This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. I'll also give some brief thoughts on the MLBPA situation once they choose their new executive director.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).
It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
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Durbin, IKF, Romy G, Story, Narvaez and Rafaela are all going to have a worse offensive seasons.
Just another Red Sox hit piece from MLBTR.
For some real good insight on the Tony Clark situation, check out Nothing Personal with David Samson on YouTube.
Joe – USA Today is reporting it’s the wife’s sister, which makes it less worse for most. it’s easier to replace your wife than it is your brother.
Samson doesn’t seem to think that’s the tipping point. Though it’s going to be an awkward Thanksgiving for the Clark family this year.
Overall I really like the reply to the Red Sox question. I bet the 26th-ranked infield was a real eye-opener for those who believe the Sox will run away with the division, as was the wRC+ for the lineup.
I disagree about the possibility of another major addition to the infield, not unless it involves trimming a current Red Sox player’s salary from the payroll.
Romy looks like he could be out for a while. It would be a major bummer if Mayer gets sent down so IKF can play every day.
A major injury to Gray or Rafaela wouldn’t make a difference at all.
Fever, rankings at this point mean very little. Story’s defensive metrics would look better if not for September when he seemed to be tired. If he performs well, the infield defense will be solid.
I agree with you both. I don’t put much stock into projections and rankings this time of year. We have no idea how guys will look until we see how they look.
Marcelo has looked good enough in the minors to deserve a crack at breaking camp with a starting job. However if it turns out he needs more seasoning, he is better suited in AAA than the bench. If it comes to that then I think it definitely forces their hand and they’ll look for infield help at the deadline while probably trying to survive with some combo of Monasterio, Eaton, and IKF until then.
I don’t get why the projections are so down on Durbin, for a guy moving from a solid pitchers park to one of the most conductive environs for run scoring in all of baseball, I don’t see it. He seems like he is capable of doing enough to be around league average or slightly above, with a little boost from park factors. Plus as a guy more prone to putting the ball in play than he is to strike out, I think he will be a good fit for this lineup. Lot of issues with whiffers. He should not be one of them.
I understand the reticence about a lineup that needs to stack together three hits to score. That said, it does appear that the lack of pop can be overruled or omega by a solid approach at the plate from top to bottom.
But, that starting pitching better be solid all year, and looks like we’ll need health and lack of any regression with the bullpen.
My biggest fear is Cora botching the lineup (offensively and defensively) on a consistent basis because of the infield carousel Breslow has bestowed on him.
I dont think the playoffs are a lock, as stated in the article, chances are sitting around 60% right now.