The 2025 season concluded with one of the most thrilling endings in a very long time (unless you are a Blue Jays fan), but now we’re in the Baseball Offseason, with a very long and cold winter ahead of us before there’s more baseball to watch.
We’re also in Hall of Fame season! This winter, BBWAA voters will decide whether any new players will be elected into the Hall. While there’s some exciting first time players on the ballot, there are also some very interesting ones returning for another year.
We’ll use Stathead, the Internet’s #1 Baseball Stats Search Engine, to take a look at three candidates returning to this year’s ballot. Let’s see why, or why not, they deserve a spot in Cooperstown.
Carlos Beltrán
Receiving over 70% of the vote in his third year on the ballot, Carlos Beltrán seems like the safest bet for induction in 2026. How did someone with just one top-10 MVP finish in his career become a Hall of Fame lock? Let’s dig into the numbers!
Beltrán provided elite offense at a premium defensive position. From age 21-33, years where his primary position was center field, Beltrán posted an .853 OPS. He had seven seasons with an OPS over .850 while primarily playing center field. In the last 50 years, only four other CFs had more .850 OPS seasons.
Then, there’s Beltrán work in the field. He had four seasons with at least 10 Rfield, the fielding component of WAR. Rfield is scaled to runs, meaning he contributed around 10 runs of value (equivalent to about one win) four separate times in his career. Since 1990, only 38 OFs have done that four times, most of whom don’t have anywhere near the offensive numbers that Beltrán has.
Putting it all together, Beltrán is one of eight OFs in the last 50 years to have three or more seasons with an OPS of .850 and at least 10 Rfield.
Chase Utley
Switching to the infield, Utley scored a respectable 39.8% in last year’s voting. He still has a ways to go to reach election, but the numbers show why his candidacy is growing.
From 2005-09, Utley posted a ridiculous 39.7 WAR. Individually, those were seasons of 7.3, 7.3, 7.8, 9.0, and 8.2. When your worst season in that span is equivalent to Cal Raleigh’s 2025, you must be doing something right.
How to put that in context? There’s a few ways of looking at Utley’s run here:
- From 2005-09, Utley ranked second in WAR, with only Albert Pujols producing more wins above replacement in that span
- Chase Utley ranks 13th all-time among hitters in WAR from age 26-30, his age in those seasons.
When you factor that those five seasons all had Utley as a top five player in WAR, something only six other 2B have done, it’s clear that he has a strong case for the Hall thanks to one of the 2000s’ most impressive peaks.
Félix Hernández
Speaking of peaks, Félix Hernández got 20.9% of the vote last year, as voters weighed whether or not his run as arguably the best pitcher in baseball was enough to counteract a career that was shorter than the average Hall of Fame pitcher.
King Félix won one Cy Young and finished in second two more times. In all three seasons, he had an ERA+ of 170 or better, meaning his ERA was 70% better than the average pitcher when you account for league and ballpark.
That, it turns out, is a very rare achievement. Only 11 pitchers in MLB history have had three or more seasons where they threw 200+ innings and posted a 170+ ERA+. Of the 11, six pitched before Integration. The other five? Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martínez, Greg Maddux, and Félix Hernández.
This is a sponsored post from Stathead Baseball.
Yes to Utley and Felix, probably not on their 1st ballot though.
No to Beltran, no to anyone involved that deeply with the Trashtros scandal.
Utley and Felix are very close but I never thought of them as hall of fame when they played
Classic hall of very good players
If Beltran retired before 2017 he is a slam dunk
This isn’t their first ballot.
im torn on beltran
1st ballot HOF #s
but he was part of the trash can cheaters
I lost a lot of respect for him for that incident and he is no longer one of my favorite players from his era because of what he did, but in the interest of fairness, we don’t have any evidence to suggest that what he accomplished during the peak of his career was fraudulent. It’s a black stain on his character so I get why we don’t want to celebrate him, but ultimately it’s not something that should keep him out. Now that he’s been on the ballot a few times I think he gets his due this year.
Oh i def think he’ll be voted in
Writers have short term memory loss. Thats why some want bonds & clemens in hof even tho they single handedly ruined baseball
That astros scandal was swept under the rug
By mlb, by media, by everyone except mayb some fans
Cheating is the worst thing you can do. Especially in the WS
All of the astros should have been suspended. Beltran altuve etc should never see hof. Instead it was a slap on the wrist. The managers/coaches are still working today
I mean for f sake curt schilling is a slam dunk hof’er and he got canceled bc of something he said?? Then 1000% beltran should not be in. And it hurts me to say that bc he had a tremendous career
This is, without a doubt, one of the best comments I’ve read. Maybe I’m bias because I’m a fan of Schilling from his days of pitching in Philly, but you are 100% correct in everything you said (and I’m not even an Astros hater; just think your feelings about lack of punishment and what it should’ve been were spot on).
While we don’t have any proof Beltran cheated during his peak, the scandal does still leave it wide open for speculation. That’s the big problem for me. He will likely still get in though.
Mostly because honestly, to me this is one of the weakest classes I’ve seen for awhile, to where it should leave it open for someone like Andruw jones to get in. Which isn’t to say that he doesn’t deserve it, just that in most other years he’d have stronger competition to take votes from him.
I’m a brewer fan, and as so rightfully don’t see Braun even lasting long on the ballot because of his scandal. But also feel Beltran should miss out because of his. But since Beltran got 70% last year, I’m assuming he’ll get in.
Of course you are absolutely free to speculate, I don’t blame you. But if he was doing anything like that throughout the duration of his career I’m pretty sure we would’ve heard about it by now. It didn’t take long for the Astros scandal to go from secret to open secret to blown wide open. I would be stunned if he was running similar schemes 20 years ago and to this day no one is any the wiser about it.
For Utley, five good years shouldn’t be enough to get you in the hall. I’d be interested to read an article about the veterans committee guys this year. What do the numbers suggest for more dark horse candidates like Delgado and Valenzeula?
Utley had 5 MVP caliber years, and 5 more at an all-star level. That he never got many votes for MVP has more to do with writers and their biases then him as a player. That said, while I’d vote for him, I understand why Small-Hall guys wouldn’t. He’s borderline, and as a Met’s fan I’ll root against him!
Looking at his stats, he had more quality seasons than I remembered. I suppose I’m just not a fan of the “peak” argument which the author was promoting.
Yes on Beltran, YES on Andruw Jones (who isn’t listed in this article) and yes eventually for Utley despite his runs and rbi totals being surprisingly low.
I’m not 100% convinced about King Felix yet.
Felix was the best pitcher in baseball for about 3 years and had a run of dominance for about 10. He is far more deserving based on in game ability than say Sabathia. But he just didn’t pitch for as long to gain the totals. But he is far more deserving than others that have gone in because they were less for longer.
I think he will eventually be viewed in the way some of the modern pitchers will be; as a Ferrari that burns hot for a while but then burns out and never achieves the previous length requirements to get in. He might benefit from the new way of thinking on HOF pitching we are seeing today.
Oh,I fully knew the logic behind the argument for his inclusion, and I remember his career quite well including his dominant stretch, but I am still not convinced that he should be included nor some of the others who made it in. I also don’t agree with many of the omissions. I don’t think anyone will ever fully agree with every selection.
I think what you’re missing on Felix though is that his career ended shorter than Sabathia because his last 3 seasons were far from good. He even did take a crack at continuing after those 3 seasons, and still didn’t make a major league team out of spring training.
What HELPS Felix’s case is actually that he ended his career shorter, rather than keeping on trying to make teams and possibly then making one and having another terrible year. At the pace he was on, I think if he had played a couple more years, he’d of likely played himself out of being on the fringe.
He had a terrific run of dominance. But he definitely faded and didn’t show much signs of rebounding.
If Jones is in, shouldn’t Hunter also be in?
Jones: .254/.337/.486, 111 OPS+, 434 HR, 1289 RBI, 152 SB, 1933 hits, 1204 runs scored, 10 gold gloves, 1 silver slugger, 5 ASGs, 1 top 10 MVP finish (2nd)
Hunter: .277/.331/.461, 110 OPS+, 353 HR, 1391 RBI, 195 SB, 2452 hits, 1296 runs scored, 9 gold gloves, 2 silver sluggers, 5 ASGs, 1 top 10 MVP finish (6th)
I see no way only one of those resumes can be worthy and not the other. They were both awesome players that I loved watching as a kid during their primes, but I think they are far more “Hall of Very Good” type of players than guys who need to be enshrined in Cooperstown.
Interesting argument for sure, although according to bWAR, Jones is as roughly as much better than Torii Hunter is, as Hunter is better than Harold Baines.
Oh wait a minute, Baines is in the Hall if Fame already, isn’t he?
Interesting, didn’t realize Baines’ WAR was that low. According to BBREF the average WAR for a batter in the HOF is 67. Comparing favorably to the 165th-best position player in Cooperstown is probably more of an argument that Baines shouldn’t be in himself more than it proves the strength of Hunter or Jones’ candidacies. But yes, if you don’t mind the hall being watered down a bit both should be in if Baines got in.
Hunter is truly an underrated player but while he won the gold gloves just like Jones he was not absurdly, historically elite beyond comparison like Andrew Jones. He was just a darn good CF.
Integrity is part of the criteria for Hall of Fame, no? It’s why Pete Rose, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and other “controversial” players have been passed on. If the writers want to stay consistent, then Carlos Beltran will probably be held to that standard.
I think Beltran will get in, I don’t think the writers will keep their “integrity” standard. And this is why I don’t like the system in place.
Couldn’t have said it better.
I think the integrity argument is lame and overblown. People have different standards of conduct they’re willing to accept and tolerate, and within reason that is okay. We’re kidding ourselves if we think everyone already in the hall is a saint. I have no problem with the number of guys from decades ago who were world class drunks or took drugs while they were playing, but someone who is more of a teetotaler might wish to hold the same “integrity” argument against Mickey Mantle, for example. Personally I prefer the conversation to stay centered on baseball and not judgements on whose version of morality is better than whomever else’s.
Of course, big gigantic Grand Canyon sized caveat applies when the guy in question had integrity issues that call into question the legitimacy of his accomplishments in baseball. Fraudulent achievements shouldn’t be celebrated. That’s exactly the case with the steroid era guys, Rose, etc. (Although I would also argue some of the steroid era guys – Bonds, Clemens, Ramirez in particular – were accomplished enough before they started juicing that they should still be inducted anyway). Beltran running a cheating scheme as a 40 year old doesn’t change anything about what he did between ’99 and ’13, and that was absolutely a HOF-worthy run.
Beltran Yes, Utley Yes, Hernandez No.
When is the Veterans committee or whatever it is called nowadays going to get Thurman Munson in the H.oF ?!?? Still ranked 12th at the catching position in war. Roy winner ,MVP winner,7 of his 9 complete seasons with MVP votes ,2 time WS champion,to go along with a .357 average in the playoffs. 1st Yankee captain since Lou Gehrig. As a Red Sox fan I couldn’t stand him , but the man deserves enshrinement.
Who should be in the Hall of Fame who is on the ballot.
Carlos Beltran 70 war, Alex Rodriguez 116 war 696 home runs, Chase Utley 64 war, Andrew Jones 62 war 10 GG, Manny Ramirez 69 war 555 home runs, Andy Pettitte 60 war, Bobby Abreu 60 war 395 OBP. Omar Vizquel 11 GG 2877 hits, Mark Buehrle 59 war perfect game, Cole Hamels 59 war. Note war is baseball-reference. Also, note not baseing just on war, these were all time Greats in this generation.
Abreu needs more consideration. The stats speak for themself.
If King Felix gets in but Johan Santana didn’t I just can’t understand personally.
Chase Utley’s counting stats are low because of the Phillies’ egregious decision to not give him an everyday job until June 2025, midway through his age 26 season. This is why he doesn’t have 2000 hits or 300 home runs, it was beyond his control so I don’t think he should be kept out of the Hall of Fame for that reason.
Wow. To have those stats and not have been given a full time job until June 2025. Amazing what he did in only a half of a season.
Well, they let him bat in every position of the lineup in every game and the games were 360 innings long.
Before being so condescending, you should check to see if you are right. Until Placido Polanco was traded to Detroit, they had Utley and Polanco platooning at second base and David Bell starting at third. You can look at the lineups yourself baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2005-lineups.shtm…
Before answering you should proof read your post. You indicated he didn’t get the job until 2025 not 2005. So yeah I am right
Well he didn’t have a real great season in the minors until age 24 and they did call him up and let him play but he wasn’t particularly good offensively. And he played plenty at age 25 but was not the same type of player he became. He seems to have just put it all together at age 26.
If FELIX was on ANY other team for his 10 yr dominance he would have 5 Cy Young’s and 100 more wins. Go watch his PERFECT GAME and tell me that’s not a HOF’er
Felix was dominant and lost a million 1-0 games. Just like the CY year, the wins and losses were not on him, but a crappy team that played in Southeast Alaska. Beltran’s stats are worthy, but if he gets in, then you’d have to put Altuve in and I don’t ever want to see that happen.
Mostly, though, it doesn’t matter because the writers are hopeless. Did we ever find out who didn’t vote for Ichiro? I bought toilet paper for his house and everything.
Utley Yes, Felix Yes, Beltran, no. Numbers and stuff yes but being involved in the astros scandal takes it away
Beltran probably will, but shouldn’t, get in. The integrity clause should keep him out.
As for first-time guys, Hamels is the closest, but not quite good enough. I think he sticks around 3-4 years and then falls off. Most of the rest will be one-and-dones. Just a weak class.
Personally I am a “Yes” for Beltran, King Felix, Man Ram, and K-Rod.
I’m not fully convinced by Andruw Jones. I can see the reasons why some say yes to him, but I lean no and my reason for that being that if you look at their numbers side-by-side, if you put Jones in then arguably I think you also have to put Torii Hunter in, and Hunter to me is a more clear cut no. But if anyone wants to try and sway my opinion I am open to listening to arguments.
I have one argument for Andruw Jones, aside from his stellar defense in centerfield for so many years. I believe it was the 2005 season with the Braves, where Andruw pretty much carried that team, he hit 50 bombs if I remember correctly, and he was the primary reason the Braves, not only made the playoffs that year, but he helped them extend their division title run. That to me is valuable and gives him and edge. That’s my best case for Andruw Jones other than the amazing defense.
Yeah I’m looking at the ’05 Braves right now since you bring them up. Jones was not a one man show in terms of value – Furcal had 6.5 WAR himself, plus Chipper Jones and Marcus Giles added 4 each, and Francoeur added 3 WAR and was top 5 in ROY voting. But in terms of production, yes you are right. He had 51 homers and 128 RBI. Nobody else topped 21 or 78. No doubt he carried them that year.
Hunter never had to put a team on his back like Jones did the ’05 Braves, but his relative value stats like OPS+ or Rbat+ had him mid-teens to 20-some percent better than league average deep into his 30s whereas Jones basically fell off a cliff on his 30th birthday.
So even though Jones can boast having had the higher peak, Hunter’s superior longevity makes up for quite a bit of that difference. So I’m just not sure the end results are differentiated enough from each other to make one or the other stand out.
I respect that, and I can agree that both Hunter and Jones are borderline candidates. I can definitely see the merit of your argument. There are other better players that have a better case to get into the Hall of Fame, not counting the steroid users. Joey Votto would probably fall as another borderline case, or someone older like Kenny Lofton.
Votto will be a really interesting case when he comes up. Probably the perfect poster boy for a rate stats darling but doesn’t quite have the gaudy counting stats. I think his numbers are just close enough he will make it in. He was too widely respected around the game to fall short, imo.
I saw plenty of Votto when he came into town to face the Cubs, and he had a stretch where he was a very difficult out. Yes, I agree it will be interesting to see when his time comes what the writers decide. I gotta say this was a nice conversation about the Hall of Fame, usually I don’t engage because people get “difficult” so I just dodge the topic. So thank you for the healthy back and forth!
Back at you, it is always nice when people can talk through a topic or differing opinions without being extremists about it!
Always fun to set up arbitrary goalposts (threw 200+ innings and posted a 170+ ERA+) then try a mic-drop by listing the other five who cleared said arbitrary bar as though that clinches the deal.