Nationals, Josiah Gray Avoid Arbitration

The Nationals announced that they have signed a one-year deal with right-hander Josiah Gray to avoid arbitration. Gray will make $1.35MM in 2026, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That’s the same salary Gray made in 2025 while recovering from elbow surgery.

Gray will celebrate his 28th birthday in a little over a week. Once a notable prospect with the Dodgers, he came over to the Nationals in the 2021 deadline deal which sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles. That deal hasn’t worked out especially well for the Nats so far. Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz were hoped to be major building blocks in Washington but Ruiz has struggled to cement himself as a viable big league catcher. Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey, the other two guys acquired in that deal, are no longer with the Nats.

As for Gray, he has had some decent but not overwhelming results for Washington. He made 28 starts for the Nats in 2022 but with an unimpressive 5.02 earned run average. He dropped his ERA to 3.91 in 2023 but with less impressive numbers under the hood. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate were both subpar. It seems a fairly high 80.4% strand rate helped him keep runs off the board. His 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA were less bullish than his ERA.

He has mostly been on the shelf since then. He made just two starts in 2024 before landing on the injured list due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He began a rehab assignment in June but then was shut down with renewed discomfort. He required Tommy John surgery in July. He finished that year on the IL and eclipsed three years of service time in the process. That qualified him for arbitration for the first time going into 2025. He and the Nats agreed to a $1.35MM salary to avoid arbitration.

Gray spent the year rehabbing. He made three brief rehab starts in September, getting stretched out enough to throw 2 2/3 innings in the final outing, but he didn’t get back to the big league club. The way the arb system works, player salaries almost never go down. For guys who miss an entire season, they usually see their salaries hold steady. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that would happen with Gray and it has.

Much has changed since Gray has been out. The rebuild effort stalled out to the point that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez were both fired in July. They have since been replaced by Paul Toboni and Blake Butera respectively.

It’s unclear when the front office plans to return to contention but Gray is now down to two years of club control. His teammate MacKenzie Gore is also two years from free agency and has been in plenty of trade rumors. Infielder CJ Abrams has also been in trade rumors despite being controlled for three more seasons. If Gray has a strong first half in 2026, it’s possible he will also be in a lot of trade talk this summer as well.

Photo courtesy of Reggie Hildred, Imagn Images