This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).
It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
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Durbin, IKF, Romy G, Story, Narvaez and Rafaela are all going to have a worse offensive seasons.
Just another Red Sox hit piece from MLBTR.
Personally I think Boston had a fine off season.
I also think Boston had a pretty solid off season. And I also think projection systems are to be taken with a shaker of salt. I’d say we revisit this conversation in September and see which of these prognosticators has any sense of accuracy. Personally I think they’re all kind of garbage because baseball is probably the least predictable sport there is.
However they can offer a nice splash of reality in contrast with the normal ball washing that MLB Network and other media outlets offer.
Go Sox.
Bear in mind that all of these projections are based on the lovely sport of gambling. Fancy baseball leagues rely on them but I doubt very much that baseball front offices give them more than a glance at best. Remember the 1967 Red Sox were 100-1? Did anyone see YAZ coming? And yet he had already led the league in OPS. Huh.
Individual stats are nice but performance is not the same when the stats are the same. When YAZ hit 44 home runs in 1967, almost every single one had an impact on the game’s outcome. That just doesn’t happen by chance.
Champions virtually always have “underperforming” players on their roster. Someone will surely have a bad season, someone else will surely have a good season. It tends to balance out. Taking predicted performances and mashing them into wins and losses? Not the easiest of exercises.
I’d definitely take the Sox making the playoffs at 60:1 if I gambled on sports, but might take a bit to see how all the pieces sort out, with an entirely new IF excepting Story and a mostly new starting staff.
I don’t consider it a hit piece to answer questions from people. I’m not a Red Sox fan and don’t have a dog in that race.
I also haven’t created any player projection systems myself. I use them because that’s the best thing we’ve got. If you’ve got something better, we’d love to see it.
Durbin – 105 last year, all systems except Steamer call for regression. Why are they wrong?
IKF – Mostly immaterial because he’s never been much of a hitter. Question was about offense and he ain’t providing it. You disagree?
Romy – Natural to project regression from 123 which is why all systems do it. My point was more that he’s on the short side of a platoon so he inherently can’t have a big offensive impact. You disagree?
Story – 101 last year, every system calls for modest decline in his age-33 season. I acknowledged he hit well from June forward. Is he a 110-120 lock for you? Why?
Narvaez – 97 last year, every system calls for decline. You disagree?
Rafaela – 91 last year. Steamer and ZiPS call for 95-100. ATC is at 89, and the system that had the best projections, The Bat X, says 88. He’s 25 years old and if you think he’ll hold serve or improve, sure, that seems totally possible.
I also didn’t say that they’re “all going to have a worse offensive seasons.” Looking at each of them individually, that’s mostly my expectation, but the odds that one does the same or better are probably pretty good.
I don’t care at all what happens with the Red Sox offense…I like interesting things to happen. If some guys defy what our best prediction tools say…sure, that seems fun? I’m not going to make up answers to questions with no basis though, and these tools are definitely more predictive than looking at last year’s results and expecting the same.
Aaaaand boom goes the dynamite.
A case of rabbit ears Tim?
Stunt on these h*es Tim!
For some real good insight on the Tony Clark situation, check out Nothing Personal with David Samson on YouTube.
Joe – USA Today is reporting it’s the wife’s sister, which makes it less worse for most. it’s easier to replace your wife than it is your brother.
Samson doesn’t seem to think that’s the tipping point. Though it’s going to be an awkward Thanksgiving for the Clark family this year.
Fever – sounds like already replacing the wife is part of the problem. ..
Hey FPG, I know you can’t read this because you muted me, but in case you check the site without logging in I just want to say I really like your new profile pic…you aced it. Wishing for no Spring Training injuries for your team.
It has been contended, the guy who has taken over the reins of MLBPA, Bruce Meyer, either helped cover up the Clark shenanigans, or was neck deep in them.
My personal opinion is Scott Boras holds undue influence over the MLBPA Executive Committee, and the idea of having an outsider step into the process at this time was a non-starter due to the uncertainty of that individual’s allegiance to Boras’ agenda.
Meyer may be a shady character, but he’s our shady character mentality.
Where has that been contended?
Boras’ goals are generally aligned with the players; he’d probably make a pretty good executive director himself except that too many people (including some players probably) hate him. Larry Fleisher was an agent throughout his time as exec director of the NBA and players were fine with it.
I read it on the Substack “Baseball Nerd.”
People love to portray Boras as if he is some cartoonist super-villian, when 99 times out 100 he gets a player precisely what they are looking for. He is just damn good at what he does.
As reported on The Baseball Nerd Substack:
Meyer will have to answer the following question, “He either knew about Clark’s inappropriate relationship and allowed it to happen, or he lacked basic oversight of his organization.”
FBI investigation was going on for more than a year, and the internal investigation has been ongoing for 8 months.
He’s a super villain to the lower 90% payroll players in MLB. He’s great for the Epstein class of players.
Overall I really like the reply to the Red Sox question. I bet the 26th-ranked infield was a real eye-opener for those who believe the Sox will run away with the division, as was the wRC+ for the lineup.
I disagree about the possibility of another major addition to the infield, not unless it involves trimming a current Red Sox player’s salary from the payroll.
Romy looks like he could be out for a while. It would be a major bummer if Mayer gets sent down so IKF can play every day.
A major injury to Gray or Rafaela wouldn’t make a difference at all.
Fever, rankings at this point mean very little. Story’s defensive metrics would look better if not for September when he seemed to be tired. If he performs well, the infield defense will be solid.
I agree with you both. I don’t put much stock into projections and rankings this time of year. We have no idea how guys will look until we see how they look.
Marcelo has looked good enough in the minors to deserve a crack at breaking camp with a starting job. However if it turns out he needs more seasoning, he is better suited in AAA than the bench. If it comes to that then I think it definitely forces their hand and they’ll look for infield help at the deadline while probably trying to survive with some combo of Monasterio, Eaton, and IKF until then.
I don’t get why the projections are so down on Durbin, for a guy moving from a solid pitchers park to one of the most conductive environs for run scoring in all of baseball, I don’t see it. He seems like he is capable of doing enough to be around league average or slightly above, with a little boost from park factors. Plus as a guy more prone to putting the ball in play than he is to strike out, I think he will be a good fit for this lineup. Lot of issues with whiffers. He should not be one of them.
Dirty – Marcelo looked great in the majors last year too, in the field anyway.
Durbin was waaaaay better at home than on the road, that’s why they said his numbers were inflated (.800 OPS vs .646)
Let’s hope Driveline and the Sox coaching staff doesn’t screw with Durbin’s approach.
I put stock into projections because there is nothing better. If there was something better, I’d use that!
I don’t know the inner workings of each projection system offhand, but my guess is that most of them are down on Durbin repeating because he was among the worst in the game in things like exit velo, barrel rate, hard hit rate. It’s not the end-all be-all, but using that data is going to give you better projections on average than ignoring it.
If I really had a lot of time, I’d look for players with 4th percentile exit velo, 12th percentile barrel rate, 98th percentile contact, etc, and see if any of them were 5% or better than league average hitters for multiple years in a row.
Even for Luis Arraez, Statcast was cranking out expected batting averages of .310 and .287 the last couple years based on his batted balls. Durbin didn’t hit baseballs in a way to suggest he should hit around .300, not that he couldn’t.
As a longtime reader and fan of the site, honored to have you jump into a conversation thread I’m on, Tim – thanks for all the work you do for us!
Totally understand why the projections exist and I don’t fault you or the media for leaning on them. You are right, you need something to go off of and in your position it is the best from a set of imperfect options. I know the people coming up with the formulas are putting tons of both baseball and math/statistical knowledge into it, and that’s awesome. The reason I don’t fully buy into them though is because one, I feel like there are always some guys who just always manage to get results no matter what their Statcast profile or other stats suggest they should have done. Secondly I feel like they consistently undersell what young players are capable of. After an offseason of training, a young guy might be more ready to break out than his data from last year would suggest.
Not that I think Durbin is going to have some monster year per se, but just that as a 25 year old he has probably made some improvements to his approach over the winter, but do we have an effective way to bake that into projections without just making stuff up? Maybe the answer to that is yes and I’m just ignorant to it, but if the projections are based entirely on an extrapolation of last year’s results, well, that’s why I don’t fully trust it.
FPG – ah, that explains it. I didn’t look at his splits. Haven’t heard anyone mention him as a home/road or lefty/righty splits guy so I hadn’t checked under the hood for that stuff yet.
Agreed on Mayer. Loved his glove. His bat, I was starting to like up until he got hurt. It was a slow start but just going by the eye test it seemed like he was starting to find his stroke and get more comfortable. Hoping he has a great spring to use as a launching point for a productive season.
Splits were just small samples size bad luck or maybe he can’t sleep in hotel beds and they can get him a mattress topper and asmr or something. Lil grandpa’s old cough medicine. Milwaukee isn’t that favorable of a park for him.
However statcast says he would have only hit 5 hrs in Boston. Should make up for it with doubles though.
Dirty – Do you take into account The Sophomore Jinx? ;O)
Dirty – I’ll dive a little deeper on Durbin ….
His OBP was inflated because he led the league with 24 HBP (another Don Baylor?)
His Infield Fly Ball % was very high.
His Hard Hit rate was very low.
And his Exit Velo was very low.
But he’s a contact hitter, he doesn’t strike out much because he’s not swinging for the fences on every pitch, which explains the low HHR and EV … so I’m not worried about it. The Sox needed more contact hitters, they got one with him.
Indeed, I’m not expecting a ton of home runs from him. Maybe 5-10. Anything beyond that is gravy but certainly not going to bank on getting it. I agree I think he’ll be a doubles machine, so if you get guys like Duran and Anthony on in front of him he can still be a very productive bat without hitting 30 bombs.
Absolutely not! Good vibes only.
Precisely – may not hit a ton of them hard but that’s fine if he is a guy who knows how to actually hit. Having legitimate plus contact skills means he could be a guy whose real production outpaces his projections. I don’t care if Statcast or certain models hate him because they can’t project him properly, as long as he can hit at a decent rate and keep the line moving.
Even on his outs, balls that are put in play are still preferable to strikeouts most of the time. At least gives you the chance of getting on with an error. Whiffs and GIDP killed this team last year so adding a guy who shouldn’t do a whole lot of either is a sneaky good way to improve the lineup at the margins since they were unable to find a traditional slugger.
FPG – that profile reminds me a LOT of Iglesias, who when he came up in boston nobody said would ever have any sort of career.
Somehow, he silently did just that and carved himself out a nice career.
But he never hit HRs, didnt have power, just got on base and found a way to hit the balls where they werent.
GaSox – I was young back then, but I remember Jose as a Mark Belanger type …. couldn’t hit, but his glove would keep him on the team. Pretty amazing Belanger lasted 18 years with a .580 OPS
I think Durbin is going to be a better hitter than Jose, but I’d prefer he play 2B. I really like the fact he had 24 HBP in only 136 games. He’s the type of guy who will do anything, including sacrificing his body, to win. The fact he’s taking all those HBP at 5’5″ is impressive, no wonder he was a fan favorite in Milwaukee.
Wow looking up iglesias, I didn’t realize Montas was on the Red Sox …. they could have used him in 2021!
And Iglesias, for a guy who they said wouldn’t hit a lick, had some years with very nice batting averages! Certainly better than nothing.
Dirty – .915 OPS for the ’21 Sox!!! One of Bloom’s best moves.
dewey – I think rankings are an indication of how teams are perceived, but I agree it has little to do with how the season will actually play out. Can’t predict many things, especially injuries.
I agree with you on Story, if his lack of stamina is an age thing then that’s a concern. I’m in the Story 2B camp, but it sure seems like the Sox already decided he’s playing SS this season. I’ve heard chatter he didn’t want to move back to 2B.
But yeah, the infield defense is definitely improved.
I think it was the long season after being away for so long. That said, he looked great at second a few years back so I’m wondering why he wouldn’t be on board if the team felt it was the best way to put out a lineup.
Maybe being on the team and watching Xander get his way, and then watching Devers remain the 3B gave him the idea that the team doesn’t want to insist on what’s best for the team. Those two didn’t so why should I?
styme – Xander was the better defensive shortstop in 2022 because Story couldn’t throw. He was injured when he signed with the Sox, and eventually had surgery.
Story is playing SS maybe because the Red Sox have finally learned about treating veterans with respect?
dewey – I think it’s a pride thing. Veterans typically don’t get replaced at a position by 1-year players. We don’t even know if Mayer will start the season with the Red Sox.
How would losing a 3-WAR player make no difference at all?
Tim – The logjam in the outfield. Right now outfield and starting pitching are positions of strength, that was my reasoning. Sure we would miss Rafaela’s defense, but Roman/Duran/Abreu patrolling the outfield is better than most other teams.
As for Rafaela’s offense, he had the 2nd-worst OPS of every qualified player in MLB since the All-Star Break. … and worst wRC+ in MLB too. Pitchers figured him out, and I’m skeptical he’ll be able to adjust this season due to his propensity for swinging at everything.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
I think those four are generally all going to be used as regulars, perhaps with Abreu sitting against lefties. They all project to be worth at least 2.5 WAR or so. If one has a major injury, do they have a 2.5 player who is subbing in?
Tim – It’s truly hard to predict which way things will go. The biggest factors will be Casas and Campbell.
Cora has repeatedly stated he wants Abreu to play every day, and Duran has continued to decline against LHP so I wouldn’t be surprised if he rides the bench a bit. Cora also wants Campbell in the outfield. Also Casas will likely start the season in the minors, but if he returns to 2023 form he will be called up.
So to answer your question, if one of Rafaela/Duran/Abreu/Roman has a major injury, I can see Campbell spending time at DH and in the OF. He can be that 2.5 WAR player. I can also see Contreras and Casas switching off between 1B and DH.. Casas can be that 2.5 WAR player.
It’s a deep team, they won’t be scrambling to replace injured players this season like they’ve done in the past. Lots of internal options at basically every position.
Fever, Campbell? Unless he surprises big time or the Sox ownership insists on him making the roster, he belongs in Worcester to start the year. It’s why I would have signed Canha who could have been released in May if he showed nothing and Campbell showed he destroyed a promotion.
dewey – I wrote elsewhere that I expect KC to start the season in the minors with Casas.
Tim was asking what happens if one of the 4 outfielders sustains a serious injury. I see KC as the callup in that situation. They are not gonna give up on him unless he really, really bombs in the minors.
Fever, part of the answer has to be increased opportunities and playing time, thus greater war, for the remaining 3 OFers id imagine
SOB – We’ve been through this before. I can see your posts, I didn’t mute you. I don’t have the option to reply to any of your posts.
Thanks for the kind words, I wish all the best for your Mariners. An ALCS between the Red Sox and M’s would be awesome.
I understand the reticence about a lineup that needs to stack together three hits to score. That said, it does appear that the lack of pop can be overruled or omega by a solid approach at the plate from top to bottom.
But, that starting pitching better be solid all year, and looks like we’ll need health and lack of any regression with the bullpen.
My biggest fear is Cora botching the lineup (offensively and defensively) on a consistent basis because of the infield carousel Breslow has bestowed on him.
I dont think the playoffs are a lock, as stated in the article, chances are sitting around 60% right now.
Sad, at least he cant keep overplaying Hamilton
The other day, Wilbon was saying the Phillies should trade Bryce Harper. He would potentially be the bat they need and his leadership in the dugout is top-notch.
And no one in Boston would be happier to see him than Johnathan Papelbon!!!
olm – Harper is Yoshida’s idol ;O)
Harper is a superstar one of the biggest. Even bigger in Philly. Attendance is great. He has no trade. They just brought the old gang back. Going to ride it until the wheels fall off.
When the Angels are out of it by July…. trade Yoshida and a top 5 prospect for Trout and his full contract…. plug him in as DH for next 3 to 4 seasons…… and figure out what to do with his contract in the off season… maybe rework it with some deferrals.
Mike Trout is no longer “Mike Trout.” His best days are.behind him.
You gave Yosh that awful contract now live with it.
Trout loves that California life and still thinks he is a cf. Angels want a superstar and 1 team hof.
Cooperdooper7
trade Yoshida and a top 5 prospect for Trout and his full contract….
==========================
Sarcasm?
Finally, someone figured out where i was going with that….. nice job JoeBrady.
MLB doesn’t seem to understand that in order for the small market teams to keep up payroll wise, with the poor TV contracts that they receive, they would have to raise ticket prices even more. That in return would mean fewer fans coming to the ballparks. I love baseball, but I just can not afford to go to as many games as I used to with the sky high prices for tickets, parking and then getting gouged on food and drink prices at the ballpark . Add to that not being able to see much of the game because everyone is standing up blocking your view by looking at their phones and talking to the person next to them or coming and leaving in the middle of an at-bat. I will stay at home and watch or listen to it on the radio.
It seems to me that the Red Sox are starting to look more like how the rays do things, with money, and less like how they used to. More stock in pitching and defense. In my opinion, this is great for long seasons like they are in baseball. Where it hurts you is in the post season. You switch from 5 man rotation to a 3 man rotation and now you don’t have that leg up on everyone. Being able to get that clutch home run or offensive spurt against a good pitching team is what will prevent the Sox from getting far in the postseason.
Sometimes that one star hitter is enough though.
Remember that ALCS when it seemed like.nobody on either side was getting offense neither the red sox nor the tigers…. except.for papi. He was a monster. But everyone else it feels like wasnt much above the Mendoza line.
I agree with that and believe you’re referring to 2013. If you are, the only thing I would disagree with that is we had a much more powerful lineup then and that’s what I’m referring too. Imagine facing that with the current line up we have now….. who’s going to get those clutch hits? This is why I believe the rays are usually in the playoff race, but fail to advance, other than 2008 when they actually had a powerful line up. 2020 season is a wash.
Crazy how much they flubbed the Devers situation. Don’t even have Bregman anymore lol Yeah, he’s not a good defensive player but was still putting up great numbers at 3B. Would be a perfect fit there as the big bat they need.
Bob Sacamano 310
Crazy how much they flubbed the Devers situation.
=========================
It looks to me like they downgraded from Devers to Durbin and used the savings to add Suarez and IKF.
Sigh…oh Timmy D at it again. TL;DR at the bottom.
Saying the lineup is weak because several players project below 100 wRC+ assumes zero development from young hitters, which historically is unrealistic for a roster built around players entering peak years.
If every contender loses playoff chances after losing three starters, that’s not a Red Sox weakness, that’s just baseball.
focuses heavily on wRC+, but the Red Sox aren’t built as a slugging lineup. Players like: Rafaela, Durbin, Mayer and IKF derive a large portion of their value from
elite defense, speed, positional versatility
That matters because WAR incorporates defense, not just offense. If Boston ranks highly in total projected WAR at certain positions, it means the model expects overall positive player value, even if raw batting stats look average. This is why their playoff odds remain strong despite modest hitting projections.
But really, what drives me nuts with these projection-only based opinions…Why assume young players won’t grow when projections already assume older players will decline?
TL;DR – The article leans too heavily on BAT X projections as if they’re outcomes instead of medians. Boston’s roster is built around run prevention, athleticism, and pitching depth, not pure offensive firepower. Crochet, Gray, and Suárez project as one of the best rotations in baseball, and improvements to infield defense directly support that style of team construction. Young players like Mayer, Rafaela, and Durbin are treated as risky “ifs,” but projection systems are historically conservative with developing hitters while already regressing veterans. Every contender becomes vulnerable if multiple top pitchers get hurt, so that’s not uniquely a Red Sox weakness. The playoff odds being around 60% suggest the underlying models already view this roster as legitimately strong even without elite wRC+ numbers.
I don’t think projection systems assume zero development from young players. They incorporate aging curves.
wRC+ weighs all aspects of hitting properly, whether it’s walks, singles, doubles, triples, HR, HBP. It’s not as if it can be fooled by misunderstanding contact hitters.
Defense, baserunning, and versatility absolutely have lots of value. But I wasn’t asked about the holistic contributions of these players, I was asked if the team has enough offense.
“Why assume young players won’t grow” – I don’t think that’s the assumption. More that a team cannot or should not count on it. Mayer was a top 20 prospect in baseball a year ago. A large percentage of such players are going to break out – at some point. I know that’s often not linear.
“Boston’s roster is built around run prevention, athleticism, and pitching depth, not pure offensive firepower.” – I don’t think we disagree on how the team is built, but the question was about the team’s offense. This is a team that SEEMS – based on existing evidence – to have an unimpressive offense barring breakouts.
“The playoff odds being around 60% suggest the underlying models already view this roster as legitimately strong even without elite wRC+ numbers.” – I didn’t suggest otherwise!
As acknowledged in the article – for a lot of teams, a major injury to one of their top five could knock them out of the playoffs.
As to how many teams with a 60%-ish playoff shot have 28% of their projected WAR tied up in three pitchers with injury profiles comparable to Crochet/Gray/Suarez – that’d be interesting to research but I felt a bit beyond the scope of the post.
I’d probably look at the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs and see what percentage of their projected team WAR comes from their top three SP.
As I stated elsewhere in the article, I think that same thing is a problem for the Braves. Similarly, the current Red Sox playoff odds are dependent on 544 innings from their top three SP (identical to what they provided in 2025), and I’m not sure that’s likely.
I remember the long ago days when Boston would bludgen teams with slow footed sluggers who couldn’t play D and never won anything.
Well, they did win, just not the 7th game, in 4 straight World Series.
Ted got hit in the elbow right before the series in 1946.
Tony C got hit in face in August, 1967.
Rice broke his wrist the last week of 1975.
Tom Seaver’s injury in 1986 forced them to start Nipper.
The curse was an injury curse.
Projections have little to do with team performance. They are strictly for fancy baseball league gamblers. So go pick your knows based on these mathematical geniuses telling you that some random guy will hit .277 with 11 home runs. Who cares? Certainly not baseball people, only fancy league gamblers. Are the Red Sox going to succeed this year? What does success look like? If they don’t win 95 games, they don’t win the World Series. There, and yes, I am a mathematical genius. So all I care about is 95 wins. Will they make it this year? Guess what? We will find out. In the meantime, pick your fancy league rosters and count your money. Good luck.
One player I have never heard mentioned as a potential Hall of Famer is “Indian Bob” Johnson. Began his career at age 27 and played just 13 seasons. What he did in those 13 seasons is pretty amazing however.
He is the only player in baseball history to have an OPS+ of 125 or better in EVERY SEASON OF HIS MAJOR LEAGUE CAREER FROM FIRST YEAR TO LAST. That in and of itself is amazing. Career OPS+ of 139. 8 years of 100 or more RBI. 10 of 90 or more. 6 years of 100 or more runs scored. 10 of 90 or more. 396 career doubles, 95 career triples, and 288 career home runs in just 13 seasons. More career walks than strikeouts. 7 time all star. Led league in putouts 6 times and assists 8 times. Gray ink of 161 when average HOFer is 144. JAWS shows him as the 20th best left fielder of all time despite playing just 13 seasons.
Obviously not a top tier HOFer, but certainly merits a good long look. Especially because he was a top player on terrible teams with absolutely no help around him. Hall of Famer Bucky Harris agreed: “That guy should have led the league both in hitting and runs batted in. But with the Athletics there was rarely anybody on base to drive home, and because there was nobody behind him in the lineup with any batting power, Bob had to keep hitting at bad balls.”
It’s tougher to get in with a 13 year career unless you were clearly a dominant player for most of those years. It also helps to be on a good team.
I agree with you, he was an excellent player.
Definitely tough. And while I don’t necessarily like to play the “he got in so why isn’t this guy in” game,…the below list are left fielders in the Hall who are markedly worse in just about every advanced metric when compared to Johnson:
Jim Rice
Heinie Manush
Ducky Medwick
Jim O’Rourke
Joe Kelley
Lou Brock
Ralph Kiner
Brock and Kiner are in for counting stat reasons. But their advanced stats are way worse than Johnson. And these are just the left fielders!
Here’s a fun exercise:
mlb.com/amp/news/2025-pecota-standings-projections…
Wonder what happened.
The Red Sox made a lot of good additions to the team. With the pitching and infield improved and competition available to make the infield players working hard for playing time, I think the Red Sox will do well.
Let’s see how things work out during Spring training. With Monasterio and Brendon Rogers working out in Florida, Mayer could see more time in Worcester if one of these two really shines. It is so good to see more experienced infield options available for the infield.