As the first major piece of the offseason puzzle shakes loose, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Naylor nearing deal:
The big news from this weekend was the Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor getting together on what’s expected to be a five-year deal in the range of $90MM-$100MM. That Naylor re-upped in Seattle is hardly a surprise given that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had made it extremely clear that retaining Naylor was a “priority” for his front office headed into the winter. Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well. Even if it was an expected outcome, however, a deal coming together so quickly and at a level that seems likely to meet or slightly exceed MLBTR’s five-year $90MM prediction for his eventual contract seems like a good sign for the players on the market this winter. The deal figures to be made official at some point in the near future, and a more specific breakdown of the contract structure is likely to be revealed in the coming days as well.
2. What’s next for Seattle?
Now that Seattle has landed their top priority of the winter, it’s fair to wonder what a team that came just one game from the World Series this season will do moving forward. It would make sense for them to continue looking for ways to bolster their infield, given that Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez both hit free agency alongside Naylor to open up holes at second and third base. The Mariners are also known to be looking into the high leverage relief market this winter. One other question would be about the future of Harry Ford, who showed himself to be ready for the big leagues but is blocked from everyday playing time by Cal Raleigh behind the plate. Perhaps Ford could be tabbed as the team’s backup catcher and get semi-regular starts elsewhere in the lineup, though it also seems as though a trade may not be off the table.
3. Nationals to introduce Blake Butera:
As noted by Bobby Blanco of MASN, newly-minted Nationals manager Blake Butera will be available to the media later today in an introductory press conference scheduled for 1:30pm local time. Butera, 33, is the youngest manager in MLB as he steps into his new role and is arguably among the most unorthodox in a sea of unusual managerial hires this winter. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni will presumably be in attendance as well and has spoken effusively of his new skipper in previous comments to the media. Prior to being hired by Toboni, Butera had served as the Rays’ senior director of player development and was a manager in the minor leagues for four seasons.

I’m still not entirely sure why the M’s gave up on giving Ford OF reps in the minors (though admittedly never looked into it), but I wish he had the versatility to fit the roster better right now. I don’t think backup C is the right role for him and regular DH feels wasteful.
Glad Naylor is back in the fold, that’s massive!
Almost have to carry a 3rd catcher if your primary DH is also you backup C. Could still be a good way to keep cal fresh and break Ford into the league
I dont think the problem is him actually being the backup or #3 C. Its that he wouldnt play enough to continue to develop, if he was in that role.
I think they can make it work. The occasional day off for Raleigh, giving Raleigh 1 day a week at DH, one day a week at DH himself, and then figure out what he can do in the OF for to get even more consistent work.
Although depending what hus value in trade is, maybe they get more value that way.
The 3rd C is the guy not getting any playing time. Cal/Ford/Ford/Cal C/DH/DH/C. They’re both playing 6 or 7 a week with whichever defensive specialist one of your starters has hand selected getting starts with that pitcher, but eventually PH for after the starter is taken out of its close
Because giving him outfield reps would delay his MLB readiness and his value is higher as a catcher. Interfering with that wouldn’t help.
I don’t see Ford as a backup and I certainly don’t see him as a DH for Seattle, even if only in a platoon rolê. It seems far more likely he’s traded, but I would hope they’re not determined to move him.
I’d have no problem with him playing every day in Tacoma as depth for now. They could reassess in July.
Agree 100% Stevil re: OF. It makes zero sense to give him OF reps and slow his development at C.
As long as they find a few starts a week for him that development could come in Seattle, idk how much he will actually learn from AAA beyond just getting game reps. Reps are super important too, but having Cal & Dan to learn from daily could also be impactful.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. There’s not really a long term spot for him at DH either. I dont think anyone thinks Lazaro Montes will be passable in a corner.
Ford doesn’t have the power for DH, anyway.
A bench rolê could hurt his value beyond development, it would cut into his service time which could affect a future trade.
I know this isn’t a popular take, but I’d rather see him in Tacoma than as the backup catcher occasionally pinch-hitting or running.
They’ll find plenty of playing time for him. People were saying the same things about Drake Baldwin last spring and he ended up playing 124 games and winning ROY. Ford has spent enough time in the minors. He’s been a staple of top-prospect lists for years and is as ready for the majors as he will ever be.
All but 12 of Baldwin’s starts we’re at Catcher.
Not the same opportunity in Seattle for Ford, which I already explained.
I personally think he’s more likely to be traded, but we’ll see.
It’s hard to develop a catcher if he isn’t catching. Big concern I have for the O’s with Basallo and he’d be behind the plate a lot more than Ford would at the ML level. A swap like the Phils and Angels did with Ohoppe for Marsh seems like the right call for Seattle.
Nobody is talking about giving him outfield reps *now*, it was about why he started getting those reps 16 months ago then suddenly stopped. He almost certainly has to be traded now. It makes no sense to keep him. We’ve already somewhat screwed up his development.
Stevil, I’m not talking about giving him outfield reps now. Zero point in doing that. I’m talking about exploring that and cutting it off so suddenly that there was no way to guage if it was going to be feasible, and by all accounts I saw he didn’t look all that bad at it.
Ford had a very shaky small sample in LF in the minors in 2024. I agree though that he makes sense as a platoon RF with his arm and speed.
Develop talent based on a players’ strengths, not on organizational needs.
Ford needs to find a comfortable position to call home whether with the Mariners or another club. Seems like he’s been in the minors long enough but he has yet to master a playing position. The thing is there’s tons of teams out there who need a young catcher, but no team is sold on his catching abilities yet. If a team had been, he would’ve been shipped off by now. It’s an odd situation to be in, for sure.
So trade him then. The way we’re handling him right now is not best for him or the team. Also, one of his biggest strengths is his athleticism. Before his senior year of high school, no one knew what position he was going to be drafted at, whether it be OF, 2B, or C.
Because report out there that Ford wasn’t that good in the outfield..
He caught 120 games. Only a couple of other catchers caught more games.
The reason he played in more games than any other catcher (by far) is because he didn’t get the traditional Sundays and day games off. He was the DH most of those games.
Whoever the backup catcher is, he isn’t likely going to catch any more than any other typical backup catcher.
So where does this put Alonso’s price tag?
Alonso was a 3.4 war to Naylors 3.1 they seem similar but not a direct comp.
I don’t think Alonso was ever going to get anymore than 5/100. This confirms that guess.
If anything, Polar Bear might get even less since he has no baserunning or defense to contribute. I don’t think his market will be as robust as he thinks.
Yeah. I don’t understand the narrative around Alonso being an elite player. The power is real but that’s his only plus tool.
If you’re going to have just one plus tool…
Maybe but I think fans and front offices have a completely different perspective on that
Fans over value it, yes
Let’s not run down Pete too much.
His career batting average is still .253, which in these modern times isn’t too bad. Naylor is obviously a little better at .269, but Pete has a better on base to the tune of .341 to Naylor’s .329. Point is, when you combine Pete’s prodigious power ( he had a league leading 41 doubles to go with his 38 homers this season) with a respectable batting average and solid on base, he’s not a simple one trick pony.
Also, Alonso is bad defensively, no doubt. League leading 10 errors at first and a -9 DRS this season. But last season, Naylor put up 9 errors and a -6 DRS at first. He’s not much of a threat for a gold glove himself, although he is better than Alonso, low bar as that may.
At the end of the day, Alonso is 2 and a half years older than Naylor. Josh will be 28 at the start of the next season while Pete will be 31. That will be the biggest factor in his reduced expectations.
@WillisVonGillis
Only Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber have hit more homeruns than Alonso over the past five seasons (195 total). In ’25, 19 teams did not have a single player hit over 30 homeruns. Alonso’s plus tool can transform an entire lineup.
I think he’s worth $30M right now. I just don’t think it will hold up longer than 4 years.
“Only Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber have hit more homeruns than Alonso over the past five seasons (195 total).”
Twenty three players have a higher wRC+. Which is still fewer than one per team
Eighteen players have produced more runs offensively.
Forty three have produced more fWAR.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
“I think he’s worth $30M right now”
I don’t
Last year was one of his better seasons and he was worth 3.6 fWAR. With 1 WAR being worth about $8 million, he produced just under $30 million last year
FanGraphs projects him for 2.6 fWAR next year. That’s (2.6 * $8) about $20 million, not $30 million.
For reference, Ohtani, whom the Dodgers paid $46 million this year, produced 8.6 fWAR which was worth about (8.6 * $8) $69 million. What a bargain. Especially when you consider how much money he brings in though advertising.
Pete might help with that a bit in NY, but I would be very surprised if it was to the to tune of $10 million a year
I think 1.0 fWAR is closer to $10M now but WAR/$ isn’t linear for all teams depending on where they see themselves on the win curve to make the postseason.
“I think 1.0 fWAR is closer to $10M now”
FanGraphs has Alonso producing $28.7 million last year
fangraphs.com/players/pete-alonso/19251/stats?posi…
“depending on where they see themselves on the win curve”
Sure. Teams on the bubble should be more willing to overpay
I mean teams overspend on free agents all the time. His value in via WAR might only be ~$28M but if you have multiple teams bidding for his services that number goes up
Pete is a great power hitter and there’s significant value in that. But the biggest question to me is what to he and Boras think he’s worth?
Because if that’s 6/150MM+ he’s probably going to have a hard time finding a deal. I really think there is a good chance he’s taking another pillow deal like he did with the Mets.
I think there’s a non-zero chance he does another pillow deal. He signed the first deal to be ideally situated in the position he’s in now with a better season behind him.
We should probably not be discussing other dudes plus tools so candidly.
I don’t think that’s his goal but if he’s looking for 6 years at a premium value all winter and it doesn’t materialize—that is the likely alternative. It depends on what his expectations are and what value he’s willing to take on a LT deal:
Ford “showed himself to be ready for the big leagues”? He has 8 regular season PAs and one more in the post season. He has caught a total of 14 major league innings. He hasn’t proven anything. If he is ready, including handling a largely veteran pitching staff, they should give him as much time at catcher as possible. Raleigh is a terrific defensive catcher. But he’s too good a hitter to risk behind the plate if you have a good alternative.
And how is he going to prove anything more in the minors??? His time has come. If some of you guys had your way, Nick Kurtz would still be down in AAA, “proving” he’s legit.
4/118M Alonso. The last year being low $$.
Pete was looking for a seven-year deal, and probably higher AAV. Stearns played chicken with him last offseason and now they need pitching so I’m not so sure he’s coming back to the Mets now.
I think they’ll be shopping for rotation depth and/or a mid rotation arm. McLean and Sproat looked good. I would expect some level of bounce back from Senga and Manea.
I don’t think it precludes them from bringing Alonso back. I just don’t think he’s worth what he’s asking.
Oh yeah I agree, Pete is going to have drop his asking price. If he does, then there’s a good chance Mets bring him back.
Either way whoever signs Alonso has to pay the Scott Boras tax. I think Alonso goes for a shorter term deal at a higher AAV with opt outs.
I wonder if Naylor signing might be the start of a small trend. Some players, especially in the “solid B+” segment, might be thinking that holding out “to see what the market has” might entail risks they don’t want to take–especially with looming CBA negotiations. Take the good money, sign the contract, move on. The two year with an opt-out isn’t worth as much if you lose 1/4 of your 2027 salary.
The looming CBA negotiations are probably a big factor. As you said, sometimes job security is better than risking for a few more dollars.
Wouldn’t read it for this-a mutual known good fit and player willing to return as long as it wasn’t a lowball.
That aside, the BP free agent arms better not get too cute. Teams are using SPs in playoffs when it matters and BP can be a cheaper assembly line for reg season. Can start being like RBs in football. The ones who log lot of appearances (used up/spit out by old team) often fall off bad next season/onward and MLB clubs recognize they may get a “tired” version. That’s why less used bouncebacks or failed starters can be cheaper and better performance for BP straight up than paying premium for BP guy’s career year or 2 stretch.
Love the idea of Ford on the team but I think he is most valuable in a trade. A starting IF or RF would be amazing.
Many players in Ford’s position never have higher value. Pittsburgh has gone through more than one highly touted catcher on their own recently. With only poor results to show
So you mean to tell me that Ford headlining in a package for Skenes is maybe more than a pipe dream?
Any Skenes trade is a pipe dream imo. His value exceeds sane offers
McLain+ for Ford. Reds move off Stevenson
Now that’s a pipe dream!
Solid signing of Naylor by the M’s.
Ford is likely trade bait, or if not I’d like to see him in AAA for the first half of the season.
Don’t treat Ford like the Pirates did with Henry Davis. Find a consistent playing position, then let him develop ⚾
Would Harry ford be enough for a guy like Cade smith? Is Mason miller on the table in San Diego?
Don’t believe that SD traded DeVries (and more) for Miller so they could deal him for a lesser prospect.
I don’t know much about Harry Ford (22, 98 wRC+ projection from FG, 50 FV, blocked by Raleigh) but I do know a bit about Daulton Rushing (24, 98 wRC+ projection, 60 FB, blocked by Will Smith).
Makes sense to me to trade Ford. Maybe Rushing too.
There’s some talk of moving Smith to 1B once Freeman’s contract expires, so the team could keep Rushing as a backup for 2 more years and when letting him take over as catcher later. I get it. But unless you think he’s really going to be that guy, it makes more sense to me to trade him now and worry about a catcher later.
Unless Raleigh is ticketed for DH pretty soon, and I don’t think that’s the case, I’d be inclined to move on from Ford.
I tend to push back on people trying to trade Ford (unless it’s in some deal for a legit ace or star player) mainly because Cal is getting older and has caught a ton of games in his career. Mariners ought to try saving Cal’s legs at least a little bit more than they have been. Ford can probably work his way into 2-3 games a week, allowing them to not only rest Cal for the long haul of his contract, but also adequately develop Ford at the big league level.
I agree fully w/Beer can. Plus what if Cal were injured
Please trade Ford to the Rays.
Am I the only one surprised it’s only for 90 mil. I thought for sure he was going to break 100. I would have thought closer to 120 than 90.
He produced a career high 3.1 bWAR this season, in part buoyed by those hard to fathom 30 stolen bases. He’s only had one other season where he even broke 2 bWAR. He’s about 15-20% above average bat with little defensive value. If and when pitchers start looking over their shoulders and his stolen bases drop back down, he’ll be back to a 2 bWAR player.
The contract seems fine.
Is it 90? I have been seeing 90-100 range.
It should mandatory, or at least common practice, to report all contacts in present value terms. Even if they aren’t exact
For example, Naylor is expected to sign a 5-year, $100 million ($84 million PV) deal with Seattle.
If Ohtani’s contract had been reported as “10 years, $460 million ($375 million PV) with $440 million deferred)” people who don’t understand finance wouldn’t be flipping out about… Whatever it is they flip out about.
It would also be a lot easier to compare it to, say, Juan Soto’s contact (15 years, $765 million ($550 million PV)”.
This is about MLBTR knowing their audience and not wanting articles to be technical like FG.
You’re not speaking very highly of the audience here. Maybe you’re right though
Though MLBTR has a history of articles like this
Dodgers & Deferrals: A Misguided Focus – MLB Trade Rumors share.google/V6JTXNtwD6csma5DK
where they seem to be trying to inform their audience.
I’d say that if you have an audience as big as MLBTR’s, you have an obligation to make them more informed.
“people who don’t understand finance wouldn’t be flipping out about… Whatever it is they flip out about.”
Oh they’ll still flip out about it.
Sigh…
…I know
Maybe a few fewer?
It would be very impressive to see the Mariners retain all of Naylor, Polanco, and Suarez. Although, I wonder if Suarez will want to go back? He seems to struggle hitting there more often than not. He likely would’ve cleared 50 homeruns if he had stayed in AZ, for example. Maybe he will prefer a more suitable offensive environment.
I like Okamoto and Murakami a lot more for Seattle than I like Suarez at this stage. Suarez is getting up there, turning 35 next year. Couple that with potentially high salary demands because he’s hit 49 homers and it’s a very risky deal. Not many players maintain that level of production into their mid-late 30s. The two 3Bs from Japan also come with their own risks, sure, but they’re much closer to prime age meaning that if they do adjust well to MLB pitching then they’re good to go for a longer term.
Okamoto combines excellent contact rates, low K%, and solid power into a well balanced hitting profile. For a Mariners lineup with a lot of swing-and-miss in it already, a player like Okamoto is the perfect contrast. Murakami’s a bit like early career Judge/Ohtani in that yes, he is going to strike out at least 25% of the time, but his power numbers and high BB% will more than make up for it.
I don’t feel Suarez would be a good signing. 3 reasons:
1. Strike outs
2. Projected cost
3. Age
I was never high on ford until this past season. Prospect fatigue….He progressed through minors young but never spectacular. This past season though, he performed well enough at the mlb level to project as an every day big leaguer. If cardinals or Rockies are serious about rebuilding- they should be all over Ms and ford
The Cardinals don’t have a whole lot the Mariners really need or want except for maybe Donovan, who likely won’t cost a Ford level prospect. The Rockies already have a very good young catcher in Goodman so I don’t see a fit there. If a Ford trade were to happen I think the most likely partner is Tampa Bay. They need a catcher, and have a good mix of players the Mariners could find a place for.
Arenado and Donovan. Could fit stl ate the salaries
I’d love them to swing a trade for Ketel Marte if he were willing to come back to where he started. It just seems like the perfect fit given his skill set/leadership ability. Mariners window opened and they are legit up the middle with an MVP caliber player behind the dish, Julio who can breakout and become a superstar at anytime in CF and it would really solidify it if Marte were at 2b.
“Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well.”
Come on, Deeds. Your writing is a disaster.