As the first major piece of the offseason puzzle shakes loose, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Naylor nearing deal:
The big news from this weekend was the Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor getting together on what’s expected to be a five-year deal in the range of $90MM-$100MM. That Naylor re-upped in Seattle is hardly a surprise given that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had made it extremely clear that retaining Naylor was a “priority” for his front office headed into the winter. Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well. Even if it was an expected outcome, however, a deal coming together so quickly and at a level that seems likely to meet or slightly exceed MLBTR’s five-year $90MM prediction for his eventual contract seems like a good sign for the players on the market this winter. The deal figures to be made official at some point in the near future, and a more specific breakdown of the contract structure is likely to be revealed in the coming days as well.
2. What’s next for Seattle?
Now that Seattle has landed their top priority of the winter, it’s fair to wonder what a team that came just one game from the World Series this season will do moving forward. It would make sense for them to continue looking for ways to bolster their infield, given that Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez both hit free agency alongside Naylor to open up holes at second and third base. The Mariners are also known to be looking into the high leverage relief market this winter. One other question would be about the future of Harry Ford, who showed himself to be ready for the big leagues but is blocked from everyday playing time by Cal Raleigh behind the plate. Perhaps Ford could be tabbed as the team’s backup catcher and get semi-regular starts elsewhere in the lineup, though it also seems as though a trade may not be off the table.
3. Nationals to introduce Blake Butera:
As noted by Bobby Blanco of MASN, newly-minted Nationals manager Blake Butera will be available to the media later today in an introductory press conference scheduled for 1:30pm local time. Butera, 33, is the youngest manager in MLB as he steps into his new role and is arguably among the most unorthodox in a sea of unusual managerial hires this winter. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni will presumably be in attendance as well and has spoken effusively of his new skipper in previous comments to the media. Prior to being hired by Toboni, Butera had served as the Rays’ senior director of player development and was a manager in the minor leagues for four seasons.

I’m still not entirely sure why the M’s gave up on giving Ford OF reps in the minors (though admittedly never looked into it), but I wish he had the versatility to fit the roster better right now. I don’t think backup C is the right role for him and regular DH feels wasteful.
Glad Naylor is back in the fold, that’s massive!
Almost have to carry a 3rd catcher if your primary DH is also you backup C. Could still be a good way to keep cal fresh and break Ford into the league
I dont think the problem is him actually being the backup or #3 C. Its that he wouldnt play enough to continue to develop, if he was in that role.
I think they can make it work. The occasional day off for Raleigh, giving Raleigh 1 day a week at DH, one day a week at DH himself, and then figure out what he can do in the OF for to get even more consistent work.
Although depending what hus value in trade is, maybe they get more value that way.
Because giving him outfield reps would delay his MLB readiness and his value is higher as a catcher. Interfering with that wouldn’t help.
I don’t see Ford as a backup and I certainly don’t see him as a DH for Seattle, even if only in a platoon rolê. It seems far more likely he’s traded, but I would hope they’re not determined to move him.
I’d have no problem with him playing every day in Tacoma as depth for now. They could reassess in July.
Agree 100% Stevil re: OF. It makes zero sense to give him OF reps and slow his development at C.
As long as they find a few starts a week for him that development could come in Seattle, idk how much he will actually learn from AAA beyond just getting game reps. Reps are super important too, but having Cal & Dan to learn from daily could also be impactful.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. There’s not really a long term spot for him at DH either. I dont think anyone thinks Lazaro Montes will be passable in a corner.
Ford doesn’t have the power for DH, anyway.
A bench rolê could hurt his value beyond development, it would cut into his service time which could affect a future trade.
I know this isn’t a popular take, but I’d rather see him in Tacoma than as the backup catcher occasionally pinch-hitting or running.
Ford had a very shaky small sample in LF in the minors in 2024. I agree though that he makes sense as a platoon RF with his arm and speed.
Develop talent based on a players’ strengths, not on organizational needs.
Because report out there that Ford wasn’t that good in the outfield..
So where does this put Alonso’s price tag?
Alonso was a 3.4 war to Naylors 3.1 they seem similar but not a direct comp.
I don’t think Alonso was ever going to get anymore than 5/100. This confirms that guess.
If anything, Polar Bear might get even less since he has no baserunning or defense to contribute. I don’t think his market will be as robust as he thinks.
Yeah. I don’t understand the narrative around Alonso being an elite player. The power is real but that’s his only plus tool.
If you’re going to have just one plus tool…
Maybe but I think fans and front offices have a completely different perspective on that
Fans over value it, yes
Let’s not run down Pete too much.
His career batting average is still .253, which in these modern times isn’t too bad. Naylor is obviously a little better at .269, but Pete has a better on base to the tune of .341 to Naylor’s .329. Point is, when you combine Pete’s prodigious power ( he had a league leading 41 doubles to go with his 38 homers this season) with a respectable batting average and solid on base, he’s not a simple one trick pony.
Also, Alonso is bad defensively, no doubt. League leading 10 errors at first and a -9 DRS this season. But last season, Naylor put up 9 errors and a -6 DRS at first. He’s not much of a threat for a gold glove himself, although he is better than Alonso, low bar as that may.
At the end of the day, Alonso is 2 and a half years older than Naylor. Josh will be 28 at the start of the next season while Pete will be 31. That will be the biggest factor in his reduced expectations.
@WillisVonGillis
Only Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber have hit more homeruns than Alonso over the past five seasons (195 total). In ’25, 19 teams did not have a single player hit over 30 homeruns. Alonso’s plus tool can transform an entire lineup.
I think he’s worth $30M right now. I just don’t think it will hold up longer than 4 years.
Pete was looking for a seven-year deal, and probably higher AAV. Stearns played chicken with him last offseason and now they need pitching so I’m not so sure he’s coming back to the Mets now.
I think they’ll be shopping for rotation depth and/or a mid rotation arm. McLean and Sproat looked good. I would expect some level of bounce back from Senga and Manea.
I don’t think it precludes them from bringing Alonso back. I just don’t think he’s worth what he’s asking.
Oh yeah I agree, Pete is going to have drop his asking price. If he does, then there’s a good chance Mets bring him back.
I wonder if Naylor signing might be the start of a small trend. Some players, especially in the “solid B+” segment, might be thinking that holding out “to see what the market has” might entail risks they don’t want to take–especially with looming CBA negotiations. Take the good money, sign the contract, move on. The two year with an opt-out isn’t worth as much if you lose 1/4 of your 2027 salary.
The looming CBA negotiations are probably a big factor. As you said, sometimes job security is better than risking for a few more dollars.
Wouldn’t read it for this-a mutual known good fit and player willing to return as long as it wasn’t a lowball.
That aside, the BP free agent arms better not get too cute. Teams are using SPs in playoffs when it matters and BP can be a cheaper assembly line for reg season. Can start being like RBs in football. The ones who log lot of appearances (used up/spit out by old team) often fall off bad next season/onward and MLB clubs recognize they may get a “tired” version. That’s why less used bouncebacks or failed starters can be cheaper and better performance for BP straight up than paying premium for BP guy’s career year or 2 stretch.
Love the idea of Ford on the team but I think he is most valuable in a trade. A starting IF or RF would be amazing.
Many players in Ford’s position never have higher value. Pittsburgh has gone through more than one highly touted catcher on their own recently. With only poor results to show
Don’t treat Ford like the Pirates did with Henry Davis. Find a consistent playing position, then let him develop ⚾
Would Harry ford be enough for a guy like Cade smith? Is Mason miller on the table in San Diego?
I don’t know much about Harry Ford (22, 98 wRC+ projection from FG, 50 FV, blocked by Raleigh) but I do know a bit about Daulton Rushing (24, 98 wRC+ projection, 60 FB, blocked by Will Smith).
Makes sense to me to trade Ford. Maybe Rushing too.
There’s some talk of moving Smith to 1B once Freeman’s contract expires, so the team could keep Rushing as a backup for 2 more years and when letting him take over as catcher later. I get it. But unless you think he’s really going to be that guy, it makes more sense to me to trade him now and worry about a catcher later.
Unless Raleigh is ticketed for DH pretty soon, and I don’t think that’s the case, I’d be inclined to move on from Ford.
Please trade Ford to the Rays.
Am I the only one surprised it’s only for 90 mil. I thought for sure he was going to break 100. I would have thought closer to 120 than 90.
He produced a career high 3.1 bWAR this season, in part buoyed by those hard to fathom 30 stolen bases. He’s only had one other season where he even broke 2 bWAR. He’s about 15-20% above average bat with little defensive value. If and when pitchers start looking over their shoulders and his stolen bases drop back down, he’ll be back to a 2 bWAR player.
The contract seems fine.
Is it 90? I have been seeing 90-100 range.