The Mariners announced that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Bryce Miller by agreeing to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. Miller will make a $2.4375MM salary in 2026, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. The club option is worth $6.075MM and has a $15K buyout, so Miller is guaranteed $2.4525MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The club option is voided if Miller finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting in 2026. He will still be controllable via arbitration through 2029 regardless of how the contractual situation plays out.
Miller was one of 18 players who did not have a deal in place when the arbitration filing deadline passed earlier this month. He just qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason as a Super Two player, meaning he will go through the process four times instead of the standard three. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $2.4MM salary. Miller filed at $2.625MM and the Mariners at $2.25MM.
A gap of just $375K is a drop in the bucket for a major league baseball club but it compounds when looking at the bigger picture. A player’s subsequent trips through arbitration see his salary grow as a percentage of where he started. Therefore, a $375K gap can actually lead to a swing of millions over three years, or four in this case.
Most teams these days adopt a “file and trial” approach, which means they cut off negotiations of one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from filing absurdly high numbers in an attempt to set out an aggressive bargaining stance. An arbiter can only pick the player’s or the team’s number, not a midpoint.
Even if a team does have a “file and trial” policy, exceptions are made for deals that are longer than one year, even if that extra year is an option. That gives the club a path to avoid a potentially contentious hearing while sticking to their policy, in a sense. A deal with an option can’t be used as a comparison point in future arb hearings as well, which is a factor.
Arbitration hearings are generally viewed as part of the business but occasional situations have cropped up where the relationships between a player and a team appeared to have been damaged. Three years ago, Corbin Burnes said as much in the wake of his hearing with the Brewers. Miller and the Mariners have staved off any possibility of that scenario by meeting roughly in the middle between their two filing numbers.
As mentioned, the club option is mostly a measure to avoid this agreement being used as a future comp. Even if it is voided or turned down, Miller would remain under club control through 2029 via arbitration.
There will now be no more than 16 hearings this year. Since the 18 players filed earlier this month, Cade Cavalli and the Nationals reached a new agreement and now Miller is off the list as well. Miller was the last Mariner in the arb class without a determined salary, so the club is now wrapped in that department.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images
Wow
Whoa
Woah
Pretty cool that you got Keanu Reeves and Joey Lawrence to reply to your comment. Well done sir!
Bryce filed at $2.625 mil. Mariners at $2.25 mil. $400,000 apart. I hope the Mariners just simply said we will do your $2.625 ask because this seemed a little petty from afar and Miller is still an amazing bargain at that price. Glad it got done!
This is a system that impacts 30 clubs for years to come. They aren’t being petty or mean to him and he understands that.
That’s just the difference in values for 2026… but whichever rate it ends up settling at will dictate the ranges possible in future arbitration for both sides
So the total increase in what he will cost the team is more than just the 400k unless this is his last year of arb as far as i understand it
That makes sense. Thank you
2.625 million for that talent is a bargain. Agree
I don’t fault either side. Miller is on track for 4 years of arbitration. It affects his other years, and other teams and players.
Its not a flexing contest, the numbers are just a simple, emotionless math equation with precedence, the only difference is how either side arrived at their numbers based on the metric each valued most.
To be fair to the Mariners, Miller did have an elbow injury that seriously impacted his performance in 2025. He missed about half a season and put up some really bad numbers. I wouldn’t have been surprised if the arbitrator sided with Seattle had it gone to court. Glad they agreed to meet halfway though, and avoided the ugly process.
BGoats- I hope that is true. Not sure how you know that, but I want that to be the case.
Kingdome- it’s not a secret, most people know how pre hearing arbitration works. It has clear rules, nothing nefarious.
Sounds good.
Miller is very good (at least against the Astros). Good for the Mariners, building a competitive core with guys like Ryan Sloan, Colt Emerson, Kade Anderson, Michael Arroyo, Cole Young, and more coming up.
Don’t forget Montes.
I said “and more”. I’m quite clear with Mariner top prospects for an Astros fan though.
Also I’m not forgetting Jurrangelo Cijinte, and I didn’t forget Montes. I remembered Celesten (though I had to see how to search it), Peete. I did forget Jonny Farmelo though so that’s kinda sad.
But no, I didn’t forget him, I just didn’t write his name down.
That you did.
And I said “don’t forget about Montes”
He is absurdly large and hard to forget.
A $15,000 buyout has to be a record low.
That’s if his arm falls off like it almost did last year. If healthy and effective he’s basically guaranteed the 6.075M next year.
Not really. Going from $2.6M to $6M would require a quite strong season. If he performs like George Kirby did last year (good not great), the team probably declines and goes through arbitration landing at somewhere in the $4.5-5.5M range.
I dunno, Kirby’s down year was actually still pretty good. His FIP (3.37)was almost a full run lower than his ERA (4.21), and he set a career high K/9 of 9.79. Miller’s not that far off from his rotation mates when healthy so 6M sounds about right for next year if he’s back to his normal stats or even improves. Especially so since recent salaries are growing at an exponential rate across the board. Also we don’t know what the new CBA will contain, that could affect player salaries almost as drastically as the contracts Ohtani, Tucker, and Soto signed over the last few years.
The FA deals don’t impact arbitration. The CBA could have a big impact though.
For context, Kirby went from $4.3M to $6.55M. Therefore, if Miller matches Kirby from last year he’d be in line to go from $2.65M to ~$4.65M (anymore would be surprisingly large raise based on prior precedent which is how arbitration works). That’s why I think he needs to have a very strong year for the option to actually be used (and the Top 5 AL Cy Young vote voiding it represents the most likely scenario where he’d be in line for more than $6m in arbitration anyways).
The option really is just there for the no 1 year deal rule teams have, rather than something either side should plan on being exercised.
I’ve seen a 7K buyout.
This contract says motivation all over it
It’s a fair deal for both sides. Keeps the costs certain across the next 2 seasons for the Mariners. If Miller goes back to his 2023-24 stats he makes the $6.075M automatically which probably would have been the case next year even if they didn’t make this arrangement.
If he breaks out and puts up an elite season, he could negotiate for more as the team option gets nullified. That’s his carrot on the stick.
However, if the arm falls off, the Mariners can get out from under him for the price of a used car.
Hey Tigers, THIS is how you negotiate with your pitcher!
$15K (as in Fifteen Thousand?) buyout?
How is the “file and trial” approach that’s done by the entire league not construed as collusion? There’s no written rule on this yet it’s the SOP of every team in the arbitration process.
The players union agreed to it. Probably as a concession so they can get other things they want in the CBA.
As far as I understand, the union didn’t agree to anything. There’s no written rule anywhere. It’s an unwritten policy that every single team follows. So, basically all 30 teams joined together to create this unwritten procedure they all strictly follow. This is the very definition of collusion.
Never saw a arbitration rookie gets club option.
In Jarren Duran’s first pass through arbitration last offseason, the parties settled for a 2025 salary of $3.85 million with an $8 million club option, or $100,000 buyout, for 2026. The Red Sox declined the 2026 option and the parties settled for a 2026 salary of $7.75 million plus performance incentives.