook for 19 mil as it was and he pitched well last season. 3 mil more for only 1 more season feels reasonable if he were to have accepted it. And upside of getting a draft pick seems worth it also. Plus, it kinda hurts his market, so let’s say he doesn’t accept the QO, he likely signs for less that the 2 years 32 mil mlbtr projects. Therefore you would be in the race to resign him cheaper than that projection, multiple years closer to his QO $. Spread the cost out. And ur the Red Sox. $22 mil if he accept isn’t gonna make or break your team. So I would have don’t the QO. The reward outweighs the risk in my opinion.
Giolito’s broken, isn’t he?
Bring him back he had a sub 3 ERA his final 19 starts.
Giolito should come back.You need starters.I agree a Skubal or Skenes or any other teams Ace would work.If you have been watching the Red Sox always struggle to keep their starters on the mound.Tolle,Early haven’t proven much,Sandoval is coming back from an injury.If by Opening day they are all healthy,then make a trade.But if you don’t bring back Giolito or some guys for the back of the rotation, people will be clamoring,when injuries hit.
The Red Sox should take a pass on Giolito and focus on:
Signing Alex Bregman to a 4 year contract at $30 million a year with incentives to earn $2 million extra for the number of plate appearances he reaches each year (120, 130, 140, 150, & 160). That means Bregman can earn an additional $10 million each year if he reaches 160 plate appearances that year. Add 2 more option years that would be picked up if he reaches 140 plate appearances (no incentives) in year 4 and year 5. The total guaranteed money would be $120 million with an opportunity to earn up to $220 million. This contract would be a win-win for both sides.
&
Signing Pete Alonso to a similar contract; a 4 year contract at $25 million a year with incentives to earn $2 million extra for the number of plate appearances he reaches each year (120, 130, 140, 150, & 160). That means Alonso can earn an additional $10 million each year if he reaches 160 plate appearances that year. Add 2 more option years that would be picked up if he reaches 140 plate appearances (no incentives) in year 4 and year 5. The total guaranteed money would be $100 million with an opportunity to earn up to $190 million. This contract would also be a win-win for both sides.
&
Trading for MacKenzie Gore, Hunter Greene, or both.
Is that wishful thinking?
My bad. I meant games he plays each year (120, 130, 140, 150, & 160). It could be plate appearances (400, 450, 500, 550, & 600).
He could have accepted the 19 mill option if he wanted to be In Boston that bad….but he didn’t. No thanks
Please don’t