Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have been very active on the free agent market. They signed top free agent starter Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal and also brought in Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce. The past few days have not gone in their favor, though. Toronto was one of the top suitors for Kyle Tucker and offered him $350MM over ten years before he signed with the Dodgers. They also hoped to re-sign Bo Bichette, but he opted for a short-term, high-AAV deal with the Mets yesterday.
After coming up short on Tucker and Bichette, it’s plausible the team could shift their focus back to adding more pitching. Lefty Framber Valdez remains available, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays met with him at the GM meetings back in November. Nicholson-Smith clarifies that the meeting was before Cease’s signing, but there was mutual interest between the two sides at the time.
Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after they signed Pete Alonso for $155MM over five years. The Giants are more interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer to add pitching via trade. The Red Sox also Met with Valdez in November, but they may no longer be a fit after signing Ranger Suarez and trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.
As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to fit him into the payroll. RosterResource has their 2026 payroll at $282MM and their CBT payroll at $310.5MM, which puts them over the maximum luxury tax line of $304MM. While their offer for Tucker would have carried a $35MM AAV plus a $31.5MM luxury tax bill, he may have been a special case as the clear top hitter on the market.
Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette, and Cease. He was predicted to land a five-year, $150MM deal on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury tax payor, the Jays would owe $27MM in tax penalties on that $30MM AAV, making Valdez a $57MM total cost in 2026 if they were to sign him. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, so he would cost the Jays their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With a projected rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Ponce, it’s possible that Valdez is both too expensive and more of a want than a need for Toronto.
Of course, none of that takes away from Valdez’s track record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth-best among qualified starters between Gausman and Cease. A lot of that success has come from Valdez’s suppression of home runs and exceptional groundball rates. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 is tied for fifth-best among qualified starters. His groundball rate of 60.0% is tops among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dipped below 54.2% in a full season.
He has also built a reputation for durability. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 are second-most in the majors behind only Giants ace Logan Webb. This past year was more of the same. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and an above-average 14.8% K-BB rate.
He did show some signs of wear as the season went on, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 innings in the second half. The last two months were especially rough. In August, Valdez only struck out 12.8% of hitters. In September and October, he became uncharacteristically homer-prone, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the positive side, his sinker remained a dominant pitch, with a run value of 15 according to Statcast as well as above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would take Valdez into his mid-30s, he should at least maintain a strong floor thanks to his durability and extreme groundball tendencies.
The market has been solid for pitchers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off an uneven walk year with the Padres and still got seven years from the Jays. Suarez just got five years and $130MM from Boston, matching our contract prediction in length and outdoing it by $15MM in value. Tatsuya Imai is perhaps the only starter expected to get a long-term deal who settled for a shorter pact (three years, $54MM with the Astros). Age aside, Valdez has a lengthy track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Why does Toronto need Valdez? No need to forfeit picks.
The interest in Valdez was almost certainly because they hadn’t signed Cease yet. can’t imagine they still interested, but who knows.
If they were to sign him, it would certainly mean dealing Berrios for whatever salary relief is possible at that point.
They loose Gausman next year, so adding now isn’t a totally silly idea with Cease already booked up.
Not sure there’s too much ‘need’ for either LAD or the Jays. More like, sprinkles on top of the ice cream sundae’s.
The Blue Jays and Dodgers are star studded teams.
The Dodgers are in their own stratosphere.
Poppin
The Dodgers are unquestionably the best team in baseball.
But I strongly disagree that the Dodgers are in “their own stratosphere”. Had the Dodgers not received three incredible innings in relief from Will Klein in extras, the Dodgers might have lost the WS to the Blue Jays in five games, and Yamamoto’s heroics might not ever have occurred.
Dodgers and Blue Jays are two behemoth heavyweights, with the Dodgers being a tip of the cap superior.
Dodgers have added Tucker and Diaz, and lost Kershaw and Kike.
Blue Jays have added Cease, Ponce, Okamoto and Santander, and lost Bichette and Bassitt
Why would they lose him? Wouldn’t they try and resign him? He’d be way cheaper I’d imagine and just as efficient.
International bonus pool and draft picks.
Is this about Gausman?
Can’t imagine he’d be cheaper, suspect he’ll get 2/60 ish next offseason.
Dodgers had two rotations in order to win the world series so it makes sense for teams to load up on starters to win it all.
Bellinger, Framber, Gallen and Suarez are the last 4 standing from the MLBTR top 50 list.
From the top 20 that is!
Both Suarez have signed, Robert to Atlanta and Ranger to Boston.
Eugenio Suarez is still out there…the third amigo!
Did not think Eugenio was a “top 20”, will have to go back and check.
Man tooth
You were right, the list had Eugenio in top 20 at 20, but not Robert at 21.
Eugenio Suarez is #20.
Maybe to sign him and then trade one of the other pitchers for position player(s).
Valdez is definitely a proven commodity and would be a postseason arm for sure. I’m more concerned about his character at this point given what he showed during struggles last season. Is an upgrade at 5SP worth the potential headache when things get tough?
@steelyd89
Good point!
@Steely
Valdez wouldn’t be your 5th starter. He would be an upgrade one almost everyone on that staff including Cease.
Gausman would remain at number 1.
I don’t see one of the top teams signing Framber. I guess the Yankees could if they strikeout on Bellinger, but the Yankees starting staff is pretty solid right now. My guess is that a team like Anaheim signs him to an unexpected deal. Baltimore could still be in the picture too, but something tells me it will be a non-competitive but aggressive team that signs him.
The Jays should be targeting Latin American players in free agency, they probably have an advantage in signing them.
@Pop
Because Latin players just lovvvvvvve stunningly cold winters??? ‘Splain Lucy!
Perhaps his point was that they don’t like ICE
@Ducey
BOOM!!
Plenty of ice in Canada.
@Ducey
Last I checked, players from Latin America, playing mlb baseball don’t have to worry about ICE because they’re lethal and likely, can bring their families over legally too. Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or on the spectrum? Which is it?
If you think being legal is all it takes for ICE not to target you, then you clearly haven’t been following things. I think you had it right the first time when you said “they’re lethal.”
Outside of Tampa, Miami, dbacks who lives in their home teams city in the offseason?
i live in my home team’s city year round. neither latin american nor a professional athlete though.
The Blue Jays are pretty set with their roster, really doubt they get Framber but the way they are flooring the accelerator it wouldn’t surprise me.
@Across
You feel comfortable not replacing Bichette? Which Springer can you count on for next season? The 2025 version or 2024? What is he, 3
Okamoto replaces most of Bo’s bat but keep beating that drum.
@Kodion
Ohhhh… my bad. So Okamoto is for sure to be a 20 homer/100 rbi middle of the order bat the same way Cody Ponce is sure guaranteed to be a stellar FOR starter too. Gotcha.
@Kodion
And please let me be clear. I’m not poo poin on the signings but it’s silly to NOT have some trepidation that those two signings are going to have the impact you want compared to guys who were in the majors last year.
The same way a .180 hitter replaces ‘most’ of a .300 hitter.
Knicks,
Cease and Ponce should be better than Bassitt and Scherzer, no doubt. And I’m not as big into Bichette as others and think Okamoto at least will be better defensively and that switch lines them up better from that standpoint. They also added Rogers to the bullpen, so I do think that team is already upgraded from their 2025.
Should they be finished they’ve done fine, but I feel like they aren’t.
No, but it begins with a 3
Well that offer to Tucker sounds real so i don’t think they think they’re set. I’m honestly surprised there wasn’t a quick pivot like the Mets did, though I still find the Mets pivot to be an odd fit.
That said, I do think that rotation is set.
No pivot because it wasn’t about improving it was specific to fit.
Think the Jays had decided they didn’t want Bichette back before the offseason even started.
Um, isn’t this kind of old news?
It’s a holiday weekend. Not much is likely going to be happening, especially after the two big signings this past week. Gotta give us something to read and talk about.
Isn’t Valdez problematic in the clubhouse? Not sure I’d want him.
Jays need a good SS or 2B.
Go after Donovan or even pry Correa from the twins.
the twins traded corea last year back to the astros.
The Twins already traded Correa. Don’t think they have the prospects to land Donovan and unless they’re adding a lefty power bat, I don’t see the point in making another move at this point.
My bad you’re right.
The jays definitely have prospects to land Donovan. Ricky Tiedeman or Arjun Nimmala should be enough if you added some lesser known prospects
Those two players together wouldn’t get you Donovan the 60’s popstar, if he’s still alive, let alone Brendan Donovan.
Cute but I beg to differ.
Really? You think a minor leaguer with a 40 hit tool, i.e who can’t hit, and a minor league pitcher on the DL for a year are going to land Brendan Donovan? LOL! The first will almost certainly never be a major leaguer and the second one deserves best wishes. If Toronto wants Donovan, the package would start with Yesavage and add (looking at pipeline here) Parker and King. Even that is unlikely to do it. The two guys this poster mentioned wouldn’t even qualify as throw-ins. Do some Jays fans not realize that other teams have minor league systems, most better than Toronto’s? Cards have an 18 year old SS named Padilla who’s a far better prospect than the Toronto one (50 hit tool) who is 11 on their list. They have 2 minor league lefties better than Tiedemann. Suggesting that one of those would land Donovan is goofy.
Guardians must be getting close to trading Jose Ramirez now. Only 3 years left on his contract. Aim for the stars…
You have not watched MLB in a long time. That’s either ChatGPT or you are pre-deadline mode. Also, you don’t need Donovan and Correa will only waive his no-trade clause for the Astrso.
It wasn’t chatgpt and I do watch mlb. I simply forgot, mb.
Framber to the angels, arte wants to change his image.
He’s going to the orange & black, but unfortunately, probably the one in Baltimore.
From your lips, to Elias ears.
…but Baltimore might be back in the ‘Confederate money’ era where free agents don’t like their offers. I dunno, been a long time since BAL signed a Free Agent pitcher…
Sugano and Morton were both FA signings
Assume — Assume I meant a TOR FA multi-year deal. But, yes, plenty of one year rental deals over last handful of years.
I can’t think of a true TOR SP they signed. 4 yr deals with Jimenez and Cobb didn’t pan out so well in the twenty teens…maybe they’ll surprise us and sign Valdez
Assumes — Well they did re-sign Mike Mussina to a…oh wait, yeah, still too soon.
Jimenez comes the closest to a TOR FA. Not a high bar.
I hope they clear that bar.
Valdez met with most teams during the winter meetings in an attempt to rehabilitate his image due to the throwing at the pitcher issue, among other things.
This was widely reported.
Doubt any team puts much negative stock into an isolated incident that got overblown. The man’s stats speak louder than that nonsense. Even if he did it intentionally there might be an unknown reason. Stole his gal ? Feel the heat !
So when every player asked about it says it was intentional and inexcusable, it matters to the team thinking about bringing him into the clubhouse, and onto the team in general.
He is a very good pitcher and likely will get paid well. But damage control was absolutely needed. Baseball is a small world at the major league level.
Have some links for when every player says it was intentional and inexcusable? Not defending him but want to make sure your point is simply not just your opinion.
@Another
I’m assuming you mean non-BJ players?
I watch MLB Network on TV, foul territory and talkin baseball on YouTube, where they have former players and also interview current players, along with having many friends who are still playing.
There are more, but those are the main sources. MLB Network actually had a segment on it during their winter meetings coverage.
Why non Jays players?
Exactly what I meant by overblown.
Big story, lot of opinions.
Still just one pitch. He’s thrown quite a few good ones too. He will get paid.
He will definitely get paid. He just had to address this issue with interested teams.
@another
because they would be the most informed to discuss what was said in the locker room, which is what he just implied. Who is “every player asked”?
So the players they interviewed not every player, they have a way they want their pieces to be presented. If a player didn’t think it was intentional the quote probably didn’t make the cut.
I really can’t believe there are a few people who try to write off that Valdez hissy fit as ‘an isolated incident” or “didn’t even happen”.
Any Astros fan will tell you Framber is a head case, and throwing at his catcher is not the only instance of him turning his anger on teammates.
He is an excellent pitcher, just a shame he is such a dick.
Aus,
As a Dodgers fan, I didn’t want to say that directly as it might be taken out of context.
But that’s something I have heard about him. And when other ballplayers actually say something about another player that could impact their earning power, it’s usually significant.
I hope Kirk has extra padding in his catchers gear.
@philliesfan215
Kirk has extra padding under his catchers gear..
Very witty.
Blue Jays “Met” with Framber…. Humm is that a clue that he is heading to NY?
If I was a Blue Jays fan with a Time Machine, this would be very exciting news
Okay, but it’s January 17th…
Bellinger
1 year 40 – 45 million.
Get er done
Future Dodger, I mean why even bother with 2026? Sox, Rays, Cards, Nats, Marlins, Guards all combined 427
Dodgers 429
Just the taxes they’re paying on Tucker alone is more than some payrolls.
Lockout the God damn season.
So true, Steinbrenner. It’s been fairly easy for the Dodgers to “sign everybody” as there are only about 3 teams trying to, and 3 more seem to be at their limit (phils, sawx & yanks). Many of he other 24 don’t seem to be trying much, if at all.
@Brisbane
So if teams aren’t offering Tucker 6 to 10 years at $40+ mil then they aren’t trying? Let’s say every team could afford $40 mil per. How many many could them afford to sign, in addition, a “Ohtani”, a “Betts”, a “Snell” and 18 other guys? And if the other teams CAN’T afford to sign Tucker and other to players then why would Tucker want to go a team that can’t afford to fill out the rest of the roster? So respectfully stop saying that.
Your maths are way off. Those teams combined are $643M.
White Sox not Red
I refuse to read any speculation regarding players and the Jays.
In other words…he’s signing with L.A.
Thank you very much for your attention to this matter
Let the store-bought Dodgers have Valdez and his baggage.
All meetings no signings. He’s prolly developing a complex by now. Poor table manners? Stinky feet?
Giants have been interested in every top player’s and have signed not of them,all they’d one is dumpster dive
Certainly Toronto doesn’t need him, but injuries do happen. They can sign him and stash one of their other guys in AAA or the bullpen or IR until they may need them. Also it keeps him away from other teams.
Disagree. The Jays need another starter absolutely. Bieber has ‘tired-arm’ and wont be ready for opening day, Berrios could be washed up, Yesavage – idk 120-150 innings cap?. It only leaves Gausman and Cease as your guys who will take the ball every 5 days
Maybe the Dodgers sign him. Who needs draft picks this year? And with like 12 starters they should be able to get through the season. Glasnow and Blake Snell usually misses 2 to 3 months a season anyway.